2013 Point Guard Prospects By the Numbers

In part two of our look at the "other" point guards in the draft, I examine each of their statistics and put some meaning behind their numbers. All stats are courtesy of hoop-math.com, a site dedicated to logging play by play data. Big thanks to them for all the work they do. These numbers aren't perfect because box scores aren't always accurate, but they do give you a pretty clear picture with the large sample size.

% of Shots at the Rim

Myck Kabongo - 53%

Ray McCallum - 45%

Lorenzo Brown - 39%

Nate Wolters - 30%

Shane Larkin - 28%

Pierre Jackson - 25%

Phil Pressey - 25%

Erick Green - 23%

Isaiah Canaan - 21%

Matthew Dellavedova - 12%

FG% at the Rim

Nate Wolters - 67%

Erick Green - 67%

Ray McCallum - 66%

Pierre Jackson - 64%

Shane Larkin - 62%

Lorenzo Brown - 61%

Myck Kabongo - 60%

Isaiah Canaan - 56%

Matthew Dellavedova - 53%

Phil Pressey - 45%

Assisted at the Rim 

Ray McCallum - 39%

Nate Wolters - 26%

Pierre Jackson - 24%

Lorenzo Brown - 22%

Erick Green - 21%

Matthew Dellavedova - 21%

Shane Larkin - 18%

Myck Kabongo - 14%

Isaiah Canaan - 13%

Phil Pressey - 7%

Analysis: Myck Kabongo gets to the rim as well as any player, but thats about his only move. He doesn't do a good job at controlling himself on the way to the basket and is in the bottom half in terms of FG% at the rim. 

You can also see that Ray McCallum got a lot of easy buckets at the rim, but did a good job playing without the ball in his hands. Detroit really pushed the pace and McCallum slid over to the off guard spot without a problem at times. On the contrary, you can see that Canaan, Pressey, and Kabongo are the 3 guys who NEED the ball in their hands the most to be effective.

If you're looking for the best finisher, it looks like a toss up between Erick Green and Nate Wolters. Green's numbers are especially impressive given the lack of talent around him and the competition he went up against. He still showed the ability to move without the ball and was able to finish in the lane thanks to his soft touch. 

Pressey, Canaan, and Dellevadova faired really poorly based of these numbers. That shouldn't be a surprise. All three guys were hesitant to go to the rim, thus limiting their chances, but they were still unable to be efficient. And while Canaan and Dellavedova make up for it with their outside shooting, its something Pressey will really need to improve on in order to keep defenses honest.

% of 2-pt Jumpers Taken

Erick Green - 49%

Lorenzo Brown - 39%

Phil Pressey - 37%

Nate Wolters - 35%

Matthew Dellavedova - 33%

Isaiah Canaan - 29%

Shane Larkin - 28%

Pierre Jackson - 26%

Ray McCallum - 24%

Myck Kabongo - 23%

FG% 2-pt Jumpers

Shane Larkin - 45%

Nate Wolters - 45%

Erick Green - 43%

Isaiah Canaan - 42%

Matthew Dellavedova - 42%

Phil Pressey - 38%

Pierre Jackson - 35%

Ray McCallum - 35%

Lorenzo Brown - 30%

Myck Kabongo - 12%

% of 2-pt Jumpers Assists

Pierre Jackson - 13%

Isaiah Canaan - 12%

Ray McCallum - 10%

Erick Green - 10%

Shane Larkin - 9%

Matthew Dellavedova - 4%

Lorenzo Brown - 3%

Nate Wolters - 3%

Phil Pressey - 2%

Myck Kabongo - 0%

Analysis: Once again, I think Nate Wolters and Erick Green measure up the best in this area. Both get a lot of shots off in the mid-range area and make a high percentage. And in the NBA, the have the size and feel for the game to continue to have success in the mid-range area.

Lorenzo Brown and Myck Kabongo were the two with the worst numbers. Neither did very well at the rim either, although both get most of their offense from inside the arc. That obviously brings up some questions with how they will be able to score in the NBA. Both will need to improve their pace of play as well of their jumpers to be able to play in the NBA.

Shane Larkin shot as well as anyone from the 2-pt range and probably has the best floater of anyone in the group. But his ability to get his mid-range jumper off and change speeds is still holding him back from being on the level of Erick Green and Nate Wolters. The same can be said for Pierre Jackson, although he didn't shot the ball as well the rest.

% of Shots from 3-pt Range

Matthew Dellavedova - 55%

Isaiah Canaan - 51%

Pierre Jackson - 49%

Shane Larkin - 44%

Phil Pressey - 38%

Nate Wolters - 35%

Ray McCallum - 31%

Erick Green - 29%

Myck Kabongo - 25%

Lorenzo Brown - 22%

3-pt FG%

Matthew Dellavedova - 40%

Erick Green - 39%

Shane Larkin - 39%

Nate Wolters - 38%

Isaiah Canaan - 36%

Pierre Jackson - 36%

Ray McCallum - 33%

Phil Pressey - 32%

Myck Kabongo - 30%

Lorenzo Brown - 27%

% of 3-pt Shots Assisted 

Myck Kabongo - 75%

Erick Green - 66%

Lorenzo Brown - 65%

Matthew Dellavedova - 62%

Ray McCallum - 51%

Pierre Jackson - 47%

Nate Wolters - 46%

Isaiah Canaan - 41%

Phil Pressey - 39%

Shane Larkin - 37%

Analysis: Matthew Dellavedova shows why he's in this discussion to begin with as he hit 3-pt shots at the best rate and also the highest volume. 

