2013 Small Forwards Prospects By the Numbers

A week ago, we took a loot at the point guard prospects by the numbers. Now we will see how the small forward prospects grade out based off the numbers provided by hoop-data.com. I excluded Otto Porter from this study as I view him as the best small forward prospect by a considerable margin.

*For Glen Rice Jr, I used his data from his previous year at Georgia Tech.

% of Shots at the Rim

Carrick Felix - 43%

James Ennis - 35%

Solomon Hill - 27%

Robert Covington - 25%

Shabazz Muhammad - 24%

Glen Rice Jr - 21%

Deshaun Thomas - 20%

Adonis Thomas - 18%

FG% at the Rim

Glen Rice Jr - 76%

Deshaun Thomas - 74%

James Ennis - 72%

Carrick Felix - 71%

Shabazz Muhammad - 65%

Robert Covington - 64%

Solomon Hill - 63%

Adonis Thomas - 62%

% Assisted at the Rim

Adonis Thomas - 58%

Shabazz Muhammad - 58%

Carrick Felix - 56%

Deshaun Thomas - 48%

Robert Covington - 44%

James Ennis - 41%

Glen Rice Jr - 34%

Solomon Hill - 14%

% Shots 2-pt Jumpers

Adonis Thomas - 59%

Shabazz Muhammad - 53%

Deshaun Thomas - 45%

Robert Covington - 40%

Glen Rice Jr - 37%

Solomon Hill - 31%

James Ennis - 24%

Carrick Felix - 19%

FG% 2pt Jumpers

Solomon Hill - 40%

Glen Rice Jr - 40%

Adonis Thomas - 39%

Deshaun Thomas - 39%

Shabazz Muhammad - 37%

Carrick Felix - 34%

James Ennis - 31%

Robert Covington - 25%

% 2-pt Jumpers Assisted

Adonis Thomas - 54%
Shabazz Muhammad - 47%
Deshaun Thomas - 43%
Robert Covington - 41%
Carrick Felix - 32%
Solomon Hill - 23%
Glen Rice Jr - 17%

James Ennis - 14%

% of 3-pt Shots

Solomon Hill - 42%
Glen Rice Jr - 42%
James Ennis - 41%
Robert Covington - 38%
Carrick Felix - 37%
Deshaun Thomas - 35%
Adonis Thomas - 24%
Shabazz Muhammad - 23%

3-pt FG%

Solomon Hill - 39%
Carrick Felix - 38%
Robert Covington - 38%
Shabazz Muhammad - 38%
Deshaun Thomas - 35%
Glen Rice Jr - 34%
James Ennis - 33%
Adonis Thomas - 29%

% of 3-pt Shots Assisted

Shabazz Muhammad - 100%
Carrick Felix - 96%
Deshaun Thomas - 96%
Adonis Thomas - 92%
Robert Covington - 87%
Solomon Hill - 82%
James Ennis - 68%
Glen Rice Jr - 68%

Observations

James Ennis - James Ennis stands out in this group as a finisher which comes to no surprise. He's the best athlete among the 8 prospects and his team pushed the ball with every chance they could get. You can tell that his team lacked any kind of halfcourt structure on offense which forced Ennis to create more than he should have to. Even though Ennis isn't a good ball handler, he was forced to create a large amount of his jumpshots. He does have a quick step back jumper move, but that isnt his game. Playing in a halfcourt setting in the NBA will be a big adjustment for him. He doesn't have a mid-range game and relies on circus shots in the lane. He will have to improve his jumper. He hit 3s at a good rate but his release has to get quicker.

Carrick Felix - Felix is the most similar to Ennis and both of their strengths are more on the defensive end. Felix played in a much more structured offense however, which complimented his strengths well. He didn't have to create at all and while he also lacks a middle game, he wasn't put in a situation where he had to score off the dribble. Like Ennis, he is a real solid finisher at the rim. He has also turned himself into a good spot up 3-pt shooter. I view Ennis as a better prospect than Felix because of his athletic edge and added playmaking ability.

Solomon Hill - Hill is one of the worst finishers at the rim in the group, but makes up for it with his polished mid-range game. He has the best floor game of the group and has the most versatile offensive attack. He doesn't have to get all the way to the rim to score. He also tested out as the best shooter in the group by leading in both 2-pt% and 3-pt% while taking a higher volume of 3s than anyone. He's a good spot up shooter but also can get his shot off the dribble.

