Finding a Second Round All-Star

I wanted to do a piece on potential second round picks in this draft that possess the most upside, but I decided it would be appropriate to look at previous second round steals from the past 15 years. These 5 players are the only American players to be selected in the second round who went on to play in an All-Star game at some point.

A few things you will notice about these player:

1) None of them are that elite type of athlete that one would generally associate with a high upside pick in the second round. Furthermore, none of them were freshman in college - although Rashard Lewis came out as a high schooler.

2) The majority of these guys earned their stripes as scorers. Part of this has to do with the all-star criteria. There are some other second round steals during this time period that didn't make an All-Star game primarily because scoring tends to be overvalued for such awards.

3) Everyone in this group became great shooters and most had questions about their shooting abilities entering the draft. However, none of them had bad shots coming out of college. Their jumpers were all repairable and most showed improvement during their time in college as well.

4) Pinpointing talent in the second round is only half of the battle. Second round picks become restricted free agents after two years and you can easily be placed in a tough situation of having to overpay your draft steal to retain them. The Cavs and Warriors lost their all-star caliber steals because they made their worth known to the rest of the league right away. Rashard Lewis and Michael Redd were able to stay with their teams for a longer time because they didn't play consistently their first two season.

If you have a second round steal on your hands, it may be smarter to hide them a bit until you are able to lock them up for at least a few years. These steals lose a lot of their value if you are forced to pay them 10+ million a year after they've only played two seasons. The Wizards jumped on Arenas, but never were able to take the next step with him as the centerpiece. There hasn't been a second round pick in the NBA that has proven he can be the best player on a championship worthy team, so its risky to invest a bunch of money in a  player two years after he wasn't even good enough to go in the first round.

5) Most of these guys wouldn't have been labeled as huge risk/reward picks when they entered the draft. The didn't necessarily succeed because they finally achieved their "unlimited" potential. These guys consist of combo guard tweeners, undersized power forwards, and a very typical looking shooting guard. The only guys who could have been associated with the word potential were Gilbert Arenas and Rashard Lewis.

6) Oddly enough, none of these guys were overlooked due to lack of exposure. They all went to big schools.  In fact, three of the four that went to college played in the NCAA Final Four! Only Mo Williams did not, but his team entered the NCAA tournament as a #2 seed.

7) International players are a different animal when it comes to the second round so I left them out. But when it comes to finding steals in the second round, taking a overseas player is as good of a bet as any.

Mo Williams

Draft Year: 2003
Drafted By: Utah Jazz
Pick Number : 47
Left After ___ Year: Sophomore
College: Alabama

Mo Williams left Alabama after two successful years at Alabama and was viewed as one of the best players on the board when the Utah Jazz selected him. However he lacked great athleticism or size to make up for his lack of PG skills and only shot around 30% from 3-pt range. The Jazz never reaped the benefits of their smart pick as they cut him after his rookie season. Williams then greatly improved his outside stroke and went to an all-star game primarily because he was a great spot up threat playing with LeBron James. There was reason to believe that Williams could become a good shooter as he shot above 80% from the line in college. With repetition, he expanded his range to fit the NBA game.

Carlos Boozer

Draft Year: 2002
Drafted By: Cleveland Cavaliers
Pick Number: 35
Left After ___ Year: Junior
College: Duke

Boozer left school after his junior season, with a National Championship under his belt from the prior year. He was a winner and produced, but many questioned his size and speed. He played out of position at Duke as well and struggled to finish against taller players. His jump shot had potential as he showed range out to 18 feet, but he didn't hit it consistently yet. But given the range he showed in college and his solid free throw shooting, it shouldn't have been a surprise that he became one of the best mid-range shooter power forwards in the game.

Boozer made an immediate impact for the Cavaliers and as a second round pick, was in line for a big pay day after playing just two seasons. He was a restricted free agent and bolted to the Utah Jazz. Ironically, Boozer went in the opposite direction as Mo Williams but both had some good years playing with LeBron.

Michael Redd

Draft Year: 2000
Drafted By: Milwaukee Bucks
Pick Number: 43
Left After ___ Year: Junior
College: Ohio State

Entering the draft after a final four run the prior year, Redd wasn't known as a shooter at all. The Ohio State star had the size and the physical profile of a prototype shooting guard, but never shot above 34% from deep in his college career. He was more known for defense and solid slashing ability. In his junior year, his FT shooting jumped from 61% his first two seasons to 77%. His improvement in shooting proved to be more than just an outlier as he went on to be one of the most prolific shooters in the NBA.

He didn't play much in his rookie season, but came on strong at the end of his second year for the Milwaukee Bucks. He didn't play consistently enough behind Ray Allen, however, for any team to trust him with a big offer as a restricted free agent so they Bucks were able to keep him on a bargain contract until the 2004-05 season. Thats when Redd cashed in with a huge contract - a contract that ended up being one of the worst contracts in the NBA as Redd battled injuries for the remainder of his NBA career.

Rashard Lewis

Draft Year: 1998
Drafted By: Seattle Supersonics
Pick Number: 32
Left After ___ Year: High School
College: N/A

Lewis was famously the last player remaining in the Green Room in 1998 and took it hard as only a high school kid. He wasn't thought of as a second round talent, but perhaps dropped because teams didn't view him as ready enough physically for the NBA. He already had signs of a great jumpshot from his high school days.

Like Michael Redd, Lewis didn't play much his rookie season and shared time as a sophomore player. Because of this, the Supersonics were able to retain Lewis for a relative bargain after he became a restricted free agent following his second season. Also like Redd, it was his third NBA contract that ended up killing a NBA team - as the Magic were stuck with his max contract for years.