After him, the next 4 guys in terms of volume 3-pt shooting also happen to be the smallest. Pressey, Jackson, Larkin, and Canaan all get a lot of their offense from deep. Small guys have to be able to knock down shots consistently and for Pressey and Jackson there is a question with just how good of shooters they are. You also see why there is reason to question a guy like Jackson's shot selection and ability to run an offense. Despite his ability to break down a defense, he takes a lot of deep 3-pters outside of the flow of offense. While Jackson can be a dynamic scorer at times, he isn't consistently solid at just making the simple/right plays. That hurts his overall PG skills.

On the other end of the spectrum, its impressive how little Erick Green settles for 3-pt shots despite his success from there. Part of it may because of his shot release - his shooting mechanics have been developed for him to get mid-range jumpers off - not shoot from deep. But there is no doubt that he is one of the best shooters in this group.

Shane Larkin may not be a better shooter than Dellavedova, but he is certainly dynamic and may be the best at creating the shot next to Isaiah Canaan. He had the least amount of 3-pters assists, but still hit 39% at a high volume. Combine that with his 2-pt shooting prowess and there is little doubt he can light it up from all over the court. He's got some poor man's Steph Curry to him even though he's shorter and not QUITE the shooter.

Overall: The most balanced scorers look to be Erick Green and Nate Wolters. Both had a lot of pressure on them to score the ball, but still succeeded. Neither racked up the assists like other prospects, but they both have two of the better basketball IQs among the group. Their ability to score all over the floor and be a threat will make their passing game that much more lethal. And both do have the passing skills, they just weren't asked to show them that much at their respective schools. Erick Green will have a bigger transition to make as he played off ball more than any other prospect.

Phil Pressey, Myck Kabongo, and Lorenzo Brown all have question marks about their ability to score the ball and will have to show that they can hit jumpers more consistently. Pierre Jackson appeared to be on another level as those guys, but didn't show the balance and shooting ability you'd like to see from a guy marketed as a dynamic scorer.

Shane Larkin looked good according to these numbers, but it will be interesting to see how he does against better athletes who don't have to give him as much space. Once he gets to the NBA, he will need to find a way to shoot from mid-range. If he does, he has the makings of a poor man's Steph Curry.

Examining The PGs Outside of Burke, MCW, and Schroeder

One of the most intriguing positions this year is the lead guard position. The position is far from top heavy with just Trey Burke a lock for the lottery. It even lacks any other locks for the first round besides Michael Carter-Williams and CJ McCollom if you count him. What it does have is a lot of second round depth and a lot of competition. You can be certain that there will be another PG besides the ones mentioned above going in the first round, but the question is who? There are plenty of names to choose from and all of them have an argument to go within the first 30 picks. The second round could see quite a few point guards taken, which has not been a trend of the past couple of years. This draft lacks the surefire starters, but it could produce as many quality NBA rotational players since at least 2009.

Trey Burke is by far and away the best point guard in this class and is also arguably the safest pick in the entire draft. Depending on who wins the lottery, he could even go #1 overall. At the end of the day, I don't see a likely scenario where he slips out of the top 5.

Burke doesn't have the measurables or athleticism of your typical top 5 point guard. He might not even measure 6-0 and isn't ultra quick or explosive. But what he does have is an advanced knowledge of the game. Burke understands when to attack, when to pass, and how to get his teammates the ball where they need it. He runs the pick and roll like a surgeon and is always in complete control of the offense. He can get his points when needed, but he is also a great passer who makes his teammates better.

His predecessor, Darius Morris, took an entire year before he understood John Beilein's complex system enough to gain his trust. Thats why he was one of the most improved players statistically his sophomore season. Its just very hard to adjust to Beilein's offense as a freshman.

Yet Trey Burke was good enough to start his freshman year and allowed plenty of freedom from John Beilein. Based off that alone, you could tell that this kid was going to be special.

When I'm evaluating point guard prospects, I take a especially close look at their ability to control the tempo of the game, I also like to see how they handle adversity, run the pick and roll, change speeds, and balance scoring and passing. A point guard cannot disappear during the game. A point guard has to be the rock of the team. That is what I am looking for, guys with those traits. Trey Burke has all of that. 

There are other guys in this draft that lack these things, but have gotten by on potential. Myck Kabongo comes to mind immediately. You can even include Lorenzo Brown to an extent as his develop as a point guard isn't what you'd like to see from a junior. Michael Carter-Williams fits as well, although he's viewed on a higher tier as the rest of these guys. If you want to read more on him, check out my latest Stock Attack.

I want to focus more on the rest of the collegiate point guards in this piece and give a good overview on what to expect from each of them. All of these guys have a chance to stick in the NBA.

Nate Wolters

Strengths: Wolters is known for his scoring, but his biggest asset may be the way he attacks a defense. He knows how to read a defense and react. He understands angles and forces defenses to commit to him. He's a good passer who does an excellent job getting his teammates in good spots. He is also a very tough competitor and a gym rat. His jumper got better every year and he is constantly looking for ways to perfect it. There is a stigma around him that he's a just a shooter, but he's a very balanced scoring who looks to attack off the bounce more often than not. He should be very good in the pick and roll as he really has a good feel with the ball in his hands. In a lot of ways, he reminds me of Jeremy Lin. 

