Showing posts with label small forward. Show all posts
Showing posts with label small forward. Show all posts

Tuesday, May 28, 2013

The Case for Otto Porter

Otto Porter took the road less traveled to Georgetown, by choosing not to participate in AAU basketball during the summers. Instead, Porter played pickup games with his uncles and dad. He got tougher and learned how to play the game against grown men. Porter didn't spend his summer traveling and competing for a higher spot on recruiting rankings - he spent it honing his skills in his small town in Missouri.

He still got noticed by plenty of colleges and chose to play in the nation's capital for the Hoyas. He went to a school that emphasizes team play, passing, and versatility. It proved to be a perfect fit for his style. He's established a reputation as one of the safest draft picks in his class and an upper end role player. But is that all he can be? Most seem to cut off his potential at just being a good starter in the league - the next Tayshaun Prince has been a popular comparison.

Personally, I think Porter's potential is being overlooked. A lot of it has to do with his prep and college situations. He never played in a open system that has allowed him to showcase his skills. Thats what AAU or less structured offenses like Georgetown are for. Georgetown is famous for its slowed down tempo and team play - and has done a good job of hiding talented players in the past. Georgetown was a good fit for Porter in terms of style, but it did hide his potential.

The system at Georgetown did the same with Greg Monroe and even Roy Hibbert in the past. Coming out, they were viewed as solid pros that lacked aggressiveness and athleticism. It proved to be more of a system thing as both have greatly overachieved their draft stock since entering the NBA. Right now, Otto Porter is dealing with the same questions as they were coming out. With Monroe, scouts were able to come around to him having more potential than shown at Georgetown because they were able to look back into his AAU career. With Hibbert, they didn't have that same luxury because he was extremely raw coming out of high school. And for Porter, he didn't even play AAU.

Like Greg Monroe, Otto Porter also lost in the round of 64 in the NCAA tournament. Did that have any implications on Monroe's career? No, because Georgetown's offense isn't an offense that allows you to take over and dominate a game through scoring. Its why they consistently struggle in the NCAA tournament and it has nothing to do with the players - moreso the system.

If you go back and look at game film, there are very little holes in Porter's game - if any. And most will admit that he has a very good mid-range game, is an excellent passer, handles the ball well, and can finish at the rim.

The one major knock on his skillset is his ability to shoot 3-pters. But I already made a case why I dont believe that is legitimate previously:

A lot of people think Otto Porter's shooting is a fluke because only shot 22% from 3-pt range his freshman season. While that is reasonable, people are missing how great Porter was shooting mid-range jumpers his first season. Porter didn't play AAU and the 3-pt ball wasn't stressed to him as much as most kids. Instead, shooting mechanics were a priority and his are very consistent. According to hoop-math.com, Porter shot an outstanding 51% on 2-pt jumpers last season. This season he worked to extend his range back a few feet which resulted him him taking twice as many threes while making 42.2% of them. Porter will have to adjust even farther to the NBA line, but make no mistake that he can shoot the ball. His situation from year one to two is a lot like a young power hitter who didn't hit a lot of homers his first season, but had a lot of doubles. You know the power is there, it was just shown in a different way.
So even with all the questions answered about his skillset, there are still questions about his potential. No, he isn't an elite athlete but he has skills that elite athletes will never be able to obtain. He has a feel for the game that isn't common. And he has plenty of size and length to make up for his "average" athleticism.

I don't even think Porter is that bad of an athlete. He's not a one on one player who will over dribble and attempt to beat you with his quickness. But thats not always a good thing either. Porter beats you in ways you want your players to beat you. He thinks the game. He lets the game come to him and doesn't need the ball to be effective. At the same time, there is nothing in his skillset that says he can't take over a game. He did it at Georgetown against Syracuse through his passing, but he will have freedom to be a more aggressive scorer in the NBA.

