Showing posts with label Hurricanes. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hurricanes. Show all posts

Wednesday, May 1, 2013

Scouting Report: Shane Larkin

Shane Larkin was originally a high level mid-major recruit being courted by the likes of Depaul, George Mason, Colorado, and Boston College. He was seen as a potential face of a team, a point guard who could take over games with his scoring, but his short stature prevented him from getting looks from the top schools in the country. George Mason was perhaps the top school on his list, as Larkin was a big fan of Jim Larranaga, but Coach L decided to take another guard over him instead of waiting on Larkin to make a decision. That resulted in Larkin ultimately choosing Depaul, but he asked out of his scholarship months before the season started due to an undisclosed medical condition.

It also just so happened that Jim Larranaga had moved on to Miami and had one more scholarship available for a guard in the class of 2011. It was a perfect fit.

The rest you can say, is history.

Shane Larkin made an immediate impact his freshman year, averaging 25.6 minutes a game. His playing time was inconsistent though and with Durand Scott often on the ball, it was hard for Larkin to get into a rhythm. At the start of this past season, his sophomore campaign, things were different as Larkin had been given complete reigns of the offense over the senior incumbent Durand Scott.

Shane Larkin averaged 14.5 points, 4.6 assists, 3.8 rebounds, and 2 steals per contest while shooting 48% from the field and over 40% from the arc. He led Miami to a surprise finish atop the ACC and helped them earn a number 2 seed in the NCAA tournament. Their season ended in a loss in the Sweet 16 to Marquette.

Larkin was able to improve so much from one year to the next because Miami decided to put the ball in his hands and let him make plays. On a team filled with seniors, it was Larkin who served as the catalyst. He was the most competitive, consistent, and complete player all year long. In the ACC championship game, he exploded for 28 points and 7 assists. By the end of the year, it was clear that this was his team and he was making things look easy.

Larkin thrived in an up tempo setting and also did a great job in pick and roll situations. Nearly all possesses for Miami started with Larkin having the ball in a pick and roll situation. Larkin is deadly in those situations for a multitude of reasons.

The first is his burst/acceleration. Larkin is quick changing directions and has a nice crossover, but his acceleration and burst is more impressive. He can come around a screen and turn on the jets with relative ease. Defenders want to play off of him and play him for the drive, but it is virtually impossible because Larkin is also a major threat shooting the ball.

Larkin shot over 40% from behind the arc this season and it had nothing to do with any luck. He is a great shooter who maintains excellent balance whether he is shooting from a standstill position or off the dribble. Larkin is always under such control with the ball in his hands. Defenders have no idea how to guard him as he can pull up from NBA range or drive right by you. He is so smooth and shoots the ball with such ease coming off the dribble. In a way, his use of the pick and roll is reminiscent of Steph Curry - just the way he is always ready to shoot and make anyone pay for slacking off in the pick and roll game.

That isnt to say he is the next Steph Curry - Curry is a once in a generation shooter and has a couple of inches on him - and those two discrepancies can make all the difference. But his feel with the ball in his hands is on Curry's level.

Larkin doesn't settle for jumpers though. He is very balanced when it comes to attacking the pick and roll. Thats why he is so dangerous. It is very hard to predict what he will do. He can go around the edge of the screen and has the burst to turn the corner, but he is just as likely to split the screen with a quick crossover move. Even when he aggressively attacks the rim. Larkin never finds himself out of control.

At only 5'11'' and lacking great explosiveness or strength, its not surprising that Larkin isnt great at getting all the way to the rim and finishing. But he doesn't have to. Larkin has an excellent feel on his floater and gets off his jumpers very quickly as well. As I said, Larkin is always under control and ready to shoot, showing excellent balance at all times. He shot 45% on 2-pt shots outside of layups and most of them came on floaters or short jumpers. In terms of shooting long jumpers after attacking the screener, Larkin doesn't do that often.

Instead, if Larkin is unable to get in position to shoot his floater, he is a perfectly capable passer. Not only is he balanced in shooting and driving, but he also does a good job of picking his spots on when to pass. At the college level, Larkin is more of a score first point guard because the opportunities presented themselves, but in the NBA he can easily adapt to looking for his teammates more.