Weaknesses: Wolters is just a average athlete and will need to get stronger to play at the next level. He lacks the explosiveness to be a great finisher around the rim. He also struggles to stay in front of players, although he did a great job funneling Trey Burke into help defense in the NCAA tournament. Wolters has good height to help him overcome some of his shortcomings athletically, but below average length for his size. 

Shane Larkin

Strengths: Larkin is very quick and is nearly impossible to contain in the pick and roll. He's a pure shooter with a quick release. He also has good touch inside with a very reliable floater and is able to change speeds. He did a good job mixing up his scoring and his passing this year. He has excellent burst and can beat you in many different ways. He's very comfortable shooting off the dribble in either direction and its very tough to stop him. He does a good job getting his jumpers off, but he doesn't look to settle for just jumpers. Larkin is also a very confident and competitive player who doesn't get rattled.

Weaknesses: Larkin will measure out at under 6-0 at the combine most likely. And while he is very quick and fast, he isn't the most explosive player. He lacks a great build, although he is stronger and tougher than he looks. He also will have to continue to prove his passing abilities and show that he is a true point guard. His in between game also needs work. Defenses in the NBA won't be as afraid of his quickness, so he will have to deal more with tighter defense and NBA length. He didn't see much of that in college because his speed forced teams to go under screens and give him room. He also struggles to get all the way to the rim even though his floater game render that a moot point in college.

Erick Green

Strengths: Erick Green was arguably the best scorer in the country this season and a large part was due to his silky smooth jumper. He's very quick and had no problem creating space to get shots off and elevating over opponents. He has a great mid-range game and is effective in the pick and roll. Green also is lethal in transition where he forces a defender to stop him dead in his tracks if they want to prevent a bucket. Green has a high basketball IQ and is very unselfish, despite his scoring numbers. At Virginia Tech, they needed him to be a scorer so that is what he did, but it doesn't mean he can't run point guard. He just didn't have a good team around him. Finally, Green is a good defender who managed to play hard on that end of the court well. He is obviously very well conditioned.

Weaknesses: Green has spent his time at Virginia Tech being a scorer and hasn't had time gaining experience as a true point guard. He will have to learn the position as he goes in the NBA. Green also has a narrow frame and lacks strength. He could have trouble defending stronger guards. Green also may struggle against physical defense. His lack of success in college in terms of winning will also be something teams will look for answers to.

Phil Pressey 

Strengths: Pressey is a pure point guard who gets into the lane at will and finds teammates. He plays with a ton of confidence and with the sense that he is always the best player on the court. He is one of the few pass first point guards in college nowadays and possessing outstanding vision. He's a creative passer and is able to create plays from nothing. He does an excellent job pushing the ball in transition and can stop and pull up on the move. There is plenty of fight with Pressey and he wants to win badly. He always wants the ball in his hands with the game on the line.

Weaknesses: Pressey will have to overcome his size and his inability to finish at the rim at the next level. He also made some questionable decisions down the stretch of games this season. He tries to do too much a lot of times and turned it over more than any other PG prospect. Although he has great vision, his game management needs a lot of work. Pressey had a bit of a down year after most of his teammates left for the NBA last season. He's a solid shooter, but not great and will have trouble getting his shot off in the pros. Defense will also be hard for him and he didn't always play with good effort on that side of the ball.  He lacks the explosiveness or scoring instincts of other small guards who have been successful in the NBA as of late.

Pierre Jackson

Strengths: Jackson is a dynamic player, both in terms of scoring and passing. He was the first player since Jason Terry to lead a BCS conference in scoring and assists. Jackson is very quick and packs a lot of explosiveness in his small frame. He can get to his spots at will on the court, pull up and hit mid-range jumpers, and also knock down deep threes. Jackson also has no problem breaking down defenses and creating for others. He's a competitive, hard working player who doesn't have any glaring weaknesses. He projects as a Nate Robinson type instant offense off the bench, but with better court sense.

Weaknesses: Jackson is another guard who is undersized and may be closer to 5-9 than 6-0. He will struggle defensively and will also need to show a better effort there. Jackson will need to add some bulk to continue to play his style. He also needs to continue to work on his point guard skills by changing speeds and making the simple plays. He turns the ball over a little too much at this point.

Isaiah Canaan

Strengths: Canaan was one of the best scorers in college basketball thanks to his jump shot with unlimited range. He mastered the art of pulling up from deep in transition. He also is able to create his shot with his crossover and step back move from both 3-pt range and inside the arc. Canaan has a strong frame and plays with a chip on his shoulder. He is also very good shooting with his feet set. In terms of putting the ball in the basket, there aren't many guys that do it better than him.

Weaknesses: Canaan is undersized and not a pure point guard. He doesn't get off the ground very quickly. His shot release is also a little slow for a guy who projects as a shooter at the next level. Canaan looks to score more than pass and its not clear whether he has the ability to make plays for others. This year he was able to show improvement in terms of changing speeds. It is also a question of whether he can defend. Canaan struggled to answer many of these questions last summer during skill camps.

Myck Kabongo

Strengths: Kabongo has very good length and quickness for a point guard, enabling him to be a pesky defender and come up with plenty of steals. Kabongo has no problem breaking down defenses and getting into the paint, where he is a solid drive and dish point guard. He has good handles and has budding leadership skills. Kabongo also is a high character guy who has been through a lot in his life. The general skills that Kabongo possess are what many seek in a point guard - high character, defense, pass first, quickness, and the ability to get by defenders.

