2013 Small Forwards Prospects By the Numbers

A week ago, we took a loot at the point guard prospects by the numbers. Now we will see how the small forward prospects grade out based off the numbers provided by hoop-data.com. I excluded Otto Porter from this study as I view him as the best small forward prospect by a considerable margin.

*For Glen Rice Jr, I used his data from his previous year at Georgia Tech.

% of Shots at the Rim

Carrick Felix - 43%

James Ennis - 35%

Solomon Hill - 27%

Robert Covington - 25%

Shabazz Muhammad - 24%

Glen Rice Jr - 21%

Deshaun Thomas - 20%

Adonis Thomas - 18%

FG% at the Rim

Glen Rice Jr - 76%

Deshaun Thomas - 74%

James Ennis - 72%

Carrick Felix - 71%

Shabazz Muhammad - 65%

Robert Covington - 64%

Solomon Hill - 63%

Adonis Thomas - 62%

% Assisted at the Rim

Adonis Thomas - 58%

Shabazz Muhammad - 58%

Carrick Felix - 56%

Deshaun Thomas - 48%

Robert Covington - 44%

James Ennis - 41%

Glen Rice Jr - 34%

Solomon Hill - 14%

% Shots 2-pt Jumpers

Adonis Thomas - 59%

Shabazz Muhammad - 53%

Deshaun Thomas - 45%

Robert Covington - 40%

Glen Rice Jr - 37%

Solomon Hill - 31%

James Ennis - 24%

Carrick Felix - 19%

FG% 2pt Jumpers

Solomon Hill - 40%

Glen Rice Jr - 40%

Adonis Thomas - 39%

Deshaun Thomas - 39%

Shabazz Muhammad - 37%

Carrick Felix - 34%

James Ennis - 31%

Robert Covington - 25%

% 2-pt Jumpers Assisted

Adonis Thomas - 54%
Shabazz Muhammad - 47%
Deshaun Thomas - 43%
Robert Covington - 41%
Carrick Felix - 32%
Solomon Hill - 23%
Glen Rice Jr - 17%

James Ennis - 14%

% of 3-pt Shots

Solomon Hill - 42%
Glen Rice Jr - 42%
James Ennis - 41%
Robert Covington - 38%
Carrick Felix - 37%
Deshaun Thomas - 35%
Adonis Thomas - 24%
Shabazz Muhammad - 23%

3-pt FG%

Solomon Hill - 39%
Carrick Felix - 38%
Robert Covington - 38%
Shabazz Muhammad - 38%
Deshaun Thomas - 35%
Glen Rice Jr - 34%
James Ennis - 33%
Adonis Thomas - 29%

% of 3-pt Shots Assisted

Shabazz Muhammad - 100%
Carrick Felix - 96%
Deshaun Thomas - 96%
Adonis Thomas - 92%
Robert Covington - 87%
Solomon Hill - 82%
James Ennis - 68%
Glen Rice Jr - 68%

Observations

James Ennis - James Ennis stands out in this group as a finisher which comes to no surprise. He's the best athlete among the 8 prospects and his team pushed the ball with every chance they could get. You can tell that his team lacked any kind of halfcourt structure on offense which forced Ennis to create more than he should have to. Even though Ennis isn't a good ball handler, he was forced to create a large amount of his jumpshots. He does have a quick step back jumper move, but that isnt his game. Playing in a halfcourt setting in the NBA will be a big adjustment for him. He doesn't have a mid-range game and relies on circus shots in the lane. He will have to improve his jumper. He hit 3s at a good rate but his release has to get quicker.

Carrick Felix - Felix is the most similar to Ennis and both of their strengths are more on the defensive end. Felix played in a much more structured offense however, which complimented his strengths well. He didn't have to create at all and while he also lacks a middle game, he wasn't put in a situation where he had to score off the dribble. Like Ennis, he is a real solid finisher at the rim. He has also turned himself into a good spot up 3-pt shooter. I view Ennis as a better prospect than Felix because of his athletic edge and added playmaking ability.

Solomon Hill - Hill is one of the worst finishers at the rim in the group, but makes up for it with his polished mid-range game. He has the best floor game of the group and has the most versatile offensive attack. He doesn't have to get all the way to the rim to score. He also tested out as the best shooter in the group by leading in both 2-pt% and 3-pt% while taking a higher volume of 3s than anyone. He's a good spot up shooter but also can get his shot off the dribble.

