Striking While the Iron is Hot

Nobody wants to find themselves in the situation that James McAdoo is in this year - passing up a spot in the NBA's lottery for a chance to come back and lead UNC - only to see his stock plummet it the process. McAdoo's story is a bit dramatic as he could have been a lottery pick, but there are many other more common cases of guys that stay a year too late and go from a fringe first rounder to undrafted. Instead of looking at guys who most likely will declare this year, I'll look at 6 guys who are firmly sitting on the fence and could go either way. For these 6 players, McAdoo's story could lend be a cautionary tale that they should take into consideration when deciding whether to come back to school. Their stocks are looking good after strong seasons, but another season in college could exposure more of their weaknesses or just cool off the intrigue of their upside.

These guys may not be NBA ready, but they are NBA Draft ready. They can get paid and then spent a season in the D-League working on their games as opposed to a college setting where their practice time would be more limited.

ACC Conference Preview

PGs

Shane Larkin
Quinn Cook
Lorenzo Brown
Ian Miller
Erick Green
Marcus Paige

The ACC is famous for their point guard play, but this year may lack a first rounder. Lorenzo Brown has the best shot and conference play will be important for him. He will be more experienced than most of the ACC point guards and will be expected to lead NC State to a high finish in ACC play. Anything less than second place will be a disappointment.

Erick Green is the leading scorer in the country and ACC play won't stop him. He's a very talented offensive player and deserves second round looks in the draft. He is very quick and has tight handles, allowing him to play with defenders. He does a great job in the pick and roll, able to turn the corner or hit the long jumper. He is a scorer first, but is able to find teammates on kick outs. He can go left or right and his go to move may be a left handed drive finished with a soft, right-handed floater. He's a controlled driver and finishes well at the rim. In transition, he is deadly because of his speed and ability to avoid defenders. He shows good leadership and encourages teammates, but also coaches them up and expects a lot out of them.

SGs

PJ Hairston
Seth Curry
Rodney Purvis
Dexter Strickland
Durand Scott

Durand Scott has been one of my favorite players to watch this year. Despite other higher profiled players, I think either Durand Scott or Erick Green is the best guard in the ACC. Durand Scott is a tough competitor and a great defender. He has no problem breaking down defenses and finishing with creative layups. He also has added a 3-pt shot to his arsenal. The majority of Scott's shots are tough and he is actually a better shooter off the dribble and unbalanced than he is spotting up. He has done a fine job fitting in with Shane Larkin and picking his spots within the offensive flow. He isn't a guy who moves great off the ball and creates easy scoring opportunities for himself, but he is so talented in the sense that he doesn't need easy ways to score. Miami is best in the halfcourt when Larkin and Scott can breakdown defenses.

In terms of scoring, Seth Curry is right up there with Scott and Green, but isn't as athletic or as much of a playmaker. This year he has stepped up and shown the world that he is creative off the bounce and can create his own offense. I think he's always had it in him, but between trying to play point guard and sharing the ball with Austin Rivers, this is his first chance to focus on scoring the ball.

PJ Hairston is actually the best per minute scoring shooting guard in the ACC, but is only averaging 18 minutes per game. And rightfully so. He can shoot you out of a game just as well as he can shoot you into a game. He has followed up his freshman year by continuing to be a streaky scorer who settles for jumpshots. Hairston looked like he could be a nice threat heading to the rim out of college, but he tries to get to the rim and the explosion isn't prominent.

Defensively, Dexter Strickland and Rodney Purvis both get after it. Strickland's draft stock hasn't been helped this year, as he doesn't look fully recovered from his torn ACL injury. He has done a good job setting up teammates and acting as a point guard when needed. Yet his potential as a NBA point guard looks dim. With lost athleticism, Strickland is taking more jumpers inside the arc and has done a so-so job of converting. He gets nice elevation on his jumper to get shots off, but his form isn't pretty.

On the other end, the way Rodney Purvis has came on as a freshman with great defense is impressive. He also runs the court very well, leaking out in transition like a wide receiver. Offensively, he can hit the jumper and get by defenders with a nice first step. He has a floater that he can utilize as well.