Glen Rice Jr - The more you look at Glen Rice Jr, the more you see how much the situation at Georgia Tech prevented him from showing his true potential. Rice Jr had to create almost all his shots at Georgia Tech as he was near the bottom in assisted shots in all 3 categories. He was also the best finisher at the rim and in the mid-range area, despite not having the advantage of getting any easy baskets. The one area Rice Jr doesn't show well here is 3-pt shooting, but he might actually be the best shooter out of the 8. He proved this year in the D-League that he has no problem with the NBA 3-pt line.

Shabazz Muhammad - There is a big concern with Shabazz's ability to get to the rim based off these numbers. He was in the bottom half in terms of % of shots at the rim while receiving more assisted plays at the rim than anyone. Considering Shabazz also scored a lot of offensive rebounds, the numbers prove the Muhammad was unable to put the ball on the floor and get all the way to the rim at UCLA. He also seemed incapable of creating room for his jump shots. All of his 3-pt makes were assisted and he trailed only Adonis Thomas in most 2-pt jumpers assisted. His mid-range game, however, does show promise.

Deshaun Thomas - Thomas didn't really standout in any one category. We know he can shoot the ball, but he didn't shoot it at an exceptional clip. And there is a big concern with his ability to get shots off at the next level. A lot of his shots were assisted and he doesn't really have any reliable moves to get his shot up. As a small forward at the next level, he will struggle to shoot over longer defenders due to his lack of quickness and height. He did convert well at the rim in limited attempts, but that isnt his game.

Adonis Thomas - Thomas' numbers at the rim couldn't be any more. Despite shooting less at the rim than anyone and having the highest percentage of his shots assisted, Thomas still was last in converting at the rim. Thats a red flag and very puzzling for someone with his size and athleticism. These numbers scream lack of aggression. He did fair well in the mid-range area, which passes the eye test when watching him as well. Thomas will also need to improve his range as he shot worse from 3 this year than anyone.

Robert Covington - For a guy his size and playing against the competition he did, Covington really didn't show as well at the rim as you'd like to see. More concerning was his FG% on 2-pt jumpers since he projects to be a jump shooter at the next level. He ranked last in that area by a fair margin. Tennessee State needed a guy who could create shots this season and he proved that he struggled in that area. Still, Covington brings a nice combination of athleticism and outside shooting that could eventually get him into the NBA.

After watching more film on each of these prospects and taking a look at them by the numbers, here are my personal revised rankings:

1. Glen Rice Jr (late lottery to mid-first round)
2. Shabazz Muhammad (mid-first round)
3. Solomon Hill (early second round)
4. Adonis Thomas (early second round)
5. James Ennis (second round)
6. Deshaun Thomas (second round)
7. Carrick Felix (second round to undrafted)
8. Robert Covington (second round to undrafted)

Others worth noting: James Southerland, Rodney Williams, Will Clyburn

Thursday's Sweet 16 Preview

March Madness continues tomorrow with 4 more games to decide who will advance to the Elite 8.

Marquette vs Miami (FL)

Top Prospects: Shane Larkin (59), Kenny Kadji (89), Durand Scott (90), Vander Blue (121)

Marquette remains standing after coming out on top in two of the most exciting games of the tournament - vs Butler and Davidson. Vander Blue has been beyond clutch in each of the games and has drawn a deeper focus from NBA scouts. He's basically living off the tournament hype though, and considering he's shooting below 50% and has 6 turnovers to only 2 assists in this two game stretch, this "breakout performance" isn't even that impressive. Yes he has been clutch and Blue is a guy who can make even the toughest of baskets, but he has a lot of other issues to overcome. He struggles to find and create easy shots and his efficiency has suffered. He's also not a very good shooter, only showing signs of improvement this year. And an undersized scoring two guard who can't shoot tends to have an uphill battle to climb.

Blue will continue to try to climb up that hill against Miami and will likely draw the defensive attention of Durand Scott in this one. Scott is another undersized two guard who makes some impressive plays and hits tough shots, but struggles to be efficient and make simple plays. He has proven to be an intense defender this season though, and should provide Blue some trouble with his physical tools. Those tools make Scott the more intriguing prospect as he projects better as a defender and a finisher at the rim.

