NCAA Tournament Preview - Midwest

Filling out brackets and reading statistical analysis of every single analysis may not be for you. Maybe you are more of a NBA fan that turns to college basketball during the month of March in order to get a look at the next wave of pros. If so, this is for you. In a four part series, I'll examine the top prospects to watch in each region as well as some surprise players and matchups.

The Midwest region is the unanimous choice for toughest region and it holds true in terms of prospects as well. The region is home to Marcus Smart, Gorgui Dieng, Mason Plumlee, Gary Harris, Doug McDermott, and plenty of other NBA players.

Games to Watch

Colorado State vs Missouri

Colorado State is a team many aren't familiar with but have been very good in the competitive MWC. Colorado State has a very physical frontline led by Minnesota transfer Colton Iverson, who is starting to garner interest from NBA teams. Iverson is a huge presence inside and is very well schooled on defense. He moves well and could be a Greg Stiemsma type in the NBA. Against Missouri, he will face two senior big men in Laurence Bowers and Alex Oriakhi that have a shot to be drafted. Oriakhi is a banger type himself, who you should remember from the UCONN National Championship team. It will be interesting to see how those two fare against each other as they could legitimately be battling for a spot in the second round of the NBA draft.

Missouri also features Phil Pressey whose decision making and ability to perform in the clutch has been ridiculed as of late. A physical Colorado State team will certainly test him, but if they do win, seeing him matchup against Louisville's suffocating defense in the round of 32 could make or break his stock.

Oklahoma State vs Oregon

Oregon was a better team earlier in the season when freshman point guard Dominic Artis was 100% healthy, but his backup Johnathan Loyd did step up in the Pac-12 Title game with a MVP level performance. Both are sub-6 feet and very quick playmakers who will put Marcus Smart's defense to the test. Smart as you probably know, is a potential top 5 pick in this upcoming draft and is known for toughness and leadership. He's a great team defender, but it will be interesting to see if he has the lateral quickness to stay with the Duck's two speedsters. 

On the inside, Arsalan Kazemi and LeBryan Nash should provide a battle for those that love tough, physical play. Kazemi lacks any type of offense game, but relishes his role as a rebounder on the team and could potentially carve out a similar role in the NBA. Nash is a tough combo forward who is currently most effective within 18 feet of the rim. He has a very good mid-range game and is still working on expanding his range/improving his ball handling so he can play small forward at the next level. Kazemi has a very good opportunity to show NBA teams he can be a lockdown defender as well against Nash while Nash will look to prove otherwise.

Moving Forward

The winner of Missouri/Colorado State will get Louisville, which will provide another test for either frontline. Gorgui Dieng, Montrezl Harrell, and Chane Behanon all have NBA potential on the inside for the Cardinals. Dieng is the one to key on as he should be a first round pick this year. He will get an opportunity to show toughness against against either Iverson or Oriakhi. Dieng doesn't score much in the low post, but does an excellent job facilitating offense in the high post and blocking shots on the other end. He's a good passer with a developing jumper, although his post game remains nonexistant. Louisville generally plays a zone so there haven't been a lot of chances to see him defending a strong post scorer one on one in Big East play, but a game against Colorado State could provide such a matchup.

As stated before, if Missouri wins, Phil Pressey will be the one to watch. Peyton Siva and Russ Smith lead a very talented Louisville defense that likes to press and squeeze the life out of an opponent. They just exposed potential lottery pick Michael Carter-Williams in the Big East title game and could do the same to Pressey.

Another good round of 32 matchup to root for is Michigan State vs Memphis. Memphis has fringe NBA prospects at every position, although none are that close to making an impact. Michigan State their fair share as well - Adreian Payne, Branden Dawson, Gary Harris, and Keith Appling. Dawson will be tested against Adonis Thomas, a prospect who was once considered a potential lottery pick. Thomas has failed to assert his will against a weak conference USA schedule however, but has a chance to win back fans against the physical Dawson. Thomas has a great mid-range game and plays within the offense. Dawson is less refined, but an absolute beast on the offensive glass. His skills still need to be developed, but they both could be first rounders a year from now.

