Examining The Power Forward Class (Sans Anthony Bennett and Cody Zeller)

In today's NBA, the power forward role has grown to be the most diverse position in the NBA. There are still some throwback post up guys, but there are plenty of more athletic combo forwards flying up and down in transition. You also have the energy guys, the big bodied rebounders, the stretch forwards, defensive specialist, and guys that contribute a little from each of the group. Because of the wide variety of power forwards, it can be hard to rank them. Different teams prefer different things based on style of play, need, and if they are ready to win right away.

In my opinion, ranking these players may not be the best way to do things. I feel it will be easier to divide them in groups and break them down that way and allowing the reader to decide which power forward would fit best for their teams needs.

At the top, there are two clear lottery talents that definitely lead the way in Anthony Bennett and Cody Zeller. I've covered both extensively already and feel that the gap between Bennett and Zeller is a lot smaller than what it is perceived by others. Kelly Olynyk is also in this group, although he isn't a lock for the lottery like Bennett and Zeller are. He could go there, but his floor certainly looks like the mid to late first round. Either way, Id like to use this platform to talk about the other power forwards in this draft who don't have much first round buzz.

*Names in italics represent a player having at least a 50/50 shot at getting drafted.*

The Bruisers

Richard Howell 
Trevor Mbakwe 
Jack Cooley
Reginald Buckner

These are the type of guys who use their physical strength to their advantage. They aren't the most skilled players, but they rebound the ball with great efficiency. There has been a history of these guys getting undervalued, but the league is steering away from the more with the evolution of the more perimeter oriented forwards. There are plenty of these guys spread throughout Europe and the D-League. Without much of an upside, it begs the question if they are even worth a second round pick given that you can pick up a more experienced one on the market somewhere. These are guys like Darnell Jackson, Josh Powell, Jeff Adrien, DJ White, Rick Jackson, and Richard Hendrix.

In my personal opinion, Richard Howell is the best of the bruisers this year. His biggest competition is Trevor Mbakwe, but Howell didn't disappear from games and his motor never stopped running. Thats what you look for in a bruiser. Howell is younger, more durable, more skilled, and doesn't have the character concerns Mbakwe has. Mbakwe though, is the bigger physical presence and has shown he can be a terror to stop at times.

The Stretch Fours

Erik Murphy
Ryan Kelly
Kenny Kadji
Grant Jerrett
Brock Motum
Christian Watford

The stretch four has came along as teams have looked to spread the court more. These guys are asked to knock down shots from behind the arc consistently, but help out in other areas enough so they are a liability. Certain teams use them more than others and good defensive systems help hide their weaknesses. They also generally need to play next to a rim protector and/or big time rebounder. Like with the bruisers, there are guys in the D-League and overseas that can perhaps do the job just as good if not better, while possessing more experience. These are guys like Maarty Leunen, Justin Harper, Rob Kurz, and Craig Brackins.

Of the guys on the list, I give Murphy the edge over Ryan Kelly because he's a better rebound and more of a fluid athlete. I also think you can make a very good argument that Murphy is the best shooter of the group as well. Along with those two, Grant Jerrett could be worth a draft pick although he is a couple of years away. Why waste a pick on a regular old stretch forward who can't contribute right away when you can sign a guy like Harper or Brackins for the minimum contract out of the D-League? Its a question to ponder when selecting in the second round.

*I covered Deshaun Thomas and Robert Covington with the small forward group, but both could also spend some time playing stretch forward in the league.

The Raw Athlete

CJ Leslie (Lacks BBIQ, strength, motor/consistency)
Tony Mitchell (Lacks motor, subpar production vs low-majors)
Amath M'Baye (Lacks skillset, position)
Norvel Pelle (Lacks skillset, experience, strength, BBIQ)
Deshawn Painter (Nondescript PF, lacks production for mid-major, strength, post game)

These are guys that possess the NBA level length and athleticism to make scouts drool, but for one reason or another, just aren't as good of players as their athleticism suggests. Whether it is energy, IQ, strength, offensive skills, or position - there is something missing that keeps these guys from being a lottery pick. Lots of teams draft these guys looking for a defensive stopper, but not all of them have that mentality to own that role. The intrigue of these guys comes from the perceived upside. Among the plethora of guys that fit this mold that are currently without a NBA contract are: Shawn James, Willie Reed, Stephane Lasme, and Chris Wright (Dayton).

