NCAA Tournament Preview - Midwest

Filling out brackets and reading statistical analysis of every single analysis may not be for you. Maybe you are more of a NBA fan that turns to college basketball during the month of March in order to get a look at the next wave of pros. If so, this is for you. In a four part series, I'll examine the top prospects to watch in each region as well as some surprise players and matchups.

The Midwest region is the unanimous choice for toughest region and it holds true in terms of prospects as well. The region is home to Marcus Smart, Gorgui Dieng, Mason Plumlee, Gary Harris, Doug McDermott, and plenty of other NBA players.

Games to Watch

Colorado State vs Missouri

Colorado State is a team many aren't familiar with but have been very good in the competitive MWC. Colorado State has a very physical frontline led by Minnesota transfer Colton Iverson, who is starting to garner interest from NBA teams. Iverson is a huge presence inside and is very well schooled on defense. He moves well and could be a Greg Stiemsma type in the NBA. Against Missouri, he will face two senior big men in Laurence Bowers and Alex Oriakhi that have a shot to be drafted. Oriakhi is a banger type himself, who you should remember from the UCONN National Championship team. It will be interesting to see how those two fare against each other as they could legitimately be battling for a spot in the second round of the NBA draft.

Missouri also features Phil Pressey whose decision making and ability to perform in the clutch has been ridiculed as of late. A physical Colorado State team will certainly test him, but if they do win, seeing him matchup against Louisville's suffocating defense in the round of 32 could make or break his stock.

Oklahoma State vs Oregon

Oregon was a better team earlier in the season when freshman point guard Dominic Artis was 100% healthy, but his backup Johnathan Loyd did step up in the Pac-12 Title game with a MVP level performance. Both are sub-6 feet and very quick playmakers who will put Marcus Smart's defense to the test. Smart as you probably know, is a potential top 5 pick in this upcoming draft and is known for toughness and leadership. He's a great team defender, but it will be interesting to see if he has the lateral quickness to stay with the Duck's two speedsters. 

On the inside, Arsalan Kazemi and LeBryan Nash should provide a battle for those that love tough, physical play. Kazemi lacks any type of offense game, but relishes his role as a rebounder on the team and could potentially carve out a similar role in the NBA. Nash is a tough combo forward who is currently most effective within 18 feet of the rim. He has a very good mid-range game and is still working on expanding his range/improving his ball handling so he can play small forward at the next level. Kazemi has a very good opportunity to show NBA teams he can be a lockdown defender as well against Nash while Nash will look to prove otherwise.

Moving Forward

The winner of Missouri/Colorado State will get Louisville, which will provide another test for either frontline. Gorgui Dieng, Montrezl Harrell, and Chane Behanon all have NBA potential on the inside for the Cardinals. Dieng is the one to key on as he should be a first round pick this year. He will get an opportunity to show toughness against against either Iverson or Oriakhi. Dieng doesn't score much in the low post, but does an excellent job facilitating offense in the high post and blocking shots on the other end. He's a good passer with a developing jumper, although his post game remains nonexistant. Louisville generally plays a zone so there haven't been a lot of chances to see him defending a strong post scorer one on one in Big East play, but a game against Colorado State could provide such a matchup.

As stated before, if Missouri wins, Phil Pressey will be the one to watch. Peyton Siva and Russ Smith lead a very talented Louisville defense that likes to press and squeeze the life out of an opponent. They just exposed potential lottery pick Michael Carter-Williams in the Big East title game and could do the same to Pressey.

Another good round of 32 matchup to root for is Michigan State vs Memphis. Memphis has fringe NBA prospects at every position, although none are that close to making an impact. Michigan State their fair share as well - Adreian Payne, Branden Dawson, Gary Harris, and Keith Appling. Dawson will be tested against Adonis Thomas, a prospect who was once considered a potential lottery pick. Thomas has failed to assert his will against a weak conference USA schedule however, but has a chance to win back fans against the physical Dawson. Thomas has a great mid-range game and plays within the offense. Dawson is less refined, but an absolute beast on the offensive glass. His skills still need to be developed, but they both could be first rounders a year from now.