Weaknesses: Kabongo never put together a good season in college and was suspended for his relationship with a NBA agent. While he seems like a good kid, many believe he is being misled by those around him. Kabongo also has poor mechanics on his shot and lacks a great feel for the point guard position. He only plays at one speed and dominates the ball. He's also turnover prone and needs to get stronger. His ability to run a team will need major work and he'll likely have to spend a year in the D-League at least.

Ray McCallum

Strengths: McCallum turned it over less than any other point guard with the potential to get drafted, despite being a huge part of his teams offense. He is the coach's son and plays like one. He plays under control and at a steady pace. He is able to get all the way to the rim, but also has a developing mid-range game. McCallum is a very good passer as well, although this season he took on the scoring role. Part of the reason his turnovers were so low was because he took a lot of quick jumpers and didn't attempt to force any drives or passes. McCallum is deceptively quick and does a good job running the pick and roll. He is also a solid athlete. 

Weaknesses: McCallum improved his jumper this year, but still shot a fairly low percentage from the 3-pt line. His jumper looked good, however, and he had to take a lot of tough contested shots. There is also a question of whether McCallum is dynamic enough as a player. He doesn't do anything at an elite or even very good level. McCallum also has short arms and can have trouble finishing at the next level. He didn't play against the best competition, but should look better when he is surrounded by better teammates and able to play as a more tradition PG.

Lorenzo Brown

Strengths: Brown possesses very good height and vision for a point guard. He is able to break down defenses and is crafty with his passing and ball handling. He has made the transition from a high school combo guard to a success college point guard while racking up plenty of assists. Brown also does a very good job when he is able to push the ball in transition and has good foot work en route to the rim. He is able to finish in a variety of ways. He's a fluid athlete who uses his long strides to his advantage. He can create his own shots pretty easily thanks to his size, ball handling, and creativity.

Weaknesses: Brown is still learning the nuances of being a point guard and was the leader of a very inconsistent and underperforming North Carolina State team. He is also a poor shooter who saw his shooting numbers drop to record lows this season. Brown also can be too crafty for his own good - often making shots at the rim tougher than they should be and trying to get into seams where he can't fit through. He doesn't do a good job drawing fouls despite his slashing ability, which is a result of him trying to avoid contact. He lacks the strength to finish with contact. He is also old for his class and will be 23 by the time the 2013-14 NBA season kicks off.

Honorable Mention: 

Matthew Dellavedova

Dellavedova is an outstanding shooter and combines that with great size and strength. He has proven he can run a team both in college and at the Olympic level. His experience shows on the court and he passes over the defense very well. Dellevadova knows how to use the pick and roll to his advantage, although he rarely gets to the rim. He's an underrated prospect who gets dismissed because he isn't a very good athlete.

Conclusion:

I believe that Pierre Jackson is the most NBA ready point guard of this group to fill a role. He fits perfectly into the Nate Robinson/Isaiah Thomas role. However, I don't see him ever being a consistent starter which is why I'd consider taking a few other guys over him.

Right now Nate Wolters, Erick Green, Ray McCallum, and Shane Larkin each have a better chance than Jackson of developing into a starter. Each of them also have question marks that could have them glued to the bench or out of the league in a few years. But this is a very solid group and I believe at least one will turn into a NBA starting point guard. Green is the best shooter of the bunch and also looks to be the best defender. He is also able to score at all three levels, has high character, and NBA level quickness/explosiveness which is why I currently have him ranked higher than anyone else on this list.

But McCallum and Wolters are both intriguing guys who could end up being better once they are surrounded by better teammates. They both have very good point guard skills, but were asked to be more of scorers for their teams. While they aren't typical "upside" guys, they could surprise people who aren't familiar with them.

Larkin doesn't have the size of the other three nor does he have the experience. His transition to the NBA looks to be a little rougher which is why I think he shouldn't get selected until Round 2. His upside is also kind of a mystery. The other guys have more defined roles as true point guards and are more ready to contribute which is why I believe they should get some consideration as possible late first round picks.

Finally, we have Isaiah Canaan, Phil Pressey, Myck Kabongo, and Lorenzo Brown. For Kabongo, I see too big of a question mark to invest a first round pick on. He won't be ready to contribute for a few years and will need to grind in the D-League to ever be successful. An unguaranteed contract has his name written all over it.

Canaan doesn't have the point guard skills to ever start in the NBA and if you want a scorer off the bench, Pierre Jackson is a better bet. Canaan to me seems like a guy who will likely be out of the league in a few years. 

Pressey and Brown quite frankly, haven't impressed me. Pressey is a pass first point guard who makes questionable decisions. He can't shoot, defend, or finish inside. Brown failed to lead his college team and is old by NBA draft standards. He has a lot of holes in his game for a 22 year old and the likelihood of him fixing those holes aren't great, especially considering he took a step back this season. 

12/20/12 Games to Watch and a Recap of Last NIght

I didn't get a chance to recap the North Carolina State/Stanford game yesterday, so I'll do it now since it was a notable game.

Lorenzo Brown was the "good" Lorenzo Brown that we saw last year. He finally got the better of another good guard - Chasson Randle being the victim. Brown did a great job finding the hot hand early on - finding Scott Wood in position to hit 5 3-pters in the first half. After Wood cooled down, Brown looked for his own offense in the second half and finished with 24 points on 15 shots.

Brown did a nice job pushing the ball in transition. His craftiness with the ball allowed him to navigate through traffic at a controlled pace, using his size to help shield the ball, and hit an array of floaters in the lane. He also showed the Eurostep a couple of times. The eurostep, his size, his craftiness, and his touch help make him a very good scorer inside when he is aggressive.