Of these guys, Tony Mitchell has the best chance to make an impact in the NBA. He played in a bad situation that arguably effected his performance and could turn it on in the right situation in the NBA. He's a better gamble than CJ Leslie who has proved time and time again that he doesn't have the energy or IQ to be effective at the next level. Mitchell has more potential defensively than any other power forward in this draft.

The Skilled Big (Back to the Basket)

Brandon Davies
Jackie Carmichael

This is kind of your throw back power forward, the type that actually showed off a post game in college basketball. These aren't guys who are just bangers inside or undersized forwards, these guys have solid size and a legitimate post game to go to. In today's NBA, their games don't directly translate unless they are dominant with their back to the basket, but their skillset can be valuable on the right team. These guys usually come from college teams that featured them on offense and have a good feel for the game. Guys like Lawrence Roberts, Draymond Green, and Ryan Gomes all were this type of player in college.

For these guys to succeed at the next level, they have to be able to transform to bigger threats facing up. Guys like Gomes and Green have been able to translate their saavyness in the post to other parts of their games. Brandon Davies has already shown the same ability at Portsmouth and Carmichael also has shown the ability to pick and pop.

Undersized Energy Guys

Andre Roberson
Arsalan Kazemi
Ed Daniel
DJ Stephens
Taylor Smith
Elias Harris

There is some overlap with the bruisers in the sense that they earn their money through rebounding, energy, and defense. The difference is these guys are usually shorter and less bulky, while possessing more versatility on the defensive end. They can get up and down the court, move very well laterally on defense, and rebound the ball. These guys also generally lack much offensive skill at all, generating most of their offense off fastbreaks, cuts, and offensive rebounders. These are guys like Quincy Acy, Taylor Griffin, Demarre Carroll, and plenty more.

Andre Roberson and Arsalan Kazemi have the best chance at getting drafted as they have been two of the best rebounders in college basketball this season. They also both have experience playing the small forward spot. While neither have shown the offensive skills to play SF, they both have shown the versatility to make you believe they can cover both forward spots on defense.

Faceup PFs

Mike Muscala
Kelly Olynyk
Romero Osby
Laurence Bowers
Keith Clanton
Mouphtaou Yarou
Dante Taylor
Jared Berggren

This is a group with more diversity than others as you have some guys on the list that are closer to combo forwards while the top guys have legit big man size. Some of these guys are considered faceup fours because they don't have the range to be a stretch forward or any other noticeable attribute to fit any of the other categories. For most of these guys, they are pretty nondescript as players with the thought of playing in the NBA as a long shot. There are countless amounts of these types that have flirted with being drafted.

For guys like Muscala and Olynyk however, they are on this list because along with shooting from the outside, they can also take defenders off the dribble or work in the most. Unlike the other ones who aren't stretch forwards because they lack range, these two aren't stretch forwards because they can offer teams more than simply shooting from beyond the arc. And since the faceup PF is the most common among all the PFs in today's NBA, Muscala and Olynyk both already have their role carved out for them. Their transition to the NBA is a lot easier to see than a lot of guys in other groups, which is why both of them could potentially go in the first round.

Summary:

Overall, none of these guys look like potential stars and few will end up as starters. But there is value in each of the draftable players that a coach can make use of if he understands what they bring to the table. In today's game, a starting power forward is generally a guy that you can put in multiple categories from above. Whether it is a bruising power forward that plays with a relentless amount of energy (Faried, Millsap), a skilled big with a faceup game (David West), a bruising rebounder who can stretch the floor (Kevin Love), an athlete with tenacious energy (Kevin Garnett, Josh Smith), a skilled big with a bruising body (Al Jefferson), or an athletic forward with a faceup game (Thaddeous Young). Lots of these guys could be thrown into even more of the categories and that is what makes them special players.

In this draft (excluding Zeller and Bennett), maybe there are some players that are able to bring multiple things to the table and become starters. Muscala and Olynyk could both develop into even better shooters and become even more deadly with added NBA 3-pt range. Tony Mitchell could be a Josh Smith-type if he adds the necessary energy to his game. Richard Howell already is a bruiser with a relentless motor, but does he do anything else at a NBA level? Jackie Carmichael is certainly a skilled post player and could evolve to a nice do-it-all type of player ala David West? These are the guys that have the potential to break out be at least key rotational guys, if not good starters.

Takeaways from the NBA Combine

The NBA Combine generates a ton of buzz every year in Chicago and the results of the combine are often overanalysed and discussed ad nauseum. NBA teams can get up in the numbers too, but the good teams understand that each number should be taken with a grain of salt. Some numbers are more relevant than others and some players' numbers are also more important.

