Stock Attack: Michael Carter-Williams

When I'm evaluating point guard prospects, I take a especially close look at their ability to control the tempo of the game, I also like to see how they handle adversity, run the pick and roll, change speeds, and balance scoring and passing. A point guard cannot disappear during the game. A point guard has to be the rock of the team. That is what I am looking for, guys with those traits.

Trey Burke has all of that. When it comes to Michael Carter-Williams, I'm hesitant to say he possesses any of those qualities. He disappeared from plenty of games. His passing consisted of a lot of drive and kicks and transition feeds. Yes, MCW did post great assists numbers. But how the assists were obtained are more important. When I look at MCW, I ask if he can consistently make plays out of the pick and roll and find teammates. Or if he can control the pace, set the offense, and make the simple plays. Where is his mid-range game? Carter-Williams makes a lot of spectacular plays and is a helluva talent, but he hasn't shown he can be a model of consistency. That is troubling from a point guard prospect.

There were a lot of games where Carter-Williams was quiet for an entire half and dominated the other. For some guys, thats just a matter of them knowing when to take over. For Carter-Williams, it was more of him being taken out of the game by the defense.

We are talking about a guy whose skills aren't up to par. He shoots a very flat shot with inconsistent mechanics. Some say he was a better shooter in HS, but that doesn't mean anything to me after he's had more than a full season at the college level. I saw that he did shoot well in Nike's EYBL events in AAU, but I don't take much stock into that. Those rims are very kind to make the players look better and benefit guys who don't shoot with much arc.

If you can't make shots consistently, the rest of your game better be refined. Carter-Williams is not. His ball handling skills are weak and magnified by his lack of strength. When he drives and the defense doesn't collapse on him to give him a passing option, he struggles to finish. He does have a nice floater, but can't get it off consistently. He lacks an explosive first step. Instead, Carter-Williams has to rely on his above average quickness for his size and a solid crossover. It works, but its much more of a shooting guard move than a point guard.

A point guard shouldn't need to overdribble to get his shot off. A point guard should understand how to change speeds and work the pick and roll game effectively. Burke was never taken out of games because he could always makes plays if he got a ball screen. Carter-Williams has a tougher task to operate in the pick and roll due to his height and he doesn't do himself any favors either. He doesn't change speeds well or mix up his strides. He's very shaky with the ball when two defenders are around him and his passing instincts look much more raw when it comes to more advanced plays.

Again, the drive and kick play is the most simple way for a point guard to get assists. Its the most basic play that any point guard should be able to execute. Carter-Williams can do it with the best of them in college, but  that doesn't make him a point guard. That is just the initial layer to being a point guard and when you look for more layers to his game, they aren't present.

Carter-Williams also struggled mightily against ball pressure as you saw if you watched the Big East Championship game against Louisville. For the first half, MCW and Cuse played well enough to have the lead. In the second half, Louisville turned up their defensive pressure and completely blew out Syracuse. The difference in halves was remarkable and the biggest blame goes to the point guard.

Then there was the Final 4 game against Michigan. Carter-Williams fouled out and went to the bench crying as if the game was over. Except it wasn't and Syracuse almost won the game. But there he was sitting on the bench with his head buried in a towel instead of cheering on his team. A leader doesn't act as if the game is over because he fouled out. Throughout the year, Syracuse was one of the most up and down teams in the country and there wasn't much leadership coming from their point guard. For a guy who should be the rock of the team, Carter-Williams was one of the most inconsistent players - both with his play on the court and in his emotions. You shouldn't ever get too high or too low as a basketball player - especially as a point guard. Its yet another thing Michael Carter-Williams has to overcome.

He gets some comparisons to Shaun Livingston but Livingston was a great athlete coming out of high school while Carter-Williams is just "good" athletically. Also, Carter-Williams wasn't even considered a point guard coming out of HS and there was a reason for that. Shaun Livingston had such pure point guard skills he was compared to Magic Johnson.

