Upside and Shabazz Muhammad - Its Not An Age Thing

Its been a wild season for Shabazz Muhammad. He started off by injuring his shoulder and missing a month of practice to begin the year. At the same time, he was the victim of a wild goose chase by the NCAA that resulted in him missing the first 3 games of the season. As expected, UCLA and him got off to a rusty start, but the rust never wore off. Both he and UCLA had flashes of greatness, but their season culminated in a Round of 64 loss tonight to Minnesota.

Thats not all that happened today, though. It also turns out that Shabazz Muhammad is a year older than he was believed to be (read the LA Times article here). Shabazz is actually a 20 year old freshman, which sounds bad, but it isn't the real concern. Ben McLemore, Kaleb Tarczewski, Semaj Christon, Jahii Carson, and Anthony Bennett are also 20 year old freshman. Jakarr Sampson will be 20 in a couple of days. Age is just a number and it is less and less relevant the older you get.

But as a high schooler, age does matter. Shabazz made a name for himself by being tabbed as a kid "physically advanced" for his age and molded his game around his strength. Unlike some of the other guys listed, Shabazz received much of his hype because of his advanced build for his age. Its never been his skillset, quickness, or shooting that has drawn an interest in Shabazz. Its been his ability to bully kids his age. Or so we thought they were his age.

This wouldn't be as much of an issue if Shabazz came out this college season and backed up his billing as the top high school recruit in the country against college players. But he didn't. And now that there is an asterisk next to him being the top recruit in his class, its even more of a reason to take this season at face value instead of making excuses for him.

After his injury and suspension, there was a timeframe everyone gave Shabazz to get up to speed. He looked a little slow and rusty and that was expected. But as the season grew on, the same Shabazz from the beginning of the year remained. There he was getting beat off the dribble time and time again and he showed little ability to handle the ball. In terms of passing or making his teammates better, there was none of that. And then there was the fit he threw when Larry Drew II made a game winning shot.

But whether he was 19 or 20, Shabazz was still going to be a top high school recruit and he still did finish second among all NCAA freshman in scoring. His strength is still impressive no matter his age. I do think the age thing makes a difference slightly in terms of his placement in the final high school class rankings, which also takes away a slight amount of hype going into this year. And as far as hype, thats what carried him through much of this season.

Lets forget about the age thing though, thats far from the most important part of the story. Everyone wants to brush off him being a year older and thats fine, sure thats not a huge deal. A good player will be a good player in the end. But its the rest of his background that deserves a second look. The character issues that the LA Times article brings up are more relevant than the age discussion.

To me, his age doesn't limit his upside at all. But the fact that he's been bred to be a NBA player his whole life does. He's had top notch training, coaching, and an environment surrounding him that was designed to help him succeed. His dad made sure he got on the best AAU teams and one of the best high school programs in the country.

He made sure that he was surrounded by players that made him look better. At Bishop Gorman, Shabazz dominated kids with his size and strength while getting plenty of looks in transition. When he went to UCLA, he joined a team with two great unselfish ball handlers, weak rebounding bigs who spread the floor, another incoming freshman who could shoot the lights out, and a coach that caters to his stars. The combination of things helped to hide Shabazz's lack of ball handling skills, outside shooting, and gave him room to operate inside and crash the boards. His coach, Ben Howland, had loss control of previous teams and would let Shabazz do whatever he wanted with no consequences.

With all the elite training he's had and all the high level games he played in high school/AAU, Shabazz has been tested for years. Its not his advanced age that makes his upside more limited, its his advanced background. Shabazz has played in more big games thanks to high school/AAU than most college juniors and seniors. And he's had the correct training, diet, and everything else that NBA players have the whole way through.

Meanwhile, you have a guy like Ben McLemore whose family struggles to put food on the table for him.

You hear questions about McLemore's ability to be a go to guy and people asking why he disappears in big games and forget he's only a freshman. And if you look at McLemore's background you will see that he wasn't a hyped up recruit since his freshman year. He didn't play on a big AAU or high school team until his final season of high school. And even then he still went to a home each night wondering if he would have food to eat. Point is, McLemore is just getting used to all the limelight which shouldn't be a surprise. He's only a freshman. But with all the AAU games and such nowadays, there are freshman that have been built up for college for years. Shabazz is one of them - McLemore is not.