The Philadelphia pod could play host to a matchup of Doug McDermott vs Ryan Kelly if Creighton gets by Cincinnati. Kelly has missed most of Duke's conference schedule, but has one over a lot of fans upon his return. He's a stretch PF that doesn't help much on the boards, but plays very good defense for a guy who is a below average athlete. His defense will certainly be needed facing one of the nation's top scorers in Doug McDermott, who can get it done both inside and out 

Mason Plumlee will have his hands full in that one as well, as former Rutgers big man Gregory Echenique is Creighton's starting center. Echenique is an absolute load inside and can bully just about anyone around when he wants to. Plumlee will likely look to showcase his perimeter game against him which should be interesting. Plumlee isn't much of a shooter and is not nearly as good of a ball handler as he believes he is.

The Sweet Sixteen could pit another very good point guard against Louisville's defense if Marcus Smart and the Cowboys survive that far. Smart's ability to handle the ball in traffic and his quickness will be tested. From the looks of Oklahoma State's draw, Smart will get a chance to prove to doubters and fans alike that he is a legitimate top 5 pick.

Also in the Sweet Sixteen could be Michigan State vs Duke, which would matchup two of the best freshman shooting guards in the country. Gary Harris and Rasheed Sulaimon both have first round potential. While Gary Harris is the better player currently - possibly the best on the Spartans team - Sulaimon has the length and defensive potential that intrigue NBA scouts. He's been up and down this season, but a hot March that results in a Duke final four could heat up his stock. More than likely though, you see both of these players back next year.

Plumlee will have to go against Derrick Nix after facing Gregory Echenique the game before, which would put him up against two big bruisers in a row. Ryan Kelly vs Adreian Payne will be intriguing as both could be 2nd round picks this year (or next year for Payne). Both have the ability to shoot outside, while Kelly is the more polished player. Payne however, has some untapped potential on the defensive end.

This region could ultimately set up a early season rematch between Louisville and Duke - one that Duke ended up winning in Puerto Rico. This time around the Cardinals will have Gorgui Dieng, who was injured the last time these two faced off. Dieng vs Plumlee will be a huge matchup. Plumlee has been considered the best upperclassmen center prospect by most, although I have always believed Dieng to be the better prospect. Pitting them against each other here, will be one of the last time either of them get to weigh in on the debate. 

Illinois State Loses to Creighton; Down 0-2 in Conference

After tonight's loss to Creighton, Illinois State is now 9-5 overall and has suffered two straight losses to begin Missouri Valley play. They were very much in their last two games and also came up just short in losses to Northwestern and Louisville. With only a win over Dayton to be proud of, this solid Illinois State team now has their back against the wall and will need to go on a conference tournament run in order to appear in the NCAAs. This a tournament quality team that has the makeup of a Cinderella, but their backs are now against the wall.

In the Missouri Valley, it is all about the team, but this game was attended by a lot of NBA scouts to see Doug McDermott against Jackie Carmichael inside. Neither covered each other as Echenique was in charge of handling Carmichael and Illinois State refused to play McDermott straight up. Carmichael finished with 10 points while McDermott had a quiet 15.

Neither brought their "A" games tonight, but were big parts of keeping their teams in it despite of it. Illinois State opened up the game by consciously leaving facilitator Grant Gibbs open. It turned out to be a mistake as Gibbs was able to hit open jumpers and make smart decisions. After abandoning that look, Illinois State decided to throw a 2-3 zone at Creighton for the rest of the game - another thing Grant Gibbs exploited. Grant Gibbs proved he is no slouch tonight. He is a coach on the floor type, but if you allow him to make decisions, you can bet he will make the right ones. Going up against the zone, Gibbs was the guy who was able to get into the holes of the defense and find teammates cutting to the rim. Illinois State lacked the length on the wings to contest these shots and left Carmichael in hopeless situations. Man to man defense would have been Illinois State's best bet tonight, not a zone that got torched from both inside and outside the arc.