Arizona vs Ohio State

Top Prospects: Shannon Scott (49), Deshaun Thomas (55), LaQuinton Ross (69), Kaleb Tarczewski (70), Brandon Ashley (74), Solomon Hill (79), Aaron Craft (85), Nick Johnson (120)

This game features a lot of young prospects who could eventually find themselves in the first round, but are currently ranked rather low in rankings because the are viewed to be at least a year away. Two of the more NBA ready prospects in this game will be Deshaun Thomas and Solomon Hill, who could end up battling head to head for much of the game.

Arizona has been playing their best basketball as of late in large part because of a shift towards a smaller lineup. Solomon Hill has been playing a lot more PF - a position he played a lot last year when he averaged almost 8 rebounds per game and shot over 50% from the field. It will be interesting to see if he will look to attack Thomas in isolation situations. Hill has a very solid all-around game and has improved an area of his game each year. This year he's been a much better slasher than in years past. Thomas is more of a one dimensional player, but is great at the one thing he does - shoot. And he shoots often and in any situation. He's played tougher this season and it will be interesting to see who has the edge when it comes to rebounding and banging inside.

LaQuinton Ross had a big game against Iowa State, but he's still got a lot to learn. His defense stops him from getting more minutes and he takes too many uncalled for jumpers. But he's certainly one to watch and may have more potential than anyone in this game.

Syracuse vs Indiana

Top Prospects: Victor Oladipo (5), Cody Zeller, (7), Michael Carter-Williams (26), CJ Fair (43), James Southerland (117), Christian Watford (124), Will Sheehey (126)

Cody Zeller will face tons of length and bodies against the zone inside which is the exact kind of situations he's struggled with this season. Zeller tends to try to go right at shotblockers - which is what you are coached to do - but he just doesn't have the strength yet to finish with the contact. Zeller could excel in another spot against the zone though and that is at the foul line. We saw what Otto Porter and Gorgui Dieng could do in this spot and Zeller is another guy with a high IQ who can hit the jumper and pass from this spot. Zeller may be more aggressive than either of them when it comes to putting the ball on the floor and he could create open looks that way too. Zeller is a very good passer off the dribble, almost like a guard.

Watching Oladipo against the zone will be interesting too. He'll be asked to operate more in the halfcourt offense and his athleticism will be taken away from him against the zone. Oladipo will need to show the ability to get himself in the right spots to score and the skillset to be able to breakdown the zone. This game will be more of a chess match than he is used to, but he's a smart player. This game gives him a chance to showcase that.

CJ Fair has had a solid tournament for Syracuse and continues to be their most consistent offensive player. His perimeter game has developed a lot this year and he's extended his range to beyond the 3-pt line. Fair has always been able to shoot though and his small sample size from deep shouldn't be a reason to dismiss his shooting ability. Another big development in his game has been his off the dribble game. Thanks to a nice floater, his mid-range game has always been solid, but now he is willing to do more than simply just take one dribble and shoot a floater. He's getting more comfortable dribbling the ball and the next step for him is to be able to make plays for others. He'll have a big opportunity as "the guy" next year if he does come back to take yet another step in his development. He's an intriguing prospect who looks like an early second rounder at the moment.

LaSalle vs Wichita State

Top Prospects: None

No top prospects in this one, but Ill take the Shockers to advance to the Elite Eight.

Recap from Last Night and 12/19/12 Game Preview

In the early games yesterday, there were two top 10 teams squaring off against mid-major programs. It appeared Kansas had the tougher task, facing a good Richmond squad but they blew them out with no problem. It was Winthrop though, that gave Ohio State trouble - and it was a close game up until the final 5 minutes.

Deshaun Thomas was streaky and at one point missed 9 shots in a row. Midway through the second half he got hot and as soon as his long jumper went in, I knew Ohio State was going to start to get a little cushion. Thomas hit 4 jumpers in a row and also a fifth bucket on a tough move inside. The good thing - or bad thing - about Thomas is he never loses confidence in his jumper. After his 9 straight misses, his first make was on a quick contested shot from a step inside the arc - his favorite spot on the floor. His shot selection would make even good players in the country inefficient which is what makes his 48% shooting on the season so impressive.

Aaron Craft and Shannon Scott can make a great pair, especially on defense where they may be the best defending backcourt in the country. On offense. neither of them turn the ball over but neither provides much outside shooting. It is interesting to see that Scott is the main playmaker when they are both in. Craft has not taken the necessary step forward this year in that development.