The combine does present an opportunity to see all the draft prospects in a gym together and see who passes the eye test. Generally, its good to at least note the outliers in both directions. Rudy Gobert had measured with a 7-9 wingspan in Eurocamp previously, but seeing him against other NBA prospects in the flesh makes more of an impact. Gobert generated the most hype out of anyone these past 3 days in Chicago.

Other things to note is who consistently goes hard in drills, who looks out of shape, and shooting mechanics. Getting caught up in the number of shots a guy makes isn't a good idea, but seeing how quick and consistent a prospects stroke is worth watching. For the most part - you know that bad and the good shooters. But having them all in one gym, you can get a better idea on who has the quickest releases. If you are among the best shooters AND have a quick release, that is something noteworthy.

The athletic testing is where you have to be most careful. There are players who train specifically to do well on these tests during the few weeks prior to the event. When you look at data from previous years, there really is no pattern in terms of who succeeds and who fails. Plenty of guys have flopped in athletic testing and went on to have great NBA careers, while there have also been countless workout warriors. If you take a look at the trainers players are training with, you do notice that certain trainers produce better results than others.

For example, Cody Zeller and Victor Oladipo both killed the athletic testing and have been working with the same trainer who constantly produces results. Kenny Kadji, Shane Larkin, and Adonis Thomas all worked out with the same trainer as well and performed better than many thought they would.

This doesn't mean that their leaping ability is better than they showed in college, it just shows that they have practiced these drills. Its important to understand the different approaches prospects have coming into the combine and how it affects their testing. Nothing beats watching game film to measure a guy's athleticism.

Another thing to note is the difference between standing vertical and the maximum vertical. For a big man, more times than not, they will be jumping from a standstill position off of two feet in games. Thats why it was impressive to see Cody Zeller measure with the top standing vertical in the entire draft.

At the same time, the most important thing for big men is getting off the floor quickly - the combine doesn't measure that. While Zeller can just high (which is needed to make up for his short standing reach), he doesn't get off the ground super quick.

Rudy Gobert only produced a standing vertical of 25 inches, but with a record high standing reach, there is no reason for him to have to be able to jump 12 feet in the air. The game in the NBA is played above the rim, but not that high. As long as Gobert gets off the ground fairly quickly - and he does - his vertical is not a big deal at all. He won't need to jump higher than 25 inches to ever block a shot in the NBA.

Meanwhile, guards need to do better in the maximum vertical leap. There are two foot jumping perimeter players and then there are the guys that can fly to the rim on the run by jumping off of one foot. Victor Oladipo does that as well as anyone. Ben McLemore is another guy who excels throwing down dunks on the run.

You also have guys that test well athletically, but don't ever show that kind of athleticism in games. Their numbers are more irrelevant. Kenny Kadji comes to mind.

A guy like CJ Leslie killed the lane agility and ran the court as fast as anyone, but he doesn't know what to do with that speed in the games. Its great to run the court fast, but it is even better to run the court every possession. Leslie is a guy who takes a lot of plays off and doesn't always go at full speed - which is why you shrug off his sprint times.

Leslie's agility times should also be taken with a grain of salt. His feet more faster than his brain. While he has quick feet, all that does a lot of times is take him out of position quicker. Instincts and IQ and more important when playing defense inside - not agility. All this says about Leslie is he can run around on defense like a chicken with its head cut off - without any idea where he is suppose to be.

Shane Larkin posted a billboard day during the athletic testing and that is something that will help him out. During the measurements, he measured with a wingspan less than 6 feet. In the history of the draft, very few guys with that kind of length have ever gone in the first round. To counter that measurement, Larkin went out and dominated the drills today. So when his size is questioned, scouts can turn to his "freakish athleticism" to justify why Larkin will be different from the gang of T-Rex armed guards that have failed before him.



Anyway, the top 5 seems to be as wide open as ever after today. Noel only weighed in at 206 pounds, which is obviously extremely light for a big man. Noel said his injury has caused him to drop weight, but even at 220 pounds he still needs to add a considerable amount of weight.

Porter, Burke, and McLemore remain my next three best prospects. They all did fairly well in Chicago. At this point, I tcould make an argument for any of the four to be the first overall pick. My board is extremely fluid at the top 4 spots and Noel is no sure bet to go #1. He's the biggest risk for sure and its hard to turn down sure things like Burke and Porter.