Glen Rice Jr - The more you look at Glen Rice Jr, the more you see how much the situation at Georgia Tech prevented him from showing his true potential. Rice Jr had to create almost all his shots at Georgia Tech as he was near the bottom in assisted shots in all 3 categories. He was also the best finisher at the rim and in the mid-range area, despite not having the advantage of getting any easy baskets. The one area Rice Jr doesn't show well here is 3-pt shooting, but he might actually be the best shooter out of the 8. He proved this year in the D-League that he has no problem with the NBA 3-pt line.

Shabazz Muhammad - There is a big concern with Shabazz's ability to get to the rim based off these numbers. He was in the bottom half in terms of % of shots at the rim while receiving more assisted plays at the rim than anyone. Considering Shabazz also scored a lot of offensive rebounds, the numbers prove the Muhammad was unable to put the ball on the floor and get all the way to the rim at UCLA. He also seemed incapable of creating room for his jump shots. All of his 3-pt makes were assisted and he trailed only Adonis Thomas in most 2-pt jumpers assisted. His mid-range game, however, does show promise.

Deshaun Thomas - Thomas didn't really standout in any one category. We know he can shoot the ball, but he didn't shoot it at an exceptional clip. And there is a big concern with his ability to get shots off at the next level. A lot of his shots were assisted and he doesn't really have any reliable moves to get his shot up. As a small forward at the next level, he will struggle to shoot over longer defenders due to his lack of quickness and height. He did convert well at the rim in limited attempts, but that isnt his game.

Adonis Thomas - Thomas' numbers at the rim couldn't be any more. Despite shooting less at the rim than anyone and having the highest percentage of his shots assisted, Thomas still was last in converting at the rim. Thats a red flag and very puzzling for someone with his size and athleticism. These numbers scream lack of aggression. He did fair well in the mid-range area, which passes the eye test when watching him as well. Thomas will also need to improve his range as he shot worse from 3 this year than anyone.

Robert Covington - For a guy his size and playing against the competition he did, Covington really didn't show as well at the rim as you'd like to see. More concerning was his FG% on 2-pt jumpers since he projects to be a jump shooter at the next level. He ranked last in that area by a fair margin. Tennessee State needed a guy who could create shots this season and he proved that he struggled in that area. Still, Covington brings a nice combination of athleticism and outside shooting that could eventually get him into the NBA.

After watching more film on each of these prospects and taking a look at them by the numbers, here are my personal revised rankings:

1. Glen Rice Jr (late lottery to mid-first round)
2. Shabazz Muhammad (mid-first round)
3. Solomon Hill (early second round)
4. Adonis Thomas (early second round)
5. James Ennis (second round)
6. Deshaun Thomas (second round)
7. Carrick Felix (second round to undrafted)
8. Robert Covington (second round to undrafted)

Others worth noting: James Southerland, Rodney Williams, Will Clyburn

Mid-Majors Shine Together

As a draft blogger, you grow attached to certain teams. Of course, you watch the same big schools that everyone else does. The Blue Devils, Kentucky, and the Jayhawks. But you also watch the same small schools over and over again and find yourself getting to know not only their star player, but the rest of the team as well. Not only do you want to see these schools make the NCAA tournament in order to evaluate them on a bigger stage, but also because you start to become a fan of the school. For most small schools with NBA prospects, this is a rare opportunity for exposure and it is fun to be along for the ride with them.

Among the teams that I have found myself watching over and over again this year are North Texas, South Dakota State, Murray State, Detroit, Bucknell, Illinois State, Creighton, and Lehigh. There are other schools as well - Long Beach State and James Ennis, Davidson, Drexel, and Tennessee State.

Tonight, quite a few of the prominent mid/low-major schools were in action. North Texas played Troy and got their first conference win after starting off 0-2. Now, Troy is the worst team in the Sun Belt so it is no reason to get excited for the simple fact that they got the victory. But Tony Mitchell had his best game of the season - scoring 29 points and adding 15 rebounds. Mitchell is capable of these performances against any Sun Belt team, but it is more impressive how he did it. He was the aggressive Tony Mitchell we've been waiting to see all season. He got to the line 12 times, blocked 4 shots, and finally took advantage of easy points in transition by running the court. North Texas's offense had a sense of rhythm to it that has been rare this season. Granted it was Troy, but this is a good blueprint for them to follow for the rest of the season.