Gilbert Arenas

Draft Year: 2001
Drafted By: Golden State Warriors
Pick Number: 30
Left After ___ Year: Sophomore

Arenas left Arizona his sophomore year with dreams of being picked in the first round, but instead went with the first pick and the second round. He had the talent of a first round pick, but had a lot of questions surrounding his game as well. He was in between positions, made lots of questionable decisions, and was only an average ball handler. Despite a very good first step, he didn't look like a point guard. His shooting at the time was only average as well - he shot just under 74% in his career at the FT line and 36% from behind the arc. However, his 3-pt shooting rose above 41% in his final year, although his FT% dipping to 71% sent a mixed message.

Arenas quickly became a volume scorer in the NBA, putting up big numbers on some poor Warrior teams. By his second year, Arenas was no longer a secret and drew a lot of attention as a restricted free agent. Warriors were unable to match the Wizards offer at 10 million dollars a season and lost their second round steal after just two seasons. Gilbert's third contract ended up doing in the Wizards when they signed him to a max deal and he was eventually involved in a trade for Rashard Lewis.

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This shows us that finding the guys with all-star potential isn't as easy as identifying the best athletes and the rawest players. Some guys simply get overlooked and written off. In this draft, the big time potential guys in the second round include Archie Goodwin, Ricky Ledo, BJ Young, Adonis Thomas, and Myck Kabongo. But maybe there are some guys with less tangible upside that could be overlooked. Here are two possibilities based on draft history:

Erick Green - Green fits the Mo Williams/Gilbert Arenas mold. All were great scorers in college, but didn't show much point guard skills because they were needed to score the ball. However, all had plenty of experience with the ball in their hands. Green has the jumpshot, quickness, and first step to be a scorer in the NBA. He produced big time in college, but is being overlooked in this deep point guard class.

Jackie Carmichael - Carmichael's scouting report reads very similarly to what was said about Carlos Boozer when he left Duke. Both had good post games, played smart and tough, rebounded, and showed some shooting ability. Like Boozer, Carmichael is far from a consistent shooter at this stage but has decent mechanics and range out to 18 feet.

Conclusion: If you swing for the fences, most of the time you will end up striking out. But if you just try to make solid contact, the ball will go over the fence once in awhile.

2013 Point Guard Prospects By the Numbers

In part two of our look at the "other" point guards in the draft, I examine each of their statistics and put some meaning behind their numbers. All stats are courtesy of hoop-math.com, a site dedicated to logging play by play data. Big thanks to them for all the work they do. These numbers aren't perfect because box scores aren't always accurate, but they do give you a pretty clear picture with the large sample size.

% of Shots at the Rim

Myck Kabongo - 53%

Ray McCallum - 45%

Lorenzo Brown - 39%

Nate Wolters - 30%

Shane Larkin - 28%

Pierre Jackson - 25%

Phil Pressey - 25%

Erick Green - 23%

Isaiah Canaan - 21%

Matthew Dellavedova - 12%

FG% at the Rim

Nate Wolters - 67%

Erick Green - 67%

Ray McCallum - 66%

Pierre Jackson - 64%

Shane Larkin - 62%

Lorenzo Brown - 61%

Myck Kabongo - 60%

Isaiah Canaan - 56%

Matthew Dellavedova - 53%

Phil Pressey - 45%

Assisted at the Rim 

Ray McCallum - 39%

Nate Wolters - 26%

Pierre Jackson - 24%

Lorenzo Brown - 22%

Erick Green - 21%

Matthew Dellavedova - 21%

Shane Larkin - 18%

Myck Kabongo - 14%

Isaiah Canaan - 13%

Phil Pressey - 7%

Analysis: Myck Kabongo gets to the rim as well as any player, but thats about his only move. He doesn't do a good job at controlling himself on the way to the basket and is in the bottom half in terms of FG% at the rim. 

You can also see that Ray McCallum got a lot of easy buckets at the rim, but did a good job playing without the ball in his hands. Detroit really pushed the pace and McCallum slid over to the off guard spot without a problem at times. On the contrary, you can see that Canaan, Pressey, and Kabongo are the 3 guys who NEED the ball in their hands the most to be effective.

If you're looking for the best finisher, it looks like a toss up between Erick Green and Nate Wolters. Green's numbers are especially impressive given the lack of talent around him and the competition he went up against. He still showed the ability to move without the ball and was able to finish in the lane thanks to his soft touch. 

Pressey, Canaan, and Dellevadova faired really poorly based of these numbers. That shouldn't be a surprise. All three guys were hesitant to go to the rim, thus limiting their chances, but they were still unable to be efficient. And while Canaan and Dellavedova make up for it with their outside shooting, its something Pressey will really need to improve on in order to keep defenses honest.

% of 2-pt Jumpers Taken

Erick Green - 49%

Lorenzo Brown - 39%

Phil Pressey - 37%

Nate Wolters - 35%

Matthew Dellavedova - 33%

Isaiah Canaan - 29%

Shane Larkin - 28%

Pierre Jackson - 26%

Ray McCallum - 24%

Myck Kabongo - 23%

FG% 2-pt Jumpers

Shane Larkin - 45%

Nate Wolters - 45%

Erick Green - 43%

Isaiah Canaan - 42%

Matthew Dellavedova - 42%

Phil Pressey - 38%

Pierre Jackson - 35%

Ray McCallum - 35%

Lorenzo Brown - 30%

Myck Kabongo - 12%

% of 2-pt Jumpers Assists

Pierre Jackson - 13%

Isaiah Canaan - 12%

Ray McCallum - 10%

Erick Green - 10%

Shane Larkin - 9%

Matthew Dellavedova - 4%

Lorenzo Brown - 3%

Nate Wolters - 3%

Phil Pressey - 2%

Myck Kabongo - 0%

Analysis: Once again, I think Nate Wolters and Erick Green measure up the best in this area. Both get a lot of shots off in the mid-range area and make a high percentage. And in the NBA, the have the size and feel for the game to continue to have success in the mid-range area.