After them, Rudy Gobert has begun to creep up in the picture. As mainly a college basketball guy, I hadn't watched Gobert near enough this year but as I watch more of him, the more I become convinced he could make a push towards the top 5. One of his biggest concerns is his weight, but he weighed more than guys like Dieng, Olynyk, Mbakwe, Withey, Zeller, and Muscala. Thats almost as big for him as his massive length. Oh yea, and Gobert is nowhere near as raw as Ajinca was. Thats not a fair comparison.

12/20/12 Games to Watch and a Recap of Last NIght

I didn't get a chance to recap the North Carolina State/Stanford game yesterday, so I'll do it now since it was a notable game.

Lorenzo Brown was the "good" Lorenzo Brown that we saw last year. He finally got the better of another good guard - Chasson Randle being the victim. Brown did a great job finding the hot hand early on - finding Scott Wood in position to hit 5 3-pters in the first half. After Wood cooled down, Brown looked for his own offense in the second half and finished with 24 points on 15 shots.

Brown did a nice job pushing the ball in transition. His craftiness with the ball allowed him to navigate through traffic at a controlled pace, using his size to help shield the ball, and hit an array of floaters in the lane. He also showed the Eurostep a couple of times. The eurostep, his size, his craftiness, and his touch help make him a very good scorer inside when he is aggressive.

Brown is not the only NC State player who uses to floater to score in bunches - all three of Rodney Purvis's field goals came off floaters and TJ Warren has a very good floor game as well. Purvis was key in the first half before Brown took over and was able to blow by Stanford's slowish guards at ease. I cant think of another team that uses the floater as well as the Wolfpack.

Inside, CJ Leslie really struggled in the first half. He was bullied by Dwight Powell (who scored 15 first half points) and completely out of sync offensively. He airballed a long fadeaway, turned it over on a lazy pass, and took multiple bad shots on out of control drives. In the second half, some of his wild plays started to actually fall for Leslie and he finished with 16 points. Still, its been the same story with Leslie for years. He has awful offensive possessions and then shows the flash of the spectacular. The bottom line is he doesn't have anything reliable on the offensive end. His jumper is inconsistent and his awkward, out of control drives are more style over substance. He is the next Andray Blatche.

Meanwhile, Richard Howell continues to impress. He was always the garbage man for Leslie, but has taken over - for now at least - as the Pack's leading scorer. He is still mainly a garbage man, but he's terrific at his role. Howell is so tough inside finishing through contact, has good footwork, and surprisingly quick moves to the bucket. Unlike Leslie, he has efficient ways to score. On top of that, he's a better rebounder and worlds better defensively. He's certainly the better player at this stage and Leslie's "prospect" label is wearing off. When this season is over, I wouldn't be surprised to see Howell be selected OVER Leslie in the draft.

In last night's action, there was a good chance to see three first round power forwards in Jackie Carmichael, James Michael McAdoo, and Anthony Bennett.

Carmichael was huge in a slight upset at Dayton. He does a great job moving his feet on both sides of the ball and being active. He is a big guy, but moves lightly on his feet and is surprisingly explosive. He draws charges and guards the pick and roll with expertise. Offensively, he does a great job sealing off defenders on his back, has patience in the post, and has great footwork. He has soft touch around the rim and can step out and hit the jumper. With his skillset and BBIQ, Im not sure he is even capable of a bad game. He had 25 points and 14 rebounds last night.

Illinois State actually almost lost the game even though they were up 7 with under two minutes left. In a puzzling move, Illinois State called a timeout while up 4 points with under a minute to play. At the time there was 4 seconds left in the shot clock, but Carmichael had the ball in post and looked capable of getting a good shot. Instead, the timeout was called by the coach and the turned it over try to get the ball inbounds. If you call a timeout in that situation, you better have a great inbound play in mind. That play was a possible 4 point swing and gave Dayton a chance for a game winner in the final seconds. Illinois State got lucky to hold on.

For UNLV and Anthony Bennett, they had a date with Northern Iowa and looked great early. Anthony Bennett dominated on offense early - hitting a couple of threes and looking like a guard in transition. Its amazing how well he plays in transition at his size. He had a play where he grabbed a rebound, brought it up with the defense already set, yet still was able to take it all the way into the lane for a lay-up. He made it look easy.