The Philadelphia pod could play host to a matchup of Doug McDermott vs Ryan Kelly if Creighton gets by Cincinnati. Kelly has missed most of Duke's conference schedule, but has one over a lot of fans upon his return. He's a stretch PF that doesn't help much on the boards, but plays very good defense for a guy who is a below average athlete. His defense will certainly be needed facing one of the nation's top scorers in Doug McDermott, who can get it done both inside and out 

Mason Plumlee will have his hands full in that one as well, as former Rutgers big man Gregory Echenique is Creighton's starting center. Echenique is an absolute load inside and can bully just about anyone around when he wants to. Plumlee will likely look to showcase his perimeter game against him which should be interesting. Plumlee isn't much of a shooter and is not nearly as good of a ball handler as he believes he is.

The Sweet Sixteen could pit another very good point guard against Louisville's defense if Marcus Smart and the Cowboys survive that far. Smart's ability to handle the ball in traffic and his quickness will be tested. From the looks of Oklahoma State's draw, Smart will get a chance to prove to doubters and fans alike that he is a legitimate top 5 pick.

Also in the Sweet Sixteen could be Michigan State vs Duke, which would matchup two of the best freshman shooting guards in the country. Gary Harris and Rasheed Sulaimon both have first round potential. While Gary Harris is the better player currently - possibly the best on the Spartans team - Sulaimon has the length and defensive potential that intrigue NBA scouts. He's been up and down this season, but a hot March that results in a Duke final four could heat up his stock. More than likely though, you see both of these players back next year.

Plumlee will have to go against Derrick Nix after facing Gregory Echenique the game before, which would put him up against two big bruisers in a row. Ryan Kelly vs Adreian Payne will be intriguing as both could be 2nd round picks this year (or next year for Payne). Both have the ability to shoot outside, while Kelly is the more polished player. Payne however, has some untapped potential on the defensive end.

This region could ultimately set up a early season rematch between Louisville and Duke - one that Duke ended up winning in Puerto Rico. This time around the Cardinals will have Gorgui Dieng, who was injured the last time these two faced off. Dieng vs Plumlee will be a huge matchup. Plumlee has been considered the best upperclassmen center prospect by most, although I have always believed Dieng to be the better prospect. Pitting them against each other here, will be one of the last time either of them get to weigh in on the debate. 

Duke vs Davidson

Duke vs Davidson

You can call this one the Curry Bowl as Seth Curry faces his brother's old team for the second time. Personally, I like watching two great coaches go up against each other. Both teams run a lot of sets, play a lot of players, and have a balanced offensive attack. Coach K obviously has more talent at his disposal, but McKillop always does great with what he has.

McKillop does have one solid prospect in De'Mon Brooks. He's the prototype for face up college power forwards these days - possessing very good athleticism, a strong frame, and good ability off the bounce. Him and the rest of Davidson threw off Mason Plumlee's game with their physicality. The brought sneaky double teams on the weakside and forced Duke's big men to make quick decisions - something Plumlee struggled with. Plumlee finished with 6 turnovers and only 10 points on the night.

Ryan Kelly did a much better job dealing with Davidson's aggressive defense. He fought back in the post, played under control, and used their aggressiveness against them. Kelly has a series of ball fakes he uses and a very good feel in the post. He takes his time and is able to get a decent look at the basket whenever he gets a touch. He makes good decisions with the ball and plays good man to man defense as well. You feel comfortable when he has the ball - more comfortable than you'd feel about Mason Plumlee to be honest.

De'Mon Brooks dealt with Duke's height by forcing them to play in space and attacking them off the dribble. He knows how to finish inside, taking the ball right at the chest of bigger defenders. Brooks has good touch with either hand near the rim and stays under control. He also does a nice job utilizing pump fakes as well as a spin move when facing up off the dribble. He thrives as a undersized power forward. Defensively, he is disciplined, strong, and uses his above average length well. He is well coached on that end of the floor and is a very good help defender.

On the perimeter, Duke's guards defended very well tonight - namely Quinn Cook, Rasheed Sulaimon, and Tyler Thornton. Cook has been solid all season since gaining his confidence against Kentucky and stood out tonight. He did a good job getting in the paint and finishing with floaters or kicking it back out on the perimeter.

As for Sulaimon, he filled up the box score with seven rebounds and 6 made free throws. He was only 1-6 from the floor though, despite his aggressive play. He looked to push the ball in transition off of rebounds and did his best work their. In the halfcourt though, he struggled getting all the way to the rim. He has a solid first step, but lacks explosiveness after that. He has to dribble way too much on his way to the rim - at times he will put the ball on the floor for 5 dribbles - the best drivers get to the rim with 2. When you get Sulaimon dancing with the ball on his way to the hoop, turnovers and bad shots are the two most likely outcomes. Sulaimon needs to go back to uses his jumpshot to set up his drives instead of the other way around. He is a good all-around player, but shouldn't feature himself as a pure slasher.

