2013 Shooting Guard Prospects By The Numbers + Rankings

% of Shots at the Rim

BJ Young - 46%

Archie Goodwin - 45%

Jamaal Franklin - 29%

Michael Snaer - 25%

Reggie Bullock - 23%

Tim Hardaway Jr - 21%

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - 21%

Allen Crabbe - 19%

Tony Snell - 18%

Brandon Paul - 18%

FG% at the Rim

Tim Hardaway Jr - 71%

Allen Crabbe - 71%

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - 70%

BJ Young - 69%

Reggie Bullock - 68%

Archie Goodwin - 65%

Brandon Paul - 64%

Michael Snaer - 62%

Jamaal Franklin - 61%

Tony Snell - 53%

% Assisted at the Rim

Reggie Bullock - 56%

Jamaal Franklin - 54%

Tim Hardaway Jr - 48%

Allen Crabbe - 45%

Tony Snell - 43%

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - 39%

BJ Young - 35%

Archie Goodwin - 29%

Michael Snaer - 28%

Brandon Paul - 24%

Analysis: These numbers are very disappointing for a guy like Tony Snell. Even though he will be asked to be a 3 and D guy at the next level, his strength and toughness is a concern. His play at the rim isn't encouraging in that regard. His biggest competition as a 3 and D guy, Reggie Bullock, posted respectable numbers here even though he may be the worse of the bunch in terms of driving all the way to the rim.

For the non-shooters of the group - Archie Goodwin and BJ Young - they both were unsurprisingly at the top of the first category. Their games right now revolve around getting to the rim and they have a great natural ability at doing it. They both create a lot of their shots at the rim and finish at a very solid rate when you factor in how much of these drives they are creating through traffic. Game film backs up their ability to get to the rim and I believe they might be the two best natural slashers in the draft. The rest of their game is what holds them back right now.

Michael Snaer's numbers look similar to Jamaal Franklin's, although Franklin has a lot more of his buckets at the rim assisted. Snaer's splits look more like a slasher than a shooter, even though he is a solid jump shooter. It shows how much of a role change Snaer was forced to play this season. He was asked to be a creator and slasher with the ball in his hands and that dropped his overall FG%. He continues to be one of the most underrated players in this draft and I don't believe there is a great gap between him and Franklin. As of now, it looks like Franklin will cost you a first round pick while Snaer may slip to the end of the second round.

For an athletic guy, Brandon Paul didn't get to the rim much nor did he end up on the receiving end of a lot of assists. He's a guy who needs to ball in his hands to be effective and likes to settle for jumpshots. For a streaky shooter who shot less than 33% from 3-pt range these last 2 years, thats not very good.

Hardaway Jr, Crabbe, and Caldwell-Pope all did fairly well in this area which holds true to the belief that they are currently the three most well rounded SGs in the group.

% of Shots 2-pt Jumpers

Allen Crabbe - 43%

Archie Goodwin - 37%

Tim Hardaway Jr - 36%

Jamaal Franklin - 35%

Tony Snell - 34%

Michael Snaer - 31%

Brandon Paul - 30%

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - 26%

BJ Young - 25%

Reggie Bullock - 20%

FG% on 2-pt Jumpers

Allen Crabbe - 45%

Tony Snell - 43%

Reggie Bullock - 38%

Brandon Paul - 38%

Jamaal Franklin - 37%

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - 36%

Tim Hardaway Jr - 35%

Michael Snaer - 31%

Archie Goodwin - 27%

BJ Young - 25%

% of Assisted 2-pt Jumpers

Tony Snell - 52%

Reggie Bullock - 46%

Allen Crabbe - 44%

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - 41%

Tim Hardaway Jr - 28%

Jamaal Franklin - 26%

Archie Goodwin - 20%

BJ Young - 20%

Michael Snaer - 6%

Brandon Paul - 6%

Once again, Archie Goodwin and BJ Young are on a different playing field than the rest. They are both just so raw as shooters and decision makers that even with all their talent, they will need a few years in the D-League before contributing. While they both have intriguing potential, its real hard to justify considering picking them in the first round. The second round, where there is no risk, is perfectly fair game to take them over other prospects however.

The biggest standout in this area is Allen Crabbe, who I believe is the best overall player in this bunch. Not only does he shoot the highest percentage of his shots from the mid-range area, he also makes the highest percentage. In the NBA, that will only be magnified more.

Brandon Paul and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are both guys that did OK in this category, but their mid-range game is comprised of a lot of long 2-pt pull up jumpshots. There isn't a whole lot of savvyness to their play inside the arc.

Hardaway Jr and Franklin both take a good amount of their shots in the mid-range area and they create a lot of them as well. These two guys play like veterans inside the arc and have a knack for throwing opponents off balance. Franklin scores by getting to the line, while Hardaway has more of a finesse game working to his advantage.

Snell and Bullock had the highest percentage of their jumpers assisted, which goes right along with the kind of players they are. Don't look for them to create many of their own shots, although Snell has more potential in this area.

Snaer's mid-range game has always been poor, which is surprising given his skills and feel for the game. The fact that a player who generally should be an off guard only had 6% of his mid-range shots assisted, though again speaks for how tough of a role he was put in this year.

% of Shots 3-pters

Reggie Bullock - 58%

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - 52%

Brandon Paul - 52%

Tony Snell - 48%

Michael Snaer - 45%

Tim Hardaway Jr - 43%

Allen Crabbe - 38%

Jamaal Franklin - 37%

BJ Young - 28%

Archie Goodwin - 18%

3-pt FG%

Reggie Bullock - 43%

Tony Snell - 39%

Tim Hardaway Jr - 38%

Michael Snaer - 38%

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - 37%

Allen Crabbe - 34%

Brandon Paul - 33%

Archie Goodwin - 27%

Jamaal Franklin - 26%

BJ Young - 24%

% of Assisted 3-pters

Reggie Bullock - 94%

Tim Hardaway Jr - 90%

Allen Crabbe - 88%

Tony Snell - 85%

BJ Young - 76%

Archie Goodwin - 71%

Michael Snaer - 67%

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - 61%

Jamaal Franklin - 57%

Brandon Paul - 57%

By now I dont think I need to point out the differences between Goodwin/Young and the rest of the group, but at least Goodwin kept his 3-pt shots to a minimum. Young, however, took way too many threes.

You can say the same thing for Franklin, who took about the same percentage of 3s are Allen Crabbe. Thats just a lot of bad shots by Franklin and its not like he was the only offensive option on his team. His team was able to create good looks when they got into their offense.

You especially don't want to see Franklin creating so many of those shots - his amount of assisted jumpers tied Paul for the lowest. One thing you can notice is that Paul, Franklin, and Snaer all shot worse from three this year than in previous seasons. That appears to be because they took a lot of low percentage shots. I think all three are better shooters than their numbers this year show.

Caldwell-Pope had to create a lot of his jumpers as well, but it was in a little different way. KCP came off screens a lot and took one or two dribbles which took away assists, but it still doesn't show that he is able to create his own 3-pt shot. For the difficulty level and the amount of shots he took however, he did shoot a very respectable percentage.

Bullock and Snell both did a lot of what they will be doing in the pros in college. They shot a lot from deep, hit a lot, and didn't create much. They are spot up shooters and seem to be pretty good in that role.

Its amazing how much better Hardaway Jr has gotten throughout his career as a spot up shooter. He's even gotten better throughout the season as he shot 40% in conference play (last year in Big Ten play he shot 26%).

Crabbe only ranks as a middle of the road scorer, but its impressive how much his game has involved. Last year 51% of his shots were from beyond the arc. This season its at a modest 38%. Im not worried about his shooting at all - he always been a shooter and seemed to just suffer from fatigue at the end of the year. Im actually more encouraged by his numbers because he showed the ability to adapt and has developed a complete offensive repertoire now.

SG Rankings

1. Ben McLemore (top 5)

2. Victor Oladipo (top 10)

3. Allen Crabbe (late lottery to mid first)

4. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (mid to late first)

5. Reggie Bullock (late first)

6. Jamaal Franklin (late first to early second)

7. Tim Hardaway (late first to early second)

8. Tony Snell (late first to early second)

9. Michael Snaer (early to mid second)

10. Brandon Paul (mid to late second)

The first 5 in my rankings are pretty firmly set in that order. Im not a huge fan of KCP, but he has too much potential to put him below the rest of the players who project as role players. Of the role guys, Bullock is my favorite and I believe he would be perfect on a playoff team picking towards the end of the first round.

The guys ranked 6-8 are all fairly equal in my book and I could flop opinions on them depending on the day. But they are all different kind of players and it really just depends on the system fit. 

I left out Archie Goodwin, BJ Young, and Ricky Ledo from my list for a reason. They are so far away from contributing, I'm not sure if any of them are worth a first round pick. They will all likely be at the end of their first contract before they actually start seeing some of their potential. Its also hard to rank these guys with the rest because they are kind of on a different playing field. If they first 5 guys are off the board and we are in the second round, I think they are all fair game to be picked above the guys 6-8 on the list. They are a big risk, but in the second round, there really isn't much downside. As for which of the three I would prefer to role the dice on - Archie Goodwin would be my target. Ledo may have the most potential, but he's a huge unknown.

The Case for Otto Porter

Otto Porter took the road less traveled to Georgetown, by choosing not to participate in AAU basketball during the summers. Instead, Porter played pickup games with his uncles and dad. He got tougher and learned how to play the game against grown men. Porter didn't spend his summer traveling and competing for a higher spot on recruiting rankings - he spent it honing his skills in his small town in Missouri.

He still got noticed by plenty of colleges and chose to play in the nation's capital for the Hoyas. He went to a school that emphasizes team play, passing, and versatility. It proved to be a perfect fit for his style. He's established a reputation as one of the safest draft picks in his class and an upper end role player. But is that all he can be? Most seem to cut off his potential at just being a good starter in the league - the next Tayshaun Prince has been a popular comparison.