Still through all of that, its been McLemore who has had the better year. McLemore is a guy who was under the radar until late in his high school career. He redshirted at Kansas as he was only a partial qualifier, improved his game even more, and is now at a point where he is a top 5 pick. He's gotten significantly better each of the past 3 or 4 years. The more and more exposure to the game and coaching he is receiving, the better he is getting. Once he gets to the NBA, he will have luxuries of training and dieting that he has never been exposed to that can take his game to an even higher level.

Then you have Shabazz who has been exposed to all of these luxuries for years. He's been considered a top player in his class since he made the varsity team at Bishop Gorman as a freshman. Yet he really hasn't made big strides as a player from year to year. He's still a poor ball handler and his shooting is just now finally starting to get better. His peers have gotten a step closer to him year after year.

I thought it was interesting how they mentioned Shabazz's older sister in the article as well, who signed an endorsement contract in tennis at age 17 and turned pro. She's now 21 and still has advanced any further. She received the same benefits that Shabazz did as a kid and because of this, she appeared to be more prepared at age 17 to turn pro than most kids are her age. But at the same time, she had already received so much professional training as a kid that there just wasn't much upside left. Her parents made sure they squeezed every ounce of talent they could get out of her already.

The same can be said for Shabazz. Just how much more does he have to grow? Just how good is he? Physically, players will continue to catch up to him. Skill-wise, players have already surpassed him. Shabazz's competitiveness, confidence, and will to score will be traits that he can fall back on though. He will always be a great competitor and he will always have a physical edge on players - just not as much as he was when he earned his reputation as the super senior high schooler in the country. 

Shabazz Muhammad vs Jamaal Franklin

In a battle against dynamic shooting guards, the elder Jamaal Franklin came out on top of the highly touted Shabazz Muhammad. Experience prevailed over youth in the game as well, as UCLA fell to San Diego State 78-69. UCLA hung with SDSU through the first half, but the Aztecs got hot from deep to bury UCLA in the second half. Franklin finished with 28 points and Shabazz had 16.

This was my second look at Franklin this year. The first time was on a boat against Syracuse's 2-3 zone which wasn't an ideal situation to scout him. Franklin struggled badly to get anything going in that game and had a lot of bad turnovers. Last night, Franklin had a much easier time against UCLA's version of the 2-3 zone, as one would expect.

Early on Franklin acted as a facilitator and did a nice job getting his teammates involved with some quality finds. His teammates didn't help him out much by converting (Franklin finished with only 3 assists), but his 1/2 A/TO ratio doesn't illustrate how he played. In fact, this was one of the best games I've seen Franklin play. He was under control for the most part and played with a lot of fire.

He got hot at the end of the 1st half from 3 and ended up looking for his own shot more in the second half. He chucked quite a few 3s in the final 20 minutes, but nothing out of his role. SDSU needs him to be an aggressive scorer. Franklin cooled off quickly from 3 though, and finished 3-10 from deep on the night.

The rest of Franklin's game consisted of him taking advantage of defenders closing out on him for the 3 and him driving past them. Franklin doesn't have the surest handles in traffic and turns it over a fair amount. He's a guy who could benefit from learning to slow his game down, but probably won't ever get there. He definitely has the capabilities to make spectacular plays throughout the game.

Franklin could be a good player at the next level if he isn't asked to do too much. He is a great athlete, can shoot the ball, create his shot a bit, and finish in transition. He also has good court vision but can be careless passing the ball.

He's a guy who could give a coach headaches, but from all reports, Coach Fisher loves coaching him and raves about his work ethic. His competitiveness and intensity was certainly on display last night and he took on the challenge of defending Shabazz Muhammad. Franklin is a guy who carries a chip on his shoulder and you could tell he wanted to prove that he is the better player.

For one night, he was.

Shabazz struggled for most of the game, despite finishing with 16 points. Jamaal Franklin has a problem with always driving left and its a similarity Shabazz shares as well. Shabazz has had to work very hard for his points this year. He's been forced to run the court in transition and try to muscle shots up in the post instead of creating his offense from the halfcourt on the perimeter.

Part of this is because he is rushing things. Another part is him trying to be too perfect. A bigger part may be that Shabazz just isn't that skilled. The only thing Shabazz has proven to do very well at this point is bully smaller guards.