The defensive schemes Illinois State played asked a lot of Carmichael as a rim protector and put him in some bad situations. He picked up 3 fouls - all while Illinois State was in the zone. The fouls weren't the reason Carmichael only played 29 minutes though. I don't quite understand that one. He was taken out of the game 5 times and wasn't given a chance to establish a rhythm. Illinois State's guards jacked up a lot of quick 3s and they didn't slow down to get set plays for Carmichael. It took until the final minute for them to realize that they could have done some damage with their senior power forward in the pick and roll situation. Carmichael is at his best when setting screens or quickly slipping away.

This down game for Carmichael does allow me to talk about some of his negatives though. I've been busy hyping him up and trying to get people to recognize him to criticize parts of his game that need work.

Just by looking at the numbers, his bad assist to turnover ratio jumps out. For a guy who is under control in the post, has good skills, doesn't get pushed around, and plays smart this is a bit surprising. He does a nice job passing too. But Carmichael will occasionally try to force a drive from outside of 15 feet which rarely ends well. He also struggles to get separation in the post which results in getting the ball stripped more than he should. Overall. turnovers happen when you are such a focal point inside.

The lack of separation gets to me though. Its not that he can't create separation - he has good footwork and skills in the post, is quick, and has the body to carve out space. It is just how he chooses to take his shots. On fadeaway type shots, Carmichael doesn't actually fadeaway, instead he turns around and goes straight up. And then on plays where he should be aggressive and not fadeaway, he leans his upperbody in, but keeps his arms out in front of him - rendering his strong frame useless. If Carmichael learned the mechanics of the fadeaway jumper as well as learned the way to properly use his strength when shooting, his offensive game would be more consistent. The way he goes about it now, it looks like he is too conscious of trying to draw contact than to create open looks for himself.

Carmichael is now 9-27 from the field in conference play. Their next game is against Northern Iowa who did a great job being physical with Anthony Bennett earlier this season.

A Brief Overview of the Most Pure Shooting Wings A Playoff Team can Snag

Teams are always in need of shooters. For playoff teams, they can be the last piece of the puzzle. The draft is one way they can find these players. By the time these playoff teams are on the clock, sweet shooters like CJ McCollom and Ben McLemore will be long gone. But there are other guys that are worth a look from the end of the first round and on down. Here is a brief look at some notable guys:

The best shooting wing a playoff team can grab is Reggie Bullock. He's a great defender and has deep range. He does all the little things for UNC. Even with the Heels struggling and him being able to step up as a creator, Bullock still possesses great role playing qualities. He won't ever be a creator or great off the dribble, but he is a smart offensive player and passes the ball well.

If you want a more dynamic guy who can shoot, go for Brandon Paul. He's an athletic combo guard who has stepped up big time so far in his senior season. He likes to shoot 3s, but is capable for getting to the rim as well. He can play some point guard and has shown good leadership abilities, but is more of a scorer off the bench type. His effort on defense is solid.

Caldwell-Pope is another option if he chooses to come out. Like Bullock, he has ideal size and a sweet stroke and plays with energy on defense. Unlike Bullock, he takes a lot of bad shots and makes quite a few mental errors. He is really good shooting off the bounce though moving either way - he isnt creative, but has a nice first step that is enough to get good separation for his jumper. He also can explode to the rim at times, although that is mainly just to keep defenses honest.

Of the three, I like Bullock the best.

It might be better to wait for the second round to grab a shooting wing, depending on who declares. Crabbe, Kilpatrick, Wilcox, Deshaun Thomas and McDermott all are shooters and happen to be juniors.

Kilpatrick is the oldest of the group and also the most likely to declare. He may be the least of the pure shooters, but also possesses the ability to get to the basket thanks to his strength. He's only an average athlete, but plays tough. He might be the best of the group - certainly the most well-rounded.

Wilcox is built like Reggie Bullock. Tall, somewhat lanky, spot up shooter. He projects as a pure spot up shooter in the NBA. His defense has the potential to be solid enough for him to stick.

Crabbe is an interesting player who does his best work moving without the ball. He's more explosive and quick than he looks based off his smallish stature. He doesn't just settle for 3-pt shots. He finds a lot of ways to score including out in transition, off mid-range curls, and cuts to the basket. His defense at the next level is suspect.