Porter may not cross guys up and create his own shots from a traditional perspective, but he had no problem getting to spots and taking guys off the dribble in college. Porter can drive with either hand and understands angles extremely well. He is able to attack the defense through drives like a point guard - he doesn't necessarily get to the rim, but knows how to draw defenses and change speeds. He doesn't force anything with the ball in his hands. And he's a great passer who can drive and kick and make skip and lead passes. His unselfishness is one of his best traits and was magnified by Georgetown's Princeton offense.

But again, don't let that make you believe he can't be a good scorer. Don't make the same mistake scouts made with previous Georgetown players. I'm still looking for a reason why he won't be able to score in the NBA and can't find one.

He's certainly creative and crafty enough to score. Its no secret that Porter is crafty, but imagine him in an offense that allows him to show that. Porter can do many things with the ball, changes directions way too well for a man of his size, and really showed off this ability in transition. You want to see what Porter is capable of? Watch him at Georgetown in transition plays. He had a knack for getting fouled, finding a teammate on the run with a lead pass, crossing someone on the move, or making an acrobatic finish. His body control in these situations is amazing.

With his body control, Porter is able to be a good finisher. No, he isn't the next LeBron James or even Paul George when it comes to finishing at the rim. You won't see him throwing down many powerful dunks at the next level. But he has very good touch and finishes well with either hand. He is also very underrated when it comes to toughness and strength. He has a frame that could stand to add weight, but he is one of the toughest players in the draft. He loves playing inside and boxes out/crashes the offensive glass at all opportunities.

The best part of his offensive game is his mid-range game, something he showed quite often at Georgetown. He ate up the Syracuse zone twice by working the high post area. The mid-range game in college basketball is a dying breed, but Porter still managed to make it effective. Thats a testament to how good his mid-range game is. In the NBA, the mid-range game is so much more important and its scary to think what Porter could do with the much space to dissect a defense. His mid-range game is worlds ahead of most small forwards at this stage.

He is nearly impossible to cover in the mid-range area because he can beat you in multiple ways. The first is with his passing. He was the director of the offense at Georgetown and understands the game so well. He has outstanding vision in the high post, utilizes bounce passes, and can see over the defense. Finding a cutting teammate is always his first thought when getting the ball in the lane.

Porter also is a very polished jump shooter in the high post though. He has a turnaround jumper in the post, a faceup fadeaway jump shot, and a pullup jumper off the dribble. His release is quick and high. He gets his shoulders squared to the basket and gets good elevation through leg power. With his size, his shot is very hard to contest and he makes a very high percentage of these shots. Its why I trust that he can continue to shoot well from beyond the arc as well.

Porter is extremely versatile on the offensive end and understands mismatches for not only himself, but for his teammates as well. In the NBA game, his ability to see and take advantage of these mismatches will be even more valuable.

His ability to play without the ball in his hand will be valuable as well. He can play alongside a poor handling backcourt because he is such a good ball handler and passer for a 3, but he can also play next to ball dominant guys because he does a lot of his work off the ball. He will never be an isolation guy.

Porter works so hard off the ball, he usually gets to the foul line at least once a game simply because he was fouled without the ball in his hands. Whether a defender is trying to battled him in the post, keep him off the boards, or contain him on a screen Porter keeps his defender working. He knows how to come off screens, find soft spots in the defense (again, see Syracuse regular season games), cut to the rim, run the give and go, and get the ball off the rim.

Just because the most comparable player in terms of style may be Tayshaun Prince, it doesn't mean that is where Porter's upside ends. He is more advanced than Prince at this age and has a better frame. There really isnt a player better than Prince that you can compare to Porter in terms of style, but Porter has a clear advantage from a talent and upside perspective. If you compare Porter's sophomore year numbers to Prince in his senior year, Porter has the advantage (make sure you use pace adjusted numbers due to Georgetown's slow pace).

In my opinion, Porter will safely be a top 10 SF in the league. He won't surpass the top guys like LeBron, Melo, KD, Paul George, and say Andrew Wiggins but he will be right behind them. He doesn't have the ability to dominate like any of those guys, but he can help a team win more than any other small forward in the league other than that group.