And while Bennett had some jaw dropping plays, he didn't take advantage of Northern Iowa's size inside. His points came on jumpers and off the dribble. The problem with Bennett is he doesn't handle physical play much. He can out-muscle guys, but when the defense pushes back, he backs down. It happened last game against UTEP and UNI followed the same plan. Bennett was quiet in the second half mainly because he couldn't get good post position.

And defensively, Bennett played terrible post defense and allowed smaller UNI players to rebound over him. His help defense has been a problem this year, but he did have 3 solid blocks in attempt to block the rim.

From the surface, this looked like another Bennett statement game and he really did have some impressive stretches - specifically in the first half. But there are still things that hold him back from being an ideal top 5 selection.

James Michael McAdoo struggled again and the North Carolina Tar Heels ended up losing to Texas. Texas was too physical for UNC and were able to hit shots from outside. Like Jackie Carmichael, McAdoo has good footwork, explodes quickly, and a good feel for the game. Unlike Carmichael, McAdoo plays soft, rushes decisions, and takes low percentage shots. McAdoo was pushed around all game and unable to mix it up inside against the Longhorns bigs. McAdoo has a nice ceiling, but he won't reach it if he doesn't show more toughness and strength. Hes making the game harder on himself.

Games to Watch Tonight

Lehigh at North Texas 8pm

The big game on tonight's schedule is North Texas vs Lehigh which tips at 8pm. By last count I saw, 54 NBA scouts had requested credentials to tonights game - easily the most scouts congregating for a single game (no tournament) this year. All the buzz is about Tony Mitchell and CJ McCollom, two low-major players who have a shot at being selected in this years lottery.

Another reason all the attention will be in Denton tonight is because there aren't many other good games. Duke, Michigan, UCF, Memphis, and Arkansas all play and are worth checking out, but none of the games offer much to see. 

Preview of Tonight's Action

Tonight marks the start of the ACC/Big Ten Challenge and with all the conference re-alignment, maybe one of the last as its going to start getting hard to keep track of which teams are actually in these conferences.

Games to Watch:

Indiana vs North Carolina 9:30 ESPN

Why not get this one out of the way first? James Michael McAdoo vs Cody Zeller. Two guys that could use a big game to get momentum moving in their direction again. At this point, McAdoo is facing questions about his post skills while Zeller has detractors saying he can't create separation. Both do have nice feel and footwork in the post and that should be on display tonight.

Zeller will have to deal with an athletic North Carolina frontline and also Joel James' monster frame. Don't expect Zeller and McAdoo to be matched up a lot.

McAdoo will likely be on Christian Watford most of the time, a guy he should be able to back down a little. McAdoo was quoted in SI today saying he has been focused more on footwork instead of trying to back down anyone, but tonight would be a good night to try to show some toughness against Watford.

Watford will drag him out to the perimeter and force McAdoo to show his perimeter defense skills. Some actually think McAdoo can play some small forward at the next level, but I highly doubt it.

I'm also interested in seeing Reggie Bullock against Victor Oladipo, two energy small forwards I am really high on. Both play great defense and run the court, but their offensive games couldn't be more different. It will be interesting to see how they compete against each other as they should cover one another.

Finally, it may be Jordan Hulls and PJ Hairston that steal the headlines from the big names. Hairston has came on strong as of late and always looks to shoot when he's in. Hulls is extremely tough and a great leader - one of the best in the country. He's slowly developing a reputation as Indiana's go to guy in big games and could steal the headlines.

North Carolina State vs Michigan 7:30 ESPN

Leading the night off for ESPN will be a matchup that may actually feature more future pros than its nightcap. We have Trey Burke vs Lorenzo Brown, both of whom could be drafted in the first round. Lorenzo Brown has already been abused by the younger Marcus Smart this season and can't afford to get worked again. It may be in the cards though, as Burke has been carving up defenses since he's stepped on campus. With the emergence of other scorers, Im interested to see if Burke starts to vanilla down his game more and turn into more of a facilitator. He can dominate the ball at times.

On the wings, Hardaway Jr is coming off one of the best stretches of his career and Glenn Robinson III looks like a real stud. Hardaway will see a lot of freshman Rodney Purvis, who has been one of the bright spots for NC State early on. He has played with great energy and should present a solid test for Hardaway.

Glenn Robinson III may get a chance to step up into a bigger role tonight if he draws Scott Wood on offense. Robinson has taken a back seat to Michigan's backcourt, but has been very efficient in his chances. A chance to see Robinson III take advantage of Wood in an increased workload would be nice.