When you have the athletic ability that Shabazz has, you can slow the game down and force players to play at your pace. You don't need to make hasty decisions as soon as the ball to catch the defense out of position. Shabazz needs to take his time more, measure the defense up in triple threat position, and plan how to attack. He should be able to drive by defenders in isolation sets. If he can't, then it is time to re-evaluate his pro potential.

We aren't at that point yet.

Shabazz looked very average through most of the game, but in the final couple of minutes he finally started to attack from the perimeter. He hit a jumper coming off a screen. He got all the way to the basket. He broke a defender down for a nice floater. That floater is something that he showed off multiple times in the game. He has good touch on it and gets it off quickly - almost flicking it at the basket.

Defensively, Shabazz is still struggling. He looks off balance in his defense stance and was beaten lateral on a few occasions.

Player to Monitor

There was a freshman point forward in this game who has potential to be a first rounder and his name isn't Kyle Anderson. While Anderson has looked like a 4 year player this whole season - looking even slower than advertised and not making enough plays to make up for it - Winston Shepard has looked like a solid prospect.

Shepard can cover multiple positions well (unlike Anderson who can't cover any) and really played great defense last night. He also got the offense into some sets and looked like a potential leader down the road. I like how he can get into the lane and maintain control. He can dribble it in the mid-range area where his height allows him to see over bigs to make easy passes to teammates or take a short jumper himself. Shepard needs his production to come along and he should be in school for at least another year or two, but in my opinion, he's a better prospect than Anderson.

The Barclay's Curse? Legend Classic Doesn't Live Up to Name

Do not be alarmed. The Legends Classic brought 4 good games of basketball to Barclays Center over the past two days. It was a great showcase of talent and solid field. Indiana ended up living up to their number one ranking while winning an exciting overtime thriller against Georgetown.

But LEGENDS?

This tournament brought us our first look at Shabazz Muhammad, a potential first overall selection. But he struggled along with the rest of the UCLA team.

It also featured Cody Zeller, another contender for the number one position. Indiana took home the trophy, but Zeller looked very human in the process. He struggled to create separation in the post and with his 6-10 wingspan, those shots will end up getting blocked in the NBA.

Neither player took a step towards the "legend" platform. These games only brought up more questions.

Both players had a chance to grab an early lead in the wide open race for the first overall pick. This year is the most open race since the 2006 draft when Andrea Bargnani went first and its looking like it could stay that way.

In recent years, the number one guys all started off with a hot start to drive up the hype train - Davis, Irving, Wall, and Griffin.

I've never looked at Zeller as a great option first overall and figured someone would step up early. So far, that hasnt happened.

There were some quotes from NBA executives after the Monday Night's slate of games at Barclay's that summed up this thinking.

Essentially, scouts think this will be a draft where the top teams would rather have multiple picks later on in the first instead of in the top 5. The choice at number one could depend on which team is picking - different from years past where there has been a consensus best player.

More players could enter the mold for number one. Nerlens Noel is certainly in the discussion, but failed to impress in his college debut, also at Barclay's.

It seems that Barclay's got its NBA team, but is in no hurry to push the next era of superstars to the next level. Perhaps the arena wants to try to delay their NBA dreams a few years, just like their dream of hosting a NBA franchise was delayed.

Call it the Barclay's Curse.

Disclaimer: I don't believe in curses. 

Shabazz makes debut, but the Hoyas Get the Win

The atmosphere was set at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn for UCLA, ready to unveil its star recruit Shabazz Muhammad against unranked Georgetown. Shabazz came off the bench for Howland, who has to give a lot of credit to the star recruit for perhaps saving his job, and the crowd creeped towards the edge of their seats to get a look at the future NBA lottery pick.

The script was set for UCLA (favored by 6) to get the win and put themselves back on the map. After the Sports Illustrated article last year, Howland was ready to start a new chapter for UCLA, a chapter that involved high character kids including other prized recruit Kyle Anderson. Georgetown got off to the early lead, but when Shabazz came off the at just under 14 minutes, the lead was only 4. Shabazz came in and pulled up for his first shot - a mid-range jumper - and it went straight through the hoop.

14-12 Georgetown - here comes UCLA.

Georgetown was being outscored in transition and on the break - two indicators that the Bruins could start to pull away. The biggest indicator though, was #15 in blue.

