Stock Attack: Mason Plumlee

Every year there are a couple of players that jump out at me as extremely overrated and Mason Plumlee headlines that list in 2013. He's been projected in the lottery, even top 10, all season long and still sits in the lottery discussion today. His stock looks more unstable now with Gorgui Dieng getting a lot of recognition and Steven Adams deciding to enter the draft, but there is still a strong belief that Plumlee will be a solid third big man.

Personally, I've never seen it with him. I've said all season long that Gorgui Dieng is the better prospect and still stand by it. Dieng makes fewer mental mistake, can consistently hit jumpers, and is a bigger presence at the rim.

Scouts like Mason Plumlee because he has improved every year. Thats one way at looking at it. But I see a guy who vastly underachieved his first few seasons given his situation and athleticism. Name me a Duke player who hasn't made big strides under Coach K. Look at how Nolan Smith is looking in the NBA.

This year Mason Plumlee did look much better, in part because he was more aggressive. He wasn't afraid of going to the foul line anymore since his shooting at the line improved.

History says that seniors that improve a lot their final year aren't to be trusted and the eye test gives similar concerns. If it takes you four years to put it together at a school like Duke when you have great athleticism, that sends up some major red flags. Coach K consistently gets the most out of his players, gets them drafted higher than they should be, and then we hear all about how Duke can't produce NBA players. Yet time and time again everyone falls into the trap of Coach K's magic.

Of course, evaluating prospects is a still a case by case basis. While Plumlee has his age and school as red flags, that is no way to determine if a guy is overrated. But when you watch Plumlee play, the amount of mental mistakes he makes throws up yet another red flag.

Then you get to talking about his position. Is he a power forward or a center? His mechanical style, lack of lateral quickness, smarts, or shooting ability suggest that he can't play power forward well. But as a center, his narrow hips and 6'10 wingspan are both major deterrents. You can improve your upperbody strength all you want, but genetically small hips are a different story.

But what about his offensive game, you say? He did put up over 17ppg in the ACC. But what translates? He isn't hitting jumpers at a consistent rate. He constantly got pushed out of good post position on the block due to lack of strength. Plumlee did show off an improved post game this year and as I said, his aggressiveness didn't hurt either. But his post game is still very mechanical. There is no rhyme or reason to his moves. He makes a lot of awful plays the end of successful because of his athleticism and new found confidence. Take away some of that confidence he gained from this season and you are back to a passive player without much else. And its a fact that his confidence will take a hit once he reaches the NBA - it happens to most players.

Plumlee's post moves consist of a nice right handed hook shot and then a lot of freestyle. A lot of stuff he won't get away with at the next level. He can't freestyle his way to the rim in the pros from post position 15 feet out. The help defense is too good.

It is really hard to pinpoint what Plumlee's strengths will be at the next level. Is it his defense or offense? Is he just a good all-around player or a player who isnt good at anything?

I've been leaning towards the latter side so much that I've fallen over. And based of Mason Plumlee's lack of balance, he better be careful he doesn't bust and fall on his face as well.

Midseason Report: Alex Len

Not only did Alex Len come into this season 30 pounds heavier than last year, he was also a lot more comfortable. In his freshman season, he was forced to miss the first ten games and the season and had a hard time adjusting to life in the states. Imagine his situation - missing the first ten games is one thing - we saw how slow Shabazz was after missing weeks of practice and UCLA's first three games. And the overall transition to the college game is tough for any player, especially living away from home for the first time. But for Len, he moved by himself to another country and didn't even understand the language. So while he was behind in learning Maryland's system, he had an even tougher time understanding the coaches and getting up to speed.

This year Len's English had improved to the point where he can now communicate with his teammates and understand what the coaches have to say. There was a sense that he would have a breakout year and potentially become a first round draft pick. Maryland's first game was against Kentucky and Len didn't wait very long to generate buzz in front of plenty of NBA scouts at Barclay's. 

Len had 23 points (10-18 shooting) and 12 rebounds against potential #1 overall pick Nerlens Noel. This was the perfect way for Len to start off his year and the matchup couldn't have been better. The hype surrounding Noel was immense, but he was still a very raw freshman in his first game. But seeing Alex Len outplay him, that turned some heads - even though it shouldn't have been a surprise. 

Soon after, you started hearing Len's name mentioned among the top 5 players in the draft. An obvious overreaction for a guy who really only had one good game. Fans were infatuated with a college big man with a true post game. Old school NBA fans loved him and wondered aloud if he could be the polished post big man that the NBA has been missing. They romanticized his game into something they longed for - something that has been thought to be dying in the professional game.