Thats just him on offense. From a defense perspective, Otto Porter should be very good as well - if not better. The biggest knock on him as a defender is he lacks top notch lateral quickness to stay in front of quicker small forwards. But what he lacks in lateral quickness, he makes up for with his length and anticipation skills. I dont think we will have to worry about him being consistently beat off the dribble by many players, but for those ones that do - Porter does a great job funneling them into the teeth of the defense.

Defense these days is mainly about versatility and Porter should be able to switch on a lot of screens to cover bigger forwards and even some guards. He does a good job keeping his balance against quicker guys and recovering to contest shots. He communicates on defense, knows when it is appropriate to switch or gamble, and provides excellent help defense. He has a very high basketball IQ and it really shows on both ends of the court. Porter also rebounders very well. He boxes out and doesn't hesitate going into a crowd with stronger players.

Otto Porter has as much of a chance to be an all-star at the next level than anyone else in this draft and should be in consideration for the #1 pick. Cleveland was a big fan of Porter when they were projected to pick third in the draft, but things do change a bit at the #1 spot. Noel has to be considered heavily, but if they choose to be weary of his injuries, Porter should be the only other guy they consider. He is a perfect fit next to Kyrie Irving. If he slips past Cleveland, the Wizards will be in prime position to get him at #3 but could look to choose Anthony Bennett over him. If they do, that means Porter could slip to #5 or even farther which would make him a huge steal in this draft. 

Tuesday, September 4, 2012

Dez Wells Taking His Talents to College Park

Earlier this morning, Dezmine Well's tour of America ended with the announcement that he the University of Maryland will be his next stop. Wells is a great get for the Terps and should be a valuable player as soon as he becomes eligible. According to sources, it is unlikely Wells will be granted eligibility this year so his impact won't be seen until the 2013-14 season. With Wells joining the Terps, they now only have one scholarship remaining for next year's recruiting class - the class that features the Harrison twins.

Don't be mistaken though, I am confident that Turgeon signed Wells with a plan already in place where he can still get the twins. I can't see Turgeon throwing away his hand when he was in line for getting possibly the best package deal in the history of college basketball. Turgeon can work his way around this problem by releasing another player from scholarship - Seth Allen or Sam Cassell Jr would be my guess. The Harrison twins are set to announce in late October so we should find out what happens sooner rather than later. Either way, with Wells on board plus the other moves Maryland has made, the Terps are officially on the road back to a legitimate contender.

EDIT: Maryland should still have two available scholarships available next year. I didn't realize Connor Lipinski was taking up a scholarship this season. Testudo Times posted a helpful chart.

Dezmine Wells will be a big part of that. As a freshman at Xavier, Wells had to share the ball with two ball dominant players in Mark Lyons and Tu Holloway so he didn't get a chance to consistently show what he can do. He did learn how to play without the ball and contribute in other ways to his team. While Wells dismissal from Xavier seems like it could be a big red flag on his character, numerous recruiting analysts who know Wells have spoken on how great of a kid he is. He showed great class handling his move from Xavier. And watching him play, his unselfishness and effort on the court speaks to the type of basketball player he is. Dez Wells with be nothing but a positive influence on his teammates.

Now that we have that out of the way, lets focus on his game. Wells made his biggest impact defensively last year. Standing at 6'5'', Wells has the height of a shooting guard, but with his build, long arms, and outstanding athleticism he fits in great as a small forward. His long arms constantly flashing in the defenders face makes it difficult for players to drive and when they do, they do so without much success. Wells is light on his feet and moves well laterally, while his length is able to keep the small guards who do manage to get on his hip pocket cautious. He does a great job of contesting all shots and closing in on shooters. For a player of his caliber athletically, it is somewhat surprising that he only managed one combined block and steal per game. That is about the only negative thing I can say about his defense, he could stand to make a few more plays. Overall, Wells has great intensity and showed that he can be a lockdown defender in his freshman year - a rare treat.