Ohio State has a lot of depth on the perimeter and no seniors. With Shannon Scott and LaQuinton Ross playing well, it makes me wonder if they can go another season of coming off the bench. Even with Thomas starting at PF, the Buckeyes have a crowded backcourt with Lenzelle Smith, Aaron Craft, and Sam Thompson starting.

Of their 4 highly touted sophomores - Ross, Amir Williams, Thompson, and Scott - none get over 24 minutes a game. It doesn't seem right that they will have to continue to see limited playing time in their junior years if Craft and Thomas stay.

Anyway, this Ohio State team has looked overrated despite all their talent this season. They've come out flat on multiple occasions and have a big test Saturday against Kansas. The Jayhawks have been polar opposites of the Buckeyes - blowing out opponents and thriving off great defense. Ohio State is going to have to defend the 3-pt line better than they did tonight. I think Kansas has the edge even without homecourt in the game, but Ohio State may be able to pull off the win if they win the matchup at point guard. Aaron Craft should be able to give Elijah Johnson a hard time.

In a developing story - this Miami Hurricanes team is pretty good. They are definitely a top 4 ACC team this year and could be as high as #2. They haven't lost since the early season matchup against Florida Golf Coast which was without Durand Scott. Since then, they seem to get better every game as Larkin and Scott learn to play together.

They are tied for the team lead in scoring, but since Durand Scott has been back, he's been their go-to guy. And he should be. He's been great this year at picking his spots and not forcing things. He is a beast physically at getting to the hoop and is a creative finisher. I also have been very impressed with his defense in the early goings. The biggest development may be his 3-pt shot - Scott had pretty much abandoned it the past year for good reason, but is slowing bringing it back. He is 4-6 in his last two games and hit two really tough baskets from behind the arc tonight against Central Florida. The rotation on his shot looks good and he has always been a solid free throw shooter so maybe there is some reason to believe in his range.

Inside Miami has been led by Reggie Johnson, who "slimmed" down a bit over the summer. He may not look any smaller, but he is certainly in better condition. He is able to play extended minutes with high activity. His effort has been great this year and he's been a factor on both sides of the ball. He even is showing touch from outside. What makes Johnson great is how light he is on his feet. But his effort has also been impressive - last night for example, Miami was up nearly 20 with under 2 minutes left yet he was still running the court and diving for loose balls.

Arizona had no problem getting past Oral Roberts and it was good seeing Angelo Chol getting some run in the blowout. Chol looked like a promising player last season, but with three heralded freshman bigs coming in this year, there is just no room for him on the court. And it really sucks for him - he plays really hard and by all accounts is a hard worker. He is active on the glass, moves well, and has nice touch from 15 feet out. Unfortunately, Chol won't be able to play regularly for at least another year, perhaps more.

I flipped back between to night cappers, watching both James Ennis take on UCLA and Allen Crabbe play UC Santa Barbara. UCLA looked good early on, finally showing intensity on defense. They covered the perimeter really well and denied passing lanes. Their intensity faded though and when it did, UCLA's lack of a frontline was exposed by Dan Jennings. Jennings had a career game on his way to 27 points. James Ennis also played well. He showed a flawed jumper yet hit 3-6 from deep. He also was able to drive the lane and show off his explosiveness at the rim. He is able to hang in the air and finish with contact well.

For UCLA, Shabazz Muhammad did a good job defensively. This is a notable improvement. Offensively, he missed 3 dunks but finished with 21 points. He scored in a variety of ways - off steals, in transition, with his leaner in the lane, off offensive rebounds, and from behind the arc. He leaves a lot to be desired from a skill standpoint but manages to get it done.

In the other late game of note, Allen Crabbe finished with 12 points on another poor shooting performance (4-12 from the field). He's not as dynamic as other top scorers in the country but is outstanding moving without the ball. He is a great shooter, but does not settle for the jumpshot. He does a nice job finding soft spots in the defense in the paint for easy jumpers as well as curling around screens. He also does a good job getting out in transition. He does a nice job gathering himself and handling contact in the paint, but his lack of explosion and creativity hurt him.