And make no mistake about it - Alex Len is a highly skilled player. His back to the basket game is one of the best to come along in the college ranks in recent memory. The variety of ways in which he can score, his ability to stretch the defense, and his touch on his shot make his offensive game complete. He throws in turnaround jumpers from either shoulder, solid footwork, and willingness to operate with his back to the basket the people love and is tough to stop if you are the opposition. 

Len didn't dominate competition after his game against Kentucky. After his 23 point performance against the Wildcats, Len failed to match it in any other non-conference affair - netting a high 19 against Stony Brook. But Len wasn't needed to dominate these games. Maryland rolled over most of their competition with a high scoring offensive attack that didn't have to involve their plodding big man. They played arguably the weakest non-conference schedule in the NCAA and Len was consistently covered by smaller defenders - but sometimes two defenders at a time. 

Heading into ACC play, you could say Alex Len was playing a good game. He went "all-in" on the Kentucky game, raising his stock, and then sat back and played it safe thereafter. There wasn't much he could have done in games against the likes of Maryland-Eastern Shore, Georgia Southern, and South Carolina State. He continued to flash his skills each game and analysts were satisfied with his performance - with Kentucky still engraved in their mind.

ACC play is a different animal though. It separates the men from the boys. So far, Len had faced young "boys" at Kentucky in their first career college game and a bunch of low-major 6-7 post players. And he actually struggled at times with the physicality of play and defense.

But nobody was watching him then. 

We are now 5 games into ACC play. Through these 5 games, Len is shooting 47% from the field, 19-28 from the line, grabbing 11 boards (per 40), and has 7 blocks and 5 assists to his name. Again, still nothing dominating and his last two games against other potential first round bigs have netted him 20 total points. 

The Terrapins have had trouble getting the ball into Len and in the process, are making sure people don't underestimate the value of a quality entry pass. Pe'Shon Howard has struggled to run the point for the Terps and has delivered errant passes into the post time and time again.

Passing into the post is a lost art. And it comes with the lack of big men with offensive skills like Len's. And playing through a big man is also something that has gone to the wayside. 

The Terrapins have been battling with an identity crisis so far in ACC play due to that very issue. They have a good big man and want to get the ball into him, But at the same time, the game has changed and you like your players to get out and push the ball in transition. If a college team is struggling to focus an offense around a talented big man, you think a more talented NBA team will go out of their way to run their offense through one?

Maryland's problem isn't just entry passing and style of play when it comes to featuring Len. Its personnel. Maryland's other bigs are bruising types and clog the lane on offense. Between Shaq Cleare, Charles Mitchell and James Padgett - none of them have shown an inclination to shoot jumpers. So with the big lineups Mark Turgeon likes to run, Alex Len usually lacks the space that a lot of other college teams have that have stretch power forwards.

But it isn't just the big man who can't shoot. No, this is a problem with the whole team. Such a problem that Albany transfer Logan Aronhalt finds himself as a necessary member of the team's rotation. They rank 10th in the ACC in 3-pt percentage and have only made 95 on the year - which ranks them 243rd in the nation. 

So spacing is an obvious problem as well. Pe'Shon can't throw entry passes or run point, Dez Wells prefers to push the ball, and Nick Faust rarely looks to set up his teammates to score. Not exactly the supporting cast you'd want to surround Len with. But we know what he is capable of on offense so that isn't a concern.

Concerns with Len come with his defense and his role at the next level. His role is a complicated matter that we've skimmed over a few times already. His defense is pretty simple - he's not very good at it.

And I don't think most people have realized that Len is a bad defender. But they will now that ACC play has started. Simply looking at blocks, you'd assume Len is at least a solid defender. He's normally good for two of them a game. 

Being a good shot blocker doesn't equal a good defender though. Len is the perfect example. For one, Len is a chronic biter on pump fakes. He's always looking to block a shot and is easily lifted off of his feet. To make it worse is his recovery time - once he gets out of place, ball handlers will have their shot off before he can even regather himself.

His lack of ability to make up for mistakes also corresponds to his inability to change directions or move laterally well. Opposing teams love getting Len out on the top of the arc to cover the pick and roll. He is very slow on his feet, struggles changing directions, and lacks an understanding of where to be in order to disrupt the offense. In most cases, Len finds himself in no mans land - not helping hedge the ball handler or getting back to cover the roller. A slow mind mixed with slow feet is not a recipe for success on defense. Len finds himself out of position more times than not on the defensive end.

Len also needs to do a better job using that 7'5'' wingspan on the defensive end. Naturally, Len stands a bit awkwardly and is obviously not a natural knee bender when it comes to getting into defense position and moving his feet. But in the post, Len can do a better job of showing off his wingspan and deterring shots without going for blocks. He needs to develop a mentality as a rim protector - too many times he allows a man to slip behind him and get an easy basket. He also struggles with smaller guys who can go into his body, use his leverage against him, and also outmuscle him. Len has been beaten in this way by some of the low-major players.

