Dwayne Morgan to UNLV is No Reason For Terps Fans to be Upset

St. Frances SF Dwayne Morgan announced today live on DMVElite.com that he will spend his next four years playing basketball for the University of Nevada-Las Vegas. UNLV was the first team to offer Morgan a scholarship and had been in constant contact with him throughout the whole process. After his visit out west in January, Morgan said that it felt like home and it all but sealed the deal on his decision. Maryland was also in the running and Bino Ranson took in many St Frances games during the past year, but they didn't make the same push the Georgetown or UNLV did down the homestretch. Morgan said that Maryland barely contacted him recently and when he made his choice, there was no Maryland hat even in the picture.

The Terrapins may have sensed Morgan was set on UNLV, but at the same time, I don't think he was ever that high of a priority to them. The idea of yet another highly ranked SF getting away from the Terps is a scary thought for their fans after seeing Carmelo Anthony, Rudy Gay, and Donte Greene all blow up en route to heading to the NBA, but Morgan isn't at their level - at least not yet. Morgan is a good recruit, but he isn't a program changer. More importantly, Maryland has their eyes on another local top 30 player in the country and that is Dion Wiley. With Melo Trimble already on board for the class of 2014as well, Maryland has plenty of young perimeter players already.

Assuming Alex Len heads to the NBA draft this year (or even next year), the Terrapins have room for 3 scholarship players on their roster by the time the 2014-15 season comes along. The depth chart will look something like this (a Pe'Shon Howard-less roster!):

PG - Roddy Peters (SO)/Seth Allen (JR)

SG - Nick Faust (SR)/Melo Trimble (FR)

SF - Dez Wells (SR)/Jake Layman (JR)

PF - Evan Smotrycz (SR)/Charles Mitchell (JR)

C - Shaquille Cleare (JR) /Damonte Dodd (SO)

Dion Wiley is said to be a Maryland lean at this point and has been seen at plenty of Maryland games. Terps have shown mutual strong interest in him and were said to be in attendance for over 20 of his games this season. Just my personal opinion, but Wiley is a better player than Morgan at this point and is also ranked higher according to ESPN. So if Maryland feels comfortable about securing Wiley, and I think they do, then there is less of a need for Morgan. 

Furthermore, with Dez Wells and Jake Layman, small forward looks to be their strongest position in the 2014-15 season. Wells could enter the draft a year early potentially, but Layman should still be there (unless Jimmy Dykes has his way and he goes pro) and projects to be a excellent player by the time he is an upperclassmen. Maryland will also have a very strong stable of guards, but when it comes down to it, they'll take Wiley over Morgan because that appears to be their preference.

More importantly is the fact that the Terrapins will need to use at least one scholarship on a big man. They could really use a shotblocker type to protect the rim and also a guy who can play more of a stretch forward role. Smotrycz will fill in as a stretch forward for the next two years and Layman should also be worthy of minutes at PF, but bringing in a big time athlete at that position should be a priority.

Right now the Terps are high on Abdul-Malik Abu who fits the mold and they have also shown interest in Chinanu Onuaku, more of a center type who can provide a strong defensive presence inside. 

It looks like Wiley plus a big is the plan to fill two current two scholarships that they have available, while they could also look to bring in a Juco point guard once Alex Len makes it official that he's heading to the NBA. Terp fans should not be disappointed that a local star got away because it was only to make room for another local star that they believe is better. The idea of a Peters/Trimble/Wiley starting perimeter is exactly what Terps fans should be excited for - three local players that can really fill up the scoreboard. Trimble and Wiley are arguably the two best class of 2014 scorers in the DMV area and they will also provide some much needed outside shooting. The future is still bright in College Park and there are more exciting times ahead.

Uncharted Territory in Lexington

Coach Calipari and Kentucky have made a habit of recruiting one and done players and quickly churning them to the NBA. Coach Cal doesn't rebuild afterwards, he just replaces them with another star studded recruiting class. For some, it may seem unfair. For others, they were fine with hating Kentucky and being happy their favorite college team has players that stick around for their senior season.

Tonight was an unexpected ending to an unexpected season. Kentucky loss to Robert Morris in the first round of the NIT. It was bad enough they were playing in the NIT to begin with, but a loss at Robert Morris is no way to go out. It certainly isn't the best way to make your final impression on NBA scouts. Following the loss, a dejected Archie Goodwin and Alex Poythress both announced their intentions of coming back next year saying "they are not ready for the NBA".