Brown is not the only NC State player who uses to floater to score in bunches - all three of Rodney Purvis's field goals came off floaters and TJ Warren has a very good floor game as well. Purvis was key in the first half before Brown took over and was able to blow by Stanford's slowish guards at ease. I cant think of another team that uses the floater as well as the Wolfpack.

Inside, CJ Leslie really struggled in the first half. He was bullied by Dwight Powell (who scored 15 first half points) and completely out of sync offensively. He airballed a long fadeaway, turned it over on a lazy pass, and took multiple bad shots on out of control drives. In the second half, some of his wild plays started to actually fall for Leslie and he finished with 16 points. Still, its been the same story with Leslie for years. He has awful offensive possessions and then shows the flash of the spectacular. The bottom line is he doesn't have anything reliable on the offensive end. His jumper is inconsistent and his awkward, out of control drives are more style over substance. He is the next Andray Blatche.

Meanwhile, Richard Howell continues to impress. He was always the garbage man for Leslie, but has taken over - for now at least - as the Pack's leading scorer. He is still mainly a garbage man, but he's terrific at his role. Howell is so tough inside finishing through contact, has good footwork, and surprisingly quick moves to the bucket. Unlike Leslie, he has efficient ways to score. On top of that, he's a better rebounder and worlds better defensively. He's certainly the better player at this stage and Leslie's "prospect" label is wearing off. When this season is over, I wouldn't be surprised to see Howell be selected OVER Leslie in the draft.

In last night's action, there was a good chance to see three first round power forwards in Jackie Carmichael, James Michael McAdoo, and Anthony Bennett.

Carmichael was huge in a slight upset at Dayton. He does a great job moving his feet on both sides of the ball and being active. He is a big guy, but moves lightly on his feet and is surprisingly explosive. He draws charges and guards the pick and roll with expertise. Offensively, he does a great job sealing off defenders on his back, has patience in the post, and has great footwork. He has soft touch around the rim and can step out and hit the jumper. With his skillset and BBIQ, Im not sure he is even capable of a bad game. He had 25 points and 14 rebounds last night.

Illinois State actually almost lost the game even though they were up 7 with under two minutes left. In a puzzling move, Illinois State called a timeout while up 4 points with under a minute to play. At the time there was 4 seconds left in the shot clock, but Carmichael had the ball in post and looked capable of getting a good shot. Instead, the timeout was called by the coach and the turned it over try to get the ball inbounds. If you call a timeout in that situation, you better have a great inbound play in mind. That play was a possible 4 point swing and gave Dayton a chance for a game winner in the final seconds. Illinois State got lucky to hold on.

For UNLV and Anthony Bennett, they had a date with Northern Iowa and looked great early. Anthony Bennett dominated on offense early - hitting a couple of threes and looking like a guard in transition. Its amazing how well he plays in transition at his size. He had a play where he grabbed a rebound, brought it up with the defense already set, yet still was able to take it all the way into the lane for a lay-up. He made it look easy.

And while Bennett had some jaw dropping plays, he didn't take advantage of Northern Iowa's size inside. His points came on jumpers and off the dribble. The problem with Bennett is he doesn't handle physical play much. He can out-muscle guys, but when the defense pushes back, he backs down. It happened last game against UTEP and UNI followed the same plan. Bennett was quiet in the second half mainly because he couldn't get good post position.

And defensively, Bennett played terrible post defense and allowed smaller UNI players to rebound over him. His help defense has been a problem this year, but he did have 3 solid blocks in attempt to block the rim.

From the surface, this looked like another Bennett statement game and he really did have some impressive stretches - specifically in the first half. But there are still things that hold him back from being an ideal top 5 selection.

James Michael McAdoo struggled again and the North Carolina Tar Heels ended up losing to Texas. Texas was too physical for UNC and were able to hit shots from outside. Like Jackie Carmichael, McAdoo has good footwork, explodes quickly, and a good feel for the game. Unlike Carmichael, McAdoo plays soft, rushes decisions, and takes low percentage shots. McAdoo was pushed around all game and unable to mix it up inside against the Longhorns bigs. McAdoo has a nice ceiling, but he won't reach it if he doesn't show more toughness and strength. Hes making the game harder on himself.

Games to Watch Tonight

Lehigh at North Texas 8pm

The big game on tonight's schedule is North Texas vs Lehigh which tips at 8pm. By last count I saw, 54 NBA scouts had requested credentials to tonights game - easily the most scouts congregating for a single game (no tournament) this year. All the buzz is about Tony Mitchell and CJ McCollom, two low-major players who have a shot at being selected in this years lottery.

Another reason all the attention will be in Denton tonight is because there aren't many other good games. Duke, Michigan, UCF, Memphis, and Arkansas all play and are worth checking out, but none of the games offer much to see. 

Preview of Tonight's Action

Tonight marks the start of the ACC/Big Ten Challenge and with all the conference re-alignment, maybe one of the last as its going to start getting hard to keep track of which teams are actually in these conferences.

Games to Watch:

Indiana vs North Carolina 9:30 ESPN

Why not get this one out of the way first? James Michael McAdoo vs Cody Zeller. Two guys that could use a big game to get momentum moving in their direction again. At this point, McAdoo is facing questions about his post skills while Zeller has detractors saying he can't create separation. Both do have nice feel and footwork in the post and that should be on display tonight.

Zeller will have to deal with an athletic North Carolina frontline and also Joel James' monster frame. Don't expect Zeller and McAdoo to be matched up a lot.

