Which Shooting Guard Will Rise to the Top of The Pack?

There are quite a few upperclassmen shooting guards in this years draft class, mostly juniors, who could look to declare for the draft. The deciding factor may be whether they get a first round guarantee or not and as of now - it seems they all have some hope to cling onto. There is room for at least another shooting guard prospect to rise up the board and into the mid to late first round area. Right now, Jamaal Franklin appears to be the favorite but these 5 other players could all very likely declare for the draft and challenge for supremacy.

(Numbers in parenthesis are where each player is ranked on DraftExpress.com and Chad Ford's Big Board)

JR Tim Hardaway Jr (DX: 62, CF: 59)

What He Does Best?

Among the group, Hardaway Jr is the best at putting the ball on the floor and making plays in the paint. He is best with the ball in his hands and the freedom to create. Hardaway Jr is very creative getting his shots off inside the arc, can hang in the air, and has nice touch at the rim. His crossover is not as good as his dad's, but is another strength of his game, and he is able to get shots off after creating space with the move. Playing for one of the best teams in the country won't hurt his stock.

What He Needs to Improve?

Hardaway Jr is one of the more ball dominant players of this group and makes his biggest impact with the ball in his hands. He goes one on one too often, dribbles the ball way too much, and has been an inconsistent spot up shooter. And for all his dribbling, an average of only 4 free throws per 40 minutes and the lowest assist percentage in this group, doesn't look good. Up until this year, he looked like a streaky spot up shooter at best, but he is shooting over 40% from 3 this year. His 73% FT shooting suggest that this may be a fluke and there is little doubt that he is one of the worst spot up shooters in this group. Hardaway Jr also needs to make a bigger impact off the ball and on the defensive end.

JR Allen Crabbe (DX:48, CF:38)

What He Does Best?

Crabbe does an excellent job moving without the ball, seemingly gliding to his spots and working hard throughout the entire game. He has a knack for getting open even though Cal's offense revolves around him and Justin Cobbs as much as any offense revolves around two players. Crabbe does most of his work before he gets the ball in his hands and doesn't just move around screens to set up outside shots - he is equally as good finding seams in the painted area for easy floaters. Because of this, Crabbe has improved his 2-pt% this year and is one of the most efficient scorers of this group despite a "down year" shooting the ball. In the past two years, he has shot just at 40% from deep and over 80% at the line. He's proven himself as a consistent and pure shooter throughout his 3 years in Berkeley.

What He Needs To Improve?

As mentioned, Crabbe does much of his work before he gets the ball so he doesn't flash the same kind of ability to create shots that a guy like Tim Hardaway Jr does. But that isn't necessarily a bad thing since he moves so well without the ball and the NBA needs more guys like that. Crabbe also isn't very explosive getting to the rim and struggles to get all the way to the cup - although he shoots 76% at the rim - better than any other wing in this study. Crabbe is a solid defender and rebounds well, but doesn't project as anything special on defense.

JR CJ Wilcox (DX: 49, CF: 41)

What He Does Best?

Wilcox has been a shooter from the moment he stepped on campus and is the only guy in this group who has shot over 40% from 3 in each of his years in college. Wilcox started off as a spot up shooter - playing off the likes of Terrence Ross, Tony Wroten, and Isaiah Thomas - so he is very use to the role that will be asked of him in the NBA. He also has great length for a wing (with a 6-8 wingspan) and is the best shotblocker among these 6 prospects.  Through hardwork, Wilcox has transformed his game into more than just a shooter and is now able to function as the focal point of the Huskies offense - taking 29.5% of their shots while on the floor.

What He Needs to Improve?

Only Reggie Bullock gets to the line less among this group. While he has stepped up his overall offensive game, Wilcox still projects as just a jump shooter at the next level. He gets to the rim less than any other player looked at, although his length allows him to finish well in limited opportunities. And in terms of operating off the basketball, he is nowhere near the level that Allen Crabbe is at. Wilcox usually coasts around screens with zero urgency to get open and has been held to under 15 points in each of his last 5 games. Currently his team  has lost 6 of their last 7 and he has failed to step up and stop the skid. A large part of this may be attributed to a stress fracture he suffered in early January. but it doesn't look like Wilcox will have another chance this year to show what he can do when completely healthy.