Games to Watch Today:

Detroit at Alcorn State 3pm (Ray McCallum)
Xavier vs Cincinnati 7pm ESPN2 (Semaj Christon and Sean Kilpatrick)
Illinois State at Dayton 7pm (Jackie Carmichael)
South Dakota State at Belmont 8pm (Nate Wolters)
North Carolina at Texas 9pm ESPN2 (Reggie Bullock, James Michael McAdoo, plus others)
Northern Iowa at UNLV 10pm (Anthony Bennett, Khem Birch)

Hall of Fame Tip-Off Classic

The Hall of Fame Tip-Off Classic was a small event in Connecticut that didn't come with a lot of fanfare. It featured some solid teams though in Rhode Island, Washington, and Seton Hall and allowed us to get our first look at a top 5 program - the Ohio State Buckeyes. The Buckeyes won the event without much of a scare, beating Washington 77-66 in the championship.

Some notes:

- Deshaun Thomas was the story in the championship, scoring 15 points on 7-8 shooting in the first 9 minutes of the game. Thomas scored in every way imaginable - off the pick and pop, in the post, off putbacks, and spotting up in the corner. His offensive acumen looks much like a stretch forward and his position on defense is undefined. Thomas has played tougher this season, battling inside and digging in more defensively. Still, he's a big time tweener who is a black hole on offense. Thomas takes shots that nobody else should take - plenty of long contested 2-pt shots - yet he is never phased by a hand in his face. It makes him an interesting prospect to debate. He is somewhat of last year's Carmelo Anthony to the college game, although his impact at the NBA will be nowhere near the Cuse star. I think Thomas is a late first to early second rounder at this point.

- I profiled Aaron Craft over the summer and I must say, he's shown more offensively than I expected. Craft was getting to the basket with consistency against Washington and finishing with either hand. Craft has always been one of the hardest working players so this shouldnt come as a surprise, but it does boost his stock some. He still needs to work on shooting off the dribble and creating more plays for teammates.

- Shannon Scott was impressive despite scoring just 4 points while racking up 4 fouls. For one, he should have had 6 points but was unable to shoot his FTs late in the game due to a hard fall. Scott looked like he would be ready to next game, though. Shannon Scott ran the point position even with Craft in, and looks to be the better playmaker. He had no trouble getting into the lane and made showed nice vision in setting his teammates up. He only had 1 assists, but had at least two "hockey assists" that Craft ended up getting credit for (Craft finished with 4 assists). Scott also looked good in man to man defense and showed nice end to end speed off steals. He got lost a few times on defense though, and needs to become more vocal next year when he takes over for Craft. Scott will need to play another year to gain experience starting, but he has potential to be a first round pick.

- In both games I watched they mentioned Ohio State observers claiming Sam Thompson is in the Evan Turner mold so I know I heard them right. I like Thompson, arguing for him starting over Ross before the season started, but thats some high praise. I get it somewhat - Thompson has the potential to be a super role player with rebounds, defense, and assists. Still, Turner was much more of a creative and better ball handler. One thing Thompson has that Turner didn't was excellent explosiveness. Thompson needs to work on getting to the rim and gathering himself so he can show the world his crazy hops.

- Washington's Abdul Gaddy is finally starting to look more like the All-American he was billed as. Rob Dauster wrote about him last night after his good game against Seton Hall and he continued his inspired play tonight. Gaddy scored 15 points on 4-6 scoring. It was an impressive performance against Craft's superb defense and Gaddy showed a lot of saavy off the dribble to make it happen. If he keeps it up, he could have a fighting chance at getting drafted. Washington guards have built a good reputation as of late.

- Aziz N'Diaye is hard to move off the block and is a legit seven feet. I've kept tabs on him the last few years and have witnessed marginal improvement. At 24 though, Im afraid the best it will get him is an invitation to Portmouth. N'Diaye runs the court well, rebounds, and maintains position well but still has no post game and below average understanding of defense. Not to mention, he can't put the ball in the basket.

- CJ Wilcox was Washington's high point man, but didn't make himself a huge presence in the game. He is what he is - an excellent shooter with a good frame. That could be enough to get him in the late first round to early second range. He had a nice find for an assist in the game and looked good coming off screens. He's actually scoring less per minute so far then he did with playing with Ross and Wroten last year. He's a guy who does well playing with good playmakers, but isn't going to be a playmaker himself. There are room for guys like that in the NBA.