ACC Conference Preview

PGs

Shane Larkin
Quinn Cook
Lorenzo Brown
Ian Miller
Erick Green
Marcus Paige

The ACC is famous for their point guard play, but this year may lack a first rounder. Lorenzo Brown has the best shot and conference play will be important for him. He will be more experienced than most of the ACC point guards and will be expected to lead NC State to a high finish in ACC play. Anything less than second place will be a disappointment.

Erick Green is the leading scorer in the country and ACC play won't stop him. He's a very talented offensive player and deserves second round looks in the draft. He is very quick and has tight handles, allowing him to play with defenders. He does a great job in the pick and roll, able to turn the corner or hit the long jumper. He is a scorer first, but is able to find teammates on kick outs. He can go left or right and his go to move may be a left handed drive finished with a soft, right-handed floater. He's a controlled driver and finishes well at the rim. In transition, he is deadly because of his speed and ability to avoid defenders. He shows good leadership and encourages teammates, but also coaches them up and expects a lot out of them.

SGs

PJ Hairston
Seth Curry
Rodney Purvis
Dexter Strickland
Durand Scott

Durand Scott has been one of my favorite players to watch this year. Despite other higher profiled players, I think either Durand Scott or Erick Green is the best guard in the ACC. Durand Scott is a tough competitor and a great defender. He has no problem breaking down defenses and finishing with creative layups. He also has added a 3-pt shot to his arsenal. The majority of Scott's shots are tough and he is actually a better shooter off the dribble and unbalanced than he is spotting up. He has done a fine job fitting in with Shane Larkin and picking his spots within the offensive flow. He isn't a guy who moves great off the ball and creates easy scoring opportunities for himself, but he is so talented in the sense that he doesn't need easy ways to score. Miami is best in the halfcourt when Larkin and Scott can breakdown defenses.

In terms of scoring, Seth Curry is right up there with Scott and Green, but isn't as athletic or as much of a playmaker. This year he has stepped up and shown the world that he is creative off the bounce and can create his own offense. I think he's always had it in him, but between trying to play point guard and sharing the ball with Austin Rivers, this is his first chance to focus on scoring the ball.

PJ Hairston is actually the best per minute scoring shooting guard in the ACC, but is only averaging 18 minutes per game. And rightfully so. He can shoot you out of a game just as well as he can shoot you into a game. He has followed up his freshman year by continuing to be a streaky scorer who settles for jumpshots. Hairston looked like he could be a nice threat heading to the rim out of college, but he tries to get to the rim and the explosion isn't prominent.

Defensively, Dexter Strickland and Rodney Purvis both get after it. Strickland's draft stock hasn't been helped this year, as he doesn't look fully recovered from his torn ACL injury. He has done a good job setting up teammates and acting as a point guard when needed. Yet his potential as a NBA point guard looks dim. With lost athleticism, Strickland is taking more jumpers inside the arc and has done a so-so job of converting. He gets nice elevation on his jumper to get shots off, but his form isn't pretty.

On the other end, the way Rodney Purvis has came on as a freshman with great defense is impressive. He also runs the court very well, leaking out in transition like a wide receiver. Offensively, he can hit the jumper and get by defenders with a nice first step. He has a floater that he can utilize as well.

SFs

Rasheed Sulaimon
Reggie Bullock
TJ Warren
Milton Jennings
Okaro White

Sulaimon is a shooting guard, but plays a lot of small forward in Duke's offense. The UNC/Duke games are always interesting for a multitude of reasons, but as a draft enthusiast, Im looking forward to see how Sulaimon fares against the older Bullock.

Milton Jennings has improved his jumper and looks comfortable out on the perimeter in his senior year. It seems like he has been around forever. He actually is pretty smooth shooting off the dribble, but his strength holds him back from being much of a force. He struggles to get where he wants to on the court and still gets pushed around.