Lorenzo Brown and Myck Kabongo were the two with the worst numbers. Neither did very well at the rim either, although both get most of their offense from inside the arc. That obviously brings up some questions with how they will be able to score in the NBA. Both will need to improve their pace of play as well of their jumpers to be able to play in the NBA.

Shane Larkin shot as well as anyone from the 2-pt range and probably has the best floater of anyone in the group. But his ability to get his mid-range jumper off and change speeds is still holding him back from being on the level of Erick Green and Nate Wolters. The same can be said for Pierre Jackson, although he didn't shot the ball as well the rest.

% of Shots from 3-pt Range

Matthew Dellavedova - 55%

Isaiah Canaan - 51%

Pierre Jackson - 49%

Shane Larkin - 44%

Phil Pressey - 38%

Nate Wolters - 35%

Ray McCallum - 31%

Erick Green - 29%

Myck Kabongo - 25%

Lorenzo Brown - 22%

3-pt FG%

Matthew Dellavedova - 40%

Erick Green - 39%

Shane Larkin - 39%

Nate Wolters - 38%

Isaiah Canaan - 36%

Pierre Jackson - 36%

Ray McCallum - 33%

Phil Pressey - 32%

Myck Kabongo - 30%

Lorenzo Brown - 27%

% of 3-pt Shots Assisted 

Myck Kabongo - 75%

Erick Green - 66%

Lorenzo Brown - 65%

Matthew Dellavedova - 62%

Ray McCallum - 51%

Pierre Jackson - 47%

Nate Wolters - 46%

Isaiah Canaan - 41%

Phil Pressey - 39%

Shane Larkin - 37%

Analysis: Matthew Dellavedova shows why he's in this discussion to begin with as he hit 3-pt shots at the best rate and also the highest volume. 

After him, the next 4 guys in terms of volume 3-pt shooting also happen to be the smallest. Pressey, Jackson, Larkin, and Canaan all get a lot of their offense from deep. Small guys have to be able to knock down shots consistently and for Pressey and Jackson there is a question with just how good of shooters they are. You also see why there is reason to question a guy like Jackson's shot selection and ability to run an offense. Despite his ability to break down a defense, he takes a lot of deep 3-pters outside of the flow of offense. While Jackson can be a dynamic scorer at times, he isn't consistently solid at just making the simple/right plays. That hurts his overall PG skills.

On the other end of the spectrum, its impressive how little Erick Green settles for 3-pt shots despite his success from there. Part of it may because of his shot release - his shooting mechanics have been developed for him to get mid-range jumpers off - not shoot from deep. But there is no doubt that he is one of the best shooters in this group.

Shane Larkin may not be a better shooter than Dellavedova, but he is certainly dynamic and may be the best at creating the shot next to Isaiah Canaan. He had the least amount of 3-pters assists, but still hit 39% at a high volume. Combine that with his 2-pt shooting prowess and there is little doubt he can light it up from all over the court. He's got some poor man's Steph Curry to him even though he's shorter and not QUITE the shooter.

Overall: The most balanced scorers look to be Erick Green and Nate Wolters. Both had a lot of pressure on them to score the ball, but still succeeded. Neither racked up the assists like other prospects, but they both have two of the better basketball IQs among the group. Their ability to score all over the floor and be a threat will make their passing game that much more lethal. And both do have the passing skills, they just weren't asked to show them that much at their respective schools. Erick Green will have a bigger transition to make as he played off ball more than any other prospect.

Phil Pressey, Myck Kabongo, and Lorenzo Brown all have question marks about their ability to score the ball and will have to show that they can hit jumpers more consistently. Pierre Jackson appeared to be on another level as those guys, but didn't show the balance and shooting ability you'd like to see from a guy marketed as a dynamic scorer.

Shane Larkin looked good according to these numbers, but it will be interesting to see how he does against better athletes who don't have to give him as much space. Once he gets to the NBA, he will need to find a way to shoot from mid-range. If he does, he has the makings of a poor man's Steph Curry.

Examining The PGs Outside of Burke, MCW, and Schroeder

One of the most intriguing positions this year is the lead guard position. The position is far from top heavy with just Trey Burke a lock for the lottery. It even lacks any other locks for the first round besides Michael Carter-Williams and CJ McCollom if you count him. What it does have is a lot of second round depth and a lot of competition. You can be certain that there will be another PG besides the ones mentioned above going in the first round, but the question is who? There are plenty of names to choose from and all of them have an argument to go within the first 30 picks. The second round could see quite a few point guards taken, which has not been a trend of the past couple of years. This draft lacks the surefire starters, but it could produce as many quality NBA rotational players since at least 2009.

Trey Burke is by far and away the best point guard in this class and is also arguably the safest pick in the entire draft. Depending on who wins the lottery, he could even go #1 overall. At the end of the day, I don't see a likely scenario where he slips out of the top 5.

Burke doesn't have the measurables or athleticism of your typical top 5 point guard. He might not even measure 6-0 and isn't ultra quick or explosive. But what he does have is an advanced knowledge of the game. Burke understands when to attack, when to pass, and how to get his teammates the ball where they need it. He runs the pick and roll like a surgeon and is always in complete control of the offense. He can get his points when needed, but he is also a great passer who makes his teammates better.