An astute observation and a correct one, as most likely their first stint in the NBA wouldn't come until they spent a year or two playing in empty D-League arenas - a far cry from the life they are currently living in Lexington.

Prospects are always emotional after a loss and often say things they don't mean, but the way Poythress and Goodwin acknowledged the fact they have plenty of work to do, it sounds like they may be back in Lexington. Don't think they aren't a 100% decided yet though - wait until they have time to get away from the media and have runners/agents in their ears. First round promises, the money, loss of playing time, the thought of going through another painful year at Kentucky - the fear of the unknown can get to you.

You see, Kentucky has a new wave of one and done players coming in next year. Goodwin and Poythress now if they stay, are not guaranteed to start next season. How many guys pondering the NBA also have to worry about coming back to school and not receiving minutes? This is the worst fear for the freshman and puts them in unprecedented territory. No they are not ready for the NBA - but will another season in Lexington help their stock if they are coming off the bench? Will they grow more from being in the D-League or under another year of Coach Cal?

The show will continue in Lexington with or without this seasons underachieving crew. The Harrison twins, James Young, Dakari Johnson, Marcus Lee, Derek Willis, and potentially Andrew Wiggins or Julius Randle make up yet another #1 Kentucky recruiting class. And this one is REALLY good, arguably the best class yet.

Coach Cal blamed lack of depth for struggles this year. Not in the sense that he didn't have enough fresh legs to keep his team from getting worn down, but because he didn't have the threat of benching one of his inconsistent freshman in order to motivate him. Coach Cal said his team was "almost hijacked" from his control.

Next year, they shouldn't have that problem. They'll go at least 9 deep with their incoming freshman plus Wiltjer, Polson, and Hood. The hope is obviously that the rest come back so former walk-ons don't have to play again and even if just a couple of guys come back - they shouldn't.

The Wildcats of 2013-14 are fine - they are early favorites to be preseason number one and have a more competitive group coming in, led by an outstanding point guard. But what does this mean for Kentucky in the future? The blueprint for their success now has a mark against it. Incoming recruits looking to go one and done may now have to wonder what will happen if players from the previous group don't make the jump to the NBA. There is a trickle down effect that this failed group of UK freshman could start.

If Goodwin and Poythress stay, someone like Aaron Harrison or James Young may not get a chance to play big minutes. They are both top 10 recruits and also potential lottery picks for 2014. Lack of playing time for them would cause them to potentially have to spend another year in college. Marcus Lee and Dakari Johnson could suffer the same fate if their plans were to leave school after one year.

This could make Kentucky even better in years to come if they don't lose everyone from year to year. It could also cause recruits to think twice about committing to be a Wildcat. Most likely, it will slightly weaken their recruiting classes but help their team overall as they slowly start to cycle through players more like a regular team. More than anything, this could give Wildcats a chance to see a little more continuity from year to year. While this season was a major letdown for the fans, there could be a silver lining in this at the end of the day.

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What do the draft stocks look like of Alex Poythress, Archie Goodwin, and Willie Cauley-Stein look like?

First of all, this article doesn't pertain to Nerlens Noel. He is on his way to a top 5 selection in June and his time in Kentucky is done.

Poythress and Goodwin have showcased lottery potential sporadically throughout the season, but it would be really hard for a lottery team to gamble on either of them at this point. Thats at least what convention wisdom says. Then again, in a draft lacking star talent, Goodwin and Poythress still offer an extremely high ceiling. That potential word for either of them is still there.

Although its crazy to think, Poythress and Goodwin would both be first round picks still in June if you ask me. Thats a reason enough for most prospects to make the jump, but Poythress and Goodwin would both need to also understand that they won't be first round picks because of what they can do now. They will spend at least a year in the D-League and even more years afterwards on the bench. But if they go back to Kentucky, they may not be risking a lot because they will still have that potential attached to their names as well as a chance to live up to that potential and become a lottery pick.

Willie Cauley-Stein also has been discussed as a first rounder, but he's even more raw than his fellow freshman and could fall into the second round. He has to come back next year.

Ryan Harrow is stuck. He already sat out a season transferring and is running out of time to make an impact. Problem is, he is the one guy that won't have a chance to start next year. Playing time will be sparse. But Harrow would go undrafted if he enters the draft. He will be 22 in April which would put him at 23 for the 2014 draft. He'll be 24 for the following draft following a senior season that he may actually have a shot to start - or may not. Harrow could choose not to enter the NBA Draft and go straight to the D-League - preserving his eligibility to enter the draft the following year (this is the route Anthony Stover and Glen Rice Jr had to go this season). Whatever he decides to do, Harrow will have a tough road ahead of him.

