2013 Small Forwards Prospects By the Numbers

A week ago, we took a loot at the point guard prospects by the numbers. Now we will see how the small forward prospects grade out based off the numbers provided by hoop-data.com. I excluded Otto Porter from this study as I view him as the best small forward prospect by a considerable margin.

*For Glen Rice Jr, I used his data from his previous year at Georgia Tech.

% of Shots at the Rim

Carrick Felix - 43%

James Ennis - 35%

Solomon Hill - 27%

Robert Covington - 25%

Shabazz Muhammad - 24%

Glen Rice Jr - 21%

Deshaun Thomas - 20%

Adonis Thomas - 18%

FG% at the Rim

Glen Rice Jr - 76%

Deshaun Thomas - 74%

James Ennis - 72%

Carrick Felix - 71%

Shabazz Muhammad - 65%

Robert Covington - 64%

Solomon Hill - 63%

Adonis Thomas - 62%

% Assisted at the Rim

Adonis Thomas - 58%

Shabazz Muhammad - 58%

Carrick Felix - 56%

Deshaun Thomas - 48%

Robert Covington - 44%

James Ennis - 41%

Glen Rice Jr - 34%

Solomon Hill - 14%

% Shots 2-pt Jumpers

Adonis Thomas - 59%

Shabazz Muhammad - 53%

Deshaun Thomas - 45%

Robert Covington - 40%

Glen Rice Jr - 37%

Solomon Hill - 31%

James Ennis - 24%

Carrick Felix - 19%

FG% 2pt Jumpers

Solomon Hill - 40%

Glen Rice Jr - 40%

Adonis Thomas - 39%

Deshaun Thomas - 39%

Shabazz Muhammad - 37%

Carrick Felix - 34%

James Ennis - 31%

Robert Covington - 25%

% 2-pt Jumpers Assisted

Adonis Thomas - 54%
Shabazz Muhammad - 47%
Deshaun Thomas - 43%
Robert Covington - 41%
Carrick Felix - 32%
Solomon Hill - 23%
Glen Rice Jr - 17%

James Ennis - 14%

% of 3-pt Shots

Solomon Hill - 42%
Glen Rice Jr - 42%
James Ennis - 41%
Robert Covington - 38%
Carrick Felix - 37%
Deshaun Thomas - 35%
Adonis Thomas - 24%
Shabazz Muhammad - 23%

3-pt FG%

Solomon Hill - 39%
Carrick Felix - 38%
Robert Covington - 38%
Shabazz Muhammad - 38%
Deshaun Thomas - 35%
Glen Rice Jr - 34%
James Ennis - 33%
Adonis Thomas - 29%

% of 3-pt Shots Assisted

Shabazz Muhammad - 100%
Carrick Felix - 96%
Deshaun Thomas - 96%
Adonis Thomas - 92%
Robert Covington - 87%
Solomon Hill - 82%
James Ennis - 68%
Glen Rice Jr - 68%

Observations

James Ennis - James Ennis stands out in this group as a finisher which comes to no surprise. He's the best athlete among the 8 prospects and his team pushed the ball with every chance they could get. You can tell that his team lacked any kind of halfcourt structure on offense which forced Ennis to create more than he should have to. Even though Ennis isn't a good ball handler, he was forced to create a large amount of his jumpshots. He does have a quick step back jumper move, but that isnt his game. Playing in a halfcourt setting in the NBA will be a big adjustment for him. He doesn't have a mid-range game and relies on circus shots in the lane. He will have to improve his jumper. He hit 3s at a good rate but his release has to get quicker.

Carrick Felix - Felix is the most similar to Ennis and both of their strengths are more on the defensive end. Felix played in a much more structured offense however, which complimented his strengths well. He didn't have to create at all and while he also lacks a middle game, he wasn't put in a situation where he had to score off the dribble. Like Ennis, he is a real solid finisher at the rim. He has also turned himself into a good spot up 3-pt shooter. I view Ennis as a better prospect than Felix because of his athletic edge and added playmaking ability.