His predecessor, Darius Morris, took an entire year before he understood John Beilein's complex system enough to gain his trust. Thats why he was one of the most improved players statistically his sophomore season. Its just very hard to adjust to Beilein's offense as a freshman.

Yet Trey Burke was good enough to start his freshman year and allowed plenty of freedom from John Beilein. Based off that alone, you could tell that this kid was going to be special.

When I'm evaluating point guard prospects, I take a especially close look at their ability to control the tempo of the game, I also like to see how they handle adversity, run the pick and roll, change speeds, and balance scoring and passing. A point guard cannot disappear during the game. A point guard has to be the rock of the team. That is what I am looking for, guys with those traits. Trey Burke has all of that. 

There are other guys in this draft that lack these things, but have gotten by on potential. Myck Kabongo comes to mind immediately. You can even include Lorenzo Brown to an extent as his develop as a point guard isn't what you'd like to see from a junior. Michael Carter-Williams fits as well, although he's viewed on a higher tier as the rest of these guys. If you want to read more on him, check out my latest Stock Attack.

I want to focus more on the rest of the collegiate point guards in this piece and give a good overview on what to expect from each of them. All of these guys have a chance to stick in the NBA.

Nate Wolters

Strengths: Wolters is known for his scoring, but his biggest asset may be the way he attacks a defense. He knows how to read a defense and react. He understands angles and forces defenses to commit to him. He's a good passer who does an excellent job getting his teammates in good spots. He is also a very tough competitor and a gym rat. His jumper got better every year and he is constantly looking for ways to perfect it. There is a stigma around him that he's a just a shooter, but he's a very balanced scoring who looks to attack off the bounce more often than not. He should be very good in the pick and roll as he really has a good feel with the ball in his hands. In a lot of ways, he reminds me of Jeremy Lin. 

Weaknesses: Wolters is just a average athlete and will need to get stronger to play at the next level. He lacks the explosiveness to be a great finisher around the rim. He also struggles to stay in front of players, although he did a great job funneling Trey Burke into help defense in the NCAA tournament. Wolters has good height to help him overcome some of his shortcomings athletically, but below average length for his size. 

Shane Larkin

Strengths: Larkin is very quick and is nearly impossible to contain in the pick and roll. He's a pure shooter with a quick release. He also has good touch inside with a very reliable floater and is able to change speeds. He did a good job mixing up his scoring and his passing this year. He has excellent burst and can beat you in many different ways. He's very comfortable shooting off the dribble in either direction and its very tough to stop him. He does a good job getting his jumpers off, but he doesn't look to settle for just jumpers. Larkin is also a very confident and competitive player who doesn't get rattled.

Weaknesses: Larkin will measure out at under 6-0 at the combine most likely. And while he is very quick and fast, he isn't the most explosive player. He lacks a great build, although he is stronger and tougher than he looks. He also will have to continue to prove his passing abilities and show that he is a true point guard. His in between game also needs work. Defenses in the NBA won't be as afraid of his quickness, so he will have to deal more with tighter defense and NBA length. He didn't see much of that in college because his speed forced teams to go under screens and give him room. He also struggles to get all the way to the rim even though his floater game render that a moot point in college.

Erick Green

Strengths: Erick Green was arguably the best scorer in the country this season and a large part was due to his silky smooth jumper. He's very quick and had no problem creating space to get shots off and elevating over opponents. He has a great mid-range game and is effective in the pick and roll. Green also is lethal in transition where he forces a defender to stop him dead in his tracks if they want to prevent a bucket. Green has a high basketball IQ and is very unselfish, despite his scoring numbers. At Virginia Tech, they needed him to be a scorer so that is what he did, but it doesn't mean he can't run point guard. He just didn't have a good team around him. Finally, Green is a good defender who managed to play hard on that end of the court well. He is obviously very well conditioned.

Weaknesses: Green has spent his time at Virginia Tech being a scorer and hasn't had time gaining experience as a true point guard. He will have to learn the position as he goes in the NBA. Green also has a narrow frame and lacks strength. He could have trouble defending stronger guards. Green also may struggle against physical defense. His lack of success in college in terms of winning will also be something teams will look for answers to.

Phil Pressey 

Strengths: Pressey is a pure point guard who gets into the lane at will and finds teammates. He plays with a ton of confidence and with the sense that he is always the best player on the court. He is one of the few pass first point guards in college nowadays and possessing outstanding vision. He's a creative passer and is able to create plays from nothing. He does an excellent job pushing the ball in transition and can stop and pull up on the move. There is plenty of fight with Pressey and he wants to win badly. He always wants the ball in his hands with the game on the line.

Weaknesses: Pressey will have to overcome his size and his inability to finish at the rim at the next level. He also made some questionable decisions down the stretch of games this season. He tries to do too much a lot of times and turned it over more than any other PG prospect. Although he has great vision, his game management needs a lot of work. Pressey had a bit of a down year after most of his teammates left for the NBA last season. He's a solid shooter, but not great and will have trouble getting his shot off in the pros. Defense will also be hard for him and he didn't always play with good effort on that side of the ball.  He lacks the explosiveness or scoring instincts of other small guards who have been successful in the NBA as of late.