The attitude of North Texas fans towards Mitchell is a mixed bag, with a lot of fans disappointed in his effort so far this season. He's not the typical low-major star where he is worshiped on campus. He has his fair share of detractors.

Out in South Dakota, however, they live and breath Jackrabbits basketball because of Nate Wolters. Wolters has been a major part of the program for 4 seasons and is looking to get his team back into the NCAA tournament for the second straight season. They improved to 2-1 in the Summit League with their blowout victory over UMKC tonight (nicknamed the Kangaroos). Wolters was a big part of it - scoring 23 points and also providing 7 helpers. He didn't take over the game in a dominating sense. But he did control the game and its pace. The game moves slower for him than the rest of the players and he does a good job manipulating angles to get inside and show off his floater game. He also made a series of nice passes and delivered them in crafty ways. Now, I've been holding off on comparing him to any NBA player but I've had a guy in mind the entire time - Jeremy Lin. I've been hesitant to say it because of all the other things that are associated with Lin.

But if you look back at Lin at Harvard, you will see the similarities. Neither was a great shooter, but both were excellent in the pick and roll game because of their ability to play at their own pace. They are average athletes, attackers, have good touch inside, play with confidence, struggle defensively, and have similar slow release jumpshots. Lin was never looked at as much of a NBA player but obviously put in a lot of work between college and the Knicks to get to where he is now. Wolters is no stranger to work and has Lin's roadmap to the NBA to follow.

Also in action was Detroit who handled Milwaukee to advance to 1-0 in Horizon League play. Ray McCallum had a modest 13 points, but also helped out with 7 rebounds and 6 assists. McCallum is viewed as a second rounder at best on DraftExpress, but I see him as a very good backup point guard that is capable of starting for some teams - a less crafty Eric Maynor type. I highlighted McCallum's notable plays from tonight in the video below. I must say, he hasn't shown a lot of versatility in his game for much of this season. He's settling for 3s while being very good out in transition. We know he is capable of other things though, and has been impressive at times - such as the 2nd half against Syracuse.

In other action, Long Beach State lost a tough one to Cal Poly 79-73. Both teams look like contenders to win the Big West's automatic bid, but I'm rooting for LBSU in order to see Ennis in at least one more high profile game. He had 22 points and 5 blocks tonight.

Tennessee State advanced to 2-0 in the Ohio Valley Conference, despite Patrick Miller and Robert Covington being out. Covington has been out for both wins and figures to miss 4 to 6 more weeks after his recent knee surgery. Tennessee State didn't look like a good team in non-conference play, so their start is a bit surprising. Although, this is the OVC.

Still, Tennessee State will need to win their conference tournament and they will have a tough time upsetting Murray State. The Racers held off TSU in last year's championship game and the talent gap between the two teams has widened. Murray State may be more dangerous than last year's team with even more experience and the emergence of Ed Daniel. They picked up their first OVC win tonight against Tennessee-Martin.

Catching Up With Tony Mitchell

Much has been made of Tony Mitchell's slow start so far this season. Coming off a game where he only got off one shot, many people questioned how that was even possible.

I watched tonight's game, the game after his one shot performance, and he scored 18 points on 7-12 shooting. It was a solid performance for Mitchell as well as his team, who managed to hang in with St. Louis until the buzzer, losing 67-63. Mitchell had 14 first half points then had to sit out much of the second half with foul trouble. Once he was inserted back into the lineup, his teammates didn't even look to get him the ball.

Sort of perplexing. North Texas as a whole is perplexing. Heading into this game, they were shooting 26% from 3-pt range yet fared better against zone defenses.

I had two hypothesis for this - one is simple, the more inferior teams on North Texas ran zone against them in attempt to limit Mitchell. This makes plenty of sense.

The other could have to do with the amount of double teams Mitchell receives. Whenever Mitchell gets the ball in the post, he is automatically doubled - creating open looks for teammates outside the arc. So North Texas may actually get more 3-pt looks against man to man defense.

