Scouting Report: Nerlens Noel

Nerlens Noel is the 4th youngest player in the draft class, having just turned 19 in April. He reclassified back to the class of 2012 in order to attend Kentucky a year early and become the next Calipari recruit in line for the number one pick. A torn ACL against Florida in February ended his collegiate career and it will at least delay his NBA career from starting for at least a couple of months into the 2013-14 NBA season.

For some teams, Noel missing most of the NBA season may be intriguing as the see it as an opportunity to score another high draft pick in the 2014 NBA Draft. While only one team will be able to draft Andrew Wiggins, the 2014 NBA Draft is expected to have potential stars located throughout the top 10.

Coming into Kentucky, Noel shouldn't have been expected to replicate Anthony Davis' 2012-13 season. Noel drew obvious comparisons to his predecessor due to his length, elite athleticism, and shot blocking process but he was much more raw on the offensive end. Calling Noel the favorite to be the number one overall pick was realistic, but expecting him to be the same kind of talent Davis was wasn't.

Based on my personal expectations of Noel, I'd say he lived up to his billing in his first and final year in Lexington. In high school, he didn't put up the biggest numbers and seemed preoccupied and disinterested at times. He preferred to play on the outside and handle the ball and didn't always play smart or with energy.

Noel was raw as expected on offense, but he appeared to be nothing but extremely coachable at Kentucky. There was no questioning his energy or his willingness to play inside. He worked on his post game, dove on the floor for loose balls, and became the defensive anchor that he was expected to be. Any questions from Noel's high school days can be attributed to the environment.

Calipari constantly praised his work ethic and character. On the court, he looked like the most mature freshman of the group. His energy was always there and he played his role better than anyone else - making good decisions for the most part. This college season helped erase any of those concerns about him (which may have never been justified in the first place) and for that alone, made the year in Kentucky worth it.

As for his offensive game, it is still extremely raw but you could see him getting better from a game to game basis. He doesn't have strength to hold off defenders in the post and because of this, he had a tendency to rush a lot of his shots. He could get pushed off the ball easily and lose balance in the post and learned quickly that he has to make quick decisions given his current level of strength.

His post game is pretty straight forward now. It consists of a short baby jump hook that he is able to hit with either hand. He almost always faked towards the middle of the court in the post and came back to the baseline to get off his hook shot. Its not very impressive looking, but it was an efficient move and nearly impossible to contest. His range on this shot is very limited however, and he needed to get within 8 to 10 feet of the rim for him to have a shot. That was obviously hard given his lack of strength.

Between his inability to establish post position and his poor free throw shooting, it was very hard for Kentucky to use him as a go-to option on the block - even though he did shoot 59% from the floor. He also came close to having a 1:1 A/TO ratio which is pretty good for a big man, especially a freshman who averaged over 10 points per game.

He's an unselfish player who sees the court well. He isn't able to be a facilitator in the post at the moment because he gets pushed off the blocks to quickly, but can pass the ball when facing the basket. His passing skills date back to his high school days where he would bring the ball up the court at times and gravitate to the perimeter. Those days are gone thankfully, but he's able to find cutters still when he has the ball outside of the paint. Of the draftable big men in this year's draft, Noel only trailed Gorgui Dieng in assists per possession.

Noel's best way to score early on in his career, besides transition and offensive glass points, may be his face up game. Right now, the biggest thing holding him back in that area is the lack of a jumpshot. However, he has an elite first step and is able to drive either way off the dribble. He isn't a great ball handler, but with his quickness and athleticism, he's good enough to put it on the floor once or twice and finish at the rim. He also has good body control at the rim, but his strength hurts him in this area as well. He also has only average touch at the rim and misses some easy bunnies when he isn't able to throw down with a dunk. He shot 71% at the rim, but could have been even better given his physical profile

Defensively is where he will make his biggest impact, as he projects to be a major game changer on that end of the court. Nobody in college basketball averaged a higher combination of blocks and steals per 40 minutes than Noel did. He covered more ground than anyone in college basketball and he was able to do it both vertically and horizontally. He did an excellent job at blocking shots from a secondary level and did so with either hand. He has great instincts when it comes to blocking shots, displayin great timing and anticipation. Noel is blessed with the ability to come over and block a shot at the last minute and doesn't have to cheat to post high block numbers.