McAdoo will likely be on Christian Watford most of the time, a guy he should be able to back down a little. McAdoo was quoted in SI today saying he has been focused more on footwork instead of trying to back down anyone, but tonight would be a good night to try to show some toughness against Watford.

Watford will drag him out to the perimeter and force McAdoo to show his perimeter defense skills. Some actually think McAdoo can play some small forward at the next level, but I highly doubt it.

I'm also interested in seeing Reggie Bullock against Victor Oladipo, two energy small forwards I am really high on. Both play great defense and run the court, but their offensive games couldn't be more different. It will be interesting to see how they compete against each other as they should cover one another.

Finally, it may be Jordan Hulls and PJ Hairston that steal the headlines from the big names. Hairston has came on strong as of late and always looks to shoot when he's in. Hulls is extremely tough and a great leader - one of the best in the country. He's slowly developing a reputation as Indiana's go to guy in big games and could steal the headlines.

North Carolina State vs Michigan 7:30 ESPN

Leading the night off for ESPN will be a matchup that may actually feature more future pros than its nightcap. We have Trey Burke vs Lorenzo Brown, both of whom could be drafted in the first round. Lorenzo Brown has already been abused by the younger Marcus Smart this season and can't afford to get worked again. It may be in the cards though, as Burke has been carving up defenses since he's stepped on campus. With the emergence of other scorers, Im interested to see if Burke starts to vanilla down his game more and turn into more of a facilitator. He can dominate the ball at times.

On the wings, Hardaway Jr is coming off one of the best stretches of his career and Glenn Robinson III looks like a real stud. Hardaway will see a lot of freshman Rodney Purvis, who has been one of the bright spots for NC State early on. He has played with great energy and should present a solid test for Hardaway.

Glenn Robinson III may get a chance to step up into a bigger role tonight if he draws Scott Wood on offense. Robinson has taken a back seat to Michigan's backcourt, but has been very efficient in his chances. A chance to see Robinson III take advantage of Wood in an increased workload would be nice.

Robinson may also see some TJ Warren who has joined Purvis as the lone bright spots for NC State. Warren just has a knack for scoring and getting easy baskets around the hoop. He also has great touch on his jumper. He's one to watch out for down the road.

Inside, Michigan has a very smart frontcourt that could use CJ Leslie's aggressiveness against him. Jordan Morgan and Mitch McGary move their feet well and understand defensive positioning. Leslie could be in for a long night. Richard Howell is usually solid.

One thing to watch for is Michigan's pick and roll defense. They are very aggressive in their hedging and take the ball out of the ball handlers hand, but leave themselves vulnerable to other open players. NC State has shot 3s at a better than 40% clip this season thanks to Scott Wood and Rodney Purvis. If Lorenzo Brown runs the point like he should (which he hasn't) and finds the open man off of picks, NC State has a chance at the upset.

This is a big game for Brown who has found his stock dropping quickly so far. He's talented but has shown terrible decision making and a lack of leadership. From an upperclassman, that is unacceptable.

Minnesota vs Florida State 7:15 ESPN2

Minnesota vaulted themselves into the top 25 after a solid showing in the Battle 4 Atlantis. Florida State has started to play better after opening the season with an ugly loss to South Alabama. Both teams can get after it on defense and it starts with Michael Snaer and Rodney Williams, two of the better players in the country.

And while they can really get after it on defense, its the offensive end where they will need to show what they can do tonight. Snaer has been great at getting to the line all year and I'd like to see him do it against a strong perimeter defense and the always lurking Williams. For Rodney, Id just like to see him continue to hit jumpers and attack aggressively from the perimeter. We know his skills aren't great, but he's done a nice job putting his athleticism to use this year.

There are some other marginal prospects in this game - Ian Miller, Andre Hollins, Austin Hollins, and Okaro White - and they all should have some chances to go up against each other. Andre Hollins just dropped 41 points on Memphis and he should be over the hangover of elated-ness that caused him to only score 8 against Stanford.

Also, Trevor Mbakwe will be continued to be monitored to see how his athleticism is coming along. He's coming off the best game of his young season.

Also check out Maryland's Alex Len take on Northwestern and Pittsburgh and Steven Adams against Howard. Maryland has been playing well and should get the win, but Alex Len hasn't had another game that has rivaled his opening performance against Kentucky.

Adams received criticism for his recent play, but its all part of a process. Adams wasn't any worse than he was when I wrote about him at the start of the year, he just went up against some tougher competition. He actually has been showing noticeable improvements each game.

His 13 points in 24 minutes last game against Delaware are misleading as most of his points came in the final minutes, but the confidence that it gives him could be big. Adams was able to hit a jumper and finish in transition and off of a pick and roll. He showed the flashes that make his potential so mouth watering. Facing Howard tonight is good timing, as Dixon can use this game to focus on building off that confidence Adams gained from last game. I expect tonight to be the best chance to see what Adam's is capable of doing so far. He is going to continue to get better each game. His stock is fine.  

NC State too much for the Nittany Lions

It was our first look at the Wolfpack's loaded team this year, a team suddenly in the national spotlight as the favorite to win the ACC. The Wolfpack have a roster loaded with talent including Rodney Purvis, Lorenzo Brown, CJ Leslie, TJ Warren, Tyler Lewis, Scott Wood, and Richard Howell. Ok, thats pretty much their whole roster, but thats what is so impressive - they have big names at every position.