SFs

Rasheed Sulaimon
Reggie Bullock
TJ Warren
Milton Jennings
Okaro White

Sulaimon is a shooting guard, but plays a lot of small forward in Duke's offense. The UNC/Duke games are always interesting for a multitude of reasons, but as a draft enthusiast, Im looking forward to see how Sulaimon fares against the older Bullock.

Milton Jennings has improved his jumper and looks comfortable out on the perimeter in his senior year. It seems like he has been around forever. He actually is pretty smooth shooting off the dribble, but his strength holds him back from being much of a force. He struggles to get where he wants to on the court and still gets pushed around.

PFs

CJ Leslie
Ryan Kelly
James Michael McAdoo
Kenny Kadji

All four of these power forwards are face up types and generally avoid contact, but they are all very different. Kelly has the best basketball IQ and a complete skillset, but is an awful rebounding big. CJ Leslie is the most physically talented, but lacks any sense of the game. James Michael McAdoo has a great feel AND athleticism, but has been extremely soft and turnover prone. And Kadji flashes some guard skills, but will be 25 by draft night!

Leslie vs McAdoo will be must watch games and could help McAdoo's stock. He will get a chance to show he can hang with an athlete like Leslie, while being the much smarter player. UNC better have someone step up at the center position though, or else McAdoo may be getting abused by Richard Howell all night instead.

Cs

Alex Len
Mason Plumlee
Richard Howell
Reggie Johnson

All four of these guys could end up getting draft this year and all are heading into conference play with their heads held high. Plumlee has injected himself into player of the year conversations, Len has been talked about as a top 5 pick, Howell has been NCSU's best player, and Johnson has lost weight and been impressive in the early going. Now with conference play, each will have a chance to prove themselves.

Len vs Plumlee will be huge - but what about Howell going up against them? Howell has the ability to shut either of them done and bully them. Howell has the most to gain heading into conference play. For Alex Len, he has the most to lose. He improved a lot over the offseason, but he still has only had one good game against NBA caliber big men - and they were playing in their first ever college game! He will be expected to continue to produce consistently against the ACC and that is no sure thing.

Top Ten Defenders

1. Michael Snaer
2. Reggie Bullock
3. Richard Howell
4. Durand Scott
5. Mason Plumlee
6. Dez White
7. Ian Miller
8. Rasheed Sulaimon
9. Reggie Johnson
10. Dexter Strickland


Top Ten Shooters

1. Scott Wood
2. Seth Curry
3. Erick Green
4. Reggie Bullock
5. Ryan Kelly
6. CJ Harris
7. PJ Hairston
8. Quinn Cook
9. Marcus Paige
10. Shane Larkin

All Freshman Team

Marcus Paige
Rodney Purvis
Rasheed Sulaimon
TJ Warren
Charles Mitchell

Seth Allen
Justin Anderson
Marcus Georges-Hunt
Robert Carter
Joel James (Over Brice Johnson because I think James is more ready for ACC play)


Top 25 NBA Prospects (young players with limited playing time omitted)

1. James Michael McAdoo
2. Rasheed Sulaimon
3. Alex Len
4. Mason Plumlee
5. Richard Howell
6. TJ Warren
7. Dez Wells
8. Michael Snaer
9. Lorenzo Brown
10. CJ Leslie
11. Marcus Paige
12. Rodney Purvis
13. Durand Scott
14. Erick Green
15. Joel James
16. Reggie Johnson
17. Ryan Kelly
18. PJ Hairston
19. Seth Curry
20. Kenny Kadji
21. Ian Miller
22. Travis McKie
23. Milton Jennings
24. Daniel Miller
25. Dexter Strickland

More Thoughts From the Weekend Games

I'm still pouring over games from the weekend, as it was jammed packed full up hoops action. I just want to get some of my thoughts down as I continue to dissect the play of certain prospects.

UNC vs UAB

- This was a typical North Carolina game where they just used their talent to run their opponent off the court. A 18 point win over UAB doesn't mean anything other than they are more talented than the Blazers. We know that. The questions about UNC are still as prominent as ever.