Alex Len is a solid rebounder, pulling down 12.5 per 40 minutes. Compared to other top prospects, Len is the 11th best big man in DraftExpress's Top 100 in terms of rebounds. Not great, not terrible. For his size, you'd like more. For the NBA, you'd certainly like a center that is either a great defender or rebounder. Len is neither at this point. Len has been outhustled and outmanned on the boards at times this year. When he does pull down boards though, he usually does a good job of maintaining possession. 

Then there is the question of fit. How does he fit an NBA team? Who does he play like?

The Jonas Valanciunas comparison has been thrown around. Valanciunas actually dominated Len a few years back in the U-18 European Championships. The comparison is pretty off base. Yes, both have similar size and builds while lacking great athleticism. But that is where the comparisons stop for me.

Valanciunas is a much different offensive player. He thrives finishing around the hoop and doesn't stray too far from there. He sticks with his bread and butter and plays efficient basketball. He knows how to use his length around the rim and is stronger than he looks. He also is a good screener who would much rather roll to the basket off a ball screen than to pop out for a jumper. His ability to roll after a pick is a considerable strength and he gets a lot of points this way. On these plays, Jonas shows his ability to move in space and the body control to finish. Valanciunas has always been, and projects to be, a complimentary piece on offense instead of a guy you ask to make plays in the post.

Now for Len, he's a guy who would much prefer to pop after a ball screen. He is much more skilled and can knock down jumpers from 18 feet in. When he rolls, he is slow and isn't very fluid. He can do it on occasion and has good hands to receive passes, but it is not a strength of his. And when it comes to finishing inside, he is not on the same level as Jonas. Len shies away from the contact and is hesitant in traffic. He doesnt use his long arms as well as the Lithuanian does to finish. When it comes to offensive skills though, Alex Len's ability far outshine Valanciunas's as has already been discussed. He is much more likely to receive post touches and have the offense run through him.

Defensively is where the greatest separation could be. Valanciunas has the lateral ability, the aggressiveness, and the smarts that Len has not shown. And that is where fit comes into play. Valanciunas fit into the NBA was easy to project. Len has a more intriguing package in some ways, but how can a NBA team use it?

NBA centers in today's game are asked to rebound and defender first and foremost. The game has changed from the days of dominant offensive bigs. There is no more hand checking which allows guards to be much more prominent. While people yearn for fundamentally sound bigs to return, the problem is more of the priorities of GMs than it is the lack of back to the basket big men. 

Alex Len has lots of work to do in order to become a starter in the NBA and fill the role of a 2012 NBA center. And if you do run the offense through him, his passing has to improve if the 5 assists in 5 ACC games is any indication.

Impressions from Steven Adams Debut

Getting off to the right start can be important. For a boom or bust guy with so much mystery around him, these first impressions in front of a rabid fan base are even more key. For a Kiwi who is not used to so much scrutiny and passion that comes with college basketball, you could even say it is imperative that a guy like Steven Adams would get off on the right foot. Adams had his first crack at college basketball last night against Mount St. Mary's and was able to stand out in a good way on defense and stay out of everyone else's way on offense.

Mount St. Mary's had nobody that came close to Adams in size and its easy to be captivated by his size. He appears to be a legit 7 feet tall with long arms and a very solid base for a 19 year old kid. During the broadcast, they mentioned how every male in his family is over 6'10 and his shortest sister stands at a miscue 6'5'' - how is that for bloodlines? Adams was definitely born to play basketball and while his two older brothers are playing professionally, neither got the opportunity that Adams is getting to play at the college level. This structure can prove to be valuable for a big man.

Offensively, Adams received very few touches. He is limited to his natural abilities on this end and completely understands his limitations. I made a note that he didn't even touch the ball until nearly 4 minutes in the game - a play where he received the ball at the top of the key and quickly passed it to the closest man and racked up an easy assist. He was relegated to setting screens all game, something that he shows a good understanding of. He uses his big frame well to create space for his teammates and rolls like a gazelle to the rim. He didn't receive any passes of these screens, but I liked his ability to accelerate so quickly and his hands appear to be soft. In the post, Adams can hold his position, but was fronted most of the game and didn't make much of an effort to receive the ball down low. He had two touches all game in the post, both where he had excellent position, and was able to convert both of them. He got his other 4 points off a transition slam and a weakside putback on the glass. 

The best thing about Adams is coaches get to work with a nearly empty slate on offense. He doesn't have any bad habits. He doesn't dribble for the sake of it and he doesn't bring the ball below his waist.