Defensively, Michael Carter-Williams has all the tools and good instincts to go with it. He had plenty of steals operating at the top of the zone and while his length and the system certainly helped, his ability to play the passing lanes should somewhat translate to the NBA. The biggest worry about his defense though is that he doesn't have experience at a high level playing man to man defense. And in recent times, Syracuse players have really struggled to make the adjustment. Even guys like Wes Johnson who people believed had all the athletic tools to make up for player in a zone. Right now, its just a very risky proposition to take a Syracuse player for his defensive ability. Carter-Williams could turn out to be very good defensively, but I wouldn't view it as a sure thing.

Potential is a word that is often associated with Michael Carter-Williams when you point out all these flaws. Sure, he has the height that most other point guards don't have. You can't teach size. But its also very hard to learn and improve all his other weaknesses when there are so many. There is potential and then there is the chances a player reaches his potential. I understand that you can't count out a guy improving his skills, but you can say a guy won't grow, but I'll take players with the necessary skills and ability over a guy with height anyday. Those attributes are very hard to improve as well. And at the age of 21, Michael Carter-Williams is far from the youngest player in the draft.

Stock Attack: Mason Plumlee

Every year there are a couple of players that jump out at me as extremely overrated and Mason Plumlee headlines that list in 2013. He's been projected in the lottery, even top 10, all season long and still sits in the lottery discussion today. His stock looks more unstable now with Gorgui Dieng getting a lot of recognition and Steven Adams deciding to enter the draft, but there is still a strong belief that Plumlee will be a solid third big man.

Personally, I've never seen it with him. I've said all season long that Gorgui Dieng is the better prospect and still stand by it. Dieng makes fewer mental mistake, can consistently hit jumpers, and is a bigger presence at the rim.

Scouts like Mason Plumlee because he has improved every year. Thats one way at looking at it. But I see a guy who vastly underachieved his first few seasons given his situation and athleticism. Name me a Duke player who hasn't made big strides under Coach K. Look at how Nolan Smith is looking in the NBA.

This year Mason Plumlee did look much better, in part because he was more aggressive. He wasn't afraid of going to the foul line anymore since his shooting at the line improved.

History says that seniors that improve a lot their final year aren't to be trusted and the eye test gives similar concerns. If it takes you four years to put it together at a school like Duke when you have great athleticism, that sends up some major red flags. Coach K consistently gets the most out of his players, gets them drafted higher than they should be, and then we hear all about how Duke can't produce NBA players. Yet time and time again everyone falls into the trap of Coach K's magic.

Of course, evaluating prospects is a still a case by case basis. While Plumlee has his age and school as red flags, that is no way to determine if a guy is overrated. But when you watch Plumlee play, the amount of mental mistakes he makes throws up yet another red flag.

Then you get to talking about his position. Is he a power forward or a center? His mechanical style, lack of lateral quickness, smarts, or shooting ability suggest that he can't play power forward well. But as a center, his narrow hips and 6'10 wingspan are both major deterrents. You can improve your upperbody strength all you want, but genetically small hips are a different story.

But what about his offensive game, you say? He did put up over 17ppg in the ACC. But what translates? He isn't hitting jumpers at a consistent rate. He constantly got pushed out of good post position on the block due to lack of strength. Plumlee did show off an improved post game this year and as I said, his aggressiveness didn't hurt either. But his post game is still very mechanical. There is no rhyme or reason to his moves. He makes a lot of awful plays the end of successful because of his athleticism and new found confidence. Take away some of that confidence he gained from this season and you are back to a passive player without much else. And its a fact that his confidence will take a hit once he reaches the NBA - it happens to most players.

Plumlee's post moves consist of a nice right handed hook shot and then a lot of freestyle. A lot of stuff he won't get away with at the next level. He can't freestyle his way to the rim in the pros from post position 15 feet out. The help defense is too good.

It is really hard to pinpoint what Plumlee's strengths will be at the next level. Is it his defense or offense? Is he just a good all-around player or a player who isnt good at anything?