The country didn't know this Georgetown team though. They matched up well with the Bruins, sporting two big wings of their own in Greg Whittington and Otto Porter. The Hoyas play the way the Bruins need to play. They share the basketball and allow their 6-8 versatile forward, Otto Porter, to help facilitate the offense. UCLA, with their own 6-8 point forward in Kyle Anderson, had an up close look how it was done.

Greg Whittington was hot early. He was stepping out and hitting jumpers and gave Shabazz his first "welcome to the NCAA moment". Shabazz had an attempt on the break and went straight at Whittington - only to get hung up in the air as Whittington prevented the shot from getting out of his hands.

It wasn't the last time Shabazz landed on the floor and got in the mix in the painted area. Otto Porter was able to post him up down low for a couple of buckets. Shabazz returned the favor against Georgetown's small Jabril Trawick, hitting a close range turnaround jumper in his face. Shabazz went hard to the hoop each time he had the chance and probably has the bruises to show for it. He attacks the rim with a fearlessness much like a Dwyane Wade.

His debut was viewed as a bit of a disappointment for NBA scouts, but keep in mind he had only had a few days of practice due to a high ankle sprain. He poured in 15 points effortlessly in 25 minutes, showcasing a nice stroke from outside. Muhammad's release is effortless and he doesn't have much extra movement in his shot. He struggled on defense, but covering guys like Otto Porter is a big change from his days in high school. He mainly was beat defending the post.

UCLA has their work cut out for them defensively. This UCLA team shouldn't go the way of teams in the past because their freshman are high character guys, but the defense should be a major concern. When UCLA went to three straight final fours, their defense was top 3 in the nation each year. This years team has work to do to even be average.

For one, its tough to get a group of new players to learn to play cohesive as a team. With a bunch of freshman and transfer Larry Drew, they have to get used to each other. Even then, guys like Adams, Drew, and Anderson aren't good perimeter defenders. And inside, the Wear twins are good post defenders but dont make anyone think twice about driving the lane. Neither does the immobile Josh Smith who defines the phrase "below the rim center". He also defines a waste of potential, but we will save that for a rainy day.

Without that defense, UCLA may have to turn to a higher octane offense and go in a different direction from teams of the past. It seems Howland may already be doing that if the pace of their game today is any indicator. This Bruins team may look to run and it'd certainly be a good fit. Teams of the past played a strict halfcourt style that often limited the teams guards, resulting in them getting overlooked in the NBA Draft.

With a host of good guards this year and a unconventional Kyle Anderson, the Bruins could maximize their potential and hide their defensive holes by running. With Howland's job possibly on the brink, its within the realm to imagine him changing up his style.

As for Georgetown, their famous style is working just fine. I talked about them earlier this season calling them a sleeper, so this game comes as little surprise to me. Porter and Whittington are a special combo that when paired together creates major problems for opponents. The Hoyas can play them at the wing positions and overwhelm the opposition with size on defense and not suffer on offense.

The biggest question with them is their ability to hit the outside shot. Whittington was 1-8 on the year before going 3-4 tonight. His shot looks solid though, and I did see him hit some long 2-pt baskets in his other games. As for Porter, he rarely looks for the jumper but made both of his 3s tonight. He doesn't get off a lot of jumpers and has a slow release, bringing the ball down to his hip before firing.

Porter finished with 18 points and filled up the rest of the stat sheet with steals, blocks, assists, and rebounds. You can't help but to love his game. He is one of the best all around players in college basketball and perhaps the best at contributing to wins in ways other than scoring. This makes him invaluable at the college level and very intriguing at the next level. The NBA doesn't necessarily need guys who can score.

Still, Porter's biggest question will revolve around how he can score at the next level. Porter gets a lot of his baskets off cuts, transition, putbacks, and post up plays. As a small forward, Porter needs to show at least either a jumper or the ability to drive the lane consistently and finish. And his jumper is broken right now.

Porter also is a bit slow on his feet, yet his outstanding feel for the game tends to make up for it. Scouts in general came away impressed with him tonight, but this is just a typical game for Mr. Porter.

The high point man in this game was actually UCLA's Jordan Adams. He's been a pleasant surprise this season and wasn't going to take a back seat to Muhammad tonight. He jacks up shots at a high rate, prompting Jonathan Givony to make a Jordan Hamilton comparison.