Most of his blocks come from helpside defense, as he struggles to hold his position in man to man post defense. He only weighed 206 pounds at the combine in Chicago, although he says he lost weight during the injury. He was above 220lbs while playing at Kentucky and has already added more weight since Chicago just a few weeks ago. By the time he is ready to play next year, I don't think he will have a problem getting up to 230lbs. He still will struggle to hold position inside, but he will at least not be working against the odds as one of the lightest big men ever.

While Noel has great anticipation when it comes to getting blocks and steals, his overall defensive mechanics and awareness need work. He is solid in this area, but relies too much on his athleticism right now.

Noel has a ton of upside, but there is also some injury concerns and risk that come along with picking him. Teams will need to rely on their doctors recommendations, but ACL injuries have been easier to come back from in recent years. At the same time, Noel has very skinny legs and looks like an injury waiting to happen every time he flies into the air or dives onto the floor.

Having the number one pick puts the Cavaliers in a tough spot this year. They could choose to take Noel, but will do so knowing that he could turn into a walking injury and be ridiculed for their selection for years to come. At the same time, there really isn't anyone in the draft that has the same game changing potential that Noel possesses. Passing on him for someone that turns out to simply be just a good starter could create backlash as well.

Given the Cavs roster however, I think they would be smart to consider Otto Porter. The Cavaliers already have a player in build around in Irving and while another star would be great, Porter is the kind of complimentary second or third option that will be guaranteed to help a team win. He also fills a position of need and will make an immediate contribution. Plus the Cavs have recently used a top 5 pick on a power forward who can't shoot and Noel doesn't compliment someone like that much. Noel is more of a power forward currently, himself.

The debate between Porter and Noel is an interesting one and should be looked at with more seriousness. Noel is not the consensus first overall pick in the same way guys like Anthony Davis or even Kyrie Irving was a few years ago. The Cavs can go in another direction at #1 and they seem to be at least considering Porter. They were in love with Porter and would have taken him at #3 if they didn't luck into winning the lottery.

The Case for Otto Porter

Otto Porter took the road less traveled to Georgetown, by choosing not to participate in AAU basketball during the summers. Instead, Porter played pickup games with his uncles and dad. He got tougher and learned how to play the game against grown men. Porter didn't spend his summer traveling and competing for a higher spot on recruiting rankings - he spent it honing his skills in his small town in Missouri.

He still got noticed by plenty of colleges and chose to play in the nation's capital for the Hoyas. He went to a school that emphasizes team play, passing, and versatility. It proved to be a perfect fit for his style. He's established a reputation as one of the safest draft picks in his class and an upper end role player. But is that all he can be? Most seem to cut off his potential at just being a good starter in the league - the next Tayshaun Prince has been a popular comparison.

Personally, I think Porter's potential is being overlooked. A lot of it has to do with his prep and college situations. He never played in a open system that has allowed him to showcase his skills. Thats what AAU or less structured offenses like Georgetown are for. Georgetown is famous for its slowed down tempo and team play - and has done a good job of hiding talented players in the past. Georgetown was a good fit for Porter in terms of style, but it did hide his potential.

The system at Georgetown did the same with Greg Monroe and even Roy Hibbert in the past. Coming out, they were viewed as solid pros that lacked aggressiveness and athleticism. It proved to be more of a system thing as both have greatly overachieved their draft stock since entering the NBA. Right now, Otto Porter is dealing with the same questions as they were coming out. With Monroe, scouts were able to come around to him having more potential than shown at Georgetown because they were able to look back into his AAU career. With Hibbert, they didn't have that same luxury because he was extremely raw coming out of high school. And for Porter, he didn't even play AAU.