Robinson may also see some TJ Warren who has joined Purvis as the lone bright spots for NC State. Warren just has a knack for scoring and getting easy baskets around the hoop. He also has great touch on his jumper. He's one to watch out for down the road.

Inside, Michigan has a very smart frontcourt that could use CJ Leslie's aggressiveness against him. Jordan Morgan and Mitch McGary move their feet well and understand defensive positioning. Leslie could be in for a long night. Richard Howell is usually solid.

One thing to watch for is Michigan's pick and roll defense. They are very aggressive in their hedging and take the ball out of the ball handlers hand, but leave themselves vulnerable to other open players. NC State has shot 3s at a better than 40% clip this season thanks to Scott Wood and Rodney Purvis. If Lorenzo Brown runs the point like he should (which he hasn't) and finds the open man off of picks, NC State has a chance at the upset.

This is a big game for Brown who has found his stock dropping quickly so far. He's talented but has shown terrible decision making and a lack of leadership. From an upperclassman, that is unacceptable.

Minnesota vs Florida State 7:15 ESPN2

Minnesota vaulted themselves into the top 25 after a solid showing in the Battle 4 Atlantis. Florida State has started to play better after opening the season with an ugly loss to South Alabama. Both teams can get after it on defense and it starts with Michael Snaer and Rodney Williams, two of the better players in the country.

And while they can really get after it on defense, its the offensive end where they will need to show what they can do tonight. Snaer has been great at getting to the line all year and I'd like to see him do it against a strong perimeter defense and the always lurking Williams. For Rodney, Id just like to see him continue to hit jumpers and attack aggressively from the perimeter. We know his skills aren't great, but he's done a nice job putting his athleticism to use this year.

There are some other marginal prospects in this game - Ian Miller, Andre Hollins, Austin Hollins, and Okaro White - and they all should have some chances to go up against each other. Andre Hollins just dropped 41 points on Memphis and he should be over the hangover of elated-ness that caused him to only score 8 against Stanford.

Also, Trevor Mbakwe will be continued to be monitored to see how his athleticism is coming along. He's coming off the best game of his young season.

Also check out Maryland's Alex Len take on Northwestern and Pittsburgh and Steven Adams against Howard. Maryland has been playing well and should get the win, but Alex Len hasn't had another game that has rivaled his opening performance against Kentucky.

Adams received criticism for his recent play, but its all part of a process. Adams wasn't any worse than he was when I wrote about him at the start of the year, he just went up against some tougher competition. He actually has been showing noticeable improvements each game.

His 13 points in 24 minutes last game against Delaware are misleading as most of his points came in the final minutes, but the confidence that it gives him could be big. Adams was able to hit a jumper and finish in transition and off of a pick and roll. He showed the flashes that make his potential so mouth watering. Facing Howard tonight is good timing, as Dixon can use this game to focus on building off that confidence Adams gained from last game. I expect tonight to be the best chance to see what Adam's is capable of doing so far. He is going to continue to get better each game. His stock is fine.  

NC State too much for the Nittany Lions

It was our first look at the Wolfpack's loaded team this year, a team suddenly in the national spotlight as the favorite to win the ACC. The Wolfpack have a roster loaded with talent including Rodney Purvis, Lorenzo Brown, CJ Leslie, TJ Warren, Tyler Lewis, Scott Wood, and Richard Howell. Ok, thats pretty much their whole roster, but thats what is so impressive - they have big names at every position.

The Wolfpack are certainly the most talented team in the ACC, but how is their leadership? How about their consistency? Their experience level? Their maturity? The ability to take care of the ball? Their ability to close out games? Who can honestly say they trust them to beat Duke in a do or die game?

Last year, they had Duke up against the ropes with a 16 point halftime lead. The wheels came off in the late stages though, and the Blue Devils won by 5. This NC State team is a year older at the core - CJ Leslie and Lorenzo Brown - but are they wiser? 

In the first test against, Penn State, Lorenzo Brown and CJ Leslie both showed plenty of talent but an unhealthy obsession with flash. Leslie is not the same careless player he was up until last year, but he still makes dumb mistakes and tries to do too much. And he settles too much for jumpers and continues to fail to box out consistently on defense.

For Brown, he makes hard plays look easy a lot of the times. Both guys are able to make some spectacular looking plays. Both also fail to make easy plays consistently. We saw it again tonight with Brown. Too many no-look passes and him trying to thread the needle in between multiple defenders. Too many times he tried to make a play out of nowhere instead of looking to set up sharpshooter Scott Wood with an easy jumpshot. The Wolfpack have one of the nation's deadliest shooters yet fail to utilize him consistently.