Fascinating.

More fascinating may be how first year North Texas coach Tony Benford has used Mitchell - or hasn't used him. It is tough being a coach of a lottery big man on a team of below average, shot happy guards. There is a lot of pressure to feature Mitchell, but it is something that also would help the team win.

Another thing Benford has to deal with is his center - Tony Mitchell - preferring to showcase his small forward skills to NBA scouts. Or his lack of them. You know what they say about guys trying to prove they can do something: they usually prove instead that they can't do it.

Mitchell may have another reason however of floating outside. The double teams. Mitchell can't show his post game because he is swarmed after each touch. When Mitchell parks himself in the post, you can tell it is hard for him to stay in the game mentally. Not only because of the double teams, but because of his teammates' idolization of their own offensive games.

And so is it best to park Mitchell down there? Sure he creates open looks, but he doesn't get to shoot himself. And as mentioned before, North Texas can't hit threes.

So that is what brings Mitchell out around the perimeter. Its a big conundrum and it wouldn't be a problem on a more talented team.

Mitchell faces tough defense off the ball all game and doesn't know how to get open off the ball. He gets some 3-pt shots by trailing in transition and popping on pick and rolls. He gets some putback attempts and throws down some alley-oops. And then there are the times he tries to create offense for himself - a very mixed bag.

His offensive game is somewhat like Andre Roberson's. Both are athletic freaks trying to prove themselves on the perimeter, yet have terrible footwork and decision making skills on the perimeter. They both shuffle their feet, rethink every step, and rely on their first step completely. And both of them can actually hit the 3-pt shot, although it can be ugly. The 3-pt shot gives them better driving opportunities due to strong defensive close outs.

Besides Roberson being 4 months older, Mitchell also is the better prospect because of his strength and his mid-range game potential. Mitchell's frame is much better than Roberson's and allows him to finish in contact and also work more inside. Mitchell's mid-range game actually looks good, as he is creative with his dribble and his jumpshot looks much better from 18 feet in. Mitchell has much more of an offensive mindset than Roberson and thus has more potential in the area. He can be dangerous setting up from the mid-range area with both the jumper and the drive. Mitchell can also post up, but his footwork and balance in these situations make for some ugly looking shots at time.

Mitchell's play pick up once conference play starts and his guards get to face competition more of their level. Same deal I said for Robert Covington who has struggled early. Mitchell's stock has taken a slight dip since the season has began, but he is one of the best athletes in this very weak draft. Believe it or not, he still could even have an outside shot at the #1 pick. His potential is that high.

Senior Rankings (1-5) - Withey, McCollom, Plumlee, Covington, and Wolters

1. CJ McCollom - McCollom may be the best scorer in the country and has already had 3 30+ point games this season; the most in Division 1. He has the ability to take over games with his scoring and lead his team to victory over just about any team in the country. My worries with him are his position and his reliance on long 2-pters. He has the highest potential amongst the seniors and the best chance of making me look silly if I don't rank him #1.

2. Jeff Withey - The second best senior? It sounds weird, but Withey has an elite ability to affect games on the defensive end that should make him a good player in the pros. He moves so fluidly for a 7 footer and gets off the court quickly. He has been Kansas's best player so far, even becoming more of a threat on offense. Kansas can't get much penetration so Withey has been a key factor on offense - being relied upon as a part of their inside/out game. He has shown quick moves in the post and has been more aggressive this season. Withey isn't the most talented senior, but he might be the surest bet to walk onto a NBA team and contribute right away.

3. Mason Plumlee - There is part of me that wants to rank Plumlee lower, but its tough with the season he is having. He very well could be National Player of the Year this season and his stock should start soaring. It won't surprise me if he ends up in the lottery. I don't want to split hairs though with his ranking - my main point is if I were a GM, I'd spend my top 20 pick somewhere else. I'd much rather take Jeff Withey outside the top 20 then spend a top 20 pick on Mason. Nothing against him, he's having a great season, I just question how it all translates to the next level. His offense is a lot of face up looks, but he can't shoot. He relies on the drive, but its going to be hard to keep NBA defenses honest if he can't consistent hit the 15 footer. And his post game is still based on his athleticism. And he doesn't even establish deep post position enough to take advantage of it.