Like Greg Monroe, Otto Porter also lost in the round of 64 in the NCAA tournament. Did that have any implications on Monroe's career? No, because Georgetown's offense isn't an offense that allows you to take over and dominate a game through scoring. Its why they consistently struggle in the NCAA tournament and it has nothing to do with the players - moreso the system.

If you go back and look at game film, there are very little holes in Porter's game - if any. And most will admit that he has a very good mid-range game, is an excellent passer, handles the ball well, and can finish at the rim.

The one major knock on his skillset is his ability to shoot 3-pters. But I already made a case why I dont believe that is legitimate previously:

A lot of people think Otto Porter's shooting is a fluke because only shot 22% from 3-pt range his freshman season. While that is reasonable, people are missing how great Porter was shooting mid-range jumpers his first season. Porter didn't play AAU and the 3-pt ball wasn't stressed to him as much as most kids. Instead, shooting mechanics were a priority and his are very consistent. According to hoop-math.com, Porter shot an outstanding 51% on 2-pt jumpers last season. This season he worked to extend his range back a few feet which resulted him him taking twice as many threes while making 42.2% of them. Porter will have to adjust even farther to the NBA line, but make no mistake that he can shoot the ball. His situation from year one to two is a lot like a young power hitter who didn't hit a lot of homers his first season, but had a lot of doubles. You know the power is there, it was just shown in a different way.

So even with all the questions answered about his skillset, there are still questions about his potential. No, he isn't an elite athlete but he has skills that elite athletes will never be able to obtain. He has a feel for the game that isn't common. And he has plenty of size and length to make up for his "average" athleticism.

I don't even think Porter is that bad of an athlete. He's not a one on one player who will over dribble and attempt to beat you with his quickness. But thats not always a good thing either. Porter beats you in ways you want your players to beat you. He thinks the game. He lets the game come to him and doesn't need the ball to be effective. At the same time, there is nothing in his skillset that says he can't take over a game. He did it at Georgetown against Syracuse through his passing, but he will have freedom to be a more aggressive scorer in the NBA.

Porter may not cross guys up and create his own shots from a traditional perspective, but he had no problem getting to spots and taking guys off the dribble in college. Porter can drive with either hand and understands angles extremely well. He is able to attack the defense through drives like a point guard - he doesn't necessarily get to the rim, but knows how to draw defenses and change speeds. He doesn't force anything with the ball in his hands. And he's a great passer who can drive and kick and make skip and lead passes. His unselfishness is one of his best traits and was magnified by Georgetown's Princeton offense.

But again, don't let that make you believe he can't be a good scorer. Don't make the same mistake scouts made with previous Georgetown players. I'm still looking for a reason why he won't be able to score in the NBA and can't find one.

He's certainly creative and crafty enough to score. Its no secret that Porter is crafty, but imagine him in an offense that allows him to show that. Porter can do many things with the ball, changes directions way too well for a man of his size, and really showed off this ability in transition. You want to see what Porter is capable of? Watch him at Georgetown in transition plays. He had a knack for getting fouled, finding a teammate on the run with a lead pass, crossing someone on the move, or making an acrobatic finish. His body control in these situations is amazing.

With his body control, Porter is able to be a good finisher. No, he isn't the next LeBron James or even Paul George when it comes to finishing at the rim. You won't see him throwing down many powerful dunks at the next level. But he has very good touch and finishes well with either hand. He is also very underrated when it comes to toughness and strength. He has a frame that could stand to add weight, but he is one of the toughest players in the draft. He loves playing inside and boxes out/crashes the offensive glass at all opportunities.

The best part of his offensive game is his mid-range game, something he showed quite often at Georgetown. He ate up the Syracuse zone twice by working the high post area. The mid-range game in college basketball is a dying breed, but Porter still managed to make it effective. Thats a testament to how good his mid-range game is. In the NBA, the mid-range game is so much more important and its scary to think what Porter could do with the much space to dissect a defense. His mid-range game is worlds ahead of most small forwards at this stage.