JR Jamaal Franklin (DX: 23, CF: 19)

What He Does Best?

The simple answer is rebounding. Franklin is by far the best rebounder of the group and has grown his craft by acting as San Diego State's power forward much of the time on defense. Franklin as a football background and it is evident in his toughness, competitiveness, and instincts. He is an explosive leaper and is the best shotblocker listed besides CJ Wilcox. Franklin treats defense as very important and takes on the challenge of covering the oppositions best player. On the offense end, Franklin is aggressive and thrives in transition. He is a explosive finisher and a good playmaker for his teammates. He does the best job at drawing fouls out of this group - showing an array of old man moves to get his defender off balance. Franklin's work ethic and coachability has often been praised by the coaching staff.

What He Needs to Improve?

Franklin is the least efficient player in this overview and the most turnover prove. He is an outlier in terms of shooting - as he shoots just 26% from behind the arc this season. Franklin's offense is more predicated around heart, assertiveness, and athleticism than any particular skills. He has a good crossover to get by defenders, but his overall handle is sloppy and out of control in the paint. His shooting is incredibly streaky. Franklin is a good passer, but has a poor A/TO ratio because he tries to do too much on the offensive side of things. He also has some character red flags in the past and needs to continue to keep his aggression channeled towards basketball.

JR Reggie Bullock (DX: 50, CF: 43)

What He Does Best?

Bullock has improved immensely as a shooter to become the most efficient scorer and highest percentage shooter amongst the group. He is shooting over 43% from the arc and nearly 90% from the free throw line. Bullock is the ultimate role player and gets his team extra possessions through his work on the offensive glass and diving for loose balls. He is the best offensive rebounder of the group by a fair margin. Bullock also is very intense of the defense end and has the potential to be a very good defender in the NBA with the ability to cover both wing positions. His assist to turnover ratio is double of any other player compared here.

What He Needs to Improve?

Part of the reason why Bullock has such a good assist to turnover ratio is he doesn't attempt to make many plays off the bounce. His scoring efforts come off offensive rebounds, transition opportunities, and jumpers. That is what makes him an ultimate glue guy, but at the same time very much limits him. This year, North Carolina has needed a guy to handle to scoring load and Bullock has been unable to deliver anything different than in prior years. He is what he is as an offensive player. Bullock's possession % ranks him last among the 6 player field. His free throw rate also puts him at the bottom of the list.

SO Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (DX: 38, CF: 36)

What He Does Best?

At only 20 years old, Caldwell-Pope is easily the youngest player that we are going to look at. His team has struggled mightily during his stay, although they've been starting to play better as the young guys mature. Caldwell-Pope is actually one of the more experienced guys on the team and has had a lot of pressure as basically their only scoring option. He is a dead-eye shooter who is always ready to get his shot off and has athleticism to go along with it. Caldwell-Pope has a good first step and can pull up off a couple of dribbles going in either direction. He is very good with this type of mid-range jumper and is a good finisher at the rim. In fact, his 2-pt% is the highest amongst all 6 players we looked at. It is fairly safe to say that Kentavious is the most talented offensive player in this group. On the defensive end, Caldwell-Pope generally shows a lot of energy in defending and going after rebounds.

What He Needs to Improve?

For Caldwell-Pope, a lot of it is between the ears. He makes a lot of "freshman mistakes" still and puts up contested jumpers early in the shot clock. On his current team, you can live with that though. More concerning is his defense. Not his effort, but his understanding of positions and help defense. Caldwell-Pope is the guy who face guards you in middle school and annoys you to know end. He can shut you out of the game, but be completely oblivious to what is going on around him. Because of his style, he is prone to losing his man on cuts to the rim and he gets ran through a lot of screens. He has trouble understanding the relation between the ball and his man - something that comes naturally to most players - but for him you can tell it is something that he is constantly trying to figure out where he should be.

Offensively, he has a poor handle and struggles to make moves with a defender nearby. He relies purely on his quick first step. He isn't able to attack pick and roll - resulting in many teams blitzing him. He gets himself stuck in double teams and isn't a very good passer. He is able to get to the rim on straight line drives due to his explosiveness, but lacks any creativity to his game. He also needs to learn how to play off the ball to take advantage of his gifts.