PFs

CJ Leslie
Ryan Kelly
James Michael McAdoo
Kenny Kadji

All four of these power forwards are face up types and generally avoid contact, but they are all very different. Kelly has the best basketball IQ and a complete skillset, but is an awful rebounding big. CJ Leslie is the most physically talented, but lacks any sense of the game. James Michael McAdoo has a great feel AND athleticism, but has been extremely soft and turnover prone. And Kadji flashes some guard skills, but will be 25 by draft night!

Leslie vs McAdoo will be must watch games and could help McAdoo's stock. He will get a chance to show he can hang with an athlete like Leslie, while being the much smarter player. UNC better have someone step up at the center position though, or else McAdoo may be getting abused by Richard Howell all night instead.

Cs

Alex Len
Mason Plumlee
Richard Howell
Reggie Johnson

All four of these guys could end up getting draft this year and all are heading into conference play with their heads held high. Plumlee has injected himself into player of the year conversations, Len has been talked about as a top 5 pick, Howell has been NCSU's best player, and Johnson has lost weight and been impressive in the early going. Now with conference play, each will have a chance to prove themselves.

Len vs Plumlee will be huge - but what about Howell going up against them? Howell has the ability to shut either of them done and bully them. Howell has the most to gain heading into conference play. For Alex Len, he has the most to lose. He improved a lot over the offseason, but he still has only had one good game against NBA caliber big men - and they were playing in their first ever college game! He will be expected to continue to produce consistently against the ACC and that is no sure thing.

Top Ten Defenders

1. Michael Snaer
2. Reggie Bullock
3. Richard Howell
4. Durand Scott
5. Mason Plumlee
6. Dez White
7. Ian Miller
8. Rasheed Sulaimon
9. Reggie Johnson
10. Dexter Strickland


Top Ten Shooters

1. Scott Wood
2. Seth Curry
3. Erick Green
4. Reggie Bullock
5. Ryan Kelly
6. CJ Harris
7. PJ Hairston
8. Quinn Cook
9. Marcus Paige
10. Shane Larkin

All Freshman Team

Marcus Paige
Rodney Purvis
Rasheed Sulaimon
TJ Warren
Charles Mitchell

Seth Allen
Justin Anderson
Marcus Georges-Hunt
Robert Carter
Joel James (Over Brice Johnson because I think James is more ready for ACC play)


Top 25 NBA Prospects (young players with limited playing time omitted)

1. James Michael McAdoo
2. Rasheed Sulaimon
3. Alex Len
4. Mason Plumlee
5. Richard Howell
6. TJ Warren
7. Dez Wells
8. Michael Snaer
9. Lorenzo Brown
10. CJ Leslie
11. Marcus Paige
12. Rodney Purvis
13. Durand Scott
14. Erick Green
15. Joel James
16. Reggie Johnson
17. Ryan Kelly
18. PJ Hairston
19. Seth Curry
20. Kenny Kadji
21. Ian Miller
22. Travis McKie
23. Milton Jennings
24. Daniel Miller
25. Dexter Strickland

Thoughts on Duke vs Minnesota

- Duke came away with a really impressive win against Minnesota, beating them 89-71. Their starting five is scary good and they mesh well together. Each of them know their roles and there is plenty of experience between them.

Plumlee has taken over as one of the senior leaders. He has played with a great motor so far this season and is finally looking the way a Duke senior should. He killed Minnesota and Elliott Elliason in the first half, registering a double-double. In the process, he got Elliason sent to the bench - where he should have been anyway.

- Each of their starters scored in double figures and they showed great balance, but Seth Curry was the guy they went to when they needed a bucket. He was a magician out there today, showing a better array of moves than in the past to get off his jumper. He finished with 25 points and couldn't miss from the field.

- Sulaimon was their lowest scoring member of the starting 5 with 11 points. He was also their best at getting to the hoop and also arguably their best passer. He gives Duke the perimeter defender they need. I'm a big fan.

- Minnesota has a nice starting lineup as well, but Tubby needs to whittle down his rotation. For one, I dont think they have the inside depth to ever play Rodney Williams at SF. He played a few minutes there today and I didnt get it. Hes a better player at the PF and Minnesota has more depth on their wings.

Elliason looked terrible, but I liked the minutes Maurice Walker gave them. His conditioning leaves a lot to be desired, but if I were Tubby I'd try to stick close to a Williams/Mbakwe/Walker rotation inside.