Offensively, Wells managed to shoot over 50% from the field his freshman season. Thanks to his athleticism and strength, Wells is very explosive around the rim and can fly in from 10 feet out. He looks to dunk on people. He does a lot of damage in transition. In the halfcourt, Wells is an unselfish passer but when he looks to score, he is aggressive going to the rim. He has a great first step and long subsequent strides. He struggles to get all the way to the rim as his ball handling makes him pretty much a straight line driver and he can be shaky under ball pressure, but his athleticism makes it so he doesn't have to get all the way to the cup on the bounce. He doesn't show any fancy dribbling moves and rarely creates his own jumpshot off the bounce, choosing to try to get to the rim once he puts it on the floor, but his first step doesn't require him to get too fancy. He can blow by defenders.

At times, he can be even too quick for himself and lose the ball. He is able to get to the foul line area whenever he wants so a good floater would be a nice addition to his game. Right now, Wells has a tendency to get inside the paint and pick up his dribble once he is swarmed. He doesn't panic once he picks up the ball, showing solid passing skills, but being able to go all the way to the rim regularly is something he needs to work on. He only got to the line 2.4 times a game last year despite the fact that the majority of his shots came inside the 3-pt line.

As a jump shooter, Wells has shown well in small volume. He shot 38% from behind the line, showing a smooth but slightly slow release. He only took 1.7 3s a game as he much prefers to play aggressive. His jumper needs some work, but it isn't a negative. His free throw shooting was a bit disappointing, as he shot 67.5% from the line.

Off the ball, Wells has the perfect build to make cuts inside towards the basket. He demonstrated this ability on multiple occasions through the season and should continue to take advantage of his good awareness level and understanding of moving without the basketball.

Overall, Wells was in line for a breakout year at Xavier with Holloway and Lyons gone, but instead will likely have to sit out a year before suiting up at Maryland. I expect the next time you will see him Wells will play with even more hunger. He should be a much improved player and may end up as the best NBA prospect on the current Maryland team. Wells has a lot of work to do, but he has the talent needed to be a first round pick down the line.

Thursday, August 30, 2012

Scouting Report: Reggie Bullock

Height: 6'5.5''
Wingspan: 6'8.5''
Weight: 190lbs
Bday: 3/16/91

Team: North Carolina
Class of 2014

Being the fifth starter of a North Carolina lineup (after Strickland went down) that saw the other 4 members all get drafted in the first round, Bullock was a lot of the times the forgotten man, but he didn't seem to mind. He proved to be a good role player, complimenting star Harrison Barnes on the wing by providing defense and outside shooting. He beat out incoming McDonald's All-American PJ Hairston for the minutes not because he was a better scorer - he is not - but because of everything else he does.

Bullock's offense last year was very simple. 5 of his 7.6 shot attempts per game were 3-pt shots. It is safe to say that at least one other shot attempt a game came in transition thanks to Kendall Marshall and the Tar Heels uptempo offense. So that leaves Bullock with maybe one shot he created per game. And thats generous because Marshall could have created some of those looks too. Plus he averaged nearly 2 offensive rebounds per game so there was a chance for putbacks.

Oh look, its Reggie Bullock shooting a 3


This doesn't mean Bullock was completely worthless on offense. Not at all. Bullock isn't a good creator or ball handler, but he didn't have to be on this team so he focused on the little things. He would set screens, crash the boards, occupy the foul line area, and keep the floor spread with the threat of his jumper. Bullock struggles to string together multiple dribbles in line to the rim, but he had a tendency to take two dribbles and stop. This doesn't sound good, but he found a surprising amount of cutters doing this, showing off a nice passing ability. It seemed every time he did this he would set up a teammate with a nice feed. Now his assist numbers weren't impressive (only 2 per 40 minutes pace adjusted), but that isn't because he isn't a smart and good passer. Thats due to the fact that he struggles to create and he also rarely passes while dribbling. He always has to gather himself, partly because he can dribble with his head down. When he is looking up though, he does a great job of seeing the floor.

Bullock will never be a great dribbler, its too much to ask at this point, but he can become good enough to take advantage of his court vision and basketball IQ. Also, he showed a solid mid-range game and floater in high school and I would expect him to start showing these skills more next year. Last year he showed a very small sample of these moves, and also a pull up jumper that looked as efficient as his spot up jumper. He can go a few dribbles to his right and pull up without a problem, but don't expect him to go into isolation mode to create room for a shot.