SR Michael Snaer (DX: 53, CF: 100)

What He Does Best?

Snaer came out of high school as an All-American and has now spent four years learning defense from Leonard Hamilton. Needless to say, Snaer is a great defender who has the physical attributes along with the proper schooling to be ready to contribute ready away at the next level. He is a leader on the floor and understands the game at an advanced level. Along with the defensive expectations, Snaer has also had a lot of responsibility on the offense end of the table, especially with Ian Miller battling injuries all season long. Still, Snaer is shooting nearly 40% from 3 and over 80% from the line - something he has done each of the past two season. Snaer also racks up more assists than anyone not named Jamaal Franklin as he is often asked to be the primary playmaker as well as scorer for his team. Snaer has been able to show an all-around offensive game. He's shown the shooting, playmaking, ball handling, and leadership that make him arguably the most well rounded player we've looked at. On top of that, Snaer may be the most clutch performer in college basketball with 3 buzzer beaters this season alone to his credit.

What He Needs to Improve?

Snaer's team is in a down year with quite a few key players leaving and his numbers have dipped quite a bit as well. He trails only Jamaal Franklin when it comes to TS% while also turning it over as much as any other player besides Franklin. The difference between him and Franklin's FG% is Snaer actually can shoot from deep - where he is struggling, oddly enough, is from the mid-range area. According to hoop-math.com, he has connected on just 22% of all 2-pt jumpers. Another thing to look at though, is just 8% of the jumpers have been assisted which speaks to how much he is expected to have the ball in his hands and make plays for himself. His 2-pt % on jumper is the worst it has been in his career. Leonard Hamilton is an expert on defense, but his offense has always lagged behind and you can chalk up many of Snaer's inefficiencies to lack of offensive structure. His high turnovers also are a result on him having to do entirely too much. Snaer isn't a guy you'd generally associate as an inefficient player - he is very smooth, smart, and makes good decision with the ball - but he's been asked to do way too much this year and point guard is not his natural position.

Conclusion:

If you were to ask me who'd I'd pick first out of this group, it would be either Michael Snaer or Allen Crabbe. Right now, it seems that Jamaal Franklin is currently the favorite to be selected in that mid-first round area all these players are vying for, but I don't see much upside to his game. Snaer is a better defender, shooter, ball handler, and has a better background with no character issues. Franklin is limited by his decision making, shooting, and ball handling on offense and while his athletic highlights give the notion that he has a high upside, it is tough to overcome his shortcomings.

In looking for a shooter, Crabbe presents the most intriguing combination of saavy without the ball to go along with his ability to shoot. He isn't the defender than Reggie Bullock is, but has much more potential as a scorer.

Tim Hardaway Jr does have some upside and it is hard to count him out, but Im not sure how his style will translate to wins. His shooting still seems like somewhat of a fluke and his defense doesn't effect games. He is a guy who needs the ball in his hands and while he can put up points in the NBA, will he contribute to winning?

As for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and CJ Wilcox, Caldwell-Pope still has a long way to go in terms of learning the game. As of now, his natural feel for the game isn't very promising when looking at his future. Returning to Georgia for another season will be his best bet unless he gets a first round promise. CJ Wilcox on the otherhand, is what he is at this point and doesn't present much intrigue. He can make it in the NBA as a shooter, but there are plenty of guys out there like him that all need to find the right opportunity to succeed.

My Rankings:

1. Allen Crabbe
2. Michael Snaer
3. Reggie Bullock
4. Jamaal Franklin
5. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
6. CJ Wilcox

Out of the Mix:

Early in the season, it looked like Sean Kilpatrick had a horse in this race but he's fallen off as the season goes on. His power dribbling style doesn't translate well to the NBA and his shot hasn't been as automatic as it appeared before. He's a junior with athletic limitations.

Saturday's Weekend Wrap-Up

Cincinnati vs St. John's

Sean Kilpatrick got off to a hot start this year along with the rest of the Bearcat team. However, as we head into a tougher part of the schedule, both him and the team are looking much more average. The Bearcats have been a team that takes advantage of their athleticism and defense by pressuring teams into tough shots. Now, they have been the team getting bullied on the inside.