Personally, I think Porter's potential is being overlooked. A lot of it has to do with his prep and college situations. He never played in a open system that has allowed him to showcase his skills. Thats what AAU or less structured offenses like Georgetown are for. Georgetown is famous for its slowed down tempo and team play - and has done a good job of hiding talented players in the past. Georgetown was a good fit for Porter in terms of style, but it did hide his potential.

The system at Georgetown did the same with Greg Monroe and even Roy Hibbert in the past. Coming out, they were viewed as solid pros that lacked aggressiveness and athleticism. It proved to be more of a system thing as both have greatly overachieved their draft stock since entering the NBA. Right now, Otto Porter is dealing with the same questions as they were coming out. With Monroe, scouts were able to come around to him having more potential than shown at Georgetown because they were able to look back into his AAU career. With Hibbert, they didn't have that same luxury because he was extremely raw coming out of high school. And for Porter, he didn't even play AAU.

Like Greg Monroe, Otto Porter also lost in the round of 64 in the NCAA tournament. Did that have any implications on Monroe's career? No, because Georgetown's offense isn't an offense that allows you to take over and dominate a game through scoring. Its why they consistently struggle in the NCAA tournament and it has nothing to do with the players - moreso the system.

If you go back and look at game film, there are very little holes in Porter's game - if any. And most will admit that he has a very good mid-range game, is an excellent passer, handles the ball well, and can finish at the rim.

The one major knock on his skillset is his ability to shoot 3-pters. But I already made a case why I dont believe that is legitimate previously:

A lot of people think Otto Porter's shooting is a fluke because only shot 22% from 3-pt range his freshman season. While that is reasonable, people are missing how great Porter was shooting mid-range jumpers his first season. Porter didn't play AAU and the 3-pt ball wasn't stressed to him as much as most kids. Instead, shooting mechanics were a priority and his are very consistent. According to hoop-math.com, Porter shot an outstanding 51% on 2-pt jumpers last season. This season he worked to extend his range back a few feet which resulted him him taking twice as many threes while making 42.2% of them. Porter will have to adjust even farther to the NBA line, but make no mistake that he can shoot the ball. His situation from year one to two is a lot like a young power hitter who didn't hit a lot of homers his first season, but had a lot of doubles. You know the power is there, it was just shown in a different way.

So even with all the questions answered about his skillset, there are still questions about his potential. No, he isn't an elite athlete but he has skills that elite athletes will never be able to obtain. He has a feel for the game that isn't common. And he has plenty of size and length to make up for his "average" athleticism.

I don't even think Porter is that bad of an athlete. He's not a one on one player who will over dribble and attempt to beat you with his quickness. But thats not always a good thing either. Porter beats you in ways you want your players to beat you. He thinks the game. He lets the game come to him and doesn't need the ball to be effective. At the same time, there is nothing in his skillset that says he can't take over a game. He did it at Georgetown against Syracuse through his passing, but he will have freedom to be a more aggressive scorer in the NBA.

Porter may not cross guys up and create his own shots from a traditional perspective, but he had no problem getting to spots and taking guys off the dribble in college. Porter can drive with either hand and understands angles extremely well. He is able to attack the defense through drives like a point guard - he doesn't necessarily get to the rim, but knows how to draw defenses and change speeds. He doesn't force anything with the ball in his hands. And he's a great passer who can drive and kick and make skip and lead passes. His unselfishness is one of his best traits and was magnified by Georgetown's Princeton offense.

But again, don't let that make you believe he can't be a good scorer. Don't make the same mistake scouts made with previous Georgetown players. I'm still looking for a reason why he won't be able to score in the NBA and can't find one.

He's certainly creative and crafty enough to score. Its no secret that Porter is crafty, but imagine him in an offense that allows him to show that. Porter can do many things with the ball, changes directions way too well for a man of his size, and really showed off this ability in transition. You want to see what Porter is capable of? Watch him at Georgetown in transition plays. He had a knack for getting fouled, finding a teammate on the run with a lead pass, crossing someone on the move, or making an acrobatic finish. His body control in these situations is amazing.

With his body control, Porter is able to be a good finisher. No, he isn't the next LeBron James or even Paul George when it comes to finishing at the rim. You won't see him throwing down many powerful dunks at the next level. But he has very good touch and finishes well with either hand. He is also very underrated when it comes to toughness and strength. He has a frame that could stand to add weight, but he is one of the toughest players in the draft. He loves playing inside and boxes out/crashes the offensive glass at all opportunities.

The best part of his offensive game is his mid-range game, something he showed quite often at Georgetown. He ate up the Syracuse zone twice by working the high post area. The mid-range game in college basketball is a dying breed, but Porter still managed to make it effective. Thats a testament to how good his mid-range game is. In the NBA, the mid-range game is so much more important and its scary to think what Porter could do with the much space to dissect a defense. His mid-range game is worlds ahead of most small forwards at this stage.

He is nearly impossible to cover in the mid-range area because he can beat you in multiple ways. The first is with his passing. He was the director of the offense at Georgetown and understands the game so well. He has outstanding vision in the high post, utilizes bounce passes, and can see over the defense. Finding a cutting teammate is always his first thought when getting the ball in the lane.

Porter also is a very polished jump shooter in the high post though. He has a turnaround jumper in the post, a faceup fadeaway jump shot, and a pullup jumper off the dribble. His release is quick and high. He gets his shoulders squared to the basket and gets good elevation through leg power. With his size, his shot is very hard to contest and he makes a very high percentage of these shots. Its why I trust that he can continue to shoot well from beyond the arc as well.

Porter is extremely versatile on the offensive end and understands mismatches for not only himself, but for his teammates as well. In the NBA game, his ability to see and take advantage of these mismatches will be even more valuable.

His ability to play without the ball in his hand will be valuable as well. He can play alongside a poor handling backcourt because he is such a good ball handler and passer for a 3, but he can also play next to ball dominant guys because he does a lot of his work off the ball. He will never be an isolation guy.

Porter works so hard off the ball, he usually gets to the foul line at least once a game simply because he was fouled without the ball in his hands. Whether a defender is trying to battled him in the post, keep him off the boards, or contain him on a screen Porter keeps his defender working. He knows how to come off screens, find soft spots in the defense (again, see Syracuse regular season games), cut to the rim, run the give and go, and get the ball off the rim.

Just because the most comparable player in terms of style may be Tayshaun Prince, it doesn't mean that is where Porter's upside ends. He is more advanced than Prince at this age and has a better frame. There really isnt a player better than Prince that you can compare to Porter in terms of style, but Porter has a clear advantage from a talent and upside perspective. If you compare Porter's sophomore year numbers to Prince in his senior year, Porter has the advantage (make sure you use pace adjusted numbers due to Georgetown's slow pace).

In my opinion, Porter will safely be a top 10 SF in the league. He won't surpass the top guys like LeBron, Melo, KD, Paul George, and say Andrew Wiggins but he will be right behind them. He doesn't have the ability to dominate like any of those guys, but he can help a team win more than any other small forward in the league other than that group.

Thats just him on offense. From a defense perspective, Otto Porter should be very good as well - if not better. The biggest knock on him as a defender is he lacks top notch lateral quickness to stay in front of quicker small forwards. But what he lacks in lateral quickness, he makes up for with his length and anticipation skills. I dont think we will have to worry about him being consistently beat off the dribble by many players, but for those ones that do - Porter does a great job funneling them into the teeth of the defense.

Defense these days is mainly about versatility and Porter should be able to switch on a lot of screens to cover bigger forwards and even some guards. He does a good job keeping his balance against quicker guys and recovering to contest shots. He communicates on defense, knows when it is appropriate to switch or gamble, and provides excellent help defense. He has a very high basketball IQ and it really shows on both ends of the court. Porter also rebounders very well. He boxes out and doesn't hesitate going into a crowd with stronger players.

Otto Porter has as much of a chance to be an all-star at the next level than anyone else in this draft and should be in consideration for the #1 pick. Cleveland was a big fan of Porter when they were projected to pick third in the draft, but things do change a bit at the #1 spot. Noel has to be considered heavily, but if they choose to be weary of his injuries, Porter should be the only other guy they consider. He is a perfect fit next to Kyrie Irving. If he slips past Cleveland, the Wizards will be in prime position to get him at #3 but could look to choose Anthony Bennett over him. If they do, that means Porter could slip to #5 or even farther which would make him a huge steal in this draft. 

Takeaways from the NBA Combine

The NBA Combine generates a ton of buzz every year in Chicago and the results of the combine are often overanalysed and discussed ad nauseum. NBA teams can get up in the numbers too, but the good teams understand that each number should be taken with a grain of salt. Some numbers are more relevant than others and some players' numbers are also more important.

The combine does present an opportunity to see all the draft prospects in a gym together and see who passes the eye test. Generally, its good to at least note the outliers in both directions. Rudy Gobert had measured with a 7-9 wingspan in Eurocamp previously, but seeing him against other NBA prospects in the flesh makes more of an impact. Gobert generated the most hype out of anyone these past 3 days in Chicago.

Other things to note is who consistently goes hard in drills, who looks out of shape, and shooting mechanics. Getting caught up in the number of shots a guy makes isn't a good idea, but seeing how quick and consistent a prospects stroke is worth watching. For the most part - you know that bad and the good shooters. But having them all in one gym, you can get a better idea on who has the quickest releases. If you are among the best shooters AND have a quick release, that is something noteworthy.

The athletic testing is where you have to be most careful. There are players who train specifically to do well on these tests during the few weeks prior to the event. When you look at data from previous years, there really is no pattern in terms of who succeeds and who fails. Plenty of guys have flopped in athletic testing and went on to have great NBA careers, while there have also been countless workout warriors. If you take a look at the trainers players are training with, you do notice that certain trainers produce better results than others.

For example, Cody Zeller and Victor Oladipo both killed the athletic testing and have been working with the same trainer who constantly produces results. Kenny Kadji, Shane Larkin, and Adonis Thomas all worked out with the same trainer as well and performed better than many thought they would.