Pierre Jackson

Strengths: Jackson is a dynamic player, both in terms of scoring and passing. He was the first player since Jason Terry to lead a BCS conference in scoring and assists. Jackson is very quick and packs a lot of explosiveness in his small frame. He can get to his spots at will on the court, pull up and hit mid-range jumpers, and also knock down deep threes. Jackson also has no problem breaking down defenses and creating for others. He's a competitive, hard working player who doesn't have any glaring weaknesses. He projects as a Nate Robinson type instant offense off the bench, but with better court sense.

Weaknesses: Jackson is another guard who is undersized and may be closer to 5-9 than 6-0. He will struggle defensively and will also need to show a better effort there. Jackson will need to add some bulk to continue to play his style. He also needs to continue to work on his point guard skills by changing speeds and making the simple plays. He turns the ball over a little too much at this point.

Isaiah Canaan

Strengths: Canaan was one of the best scorers in college basketball thanks to his jump shot with unlimited range. He mastered the art of pulling up from deep in transition. He also is able to create his shot with his crossover and step back move from both 3-pt range and inside the arc. Canaan has a strong frame and plays with a chip on his shoulder. He is also very good shooting with his feet set. In terms of putting the ball in the basket, there aren't many guys that do it better than him.

Weaknesses: Canaan is undersized and not a pure point guard. He doesn't get off the ground very quickly. His shot release is also a little slow for a guy who projects as a shooter at the next level. Canaan looks to score more than pass and its not clear whether he has the ability to make plays for others. This year he was able to show improvement in terms of changing speeds. It is also a question of whether he can defend. Canaan struggled to answer many of these questions last summer during skill camps.

Myck Kabongo

Strengths: Kabongo has very good length and quickness for a point guard, enabling him to be a pesky defender and come up with plenty of steals. Kabongo has no problem breaking down defenses and getting into the paint, where he is a solid drive and dish point guard. He has good handles and has budding leadership skills. Kabongo also is a high character guy who has been through a lot in his life. The general skills that Kabongo possess are what many seek in a point guard - high character, defense, pass first, quickness, and the ability to get by defenders.

Weaknesses: Kabongo never put together a good season in college and was suspended for his relationship with a NBA agent. While he seems like a good kid, many believe he is being misled by those around him. Kabongo also has poor mechanics on his shot and lacks a great feel for the point guard position. He only plays at one speed and dominates the ball. He's also turnover prone and needs to get stronger. His ability to run a team will need major work and he'll likely have to spend a year in the D-League at least.

Ray McCallum

Strengths: McCallum turned it over less than any other point guard with the potential to get drafted, despite being a huge part of his teams offense. He is the coach's son and plays like one. He plays under control and at a steady pace. He is able to get all the way to the rim, but also has a developing mid-range game. McCallum is a very good passer as well, although this season he took on the scoring role. Part of the reason his turnovers were so low was because he took a lot of quick jumpers and didn't attempt to force any drives or passes. McCallum is deceptively quick and does a good job running the pick and roll. He is also a solid athlete. 

Weaknesses: McCallum improved his jumper this year, but still shot a fairly low percentage from the 3-pt line. His jumper looked good, however, and he had to take a lot of tough contested shots. There is also a question of whether McCallum is dynamic enough as a player. He doesn't do anything at an elite or even very good level. McCallum also has short arms and can have trouble finishing at the next level. He didn't play against the best competition, but should look better when he is surrounded by better teammates and able to play as a more tradition PG.

Lorenzo Brown

Strengths: Brown possesses very good height and vision for a point guard. He is able to break down defenses and is crafty with his passing and ball handling. He has made the transition from a high school combo guard to a success college point guard while racking up plenty of assists. Brown also does a very good job when he is able to push the ball in transition and has good foot work en route to the rim. He is able to finish in a variety of ways. He's a fluid athlete who uses his long strides to his advantage. He can create his own shots pretty easily thanks to his size, ball handling, and creativity.

Weaknesses: Brown is still learning the nuances of being a point guard and was the leader of a very inconsistent and underperforming North Carolina State team. He is also a poor shooter who saw his shooting numbers drop to record lows this season. Brown also can be too crafty for his own good - often making shots at the rim tougher than they should be and trying to get into seams where he can't fit through. He doesn't do a good job drawing fouls despite his slashing ability, which is a result of him trying to avoid contact. He lacks the strength to finish with contact. He is also old for his class and will be 23 by the time the 2013-14 NBA season kicks off.

Honorable Mention: 

Matthew Dellavedova

Dellavedova is an outstanding shooter and combines that with great size and strength. He has proven he can run a team both in college and at the Olympic level. His experience shows on the court and he passes over the defense very well. Dellevadova knows how to use the pick and roll to his advantage, although he rarely gets to the rim. He's an underrated prospect who gets dismissed because he isn't a very good athlete.

Conclusion:

I believe that Pierre Jackson is the most NBA ready point guard of this group to fill a role. He fits perfectly into the Nate Robinson/Isaiah Thomas role. However, I don't see him ever being a consistent starter which is why I'd consider taking a few other guys over him.

Right now Nate Wolters, Erick Green, Ray McCallum, and Shane Larkin each have a better chance than Jackson of developing into a starter. Each of them also have question marks that could have them glued to the bench or out of the league in a few years. But this is a very solid group and I believe at least one will turn into a NBA starting point guard. Green is the best shooter of the bunch and also looks to be the best defender. He is also able to score at all three levels, has high character, and NBA level quickness/explosiveness which is why I currently have him ranked higher than anyone else on this list.

But McCallum and Wolters are both intriguing guys who could end up being better once they are surrounded by better teammates. They both have very good point guard skills, but were asked to be more of scorers for their teams. While they aren't typical "upside" guys, they could surprise people who aren't familiar with them.