Defensively, he's not an imposing threat as an anchor in the middle, yet doesn't have great lateral quickness to be a good defender against power forwards. He's kind of a tweener in a weird way. The positive thing about Plumlee this season is his energy and rebounding - both which will translate into the NBA. That will be how he hangs his hat in the league - as a energy player off the bench.

4. Robert Covington - Ive written about him twice and summed up his game well here. I watched him put up a bad stat line against Minnesota this year, but it wasn't his fault. Covington offers a great amount of intrigue for a senior prospect. He has starter upside, but could also fail to find a role.

5. Nate Wolters - I've also covered Wolters' game twice - here and here. His season so far has done nothing but build his legend and improve his stock. Right now, he has the best numbers statistically among all PG prospects when you look at all the important requirements - points, assists, 2-pt%, 3-pt%, FTA, FT%, rebounds, turnovers, and steals. Every other top point guard prospect has a flaw in one of these areas - Wolters does not. Of course there are more to projecting players than statistics, but stats are a part of the equation. And make no doubt, Wolters fares well on the eye test as well. Because of his weak schedule, each game against legit competition is important, and Wolters has a big game December 4th against Minnesota that should be fun.

Slow Start for Covington, but No Need to Panic

One of the most under the radar matchups yesterday was Robert Covington against Rodney Williams. Covington has been a favorite of mine and I was disappointed to check the box score this morning and see that he only scored 10 points on 4-11 shooting before fouling out in 22 minutes. Was one of my sleeper prospects exposed as a guy just beating up on weak competition thanks to mismatches?

I got through the first half of the game and felt much better about the outcome. Rodney Williams matched up on Covington the entire half and played great defense, but an even bigger factor was Tennessee State's guard play. They struggled to get the ball into the halfcourt against the Golden Gopher's press and through up ill-advised shots at any chance they got. They seemingly never got Tennessee State set in their offense.

Covington showed little frustration throughout the process of being blown out though, showing solid leadership skills. He came up with a nice steal in the first half and fed a teammate for a lay-up on the break, only to have him go up weak and end up being blocked. Covington was able to score a few times - stepping out for a 3 on a pick and pop, and showing off a nice drop step spin move from about 10 feet from the rim. He actually finished the first half with 7 points on 3-5 shooting before going 1-6 in the second half once the game was already decided.

In a game like this, Covington was unable to take pressure off the guards and bring the ball up himself because he isn't that kind of player. His ball handling skills are good enough for him to drive in a straight line or set up a mid-range jumpshot, but he gets in trouble when he tries to create plays in isolation situations. He didn't have any room for error against Rodney Williams, who played tight defense on him all half.

Tennessee State is 0-3 on the year and the guards look to be at fault. Covington's stat line will suffer because of this, but once the guards find equal competition in conference play, Covington should start to pick up play. This isn't because he can't play against top level competition, moreso that the rest of his team isn't up for that challenge.

As for Minnesota, they look like a top 25 team. Their defense should be one of the top in the country. Rodney Williams, Andre and Austin Hollins, and Trevor Mbawke make up a great core of players who all defend. Williams has been great since moving to power forward and could be a poster child for the NCAA on reasons to stay in school for all 4 years. He has learned so much in that time, going from a low IQ player, to a fluid player who knows where to be on defense and how to move without the ball.

Austin Hollins has always impressed me and its about time I zero in on him as a legit prospect. Andre isn't a bad point guard either. Mbakwe only played 10 minutes off the bench and picked up 4 fouls, but expect him to return close to form this year. 

Comparing Robert Covington to Danny Granger

I wanted to give a scouting report of Covington and the best way to truly access his game in my opinion is to compare him against Granger, who reminds me a ton of Covington. Using DraftExpress's college scouting report of Granger, I'll breakdown how they are similar and also the differences that could prevent Covington from achieving the same success.

"Granger has a prototypical body for an NBA small forward. He has good size and strength at 6-8, 225 pounds, a solid wingspan and very solid athletic ability. He is smart and smooth, but very physical, and has fantastic footwork to go along with an excellent (and very quick) vertical leap."