- One of those questions is their scoring options, which I've been harping on since the summer. But another problem is their big men. McAdoo is obviously their best big and he's not living up to expectations. Brice Johnson has been a pleasant surprise, but he can't hold his own inside. He's the type of player UNC usually has the luxury of not playing during his freshman year.

While those two may be the best bigs UNC has (which is lightyears away from the Zeller/Henson frontline of last year), they are both finesse bigs that are already getting pushed around. Once ACC play starts, this problem will be even more evident.

Joel James got the start against UAB over Desmond Hubert, but only logged 12 minutes. He fumbled a few passes and was unable to defend UAB's face up big men so he quickly got yanked. Hubert only played 7 minutes and it actually was the best 7 minutes I've seen out of him.

Thats UNC's big man rotation. A overhyped sophomore who can't handle the expectations, a skinny freshman who can't handle inside play, a big man still trying to get in shape, and Hubert who was signed purely for depth.

James will get better and he is the guy they need to step up during ACC play. He's shown flashes of brilliance at times. Johnson has the quick catch and shoot turnaround jumper down to a science, but the rest of his game is very raw. He is just way too weak to be an effective ACC player at this point.

- In the UAB game, McAdoo hit quite a few jumpers which was the most promising thing about his performance Saturday. And those jumpers weren't just the typical 10 footers he hits. He showed range out to 18 feet and had to have hit at least 4 or 5. His favorite spot seems to be on the left baseline.

Other than that, McAdoo continues to turn it over a lot - 6 times against the Blazers. Its not that McAdoo makes bad decisions or is a poor ball handler for a big man, I think its mainly because of his lack of strength. He is very soft with the ball in his hands. He gets pushed around inside leaving him off balance and vulnerable to turning it over. Its something that I realized would be a problem last year when watching him rebound. He has a solid frame but the strength and toughness (both mental and physical) isn't there yet.

- In other news, Reggie Bullock has started to put the ball on the floor to create shots. It will never be his game and we are seeing so-so results, but somebody has to step up and its good to see he's trying. Bullock will be a solid pro because of his 3-pt shooting and defense, but being able to keep the defense honest with the rest of his game could help him become a starter at the next level.

- PJ Hairston is still settling for too many jumpers. I'm not sure if injuries have limited his athleticism or lack of conditioning, but he's not as dynamic as he was supposed to be coming out of high school. He's a steaky chucker at this point.

Creighton vs St. Joe's

This game was expected to be closer, but the Blue Jays blew the doors off the Hawks early for the 80-51 win. The first half wasn't pretty for the Hawks, who watched McDermott go off for 17 in about the first ten minutes. Ronald Roberts Jr also had to sit out most of the first half with two fouls.

In the second half, St. Joe's played them much better. St. Joe's should be fine moving forward, one bad half doesn't change their promising outlook that has them favorite to win their conference.

- Some view CJ Aiken as a second round pick this year but I just don't see it. So far he is having a worse season in pretty much every way than the year before. The biggest thing though is he is so skinny. His body hasn't changed at all and his narrow shoulders aren't going to ever allow for much weight. Gregory Echenique  looked twice as wide as him and abused him inside.

Aiken is a very springy athlete and quick laterally. He gets a lot of blocks even when giving up deep post position. He is a Jarvis Varnado kind of defender - except not has long or dominant blocking shots. Aiken also seems interested in playing some small forward, but has no ball skills to speak of. Plus, he is 4-21 from behind the arc this season. I talked about Brice Johnson earlier - Aiken is Brice Johnson in two years if he doesn't gain any weight.

- St. Joe's best prospect in my opinion is actually Ronald Roberts Jr. He didn't have a very good game against Creighton - having as many TOs as points (3), but he is much more of a true post player than Aiken. He has a good feel with his back to the basket and teammates seem to like getting him the ball. They know he will get the ball back to them if he can't get a good shot and he can help them get open looks. He also shows a nice 15 foot jumper and solid footwork. He sports a chiseled frame that can handle added weight and he's been a great rebounder this season.

Roberts won't get enough work inside this season to get noticed, but he could breakout in his senior season. Roberts doesn't have a high ceiling, but he could work his way into the second round or at least a Portsmouth invite next season.