He is nearly impossible to cover in the mid-range area because he can beat you in multiple ways. The first is with his passing. He was the director of the offense at Georgetown and understands the game so well. He has outstanding vision in the high post, utilizes bounce passes, and can see over the defense. Finding a cutting teammate is always his first thought when getting the ball in the lane.

Porter also is a very polished jump shooter in the high post though. He has a turnaround jumper in the post, a faceup fadeaway jump shot, and a pullup jumper off the dribble. His release is quick and high. He gets his shoulders squared to the basket and gets good elevation through leg power. With his size, his shot is very hard to contest and he makes a very high percentage of these shots. Its why I trust that he can continue to shoot well from beyond the arc as well.

Porter is extremely versatile on the offensive end and understands mismatches for not only himself, but for his teammates as well. In the NBA game, his ability to see and take advantage of these mismatches will be even more valuable.

His ability to play without the ball in his hand will be valuable as well. He can play alongside a poor handling backcourt because he is such a good ball handler and passer for a 3, but he can also play next to ball dominant guys because he does a lot of his work off the ball. He will never be an isolation guy.

Porter works so hard off the ball, he usually gets to the foul line at least once a game simply because he was fouled without the ball in his hands. Whether a defender is trying to battled him in the post, keep him off the boards, or contain him on a screen Porter keeps his defender working. He knows how to come off screens, find soft spots in the defense (again, see Syracuse regular season games), cut to the rim, run the give and go, and get the ball off the rim.

Just because the most comparable player in terms of style may be Tayshaun Prince, it doesn't mean that is where Porter's upside ends. He is more advanced than Prince at this age and has a better frame. There really isnt a player better than Prince that you can compare to Porter in terms of style, but Porter has a clear advantage from a talent and upside perspective. If you compare Porter's sophomore year numbers to Prince in his senior year, Porter has the advantage (make sure you use pace adjusted numbers due to Georgetown's slow pace).

In my opinion, Porter will safely be a top 10 SF in the league. He won't surpass the top guys like LeBron, Melo, KD, Paul George, and say Andrew Wiggins but he will be right behind them. He doesn't have the ability to dominate like any of those guys, but he can help a team win more than any other small forward in the league other than that group.

Thats just him on offense. From a defense perspective, Otto Porter should be very good as well - if not better. The biggest knock on him as a defender is he lacks top notch lateral quickness to stay in front of quicker small forwards. But what he lacks in lateral quickness, he makes up for with his length and anticipation skills. I dont think we will have to worry about him being consistently beat off the dribble by many players, but for those ones that do - Porter does a great job funneling them into the teeth of the defense.

Defense these days is mainly about versatility and Porter should be able to switch on a lot of screens to cover bigger forwards and even some guards. He does a good job keeping his balance against quicker guys and recovering to contest shots. He communicates on defense, knows when it is appropriate to switch or gamble, and provides excellent help defense. He has a very high basketball IQ and it really shows on both ends of the court. Porter also rebounders very well. He boxes out and doesn't hesitate going into a crowd with stronger players.

Otto Porter has as much of a chance to be an all-star at the next level than anyone else in this draft and should be in consideration for the #1 pick. Cleveland was a big fan of Porter when they were projected to pick third in the draft, but things do change a bit at the #1 spot. Noel has to be considered heavily, but if they choose to be weary of his injuries, Porter should be the only other guy they consider. He is a perfect fit next to Kyrie Irving. If he slips past Cleveland, the Wizards will be in prime position to get him at #3 but could look to choose Anthony Bennett over him. If they do, that means Porter could slip to #5 or even farther which would make him a huge steal in this draft. 

The Barclay's Curse? Legend Classic Doesn't Live Up to Name

Do not be alarmed. The Legends Classic brought 4 good games of basketball to Barclays Center over the past two days. It was a great showcase of talent and solid field. Indiana ended up living up to their number one ranking while winning an exciting overtime thriller against Georgetown.

But LEGENDS?

This tournament brought us our first look at Shabazz Muhammad, a potential first overall selection. But he struggled along with the rest of the UCLA team.