This doesn't mean that their leaping ability is better than they showed in college, it just shows that they have practiced these drills. Its important to understand the different approaches prospects have coming into the combine and how it affects their testing. Nothing beats watching game film to measure a guy's athleticism.

Another thing to note is the difference between standing vertical and the maximum vertical. For a big man, more times than not, they will be jumping from a standstill position off of two feet in games. Thats why it was impressive to see Cody Zeller measure with the top standing vertical in the entire draft.

At the same time, the most important thing for big men is getting off the floor quickly - the combine doesn't measure that. While Zeller can just high (which is needed to make up for his short standing reach), he doesn't get off the ground super quick.

Rudy Gobert only produced a standing vertical of 25 inches, but with a record high standing reach, there is no reason for him to have to be able to jump 12 feet in the air. The game in the NBA is played above the rim, but not that high. As long as Gobert gets off the ground fairly quickly - and he does - his vertical is not a big deal at all. He won't need to jump higher than 25 inches to ever block a shot in the NBA.

Meanwhile, guards need to do better in the maximum vertical leap. There are two foot jumping perimeter players and then there are the guys that can fly to the rim on the run by jumping off of one foot. Victor Oladipo does that as well as anyone. Ben McLemore is another guy who excels throwing down dunks on the run.

You also have guys that test well athletically, but don't ever show that kind of athleticism in games. Their numbers are more irrelevant. Kenny Kadji comes to mind.

A guy like CJ Leslie killed the lane agility and ran the court as fast as anyone, but he doesn't know what to do with that speed in the games. Its great to run the court fast, but it is even better to run the court every possession. Leslie is a guy who takes a lot of plays off and doesn't always go at full speed - which is why you shrug off his sprint times.

Leslie's agility times should also be taken with a grain of salt. His feet more faster than his brain. While he has quick feet, all that does a lot of times is take him out of position quicker. Instincts and IQ and more important when playing defense inside - not agility. All this says about Leslie is he can run around on defense like a chicken with its head cut off - without any idea where he is suppose to be.

Shane Larkin posted a billboard day during the athletic testing and that is something that will help him out. During the measurements, he measured with a wingspan less than 6 feet. In the history of the draft, very few guys with that kind of length have ever gone in the first round. To counter that measurement, Larkin went out and dominated the drills today. So when his size is questioned, scouts can turn to his "freakish athleticism" to justify why Larkin will be different from the gang of T-Rex armed guards that have failed before him.



Anyway, the top 5 seems to be as wide open as ever after today. Noel only weighed in at 206 pounds, which is obviously extremely light for a big man. Noel said his injury has caused him to drop weight, but even at 220 pounds he still needs to add a considerable amount of weight.

Porter, Burke, and McLemore remain my next three best prospects. They all did fairly well in Chicago. At this point, I tcould make an argument for any of the four to be the first overall pick. My board is extremely fluid at the top 4 spots and Noel is no sure bet to go #1. He's the biggest risk for sure and its hard to turn down sure things like Burke and Porter.

After them, Rudy Gobert has begun to creep up in the picture. As mainly a college basketball guy, I hadn't watched Gobert near enough this year but as I watch more of him, the more I become convinced he could make a push towards the top 5. One of his biggest concerns is his weight, but he weighed more than guys like Dieng, Olynyk, Mbakwe, Withey, Zeller, and Muscala. Thats almost as big for him as his massive length. Oh yea, and Gobert is nowhere near as raw as Ajinca was. Thats not a fair comparison.

Scouting Report: Solomon Hill

Solomon Hill is a known commodity in the college basketball community at this point and has developed a reputation as a hardworker throughout his career. Even back in high school, Hill started off as an undersized mid-major forward who was working on becoming more perimeter oriented. He eventually became a top 100 recruit and landed at Arizona, where his versatility made him into one of the best players in the Pac-12.

Solomon Hill started off as the "other forward" on Arizona, playing alongside fellow class of 2009 prospect, Derrick Williams. Williams, of course, left after his sophomore year and ended up being taken as the number two overall pick in the draft.

At the time, they were fairly interchangeable on both sides of the ball between both forward spots. Williams took over the team, became a star, and overshadowed Solomon Hill in the process. Since then, Williams hasn't necessarily lived up to expectations in the NBA and has proven to be more of a fit at power forward than on the perimeter.

Hill has benefitted from staying in college and noticeably improving every year. Like Williams, Solomon Hill has great intangibles and a strong work ethic. He has transformed himself into a guy who played within 15 feet of the basket his first couple of years, to becoming strictly a perimeter player this season. He has improved both his volume and percentages each year from behind the arc as well as his assisting and A/TO ratio.

At this point in his development, Hill is definitely closer to a legit small forward prospect than a tweener. His ball handling has become a strength, he shoots the ball with his feet set very well, and he has always had good passing skills and feel for the game.

As an athlete, I have some reservations about Hill's ability to play the same game in the NBA that he currently plays in college. He doesn't possess good quickness and isn't explosive off the bounce. In college, he makes up for that with a vast array of moves. He utilizes hesitations, ball fakes, and can use a spin move in the lane while maintaining perfect balance. Hill also uses a jumpstop a lot, something you don't see a lot of players using nowadays. Hill is solid at changing directions on drives as well, but his moves aren't quick.

With these moves, Hill is able to manuever himself anywhere on the court while being under complete control. Thanks to his strength, he doesn't have to be quick to the rim. He can also put his head down and bully his way into the lane at times. He doesn't get great separation all the time, but has more than enough strength to muscle up shots in the lane. He also has an arsenal of post moves from his early career and hits the turnaround jumper with consistency. Everything Hill does with the ball is very smooth and under control, albeit a little mechanical.

In the NBA, it will get tougher to rely on those moves. Not only will it be harder for him to get by defenders and use strength, but it will be harder for him to finish in the paint. Hill doesn't have great height for a small forward and he will need to do a much better job at drawing contact. Hill only got to the line 3.5 times per game, despite driving into the lane a lot. A lot of it has to do with his ability to avoid avoid contact with pump fakes, but it also shows that he's not explosive going straight to the cup.

The good thing with Hill is, he's not a guy who needs the ball in his hands to be successful. He's also effective as a spot up shooter and moving without the basketball. He can cut to the rim and finish in traffic. He's also a fairly explosive jumper off of two feet, although he isn't elite. His explosiveness at the rim is better than his first step, lateral quickness, or ability to change directions. He's more creative and skilled than guys with similar profiles like Sam Young, Alonzo Gee, David Noel, Denham Brown, and Joey Graham.

Speaking of lateral quickness, that is another one of my concerns with him translating to the next level. Hill has been able to hang his hat on his solid defense in college, but how much of it will translate? His wingspan is only average for a small forward at 6-9.75 and he doesn't have the speed side to side to compensate for it.   Hill reminds me of Sam Young from a physical and athletic perspective, but Young has almost a 2 inch longer wingspan. I don't doubt that Hill will be a good defender, but will he be a good enough defender to overcome his average scoring output?

Overall, Hill does possess a lot of the qualities of a solid role player. With the success teams have found in drafting experienced SFs in the second round, you can be sure the Hill will hear his name called on draft night. Guys like Chandler Parsons and Jimmy Butler have shined in past weeks and should help his stock. However, Im just not convinced he is the same type of player either of those two are. He isnt as fluid or tall as Parsons (both are great passers, but Parsons passing ability has translated to the NBA because he can still see over defenses, Hill will have a tougher adjustment) or as great of a defender as Jimmy Butler. Hill needs something to hang his hat on at the next level and you can be sure he will continue to improve his game. He is a guy you can't count out and he deserves to have his name called on draft night.

The Case For Adonis Thomas

One of the quickest risers in this draft has been Glen Rice Jr. He's a guy who didn't put up very good numbers in college, took a unique route to the D-League, and saw his stock take off in the process. He was a talented player at Georgia Tech, but he just didn't stand out as much as a guy with his talents should. He wasn't always aggressive and his unselfishness was mistaken for passiveness. If he had entered the draft after he was suspended last season, Glen Rice Jr wouldn't have even gotten drafted.

That changed in the D-League where the game is much closer to the NBA. College basketball and the NBA are two completely different games, while the D-League can almost work as a way to bridge the gap between them. With a 24 second shot clock, less offensive sets, quicker pace, and a more open court things are certainly different from college. Players aren't restricted by their teams offensive sets and they are put in a position where they have to be more aggressive. Players can rely more on their physical gifts and instincts. Their versatility is also able to show more.

I already profiled Glen Rice Jr (read here), but Adonis Thomas has similar qualities that could help him be a better fit in the NBA than he was in college. Unlike Rice Jr, Thomas isn't going directly to the D-League however, and is instead choosing to jump right into the draft. And while his stock is down, a GM would be mistaken to sleep on Thomas the same way they slept on Rice Jr because of their situation in college.

The beauty of scouting is to be able to see players in different systems and project their skills to a higher level. Nobody can debate that Thomas or Rice Jr underachieved in college and I'm not trying to do that. I know all the question marks about Adonis Thomas. And a lot of them are the same questions that were brought up about Glen Rice Jr last year.

Like Glen Rice Jr, Adonis Thomas is a very good athlete who often times blended in too much in college. Everyone yearned for him to be more aggressive. When he was, you saw his ability to get all the way to the rim and finish. His ability to get to the rim is even better than Glen Rice Jr's.

Also like Glen Rice Jr, Adonis Thomas has a high basketball IQ and a good feel for the game. He moved well off the ball, made the right passes, and played within his teams offense.

Adonis Thomas is also very versatile and can score in the post, mid-range, and also step out and hit jumpers. You don't see a lot of small forwards doing that in college, but you see plenty more of it in the NBA. The NBA is all about mismatches and Thomas can take advantage of them. Same thing goes for Glen Rice Jr, who was able to show a post game once he got to the D-League.

If Adonis Thomas took the same route as Glen Rice Jr, I don't think there is any question he'd be in the discussion for a first round pick. Some may question his decision to leave Memphis with his stock at an all time low, but it was obvious that the situation at Memphis wasn't a good fit for him. Thomas stuck it out for two years, was professional and a team player throughout, and did what the team wanted him to do.