This stuff isn't necessarily a death sentence in the NBA. Not everyone needs to be a shot creator. Bullock   does create many second chance opportunities just by rebounding the ball and hustling for loose balls. He has already shown he knows how to be a secondary type player and he showed the willingness to do it. Bullock has good intangibles and solid character. He's a guy who likes to laugh and joke around, although he may innocently slip up from time to time like when he said Coach K looks like a rat.

Reggie fit in quite well with his teammates and enjoyed every minute of it


His shooting is something Bullock will have to continue to show consistency with. His freshman year, he shot under 30% from 3 and 13-23 from the line. However, nobody was surprised when Bullock shot 38% from 3 last year with more attempts, and upped his free throw shooting to 72%. Bullock is more of the 38% shooter for sure and he has deep range and nice form on his shot as well. His free throws are bad, but he hardly gets to the line to begin with. That could be why he has never been a good foul shooter as last year he went to the line 0.8 times per game! That was by far the worst mark among rotational wings in college basketball (20+ minutes a game). Even Deividas Dulkys more than doubled that rate.

His lack of ball handling skills really pigeon hole him into the small forward spot - he is not a shooting guard by any stretch of the imagination. On defense though, Bullock has been asked to guard virtually every position except center and has done so successfully. He has a nice frame and a 6'8.5'' wingspan, but his tenacity and effort is what really sets him apart. He pressures the ball and takes away 3-pt chances and has good, but not elite lateral quickness. Bullock isn't going to be a lockdown defender, but he is a very good defender in college basketball and that should carry over to the next level. He also rebounds the ball well and plays good help defense.

Overall, Bullock is what he is. I think a lot of people are expecting that Bullock will take a big leap this year and become more of a scorer. His points are obviously going to go up, but it will be PJ Hairston who becomes the go-to scorer on the wing - not Bullock. Hairston is a lot more of a natural shot creator while Bullock can help out, while still concentrating on doing the little things. If you have high expectations for Bullock this year, you may end up disappointed, resulting in you downing him as a prospect. But if you accept what he is and focus on what he does well, you will see why he can be a nice role player in the NBA. Bullock doesn't have star potential and may not even be a sure fire first rounder, but as a basketball player, he is someone that you wouldn't mind having in your rotation.

Friday, August 17, 2012

Comparing Robert Covington to Danny Granger

I wanted to give a scouting report of Covington and the best way to truly access his game in my opinion is to compare him against Granger, who reminds me a ton of Covington. Using DraftExpress's college scouting report of Granger, I'll breakdown how they are similar and also the differences that could prevent Covington from achieving the same success.
"Granger has a prototypical body for an NBA small forward. He has good size and strength at 6-8, 225 pounds, a solid wingspan and very solid athletic ability. He is smart and smooth, but very physical, and has fantastic footwork to go along with an excellent (and very quick) vertical leap."
Robert Covington came out of high school at a paltry 190 pounds but has gained 30 pounds in the last three season, bringing him up to 225 pounds. His frame doesn't look much different than Granger's. Both of them are built really solid and by the time Covington is drafted, he should have no problem being near Granger's combine weight. Covington is also listed at 6'9'', slightly taller than Granger and possesses a nice wingspan. I'd consider both to be similar athletes - very solid and smooth yet not freakish. But their combination of size, athleticism, and coordination make them a rare catch.

Granger might have been more physical, as he was more of a post player in his first few seasons before transferring to New Mexico State, but Covington is no softy. He never hesitates to put a body on someone. Definitely no concern there at small forward - he is above average if anything. He also has good footwork from the perimeter, threatening the offense with multiple potential moves with the ball. Again, his footwork doesn't touch Granger's in the post as Covington doesn't operate from the post much, but thats not completely relevant when discussing small forwards.