Kilpatrick only scored 7 points against St. John's - probably the most athletic team he's faced to date. In his last three games (against New Mexico, St. John's, and Pittsburgh), his best shooting performance was his 3-8 game against Pittsburgh. I've watched each of those games and it seems his stock is deteriorating before our eyes. His 3-pt shooting is now down to 33% and that is supposed to be his calling card at the next level. His driving game isn't working either - he has to try to muscle the way to the hoop and has struggled finishing vs size. The write-up I wrote on Kilpatrick in November is looking on point. I thought I might have been a bit too tough on him after his strong December.

Rutgers vs Pittsburgh

Rutgers' pulled off the upset early on Saturday morning which was the start of 3 ranked Big East teams losing. I've been vocal about how much I like this Panther team, but getting outrebounded 31-21 just isn't their style. Talib Zanna only had 1 rebound and now there is a bit of reservation if he has actually made the jump to one of the better big men in the Big East. He has been fools gold before. He thrives in transition opportunities which won't be as rampant in conference play, but his rebounding is a bit of a mystery. I still really like his awareness on defense. He does a great job covering for Steven Adams' mistakes.

Speaking of Adams, he only had 4 rebounds in 28 minutes. This was a better game for him then the box score indicates though. He continues to make visible progress each game which makes his potential almost something tangible. He has been running the court and moving on offense with purpose. It is amazing just how fluid he is at his height. He does a great job moving from point A to point B on offense and finally looks like he knows where he is going. He's been able to catch the ball on the run and finish all in one smooth motion. He completely shut out every pick and roll attempt Rutgers tried. He is a little slow getting back to his man, which is where Zanna's ability to move comes in handy.

The one area where Adams really needs to improve in the immediate feature is his rebounding. Not his ability to rebound the ball, but his ability to hang onto it after he gets it. He is weak coming down with the ball and gets it taken away from him too many times. Adams needs to develop a mean streak. If he shows this, I'd consider drafting him in the top 5-8.

Lamar Patterson is a talented jack-of-all trade performer who I've liked dating back to high school. but it is time for him to expand himself as a player. He is a capable driver and creator and Pittsburgh desperately needs another aggressor on the perimeter. He needs to step up.

Baylor vs Texas

This game was a bit of a surprise with Texas forcing overtime as Scott Drew serving a suspension, but the Bears ended up winning 86-79.

Cory Jefferson came up huge with 25 points and 10 rebounds. His combination of size, athleticism, and energy is the perfect recipe for an early second round draft pick. He is only listed at 210lbs, but looks much bigger and certainly plays stronger than that. He got most of his points around the rim by using a combination of his aforementioned athleticism and relentlessness. He's a team player and also a very good defender. He's gone against 3 strong frontcourts in his last three games - all games that I watched - against Gonzaga, Texas, and BYU. In those 3 games, he has grabbed a total of 33 rebounds.

Those three games have also been an opportunity to see how Isaiah Austin fairs against strong frontlines and he's done as well as one could ask - tallying 52 points and 30 rebounds over that stretch. Austin gets a lot of flack for his softness, but to his credit, he doesn't shy away from contact. It just isn't his game, therefore, it isn't smart for him to try to battle down low. And it probably never will be given his physical profile. You have to accept Austin for what he is - a skilled power forward with elite coordination and nice ball skills. I think everyone agrees on the basic scouting report for Austin, but what that amounts to in the NBA is up for debate. Stretch forwards can be a dime a dozen, but just how high is Austin's potential? There haven't been many 7+ footers with his ball skills since Dirk, so there is some intrigued. Then again, finding a guy anywhere near Dirk is like hitting the lottery. NBA teams tried time and time again to hit the lottery in the 2000s with European 7 footers, each time failing.

Pierre Jackson had a somewhat erratic game, making some errant passes and playing too fast at times. But he did get to the line 15 times thanks to his combination of elite quickness and good ball handling ability. He has a tight crossover that is able to break down defenses. Jackson needs to learn to slow his game down and become more of a constant nuisance on defense, but he has himself in discussions as a second rounder.