Solomon Hill - Hill is one of the worst finishers at the rim in the group, but makes up for it with his polished mid-range game. He has the best floor game of the group and has the most versatile offensive attack. He doesn't have to get all the way to the rim to score. He also tested out as the best shooter in the group by leading in both 2-pt% and 3-pt% while taking a higher volume of 3s than anyone. He's a good spot up shooter but also can get his shot off the dribble.

Glen Rice Jr - The more you look at Glen Rice Jr, the more you see how much the situation at Georgia Tech prevented him from showing his true potential. Rice Jr had to create almost all his shots at Georgia Tech as he was near the bottom in assisted shots in all 3 categories. He was also the best finisher at the rim and in the mid-range area, despite not having the advantage of getting any easy baskets. The one area Rice Jr doesn't show well here is 3-pt shooting, but he might actually be the best shooter out of the 8. He proved this year in the D-League that he has no problem with the NBA 3-pt line.

Shabazz Muhammad - There is a big concern with Shabazz's ability to get to the rim based off these numbers. He was in the bottom half in terms of % of shots at the rim while receiving more assisted plays at the rim than anyone. Considering Shabazz also scored a lot of offensive rebounds, the numbers prove the Muhammad was unable to put the ball on the floor and get all the way to the rim at UCLA. He also seemed incapable of creating room for his jump shots. All of his 3-pt makes were assisted and he trailed only Adonis Thomas in most 2-pt jumpers assisted. His mid-range game, however, does show promise.

Deshaun Thomas - Thomas didn't really standout in any one category. We know he can shoot the ball, but he didn't shoot it at an exceptional clip. And there is a big concern with his ability to get shots off at the next level. A lot of his shots were assisted and he doesn't really have any reliable moves to get his shot up. As a small forward at the next level, he will struggle to shoot over longer defenders due to his lack of quickness and height. He did convert well at the rim in limited attempts, but that isnt his game.

Adonis Thomas - Thomas' numbers at the rim couldn't be any more. Despite shooting less at the rim than anyone and having the highest percentage of his shots assisted, Thomas still was last in converting at the rim. Thats a red flag and very puzzling for someone with his size and athleticism. These numbers scream lack of aggression. He did fair well in the mid-range area, which passes the eye test when watching him as well. Thomas will also need to improve his range as he shot worse from 3 this year than anyone.

Robert Covington - For a guy his size and playing against the competition he did, Covington really didn't show as well at the rim as you'd like to see. More concerning was his FG% on 2-pt jumpers since he projects to be a jump shooter at the next level. He ranked last in that area by a fair margin. Tennessee State needed a guy who could create shots this season and he proved that he struggled in that area. Still, Covington brings a nice combination of athleticism and outside shooting that could eventually get him into the NBA.

After watching more film on each of these prospects and taking a look at them by the numbers, here are my personal revised rankings:

1. Glen Rice Jr (late lottery to mid-first round)
2. Shabazz Muhammad (mid-first round)
3. Solomon Hill (early second round)
4. Adonis Thomas (early second round)
5. James Ennis (second round)
6. Deshaun Thomas (second round)
7. Carrick Felix (second round to undrafted)
8. Robert Covington (second round to undrafted)

Others worth noting: James Southerland, Rodney Williams, Will Clyburn

The Case For Adonis Thomas

One of the quickest risers in this draft has been Glen Rice Jr. He's a guy who didn't put up very good numbers in college, took a unique route to the D-League, and saw his stock take off in the process. He was a talented player at Georgia Tech, but he just didn't stand out as much as a guy with his talents should. He wasn't always aggressive and his unselfishness was mistaken for passiveness. If he had entered the draft after he was suspended last season, Glen Rice Jr wouldn't have even gotten drafted.