It also featured Cody Zeller, another contender for the number one position. Indiana took home the trophy, but Zeller looked very human in the process. He struggled to create separation in the post and with his 6-10 wingspan, those shots will end up getting blocked in the NBA.

Neither player took a step towards the "legend" platform. These games only brought up more questions.

Both players had a chance to grab an early lead in the wide open race for the first overall pick. This year is the most open race since the 2006 draft when Andrea Bargnani went first and its looking like it could stay that way.

In recent years, the number one guys all started off with a hot start to drive up the hype train - Davis, Irving, Wall, and Griffin.

I've never looked at Zeller as a great option first overall and figured someone would step up early. So far, that hasnt happened.

There were some quotes from NBA executives after the Monday Night's slate of games at Barclay's that summed up this thinking.

Essentially, scouts think this will be a draft where the top teams would rather have multiple picks later on in the first instead of in the top 5. The choice at number one could depend on which team is picking - different from years past where there has been a consensus best player.

More players could enter the mold for number one. Nerlens Noel is certainly in the discussion, but failed to impress in his college debut, also at Barclay's.

It seems that Barclay's got its NBA team, but is in no hurry to push the next era of superstars to the next level. Perhaps the arena wants to try to delay their NBA dreams a few years, just like their dream of hosting a NBA franchise was delayed.

Call it the Barclay's Curse.

Disclaimer: I don't believe in curses. 

Cleveland Wins the Lottery

The city of Cleveland has needed some help. Even before the LeBron saga, Cleveland has had a long history of disappointments. Jordan over Ehlo. Byner's fumble. Modell moving the Browns to Baltimore. Things never seem to go Cleveland's way. Everything seemed to be sticking to script this year. The Cavaliers were the worst team in the NBA for the majority of the year, only to be "beaten out" by Minnesota at the end of the season. They were able to get two lottery tickets to the draft, acquiring the Clippers pick at the deadline, but all the college stars started heading back to school. A once promising lottery began to look like total crapshoot of role players.

But the ping pong balls bounced Cleveland's way. Or as David Kahn would say, David Stern picked the Cavaliers as this years story line. Rigged or not, this should be an exciting time for Cavalier fans. Their front office has both the #1 and #4 pick to work with. In no way does it make up for LeBron leaving, but there is now hope for the future.

Which players do the future hold in store for the Cavs? Lets take a look at the guys who will be making the decisions first...

Chris Grant (General Manager) - Grant spent nine years with the Atlanta Hawks, while serving as their assistant general manager from 2004-2010. Of course, that means he took part in the decision making process in 2005 when the Hawks took Marvin Williams over Chris Paul and Deron Williams. Could he do the same thing by taking another athletic combo forward (Derrick Williams) over Kyrie Irving?

Or what about two years later when the Hawks still needed a point guard. Grant and company once again chose perceived talent over need by taking Al Horford. The same guy who is often used as a comparison for Enes Kanter. Hmmm...

Ok, I'm just playing. I have little doubt the Cavs will take Irving with the first pick and absolutely no doubt that they will at least take a point guard in the top 5. Rumors have said all along that the Cavaliers WILL take a point guard with one of their lottery picks. Now that they could have either Knight or Irving, two guys they are very high on, it is a no-brainer.

Besides, assistant general manager David Griffin knows all about what a great point guard can do for a franchise after spending the last 17 seasons with the Suns. In March, I compared Steve Nash coming out of college to Brandon Knight' first college season. Maybe he is one of the members of the Cavs organization very high on Knight?

Then there is coach Byron Scott. Talk about understanding the importance of point guard play. He played with possibly the greatest ever in Magic Johnson and has coached Jason Kidd and Chris Paul! Chris Paul just so happens to be the player that Irving is most often compared to. So Scott would be one step ahead of the game knowing how to run the offense to best utilize Irving.

But will it be Irving picked first?

This is a unique situation in draft history. If the Cavs didn't have another pick in the lottery, this pick would be a slam dunk. There would be no thought needed for this pick. Take Irving and be happy with your franchise point guard until he leaves for South Beach.