Obviously, he probably didn't mean it as a comparison on their games too, but I think Adams is a lot better college player than Hamilton was his freshman year. Hamilton's freshman year consisted of a comical amount of ridiculous 3-pt attempts and not much else.

Adams loves his jumper the same way, but shows a lot more intelligence on both ends of the court. He is a better driver, has good instincts on when to cut, plays tough inside, and seems to really want to win. His body control is worlds better than Hamilton's. He has a great natural touch on his shots and is automatic from the free throw line.

In terms of NBA stock though, his potential is much less intriguing than Hamilton's. He plays below the rim and his body dimensions are very unusual for a shooting guard. Along with being a chucker, Adams has some obstacles to climb over if he wants to be a first round pick anytime soon.

Sleeper Alert: Tyler Honeycutt

Tyler Honeycutt ranks 24th and 25th on ESPN's and Draftexpress's big board respectively. If you ask me, he should be in the lottery discussion.

Skill, size, and athleticism. Those are three major checkpoint when looking at a prospect. Honeycutt has them all.

Note: All stats are per 40 minutes pace adjusted.

Honeycutt has been praised for his all-around game, although he is knocked because he doesn't do one thing that stands out. Keep in mind that he is only a sophomore, though, and not having a key weakness is a big deal. His shot has a ton of potential. He has a smooth, compact stroke with great elevation. He is one of my favorite players in this draft to watch shoot. He went from only taking 1.6 threes a game as a freshman to taking 5.2 this season. This improvement seems to go unnoticed as his stock has failed to rise from the beginning of the year. His stroke is effortless and NBA range is already there. He shot 36.2% from three this year and should only get better.

His passing ability also shows good signs. He actively looks to get teammates involved, which is good since he will be a complementary scorer in the NBA, but in college, he was way to passive. His tentativeness saw him hesitate on open shots and resulted in him trying to force many bad passes. He has great vision, but he tries way too hard to get his teammates involved. If he had a scorer's attitude, he could have put up some impressive numbers this year.

You can't ignore his mindset, but I would expect it to get better with age. He improved his shot last year, and at 20 years old, he should continue to get better at knowing what to do with the ball. Its not like he has a bad feel for the game - as I said, he makes plenty of good passes too and shows excellent awareness on the defense end. He is just too passive right now. His game gets compared to Tayshaun Prince and I see similar things in their character too. Like Prince, his style should end up fitting in better with NBA guys. Repetitions and familiarity will also help.

The complexity of UCLA's offense sure doesn't help either. We saw it with Russell Westbrook and Jrue Holiday - playing off the ball on the wing in Howland's offense isn't ideal. Especially for great athletes like all of them were. What makes Honeycutt's situation even worse is point guard play. Westbrook and Holiday had the luxury of playing with Collison. UCLA had no point guard this year. Honeycutt ended up second to Lazeric Jones on the team for assists and Jones only had 3.6 per game.

Honeycutt shot only 40.6% from the field this year, but it doesn't speak for the kind of player he is. In the faster pace game of the NBA, he should be able to use his athleticism to get out for some easy transition buckets. Look at Honeycutt for what he has to offer. He is the complete package of athleticism and skills. How many other guys in this draft have that?

I don't think his athleticism is appreciated enough due to his passiveness and UCLA's style. Check him out on defense if you want a real representation. He's had some LeBron James-esque chase down blocks (or Tayshaun Prince circa 2004 ECF if you will). Last year, he showed off his ability to get steals to the tune of 2.2 a game and then decided to switch his interest to blocking shots this season (2.3 a game). If you need some proof of his leaping ability, you can check out this dunk too.

Ok, so we know he has the athleticism, size, and skill set for a small forward. His mindset isn't ideal, but there aren't red flags due to it either. He sounds like a lottery pick, right?