For Texas, there has been a lot of positive things to say about them until Javan Felix's performance yesterday. The Longhorns offense has been a mess a season, lacking spacing or any kind of rhythm. Texas has always been at their best with players off all shapes and sizes who can shoot and stretch their defense. It has appeared the Rick Barnes is still trying to run the same sets with this personnel, yet without the shooters. Finally yesterday, Felix took control of the offense through the pick and roll game. He finished with 26 points and 9 assists while only handing the ball over to the defense once. The performance was as impressive as it sounds - he ran the pick and roll with poise and was able to get lots of good looks in the mid-range area. Baylor didn't defend it well, something that might have had to do with Drew being out, but Felix deserves the credit for this one.

Murray State vs SE Missouri State

Ed Daniel - Daniel's endurance was on full display, bringing his energy for 37 minutes in a game that was close post of the way. Daniel is the same kind of player as Ben Wallace or Kenneth Faried - two other small school products who come from the southeast. He's not as good, but he has a good shot at making a NBA team.

At this level, he does a great job at running down the court to establish deep low post position in the paint. He isn't a bully with his size, but does possess great quickness and determination. His post game is basic, relying on a running right handed hook shot and and vanilla arsenal of ball fakes. He hit a foul line jumper in this game. His jumpshot is more of a touch shot though - and he has good touch, but his range doesn't look promising - 10 feet and in. With Isaiah Canaan, his main role on offense is more as a screener and rebounder than a go-to threat.

Defensively, Daniel moves like a small forward and has a tremendous IQ. He brings non-stop energy and is willing to lay his body on the line at all times. He plays great help defense and puts great pride in keeping his man out of the paint (although he can get pushed around at times). Daniel has a chiseled frame that has obviously seen the weight room, much like Faried's in college, but could focus on adding more girth. He has a Faried level body and athleticism. He isn't quite the rebounder, but 11 boards in 29 minutes is not too shabby.

Daniel has improved on his numbers drastically this year and he credits it to the confidence he gained in the all-star camps he attended with Canaan over the summer. He only grabbed 5.5 boards in 24 minutes just last year. This kind of improvement on the glass is something that is unprecedented.

Isaiah Canaan was battling with an injury in this game, but got hot in the second half to bring Murray State into the lead. After a quiet first half, he ended up finishing with 28 points. Canaan doesn't need to be fully healthy to score - all he needs is enough room to get his jump shot off. And thats not a lot of room. Canaan has grown used to the opposition switching on the pick and roll and leaving him to shoot over a big man. The opposition knows Canaan prefers to shoot than drive, so the switching makes sense, but Canaan has adjusted. Next to Deshaun Thomas, he is probably the best shooter in the country when it comes to off-balanced, contested jumpers.

Lehigh vs VCU

For the second time, CJ McCollum let down scouts that flocked to see him play. The first time was when he sat out against North Texas, this time McCollom broke his foot in the first half and is now potentially out the entire regular season.

In the 15 minutes McCollom did play, he was 0-5 from the field. VCU gave him a heavy dose of the havoc defense each time he touched the ball and essentially took him out of the game even before he got hurt. Lehigh still tried to keep getting him the ball, but he was unable to find the open men under the duress of the defense. Once McCollom was forced to the bench, Lehigh actually was able to develop some rhythm since they didn't continue to look for CJ in double teams. They ended up giving VCU a game, eventually losing 59-55. 

A Brief Overview of the Most Pure Shooting Wings A Playoff Team can Snag

Teams are always in need of shooters. For playoff teams, they can be the last piece of the puzzle. The draft is one way they can find these players. By the time these playoff teams are on the clock, sweet shooters like CJ McCollom and Ben McLemore will be long gone. But there are other guys that are worth a look from the end of the first round and on down. Here is a brief look at some notable guys:

The best shooting wing a playoff team can grab is Reggie Bullock. He's a great defender and has deep range. He does all the little things for UNC. Even with the Heels struggling and him being able to step up as a creator, Bullock still possesses great role playing qualities. He won't ever be a creator or great off the dribble, but he is a smart offensive player and passes the ball well.

If you want a more dynamic guy who can shoot, go for Brandon Paul. He's an athletic combo guard who has stepped up big time so far in his senior season. He likes to shoot 3s, but is capable for getting to the rim as well. He can play some point guard and has shown good leadership abilities, but is more of a scorer off the bench type. His effort on defense is solid.