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Kentuckys potential 2013-14 Depth Chart?

PG - Andrew Harrison/Ryan Harrow/Jared Polson
SG - Aaron Harrison/Archie Goodwin
SF - James Young/Alex Poythress/Jon Hood
PF - Marcus Lee/Kyle Wiltjer/Derek Willis
C - Dakari Johnson/Willie Cauley-Stein

Whatever way you want to arrange who starts/comes off the bench, that is an extremely deep team. You can argue who sits or starts all day - but the point is Coach Cal will have the OPTION of who starts and sits. And that is a luxury he didn't have next season.

Ladies and gentlemen, Kentucky could be SCARY next year.

The Terps Move to the Big Ten: Rivalries, Recruiting, Reaction

As a lifelong Terrapin fan, I have never even imagined the possibility that the Terrapins could ever switch conferences. While all the conference realignment took place, I felt comfortable that the Terrapins were firmly stationed in ACC territory. The ACC had gained Syracuse and Pittsburgh, pushing the ACC back to the top in terms of basketball talent. With the newcomers helping balance out the map, making Maryland more of a central location, the league was even getting away from their deep Carolina roots. Perhaps a ACC tournament at the Verizon Center was in the future?

Syracuse and Pittsburgh could have been new rivals. Both schools have taken to Maryland to gain recruits and Maryland was back on the rise as a national contender. Folks from Maryland already hate everything Pittsburgh, so the Panthers would have been an easy transition. It was upsetting that the Duke games may be limited to one a year, but new blood was lurking in the water. New rivalries in to go with Maryland's new outlook. Maryland was ready to make their jump back to perennial top 25 contender while the ACC was going to take back over the basketball world.

In the ACC, all will go on without the Terps. While Terrapin fans hated Duke, Duke still has North Carolina. The newcomers still have each other, and Virginia can now officially focus on Virginia Tech if they hadn't already. But for Maryland, they are heading into the Big Ten as the outcast, even though they are joined by Rutgers.

A Maryland/Rutgers rivalry would make some sense, but Rutgers just isn't on Maryland's level for basketball. Plus, Rutgers brought the Baltimore area Ray Rice and for that, plenty of Terps fans are grateful. Maryland and Rutgers are in this thing together, bringing their big markets and fertile basketball recruiting grounds closer to the Big Ten so the rest of the teams can receive more viability.

But Maryland fans need a team to hate. They need a Duke. As arguably the most vulgar fan base in the nation, there needs to be a villain. Michigan State knocked the Terrapins out of the NCAA tournament a few years back thanks to a Korie Lucious buzzer beater. And they've matched up a few times in the Big Ten challenge. With the Michigan/Ohio State rivalry, Michigan State is kind of like Maryland was looking on the outside of the UNC/Duke rivalry.

There is also Penn State, who makes the most geographical sense. Plenty of students make their final college decision choosing between Penn State and Maryland around the Baltimore area. At this point, Penn State fans have been way to outspoken over the past year and have hit a nerve with some people. But a basketball rivalry with Penn State? That isn't any fun.

Wisconsin has Iowa, Minnesota has Wisconsin, and Purdue has Indiana. Maryland is kind of left out in the cold. As one Terp graduate suggested to me, Maryland fans should just hate all of the Big Ten with an intense passion. At this point, I imagine everyone would be on board with that. Nobody is liking this move and of course, Terrapin fans don't need much reason to hate.

Thad Matta already spiced things up saying he wasn't even sure what conference Maryland is in. Good one Thad, too bad Gary Williams is the best coach to come from Ohio State.

If I had to choose, I want a rivalry with Indiana. They just lost out on their annual Kentucky game and they could have something against the Terps as well after they lost in the 2001 NCAA title game. Moving forward, Indiana and Maryland could have some epic recruiting battles. Indiana has recently invaded the DMV area after adding a Team Takeover coach to their staff.

Indiana fans may scuffle at the thought at first, but if Maryland's basketball program rises like it appears to be, the recruiting and actual games will come with much at stake.

The recruiting shake up is another thing. Indiana has shown that they can get DMV kids to consider the Big Ten recently. They got Victor Oladipo, Mo Creek, and had a shot at Beejay Anya. In 2014, Indiana has 4 Maryland kids showing consideration, two of them being top 60 players - Dwayne Morgan and Phil Booth. Both of whom have offers from Maryland as well. It should get even easier one Big Ten takes over the TV market. I don't see Maryland losing out on many DMV kids because of the move.