Brown got a chance to play off the ball some too, where he can be effective. Tyler Lewis though, looks like he will need some time before he adjusts to the college game. When the game is on the line, the ball will be in Lorenzo Brown's hand to make good decisions. NC State will be able to run plenty of teams off the court, but ultimately they will have to face the likes of Duke and beat them in close games while executing their halfcourt offense and managing the clock.

Gottfried was able to get Leslie to change his attitude when he took over the team, but he still has plenty of work to do with this team. I ranked Lorenzo Brown high on my PG rankings with the assumption that he will tone down his game in the NBA. It may be too big of an assumption to make at this point. He has first round talent, but does he have the mental capacity to run a pro team?

And does Leslie have it in him mentally to survive on his own in the NBA? He's a guy at this point who needs to find the right situation in the NBA. In a lot of places, he will fail.

On a more positive note, Rodney Purvis hit some jumpers and was able to create off the dribble. He can drive and kick as well as take it to the rim. The future of the shooting guard position is looking up with guys like Sulaimon, Goodwin, Purvis, Shabazz, and Smart. 

Other notes:

- Eric Bossi said TJ Warren has a bit of Antoine Walker in him. Interesting to say the least. Warren lit of the hoop with 22 points. 

- For Penn State, Tim Frazier is a solid player. He is a better pro prospect than Talor Battle, his incumbent was. Frazier operates out of the pick and roll most of the time and has a nice crossover. He can get into the mid-range area where he has a quick floater he can get off. He also knows how to change speeds and is a crafty finisher at the rim. Frazier had too much of a load to handle tonight though, and shot 6-20 from the field.

- For me, Richard Howell is nothing special. Some view him as an early second rounder, but I'd much rather have a guy like Jarnell Stokes. Howell has a solid mid-range jumper and rebounds well, but he's a guy who doesn't do anything well enough to find a spot in the league. He has carved out a nice role on NC State capitalizing on Leslie's arrant shots. 

Scouting Report: CJ Leslie

Height: 6'8.5''
Wingspan: 7'1.5''
Weight: 198lbs
Bday: 6/25/91

Team: North Carolina State
Class of 2014

Leslie had a rough freshman year and it showed in his body language

It seems like we have been waiting forever for CJ Leslie to turn into the dominating force he has the potential to be, but in reality, he is just coming off of his sophomore season. And if you look at the numbers during the final stretch, Leslie might have quietly already become the polarizing star we hoped for.

For Leslie, it has been a roller coaster ride. Tim Crothers did an excellent job providing a window into the mind and heart of Leslie a few days ago for SI while explaining the ups and downs of his stay in Raleigh. No need to rehash that article, but while the overall conclusion was that CJ (or Calvin) has matured a great deal since his freshman year, there still are some worrisome concerns about his character.

First off, Leslie isn't even a year removed from his "old self". The player who would sulk during practices, play selfish basketball, give up and down effort, and distance himself from those around him. The guy who didn't show up to his very first class of college. The CJ who Mark Gottfried aimed to change. He sought out to improve his body language, engage him in the game, and hold him accountable for his level of play.

Leslie was a different player at the second half of last year, helping lead the Pack to the NCAA tournament

Gottfried has been able to turn Leslie around, but it hasn't been an overnight process. You can tell Leslie is a lot more comfortable now at NC State, which is the reason he cites in coming back for his junior year. He likes where he is at now. He calls North Carolina State his "comfort zone". But what happens when he has to go to the next level? If he gets a coach he doesn't like? If things aren't going good for him? It is hard to say that he wouldn't revert back to the old CJ Leslie. In the NBA, he is going to be expected to practice hard, play games with energy, and be consistent for 82 games. Nobody will be holding his hand. Its a concern that NBA personnel will have to pry at during the interview process and this upcoming season.

At the end of last season though, everything was going good for NC State and himself. This year you can expect the same with a team that is one of the favorites to win the ACC. This year won't answer some of the questions about his ability to handle adversity and play hard at all times.

The way he performed at the end of last year though, averaging 18.3 points and 9 rebounds per game, showed what his potential is all about. CJ Leslie may be the best athlete in college basketball. He's a ridiculous leaper, very long and rangy, and has great coordination for a man his size.