Pittsburgh vs Detroit

For awhile, it looked like Detroit would win this game. They entered the first half up by 8, but Jamie Dixon made some nice adjustments at the half to eventually win the game 74-61. Part of it was slowing down Ray McCallum Jr who had 17 first half points. His first bucket in the second half, a three, didn't come until about ten minutes into play.

- Ive seen McCallum four times this season now, and so far, he's doing his best CJ McCollom impersonation by handling the scoring for Detroit. And really, he's doing it just as good as CJ. Which makes me wonder how some people can list McCollom as a lottery pick yet have McCallum in the second round.

McCallum has proved his jumper can be just as lethal as CJ's and he is just as good at getting it off with his quick release and ankle-breaking crossover move. And with Ray, there is no question about whether he can play point guard at the next level - that is what he does. This season he is just proving he can step into the scoring role and its been a seamless transition. I'm not knocking McCollom, I'm more wondering where the love is for Ray. He is a sure fire first round pick in my opinion that should get consideration in the top 20. Maybe even higher.

- Steven Adams only played 12 minutes and scored 2 points. He had a tough matchup on Minnerath, who is a big man who likes to step out on the perimeter. Adams has gone through the process of getting his feet wet and feeling out the waters. He looked afraid of having the ball int he first few games and now is working in the paint like he actually wants to receive a pass. His 2 points came on a nice post up play where he got nice position and turned quickly over his shoulder for an easy bucket. His teammates looked to get him the ball more, but he didn't do a good job sealing off his position and keeping his defender behind him in the post. Most of the entry passes to him ended up being broken up.

There is no doubt Adams has plenty of work to do and has to become more aggressive getting the ball and using his body. This goes for rebounding too. Adams should be a beast on the boards, but his skills look very poor at this point. He doesn't react quickly, struggled to catch the ball, and doesn't hold onto the ball well when he does. He rarely rebounds outside his area.

If there is one thing Adams needs to prove he can do this season, its rebound. Scouts will be patient with the rest of the game.

Speaking of scouts, Sam Presti was on hand for the Pitt vs Detroit game. He has a reason to be looking at Adams as OKC owns Toronto's probable lottery pick. Presti is always looking for a big enforcer inside and Adams is right down his alley. Presti also had to like the scoring he saw out of McCallum and Talib Zanna's continued success. Zanna's play so far definitely warrants a second round pick.

McAdoo, Bullock combined for 35 Points in Win

The new look Tar Heels are two games into their season, winning their second game today over Florida Atlantic 80-56. There never was any question about this game as North Carolina outran them and capitalized on Florida Atlantic's poor shot selection.

Marcus Paige bounced back from a zero assists debut to dish out 6 dimes and did a nice job of looking down the court and pushing the ball ahead in transition - much like the old #5 did last year. The slender lefty has more flare, length, and quickness to his game than Marshall did and could join him in the NBA when he decides its time to leave. Right now, Paige is only listed at 159 pounds and that is holding part of his game back. He hasn't been able to handle contact well in the halfcourt so far, and went 1-8 from the floor today. His slightly high dribble combined with his frame is enough to make it tough for Paige to get drive through traffic and finish at the rim. He has a higher ceiling than Kendall Marshall but will need to put on weight in order to handle to ACC and eventually, the NBA.

Paige had two outlets at all times on the breaks in Reggie Bullock and Dexter Strickland. Both players love getting out and finishing in transition and help make UNC arguably the best transition team in the nation. Bullock had a very efficient 16 points, hardly dribbling the ball, scoring all his points spotting up from three or getting out in transition. He's proven to be a great role player but after studying Bullock over the summer, he never has shown the ability to create much offense. That is why I am concerned about UNC's halfcourt offense this year more than ever as McAdoo is the only sure option there. Strickland had a stretch in the 2nd half that made it appear he wanted to audition for the job, but really all he did was take 4 straight ill-advised shots. Strickland is much like Bullock, playing great defense and leaking out on transition. He isn't as much of a shooter and can handle the ball more, but he is certainly not a #2 scoring threat. He was definitely Carolina's best defender today and that should be the same for most of this season.

