The Correlation Between 2-pt% and Assist to Turnover Ratio

As I have broken down numerous college point guards this year, the same strengths and weaknesses keep coming up. One of the big things is how a guy runs the pick and roll offense. You have two ends of the spectrum here - guys who change speeds and play under control and guys who go full speed and rely on their athleticism. All of the guys are able to score in the mid-range area and pass the ball to open teammates. There isn't a guy difference there. The biggest difference comes from being able to put yourself in situations to get good shots, to get teammates open, and make smart decisions. The pick and roll game exemplifies the point guard's ability because it puts him in a situation where he can shoot, pass, drive, and also work an in-between game. You literally have countless options out of the pick and roll and its up to the offense player to be able to take advantage of them.

The problem with some guys is they don't know how to play in these sets. When they have an on ball screen, they feel the need to quickly accelerate around the corner and try to force their way into the lane. Trying to get around defenders with pure speed puts them in bad situations where they are often out of control and are forced to throw up an off-balanced shot or unpremeditated pass. I study the games of point guards who shot the ball exceptionally well from 3-pt range and had great athleticism inside, yet found that they had terrible efficiency inside the arc. Why? It all comes down to changing speeds.

If you watch Phil Pressey of Missouri and compare him to an average college point guard, you can really see a difference. Pressey understands the conceptions I am talking about. He uses hesitations, changes in direction, changes in speed, and other moves to keep the defense honest. When he gets a screen, he can dance around it, teasing the defense with his 3-pt ability while still being in attack mode. He doesn't feel the need to force things. Pressey can slip in between the two pick and roll defenders or he can slowly attack the defense while remaining under control. When Pressey gets inside the arc, it doesn't mean a shot or a pass is coming within seconds. That is because he enters the lane under complete control and with numerous options in mind. Instead of barreling into the lane and have to make quick decisions, Pressey is able to toy with the defense while sizing them up. Being able to take his time, he can make much more efficient passes to his teammates, while also getting them more open since he holds onto the ball longer. He also is able to get much more efficient shots himself since he isn't going in at full speed. Some guys have the size that they could keep bad habits and just run into the lane and fire up floaters, but Pressey has learned from an early age that he must work to find good shots.

What am I getting at?

Well first, the pick and roll is obviously incredibly important and becomes an even bigger factor in the NBA. In the NBA, you absolutely have to know how to change speeds because every player is an excellent athlete. The guys in college who rely on athleticism are going to have big adjustments to make.

So the pick and roll is valuable and what makes you a good pick and roll player is the ability to change speeds. At least, it plays a big factor. And the pick and roll effects all parts of your game. It effects your passing and efficiency.

Look at the two top assists to turnover players from last year - Kendall Marshall and Scott Machado. It is no surprise that they were great passers and smart decision makers, but did you know they were also amongst the top players in 2-pt%?

Using DraftExpress's stat page, I took a look at the 16 point guards who made their top 100 draft prospect list from this past draft. Of those 16 guys, Machado, Marshall, and Dion Waiters were in the top 4 in both 2-pt% and assist to turnover ratio. Now Waiters is a great finisher so his 2-pt% is no surprise, but Machado and Marshall have always been regarded as average finishers at best.

It all comes down to the pick and roll game and changing speeds for them. Both of them play very under control and rarely have to put of forced shots. When they go into the lane, they have multiple options inside their head. It goes along with the idea of being a triple threat and a lot of guys don't present that ability off the dribble in the lane. So Marshall and Machado both are efficient inside scorers despite not being very explosive or even particularly good shooters.

It is no surprise they are also the two best passers. It is all about leaving their options open. 2-pt% and assists to turnover ratio go hand in hand for point guards.

There are a lot of variable that explains why the numbers don't always back this up, things like how Tyshawn Taylor is such a good 2-pt shooter while having a bad assist to turnover ratio. This can be explained by the athleticism and size thing. Even without great understanding of changing speeds, some ultra talented guys like Taylor can get by in the college game with elite size and athleticism. The opposite can be used to explain why my example, Phil Pressey, is only an average 2-pt shooter. He really isn't a very good finisher in traffic at all, but if he didn't understand how to get good looks and keep the defense on their heels, his 2-pt% would be at the bottom of the league.

Scouting Report: Phil Pressey

Height: 6'0''
Wingspan: 6'3''
Weight: 178lbs
Bday: 2/17/91
Team: Missouri
Class of 2014

A young Pressey rocking a different looking. Truly defining how to "get low"

Coming into his sophomore season at Missouri, Pressey had full control of the point guard position and his game in almost every statistical category. His shooting from all areas of the floor improved, his assists and rebounds went up, he cut down the turnovers and fouls, and nearly doubled his attempts at the free throw line. Most importantly, Pressey was the leader for one of the best teams in a country and a team that was known for unselfishness and excellent chemistry. Pressey had great teammates around him, but he embodied all positive characteristics and did a great job making plays for the other three guards on the court.

Let's ignore Pressey's size at first and examine his college game. Right now, he may be the most talented returning college basketball player and he's still only going to be a junior. It is high praise, but very much earned. Pressey played entire games last year where he was virtually perfect. He defended the entire court, made terrific passes, hit his jumpers, and controlled the tempo. Lots of times it seemed like he could do whatever he wanted out there.