Larkin doesn't have the size of the other three nor does he have the experience. His transition to the NBA looks to be a little rougher which is why I think he shouldn't get selected until Round 2. His upside is also kind of a mystery. The other guys have more defined roles as true point guards and are more ready to contribute which is why I believe they should get some consideration as possible late first round picks.

Finally, we have Isaiah Canaan, Phil Pressey, Myck Kabongo, and Lorenzo Brown. For Kabongo, I see too big of a question mark to invest a first round pick on. He won't be ready to contribute for a few years and will need to grind in the D-League to ever be successful. An unguaranteed contract has his name written all over it.

Canaan doesn't have the point guard skills to ever start in the NBA and if you want a scorer off the bench, Pierre Jackson is a better bet. Canaan to me seems like a guy who will likely be out of the league in a few years. 

Pressey and Brown quite frankly, haven't impressed me. Pressey is a pass first point guard who makes questionable decisions. He can't shoot, defend, or finish inside. Brown failed to lead his college team and is old by NBA draft standards. He has a lot of holes in his game for a 22 year old and the likelihood of him fixing those holes aren't great, especially considering he took a step back this season. 

Scouting Report: Erick Green

Its rare for a player in a big time conference to lead the nation in scoring and it is even more rare for someone to do that and get as little publicity as Virginia Tech's Erick Green has gotten. Green is the first player from a major conference to lead the NCAA in scoring since Glenn Robinson did it in 1994 and the only other player in ACC history to do it was South Carolina's Grady Wallace back in 1957.

Green is used to traveling under the radar. Virginia Tech was the only ACC school that was willing to allow him to realize his dream of playing ACC basketball. Green spent his senior season in high school playing at Paul VI, a basketball power in the DMV area, and showed off the same impressive scoring ability that he has continued to do in college.

Green was a combo guard coming out of high school, and still is to this point, but that doesn't mean he is incapable of running the point position or making plays. Green is actually a very smart and unselfish decision maker and is certainly accustomed to having the ball in his hand.

After two seasons watching and learning from Malcolm Delaney at Virginia Tech, Erick Green took over the scoring load during his junior season. The Hokies had made the NIT the previous two years, but since Green has been the leader they've been relegated to the bottom of the ACC Standings.

While his lack of winning ways beg questions that need answering, it is important to understand what Virginia Tech lost after his sophomore season and the type of talent he is currently surrounded with. Green is the sole playmaker on the team and is asked to do virtually everything - including be their defensive stopper at times. While winning would have helped Green's talent get recognized more, it is very unfair to write him off as a prospect because he hasn't won in Blacksburg. Virginia Tech has been without a threat in the post or a secondary ball handler in each of the past two season.

It is a major bonus to his character that he hung around in Blacksburg and never showed any frustration. After Seth Greenburg left and Dorian Finney-Smith - their hope for the future - transferred, it was apparent that Green's senior year may be a long one and a rebuilding season for the program. Yet he didn't ever entertain leaving and came into this season as one of the most improved players in the country. He was always a positive influence at Virginia Tech, loved by both fans and teammates alike. Even though he was clearly the most talented player on his team, he never acted like he was above everyone else. NBA teams can breath easy knowing the have a good character guy on their hands if they decide to draft him.

Erick Green stands at about 6-3 with long, lanky arms (6'6.5'') and a slender frame. He is deceptively quick and extremely fast in the open court. Green does a ton of damage in transition, often refusing to be stopped until a defender is forced to foul him. Green is also an excellent shooter of the dribble, arguably the most prolific in the country, and has no problem getting shots off. His scoring exploits come from a combination of transition opportunities, off the dribble mid-range jumpers, and pick and roll plays. 

Green loves to use the pick and roll and head to his left, although he tends to finish with his right hand. He is very deceptive and crafty with the ball and handles the basketball like it is on a string. He can toy with defenders and is the cause of plenty of sore ankles. Green combines his crossover move with subtle head fakes, shiftiness, and hesitations to keep the defense completely off balance. He is able to create space in the mid-range at will and has hit these tough jumpers at over a 40% rate the past two years - most of the created all by himself off the bounce. Although Green creates space for his shots with his dribble, he also has a natural fade on his jumper and gets good separation that way. In terms of shooting closely contested twos, only Isaiah Canaan and Deshaun Thomas can call themselves his peer.

At the NBA level, scorers are usually asked to do more than hit contested two point shots though. No matter how good you are at making them, contested twos are something a lot of GMs and coaches have looked to get away from as the statistical evolution continues. It certainly doesn't render Green's skills useless, but he will need to be able to bring more to a team than just his mid-range game.

The main variable in whether Erick Green will be a successful NBA player is his frame. Right now, he is very skinny and has trouble getting all the way to the rim and finishing. Green does a great job of being creative and has mastered the appropriate footwork en route to the rim (as well as a nice floater), but his strength and average at best leaping is tough to compensate for. Green won't near as many transition opportunities in the NBA and will need to be able to get tough points inside in a halfcourt offense.

Green shares some similarities to the Pacer's George Hill who was also an excellent scorer in college as a combo guard. Hill has made the successful transition to point guard and I believe Green shares the same qualities as a basketball player. Green is smart enough to run an offense and has no trouble being unselfish. He has been a great leader during his stay at Virginia Tech while continuing to compete all the way until the end of his senior season. But again, the difference between Green and Hill comes down to their physical profile. Hill has put on weight since coming into the league, but he had the profile of a stronger guard coming out of college - complete with wide shoulders. Green's shoulders on the other hand, don't suggest much room for growth.