But the Cavs also own the fourth pick. Should they read into this situation more and get a little creative in choosing their 1-2 combo? They could nab Derrick Williams first and still get a point guard they are very high on in Knight. It would fit the bill of what they are going for in Cleveland - hardworking, high character, young players.

If they elect to take Irving number one (which is definitely the likely scenario), they may be left to choose from a group of players they don't like as much as Knight.

Again, it comes down to their own evaluations. Personally, I would find it very hard to pass on the best player in the draft. Irving is the surest thing in this draft. The gap between him and Brandon Knight in my mind is greater than a few spots in rankings. Knight might not even be a starting point guard! It would be a very risky move on Cavs part, a move I'm not sure has ever been mirrored.

Assuming Irving is the pick, who do the Cavs look at with the number four pick?

Jonas Valanciunas - The Cavs could go with more of a project in Jonas. Down the road, he could form a deadly pick and roll combo with Irving. Irving runs the pick and roll well and Valanciunas makes a living off finishing rolls. His great hands and touch make him effective around the basket, at the free throw line, and rebounding the ball. And he has a terrific wingspan to play center and the body to put on weight.

The biggest problem is his contract. Teams are worried that he is going to stay overseas for a few more years. That might not be a terrible thing for Cleveland - they could guarantee themselves another lottery pick in a strong draft next year if he stays in Europe - but you don't want another Rubio situation. Cleveland would have to be realistic with this pick and do their research. Lets be honest, the city of Cleveland isn't an appealing destination and neither is their basketball team at this point. Buyer beware.

Enes Kanter - Kanter loses a few points since he hasn't been seen in a competitive environment in over a year. Cleveland doesn't strike me as a team willing to take a huge chance with this pick. That said, Kanter has apparently been looking impressive against the same chair the couldn't stop Yi Jianlian (credit goes to a Bill Simmons podcast for that line). His jumpshot looks very good, and as I said before, he has drawn comparisons to former Chris Grant draftee, Al Horford. Kanter has gotten into great shape as well, but he still doesn't have good explosiveness around the hoop - definitely not on Horford's level in that regard.

Jan Vesely - If they elect to go with a combo forward, it will be fun in the future to compare the careers of Irving/Vesely vs Knight/Williams. Vesely is a terrific athlete, a player who would definitely excel next to a great point guard. Unlike the players listed above, Vesely has both played competitive basketball recently and should have no problem leaving Europe for the NBA. He throws down ferocious dunks in transition like Blake Griffin and has the ability to impact the game defensively like Andrei Kirilenko. His offensive game is a work in progress, but it is definitely progressing. Vesely is a very solid option at #4 that should not be ignored.

Other names will get mention as well. There is Alec Burks, who is currently projected by Ryan Feldman of TheHoopsReport to go #4. If the Cavs shy away from a Euro, he could come into discussion. It is worth noting that neither the Hawks or Suns housed many Euros on their teams during Grant and David Griffin's respective tenures.

Another name that got mentioned was Kawhi Leonard by Alex Kennedy of HoopsWorld. Apparently the Cavs were high on him as well, but that was before they found out they would be picking #1 and #4. Leonard is a stretch that high and that idea has already been shot down by respected draft experts.

Marcus Morris has the experience, work ethic, and production that could cause the Cavaliers to check him out. The fourth pick just seems a little too high for him.

Bismack Biyombo also warrants a mention. I think the Cavs will ultimately end up falling for a guy with more potential than the defensive-minded Biyombo, especially when they already have Varejao. Whether it be Valanciunas or Kanter, one will likely catch their attention more than the Congo native.

I dont think it will take long for the unofficial word to come out that the Cavs will take Kyrie Irving. It already seems like a done deal if you look at the mock drafts. What is not a done deal, though, is what will be done with the fourth pick overall. That pick holds a lot of weight in the Cavs future. Knowing the luck of Cleveland, there is plenty of bust potential there.