The Wolfpack are certainly the most talented team in the ACC, but how is their leadership? How about their consistency? Their experience level? Their maturity? The ability to take care of the ball? Their ability to close out games? Who can honestly say they trust them to beat Duke in a do or die game?

Last year, they had Duke up against the ropes with a 16 point halftime lead. The wheels came off in the late stages though, and the Blue Devils won by 5. This NC State team is a year older at the core - CJ Leslie and Lorenzo Brown - but are they wiser? 

In the first test against, Penn State, Lorenzo Brown and CJ Leslie both showed plenty of talent but an unhealthy obsession with flash. Leslie is not the same careless player he was up until last year, but he still makes dumb mistakes and tries to do too much. And he settles too much for jumpers and continues to fail to box out consistently on defense.

For Brown, he makes hard plays look easy a lot of the times. Both guys are able to make some spectacular looking plays. Both also fail to make easy plays consistently. We saw it again tonight with Brown. Too many no-look passes and him trying to thread the needle in between multiple defenders. Too many times he tried to make a play out of nowhere instead of looking to set up sharpshooter Scott Wood with an easy jumpshot. The Wolfpack have one of the nation's deadliest shooters yet fail to utilize him consistently.

Brown got a chance to play off the ball some too, where he can be effective. Tyler Lewis though, looks like he will need some time before he adjusts to the college game. When the game is on the line, the ball will be in Lorenzo Brown's hand to make good decisions. NC State will be able to run plenty of teams off the court, but ultimately they will have to face the likes of Duke and beat them in close games while executing their halfcourt offense and managing the clock.

Gottfried was able to get Leslie to change his attitude when he took over the team, but he still has plenty of work to do with this team. I ranked Lorenzo Brown high on my PG rankings with the assumption that he will tone down his game in the NBA. It may be too big of an assumption to make at this point. He has first round talent, but does he have the mental capacity to run a pro team?

And does Leslie have it in him mentally to survive on his own in the NBA? He's a guy at this point who needs to find the right situation in the NBA. In a lot of places, he will fail.

On a more positive note, Rodney Purvis hit some jumpers and was able to create off the dribble. He can drive and kick as well as take it to the rim. The future of the shooting guard position is looking up with guys like Sulaimon, Goodwin, Purvis, Shabazz, and Smart. 

Other notes:

- Eric Bossi said TJ Warren has a bit of Antoine Walker in him. Interesting to say the least. Warren lit of the hoop with 22 points. 

- For Penn State, Tim Frazier is a solid player. He is a better pro prospect than Talor Battle, his incumbent was. Frazier operates out of the pick and roll most of the time and has a nice crossover. He can get into the mid-range area where he has a quick floater he can get off. He also knows how to change speeds and is a crafty finisher at the rim. Frazier had too much of a load to handle tonight though, and shot 6-20 from the field.

- For me, Richard Howell is nothing special. Some view him as an early second rounder, but I'd much rather have a guy like Jarnell Stokes. Howell has a solid mid-range jumper and rebounds well, but he's a guy who doesn't do anything well enough to find a spot in the league. He has carved out a nice role on NC State capitalizing on Leslie's arrant shots. 

Scouting Report: Lorenzo Brown

Height: 6'5''
Weight:  180
Bday: 8/26/1990

Team: North Carolina State
Class of 2014

Lorenzo Brown made steady improvements to his game last year, partly due to Ryan Harrow's transfer and Mark Gottfried's trust in him to call him the Wolfpack's starting point guard from day one. Lorenzo Brown came into NC State in the same recruiting class as Harrow, another prized point guard recruit, but he was supposed to show up to Raleigh a year earlier. However, grades forced him to attend a year at prep school. Him and Harrow shared point guard duties and both had their moments, but ended up going separate paths. Both paths could cross again as the two of them are potential first round picks in the 2013 draft.

This year, Lorenzo Brown is joined by an excellent recruiting class, including Rodney Purvis, and a great returning core including Richard Howell, CJ Leslie, and Scott Wood. After making the tournament in the first time in 5 years, they now look to be one of, if not the favorite in the ACC.

Brown will have a ton of talent around him, but also a lot of expectations. No longer are they going to sneak up on anybody. His role may also be a little different. With graduate student Alex Johnson gone and Rodney Purvis seemingly taking his place in the lineup, Brown is going to be asked to act even more like a point guard and less like a scoring guard.

Brown has shown plenty of potential in doing that and has improved greatly. He came to North Carolina State as a combo guard whose career could go either way - shooting guard or point guard. Fortunately for his NBA stock, point guard is looking like a good bet for him now. He went from 5 assists per 40 minute last year to over 7 his sophomore season.

As a point guard, Brown exhibits great passing skills. He is able to get into the lane without a problem and does an excellent job setting up his teammates. When he drives, he has a pass first mind set and is very creative at delivering the ball. Brown doesn't simply kick the ball out to shooters, Brown likes to drive and dish down low to set up easy shots. He passes it into the post, finds cutters, and sets up teammates for good looks in the mid-range area.

Brown is his best at full speed. When he is asked to bring the ball up, he loves to get a running start and be on the attack before he even crosses halfcourt. When Brown gets you back pedaling, you will be hard pressed to stop him. Brown also likes to get a head start on his defender because he does struggle at times when he is pressed. His handle, while very crafty, tends to be lose. He does get the ball stolen cleanly from him at times when he has a defender at his hip pocket.