As a three point shooter, Green has hit shots at around a 38% clip in his final two years on campus - showing much improvement from his sub-30% figures his first two seasons. Green has certainly put in the work to improve his shot and has increased his range from 18 feet to beyond the college 3. Green's stroke however, is much more conducive to being a good mid-range/off the dribble shooter than it is for being a great NBA 3-pt shooter. For one, Green puts a lot of effort into his shot and it looks like stepping back a few more feet for NBA 3s will be a bit of an adjustment for him. Green also uses a lot of his legs in a swinging motion and fades on his shots - great for mid-range shots as I said - but his release is a little lengthy for a spot up shooter. I think Green will be a solid 3-pt shooter in the league, but I don't think that it will be his ticket for playing time.

As for his defense, Green has been very impressive with both his ability and effort on that end of the court. Considering his workload he handles on offense, it would be almost expected that he takes breathers on defense but it seems he takes great pride in both sides of the ball. Green has the length and lateral quickness to bother players and is disruptive in the passing lanes. He has great anticipation skills and rarely makes any mental errors. Some will look at him and project him as a versatile defender who can cover both guard spots while there will be others who will question his quickness to cover PGs and his strength in covering SGs. His defense may, once again, come down to how much strength he is able to put on. Regardless, I don't think Green will be a reliability on defense simply because of his length, effort, and basketball IQ.

Moving forward, a lot of Green's success will depend on his frame's development., but I like him as a prospect. He is certainly underrated and is one of the better senior guard prospects in the country. He could sneak up into the late first/early second round territory after teams are down evaluating the film and discover he may be the best immediate option if they need a scoring guard. As of now, I believe he is clearly the best senior PG ahead of Nate Wolters, Isaiah Canaan, Matthew Dellavedova, and Pierre Jackson and possesses the most upside as well. He shouldn't have a problem playing the NBA's version of PG as long as he has a solid ball handler beside him.

Maryland vs Virginia Tech

Maryland 94, Virginia Tech 71

This was a statement game for the Terrapins, and even though I'm a bit bias, this is a team that is severely underrated. They can play effectively big or small and are well balanced on both ends of the court. They also have a good mix of veterans and new players.

Dez Wells has been key for the Terps, acting as the playmaker on offense and stopper defensively. He is impossible to keep out of the lane and has the body type and athleticism to be an elite finisher at the rim. Right now shooting is his only Achilles' heel, but he looks like a future first rounder.

Alex Len continues to show an excellent feel and arsenal in the post. He had 16 points and 9 rebounds in just 24 minutes. The thing about Maryland is they can focus their offense around him, but are equally deadly with him off the court. Len did have some problems with the physical play of Cadarian Raines, but it was a positive start in his mission to prove he is for real.

Maryland's freshman class is special. Seth Allen and Charles Mitchell were the two unheralded prospects from the class, but have made the biggest impact. Allen is very quick, but plays under control. He can get to the rim, pullup in the mid-range area, and stretch the defense out with his jumper. He also can transition back and forth from passer to scorer with ease.

Mitchell has earned his way into the starting lineup over senior James Padgett thanks to his ability as a rebounder. He has been one of the best in the country so far and will only get better as his conditioning improves. Turgeon says he doesn't always give 100% in practice so once he learns how to prepare himself and his body, he could be a scary force. Mitchell is a name to watch in the coming years as he plays himself into good shape.

The two top freshman from their class were Jake Layman and Shaq Cleare. Cleare was a top 50 recruit who has been outplayed by Mitchell so far, but has still contributed well himself. He doesn't have the same rebounding range as Mitchell, but has been on the receiving end of some thunderous dunks. For Layman, he got the start in the backcourt against the Hokies, creating all kinds of matchup problems. He was on Team USA's U-18 team over the summer. He's a guy the Terps will need in ACC play to stretch the defense with his shooting. Saturday was his best performace as he notche 15 points in the first half, finishing with 20.

For Virginia Tech, Erick Green managed to get 28 points even in a 94-71 route. He capitalizes on every opportunity to push the ball in transition he can get. Green is a guy who struggles with a man right in his face and Pe'Shon Howard bothered him at times. But if you get him running in transition or with the ball around a screen, he is deadly. Despite his 28 points, it seemed like the Terps kept him in check and prevented him from dictating any type of tempo. He only had 2 assists to go along with his 2 turnovers.

ACC Conference Preview

PGs

Shane Larkin
Quinn Cook
Lorenzo Brown
Ian Miller
Erick Green
Marcus Paige

The ACC is famous for their point guard play, but this year may lack a first rounder. Lorenzo Brown has the best shot and conference play will be important for him. He will be more experienced than most of the ACC point guards and will be expected to lead NC State to a high finish in ACC play. Anything less than second place will be a disappointment.

Erick Green is the leading scorer in the country and ACC play won't stop him. He's a very talented offensive player and deserves second round looks in the draft. He is very quick and has tight handles, allowing him to play with defenders. He does a great job in the pick and roll, able to turn the corner or hit the long jumper. He is a scorer first, but is able to find teammates on kick outs. He can go left or right and his go to move may be a left handed drive finished with a soft, right-handed floater. He's a controlled driver and finishes well at the rim. In transition, he is deadly because of his speed and ability to avoid defenders. He shows good leadership and encourages teammates, but also coaches them up and expects a lot out of them.