He played power forward a lot even though he will be a perimeter player at the next level. That has hurt his stock, but it should act as a testament for his willingness to do anything to help his team. Not many former top recruits would willingly play out of position. Thomas even added weight to bang down low, which in turn limited his athleticism. Since the season, he's already started to work on shedding that weight and getting back to the point where he was an elite athlete. He no longer has to focus on playing inside, although the skills he learned playing in the post will be valuable to him.

Thomas also wasn't able to focus on his perimeter shooting in college and thats something I expect him to be able to improve fairly easily with repetition. You've probably been reading this thinking that the biggest difference between Glen Rice Jr and Adonis Thomas is their shooting ability - and you'd be right.

But Thomas did shoot well in a limited number of attempts his freshman season and has always hit the mid-range jump shot well. His his stroke is consistent and his mechanics are consistent (albeit a little slow). Some of the biggest surprises in the draft the past couple of years are guys who were said to be poor shooters - such as Kawhi Leonard and Chandler Parsons - but like Thomas, both of them were asked to do a lot more things around the rim at college. Now that Thomas is able to focus on slimming down and working on his perimeter shooting, he will start to look even more like a prototypical wing prospect.

One thing that Thomas was able to hang his hat on was his defense and that should get even better as he continues to complete his transition to a full time perimeter player. He competes, has a 7 foot wingspan, good strength, a solid motor, and the versatility to be an impact player on that end of the court. He didn't always make as big as an impact as he could have for Memphis, but he will at least be a very solid defender with the potential to be great. Sticking with the comparisons to Glen Rice Jr, Thomas has the better size and frame along with the athleticism.

Adonis Thomas and Glen Rice Jr certainly aren't the same player nor do they possesses the same skill set. But they do both have similar playing styles and a feel for the game that often gets overlooked when evaluating college prospects. Smart team play turns into criticisms about their passiveness. In college, they are looked at to be stars of their teams. Neither did that. But in the NBA, they will be looked at to be another piece of the puzzle that helps you win games. Nobody will be complaining about their passiveness in the NBA nor will they be as passive. Both have great instincts and athleticism and will be able to utilize those abilities much more freely.

Adonis Thomas is currently projected by some analysts not to get drafted which is a complete oversight and overreaction to someone they once considered a lottery pick. While his lack of production warrants concern and a drop in his stock, there is still plenty of reason to believe he can be a successful NBA player. Unlike a lot of big time athletes who leave early without much production, Thomas isn't a guy with an unrealistic view of himself nor does he have any character concerns. He's actually a pretty cerebral player. And while I am not vouching that he should be a lottery pick as he was once projected, he deserves late first round consider and should definitely be off the board at the top of the second round where contracts aren't guaranteed.

For more on Adonis Thomas, check out my scouting report on him following his freshman season http://nbaprospects.blogspot.com/2012/08/scouting-report-adonis-thomas.html

Twitter: "Cody Zeller Sucks"

The best and worst part of the NCAA Tournament are all the added interested viewers. Twitter is flooded by opinions from both NBA bloggers and college basketball scribes alike - each offering their own perspective. Many times, NBA bloggers will be watching a prospect for the first time and either highly overrated or underrate the player based on one performance while the college guys remain even keel as they've seen both the highs and lows of these guys.

In the case of Cody Zeller last night, it seemed both sides rallied around a similar belief that Cody Zeller is overrated as a NBA prospect. Zeller had 6 of his shots blocks and looked overwhelmed inside by the size and athleticism of Syracuse. This was evident to anyone watching the game and didn't take an expert to come away with this inclusion. And the college writers agreed with this notion not because of this one game, but because this is something that has been evident all year. So for once, both sets of writers had the same opinion. 

This opinion is something that can't really be argued. Watch the film against teams with NBA size like Michigan State, Minnesota, or a physical frontline like Wisconsin's. Zeller has a tendency to go right into the bodies of defenders and has several of his shots blocked. His drives to the basket can become both easy to see coming and easy to predict how the play will end. When Zeller takes it into the body of defenders, a lot of times it seems like he is stuck to the floor - not necessarily because he can't jump - but because his arms are barely long enough to extend from his body. His abnormally short wingspan is a reason why many are skeptical about his ability to succeed at the next level.

The scouting report of Zeller's strengths and weaknesses are fairly simple. It doesnt take much time watching Zeller to realize what he struggles with and what he does well. Thats why last night on Twitter, seemingly everyone I followed repeated the same concerns over Zeller's ability at the next level. But scouting isn't simply about evaluating strengths and weaknesses and determining if the player played well. Anyone who watches any amount of tape on Zeller will come up with a similar scouting report and recognize the situations where he struggled.

There is another piece of the puzzle that both college basketball and NBA writers alike don't see. Scouting is about more than meets the eye, which is usually all writers look at. They'll watch the player and evaluate how he played. Simple enough, but thats something everyone can do and it doesn't separate you from the field in terms of projecting talent to the next level. A scout has to think outside the box, put himself in a players shoes, and picture him in situations different from his current one in order to determine how he will succeed.

In Zeller's current situation, he is the center of a basketball team that has no other inside presence. One of his point guards is a freshman who is learning how to pass and the other guy is a senior who rarely penetrates or makes plays at all. At power forward, there is a stretch forward who struggles against physical play but fares well in his position away from the basket. 

A large problem in Zeller's game is coaching and personnel. Zeller is asked to be the big man for Indiana and play like a center. Zeller constantly takes it to the basket and into defenders' bodies despite the mixed results. There is no questioning Zeller's skillset, but at Indiana it seems he actually plays against his strengths and puts his weaknesses on display.

Paul Flannery wrote a great article this week about Ryan McDonough, the Celtics assistant general manager and the guy who deserves the most credit for them drafting Rajon Rondo (read it here). While Rondo was dogged by both college and NBA bloggers alike for his terrible shooting and trouble in the halfcourt, McDonough saw a guy who was extremely talented but just was being misused. Thats what scouts are supposed to do. They aren't meant to strictly evaluate a guys play - they are asked to think outside the box and figure out why a guy is struggling and if he would be better in another situation. The same thing can be said for Avery Bradley and Jared Sullinger - two more guys who had obvious weaknesses, but have succeeded by being put in roles to emphasis their strengths.

Zeller is just another guy that needs to be used the right way. Right now, he's not being put in a situation that makes him look great. And for guys like McDonough, this is where their expertise separate themselves from the pundits who spend their time posting opinions on twitter.

You see, Zeller isn't a center and will never be a center. So when you talk about his short wingspan, his weakness finishing against longer, athletic players, his lack of strength, and his inability to be an intimidating defensive presence at the rim - these are all things that can be negated if he's playing a different position. A position that he is meant for - power forward.

Crean shouldn't get all the blame for misusing Zeller. A lot of it has to do with personnel. But we saw how unprepared Indiana's offense looked against Syracuse's zone - as if they didn't expect it - and we saw how Zeller was used. At some point, Zeller refusing to take jumpers and utilizing more touch around the basket has to fall on his coaching. Zeller has been playing this style all year and all Crean has to do is encourage him to shoot more, have him set more ball screens, and get him out of the low post. Pitino did it with Dieng. Its not a big adjustment. But I guess Crean feels the need to have a presence in the post and at the rim, so thats the role Zeller has been relegated to.

Think about it though. You have a guy that can shoot the ball, has the ability to face up, has good touch at the rim, can pass off the dribble better than just about any big, handles the ball well, runs the court in transition, is excellent coming off ball screens, and is a better athlete in terms of coordination than explosiveness. Nevermind his position in college, that screams NBA power forward and thats just looking at his offensive ability. Throw in his perimeter defense, his ability to rotate and defend pick and rolls, his footwork, and his lack of rim protecting skills and there is absolutely no reason to ever look at him as a center prospect. Instead, he's an ideal power forward prospect. While people saw his inability to finish inside last night, I came away satisfied with how he was able to stick with CJ Fair whenever they were matched up together.

Whether or not this effects Zeller's stock is something I can't tell you, but what I can guarantee is there is a smart GM sitting outside the top 10 that would love for Zeller to fall in their laps. 

Thursday's Sweet 16 Preview

March Madness continues tomorrow with 4 more games to decide who will advance to the Elite 8.

Marquette vs Miami (FL)

Top Prospects: Shane Larkin (59), Kenny Kadji (89), Durand Scott (90), Vander Blue (121)

Marquette remains standing after coming out on top in two of the most exciting games of the tournament - vs Butler and Davidson. Vander Blue has been beyond clutch in each of the games and has drawn a deeper focus from NBA scouts. He's basically living off the tournament hype though, and considering he's shooting below 50% and has 6 turnovers to only 2 assists in this two game stretch, this "breakout performance" isn't even that impressive. Yes he has been clutch and Blue is a guy who can make even the toughest of baskets, but he has a lot of other issues to overcome. He struggles to find and create easy shots and his efficiency has suffered. He's also not a very good shooter, only showing signs of improvement this year. And an undersized scoring two guard who can't shoot tends to have an uphill battle to climb.

Blue will continue to try to climb up that hill against Miami and will likely draw the defensive attention of Durand Scott in this one. Scott is another undersized two guard who makes some impressive plays and hits tough shots, but struggles to be efficient and make simple plays. He has proven to be an intense defender this season though, and should provide Blue some trouble with his physical tools. Those tools make Scott the more intriguing prospect as he projects better as a defender and a finisher at the rim.

Arizona vs Ohio State

Top Prospects: Shannon Scott (49), Deshaun Thomas (55), LaQuinton Ross (69), Kaleb Tarczewski (70), Brandon Ashley (74), Solomon Hill (79), Aaron Craft (85), Nick Johnson (120)

This game features a lot of young prospects who could eventually find themselves in the first round, but are currently ranked rather low in rankings because the are viewed to be at least a year away. Two of the more NBA ready prospects in this game will be Deshaun Thomas and Solomon Hill, who could end up battling head to head for much of the game.