Brown's ball handling ability overall though, is what defines him as a player. his crossover allows him to change directions with ease. He is a natural dribbling the ball with either hand and his crossover is effortless yet extremely effective. He uses it all the time and it never fails to create space. He loves to use it to get in the mid-range area where he will look for a teammate first, but does have a solid mid-range game for himself to fall back on. His combination of ball fakes, hesitations, and effectiveness of his crossover make him very hard to stay in front of once he gets going. His ball handling ability allows him to virtually get where he wants on the court. He has improved his pull up jumper since his freshman season, resulting in an increased shooting percentage from 41% to 45%. He also has a very pretty floater that he can shooter of any ACC guard due to his elite size. Thanks to his size, Brown also can use his body to shield off defenders and he knows how to do this well. His long strides are also a plus.

Brown is also a bit of a throwback in the sense that he will take advantage of his size by posting up smaller defenders. He generally looks to pass out of these situations, but has flashed a turnaround jumper as well. Some of the things he does offensively remind me of Andre Miller.

Like Miller as shown late in his career, he can play off ball. Brown has a history of playing off the basketball and it shows. He does a great job getting open and also plays in a well coached NC State offense. He is great running around screens, due to his fluidness, slim frame, and terrific top end speed.  He has a great feel off the ball - cutting to the hoop when the opportunity arises.

In transition, Brown can take it all the way to tthe hoop without anyone being able to stop him. I think its hard to understand his speed since he is a taller guy, but he really gets from end to end in a hurry.

Physically, Brown has excellent size and I believe he is a legit 6'5''. He was noticeably bigger than most PGs and SGs in the ACC. His frame right now is slender. Speed wise, he is very good at full speed. He has a long, quick first step and his quickness is enhanced by his deception and ball skills. His lateral quickness suffers on the defensive end. Brown isn't explosive at the hoop, but will finish with dunks from time to time. He isn't terrible at finishing with contact, but strength is definitely something he needs to improve.

Brown has just about everything needed to be a point guard, but the majority of the questions about his game still center around whether or not he can be a point guard full time. Some believe he is just a really good ball handler who can pass, but does not exhibit the kind of intangibles needed. To me, he does have some AAU characteristics to his game, but I think he generally does a good job of picking his spots, playing under control, and making his teammates better. He does need to do a lot better job at control the tempo of games, so they don't blow 20 points leads like they did last year.

The things I am more worried about his his finesse game and ability to deal with a defender up in his face. Brown does a good job avoiding these situations, but pro scouting won't fail to capitalize on his loose handles. In college, he uses ball screens to initially get him open and doesn't bring the ball up regularly. He also likes to reset himself by taking a few steps back in order to separate from the defender. In the NBA, he may benefit from the lapse defense, but he will initially have to prove he can handle to pressure. Right now, that may be the biggest thing holding him back as a point guard. His intangibles are OK. He has a good feel for the game and makes his teammates better. He stays interested in the game and shows some leadership abilities. I dont generally like a point guard to fail to qualify for college academically, but it is what it is. Its something to be considered. Also, Id like to see him in more pick and roll opportunities. We know he can come of screens very well without the ball, but NC State doesn't do enough on ball screens. To be honest, most of the time Brown doesn't need them but in order to be an NBA point guard you have to excel in the pick and roll game. Brown's game should translate, but Gottfried's offense is more based around motion and cuts.

His finesse play is more worrisome on the defense end. Offensively, Id like to see him be stronger and more explosive at the rim, but his floater and passing ability make it so he can get around it. Defensively though, he treats screens like bombs and stays far away from them. Brown creates way too much work for himself on defense, as he refuses to fight through screens and instead tries to rely on his speed to run around everything. He switches on screens whenever he can. Brown's refusal to battle through contact will be an absolute death sentence if he continues to keep it up. He needs to add weight to his frame, but even so, Brown shouldn't be avoiding contact like he is in the college game.

His finesse style carries over into passiveness on the defensive end as well. Brown can be a good defender for stretches - I watched him give Austin Rivers a hard time for an entire half - but for the most part, he is very easy to drive past. He doesn't slide his feet well, a result of him most likely being able to get away with depending on his pure speed in his younger days. At a legit 6'5'', Brown has to put some effort in staying lo. Its not the easiest thing for a man of his size to do, but it is necessary. His size does come in handy in contesting shots and he also has good length. He is able to guard both backcourt positions.

Shooting wise, Brown improved his 3-pt % from 30% to 35%. He is good with his feet set and is getting more comfortable with his step back jumper. He isn't fully comfortable shooting off the dribble unless he has time to gather himself. When he does, he shows nice touch mid-range. I question his range out to the NBA 3-pt line and doubt he will be much more than a "keep you honest" kind of shooter from 3. His free throw percentage sits in the low 70s.

Overall, Brown has one best skill to physical attribute combinations out of all the point guard eligible to be drafted. Playing for a top 10 team this year, there will be a spotlight on him and very hard criticism on how he runs a team. He has plenty of talent around him, so he will be expected to act like a point guard and run the team, making sure everyone gets their touches. I want to see Brown bring the ball up more this year and deal with pressure. He needs to continue to improve his shooting and show a new found desire on defense. Proof of toughness would be welcomed.  Most of all, Brown should be the leader of this NC State team.

A good showing this year will be good enough to get him in the first round, but his ceiling can be as high as the lottery. Besides Myck Kabongo, I am not sure there is a point guard in this draft with more potential. He likely comes out this season because he is going to be 22 this month. His age does cause some concerns - I would be much more willing to consider him a lottery guy if he were only 20. Still, Brown is a very intriguing point guard to monitor this year. You will be hearing plenty more from him.