The Case For Adonis Thomas

One of the quickest risers in this draft has been Glen Rice Jr. He's a guy who didn't put up very good numbers in college, took a unique route to the D-League, and saw his stock take off in the process. He was a talented player at Georgia Tech, but he just didn't stand out as much as a guy with his talents should. He wasn't always aggressive and his unselfishness was mistaken for passiveness. If he had entered the draft after he was suspended last season, Glen Rice Jr wouldn't have even gotten drafted.

That changed in the D-League where the game is much closer to the NBA. College basketball and the NBA are two completely different games, while the D-League can almost work as a way to bridge the gap between them. With a 24 second shot clock, less offensive sets, quicker pace, and a more open court things are certainly different from college. Players aren't restricted by their teams offensive sets and they are put in a position where they have to be more aggressive. Players can rely more on their physical gifts and instincts. Their versatility is also able to show more.

I already profiled Glen Rice Jr (read here), but Adonis Thomas has similar qualities that could help him be a better fit in the NBA than he was in college. Unlike Rice Jr, Thomas isn't going directly to the D-League however, and is instead choosing to jump right into the draft. And while his stock is down, a GM would be mistaken to sleep on Thomas the same way they slept on Rice Jr because of their situation in college.

The beauty of scouting is to be able to see players in different systems and project their skills to a higher level. Nobody can debate that Thomas or Rice Jr underachieved in college and I'm not trying to do that. I know all the question marks about Adonis Thomas. And a lot of them are the same questions that were brought up about Glen Rice Jr last year.

Like Glen Rice Jr, Adonis Thomas is a very good athlete who often times blended in too much in college. Everyone yearned for him to be more aggressive. When he was, you saw his ability to get all the way to the rim and finish. His ability to get to the rim is even better than Glen Rice Jr's.

Also like Glen Rice Jr, Adonis Thomas has a high basketball IQ and a good feel for the game. He moved well off the ball, made the right passes, and played within his teams offense.

Adonis Thomas is also very versatile and can score in the post, mid-range, and also step out and hit jumpers. You don't see a lot of small forwards doing that in college, but you see plenty more of it in the NBA. The NBA is all about mismatches and Thomas can take advantage of them. Same thing goes for Glen Rice Jr, who was able to show a post game once he got to the D-League.

If Adonis Thomas took the same route as Glen Rice Jr, I don't think there is any question he'd be in the discussion for a first round pick. Some may question his decision to leave Memphis with his stock at an all time low, but it was obvious that the situation at Memphis wasn't a good fit for him. Thomas stuck it out for two years, was professional and a team player throughout, and did what the team wanted him to do.

He played power forward a lot even though he will be a perimeter player at the next level. That has hurt his stock, but it should act as a testament for his willingness to do anything to help his team. Not many former top recruits would willingly play out of position. Thomas even added weight to bang down low, which in turn limited his athleticism. Since the season, he's already started to work on shedding that weight and getting back to the point where he was an elite athlete. He no longer has to focus on playing inside, although the skills he learned playing in the post will be valuable to him.

Thomas also wasn't able to focus on his perimeter shooting in college and thats something I expect him to be able to improve fairly easily with repetition. You've probably been reading this thinking that the biggest difference between Glen Rice Jr and Adonis Thomas is their shooting ability - and you'd be right.

But Thomas did shoot well in a limited number of attempts his freshman season and has always hit the mid-range jump shot well. His his stroke is consistent and his mechanics are consistent (albeit a little slow). Some of the biggest surprises in the draft the past couple of years are guys who were said to be poor shooters - such as Kawhi Leonard and Chandler Parsons - but like Thomas, both of them were asked to do a lot more things around the rim at college. Now that Thomas is able to focus on slimming down and working on his perimeter shooting, he will start to look even more like a prototypical wing prospect.

One thing that Thomas was able to hang his hat on was his defense and that should get even better as he continues to complete his transition to a full time perimeter player. He competes, has a 7 foot wingspan, good strength, a solid motor, and the versatility to be an impact player on that end of the court. He didn't always make as big as an impact as he could have for Memphis, but he will at least be a very solid defender with the potential to be great. Sticking with the comparisons to Glen Rice Jr, Thomas has the better size and frame along with the athleticism.

Adonis Thomas and Glen Rice Jr certainly aren't the same player nor do they possesses the same skill set. But they do both have similar playing styles and a feel for the game that often gets overlooked when evaluating college prospects. Smart team play turns into criticisms about their passiveness. In college, they are looked at to be stars of their teams. Neither did that. But in the NBA, they will be looked at to be another piece of the puzzle that helps you win games. Nobody will be complaining about their passiveness in the NBA nor will they be as passive. Both have great instincts and athleticism and will be able to utilize those abilities much more freely.