SGs

PJ Hairston
Seth Curry
Rodney Purvis
Dexter Strickland
Durand Scott

Durand Scott has been one of my favorite players to watch this year. Despite other higher profiled players, I think either Durand Scott or Erick Green is the best guard in the ACC. Durand Scott is a tough competitor and a great defender. He has no problem breaking down defenses and finishing with creative layups. He also has added a 3-pt shot to his arsenal. The majority of Scott's shots are tough and he is actually a better shooter off the dribble and unbalanced than he is spotting up. He has done a fine job fitting in with Shane Larkin and picking his spots within the offensive flow. He isn't a guy who moves great off the ball and creates easy scoring opportunities for himself, but he is so talented in the sense that he doesn't need easy ways to score. Miami is best in the halfcourt when Larkin and Scott can breakdown defenses.

In terms of scoring, Seth Curry is right up there with Scott and Green, but isn't as athletic or as much of a playmaker. This year he has stepped up and shown the world that he is creative off the bounce and can create his own offense. I think he's always had it in him, but between trying to play point guard and sharing the ball with Austin Rivers, this is his first chance to focus on scoring the ball.

PJ Hairston is actually the best per minute scoring shooting guard in the ACC, but is only averaging 18 minutes per game. And rightfully so. He can shoot you out of a game just as well as he can shoot you into a game. He has followed up his freshman year by continuing to be a streaky scorer who settles for jumpshots. Hairston looked like he could be a nice threat heading to the rim out of college, but he tries to get to the rim and the explosion isn't prominent.

Defensively, Dexter Strickland and Rodney Purvis both get after it. Strickland's draft stock hasn't been helped this year, as he doesn't look fully recovered from his torn ACL injury. He has done a good job setting up teammates and acting as a point guard when needed. Yet his potential as a NBA point guard looks dim. With lost athleticism, Strickland is taking more jumpers inside the arc and has done a so-so job of converting. He gets nice elevation on his jumper to get shots off, but his form isn't pretty.

On the other end, the way Rodney Purvis has came on as a freshman with great defense is impressive. He also runs the court very well, leaking out in transition like a wide receiver. Offensively, he can hit the jumper and get by defenders with a nice first step. He has a floater that he can utilize as well.

SFs

Rasheed Sulaimon
Reggie Bullock
TJ Warren
Milton Jennings
Okaro White

Sulaimon is a shooting guard, but plays a lot of small forward in Duke's offense. The UNC/Duke games are always interesting for a multitude of reasons, but as a draft enthusiast, Im looking forward to see how Sulaimon fares against the older Bullock.

Milton Jennings has improved his jumper and looks comfortable out on the perimeter in his senior year. It seems like he has been around forever. He actually is pretty smooth shooting off the dribble, but his strength holds him back from being much of a force. He struggles to get where he wants to on the court and still gets pushed around.

PFs

CJ Leslie
Ryan Kelly
James Michael McAdoo
Kenny Kadji

All four of these power forwards are face up types and generally avoid contact, but they are all very different. Kelly has the best basketball IQ and a complete skillset, but is an awful rebounding big. CJ Leslie is the most physically talented, but lacks any sense of the game. James Michael McAdoo has a great feel AND athleticism, but has been extremely soft and turnover prone. And Kadji flashes some guard skills, but will be 25 by draft night!

Leslie vs McAdoo will be must watch games and could help McAdoo's stock. He will get a chance to show he can hang with an athlete like Leslie, while being the much smarter player. UNC better have someone step up at the center position though, or else McAdoo may be getting abused by Richard Howell all night instead.

Cs

Alex Len
Mason Plumlee
Richard Howell
Reggie Johnson

All four of these guys could end up getting draft this year and all are heading into conference play with their heads held high. Plumlee has injected himself into player of the year conversations, Len has been talked about as a top 5 pick, Howell has been NCSU's best player, and Johnson has lost weight and been impressive in the early going. Now with conference play, each will have a chance to prove themselves.

Len vs Plumlee will be huge - but what about Howell going up against them? Howell has the ability to shut either of them done and bully them. Howell has the most to gain heading into conference play. For Alex Len, he has the most to lose. He improved a lot over the offseason, but he still has only had one good game against NBA caliber big men - and they were playing in their first ever college game! He will be expected to continue to produce consistently against the ACC and that is no sure thing.

Top Ten Defenders

1. Michael Snaer
2. Reggie Bullock
3. Richard Howell
4. Durand Scott
5. Mason Plumlee
6. Dez White
7. Ian Miller
8. Rasheed Sulaimon
9. Reggie Johnson
10. Dexter Strickland


Top Ten Shooters

1. Scott Wood
2. Seth Curry
3. Erick Green
4. Reggie Bullock
5. Ryan Kelly
6. CJ Harris
7. PJ Hairston
8. Quinn Cook
9. Marcus Paige
10. Shane Larkin

All Freshman Team

Marcus Paige
Rodney Purvis
Rasheed Sulaimon
TJ Warren
Charles Mitchell

Seth Allen
Justin Anderson
Marcus Georges-Hunt
Robert Carter
Joel James (Over Brice Johnson because I think James is more ready for ACC play)


Top 25 NBA Prospects (young players with limited playing time omitted)

1. James Michael McAdoo
2. Rasheed Sulaimon
3. Alex Len
4. Mason Plumlee
5. Richard Howell
6. TJ Warren
7. Dez Wells
8. Michael Snaer
9. Lorenzo Brown
10. CJ Leslie
11. Marcus Paige
12. Rodney Purvis
13. Durand Scott
14. Erick Green
15. Joel James
16. Reggie Johnson
17. Ryan Kelly
18. PJ Hairston
19. Seth Curry
20. Kenny Kadji
21. Ian Miller
22. Travis McKie
23. Milton Jennings
24. Daniel Miller
25. Dexter Strickland