Arizona has been playing their best basketball as of late in large part because of a shift towards a smaller lineup. Solomon Hill has been playing a lot more PF - a position he played a lot last year when he averaged almost 8 rebounds per game and shot over 50% from the field. It will be interesting to see if he will look to attack Thomas in isolation situations. Hill has a very solid all-around game and has improved an area of his game each year. This year he's been a much better slasher than in years past. Thomas is more of a one dimensional player, but is great at the one thing he does - shoot. And he shoots often and in any situation. He's played tougher this season and it will be interesting to see who has the edge when it comes to rebounding and banging inside.

LaQuinton Ross had a big game against Iowa State, but he's still got a lot to learn. His defense stops him from getting more minutes and he takes too many uncalled for jumpers. But he's certainly one to watch and may have more potential than anyone in this game.

Syracuse vs Indiana

Top Prospects: Victor Oladipo (5), Cody Zeller, (7), Michael Carter-Williams (26), CJ Fair (43), James Southerland (117), Christian Watford (124), Will Sheehey (126)

Cody Zeller will face tons of length and bodies against the zone inside which is the exact kind of situations he's struggled with this season. Zeller tends to try to go right at shotblockers - which is what you are coached to do - but he just doesn't have the strength yet to finish with the contact. Zeller could excel in another spot against the zone though and that is at the foul line. We saw what Otto Porter and Gorgui Dieng could do in this spot and Zeller is another guy with a high IQ who can hit the jumper and pass from this spot. Zeller may be more aggressive than either of them when it comes to putting the ball on the floor and he could create open looks that way too. Zeller is a very good passer off the dribble, almost like a guard.

Watching Oladipo against the zone will be interesting too. He'll be asked to operate more in the halfcourt offense and his athleticism will be taken away from him against the zone. Oladipo will need to show the ability to get himself in the right spots to score and the skillset to be able to breakdown the zone. This game will be more of a chess match than he is used to, but he's a smart player. This game gives him a chance to showcase that.

CJ Fair has had a solid tournament for Syracuse and continues to be their most consistent offensive player. His perimeter game has developed a lot this year and he's extended his range to beyond the 3-pt line. Fair has always been able to shoot though and his small sample size from deep shouldn't be a reason to dismiss his shooting ability. Another big development in his game has been his off the dribble game. Thanks to a nice floater, his mid-range game has always been solid, but now he is willing to do more than simply just take one dribble and shoot a floater. He's getting more comfortable dribbling the ball and the next step for him is to be able to make plays for others. He'll have a big opportunity as "the guy" next year if he does come back to take yet another step in his development. He's an intriguing prospect who looks like an early second rounder at the moment.

LaSalle vs Wichita State

Top Prospects: None

No top prospects in this one, but Ill take the Shockers to advance to the Elite Eight.

Scouting Report: Anthony Bennett

Entering the season, Anthony Bennett wasn't among the projected one and done lottery picks despite being ranked as a top 10 incoming freshman by every reputable recruiting service. Bennett was seen as a stretch forward type, albeit one without idea size or body type. He quickly moved up however after a strong non-conference for UNLV, vaulting himself up from a mid-late first round pick to a guy who some scouts mentioned as the possible first overall pick. Now with UNLV's season complete and his upcoming announcement of entering the draft, Bennett finds himself as a surefire lottery selection.

Anthony Bennett has a very physically mature frame for a college freshman, weighing in at 240lbs even though he stands at just 6'7''. Despite a height that leaves something to be desired, the combination of his large frame and length (7'1'' wingspan) will allow him to play the power forward spot in the NBA. He can be a very good offensive option and a matchup nightmare in the future.

Bennett's current game revolves around his jumpshot, which has always been what his game has revolved around, even dating back to his sophomore year in high school at Mountain State Academy. He shot 38% from deep this season on roughly 3 attempts per game. Believe it or not, Bennett is far from the biggest chucker on the UNLV roster and among the top 6 scorers, he takes the lowest amount of 3-pt shots. 26% of his shots come from behind the arc, while Bennett is also very efficient hitting jumpers form the mid-range area and shots near the rim. His ability to score all over the court makes his offensive potential very high.

However, Bennett has a tendency to drift around on offense. As I said, his teammates also like to shoot a lot of 3s and neither Bennett or the guards seem to grasp how an inside-out game would get them better looks from deep. Instead, Bennett rarely receives the ball when he goes in the post - although he, himself, doesn't do a good job of establishing position. And he gives up trying to get the ball down low rather quickly. Bennett is much more likely to move around aimlessly on offense looking for an opening to take a jumper. It seems that everything he does on offense is an attempt to get an open look from 15+ feet out,

Which isn't the best way to use his outstanding, physical frame. Its part of Bennett's DNA perhaps - he shies away from contact at all levels. When posting up, he doesn't put a body into his man and does a terrible job sealing off a lane for entry passes. He never tries to post up and use his strength to get better position around the basket - he's content from hoisting a jumper from whereever he is. And at the first sign of the defender resisting his attempt to get post position, Bennett abandons the plan instead of fighting back.

Its why his post game is kind of a mystery and may be somewhat irrelevant if thats the way he will continue to play in the NBA. Bennett has acknowledge the need to play more in the post in the past, but that didn't happen at UNLV. Maybe with better coaching that will change, but Bennett needs to right buttons pushed in order for him to play more aggressive. That mysterious post game does seem to have a hook shot and a strong drop step in its arsenal, but those moves are few and far between.

As I said, Bennett's idea of offense is often standing around the arc preparing himself for an opportunity to take a shot. Bennett will cut to the basket, but with little conviction. He'll set screens, but ones solely for the purpose of quickly popping out for a jumper. He rarely gets a body on the man he is screening and rarely does anything afterwards besides drift out for a potential jumper. And Bennett does have good handles, but doesn't usually put the ball on the floor in the halfcourt. And in terms of making plays, Bennett lacks patient in the post to be a facilitator even if he did attempt to hold his position. His offensive game plan is pretty plain and obvious - shoot the ball.

Even so, Bennett does have some luck crashing the offensive boards and picking up points that way as well. He is remarkably explosive for his size and abuses rims with powerful putback slams. Even without the desired effort, Bennett can be a terrific rebounder and get any ball within his range. If he boxed out and wasn't as lazy going to the rim, Bennett could be one of those undersized power forwards who put up huge rebounding numbers. He has all the tools and natural instincts.

Bennett also does well in transition - in fact, this is where he will turn heads the most. Bennett is able to travel the length of the court after a rebound, make a shifty move, and finishing with excellent body control. Those sequences along are enough to have some NBA talent evaluators ready to make him a top 5 pick. The way he can handle and change directions in transition make some believe he can play small forward, but besides from the obvious defensive problems, he doesn't show the ability to play off the dribble in the halfcourt setting. These transition plays are just a look at how talented Bennett is and what he can potentially become in the future.

There are times when Bennett would be better off finding a guard in these situations, but once he gets going, don't expect him to pass it. He can handle it, but he dribbles with his head down and is the proud owner of a 1:2 assist to turnover ratio. Among the top 20 PF prospects in this draft, Bennett ranks as the third most prolific scorer, but his 1.3 assist per 40 minutes (pace adjusted) ranks him only 14th. It is safe to say that Bennett is a lot better making plays for himself than he is for others. He can be a bit of a blackhole.

Overall though, offense is the strength of his game and the most interesting part of his game moving forward. His ability to score on all three levels of the court is something he can really build on. In a more open NBA game, Bennett could easily start putting the ball on the floor more and taking big men off the dribble - preventing a matchup nightmare. And he should be able to hit jumpers from all over the court consistently as well as provide a efficient threat on the glass. There has to be a coach out there that can get him to play more with his back to the basket and play with more fire and if he gets put in the right situation- he can be an all-star scorer.

The biggest problems with Bennett's game, however, center around his performance defensively. Bennett has the same problem with contact on this end of the floor as he does on the offensive end, which makes it really hard for him to be a good post defender. He doesn't like to fight back against an aggressor for post position and struggles figure out which shoulder he should position himself on. His size makes it easy for him to shoot over and when he gives up post position without a fight, thats a terrible combination.

Its his understanding of defense that presents more concerns though. These are things that are correctable by a good coach, but its a red flag against his basketball IQ that he would even need to be told these things. Bennett is awful defending ball screens. Any capable pick and pop player can get wide open jumpshots time and time again against him. Bennett's problem, aside from laziness, is he "hedges" the screen on the side that his man is not on, thus creating a very big gap for him to close out on. And with his laziness, Bennett never has any shot at getting back in position before the shot is made.

Bennett doesn't really hedge on these screens though as much as he just stands stationary. He does the same thing with screens off the ball, resulting in plenty of buckets that can be traced back to his lack of help. In the NBA game with plenty of set plays and attacking mismatches, Bennett will be an easy target to attack.

Bennett also tends to be less than anxious to block shots from the helpside, preferring to be stationary in these situations as well. He'd rather get himself in position to rebound, even if there is no shot at a rebound when the offensive player gets a wide open lay-up. Somehow, Bennett still gets over a block per game which is a testament to his natural gifts and timing. His lack of gambling on defensive is also why he is a better defensive rebounder than offensive, despite the fact that he rarely blocks out with any force.

His laziness is another reason why you won't see him ever being an effective SF. There is no way Bennett will ever be able to chase his man through a obstacle of ball screens and close out to defend shots. That dream is already over. Bennett is a power forward at the next level on all accounts.

Undersized power forwards have enough time defending as it is, but an unmotivated one with a bad understanding of positioning is even worse. Its a recipe for a season long stint on the bench or a spot playing for one of the worst teams in the league.

In the end, a lot of Bennett's problem are correctable and coaches will certainly be willing to work with a player of his talent. He just recently turned 20 and is older than most freshman and will announce his intentions to enter the draft this week. Bennett played on a very talented UNLV team, but both his and his teams struggles in the nuances of the game kept them from reaching their potential. Perhaps all Bennett needs is a better coach to fix these problems which is why the situation Bennett ends up in at the next level could make all the difference. At this point, the lottery remains very weak and there is no doubt that Bennett should be among the top 14 picks. The talks of him going number one overall have faded though, and I don't even think he is worth a top 5 selection. Any pick after that though, and his reward should outweigh the risk.