I've been leaning towards the latter side so much that I've fallen over. And based of Mason Plumlee's lack of balance, he better be careful he doesn't bust and fall on his face as well.

Stock Attack: Terrence Jones

Current Consensus Projection: Lottery

Terrence Jones hit his freshman season with a head of steam this year, immediately planting himself in lottery discussions. After some huge games against Oklahoma (29pts 13boards) and Notre Dame (27pts 17boards) combined with a Irving injury and Barnes's struggle, he even received some support as the number one pick. He had the numbers, but to me, the numbers didnt exactly add up.

Now he has quietly comeback down to earth, while most still put him right outside of the top 5.  He's never been a top 5 pick in my mind, or even a lottery guy, and I feel like Ive already been somewhat justified in my beliefs. For one, Calipari has stated that he feels none of his players are ready for the NBA Draft. He didnt say that about Patterson, Wall, and Cousins. He's not the kind of coach that can sabotage players' stock for his own benefit.

But hey, if I relied on coaches to form opinions Id have Marshon Brooks pegged as the best scorer in the Big East and sure-fire first rounder, while believing that Kenneth Faried is the best thing since Dennis Rodman (credit to Rick Pitino for both). Ive taken in plenty of Terrence Jones games myself and see him having a rough transition into the league.

I have nothing against tweeners - if I did Id be attacking Vesely, Derrick Williams, and Kawhi Leonard too - but Terrence Jones college game thrives off of mismatches he wont see in the NBA. He faces up PFs and takes them off the dribble and takes smaller defenders into the post. I guess thats where the Lamar Odom comparisons come from, right?

But can he drive by small forwards or elite PFs?

He hasnt shown the skillset to make someone believe that he offers much variety offensively. He only drives  left. You wonder why his play dropped off going through the SEC a second time? Teams figured him out. Its not too hard. He can only drive left, he doesnt change directions well, and doesnt play smart team-oriented ball offensively. His shooting percentage has managed to drop. He's only shooting 43% from the floor now. It beats Harrison Barnes, but there is a big difference between them. Barnes has been scoring by using NBA moves, things that he will also be able to do at the next level. Also, Jones is a 3/4 while Barnes is a 2/3.

The rest of his offensive game isnt helping him. He can post guys up, but not even his biggest fans believe he will be a major post threat in the NBA. His jumper is ugly. He shoots 31% from 3 and 65% from the line. Jumpshots can always been fixed, but his needs a lot of work.

Lets get to the defensive end of the court. Who does he guard? The biggest thing that determines a tweener is the fact that they are in between postions not on offense, but on defense. Offenses can use tweeners to their advantage - on defense, they are often ostracized by opponents and exposed. In my opinion, Terrence Jones has a better shot at playing SF. He actually plays great on ball defense when given the opportunity. He wont be as good against NBA SFs, but I think he could be passable in terms of one on one defense. Too bad defense involves more than that, though, and that is where I question Jones's awareness and BBIQ. Time and time again, he will get himself out of positions trying to play help defense. Trying is the operative word because he usually just places himself in between ball and man without being in position to effect either. What ends up happening a lot of times is a skip pass to his man, which forces Jones to scramble back to his man. He closes out quick, but with no sense of defending the drive. He makes it very simple for the defender to catch the ball and use his momentum against him. He puts himself in these positions over and over again, which is frustrating to me that he doesnt recognize his bad positioning and ensuring close outs. Going along with that, he also tends to bite on play fakes and fall asleep and lose his man. He needs to show better commitment to all that defense in basketball entails - not just what he has to do when his man has the ball.

In the end, there are too many forwards out there that are better bets. Id take Kawhi Leonard, John Henson, Derrick Williams, Perry Jones, Jan Vesely, and possibly Tobias Harris before him. Those are just the combo guys. Other forwards Id take over him are Tyler Honeycutt, Harrison Barnes, Jared Sullinger, Tristan Thompson, Jordan Hamilton, and Marcus Morris. Coach Cal might be wrong, though, it might be best for Jones to leave before Kentucky's super class of forwards comes in to steal his minutes.