The Correlation Between 2-pt% and Assist to Turnover Ratio

As I have broken down numerous college point guards this year, the same strengths and weaknesses keep coming up. One of the big things is how a guy runs the pick and roll offense. You have two ends of the spectrum here - guys who change speeds and play under control and guys who go full speed and rely on their athleticism. All of the guys are able to score in the mid-range area and pass the ball to open teammates. There isn't a guy difference there. The biggest difference comes from being able to put yourself in situations to get good shots, to get teammates open, and make smart decisions. The pick and roll game exemplifies the point guard's ability because it puts him in a situation where he can shoot, pass, drive, and also work an in-between game. You literally have countless options out of the pick and roll and its up to the offense player to be able to take advantage of them.

The problem with some guys is they don't know how to play in these sets. When they have an on ball screen, they feel the need to quickly accelerate around the corner and try to force their way into the lane. Trying to get around defenders with pure speed puts them in bad situations where they are often out of control and are forced to throw up an off-balanced shot or unpremeditated pass. I study the games of point guards who shot the ball exceptionally well from 3-pt range and had great athleticism inside, yet found that they had terrible efficiency inside the arc. Why? It all comes down to changing speeds.

If you watch Phil Pressey of Missouri and compare him to an average college point guard, you can really see a difference. Pressey understands the conceptions I am talking about. He uses hesitations, changes in direction, changes in speed, and other moves to keep the defense honest. When he gets a screen, he can dance around it, teasing the defense with his 3-pt ability while still being in attack mode. He doesn't feel the need to force things. Pressey can slip in between the two pick and roll defenders or he can slowly attack the defense while remaining under control. When Pressey gets inside the arc, it doesn't mean a shot or a pass is coming within seconds. That is because he enters the lane under complete control and with numerous options in mind. Instead of barreling into the lane and have to make quick decisions, Pressey is able to toy with the defense while sizing them up. Being able to take his time, he can make much more efficient passes to his teammates, while also getting them more open since he holds onto the ball longer. He also is able to get much more efficient shots himself since he isn't going in at full speed. Some guys have the size that they could keep bad habits and just run into the lane and fire up floaters, but Pressey has learned from an early age that he must work to find good shots.

What am I getting at?

Well first, the pick and roll is obviously incredibly important and becomes an even bigger factor in the NBA. In the NBA, you absolutely have to know how to change speeds because every player is an excellent athlete. The guys in college who rely on athleticism are going to have big adjustments to make.

So the pick and roll is valuable and what makes you a good pick and roll player is the ability to change speeds. At least, it plays a big factor. And the pick and roll effects all parts of your game. It effects your passing and efficiency.

Look at the two top assists to turnover players from last year - Kendall Marshall and Scott Machado. It is no surprise that they were great passers and smart decision makers, but did you know they were also amongst the top players in 2-pt%?

Using DraftExpress's stat page, I took a look at the 16 point guards who made their top 100 draft prospect list from this past draft. Of those 16 guys, Machado, Marshall, and Dion Waiters were in the top 4 in both 2-pt% and assist to turnover ratio. Now Waiters is a great finisher so his 2-pt% is no surprise, but Machado and Marshall have always been regarded as average finishers at best.

It all comes down to the pick and roll game and changing speeds for them. Both of them play very under control and rarely have to put of forced shots. When they go into the lane, they have multiple options inside their head. It goes along with the idea of being a triple threat and a lot of guys don't present that ability off the dribble in the lane. So Marshall and Machado both are efficient inside scorers despite not being very explosive or even particularly good shooters.

It is no surprise they are also the two best passers. It is all about leaving their options open. 2-pt% and assists to turnover ratio go hand in hand for point guards.

There are a lot of variable that explains why the numbers don't always back this up, things like how Tyshawn Taylor is such a good 2-pt shooter while having a bad assist to turnover ratio. This can be explained by the athleticism and size thing. Even without great understanding of changing speeds, some ultra talented guys like Taylor can get by in the college game with elite size and athleticism. The opposite can be used to explain why my example, Phil Pressey, is only an average 2-pt shooter. He really isn't a very good finisher in traffic at all, but if he didn't understand how to get good looks and keep the defense on their heels, his 2-pt% would be at the bottom of the league.