His unselfish play and understanding of the pick and roll offense are two things that bode well for him when projecting his NBA future. Pressey always looks pass first. He can dominate a game without taking a shot and will if you let him. He takes advantage of Mizzou's uptempo offense for assists, but also know how to operate in the halfcourt. In the pick and roll offense, he is deadly. He is so small that he is able to split defenders and he changes speeds perfectly. He can move around into the lane at half speed, just because of the threat of his blow-by potential. He has a good feel for where defenders are playing him and uses his small frame as well as he can when he has a defender on his back after driving off a pick. When he is doing his damage in the lane, he is almost always under control. The only issue with Pressey in the pick and roll is his own ability to finish.

Pressey displaying a NBA "arm bar"

Pressey shot just under 43% from the floor last year, which was actually up from his freshman number of  38.7%. While Pressey has a smooth stroke in the mid-range area, his 2-pt percentage is hurt by his play amongst bigs. Pressey takes a lot of difficult shots inside thanks to his shortcomings in the height department. Instead of using a classic floater, Pressey ends up in tough spots where he is 10 feet away from the hoop and trying to push the ball to the rim with a defender on his inside. He is a crafty guy and a great athlete, but he isn't very explosive. Not in a Nate Robinson kind of way where you are going to see him dunking. He's more along the lines of a DJ Augustin type athlete. He's going to have to bulk up quite a bit so he can deal with contact and develop a more reliable floater. I know the floater should be no problem for a guy with his touch, he just needs to do a better job of positioning himself inside.

In transition, Pressey normally has no problem finishing. When he gets rolling to the basket, he is way too quick for defenders to be able to set their feet and draw a charge or block his shot without fouling. Most of his free throw attempts come off these situations. Pressey's passing is also a big factor here as he is one of the best at delivering good passes to his teammates on the run. Pressey is great in transition and has had plenty of practice in these situations at Missouri.

Shooting wise, I think he is better than the numbers say he was. He has deep range and is able to pull up from anywhere on the court. He can shoot off the dribble and create enough space to shoot the ball. He reminds me a bit of Isaiah Thomas from Washington with the way he can size up his defenders from the top of the key or shoot off the pick and roll. Pressey was shooting 28% from 3-pt range last year on February 15th, but finished the season on a 22-40 hot streak where he displayed complete confidence in his shot.

Another thing to note is Pressey's crossover which is absolutely ridiculous. Its a video game crossover that can take him 5 feet in any direction in a heartbeat. Overall, he does a great job changing directions and he completely dices up defenses. As I said before, Pressey looks unstoppable a lot of times in the college game. In terms of everything he can control, not much more can be asked of him.

Before we touch on his defense, we have to acknowledge his size now. Pressey was measured at 6 ft tall in shoes with just a 6'3'' wingspan at the 2012 Deron Williams Skills Camp. The year before, he was under 6 feet with just a 6'1 wingspan. The numbers can vary a bit. Either way he is really undersized, but a 6'1 wingspan is particularly troublesome. Trey Burke is around the same height as Pressey, but Burke has a better frame and a few extra inches on his wingspan. That is the reason why Burke is considered a better prospect.

Nobody can say Pressey doesn't lay it all on the line. There are countless hustle pics off Pressey on Google Images

In terms of lateral quickness, Pressey has it and he's very agile to boot. Defensively, he really turned it up at the end of the year and played good defense against the likes of Pierre Jackson, Myck Kabongo, and Tyshawn Taylor. He has great closing speed, defends out to halfcourt, and does a good job closing passing lanes and getting steals. Pressey isn't a gambler perse, but can bait the opposition into throwing passes. He does a great job chasing his man around screens and getting interceptions there. He can be bullied and shot over, but Pressey has plenty of heart and pride on defense. Too much to be a complete non-factor.

I doubted Isaiah Thomas last year who had similar measurables last year and he has since proven me wrong. I'm still not sure how good of a player Thomas really is as he put up those numbers of the Kings and I didn't get a chance to watch him much, but he definitely is an NBA player. And I can say with certainty that Pressey as a sophomore was a better played than Thomas was as a senior in college. Pressey has always been a natural point guard while Thomas was much more of a scoring guard until the second half of his senior year.

One thing Thomas did well that Pressey can mimic is the pick and roll game. Thomas had the deep jumper to keep defenses honest as well and similarly used screens to get into the lane. They both show a lot of heart, character, and love for the game. You can never count out players with the kind of work ethics they possess. One area where Thomas has the advantage is his build, where he is a bit stronger. Thomas was a better finisher at the rim because of that and slightly better explosiveness. Still, Thomas never ran the point like Pressey can.

Pressey is the kind of player a general manager or coach can fall in love with. A guy who can make a coach feel that despite his size, he can be their point guard and allow the coach to have complete faith in his decision making. He will have detractors that say he isn't worth even a late first round pick, but there will be a at least a few that will look for him in the first round. I'll admit, I could probably be swooned over by Pressey in interviews and group scrimmages. He's been said to be the best point guard at all the camps he's played in, but still doesn't get as much attention due to his size. With a potential player of the year campaign on the horizon, the topic of his size will continue to be the biggest component that needs to be figured out in his transition to the NBA. He has everything else working for him.