2013 1st Round Mock Draft

1. Charlotte Bobcats - FR Nerlens Noel, F/C, Kentucky
2. Orlando Magic - FR Marcus Smart, G, Oklahoma State
3. Washington Wizards - SO Otto Porter, SF, Georgetown
4. Phoenix Suns - FR Ben McLemore, SG, Kansas
5. New Orleans Hornets - JR Victor Oladipo, G/F, Indiana
6. Detroit Pistons - SO Trey Burke, PG, Michigan
7. Cleveland Cavaliers - SO Cody Zeller, PF, Indiana
8. Sacramento Kings - FR Anthony Bennett, PF, UNLV
9. Minnesota Timberwolves - FR Shabazz Muhammad, G/F, UCLA
10. Philadelphia 76ers - SR CJ McCollum, G, Lehigh
11. Oklahoma City Thunder - 1992 Rudy Gobert, F/C, Cholet
12. Portland Trailblazers - SR Mason Plumlee, F/C, Duke
13. Dallas Mavericks - FR Glenn Robinson III, SF, Michigan
14. Utah Jazz - SO Michael Carter-Williams, G, Syracuse
15. Milwaukee Bucks - FR Alex Poythress, F, Kentucky
16. Cleveland Cavaliers - JR Kelly Olynyk, F/C, Gonzaga
17. Atlanta Hawks - SO Alex Len, C, Maryland
18. Chicago Bulls - FR Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG, Georgia
19. Boston Celtics - FR Isaiah Austin, PF, Baylor
20. Atlanta Hawks - 1994 Giannis Adetokunbo, SF, Filathlitikios
21. Utah Jazz - JR Jamaal Franklin, G/F, San Diego State
22. Brooklyn Nets - 1993 Sergey Karasev, SF, Triumph Moscow
23. New York Knicks - JR Allen Crabbe, SG, California
24. Indiana Pacers - FR Archie Goodwin, SG, Kentucky
25. Denver Nuggets - SO Tony Mitchell, F, North Texas
26. Los Angeles Clippers - JR Reggie Bullock, G/F, North Carolina
27. Minnesota Timberwolves - SR Jeff Withey, C, Kansas
28. Oklahoma City Thunder - JR Gorgui Dieng, C, Louisville
29. San Antonio Spurs - 1994 Dario Saric, F, Cibona Zagreb
30. Phoenix Suns - FR Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Kentucky

Round of 64 Lottery Recap - They Are Who We Thought They Were

The Round of 64, or as I'd rather call it - round one - of the NCAA Tournament is officially over. For many NBA fans, this is the time that they turn to college basketball to start evaluating future pros. For guys like me and the NBA scouts out there, this is just a small piece of the puzzle. Nothing in the past 2 days has changed any prospects stock in much of any way. Instead, its just another chance to watch prospects and see the same things we've been seeing all year. And while there are some things the casual observers have seen that are true - say McLemore or Porter disappearing when their teams needed them, Anthony Bennett's aversion to defense, Shabazz just simply not looking that great, or Marcus Smart struggling to get by defenders - these are things that have been reoccurring themes all season long.

But at the same time, these things are things that I like to point out while watching games to the rest of the Twitter world who may be watching these prospect for the first time. Just key sticking points to continue to drive home, while at the same time hoping to be proven wrong. The tournament is just another - bigger - stage that allows prospect a chance to answer questions. A chance for some of the top guys to make everyone feel better about the 2013 lottery.

Its why I wanted to see Marcus Smart play against Oregon. It gave him another chance to show he could handle small, quick, pesky guard play. Instead, he struggled to play at his tempo and Oklahoma State ended up being upset. Smart had a good game statistically, but he did nothing to show he is a point guard. Smart was forced to give up the ball early in possessions and made most of his plays receiving the ball after curling around a ball screen. He worked well as part of the offense, but he wasn't able to handle the pressure and make plays at the top of the arc. Against a team like Oregon, they will try to force you to speed up and play at their tempo and they were able to speed Oklahoma State up because Smart wasn't able to be effective with the ball in his hands.

Its why I wanted to see Anthony Bennett advance to the next round to face Syracuse. I wanted to see if he would finally stop floating around the arc and decide that he would help his team if he was playing elsewhere. Against a team like Syracuse, that would require him to play near the foul line and make plays from there. However, it was another concern with Bennett that prevented them from even advancing past Cal - his defense. All year long Bennett has backed down against players who aren't afraid to try to push him around. He's also shown little understanding of help defense and has been slow getting in position when he does come from the weakside. His passiveness that Chad Ford mentioned? Thats been Anthony Bennett all season. He's always been reluctant to demand the ball in the post and take advantage of his physical tools. He's always drifted towards the outside.

Its why I wanted to see Shabazz Muhammad play without Jordan Adams in a game that many were doubting his team. It was just one more chance - one more hope - that Shabazz had something more in the tank than what he had shown to date. Something more than just being more physical and determined to score than others. I wanted to see a situation arise where he demanded the ball, sized up his open, and showed the ability to create a shot off the dribble. Even if it was a shot for himself. Yet it was more of the same for Shabazz. Those watching for the first time figured he was affected by the LA Times report - reality is, this is just what a lottery pick of the 2013 NBA Draft looks like.

Its why I wanted to see Otto Porter change the fate of Georgetown's previous tournament failures. But in the end, neither Otto Porter's style or Georgetown's offense allowed him to truly ever dominate a game scoring. And thats perfectly alright and not a surprise at all. Greg Monroe lost in the first round as well as a sophomore and still ended up going 7th overall in the draft. This game didn't change anything for Otto - he's still a top ten pick. He's not a superstar, but he'll be a helluva player for a good NBA team.

Its why I wanted to see Ben McLemore shine. Answer that question of whether or not he can be a go to NBA player. But he didn't take over because - believe it or not, he didn't suddenly develop an array of ball handling moves since the Big 12 Championship game. He's got a long way to go, but he's come a long way at the same time. It doesn't mean he can't be a superstar. It just means this kid is a freshman who is still adjusting to his new found stardom.

Its also why I wanted to see guys like Mike Muscala and Nate Wolters get their chance to steal the show. These guys had the most to gain than anyone, but in the end, its still just one game from them as well.

Mike Muscala struggled against a very good defender in Andrew Smith, something I had said would happen in previous posts. Scouts were hoping that he would advance past Butler and continue on a magical run against bigger schools where he would show that he could post the same numbers against them that he's been posting in the Patriot League all year. Instead, he's out after the first round. But still, there are 4 years worth of tape on this guy and I can tell you that he can play. He didn't earn a first round selection in March, but he certainly didn't lose much based off one performance.

Nate Wolters actually did an admirably job facing Trey Burke, especially considering the level of point guards he is used to guard. Wolters showed that he wasn't shaken by the competition and he fought to the very end. He didn't get many shots to fall and had some trouble with bigger defenders like Tim Hardaway Jr and Glenn Robinson III, but who wouldn't? What Wolters did remind scouts is that his IQ will always be great no matter what the competition is like and he used that IQ to overcome what he lacked in athleticism. He did a fine job helping contain Trey Burke by keeping him in front of him and forcing Burke to drive where Wolters knew he had help defenders. Wolters also was still able to set up shots for teammates with nice passes and even better execution. Did Wolters turn into a national hero by beating Michigan? No. But is he still very much on the radar of scouts? Of course.

I'll have another article tackling some other lesser talked about prospect after the first weekend of games is complete. I'll look at guys like DJ Stephens, Arsalan Kazemi, Allen Crabbe, Colton Iverson, Phil Pressey, Tony Snell, and plenty more.

Upside and Shabazz Muhammad - Its Not An Age Thing

Its been a wild season for Shabazz Muhammad. He started off by injuring his shoulder and missing a month of practice to begin the year. At the same time, he was the victim of a wild goose chase by the NCAA that resulted in him missing the first 3 games of the season. As expected, UCLA and him got off to a rusty start, but the rust never wore off. Both he and UCLA had flashes of greatness, but their season culminated in a Round of 64 loss tonight to Minnesota.

Thats not all that happened today, though. It also turns out that Shabazz Muhammad is a year older than he was believed to be (read the LA Times article here). Shabazz is actually a 20 year old freshman, which sounds bad, but it isn't the real concern. Ben McLemore, Kaleb Tarczewski, Semaj Christon, Jahii Carson, and Anthony Bennett are also 20 year old freshman. Jakarr Sampson will be 20 in a couple of days. Age is just a number and it is less and less relevant the older you get.

But as a high schooler, age does matter. Shabazz made a name for himself by being tabbed as a kid "physically advanced" for his age and molded his game around his strength. Unlike some of the other guys listed, Shabazz received much of his hype because of his advanced build for his age. Its never been his skillset, quickness, or shooting that has drawn an interest in Shabazz. Its been his ability to bully kids his age. Or so we thought they were his age.

This wouldn't be as much of an issue if Shabazz came out this college season and backed up his billing as the top high school recruit in the country against college players. But he didn't. And now that there is an asterisk next to him being the top recruit in his class, its even more of a reason to take this season at face value instead of making excuses for him.

After his injury and suspension, there was a timeframe everyone gave Shabazz to get up to speed. He looked a little slow and rusty and that was expected. But as the season grew on, the same Shabazz from the beginning of the year remained. There he was getting beat off the dribble time and time again and he showed little ability to handle the ball. In terms of passing or making his teammates better, there was none of that. And then there was the fit he threw when Larry Drew II made a game winning shot.

But whether he was 19 or 20, Shabazz was still going to be a top high school recruit and he still did finish second among all NCAA freshman in scoring. His strength is still impressive no matter his age. I do think the age thing makes a difference slightly in terms of his placement in the final high school class rankings, which also takes away a slight amount of hype going into this year. And as far as hype, thats what carried him through much of this season.