Court Vision: Looking into the Future with Kendall Marshall

The first time I saw Kendall Marshall was his junior year in high school. The setting - Wise High School in front of his future coach Roy Williams. He was pitted against fellow North Carolina commit, Reggie Bullock in what was a can't miss game. The game got off to a bad start for Marshall's O'Connell squad, and with 5:31 left in the third quarter they were staring at a 45-29 deficit. Sitting a row behind O'Connell's bench, I was infatuated with watching how this young kid handled himself. There was something about him that was hard to explain, but he remained calm in every huddle, while the fire was still apparent in his eyes. He was a quiet leader - a guy who was well liked and didnt need to raise his voice for respect.

Coming out of a timeout midway through the third quarter, after receiving instructions from Joe Wootten (son of Morgan Wootten), Marshall and his troops began to make a run. Marshall was in complete control of the game, much in the way you think of him now at North Carolina, making all the right passes and decisions.

When people question whether Marshall is a product of the players around him, I think back to his high school days. His team had some talent, but they weren't in the same league as Oak Hill, DeMatha, Montrose, etc. Their 6-5 post players received some low major interest, but that was it. Still, Marshall led that team to some great wins, including the game against Bullock, which they eventually won 71-64. Marshall's stat line?

11 points, 7 assists, and 5 rebounds.

He battled the taller and more athletic Bullock the whole game, holding him to 17 point on a host of shots. After the game, Wootten called Marshall's defense on Bullock "tremendous" and mentioned that he contested every shot.

You see, Marshall does a lot more offensively then what meets the eye. Assists and turnovers aren't a complete measure on point guard play. There are other ways to set up your teammates than using quickness to get into the lane and draw defenders. Marshall is living proof of that. If you didnt know that before, watching him play will force you to believe that basketball is more than skills and athleticism. That is the only way to explain Marshall's impact on the game. How exactly does he do it?

Well, being a good passing point guard is more than simply being a good passer and seeing the court.

In George Dohrmann's must-read book "Play Their Hearts Out", Demetrius Walker's high school coach scolded the star after his teammate dropped one of his passes. He yanked him from the game and asked him why he threw the pass. The pass was on target and could have been caught, but the coach made a point that Walker knew his unskilled teammate was incapable of making that kind of play. Part of being a point guard is knowing your teammates limitations and putting them in position to succeed. You can make flashy passes to make yourself look good, but it doesn't mean they are good passes. Kendall Marshall gets that.

Knowing your teammates is one thing, knowing the game of basketball is another. Without great physical tools, Marshall has to find other ways to get his teammates open looks. While being guarded, Marshall will often drive at a different defender guarding a teammate, forcing that defender to hedge over to Marshall. That creates all the opening Marshall needs to deliver a pass. In basketball, the skip pass seems to be a dying term. Used correctly like Marshall does, it can keep the defense off-balance and in constant rotation. Those are two things right there that he does as good as any other college player. Hockey assists. Quick and correct decisions. Feeding the ball into the post. If you want to define the term true point, use a guy like Marshall who knows how to play the game, not someone who uses his athleticism to get all his assists and dribbles the air out of the ball.

His offensive game is going to draw comparisons with Jason Kidd and Ricky Rubio. Kidd was an absolute stat sheet stuffer in high school. He was on a different level than Marshall athletically. Still, it is easy to see who Marshall patterns his game after.

As for Rubio, I suspect this example to be used a lot by people justifying taking him in the lottery. The both aren't athletically gifted, but are almost prodigious with their understanding of the game of basketball. Neither can shoot very well. Where Rubio has the advantage is defensively. Marshall has short arms, while Rubio sports a nice wingspan. Rubio has quick hands and generates a lot of steals. He also is faster and gets to the basketball better. If Marshall waits to declare until after Rubio has played in the NBA, I can see his success being a factor. If Rubio ends up being great, there is hope for Kendall.

Of course, Marshall has plenty of limitations which could explain how he understands the nuances of the game better than anyone else - he has no choice. He's not a good shooter. He can't jump. He has short arms. His dribble is too high at times which hurts him driving through traffic. He lacks strength. Athletically, he is like a Marcus Williams (UCONN) or Greivis Vasquez. Defense will be a struggle no matter how much effort he puts in.

These are all the things he can't do. This is what scouts will point at whenever he decides to entering the draft. It has the making of the always classic, "its not what you can't do, its what you CAN do", theorem. The debate on Marshall is going to be tough and may go on for three more years. He is such a tough prospect to judge whether or not he will be successful, it seems many draft pundits want to put it on the back burner and hope they get a few more years to evaluate.

Call me crazy, but I have faith in him.