That changed in the D-League where the game is much closer to the NBA. College basketball and the NBA are two completely different games, while the D-League can almost work as a way to bridge the gap between them. With a 24 second shot clock, less offensive sets, quicker pace, and a more open court things are certainly different from college. Players aren't restricted by their teams offensive sets and they are put in a position where they have to be more aggressive. Players can rely more on their physical gifts and instincts. Their versatility is also able to show more.

I already profiled Glen Rice Jr (read here), but Adonis Thomas has similar qualities that could help him be a better fit in the NBA than he was in college. Unlike Rice Jr, Thomas isn't going directly to the D-League however, and is instead choosing to jump right into the draft. And while his stock is down, a GM would be mistaken to sleep on Thomas the same way they slept on Rice Jr because of their situation in college.

The beauty of scouting is to be able to see players in different systems and project their skills to a higher level. Nobody can debate that Thomas or Rice Jr underachieved in college and I'm not trying to do that. I know all the question marks about Adonis Thomas. And a lot of them are the same questions that were brought up about Glen Rice Jr last year.

Like Glen Rice Jr, Adonis Thomas is a very good athlete who often times blended in too much in college. Everyone yearned for him to be more aggressive. When he was, you saw his ability to get all the way to the rim and finish. His ability to get to the rim is even better than Glen Rice Jr's.

Also like Glen Rice Jr, Adonis Thomas has a high basketball IQ and a good feel for the game. He moved well off the ball, made the right passes, and played within his teams offense.

Adonis Thomas is also very versatile and can score in the post, mid-range, and also step out and hit jumpers. You don't see a lot of small forwards doing that in college, but you see plenty more of it in the NBA. The NBA is all about mismatches and Thomas can take advantage of them. Same thing goes for Glen Rice Jr, who was able to show a post game once he got to the D-League.

If Adonis Thomas took the same route as Glen Rice Jr, I don't think there is any question he'd be in the discussion for a first round pick. Some may question his decision to leave Memphis with his stock at an all time low, but it was obvious that the situation at Memphis wasn't a good fit for him. Thomas stuck it out for two years, was professional and a team player throughout, and did what the team wanted him to do.

He played power forward a lot even though he will be a perimeter player at the next level. That has hurt his stock, but it should act as a testament for his willingness to do anything to help his team. Not many former top recruits would willingly play out of position. Thomas even added weight to bang down low, which in turn limited his athleticism. Since the season, he's already started to work on shedding that weight and getting back to the point where he was an elite athlete. He no longer has to focus on playing inside, although the skills he learned playing in the post will be valuable to him.

Thomas also wasn't able to focus on his perimeter shooting in college and thats something I expect him to be able to improve fairly easily with repetition. You've probably been reading this thinking that the biggest difference between Glen Rice Jr and Adonis Thomas is their shooting ability - and you'd be right.

But Thomas did shoot well in a limited number of attempts his freshman season and has always hit the mid-range jump shot well. His his stroke is consistent and his mechanics are consistent (albeit a little slow). Some of the biggest surprises in the draft the past couple of years are guys who were said to be poor shooters - such as Kawhi Leonard and Chandler Parsons - but like Thomas, both of them were asked to do a lot more things around the rim at college. Now that Thomas is able to focus on slimming down and working on his perimeter shooting, he will start to look even more like a prototypical wing prospect.

One thing that Thomas was able to hang his hat on was his defense and that should get even better as he continues to complete his transition to a full time perimeter player. He competes, has a 7 foot wingspan, good strength, a solid motor, and the versatility to be an impact player on that end of the court. He didn't always make as big as an impact as he could have for Memphis, but he will at least be a very solid defender with the potential to be great. Sticking with the comparisons to Glen Rice Jr, Thomas has the better size and frame along with the athleticism.

Adonis Thomas and Glen Rice Jr certainly aren't the same player nor do they possesses the same skill set. But they do both have similar playing styles and a feel for the game that often gets overlooked when evaluating college prospects. Smart team play turns into criticisms about their passiveness. In college, they are looked at to be stars of their teams. Neither did that. But in the NBA, they will be looked at to be another piece of the puzzle that helps you win games. Nobody will be complaining about their passiveness in the NBA nor will they be as passive. Both have great instincts and athleticism and will be able to utilize those abilities much more freely.