Larkin is a creative passer with great vision. He never misses finding an open man. Since Larkin struggles to get all the way to the rim and finish, when he sees a help defender coming on a drive, he usually always is able to find the open man with a pass. His drive and kick game is on point and he always does a good job getting the ball to his big men. He finds his big men on lobs and is a creative passer, sometimes leaving his feet to find teammates. While jump passing can be discouraged, Larkin has good knowledge of when it is acceptable and rarely gets himself in tough spots.

In the college game, Larkin was able to dominant offensively with the ball and his hands just by using the pick and roll. In the NBA, teams won't be as scared off him and will be able to cover him tighter and with longer defenders. In college, the threat to shoot or drive often left him without an pressure on the ball and gave him free reign on the court. That won't be as easy in the NBA. He will need to prove he can handle the ball against tough man to man defenders and his strength will definitely need to be improved.

But his ball handling does appear to be at a high level already. He is able to go in both directions (again, there is that balance again) off the dribble without any favoritism for one hand.

Size will obviously be one of his biggest issues, but he does have a very quick release on his jumpshot. And he also can play off the ball from time to time to provide some scoring. Larkin is just as good of a shooter spotting up as he is off the bounce and has the basketball IQ to move without the ball in his hands as well.

Defensively will present the biggest obstacles for Larkin as he is neither tall or strong. Durand Scott drew a lot of the tougher defensive assignments at Miami, but in the NBA it will be impossible to hide. This is where Larkin's competitiveness, quick hands, and IQ will give him a chance to make him an adequate defender. In college, he has already demonstrated that he is a good team defender that understands when to help. Larkin's conditioning should also allow him to give maximum effort on defense. He was one of the best conditioned athletes in college basketball last season and logged over 36 minutes per game.

Heading into the draft this year was a tough decision for Larkin. He loved Miami and didn't enter the season with the NBA draft on his mind. But as chips began to fall, it made a lot of sense for Larkin to enter. Basically the entire core of the Hurricanes are graduating, leaving a lot of unknowns for next year. It was highly unlikely that Miami would share similar success they did this year and a lot of pressure would fall on Larkin's shoulders. Another year would also give scouts a chance to pick a part his game - something that wasn't done a lot this year since he practically came out of nowhere. And there is plenty to pick apart. After all, he is a sub 6 foot guard. And without teammates next year, it could be the perfect storm for scouts to begin questioning whether he is a true point or just a scorer. There is also the belief that he has already improved and done as much as he can in college, mastering the game, and he needs a new challenge.

This is a weak draft class and that also played a decision in him leaving. So did Kevin Ware's freak injury. And Marcus Smart deciding to come back to school and making the point guard pool slimmer may have been the final straw. For Larkin though, that doesn't spell an automatic first round selection. While this draft is weak and only has two sure fire first round picks at point guard, there is plenty of depth at the lead guard spot projected to go in the second round. Larkin is perfectly capable of coming out on top of that pack and earning himself a late first round selection, but he could also fall somewhere in the middle of that group and not hear his name called in the second round. All in all, Larkin's decision to go pro looks to be a smart one.

Monday, March 11, 2013

Scouting Report: Durand Scott

Durand Scott has always been a polarizing prospect. Possessing solid athleticism and size to go along with a good skillset, Scott certainly looks the part of a pro. In high school, he beat out Lance Stephenson for the NYC high school player of the year - and it just so happens that Stephenson is one of the most comparable current NBA players to the senior guard.

Scott proved ready for college by averaging double digits his first season at Miami and getting named to the All-ACC Freshman team. Unlike Stephenson, Scott chose to stay in school and work on his game. And here we are, three years after his freshman season ended, with much of the same things to be said about Scott that could have been said then. He's in between positions on both offense and defense and hasn't shown much improvement. He's a good player, but does he make his teammates better? Can he play PG? Will he ever learn how to shoot?

One thing to take note of this year, that is different from prior years, is that he is playing for a winning team. In his freshman year, the Hurricanes went 4-12 in ACC play. Since then, they have won at least two more conference games than the year before - culminating in the ACC regular season title this season. So while Scott hasn't turned into a superstar that has led this team from the bottom - he has seen an increase in the talent around him. Among the notable players was Shane Larkin, who has officially become the face of Miami's basketball team and primary ball handler.