Who could step up for North Carolina? Well after Desmond Hubert got the start, Joel James took over and ended up logging more minutes. He had 11 points and 8 rebounds in 18 minutes. James got in shape over the summer and is an absolute beast inside. He is still slow making moves, but his motor, size, and touch are a combination that could make him an All-ACC performer as soon as next year. He's not the answer as a #2 scorer though this year.

Tokoto and Johnson are both nice freshman as well. Both are great athletes and Johnson was really aggressive today. Neither are to be counted on this season, though.

PJ Hairston is the guy North Carolina will need. He was a chucker last season while not being able to make a shot, but things could be different this year. His 26% 3-pt shooting shouldn't be repeated as his jumper looks great. He took 8 shots in 17 minutes today while only making 2 so he has the shooting down. He can attack the hoop and get off both 3-pt and mid-range shots off the dribble. He needs to be more selective but Hairston has the best chance of being the guy to step up.

Quick thoughts on McAdoo:

McAdoo has started off the year well, measuring up to expectations. The best part of his game is the way he moves his feet - both offensively and defensively. He always finds himself in position to take charges on the defensive end. Offensively, he does a wonderful job sliding around the paint trying to get open. He gets an unusual amount of short open jumpers because of this. He is also able to post up and keep the defender on his back not because of his strength, but because of his active feet. He moves his feet in order to keep the defender on his back and also to set up angles at the hoop. McAdoo may be settling for too many jumpers early on and I'd like to see more post touches, but so far he looks very much like a lottery pick. He's handling the role of #1 option on offense well.

McDonald All-American Game Thoughts

With the Hoop Summit, Jordan Classic, and National High School Invitation all still waiting to be played, along with a full year of college to evaluate these players, I want to avoid doing scouting reports or making any knee-jerk reactions. Here are just some of my thoughts after watching, reading, and hearing about the players.

PF Anthony Davis (Kentucky) - Wow. Anthony Davis really stole the show for the West team. While he didn't come away with MVP honors, he impressed me more than anyone else. It was great to see him in action against great competition after everything I've read. I was worried that he would be another Perry Jones and hang around the perimeter, but I was pleasantly surprised. He has some guard skills and can start the fastbreak himself, but he kept himself positioned inside and collected 14 points. He needs to get stronger to hold his own in the post and become more of a threat on the boards, but he was just 6'3'' a year and a half ago. He needs time to fill out his frame and also adjust to being a big man. Because of that, he has an incredible upside and it is very impressive how quickly he already has made tremendous strides adapting to his new body and position. His wingspan is also a huge asset and helped him block four shots. The most notable thing he did, though, was when he ended up in the stands going after a loose ball. The kid was everywhere.

PF Kyle Wiltjer (Kentucky) - Wiltjer started off his week right by winning the 3-pt contest. He was reportedly very serious in practice, taking advantage of the great opportunity offered from playing in this event. Working alongside Anthony Davis will provide huge mismatch problems for other teams and I can't wait to see how Coach Cal uses them together. Wiltjer has a great shooting touch and old school post moves - he hit a running hook shot in the game. He finished up with 11 points on 4-10 shooting from the field.

SG Bradley Beal (Florida) - Beal got off to a hot start and had a game-high 17 points (along with McAdoo). He has an excellent stroke from outside that scouts have compared to Ray Allen's. He is not just a shooter, though. He is a great competitor and went right at Austin Rivers who was at one point committed to go to Florida with him. He is a good athlete overall, with a strong frame. He can get into the lane and finish through contact and will be able to play the SG position in the NBA even though he is slightly undersized. Beal's biggest obstacle next year is getting consistent minutes - Florida also has Erving Walker, Kenny Boynton, and Mike Rosario at the guard positions - none of which have a problem hoisting shots. Hopefully Beal gets a chance because I definitely believe he can be as productive as the other guards. Patric Young didn't get any favors this year as an All-American, so we will see how Donovan divvies out playing time.

SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Georgia) - Caldwell-Pope isn't one of the most notable names at the game, but he could be a great fit for the Bulldogs if Travis Leslie and Trey Thompkins return for their senior years. Georgia's offense is designed for 3-pt shooters, and with Leslie, they haven't had a guard that can take advantage. If Caldwell-Pope gets to play next to Leslie, they can form a solid combination. Besides that though, Caldwell-Pope looks like he will be in college for a few years. He is more along the lines of a guy like Corey Stokes or Reggie Bullock who have great size and shooting, but need to work on the rest of their game.

SG Michael Carter-Williams (Syracuse) - I think this guy has a chance to be really good. He won the skills competition and showed off some great ball-handling skills in the process. His scouting report reads similarly to Jeremy Lamb, but the difference is some would question whether Carter-Williams would have the patience to let Kemba do all the work. Carter-Williams has a rep for being selfish and demanding when his inferior teammates have the ball. If he adjusts at Syracuse and allows Jardine, Waiters, and Triche to do their thing, he could be a very dangerous player. If not, he might be on the bench for most of his freshman year.

F/C Rakeem Christmas (Syracuse) - Christmas is another player heading to Syracuse with some questions about his mental makeup. I have been one of his biggest detractors since I saw him play as a freshman. I don't like his body language and he is still very raw. He has gotten by on his elite athleticism and shot blocking skills, but still has no post game to speak of. He only averaged 11 points his senior year of high school and was non-existent in this all-star game. With Fab Melo and Baye Moussa-Keita already in place, he is going to have to earn his playing time. I'm not sure he makes much of an impact his freshman season. Hopefully he matures and uses playing time as motivation.

PG Quinn Cook (Duke) - Assuming Irving leaves, Cook is going to start at point guard next year alongside Austin Rivers. Cook is an undersized guard, but is a great competitor. I saw him play while he was still at DeMatha in his junior year and he had a scorer's mentality. Over the summer, though, he got a chance to lead USA's U17 team and scored 7.5 points to go along with 7.4 assists. I'd like to see more of the playmaking ability at Duke, as he will need to create for the shooters that surround him (Curry, Rivers, and Dawkins). While Cook is clearly not the best point guard prospect in terms of the NBA, he can have a very good college career and eventually land in the league.

SF Michael Gilchrist (Kentucky) - Taking home Co-MVP honors of the all-star game was Mike Gilchrist, who had 16 points, 12 boards, and four assists. His statline is a good representation of his game - Gilchrist does everything on the court to help his team win. He truly is a valuable player and will get a chance to show off his role playing abilities on a stacked Kentucky team. He is the perfect complementary player, being compared to Scottie Pippen, with his work on the glass and defensively. He also has some of the passing ability, but he isn't an elite level athlete. He has minimal downside and should be a lottery pick when he declares.

SG PJ Hairston (North Carolina) -  Hairston had an impressive week in Chicago. He competed in both the dunk and 3-pt contest, showing skill in both areas. In the actual game, he had 15 points including a few deep threes. He is going to be a great 3-pt shooter in college, with a high release. I like him better than Bullock because I see him as a smarter player with better athleticism. He has a stronger body and can finish with a lot of power. He's a sleeper of mine for the first round next year.

PF James McAdoo (North Carolina) - McAdoo made his presence known tonight, finishing with 17 points on 8-13 shooting. Like the box score suggests, he is an efficient player with a great feel for the game. He created opportunities for him self by playing the passing lanes and forcing turnovers. He handles the ball well for a power forward, complete with a solid post game. He needs to add strength so he can get better position, but as Dave Telep said, he is one of the few in this class that can carry a college team sooner rather than later.

C Johnny O'Bryant (LSU) - It was hard not to notice O'Bryant out there. He tried to show off his offensive game, but instead showed raw ability. Like DeMarcus Cousins when he was in high school, O'Bryant doesn't take advantage of his size enough. He focuses on spin moves and making plays off the dribble. While he does have a surprisingly quick first step, he is out of control and out of his element in that situation. I like his energy, but he has to learn to use his body to become a powerful force inside. Right now he uses it poorly and had his shot blocked at least once because of it. He needs to go up strong and finish with dunks - not fadeaways!

Stay tuned tomorrow for thoughts on Plumlee, Scott, Birch, Dawson, Kabongo, Nash, Rivers, Teague, and Zeller.