McDermott is the old ball of the group - I wanted to exclude stretch PFs from the list. In college McDermott is neither a stretch forward or a small forward, he actually spends most of his time in the post. And he is very good at getting position, drawing fouls, and finishing through contact. His energy on the court goes unmatched. I'm projecting him as a small forward though because he would get bullied down low in the NBA. He can provide great shooting while also being a threat to put it on the floor and use his craftiness. Defense will always be tough for him, but you cant fault his energy. A big part of defense for wings has to do with chasing players around the court and going through screens so McDermott will at least be able to prove how active he is on D.

DeShaun is a big time scorer who can shoot the ball from anywhere on the court and in any situation. When he is hot, he is on fire. He is completely unrattled by a defender's hand directly in his face. Thomas  can be a blackhole at times, but has gotten better at passing the ball this season. He also is able to take defenders in the post and score from there. Defensively, Thomas is a big time tweener who projects to be a poor defender at the next level. The energy or physical gifts just aren't there.

More Thoughts From the Weekend Games

I'm still pouring over games from the weekend, as it was jammed packed full up hoops action. I just want to get some of my thoughts down as I continue to dissect the play of certain prospects.

UNC vs UAB

- This was a typical North Carolina game where they just used their talent to run their opponent off the court. A 18 point win over UAB doesn't mean anything other than they are more talented than the Blazers. We know that. The questions about UNC are still as prominent as ever.

- One of those questions is their scoring options, which I've been harping on since the summer. But another problem is their big men. McAdoo is obviously their best big and he's not living up to expectations. Brice Johnson has been a pleasant surprise, but he can't hold his own inside. He's the type of player UNC usually has the luxury of not playing during his freshman year.

While those two may be the best bigs UNC has (which is lightyears away from the Zeller/Henson frontline of last year), they are both finesse bigs that are already getting pushed around. Once ACC play starts, this problem will be even more evident.

Joel James got the start against UAB over Desmond Hubert, but only logged 12 minutes. He fumbled a few passes and was unable to defend UAB's face up big men so he quickly got yanked. Hubert only played 7 minutes and it actually was the best 7 minutes I've seen out of him.

Thats UNC's big man rotation. A overhyped sophomore who can't handle the expectations, a skinny freshman who can't handle inside play, a big man still trying to get in shape, and Hubert who was signed purely for depth.

James will get better and he is the guy they need to step up during ACC play. He's shown flashes of brilliance at times. Johnson has the quick catch and shoot turnaround jumper down to a science, but the rest of his game is very raw. He is just way too weak to be an effective ACC player at this point.

- In the UAB game, McAdoo hit quite a few jumpers which was the most promising thing about his performance Saturday. And those jumpers weren't just the typical 10 footers he hits. He showed range out to 18 feet and had to have hit at least 4 or 5. His favorite spot seems to be on the left baseline.

Other than that, McAdoo continues to turn it over a lot - 6 times against the Blazers. Its not that McAdoo makes bad decisions or is a poor ball handler for a big man, I think its mainly because of his lack of strength. He is very soft with the ball in his hands. He gets pushed around inside leaving him off balance and vulnerable to turning it over. Its something that I realized would be a problem last year when watching him rebound. He has a solid frame but the strength and toughness (both mental and physical) isn't there yet.

- In other news, Reggie Bullock has started to put the ball on the floor to create shots. It will never be his game and we are seeing so-so results, but somebody has to step up and its good to see he's trying. Bullock will be a solid pro because of his 3-pt shooting and defense, but being able to keep the defense honest with the rest of his game could help him become a starter at the next level.

- PJ Hairston is still settling for too many jumpers. I'm not sure if injuries have limited his athleticism or lack of conditioning, but he's not as dynamic as he was supposed to be coming out of high school. He's a steaky chucker at this point.

Creighton vs St. Joe's

This game was expected to be closer, but the Blue Jays blew the doors off the Hawks early for the 80-51 win. The first half wasn't pretty for the Hawks, who watched McDermott go off for 17 in about the first ten minutes. Ronald Roberts Jr also had to sit out most of the first half with two fouls.