Lets forget about the age thing though, thats far from the most important part of the story. Everyone wants to brush off him being a year older and thats fine, sure thats not a huge deal. A good player will be a good player in the end. But its the rest of his background that deserves a second look. The character issues that the LA Times article brings up are more relevant than the age discussion.

To me, his age doesn't limit his upside at all. But the fact that he's been bred to be a NBA player his whole life does. He's had top notch training, coaching, and an environment surrounding him that was designed to help him succeed. His dad made sure he got on the best AAU teams and one of the best high school programs in the country.

He made sure that he was surrounded by players that made him look better. At Bishop Gorman, Shabazz dominated kids with his size and strength while getting plenty of looks in transition. When he went to UCLA, he joined a team with two great unselfish ball handlers, weak rebounding bigs who spread the floor, another incoming freshman who could shoot the lights out, and a coach that caters to his stars. The combination of things helped to hide Shabazz's lack of ball handling skills, outside shooting, and gave him room to operate inside and crash the boards. His coach, Ben Howland, had loss control of previous teams and would let Shabazz do whatever he wanted with no consequences.

With all the elite training he's had and all the high level games he played in high school/AAU, Shabazz has been tested for years. Its not his advanced age that makes his upside more limited, its his advanced background. Shabazz has played in more big games thanks to high school/AAU than most college juniors and seniors. And he's had the correct training, diet, and everything else that NBA players have the whole way through.

Meanwhile, you have a guy like Ben McLemore whose family struggles to put food on the table for him.

You hear questions about McLemore's ability to be a go to guy and people asking why he disappears in big games and forget he's only a freshman. And if you look at McLemore's background you will see that he wasn't a hyped up recruit since his freshman year. He didn't play on a big AAU or high school team until his final season of high school. And even then he still went to a home each night wondering if he would have food to eat. Point is, McLemore is just getting used to all the limelight which shouldn't be a surprise. He's only a freshman. But with all the AAU games and such nowadays, there are freshman that have been built up for college for years. Shabazz is one of them - McLemore is not.

Still through all of that, its been McLemore who has had the better year. McLemore is a guy who was under the radar until late in his high school career. He redshirted at Kansas as he was only a partial qualifier, improved his game even more, and is now at a point where he is a top 5 pick. He's gotten significantly better each of the past 3 or 4 years. The more and more exposure to the game and coaching he is receiving, the better he is getting. Once he gets to the NBA, he will have luxuries of training and dieting that he has never been exposed to that can take his game to an even higher level.

Then you have Shabazz who has been exposed to all of these luxuries for years. He's been considered a top player in his class since he made the varsity team at Bishop Gorman as a freshman. Yet he really hasn't made big strides as a player from year to year. He's still a poor ball handler and his shooting is just now finally starting to get better. His peers have gotten a step closer to him year after year.

I thought it was interesting how they mentioned Shabazz's older sister in the article as well, who signed an endorsement contract in tennis at age 17 and turned pro. She's now 21 and still has advanced any further. She received the same benefits that Shabazz did as a kid and because of this, she appeared to be more prepared at age 17 to turn pro than most kids are her age. But at the same time, she had already received so much professional training as a kid that there just wasn't much upside left. Her parents made sure they squeezed every ounce of talent they could get out of her already.

The same can be said for Shabazz. Just how much more does he have to grow? Just how good is he? Physically, players will continue to catch up to him. Skill-wise, players have already surpassed him. Shabazz's competitiveness, confidence, and will to score will be traits that he can fall back on though. He will always be a great competitor and he will always have a physical edge on players - just not as much as he was when he earned his reputation as the super senior high schooler in the country. 

Uncharted Territory in Lexington

Coach Calipari and Kentucky have made a habit of recruiting one and done players and quickly churning them to the NBA. Coach Cal doesn't rebuild afterwards, he just replaces them with another star studded recruiting class. For some, it may seem unfair. For others, they were fine with hating Kentucky and being happy their favorite college team has players that stick around for their senior season.

Tonight was an unexpected ending to an unexpected season. Kentucky loss to Robert Morris in the first round of the NIT. It was bad enough they were playing in the NIT to begin with, but a loss at Robert Morris is no way to go out. It certainly isn't the best way to make your final impression on NBA scouts. Following the loss, a dejected Archie Goodwin and Alex Poythress both announced their intentions of coming back next year saying "they are not ready for the NBA".

An astute observation and a correct one, as most likely their first stint in the NBA wouldn't come until they spent a year or two playing in empty D-League arenas - a far cry from the life they are currently living in Lexington.

Prospects are always emotional after a loss and often say things they don't mean, but the way Poythress and Goodwin acknowledged the fact they have plenty of work to do, it sounds like they may be back in Lexington. Don't think they aren't a 100% decided yet though - wait until they have time to get away from the media and have runners/agents in their ears. First round promises, the money, loss of playing time, the thought of going through another painful year at Kentucky - the fear of the unknown can get to you.

You see, Kentucky has a new wave of one and done players coming in next year. Goodwin and Poythress now if they stay, are not guaranteed to start next season. How many guys pondering the NBA also have to worry about coming back to school and not receiving minutes? This is the worst fear for the freshman and puts them in unprecedented territory. No they are not ready for the NBA - but will another season in Lexington help their stock if they are coming off the bench? Will they grow more from being in the D-League or under another year of Coach Cal?

The show will continue in Lexington with or without this seasons underachieving crew. The Harrison twins, James Young, Dakari Johnson, Marcus Lee, Derek Willis, and potentially Andrew Wiggins or Julius Randle make up yet another #1 Kentucky recruiting class. And this one is REALLY good, arguably the best class yet.

Coach Cal blamed lack of depth for struggles this year. Not in the sense that he didn't have enough fresh legs to keep his team from getting worn down, but because he didn't have the threat of benching one of his inconsistent freshman in order to motivate him. Coach Cal said his team was "almost hijacked" from his control.

Next year, they shouldn't have that problem. They'll go at least 9 deep with their incoming freshman plus Wiltjer, Polson, and Hood. The hope is obviously that the rest come back so former walk-ons don't have to play again and even if just a couple of guys come back - they shouldn't.

The Wildcats of 2013-14 are fine - they are early favorites to be preseason number one and have a more competitive group coming in, led by an outstanding point guard. But what does this mean for Kentucky in the future? The blueprint for their success now has a mark against it. Incoming recruits looking to go one and done may now have to wonder what will happen if players from the previous group don't make the jump to the NBA. There is a trickle down effect that this failed group of UK freshman could start.

If Goodwin and Poythress stay, someone like Aaron Harrison or James Young may not get a chance to play big minutes. They are both top 10 recruits and also potential lottery picks for 2014. Lack of playing time for them would cause them to potentially have to spend another year in college. Marcus Lee and Dakari Johnson could suffer the same fate if their plans were to leave school after one year.

This could make Kentucky even better in years to come if they don't lose everyone from year to year. It could also cause recruits to think twice about committing to be a Wildcat. Most likely, it will slightly weaken their recruiting classes but help their team overall as they slowly start to cycle through players more like a regular team. More than anything, this could give Wildcats a chance to see a little more continuity from year to year. While this season was a major letdown for the fans, there could be a silver lining in this at the end of the day.

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What do the draft stocks look like of Alex Poythress, Archie Goodwin, and Willie Cauley-Stein look like?

First of all, this article doesn't pertain to Nerlens Noel. He is on his way to a top 5 selection in June and his time in Kentucky is done.

Poythress and Goodwin have showcased lottery potential sporadically throughout the season, but it would be really hard for a lottery team to gamble on either of them at this point. Thats at least what convention wisdom says. Then again, in a draft lacking star talent, Goodwin and Poythress still offer an extremely high ceiling. That potential word for either of them is still there.

Although its crazy to think, Poythress and Goodwin would both be first round picks still in June if you ask me. Thats a reason enough for most prospects to make the jump, but Poythress and Goodwin would both need to also understand that they won't be first round picks because of what they can do now. They will spend at least a year in the D-League and even more years afterwards on the bench. But if they go back to Kentucky, they may not be risking a lot because they will still have that potential attached to their names as well as a chance to live up to that potential and become a lottery pick.

Willie Cauley-Stein also has been discussed as a first rounder, but he's even more raw than his fellow freshman and could fall into the second round. He has to come back next year.

Ryan Harrow is stuck. He already sat out a season transferring and is running out of time to make an impact. Problem is, he is the one guy that won't have a chance to start next year. Playing time will be sparse. But Harrow would go undrafted if he enters the draft. He will be 22 in April which would put him at 23 for the 2014 draft. He'll be 24 for the following draft following a senior season that he may actually have a shot to start - or may not. Harrow could choose not to enter the NBA Draft and go straight to the D-League - preserving his eligibility to enter the draft the following year (this is the route Anthony Stover and Glen Rice Jr had to go this season). Whatever he decides to do, Harrow will have a tough road ahead of him.

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Kentuckys potential 2013-14 Depth Chart?

PG - Andrew Harrison/Ryan Harrow/Jared Polson
SG - Aaron Harrison/Archie Goodwin
SF - James Young/Alex Poythress/Jon Hood
PF - Marcus Lee/Kyle Wiltjer/Derek Willis
C - Dakari Johnson/Willie Cauley-Stein

Whatever way you want to arrange who starts/comes off the bench, that is an extremely deep team. You can argue who sits or starts all day - but the point is Coach Cal will have the OPTION of who starts and sits. And that is a luxury he didn't have next season.

Ladies and gentlemen, Kentucky could be SCARY next year.