His turnovers are his biggest problem, but if you listen to John Hollinger, it can be viewed as a good thing. History shows that young wings with high turnovers can be a positive indicator. Last year, Honeycutt ranked 5th in turnovers per possession. Two spots below him was Darius Morris, arguably the most improved player in the country. Honeycutt also has a negative pure point ratio which is a bit of an anomaly for small forwards who rack up assists. His -3.35 PPR is one of the worst among guys with similar assists numbers, but there have been successful small forwards with similar numbers. Manny Harris (his was actually above -5), Hakim Warrick, Paul George, Sonny Weems, and Dominic McGuire all had worse. Caron Butler, Marquis Daniels, Evan Turner, Klay Thompson, Marquis Blakely, Corey Brewer,  Earl Clark, Courtney Lee, and Landry Fields were all worse than -2 as well. A poor pure point ratio doesn't seem to be a bad thing at all if you look at the rest of the list. The most successful players seem to have had trouble in that area.

Workouts are coming up and Honeycutt will have a great opportunity to make a leap ahead of the late lottery to mid-first round pack. Just remember that I called his leap before it happened.

Faried, Honeycutt, Ezeli, and Jenkins with Most to Gain Today

These guys all have a lot to gain from NCAA tournament exposure one way or another. They all have first round potential, but none are a lock at this point. Some need the games to get the hype train rolling enough to enter their name in the draft, others just need a few games to put a good taste in scouts' mouths.


The Senior

Personally, I think Faried is a top 20 pick, and will definitely prove his worth once he reaches the NBA. Its hard to go wrong with the best rebounder in NCAA history. This guy has a great attitude, work ethic, and motor on the court. The complete package. Hard to see him failing. At worst he is a great rebounder off the bench, while he has the potential to be the best thing since Dennis Rodman. He's a great athlete who gets rebounds all over the court and sees it as his job to do so. Rebounding is how he started off getting scoring opportunities, but he has now worked on his game enough to be able to take slower defenders off the dribble and get to the hoop. He should be able to do that in the NBA too, similar to Paul Millsap. He can also be a terror running the court on the fastbreak. A team like the Knicks would be a great fit for him in the teens.


The Underachiever

Tyler Honeycutt is a player that has a whole lot of talent, but has yet to put it together. Some still think, including me, that he is a first rounder even without consistent production. With a few good games in front of NBA talent evaluators, though, he can go from first rounder to late lottery-mid first round. A few good games is all Tyler needs - scouts can easily convince themselves that the way he performed on the biggest stage is a sign of things to come. Plus, seeing a guy like him in person is eye-catching. A few big games from Honeycutt would make me feel comfortable taking him in the teens hoping he becomes the next Tayshaun Prince.

The Big Man

Festus Ezeli is a guy I have touted the entire season, but scouts havent been as high on him. They certainly have seen him plenty with prospects like Jenkins and Taylor playing alongside him. A NCAA tournament run by Vandebilt could help the ball getting role by getting scouts to look at him as a 2011 draft prospect as opposed to next year. He has prototypical center size and lacks a real weakness. At the same time, he isnt particularly strong in any area, although he can be a great defender once he learns to play without fouling. His post game is a work in progress, but he gets the job done with basic post moves. He has a strong base which helps him defending and establishing position in the paint on offense. Solid shot blocker. He has improved a ton since joining the Vanderbilt basketball team and there is still upside. He isnt a freak athlete like some other raw centers, but he is stronger and smarter than most.

The Great College Player

While Kemba Walker, Jimmer Fredette, and Nolan Smith get all the national attention for their scoring abilities, John Jenkins has gone under the radar in the SEC. He has gone from a spot-up shooter, to a guy who can create his own shot. What I like about him is his mental makeup - he doesnt get down when his shot isnt falling, which is a pivotal trait for a shooter. His scoring mentality has enabled him to take the reigns of Vandy's offense instead of deferring to another first rounder prospect, Jeff Taylor. Jenkins is more of a complete offensive player than he gets credit for and also benefits from his stocky frame. A couple of big nights in the NCAA tournament will get people talking and could translate into him declaring for the draft this year. If not, he will be in prime position to take over as one of the faces of college basketball next year.

The Late Bloomer

Justin Harper will be facing that Vanderbilt team and scouts will definitely be tuned in. Harper has slowly been climbing draft boards as the word is spreading about this solid athlete with a great jumper. In a league where each team is in search of a stretch four, Harper will be the guy that can provide it in this draft class. His NCAA performance isnt as big of a deal as just the actual exposure he will receive. Harper is going to be a coveted player in the draft whether he struggles or not. Finding power forwards that shoot like him is a tough task. His climb could be similar to Jason Thompson's climb a few years ago as more scouts got word of him late in the season.