It will eliminate much of the south, however. For example, Maryland is listed as a possibility for 2015 recruit Daniel Giddens (ranked 16th on ESPN). All of his schools listed besides Maryland are south of Virginia and in the ACC or SEC. You can bet the Terps will no longer appeal to players like that.

The good thing that Rutgers will bring is a chance for Maryland to stay relevant in the northern market. That is big. It may actually even help Maryland with guys like Isaiah Whitehead. And of course, Maryland now has a better shot at players in the vast Middle America.

This is helpful for getting a guy like Rashad Vaughn from Minnesota. He's a top ten player, but even though Maryland has offered, seemed like a stretch for them to get. Now, as a member of the Big Ten, it makes this a little more reasonable.

The biggest adaptation may be playing style. Big Ten plays the most unique playing style from any of the other big 6 BCS conference, playing very physical and slower. Maryland's recent additions of players should actually welcome the physical play - Cleare, Mitchell, Howard, and Wells are all big bodies. And if Len stays, he joins a long line of great Big Ten centers.

Maryland vs Indiana. Len vs Zeller. Now I kind of wish this move had happened sooner!

Semi Ojeleye Joins Matt Jones in Duke's 2013 Class

Semi Ojeleye recently committed to Duke, a player I saw and wrote about down at the Peach Jam. At the time I saw him as a perfect fit in Durham.

Semi Ojeleye struggled from the field shooting 2-9 in the first game I saw him in. In the other game I saw him play, against the Wings, he had a more efficient day. In both matchups, Ojeleye had no problem getting to the line. Ojeleye hasa college ready body, perfect size for a SF and good mass. When he gets the ball, he squares up his defender and looks to attack. He uses a jab step and operates from triple threat mode, although he is best when driving. Driving to the hoop, Ojeleye has a solid first step, but he is especially good at drawing contact. He uses that strong frame to help him finish inside. He is a good athlete, but not an elite athlete on the level of some other small forwards there. He plays under control and plays within his team's game plan. He is obviously a well-coached player and its obvious to see why Coach K is after him. He looks like a Duke player. He is a good all-around player and gets after it on defense. I think in college he is capable of playing a variety of roles, from lead man to a super role player. He will be a core member of whatever high major he chooses, should he go that route, and definitely has the ability to play in the NBA in the future with hard work and production. Ojeleye is a winner.

 He joins Matt Jones in Duke's class of 2013 haul, another play I have had the opportunity to see and write about.

With Matt Jones, you get a very smart player who is lethal from three (11-26 at Peach Jam) and has the length and fluidity to play great defense. He plays team basketball and fits the Duke image to the tee. He has no problem being a role player and has played second fiddle all summer next to Randle. He can be an Arron Aflalo type player in the league. He can handle the ball a bit and rarely turns it over. While he is great at catching and shooting, Jones separates himself from other shooters because he can put the ball on the floor and create his own 3-pt shot. He showed this multiple times in the game against CIA Bounce, where he avenged his measly 4 point performance from his earlier game against Howard Pulley.

Even after seeing Jones have a quiet game in my first ever look at him, I wasn't down on him. He just didn't really impose his force on the game. In the night cap and one of the most anticipated games of the event though, Jones shined. Randle was struggling so Jones knew he had to step up. And he did. He showed his competitive side and motor by defending Wiggins while dropping 26 points (and zero turnovers!!!).

Matt Jones won't post ridiculous numbers at Duke, but I'd take him on a NBA team anyday of the week when he eventually comes out. He has all the tools to be a great role player. He is one of those guys that goes mid-late first round and has no problem carving out a niche.

Duke's Current Projected 2013-14 Lineup

PG - Quinn Cook/Tyler Thornton
SG - Rasheed Sulaimon/Andre Dawkins/Matt Jones
SF - Rodney Hood/Semi Ojeleye
PF - Amile Jefferson/Josh Hairston
C - Marshall Plumlee

It looks like Duke will have a crowded backcourt during their Jones' and Ojeleye's freshman year. Jones had a potential role as a shooter, but with Dawkins redshirting this season and coming back with a clear mind, he will be stuck behind him. Tyler Thornton may be the weak link and Sulaimon and Jones both can play some point, but Thornton will be a senior and I don't see Coach K relegating him to the bench. Sulaimon, Jefferson, and Plumlee all are possible candidates to entering the draft, but none are probable.