Larkin leads the team in both points and assists. Scott actually is third on the team in scoring, despite leading the team in the category last year and placing second the year before. One positive thing you can say about this situation is the way that Scott has handle it. There has been no sign of jealousy or discontent from the senior as he watches Larkin get all the attention. Not only has Scott lost the leading role on the team, but he has also had his point guard duties stripped from him - giving little chance at a last ditch effort to prove to NBA teams that he is a point guard.

By now though, nobody expects Scott to be an effective NBA point guard. What this season may prove to teams though is, 1) Scott is a team player who puts winning first and 2) Scott is able to play without the ball in his hands.

And furthermore, the Hurricanes have the potential to advance deep in the NCAA Tournament and even win the title, which would be great for Scott's draft stock. Even for a senior, exposure and ending your career on a high note will help your stock and leave a good final impression on decision makers minds.

In terms of Scott's playing style, he is very much a combo guard on offense that is wired to score. He has a solid frame and stands about 6'4'' tall with good length and a solid build. Scott is able to get into the lane with long strides, solid hesitation moves, and an expanding feel of how to change speeds.

His playmaking ability hasn't really advanced much since when he was labeled as a combo guard coming out of high school. He still has a tendency to dribble with his head down and pound the ball into the floor while wasting seconds on the shotclock. Scott has ability to breakdown the defense as a drive and kick guy, and does find teammates through this way from time to time, but he more often gets himself in trouble when facing help defense.

Scott is only an average finisher for a guy with this creativity and athleticism around the rim. According to hoop-math.com, he shot just 57% on shots around the rim - the lowest among all Miami regulars. This has a lot to do with his ability to deal with help defenders. For one, he has tunnel vision driving to the lane and doesn't kick it out enough when defenders begin to close in - creating a tough shot for himself. In addition, Scott shies away from contact and prefers to use acrobatics to avoid defenders and convert spectacular, yet low percentage, finishes. Scott can be a very flashy finisher in the lane, but he needs to focus more on getting to the line and finishing through contact. His frame can handle some added bulk.

Scott also would do himself good to improve his free throw shooting, which perhaps is one reason he does try to avoid contact. Scott is shooting just 72% this year at the line. Both his FT% and FTA have fallen each of the past two years as he has been asked to do less playmaking due to the presence of Shane Larkin.

In terms of any revelations of playing without the ball, Scott has done an adequate job spacing the floor and making hustle plays. But he still doesn't have much skill in moving without the basketball and his shooting ability from 3-pt range leaves a lot to be desired. Scott will hit some of the toughest jumpers possible, but fails to hit any kind of jumper with regularity. On a positive note, his mid-range game has potential to be a strength of his and he's had good success both creating and making jumpers from inside the arc.

Overall, Scott is a guy who can carry an offense at times, but is far too inconsistent to be a primary scorer. He doesn't have the size or shooting ability as a shooting guard and lacks the feel for the game to play point guard. He's a guy in between positions on offense, but does have potential to provide scoring off the bench.

Defense will have to be his ticket into the NBA, though. Scott was named to the ACC-All Defensive team today and it was much deserved. He did a fine job defending guards such as Seth Curry, Rasheed Sulaimon, Michael Snaer, and Erick Green during ACC play and showed great intensity doing so. Scott has a reasonable amount of strength and lateral quickness and has the wingspan to keep shooters within reach. He also has been a more opportunistic defender than in years past, averaging 1.6 steals a game.

I believe in Scott's ability to be a good defender, but he still is in between positions on the defensive end too. His effect on defense will be dependent on matchups as he won't be able to lockdown bigger wings or quicker point guards.

Whether Scott has an NBA or future or not will be easier to dissect once his official measurements come out. He's listed anywhere from 6'3 to 6'5 and if he has a wingspan over 6'8, that would give some merit to his defensive abilities. A strong vertical would be a good sign as well. Iman Shumpert flew up draft boards after his combine and Scott projects to be a similar player stylistically. I wouldn't dare call Scott as great of an athlete or physical speciman as Shumpert, but they share plenty of similarities (poor shooters, lack of PG skills, strong defenders, good size and athleticism, struggled on poor ACC teams when they led offense) that could make Scott a poor man's version of him.