Covington is a quick leaper as well and he averaged 1.7 blocks per 40 minutes (pace adjusted as always) to prove it. In Granger's junior season, he had 1.8 rejections per game.
"What makes Granger an especially intriguing player for playoff teams who are picking in the 2nd half of the 1st round (15-30) is the fact that he is so versatile. He can score from anywhere on the floor, create his own shot, defend, rebound, block shots, come up with steals, and pass very well."
I could have very easily wrote that last quote word for word while switching Granger for Covington. Versatility is the name of both of their games. The are stat sheet stuffers - guys who can average 2 steals and blocks a game while getting rebounds and covering both perimeter and post players. Covington has no problem getting his shot up anywhere on the court, possessing a good crossover and the balance to rise and shoot off the dribble. He is a very smooth shooter who can hit the mid-range jumper and come off screens to hit 3s. He also can drive and finish at the hoop.
"Granger is a team player, he's extremely competitive and unselfish and only cares about one thing, and that's winning games. He had numerous opportunities to pad his stats and show off for the many NBA scouts who have made the trip to Albuquerque this year, but has shown absolutely no interest in doing so. He has a good court demeanor and plays the game calm, but very confident. In terms of character everyone agrees that Granger is the type of player and person an NBA team can feel comfortable investing money in. He's very smart on and off the court. Granger does not take many bad shots, which is especially impressive if you consider that his team usually needs him to score in bundles to win. Most star players who play for smaller schools don't shoot a great percentage from the field, but Granger is sitting at a very solid 53% on the year."
 Covington has been able to lead Tennessee State to their first winning season since 1995-96 and their first 20 win season in 20 years. If it wasn't for Murray State's big season, they would have been dancing in March. Covington has been a big part in turning around an abysmal program. He has definitely proven he is a winner. In terms of unselfishness, that fits Covington as well. In fact, it would be nice if he was more aggressive. He doesn't force anything or show off to scouts either. In the three games against Murray State, which were the most attended by NBA personnel, Covington shot above 50% in each of them. He always takes good shots and plays with a similar demeanor as Granger. As a fellow star player at a small school, Covington joins Granger on the rare list of players that shoot a good percentage from the field - shooting 53% as well. How about that?
"He is a very good passer with nice court vision and a knack for putting the ball exactly where his teammates like it, especially when it comes to feeding the post. He prefers to make the simple pass, but can also throw up good lob passes for the alleyoop dunk. At times he can be a little too unselfish even, making the extra pass when his team would clearly benefit from him trying to use his skills to take over the game. This is a borderline strength/weakness on the NBA level, though, especially considering what his role on the floor will be."
Here I would say there is a bit of a discrepancy. Covington's passing isn't anything Id write home about. He's a solid passer, but from what Ive seen, not to the extend that DraftExpress described Granger. His unselfishness can be a positive in the same way Granger's is in the NBA, though. Makes him a good complimentary wing.
"Defensively, his team plays a lot of zone, but he shows excellent potential in this area in the rare opportunity he gets to guard the other team's star player. New Mexico wisely saves his energy for the offensive end where they need him more, and therefore can not afford to get in foul trouble either. When he does get to play the type of tough man to man defense he seems to enjoy, though, he really shines. His combination of strength, length, athletic ability, intensity, determination and excellent footwork give him the potential to be a very good defender on the NBA level once he is fully unleashed. These same skills along with his good hands and the ability to elevate quickly off the floor also make him a very good rebounder as well, pulling down nine rebounds or more 17 times so far this season. He is also a terrific shotblocker on the college level thanks to his wingspan and excellent leaping ability, but also has very nice timing to really intimidate and alter shots at the rim. He rotates well and possesses a solid understanding of where to place himself in a zone defense, while also showing good leadership skills in directing his teammates on this side of the floor. He anticipates well and knows how to get in the passing lanes, coming up with many steals and igniting the fast break."
Covington faces the same problem of playing a lot of zone, but at times in big games, such as against Murray State, he was the guy they trusted to cover Isaiah Canaan. He definitely has a good feel on the defensive end and makes a lot of plays happen and his versatility is never a negative. He's a great college defender who should be a fine perimeter defender in the NBA. While Granger was raved about in this section defensively, he never became an elite defender so I would say they are in the same wavelength here. Granger's physical tools are slightly better, but its pretty close across the board.
"Offensively, he has a wide variety of skills he can use to score, although none of them can be considered too polished right now. He likes to use his strength and footwork to back his man down towards the basket, finishing in a variety of ways (spin moves, around the hoop thanks to his wingspan. He can put the ball on the floor and take the ball strong to the basket, finishing with contact if necessary. His range has improved dramatically over the years, a testament to his work ethic, going from hitting 9 threes in his first two seasons at a 24% clip to shooting 44% from behind the arc on over three attempts per game. He has very good mechanics and a high release on his jump shot. He is also pretty solid from the line at 74% and possesses a decent mid-range game."
This is where Covington's more perimeter oriented play in college helps him out. While Granger had the advantage in the post, Covington has had more time to adjust to playing small forward. There has never been a question about Covington's shot, as he is an excellent shooter, especially with his feet set. He is very smooth running around screens and has a quick trigger. Granger's high release is true for Covington as well. For Granger, he quickly turned into this kind of player when he went to the NBA, so while Covington seemingly had the edge in college, I think he'd be happy being able to do the things Granger can do shooting wise in the NBA. And with his range and ability to get his shot off, he should have no problem being a threat from deep. From the free throw line, Covington was slightly better but failed to get to the line as much.