- For their guards, he needs to trim the fat in the same way. Or maybe it was just a case where one guy had a bad game and the other had a good game. Either way, Julian Welsh looked awful while Maverick Ahanmisi did a nice job scoring off the bench. Based on their career numbers, it could just be a case of one game. We'll see.

Anyway, there is no doubting that the Hollins duo should be getting the majority of the minutes. I've finally decided that Austin is looks like the better pro. Neither had a great game but the talent is there. Tough matchup against Duke's guards.

- Rodney Williams may be the quickest and most explosive leaper in the country with all due respect to Doug Anderson of Detroit. He had at least 3 emphatic dunks at the rim and chased down two guys in transition for block shots (one ended up being a goaltending call, but still impressive). His motor was certainly running today. He also hit a spot up 3-pt attempt and easily beat a Duke defender to the rim on drives from the perimeter.

He still doesnt have a good feel on offense and probably never will, but if he hits the jumper with consistency, that may be enough for him to have a solid NBA career. His defense is obviously his calling card.

- Mbakwe is still coming off the bench and only played 18 minutes. Not sure he is in good enough shape yet to play a full game. I am sure that he has yet to get back some of that explosiveness that he had prior to his injuries. Also, Plumlee appeared to tower over him.

Quick Hitters on Duke vs Kentucky

I'm wearing down after a full day of hoops, so Im just going to bullet a few things while the game is fresh in my mind.

1) Poythress had his coming out party. He was quiet in the Maryland game and hadn't stood out in Kentucky scrimmages from what I heard. Tonight he got 20 points on 9-13 shooting, most off dunks. They didn't run many plays for him, and the ones they did were cuts to the hoop, but Poythress made himself a presence by attacking the offensive glass - he had 5 boards. He was way too much of a bully for Rasheed Sulaimon to handle in the second half. Poythress took advantage of that matchup the way he should.

Poythress still has a long ways to go as he is more of a power forward at this point. He hasn't shown any playmaking ability and his jumper is still a question mark. He is best when he is starting his offense in the mid-range area, where he showed nice touch on a jumper. He's in a similar position that Adonis Thomas was in last year, but with the talent around him he should generate more hype and get comparisons to Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. They both have great energy, but their games are different. MKG is a better ball handler and pass while Poythress has a better looking shot and much more strength.

2) Rasheed Sulaimon started off 0-5 from the field, but he was a big help in their win. He looks like he could convert to a Jrue Holiday-esque point guard in the NBA. Even as a shooting guard, Sulaimon has a nice future at the next level. He is able to get into the lane and kick it out off the dribble all while being under control. He is a good passer and smart decision maker - 4 assists and zero turnovers tonight. He looked to make plays whenever the ball was in his hand and got hot late from 3-pt range.

3) Archie Goodwin on the other hand, plays out of control most of the time. Unfortunately, of the two, Goodwin was the one asked to play point guard for his team since Harrow was out. He did have 4 assists but also turned it over 4 times. Coach Cal has compared him to Tyreke. That can be both a good and bad things. And I think thats the way it should be taken.

4) It seems like Cauley-Stein and Goodwin are the two guys Cal yells at the most. Cauley-Stein actually played WR in high school and is so fluid for a seven footer. Its actually scary watching him move around the court so easily at that size. He looks like a future first round. There is still plenty for him to learn.

5) In the matchup of stretch PFs, Id give the edge to Kelly. Wiltjer struggled. I do think Kelly is the better player and more ready for the next level at this point, but Wiltjer has more time to develop. Kelly wasn't at Wiltjer's level as a sophomore.

6) Nerlens Noel has been OK for me. Some may be disappointed if they came in with too high of expectations, but he has met mine so far. He was able to get good post position and make some easy buckets for a guy with his athleticism. He created a few steals and swatted a few shots. He got on the floor, played hard, and didn't try to do too much. He has had to face two good centers in Len and Plumlee and they both had good games against him. But hey, Plumlee has 3 years of experience on him. He should dominate him.

7) Speaking of Plumlee, he was active yet again. He also turned it over 5 times and dealt with foul trouble before fouling out. He manages to utilize his athleticism and shaky skill set enough to score. He still has no reliable moves that translate to the NBA, but his energy, rebounding, and athleticism around the hoop are good enough to make him a first round pick. Im not buying the rest of the hype on him.

8) Also I have to mention Seth Curry, who was Duke's best player tonight. He was able to score 23 points against a team full of NBA athletes - Curry's draft stock is certainly not dead.