In the second half, St. Joe's played them much better. St. Joe's should be fine moving forward, one bad half doesn't change their promising outlook that has them favorite to win their conference.

- Some view CJ Aiken as a second round pick this year but I just don't see it. So far he is having a worse season in pretty much every way than the year before. The biggest thing though is he is so skinny. His body hasn't changed at all and his narrow shoulders aren't going to ever allow for much weight. Gregory Echenique  looked twice as wide as him and abused him inside.

Aiken is a very springy athlete and quick laterally. He gets a lot of blocks even when giving up deep post position. He is a Jarvis Varnado kind of defender - except not has long or dominant blocking shots. Aiken also seems interested in playing some small forward, but has no ball skills to speak of. Plus, he is 4-21 from behind the arc this season. I talked about Brice Johnson earlier - Aiken is Brice Johnson in two years if he doesn't gain any weight.

- St. Joe's best prospect in my opinion is actually Ronald Roberts Jr. He didn't have a very good game against Creighton - having as many TOs as points (3), but he is much more of a true post player than Aiken. He has a good feel with his back to the basket and teammates seem to like getting him the ball. They know he will get the ball back to them if he can't get a good shot and he can help them get open looks. He also shows a nice 15 foot jumper and solid footwork. He sports a chiseled frame that can handle added weight and he's been a great rebounder this season.

Roberts won't get enough work inside this season to get noticed, but he could breakout in his senior season. Roberts doesn't have a high ceiling, but he could work his way into the second round or at least a Portsmouth invite next season.

Pittsburgh vs Detroit

For awhile, it looked like Detroit would win this game. They entered the first half up by 8, but Jamie Dixon made some nice adjustments at the half to eventually win the game 74-61. Part of it was slowing down Ray McCallum Jr who had 17 first half points. His first bucket in the second half, a three, didn't come until about ten minutes into play.

- Ive seen McCallum four times this season now, and so far, he's doing his best CJ McCollom impersonation by handling the scoring for Detroit. And really, he's doing it just as good as CJ. Which makes me wonder how some people can list McCollom as a lottery pick yet have McCallum in the second round.

McCallum has proved his jumper can be just as lethal as CJ's and he is just as good at getting it off with his quick release and ankle-breaking crossover move. And with Ray, there is no question about whether he can play point guard at the next level - that is what he does. This season he is just proving he can step into the scoring role and its been a seamless transition. I'm not knocking McCollom, I'm more wondering where the love is for Ray. He is a sure fire first round pick in my opinion that should get consideration in the top 20. Maybe even higher.

- Steven Adams only played 12 minutes and scored 2 points. He had a tough matchup on Minnerath, who is a big man who likes to step out on the perimeter. Adams has gone through the process of getting his feet wet and feeling out the waters. He looked afraid of having the ball int he first few games and now is working in the paint like he actually wants to receive a pass. His 2 points came on a nice post up play where he got nice position and turned quickly over his shoulder for an easy bucket. His teammates looked to get him the ball more, but he didn't do a good job sealing off his position and keeping his defender behind him in the post. Most of the entry passes to him ended up being broken up.

There is no doubt Adams has plenty of work to do and has to become more aggressive getting the ball and using his body. This goes for rebounding too. Adams should be a beast on the boards, but his skills look very poor at this point. He doesn't react quickly, struggled to catch the ball, and doesn't hold onto the ball well when he does. He rarely rebounds outside his area.

If there is one thing Adams needs to prove he can do this season, its rebound. Scouts will be patient with the rest of the game.

Speaking of scouts, Sam Presti was on hand for the Pitt vs Detroit game. He has a reason to be looking at Adams as OKC owns Toronto's probable lottery pick. Presti is always looking for a big enforcer inside and Adams is right down his alley. Presti also had to like the scoring he saw out of McCallum and Talib Zanna's continued success. Zanna's play so far definitely warrants a second round pick.