Duke should add at least one more notable player to next year's class. A big man is needed and they are legit contenders for Julius Randle and Austin Nichols. Randle just spent a whole day with Coach K and Jeff Capel during an in home visit. 

Recruiting Dominoes - Wiggins/Rathan-Mayes vs The Harrison Twins

With the news of Xavier Rathan-Mayes receiving a personal phone call from Coach Calipari and now today the announcement that he will visit Lexington on Friday, Kentucky seems to be inching closer to offering him a scholarship. Rathan-Mayes announced his top 10 school today and all of them had offered him a scholarship - minus Kentucky.

Rathan-Mayes would be a great get for Kentucky, but the real prize here is Wiggins. Kentucky may or may not be interested in Rathan-Mayes if not for Wiggins, but with Wiggins, they could potentially have a great package deal. It has been discussed a lot that they would like to attend college together, continuing their careers together in which they play high school, AAU, and in national competitions together.Wiggins is one of the best recruits to head to college in quite some time and any team would have a problem taking another top 30 player to have a better chance at his services.

It has been believed for quite some time that Wiggins is down to Kentucky and Florida State. Florida State is where his dad played his college basketball at. Last weekend though, Leonard Hamilton went to Philly to watch Wiggins and CIA Bounce play, but apparently he didn't get the memo that Wiggins didnt make the trip. That prompted folks to speculate that Hamilton and Wiggins aren't as close as made out to be and that Calipari has the inside scoop and edge on the #1 recruit in the nation. For the record, Florida State was also on Xavier Rathan-Mayes top 10 list.

Now I am making a few assumptions here, but most are pretty well accepted as fact. Wiggins should end up reclassifying to the class of 2013. The idea of Wiggins remaining in high school for two more years sounds stupid.

Now, Kentucky is also in a heated battle to land the Harrison Twins. The Harrison twins will also be coming in on the class of 2013 and they will be a package for sure. That means, they will be looking for a place where both of them can shine. At Kentucky, one of them would have to be the third option. And if Rathan-Mayes is there, he could ennd up eating into Aaron Harrison's minutes. Aaron is a scorer and I don't think he wants to be on a team with Wiggins, Rathan-Mayes, his brother, and the other 5 star recruits Kentucky will surely have.

Kentucky may ultimately have the choice on what package they would rather have. I don't think they will be able to swing all four the guys. They may have a better chance of getting just Wiggins and the Harrison twins, leaving Rathan-Mayes out in the cold, but that may be risky since Wiggins and Rathan-Mayes could turn around and go to Florida State. Plus, Rathan-Mayes could be the only guy out of the foursome who may stay in college for a few years. He is a guy you can build around.

Lets assume they choose between Wiggins/Rathan-Mayes and the Harrison twins. Who should they take?

Based of their future outlook, point guard may end up being the biggest position of need. They have Harrow now, but he could leave for the draft either this year or next year. They have no point guard coming in for the Class of 2012. In 2013, they have interest in only Andrew Harrison and Cat Barber at the moment. Having seen both multiple times, I would say there is a huge talent gap between the two.

At small forward, lets act on the assumption that Alex Poythress will be a one and done. In fact, lets assume that Nerlens Noel and Archie Goodwin will be one and done as well. All three are projected lottery picks. Noel is irrelevant, but if Goodwin did stay, that could make it more likely the Wiggins/Rathan-Mayes combo headed to Kentucky.

At shooting guard, Kentucky is in the hunt for plenty of the top guys and will end up with one of them. If a bigger talent like James Young or Wayne Seldon commit, that could be the end for the Harrison twins consideration of Kentucky.

Kentucky is in a great spot and really has the ability to play their cards in a lot of different ways. There is also Jabari Parker to consider. As a Maryland fan, I am hoping they have so many options that they end up blocking the Harrison twins plans of heading to Kentucky. With Xavier Rathan-Mayes getting closer to getting a scholarship offer, it looks like Kentucky could be in the process of doing that. If that happens, the Harrison twins to Maryland looks like a good bet.

(Note: I am not saying that the Harrison twins would be unable to start over Rathan-Mayes, but since they are a package deal, both of them need to go to a place where the are the top options. They won't have a problem standing out at Kentucky, but why choose to play beside Andrew Wiggins when the twins talent alone is good enough to take any solid big 6 school deep in the tourney?)