Durand Scott is a potential 2nd round pick who will have a chance to either boost or hurt his stock in both the NCAA tournament and NBA combine. He's a mix of Lance Stephenson and Iman Shumpert. He is somewhere in the middle between them as athletes while having Stephenson's flair and Shumpert's defensive mentality. He lacks the strength of Stephenson or the athleticism of Shumpert and is in the same area overall as a point guard and shooter.

Friday, December 28, 2012

Diamond Head Classic Recap

Over the Christmas break, the college basketball schedule was carried by the 8 team field out in Hawaii. Arizona highlighted the field and ended up taking home the trophy, but not before the battled San Diego State in a heated championship match. The Miami Hurricanes also were in the field.

Jamaal Franklin - I zeroed in on Franklin on defense during the tournament and came away impressed. He brings great intensity to that end of the floor and takes on the challenge of locking down the oppositions best player. Franklin is a tough competitor with good anticipation skills. He is always thinking out there on defense and attempting to read what the offense is doing in order to get an edge. Since he was on the opposition's best player most of the time, he had to run through a lot of screens and he looked for the best routes to take around them. He can get caught up in screens as he isn't the biggest guy, but he does have good strength for his frame. He looks like a cornerback on defense the way he stays on his toes and he actually hoped to go to the University of Florida as a wide receiver. It is obvious he has a football background. One concern is he has probably already done plenty of weight training throughout his career  and still lacks a impressive frame. There may not be much room for him to grow physically.

Offensively, Franklin has an old man's game and uses ball fakes and hesitations to his advantage. He plays with the referees in mind, always trying to draw a foul. He can also take his man into the post, where he is solid as long as he remembers to keep his pivot foot in place. He's a streaky shooter with improving form, but is having a bad year from behind the arc. He forces up a lot of bad outside shots. Franklin also is able to get all the way to the rim with explosive dunks thanks to his quick first step and shiftiness. His ability to get to the basket comes at a cost though - Franklin will turn it over a lot as well. The turnovers comes from his high, long dribbles and his lack of control going to the rim. He seems to get called for at least one charge a game.

Franklin was a problem child growing up and has learned to channel that energy on the basketball court. He still shows maturity issues at times - he picked up a DUI and flipped off fans last year. After a freshman season stuck behind Kawhi Leonard, he actually considered leaving SDSU for the draft. Instead, he learned for Leonard's work ethic and has transformed himself into a tireless worker.

Solomon Hill - Hill took away MVP honors for the event, showing an impressive all around game. He really stepped up in Arizona's lone close game against San Diego State and scored 21 big points. Him and Franklin battled much of the game.

Solomon Hill's improvement has been impressive over his stay at Arizona. His ball handling is now an apparent strength and at times he looks like a point forward on the court. With Arizona's freshman bigs coming in, he's become a pure perimeter player. He can weave his way through defenders, but he is slow at changing directions and is best when he just puts his head down and gets to the rim. His versatility in the post and on the perimeter make him a matchup nightmare in college. His jumper is also solid but he doesn't rely on it.

For Arizona's freshman, none of them look ready for the NBA Draft. But I'd say they came to the right place in order to prep for it. Arizona's staff has helped guys like Hill, Derrick Williams, and Kevin Parrom make big jumps. These guys just haven't gotten better at what they do - they all added skills they didn't have before. Ashley, Jarrett, and Tarczewski all have NBA potential and should be able to maximize their draft stock as a Wildcat.

For Miami, they were disappointing simply because Reggie Johnson was unable to play and Durand Scott suffered an ankle injury early on against Arizona. It slowed him down noticeably in the final two games and caused him to shoot a poor percentage. Scott and Miami were in line for a potential statement week in Hawaii, but instead came away with more doubters and more excuses.

Legit excuses, but excuses nonetheless. Their short bench has proven to be a major factor already with their injuries. First against Florida Gulf Coast without Scott and now in Hawaii. They have looked great when everyone has been healthy, but when one guy goes down, they are prone to losing to anyone. There is no doubt in my mind this is a NCAA tournament team that could make a Sweet 16 run, but they need to get there first. The pressure is on them as ACC play starts.