Adonis Thomas is currently projected by some analysts not to get drafted which is a complete oversight and overreaction to someone they once considered a lottery pick. While his lack of production warrants concern and a drop in his stock, there is still plenty of reason to believe he can be a successful NBA player. Unlike a lot of big time athletes who leave early without much production, Thomas isn't a guy with an unrealistic view of himself nor does he have any character concerns. He's actually a pretty cerebral player. And while I am not vouching that he should be a lottery pick as he was once projected, he deserves late first round consider and should definitely be off the board at the top of the second round where contracts aren't guaranteed.

For more on Adonis Thomas, check out my scouting report on him following his freshman season http://nbaprospects.blogspot.com/2012/08/scouting-report-adonis-thomas.html

Sleeper Alert: Tyler Honeycutt

Tyler Honeycutt ranks 24th and 25th on ESPN's and Draftexpress's big board respectively. If you ask me, he should be in the lottery discussion.

Skill, size, and athleticism. Those are three major checkpoint when looking at a prospect. Honeycutt has them all.

Note: All stats are per 40 minutes pace adjusted.

Honeycutt has been praised for his all-around game, although he is knocked because he doesn't do one thing that stands out. Keep in mind that he is only a sophomore, though, and not having a key weakness is a big deal. His shot has a ton of potential. He has a smooth, compact stroke with great elevation. He is one of my favorite players in this draft to watch shoot. He went from only taking 1.6 threes a game as a freshman to taking 5.2 this season. This improvement seems to go unnoticed as his stock has failed to rise from the beginning of the year. His stroke is effortless and NBA range is already there. He shot 36.2% from three this year and should only get better.

His passing ability also shows good signs. He actively looks to get teammates involved, which is good since he will be a complementary scorer in the NBA, but in college, he was way to passive. His tentativeness saw him hesitate on open shots and resulted in him trying to force many bad passes. He has great vision, but he tries way too hard to get his teammates involved. If he had a scorer's attitude, he could have put up some impressive numbers this year.

You can't ignore his mindset, but I would expect it to get better with age. He improved his shot last year, and at 20 years old, he should continue to get better at knowing what to do with the ball. Its not like he has a bad feel for the game - as I said, he makes plenty of good passes too and shows excellent awareness on the defense end. He is just too passive right now. His game gets compared to Tayshaun Prince and I see similar things in their character too. Like Prince, his style should end up fitting in better with NBA guys. Repetitions and familiarity will also help.

The complexity of UCLA's offense sure doesn't help either. We saw it with Russell Westbrook and Jrue Holiday - playing off the ball on the wing in Howland's offense isn't ideal. Especially for great athletes like all of them were. What makes Honeycutt's situation even worse is point guard play. Westbrook and Holiday had the luxury of playing with Collison. UCLA had no point guard this year. Honeycutt ended up second to Lazeric Jones on the team for assists and Jones only had 3.6 per game.

Honeycutt shot only 40.6% from the field this year, but it doesn't speak for the kind of player he is. In the faster pace game of the NBA, he should be able to use his athleticism to get out for some easy transition buckets. Look at Honeycutt for what he has to offer. He is the complete package of athleticism and skills. How many other guys in this draft have that?

I don't think his athleticism is appreciated enough due to his passiveness and UCLA's style. Check him out on defense if you want a real representation. He's had some LeBron James-esque chase down blocks (or Tayshaun Prince circa 2004 ECF if you will). Last year, he showed off his ability to get steals to the tune of 2.2 a game and then decided to switch his interest to blocking shots this season (2.3 a game). If you need some proof of his leaping ability, you can check out this dunk too.

Ok, so we know he has the athleticism, size, and skill set for a small forward. His mindset isn't ideal, but there aren't red flags due to it either. He sounds like a lottery pick, right?

His turnovers are his biggest problem, but if you listen to John Hollinger, it can be viewed as a good thing. History shows that young wings with high turnovers can be a positive indicator. Last year, Honeycutt ranked 5th in turnovers per possession. Two spots below him was Darius Morris, arguably the most improved player in the country. Honeycutt also has a negative pure point ratio which is a bit of an anomaly for small forwards who rack up assists. His -3.35 PPR is one of the worst among guys with similar assists numbers, but there have been successful small forwards with similar numbers. Manny Harris (his was actually above -5), Hakim Warrick, Paul George, Sonny Weems, and Dominic McGuire all had worse. Caron Butler, Marquis Daniels, Evan Turner, Klay Thompson, Marquis Blakely, Corey Brewer,  Earl Clark, Courtney Lee, and Landry Fields were all worse than -2 as well. A poor pure point ratio doesn't seem to be a bad thing at all if you look at the rest of the list. The most successful players seem to have had trouble in that area.

Workouts are coming up and Honeycutt will have a great opportunity to make a leap ahead of the late lottery to mid-first round pack. Just remember that I called his leap before it happened.