Adonis Thomas is currently projected by some analysts not to get drafted which is a complete oversight and overreaction to someone they once considered a lottery pick. While his lack of production warrants concern and a drop in his stock, there is still plenty of reason to believe he can be a successful NBA player. Unlike a lot of big time athletes who leave early without much production, Thomas isn't a guy with an unrealistic view of himself nor does he have any character concerns. He's actually a pretty cerebral player. And while I am not vouching that he should be a lottery pick as he was once projected, he deserves late first round consider and should definitely be off the board at the top of the second round where contracts aren't guaranteed.

For more on Adonis Thomas, check out my scouting report on him following his freshman season http://nbaprospects.blogspot.com/2012/08/scouting-report-adonis-thomas.html

Scouting Report: Adonis Thomas

Height: 6'6''
Weight: 240lbs
Wingspan: 7'0''
Bday: 3/25/1993

Team: Memphis
Class of 2015

Adonis Thomas came to Memphis as a top 10 recruit in the nation even though he was seen as a guy stuck between the 3 and the 4. He chose to stay local and was willing to accept whatever role Memphis threw him into. The role for his freshman season was power forward. Thomas was able to put on over 20 pounds prior to the season to prepare for the season, going from a respectable 207 pounds to a beastly 230 pounds in order to handle battling inside with taller foes. Injuries took away the majority of his in conference season, but he is back for his sophomore year to prove he can produce for an entire season. He never did get a chance last year to perform consistently so this is a big year for him. With Shaq Goodwin coming in and Witherspoon and Will Barton off to pursue pro careers, Thomas should become more of a perimeter player this season.

Thomas is the kind of player that is able to play many different roles and positions for a ball club. You can say that about a handful of players, but it is rare to see a player that is able AND willing. Even more rare when you are looking at a McDonald's All-American player. The intangibles for Thomas, who is also a great student, defines Thomas as a player. He is a great character guy, works hard, and is willing to do all the little things to help his team win.

His freshman year was a testament to everything high school scouts raved about. Thomas battled consistently inside at power forward. He relished the role and played as much like a true power forward as he could. He battled in the post, set screens for the guards, and was always sure to box his man out. He used his strength and outstanding base on defense to handle other big men in the post.

On offense, Thomas stays in his lane. He lets the game come to him, but when he gets the ball in the mid-range area, he looks to attack. The mid-range game is his bread and butter right now. He has improved his mid-range jumper to a point where it is a weapon. His shot can be a little flat at times, but it looks for the most part. His jumper is able to open up room for the drive, although with his great first step, it was rare that forwards could stay in front of him anyway.

When driving, Thomas stayed under control and was able to shift his body just enough to avoid picking up charges. He showed advanced footwork - showing off a good feel for the Euro-step - and ability to maneuver in traffic. His great first step and subsequent dribbles combined with his frame and steady handles makes him a force attacking from mid-range - and Thomas knows this. He loves the face-up drive from 15 feet in. The question that has to be asked is how Thomas can adapt doing similar moves from the perimeter, where his shiftiness will need to go from good enough to above average.

Around the rim, Thomas's explosiveness and strength aid him yet again. But he doesn't strictly rely on that. He can hook the ball over his outside shoulder and also does a great job of using the rim to protect the ball. Just as with his dribble, Thomas isn't super fancy, but he has just enough creativeness to get the job done effectively.

Overall, his mid-range game is where he is most comfortable at right now and he has no problem staying within 15 feet while the guards dance around the perimeter. He constantly works to get post position and sneak into passing lanes to receive the ball. He works so hard no matter what - a lot of times Thomas didn't get a lot of touches but there was never a drop off in his play or any discontent expressed with his body language. While Thomas is an aggressive attacker in mid-range, he is a very unselfish player in the sense that he will always do whatever his team needs him to do. There is no "I" in Thomas's play.