In terms of taking the ball to the hoop, Covington has shown that ability consistently although there are some questions. He is comfortable with taking the ball to the rim, but lacks the ball handling abilities to fully take advantage of it. Right now, he has the confidence and picks his spots well, but improvement is a must. With his size and mid-range game it doesn't need to be great, he just gets the ball stripped to much at this point. He also needs to work on keeping the ball higher and more protected when driving. His left hand isn't far behind his right hand though, as he had no reservations driving either direction.

 Granger's two main weaknesses revolved around his inexperience on the perimeter -
Most of Granger's weaknesses stem from the fact that he was played in the post for most of his collegiate career. His main one is his ball-handling, which will need serious work for him to become a shot-creating threat in the NBA. His left hand is particularly weak, as most everything of what he does off the dribble tends to be with his right. This hurts his slashing ability, as his first step isn't lightning quick as it is.

Granger's perimeter shooting has always been a big concern, but he has worked extremely hard to improve his range and become more consistent in this area. He didn't take a large amount of 3 pointers this year (averaging about 1.5 makes per game) so he will likely have to show that his jump shot is solid in workouts, especially when it comes to shooting off the dribble."
We've touched on these subjects already, but Covington's first step isn't great either. Both did cover some ground on their steps though and could bait the defender with jab steps and the threat of the jumper. Covington may actually have had a better left hand than Granger at this point in time.

Granger became the shooting type and thats where I expect Covington to follow in Granger's footsteps. They took slightly different paths in college as Granger was forced into the post more, but I believe their skillsets ultimately could wind up the same. As you can see in the two pictures, both have a little lean on their jumpers that make it impossible to contest. Being able to get your shot off whenever while being a very high percentage shooter is a recipe for success. Especially when you can fill the stat sheet in other categories as well and play unselfish basketball.

Two small school guys, both wearing number 33, and both were heavily slept on following their junior seasons. I am a firm believer that Covington could surge into the first round like Granger and become a top 20 pick. Becoming an all-star player is a bigger limb to walk out on, but if Covington has a Granger-esque work ethic it is plausible. Either way, Covington is way underrated right now. He is possibly the best senior in the nation.

Wednesday, August 15, 2012

Scouting Report: Andre Roberson

Height: 6'7''
Weight: 210lbs
Wingspan: 6'11'' (?)
Bday: 12/4/1991

Team: Colorado
Class of 2014

Andre Roberson arrived on campus as an unheralded prospect, a skinny 6'6'' power forward who had shown enough promise to eventually become a college small forward. Playing with Cory Higgins and Alec Burks his freshman year, Roberson didn't have a chance to shoot much but found a way to make a impact on the game with his defense and rebounding. His ability to make his impact felt without the ball put him on the radar and had scouts pegging him for a breakout sophomore campaign with Higgins and Burks headed to the NBA. Roberson's sophomore year showed even more promise although he didn't takeover offensively, and now heading into his junior year, Roberson is expected to make yet another leap. Something he is good at.