Robert Covington came out of high school at a paltry 190 pounds but has gained 30 pounds in the last three season, bringing him up to 225 pounds. His frame doesn't look much different than Granger's. Both of them are built really solid and by the time Covington is drafted, he should have no problem being near Granger's combine weight. Covington is also listed at 6'9'', slightly taller than Granger and possesses a nice wingspan. I'd consider both to be similar athletes - very solid and smooth yet not freakish. But their combination of size, athleticism, and coordination make them a rare catch.

Granger might have been more physical, as he was more of a post player in his first few seasons before transferring to New Mexico State, but Covington is no softy. He never hesitates to put a body on someone. Definitely no concern there at small forward - he is above average if anything. He also has good footwork from the perimeter, threatening the offense with multiple potential moves with the ball. Again, his footwork doesn't touch Granger's in the post as Covington doesn't operate from the post much, but thats not completely relevant when discussing small forwards.

Covington is a quick leaper as well and he averaged 1.7 blocks per 40 minutes (pace adjusted as always) to prove it. In Granger's junior season, he had 1.8 rejections per game.

"What makes Granger an especially intriguing player for playoff teams who are picking in the 2nd half of the 1st round (15-30) is the fact that he is so versatile. He can score from anywhere on the floor, create his own shot, defend, rebound, block shots, come up with steals, and pass very well."

I could have very easily wrote that last quote word for word while switching Granger for Covington. Versatility is the name of both of their games. The are stat sheet stuffers - guys who can average 2 steals and blocks a game while getting rebounds and covering both perimeter and post players. Covington has no problem getting his shot up anywhere on the court, possessing a good crossover and the balance to rise and shoot off the dribble. He is a very smooth shooter who can hit the mid-range jumper and come off screens to hit 3s. He also can drive and finish at the hoop.

"Granger is a team player, he's extremely competitive and unselfish and only cares about one thing, and that's winning games. He had numerous opportunities to pad his stats and show off for the many NBA scouts who have made the trip to Albuquerque this year, but has shown absolutely no interest in doing so. He has a good court demeanor and plays the game calm, but very confident. In terms of character everyone agrees that Granger is the type of player and person an NBA team can feel comfortable investing money in. He's very smart on and off the court. Granger does not take many bad shots, which is especially impressive if you consider that his team usually needs him to score in bundles to win. Most star players who play for smaller schools don't shoot a great percentage from the field, but Granger is sitting at a very solid 53% on the year."

 Covington has been able to lead Tennessee State to their first winning season since 1995-96 and their first 20 win season in 20 years. If it wasn't for Murray State's big season, they would have been dancing in March. Covington has been a big part in turning around an abysmal program. He has definitely proven he is a winner. In terms of unselfishness, that fits Covington as well. In fact, it would be nice if he was more aggressive. He doesn't force anything or show off to scouts either. In the three games against Murray State, which were the most attended by NBA personnel, Covington shot above 50% in each of them. He always takes good shots and plays with a similar demeanor as Granger. As a fellow star player at a small school, Covington joins Granger on the rare list of players that shoot a good percentage from the field - shooting 53% as well. How about that?

"He is a very good passer with nice court vision and a knack for putting the ball exactly where his teammates like it, especially when it comes to feeding the post. He prefers to make the simple pass, but can also throw up good lob passes for the alleyoop dunk. At times he can be a little too unselfish even, making the extra pass when his team would clearly benefit from him trying to use his skills to take over the game. This is a borderline strength/weakness on the NBA level, though, especially considering what his role on the floor will be."

Here I would say there is a bit of a discrepancy. Covington's passing isn't anything Id write home about. He's a solid passer, but from what Ive seen, not to the extend that DraftExpress described Granger. His unselfishness can be a positive in the same way Granger's is in the NBA, though. Makes him a good complimentary wing.

"Defensively, his team plays a lot of zone, but he shows excellent potential in this area in the rare opportunity he gets to guard the other team's star player. New Mexico wisely saves his energy for the offensive end where they need him more, and therefore can not afford to get in foul trouble either. When he does get to play the type of tough man to man defense he seems to enjoy, though, he really shines. His combination of strength, length, athletic ability, intensity, determination and excellent footwork give him the potential to be a very good defender on the NBA level once he is fully unleashed. These same skills along with his good hands and the ability to elevate quickly off the floor also make him a very good rebounder as well, pulling down nine rebounds or more 17 times so far this season. He is also a terrific shotblocker on the college level thanks to his wingspan and excellent leaping ability, but also has very nice timing to really intimidate and alter shots at the rim. He rotates well and possesses a solid understanding of where to place himself in a zone defense, while also showing good leadership skills in directing his teammates on this side of the floor. He anticipates well and knows how to get in the passing lanes, coming up with many steals and igniting the fast break."