His post game also has potential and he is received valuable experience last year as one of Memphis' "go-to post threats". I use that term very loosely as Memphis runs more like an AAU team, but Thomas still got a chance to focus on his back to the basket game. When facing away from the hoop, Thomas uses his frame to carve out room inside and presents a good target to throw to. His long arms are able to retrieve any pass within his range. You can tell Thomas enjoyed posting up in high school because he already has some decent post moves for a future NBA small forward. This part of his game should develop to a point where it is worth mentioning even as a perimeter player. Thomas will be one of the dying bread of NBA perimeter players who can work out of the post. While his post game isn't deadly, the fact that he has one is a plus.

Offensively, Thomas plays more like a power forward than small forward. At least, last year he did. He doesn't create much offense for him or other teammates. He can move the ball, but his negative A/TO reflects the way he played. Thomas stays in his zone and will take his shot if he is within his comfort zone (mid-range), but on the perimeter he rarely looks to make a play. He has shown continued improvement in his 3-pt shooting and it looks like that can actually turn into a strength down the road.

The fact that Thomas has a tweener offensive game isn't really worrisome. On offense, players can be interchangeable and versatility should be viewed as a good thing. Tweeners are only a problem when they are in between positions on defense. And that is not the case with Thomas.

With his 7-ft wingspan, excellent motor, strength, good awareness, and solid lateral quickness Thomas has everything it takes to defend small forwards at a plus level and perhaps even at an All-Defensive level. He is a pest on the ball and does a great job staying low. He has no problem fighting through screens but his versatility allows him to switch on screens if needed. He can legitimately guard three positions on the court. He also isn't much of a risk taker. Thomas stays in his own lane and focuses on stopping his man. That is not to say he lacks awareness - he has a good feel on the defensive end and provides help defense - it just means he doesn't gamble. That can partially explain his low steal and block numbers. The zone that Memphis employed also had a good deal to do with it. Regardless, Thomas doesn't appear to be a big threat blocking shots and it would be nice to see his steal/block numbers reflect his athleticism a bit more next season.

The same thing can be true for his rebounding. Thomas pulled down only 5.2 rebounds per 40 minutes, while his ultra skinny teammate, Will Barton, had 8.8 per game credited to his name. This can draw questions about his hands (he has strong hands but are they soft?), but I think part of it can be attributed to his unselfishness. Thomas often would tip rebounds to his teammates. Still, the numbers he put up are a little surprising for the kind of player he is. A super athletic player who played inside, had great strength, boxed out on each shot, and never took a play off couldnt put up good rebounding numbers?I would have expected him to over 10 rebounds per 40 minutes at the power forward position. In the end though, I doubt poor rebounding is going to be a weakness used against him come draft time. His job in the NBA will be to keep his opposing player from hitting the offensive glass and with his determination to box out, he will have no problem getting that done.

When projecting Thomas to the future, there is reason to believe he has a very high ceiling. To me though, he is actually one of the safest picks in the lottery while not possessing NBA First Team potential. I just don't ever see him being a prolific scorer from a skill standpoint or from an attitude standpoint. Think Marvin Williams. They are different players, but both are very unselfish, great character guys, who played a smaller role in college but their tools project them to be stars in the NBA. In reality, they played smaller roles because that is their style and neither of them were much of shot creators. Thomas is comfortable playing a role. Shot creating can be improved, but rarely do players make drastic improvements after they are drafted.

Still with what Thomas gives you, you are looking at a good to a great starter who can be somewhat of a super role player. He does all the little things and has no problem doing them. He has great character and great work ethic. He is good in transition. He is versatile. He can space the floor. He is a very smart player and a potential stopper on defense. He is a winner and his game translates well to games played in May and June. He is a guy you draft, plus him in at the wing, and don't ever worry about him again. While he doesn't make his teammates better with his creating ability, he makes the TEAM better with everything else he can do. I see Thomas as a mid to late lottery pick this year.