2013 NBA Mock Draft

2013 NBA Mock Draft (Updated 3/15/13)

1. Charlotte Bobcats - FR Nerlens Noel, F/C, Kentucky
2. Orlando Magic - FR Marcus Smart, PG, Oklahoma State
3. Washington Wizards - SO Otto Porter, SF, Georgetown
4. Phoenix Suns - FR Ben McLemore, SG, Kansas
5. New Orleans Hornets - SO Cody Zeller, PF, Indiana
6. Detroit Pistons - FR Shabazz Muhammad, G/F, UCLA
7. Cleveland Cavaliers - SO Victor Oladipo, G/F, Indiana
8. Sacramento Kings - FR Anthony Bennett, PF, UNLV
9. Minnesota Timberwolves - SR CJ McCollum, G, Lehigh
10. Philadelphia 76ers - FR Alex Poythress, F, Kentucky
11. Oklahoma City Thunder - 1992 Rudy Gobert, F/C, Cholet
12. Portland Trailblazers - FR Archie Goodwin, SG, Kentucky
13. Dallas Mavericks - SO Alex Len, C, Maryland
14. Utah Jazz - SO Trey Burke, PG, Michigan
15. Milwaukee Bucks - JR Kelly Olynyk, PF, Gonzaga
16. Cleveland Cavaliers - 1994 Giannis Adetokunbo, SF, Filathlitikos
17. Atlanta Hawks - SR Mason Plumlee, F/C, Duke
18. Chicago Bulls - JR Allen Crabbe, SG, California
19. Boston Celtics - JR Jamaal Franklin, G/F, San Diego State
20. Atlanta Hawks - SO Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG, Georgia
21. Utah Jazz - 1994 Dario Saric, F, Cibona Zagreb
22. Brooklyn Nets - JR Gorgui Dieng, C, Louisville
23. New York Knicks - SO Michael Carter-Williams, PG, Syracuse
24. Indiana Pacers - FR Glenn Robinson III, SF, Michigan
25. Denver Nuggets - SO BJ Young, G, Arkansas
26. Los Angeles Clippers - SO Tony Mitchell, F, North Texas
27. Minnesota Timberwolves - JR Doug McDermott, F, Creighton
28. Oklahoma City Thunder - 1994 Mouhammadou Jaiteh, F/C, Boulogne
29. San Antonio Spurs - JR Ray McCallum, PG, Detroit
30. Phoenix Suns - SR Jeff Withey, C, Kansas
31. Oklahoma City Thunder - SR Erick Green, G, Virginia Tech
32. Cleveland Cavaliers - JR Andre Roberson, F, Colorado
33. Washington Wizards - SR Mike Muscala, F/C, Bucknell
34. Phoenix Suns - 1993 Sergey Karasev, SF, Triumph Moscow
35. Philadelphia 76ers - SR Michael Snaer, SG, Florida State
36. Detroit Pistons - FR Myck Kabongo, PG, Texas
37. Cleveland Cavaliers - SR Richard Howell, PF, North Carolina State
38. Sacramento Kings - JR CJ Wilcox, SG, Washington
39. Portland Trailblazers - SO LeBryan Nash, F, Oklahoma State 
40. Philadelphia 76ers - SR Jackie Carmichael, PF, Illinois State
41. Memphis Grizzlies - 1992 Lucas Nogueira, C, Barcelona 
42. Denver Nuggets - 1992 Leo Westermann, G, Partizan Belgrade
43. Dallas Mavericks - JR CJ Leslie, PF, North Carolina State
44. Utah Jazz - JR Tim Hardaway Jr, SG, Michigan
45. Milwaukee Bucks - 1991 Nemanja Nedovic, G, Lietuvos Rytas
46. Los Angeles Lakers - SR Nate Wolters, PG, South Dakota State
47. Atlanta Hawks - 1991 Bojan Dubljevic, F/C, Valencia
48. Chicago Bulls - SR Rodney Williams, SF, Minnesota
49. Portland Trailblazers - 1991 Auguto Cesar Lima, F/C, Malaga
50. Atlanta Hawks - SR Brandon Paul, G, Illinois
51. Orlando Magic - JR Phil Pressey, PG, Missouri
52. Minnesota Timberwolves - 1991 Joffrey Lauvergne, F, Partizan Belgrade
53. Washington Wizards - JR Lorenzo Brown, PG, North Carolina State
54. Indiana Pacers - SR Trevor Mbakwe, PF, Minnesota
55. Phoenix Suns - SR Ryan Kelly, PF, Duke
56. Detroit Pistons - SR Isaiah Canaan, PG, Murray State 
57. Los Angeles Lakers - SR Erik Murphy, PF, Florida
58. Minnesota Timberwolves - FR Ricky Ledo, SG, Providence
59. San Antonio Spurs - SR Jack Cooley, PF, Notre Dame
60. Miami Heat - SR Pierre Jackson, PG, Baylor

Scouting Report: Durand Scott

Durand Scott has always been a polarizing prospect. Possessing solid athleticism and size to go along with a good skillset, Scott certainly looks the part of a pro. In high school, he beat out Lance Stephenson for the NYC high school player of the year - and it just so happens that Stephenson is one of the most comparable current NBA players to the senior guard.

Scott proved ready for college by averaging double digits his first season at Miami and getting named to the All-ACC Freshman team. Unlike Stephenson, Scott chose to stay in school and work on his game. And here we are, three years after his freshman season ended, with much of the same things to be said about Scott that could have been said then. He's in between positions on both offense and defense and hasn't shown much improvement. He's a good player, but does he make his teammates better? Can he play PG? Will he ever learn how to shoot?

One thing to take note of this year, that is different from prior years, is that he is playing for a winning team. In his freshman year, the Hurricanes went 4-12 in ACC play. Since then, they have won at least two more conference games than the year before - culminating in the ACC regular season title this season. So while Scott hasn't turned into a superstar that has led this team from the bottom - he has seen an increase in the talent around him. Among the notable players was Shane Larkin, who has officially become the face of Miami's basketball team and primary ball handler.

Larkin leads the team in both points and assists. Scott actually is third on the team in scoring, despite leading the team in the category last year and placing second the year before. One positive thing you can say about this situation is the way that Scott has handle it. There has been no sign of jealousy or discontent from the senior as he watches Larkin get all the attention. Not only has Scott lost the leading role on the team, but he has also had his point guard duties stripped from him - giving little chance at a last ditch effort to prove to NBA teams that he is a point guard.

By now though, nobody expects Scott to be an effective NBA point guard. What this season may prove to teams though is, 1) Scott is a team player who puts winning first and 2) Scott is able to play without the ball in his hands.

And furthermore, the Hurricanes have the potential to advance deep in the NCAA Tournament and even win the title, which would be great for Scott's draft stock. Even for a senior, exposure and ending your career on a high note will help your stock and leave a good final impression on decision makers minds.

In terms of Scott's playing style, he is very much a combo guard on offense that is wired to score. He has a solid frame and stands about 6'4'' tall with good length and a solid build. Scott is able to get into the lane with long strides, solid hesitation moves, and an expanding feel of how to change speeds.

His playmaking ability hasn't really advanced much since when he was labeled as a combo guard coming out of high school. He still has a tendency to dribble with his head down and pound the ball into the floor while wasting seconds on the shotclock. Scott has ability to breakdown the defense as a drive and kick guy, and does find teammates through this way from time to time, but he more often gets himself in trouble when facing help defense.

Scott is only an average finisher for a guy with this creativity and athleticism around the rim. According to hoop-math.com, he shot just 57% on shots around the rim - the lowest among all Miami regulars. This has a lot to do with his ability to deal with help defenders. For one, he has tunnel vision driving to the lane and doesn't kick it out enough when defenders begin to close in - creating a tough shot for himself. In addition, Scott shies away from contact and prefers to use acrobatics to avoid defenders and convert spectacular, yet low percentage, finishes. Scott can be a very flashy finisher in the lane, but he needs to focus more on getting to the line and finishing through contact. His frame can handle some added bulk.

Scott also would do himself good to improve his free throw shooting, which perhaps is one reason he does try to avoid contact. Scott is shooting just 72% this year at the line. Both his FT% and FTA have fallen each of the past two years as he has been asked to do less playmaking due to the presence of Shane Larkin.

In terms of any revelations of playing without the ball, Scott has done an adequate job spacing the floor and making hustle plays. But he still doesn't have much skill in moving without the basketball and his shooting ability from 3-pt range leaves a lot to be desired. Scott will hit some of the toughest jumpers possible, but fails to hit any kind of jumper with regularity. On a positive note, his mid-range game has potential to be a strength of his and he's had good success both creating and making jumpers from inside the arc.

Overall, Scott is a guy who can carry an offense at times, but is far too inconsistent to be a primary scorer. He doesn't have the size or shooting ability as a shooting guard and lacks the feel for the game to play point guard. He's a guy in between positions on offense, but does have potential to provide scoring off the bench.

Defense will have to be his ticket into the NBA, though. Scott was named to the ACC-All Defensive team today and it was much deserved. He did a fine job defending guards such as Seth Curry, Rasheed Sulaimon, Michael Snaer, and Erick Green during ACC play and showed great intensity doing so. Scott has a reasonable amount of strength and lateral quickness and has the wingspan to keep shooters within reach. He also has been a more opportunistic defender than in years past, averaging 1.6 steals a game.

I believe in Scott's ability to be a good defender, but he still is in between positions on the defensive end too. His effect on defense will be dependent on matchups as he won't be able to lockdown bigger wings or quicker point guards.

Whether Scott has an NBA or future or not will be easier to dissect once his official measurements come out. He's listed anywhere from 6'3 to 6'5 and if he has a wingspan over 6'8, that would give some merit to his defensive abilities. A strong vertical would be a good sign as well. Iman Shumpert flew up draft boards after his combine and Scott projects to be a similar player stylistically. I wouldn't dare call Scott as great of an athlete or physical speciman as Shumpert, but they share plenty of similarities (poor shooters, lack of PG skills, strong defenders, good size and athleticism, struggled on poor ACC teams when they led offense) that could make Scott a poor man's version of him.

Durand Scott is a potential 2nd round pick who will have a chance to either boost or hurt his stock in both the NCAA tournament and NBA combine. He's a mix of Lance Stephenson and Iman Shumpert. He is somewhere in the middle between them as athletes while having Stephenson's flair and Shumpert's defensive mentality. He lacks the strength of Stephenson or the athleticism of Shumpert and is in the same area overall as a point guard and shooter.