His game thrives in transition. He runs the court very well for easy baskets and can also handle it coast to coast himself. He patterns his game after Kevin Garnett and offensively, there are a lot of similarities.

His form certainly needs some refining, but notice the KG-esque lean

He also operates in the halfcourt like his idol. He likes to get the ball around the foul line extended area and face up like a guard. He can go in isolation mode from this area, using risky crossovers in crowded areas to create room, in effort to get to the hoop or shoot a jumper. In this respect, CJ Leslie makes things too difficult for himself as the added flare is not necessary. Leslie is such a special athlete that his first step and explosiveness is enough to get by college power forwards. There is no need to overdribble. He also makes his shots more difficult. He has plenty of size and lift on his jumper that he can get if off over anyone, yet he chooses to crossover defenders and shoot off balance fadeaways way too much. He takes too many long 2-pters in general, but getting rid of the habit to fadeaway like KG does, should make him more efficient.

Efficiency is one area that Leslie can struggle from. He doesn't have the best shot selection or a power post game inside. His only post moves rely on his quickness. He shot 43% from the field his freshman year but did a great job getting above 50% last season (one thing he did was cut out nearly 2/3rds of his 3-pt attempts from the year before). And in his last 11 games, he was even better. Still,  when projecting him to the NBA, he needs a more defined offensive skillset. He can't rely on long jumpers and pure athleticism around the rim completely. It has been shown time and time again to be a death sentence for athletic power forwards. Also, his turnovers have not improved at all. Leslie tries to make too many plays and can be wild with his dribble. Finding a in-between game would be a great help. Right now he has the long jumper and the drive to the hoop. A little one handed floater or hook shot would make him very tough to defend.

Leslie getting low and exercising his tremendous first step

For a big man, Leslie is very slithery. He can turn corners and drive by defenders while slipping through small cracks in the defense. He does a good job of using his body and absorbing contact as well. He shows excellent body control at the rim, much more control than he shows on drives, and gets a lot of "and-1" opportunities. His athleticism is obvious a big key in his ability to finish, but he doesn't strictly rely on that.

His footwork leaves a lot to be desired and he travels way too much, but he does have one reliable basic move in the post. He likes to get deep position and quickly turn the corner over his left shoulder and finish with a reverse lay-up. Its simple, yet very effective. Farther away from the hoop near the baseline Leslie can start facing up and then use a pump fake or spin move to get close to the hoop with his back towards the basket. From there, he is pretty much money.

In his sophomore season, Gottfried gave Leslie a lot more freedom than he had in Lowe's offense. Leslie wasn't just a transition and putback guy anymore, he was able to create his own offense and he responded positively. Gottfried and Leslie are developing a good relationship. You could see Leslie get more and more confident in his skills as the season went on, ultimately having the mindset that nobody could stop him. And for the most part, that was true. In those last 11 games, he scored 14 or more points 10 times.

His offensive game needs a lot of refining, toning down, reshaping, and improvement but he has the tools to work with. He can develop a more consistent jumper. He can add some counter moves and more strength to his post game. He can pick his spots better. He can do all of this stuff, but its going to take a lot of work and a good coach. Leslie will never be the smartest player on offense, but he can eventually be good scorer and show decent efficiency.

Defensively, he needs similar work. He puts himself in bad position to defend the post by gambling for steals on entry passes. He trusts his ability to get a steal more than his ability to get a stop defending man to man in the post. He also stands too upright, shows wavering effort, and poor fundamentals. With more consistent effort, Leslie can be a solid defender. He definitely can make big time plays out that end - thanks to block shots, steals, and the ability to come up with the ball and start the break himself. He's a playmaker on the defense end more than he is a reliable man to man defender.

Overall, Leslie possessing insane physical gifts that give him the ability to dominate college competition even without a polished game. He has great lateral quickness, is a quick and explosive leaper, and runs the court as well as anyone. He is a good straight line driver even though his handles are shaky when trying to do anything more than that, which prohibits him from starting his drives out by the 3-pt line. His shot is still a work in progress, but his tendency to take terrible jumpers his freshman year was toned down to the point where he became more consistent and focused more on his post game.

Moving forward, you can expect Leslie to continue to "wow" you while leaving you wanting more. His character, playing style, effort level, and work ethic will all be obstacles in that could prevent him from going in the lottery. This season Leslie's goals should be to play with 100% effort on defense, cut down his turnovers, and expand his post game. That will be his best shot in getting him to the lottery.