Caldwell-Pope is another option if he chooses to come out. Like Bullock, he has ideal size and a sweet stroke and plays with energy on defense. Unlike Bullock, he takes a lot of bad shots and makes quite a few mental errors. He is really good shooting off the bounce though moving either way - he isnt creative, but has a nice first step that is enough to get good separation for his jumper. He also can explode to the rim at times, although that is mainly just to keep defenses honest.

Of the three, I like Bullock the best.

It might be better to wait for the second round to grab a shooting wing, depending on who declares. Crabbe, Kilpatrick, Wilcox, Deshaun Thomas and McDermott all are shooters and happen to be juniors.

Kilpatrick is the oldest of the group and also the most likely to declare. He may be the least of the pure shooters, but also possesses the ability to get to the basket thanks to his strength. He's only an average athlete, but plays tough. He might be the best of the group - certainly the most well-rounded.

Wilcox is built like Reggie Bullock. Tall, somewhat lanky, spot up shooter. He projects as a pure spot up shooter in the NBA. His defense has the potential to be solid enough for him to stick.

Crabbe is an interesting player who does his best work moving without the ball. He's more explosive and quick than he looks based off his smallish stature. He doesn't just settle for 3-pt shots. He finds a lot of ways to score including out in transition, off mid-range curls, and cuts to the basket. His defense at the next level is suspect.

McDermott is the old ball of the group - I wanted to exclude stretch PFs from the list. In college McDermott is neither a stretch forward or a small forward, he actually spends most of his time in the post. And he is very good at getting position, drawing fouls, and finishing through contact. His energy on the court goes unmatched. I'm projecting him as a small forward though because he would get bullied down low in the NBA. He can provide great shooting while also being a threat to put it on the floor and use his craftiness. Defense will always be tough for him, but you cant fault his energy. A big part of defense for wings has to do with chasing players around the court and going through screens so McDermott will at least be able to prove how active he is on D.

DeShaun is a big time scorer who can shoot the ball from anywhere on the court and in any situation. When he is hot, he is on fire. He is completely unrattled by a defender's hand directly in his face. Thomas  can be a blackhole at times, but has gotten better at passing the ball this season. He also is able to take defenders in the post and score from there. Defensively, Thomas is a big time tweener who projects to be a poor defender at the next level. The energy or physical gifts just aren't there.

Sean Kilpatrick's Draft Stock

Sean Kilpatrick has emerged from a off the bench scoring threat his freshman year to the best player on Cincinnati's top 25 team this season, this being his junior campaign. Turning 23 in January, Kilpatrick's time is running up and should at least test the draft waters this year. His upside is limited, but as a mature shooter, Kilpatrick could be the type of guy who can be drafted in the second round and contribute right away.

Kilpatrick's calling card is his ability to shoot. Last year he took 56% of his shots from deep. He has a quick release which allows him to get shots up with little space and always has his shoulders square to the hoop. He shows good balance and is able to pump fake to keep defenders honest and pull up in the mid-range area as well, where he is also very good.

While Kilpatrick is a shooter, I wouldn't classify him amongst the elite shooters in college basketball. He's more of a streaky shooter who will have some nights where he front rims everything. His free throw shooting testifies to this, as he is a career 71% shooter.

Kilpatrick does have a more rounded offense game than other shooters in this draft like CJ Wilcox, Caldwell-Pope, and Reggie Bullock. He's shooting slightly less threes this year and has made his offensive impact felt in other ways. Last night against Campbell, he only had 4 first half points but I was encouraged to see him still involved and creating for his teammates.

Kilpatrick has only a solid first step, not much of a left hand, and no real advanced ball moves but when he hits the lane, he shows good balance and keeps his head up to find teammates. He showed the ability to find teammates near the rim and also drive and kick last night. He also cut off the ball and used his solid frame to get looks inside.

Kilpatrick has trouble finishing though, as he is right hand dominant, and lacks great length and explosiveness. He has the body to absorb contact and it also is a reason he can drive the lane despite average skills, but he is still an average finisher at best.

I liked what I saw from Kilpatrick's overall offensive game last night, but it doesn't change much for him. He is still turning 23. He still is a streaky shooter. And he still isn't a very good ball handler or finisher. His confidence and ability to play under control will allow him to maximize his average gifts this season, but it doesn't make his ceiling for the NBA very high. Still, it is good to see a shooter that is not completely one dimensional.