Roberson is a tremendous athlete on the court. Since he came into Boulder, his body has improved, and he is now being listed at 6'7'' with a long wingspan to help compensate his shortcomings. He has also put on a good amount of weight to the point where that shouldn't be a huge factor anymore. When watching Roberson, his determination and tenacity combined with the wiry strength he does possess, has been enough to keep him from getting pushed around. Roberson is so active that I am not even sure he stays in one spot long enough for someone to get a body on him.

His activeness around the basket is a lethal combination with his fluid athleticism. He has aggregated those tools to become one of the top rebounders in the country and reminded some scouts of Kawhi Leonard because of it.

In my opinion, Roberson's athleticism is more reminiscent of Hakim Warrick. Leonard was built strong while Warrick and Roberson are more bouncy and fluid. At this point in time, Leonard was a better prospect because of his ball skills. Leonard was a lot easier to project into a small forward role at the next level while Roberson is still very much a tweener on offense.

Roberson's current offense game mainly revolves around put backs, transition opportunities, and straight drives to the hoop. He has shown minimal signs of a post game and his progression as a player makes it appear that he is working towards becoming a small forward in the NBA. He has shown the ability to knock down open jumpers with his feet set, shooting 38% from the 3-pt line, but his shot is very mechanical and rarely forced. His statistics tell a better story of his shot than it actually is. His free throw percentage explains his struggle shooting. Still, he is able to spread the floor.

Roberson wasn't the focal point of the offense even with Burks and Higgins gone and spent equal amount of time on the perimeter as he did setting picks and occupying the paint. Roberson was unable to create his own shots, looking very unnatural shooting of the dribble, but did show good explosion to the basket driving all the way out to the three point line. He is a straight line driver (and very right hand dominant) but has enough body control to put himself in position for a high percentage shot once he gets to the rim. He absorbs contact well and is an all around terrific finisher. He combines the toughness of a big man with the craftiness of a wing once he is at the rim.

Roberson also runs the court very well, looking for every chance possible to get easy buckets. He plays well off the ball and creates a lot of easy dunks at the rim because of it. Every time a shot goes up, Roberson crashes the boards in case of a miss. He has shown a nice touch on tip backs or tipping the ball out to teammates.

While his offense can be a nice complimentary piece since he doesn't need the ball, his defense can be game changing. Roberson is best with freedom, where he can roam off the ball a provide help at the rim. His shotblocking ability is terrific and may be underrated due to the fact that he spends some time covering perimeter players. He is able to block shots with both hands and really makes an art of it. He blocks shots playing straight man defense, helping off the ball, directly at the rim, coming from behind, and is able to block jumpers at the apex of the shot. Because of his shot blocking ability and elite rebounding, I do like Roberson at the power forward.

Roberson has looked fine guarding on the perimeter, but his length is more effective than his lateral quickness. He can be a good wing defender, but I don't think you get the most value out of him by confining him to that one task. He would be best used on defense in a Josh Smith type role.

Roberson has a good amount of potential and the trajectory of his improvements to date should be enough to believe he will continue to get even better, but even without the potential, Roberson brings a lot to the table. He is an elite rebounder, a impact defender, and an above average finisher at the rim. I have some reservations about Roberson becoming a full time small forward, but there is no reason he has to be. He has unique abilities and the best way to utilize him will be in a specialize role. His energy will be perfect off the bench at the beginning of the career and if he grows into more, it is a bonus. If not, you have a borderline starter who plays a brand of basketball you can win with. Roberson has a long way to go offensively as a small forward and will never be a great ball handler, but don't let that distract you from what he can bring to the table. He is easily a first round pick at this point, even without improvement, and Id expect him to be drafted somewhere in the teens on draft night.