All-American Doug McDermott

After playing alongside Harrison Barnes in high school, Doug McDermott is used to being overlooked. He was a solid big man alongside Barnes that did the little things. His play was admired, but not celebrated. His teammate Barnes was being compared to Kobe Bryant. Nobody was comparing McDermott to Larry Bird.

Barnes left North Carolina to be a lottery pick over the summer and now finally McDermott has a chance for the spotlight. He went into this season as the top returning scorer in college basketball and one of the favorites to win National Player of the Year. His team is no longer underlooked either - they look to be a legitimate top 15, maybe even top 10 team.

Now McDermott has expectations. His game will be placed under a microscope. All of this, yet Im not sure fans understand what his game is all about.

McDermott is an outstanding shooter, hitting over 48% from deep last year. But that shouldn't define his game. If anything, the mystique of his shooting ability may be overrated, which in turn underrates what all he brings to the table.

McDermott only made 1.5 3-pt shots per game last year. He's far from a product of his father's system. He's far from a one trick pony that runs around screens all day to get him open looks. He's not one of those leading NCAA scorers playing on a high possession team or a team that doesn't win. He doesn't take bad shots and he isn't even the focus of the offense. 

His dad isn't the coach of Grinnell College and McDermott isn't Jack Taylor. McDermott is a basketball player and one of the best in the country.

All in all, McDermott is different from your average NCAA scoring leader.

Despite his preseason accolades, its time for him to get credit for all he does. None of it is circumstantial - he is legitimately one of the best players in the country. He is. I'm not sure people really believe that when they place him on All-American teams.

First of all, McDermott is a heck of a post player. That is his bread and butter in the college game. Around 3 shots per game come from deep, but plenty more come from inside the paint (nearly 3 quarters). McDermott is a relentless worker in the post, never allowing the opponent to catch him relaxed and at mercy of being pushed around. McDermott is the aggressor and takes it to the opponent before they can take it to him. He sprints down the court as if there is a sale on prime real estate near the rim each and every time.

McDermott gets to the line and is doing his best job at it this year. He's getting to the line nearly 7 times this year in only 29 minutes. He does an excellent job drawing contact and does an even better job at finishing through it. He displays great body control and is able to use his body to get his short shots at the rim off against longer defenders. He absorbs the contact, shows great concentration on the rim, and has great touch with either hand. The biggest thing may be his competitiveness - he is not going to be denied getting the rim.

McDermott can score through the Hansbrough method, but also has great footwork in the paint and a high skill level. Consistently finishing up and unders, hook shots, and occasionally a turnaround jumper, McDermott is one of the most skilled post players in the country. And one of the most true.

All this talk about stretch forwards and McDermott's transition to the SF in the pros, yet McDermott is a pure power forward at Creighton. Its a huge part of his game. He relishes the contact and the physicality inside. He rebounds well despite his 6-8 wingspan and his shortcomings athletically. His feel for the power forward position is outstanding and would be tough to take away at the next level.

He shows great feel in the paint without the ball - not just with his constant work to get open in the post, but coming around screens and finding the soft area of the defense. His savvy knowledge of how to get open combined with his constant fight to get open equates to him getting good looks. Simple really. 

Creighton's offense is one of the best in the country and very fun to watch. In a lot of ways, McDermott is just another player. He almost looks like a role player with the way he has to scrap on offense. He doesn't have a large amount of plays for him and he scraps at the hoop. He crashes the offensive glass, runs the court in transition, really, he does just about everything to get the ball in the hoop. There is a lot that goes into McDermott scoring 23 points per game and the biggest thing is hustle. I'd say he gets half of his points off hustle, but then again, his scoring ability is testament to his motor. 

Getting through a McDermott article without touching much on his shooting is actually quite easy. Its not his game. He shot over 60% from the field last year. That is truly remarkable. There is so much about McDermott's game you are missing out on if you just assume he is a shooter. 

And there will be so much about his game in the pros that you will miss out on if you treat him just as a spot up threat. 

Herein lies the hard part - what to make of McDermott's pro potential.

And with that, I'm out. Somethings are just more fun to watch unfold.