Covington faces the same problem of playing a lot of zone, but at times in big games, such as against Murray State, he was the guy they trusted to cover Isaiah Canaan. He definitely has a good feel on the defensive end and makes a lot of plays happen and his versatility is never a negative. He's a great college defender who should be a fine perimeter defender in the NBA. While Granger was raved about in this section defensively, he never became an elite defender so I would say they are in the same wavelength here. Granger's physical tools are slightly better, but its pretty close across the board.

"Offensively, he has a wide variety of skills he can use to score, although none of them can be considered too polished right now. He likes to use his strength and footwork to back his man down towards the basket, finishing in a variety of ways (spin moves, around the hoop thanks to his wingspan. He can put the ball on the floor and take the ball strong to the basket, finishing with contact if necessary. His range has improved dramatically over the years, a testament to his work ethic, going from hitting 9 threes in his first two seasons at a 24% clip to shooting 44% from behind the arc on over three attempts per game. He has very good mechanics and a high release on his jump shot. He is also pretty solid from the line at 74% and possesses a decent mid-range game."

This is where Covington's more perimeter oriented play in college helps him out. While Granger had the advantage in the post, Covington has had more time to adjust to playing small forward. There has never been a question about Covington's shot, as he is an excellent shooter, especially with his feet set. He is very smooth running around screens and has a quick trigger. Granger's high release is true for Covington as well. For Granger, he quickly turned into this kind of player when he went to the NBA, so while Covington seemingly had the edge in college, I think he'd be happy being able to do the things Granger can do shooting wise in the NBA. And with his range and ability to get his shot off, he should have no problem being a threat from deep. From the free throw line, Covington was slightly better but failed to get to the line as much.

In terms of taking the ball to the hoop, Covington has shown that ability consistently although there are some questions. He is comfortable with taking the ball to the rim, but lacks the ball handling abilities to fully take advantage of it. Right now, he has the confidence and picks his spots well, but improvement is a must. With his size and mid-range game it doesn't need to be great, he just gets the ball stripped to much at this point. He also needs to work on keeping the ball higher and more protected when driving. His left hand isn't far behind his right hand though, as he had no reservations driving either direction.

 Granger's two main weaknesses revolved around his inexperience on the perimeter -

Most of Granger's weaknesses stem from the fact that he was played in the post for most of his collegiate career. His main one is his ball-handling, which will need serious work for him to become a shot-creating threat in the NBA. His left hand is particularly weak, as most everything of what he does off the dribble tends to be with his right. This hurts his slashing ability, as his first step isn't lightning quick as it is.

Granger's perimeter shooting has always been a big concern, but he has worked extremely hard to improve his range and become more consistent in this area. He didn't take a large amount of 3 pointers this year (averaging about 1.5 makes per game) so he will likely have to show that his jump shot is solid in workouts, especially when it comes to shooting off the dribble."

We've touched on these subjects already, but Covington's first step isn't great either. Both did cover some ground on their steps though and could bait the defender with jab steps and the threat of the jumper. Covington may actually have had a better left hand than Granger at this point in time.

Granger became the shooting type and thats where I expect Covington to follow in Granger's footsteps. They took slightly different paths in college as Granger was forced into the post more, but I believe their skillsets ultimately could wind up the same. As you can see in the two pictures, both have a little lean on their jumpers that make it impossible to contest. Being able to get your shot off whenever while being a very high percentage shooter is a recipe for success. Especially when you can fill the stat sheet in other categories as well and play unselfish basketball.

Two small school guys, both wearing number 33, and both were heavily slept on following their junior seasons. I am a firm believer that Covington could surge into the first round like Granger and become a top 20 pick. Becoming an all-star player is a bigger limb to walk out on, but if Covington has a Granger-esque work ethic it is plausible. Either way, Covington is way underrated right now. He is possibly the best senior in the nation.