Defensively, Adams was able to make more of an impact. He had a few swats that might have made the home crowd feel sorry for their overmatched opponents - just effortless rejections that you knew had no chance getting by him. Adams moved well on this end and Mount St. Mary's constantly involved him in pick and roll situations, but failed to ever execute one against him. He covered the picks well, but Mount St. Mary's was also super passive in attacking him. It still remains to be seen how he fares covering screens against Big East schools although he does appear to understand how to play the screens and has a good overall understanding of where to be on defense. He's a smart player overall who does some of the small things it takes to win. 

He didn't get any serious opportunities to defend the post as Mount St. Mary's had no threat to him, but upon first glance he is going to need to focus more on generating power from his legs. Adams stood straight up the entire game and didn't show much bending action at the knees. On one post defense he had, Pitt brought the double team and his big body trapped him, although he didnt attempt to make a move to tie up the opponent. Adams finished the game with zero fouls. Im not sure if the coaching staff has told him to be careful with them, but if they did, Adams has taken that to heart and avoids fouling like the plague.  I'd prefer to see him be more aggressive.

Overall, Adams debut went well. Pitt has done a good job of not putting much on his shoulders and just asking him to do what he is good at. As the season develops, his game should expand and we can continue to monitor his progress.

A Quick Look At Alec Brown

I have been seeing Alec Brown mentioned as a lottery pick on multiple sites so I wanted to give my thoughts on him real quick. I don't want to do a complete scouting report on him right now because I don't see him as a guy who will declare this season. Brown is way too scrawny at this point in time to be effective in any kind of role at the next level - in Europe or the NBA. Guys who are over 7 feet tall and weight around 215 pounds generally don't have a good track record. 215 poinds isn't a weight you say a guy is skinny and just needs to put on some weight. No, 215 for a 7 footer is a huge problem. If you look at the Draft Express database, it is basically a death sentence. I don't want to close the door on Brown as he does have a good skill set, but he has to put on weight. I am talking about finishing this season up above 230 pounds. And even then, that just provides hope. He still would have a ways to go strength wise before declaring after this season.

I am usually all for guys leaving early if they want to and heading to a pro team where they can make money and practice more often with better coaches and players. But for sticks like Brown, they are so far behind physically that they won't even be able to play down low to work on their games. The lack of strength will prevent them from being able to play their games at all. Sure a pro strength program will help more than in college, but teams don't have a lot of patience nowadays. Unless he was drafted in the first round, which I completely doubt at this point, Brown would have one year to prove himself to a team. Brown would end up bouncing around from team to team, unable to establish himself and ultimately kill his confidence. Coming from a small school and watching him play, Brown can't afford to wait in limbo for a few years with his confidence shot. His confidence has been built off good play, and you can see it increase as he makes baskets, but all of his confidence can be taken away over a year of being beat up in NBA practices with absolutely no hope of countering.

Guys like Alec Brown were sexier 10-15 years ago. There were the Euro movement of tall, skinny, and heavily skilled guys. They phased out after way too many bust. There was also the movement to more physical freak types at center instead of guys who knew how to score to their back to the basket. In the late 1990s, I think we look at Brown and consider him a first rounder. Not anymore. Just look at the centers in the league today.

As I said, I am not going to write off a guy who is only a 20 years old and heading into his junior year in college. But he does not deserve any of the lottery hype so lets temper expectations. If you do happen to catch some games of Brown, you can expect to see a talented player who is somewhat of a unique talent. Rarely do you see guys with the feel and the size that Brown has in the post. Brown has great counter moves and good touch with either hand. He uses the glass, can hook the ball over both shoulders, drive to the hoop, and spin quickly towards the hoop with his back to the basket. He has a very good feel in the post and is able to figure out what is the best move out of his bag of tricks for each situation. He also is a good passer and does a good job feeding the ball into his fellow big, Brenna Cougill. He has a smooth stroke at the free throw line and his success there is reiterated with his ability to stretch the defense by hitting jumpers.

Defensively, it is obviously the strength that hinders him. Cougill, who is a huge body weight-wise, actually covered most of the centers while Brown would cover mid-major power forwards, which in a lot of cases, were undersized PFs who would play on the perimeter. Brown has gotten comfortable out there and moves pretty well laterally. He understands how to play pick and rolls as well so he could become a good pick and roll defender. He does a good job helping off the ball and has fairly quick hands. He blocks shots at a good rate, but nothing that you wouldn't expect from an able bodied 7 footer playing against lower level competition. I wouldn't call the guy a rim protector or much of an imposing threat. Adding weight would help for sure, but he has below average explosiveness even without added weight holding him down.

The status quo on Brown for me isn't going to change anytime soon. I like his offensive game, but its a moot point at his current physical stature. We will see how his body looks heading into this season, but a ten pound gain isn't going to garner my attention. The guy is weak, skinny or not. He isn't a wiry strength kind of guy who also has toughness and refuses to be pushed around. Brown gets thrown around like a rag doll and has a long way to go.