Stock Attack: Mason Plumlee

Every year there are a couple of players that jump out at me as extremely overrated and Mason Plumlee headlines that list in 2013. He's been projected in the lottery, even top 10, all season long and still sits in the lottery discussion today. His stock looks more unstable now with Gorgui Dieng getting a lot of recognition and Steven Adams deciding to enter the draft, but there is still a strong belief that Plumlee will be a solid third big man.

Personally, I've never seen it with him. I've said all season long that Gorgui Dieng is the better prospect and still stand by it. Dieng makes fewer mental mistake, can consistently hit jumpers, and is a bigger presence at the rim.

Scouts like Mason Plumlee because he has improved every year. Thats one way at looking at it. But I see a guy who vastly underachieved his first few seasons given his situation and athleticism. Name me a Duke player who hasn't made big strides under Coach K. Look at how Nolan Smith is looking in the NBA.

This year Mason Plumlee did look much better, in part because he was more aggressive. He wasn't afraid of going to the foul line anymore since his shooting at the line improved.

History says that seniors that improve a lot their final year aren't to be trusted and the eye test gives similar concerns. If it takes you four years to put it together at a school like Duke when you have great athleticism, that sends up some major red flags. Coach K consistently gets the most out of his players, gets them drafted higher than they should be, and then we hear all about how Duke can't produce NBA players. Yet time and time again everyone falls into the trap of Coach K's magic.

Of course, evaluating prospects is a still a case by case basis. While Plumlee has his age and school as red flags, that is no way to determine if a guy is overrated. But when you watch Plumlee play, the amount of mental mistakes he makes throws up yet another red flag.

Then you get to talking about his position. Is he a power forward or a center? His mechanical style, lack of lateral quickness, smarts, or shooting ability suggest that he can't play power forward well. But as a center, his narrow hips and 6'10 wingspan are both major deterrents. You can improve your upperbody strength all you want, but genetically small hips are a different story.

But what about his offensive game, you say? He did put up over 17ppg in the ACC. But what translates? He isn't hitting jumpers at a consistent rate. He constantly got pushed out of good post position on the block due to lack of strength. Plumlee did show off an improved post game this year and as I said, his aggressiveness didn't hurt either. But his post game is still very mechanical. There is no rhyme or reason to his moves. He makes a lot of awful plays the end of successful because of his athleticism and new found confidence. Take away some of that confidence he gained from this season and you are back to a passive player without much else. And its a fact that his confidence will take a hit once he reaches the NBA - it happens to most players.

Plumlee's post moves consist of a nice right handed hook shot and then a lot of freestyle. A lot of stuff he won't get away with at the next level. He can't freestyle his way to the rim in the pros from post position 15 feet out. The help defense is too good.

It is really hard to pinpoint what Plumlee's strengths will be at the next level. Is it his defense or offense? Is he just a good all-around player or a player who isnt good at anything?

I've been leaning towards the latter side so much that I've fallen over. And based of Mason Plumlee's lack of balance, he better be careful he doesn't bust and fall on his face as well.

Duke vs Davidson

Duke vs Davidson

You can call this one the Curry Bowl as Seth Curry faces his brother's old team for the second time. Personally, I like watching two great coaches go up against each other. Both teams run a lot of sets, play a lot of players, and have a balanced offensive attack. Coach K obviously has more talent at his disposal, but McKillop always does great with what he has.

McKillop does have one solid prospect in De'Mon Brooks. He's the prototype for face up college power forwards these days - possessing very good athleticism, a strong frame, and good ability off the bounce. Him and the rest of Davidson threw off Mason Plumlee's game with their physicality. The brought sneaky double teams on the weakside and forced Duke's big men to make quick decisions - something Plumlee struggled with. Plumlee finished with 6 turnovers and only 10 points on the night.

Ryan Kelly did a much better job dealing with Davidson's aggressive defense. He fought back in the post, played under control, and used their aggressiveness against them. Kelly has a series of ball fakes he uses and a very good feel in the post. He takes his time and is able to get a decent look at the basket whenever he gets a touch. He makes good decisions with the ball and plays good man to man defense as well. You feel comfortable when he has the ball - more comfortable than you'd feel about Mason Plumlee to be honest.

De'Mon Brooks dealt with Duke's height by forcing them to play in space and attacking them off the dribble. He knows how to finish inside, taking the ball right at the chest of bigger defenders. Brooks has good touch with either hand near the rim and stays under control. He also does a nice job utilizing pump fakes as well as a spin move when facing up off the dribble. He thrives as a undersized power forward. Defensively, he is disciplined, strong, and uses his above average length well. He is well coached on that end of the floor and is a very good help defender.

On the perimeter, Duke's guards defended very well tonight - namely Quinn Cook, Rasheed Sulaimon, and Tyler Thornton. Cook has been solid all season since gaining his confidence against Kentucky and stood out tonight. He did a good job getting in the paint and finishing with floaters or kicking it back out on the perimeter.

As for Sulaimon, he filled up the box score with seven rebounds and 6 made free throws. He was only 1-6 from the floor though, despite his aggressive play. He looked to push the ball in transition off of rebounds and did his best work their. In the halfcourt though, he struggled getting all the way to the rim. He has a solid first step, but lacks explosiveness after that. He has to dribble way too much on his way to the rim - at times he will put the ball on the floor for 5 dribbles - the best drivers get to the rim with 2. When you get Sulaimon dancing with the ball on his way to the hoop, turnovers and bad shots are the two most likely outcomes. Sulaimon needs to go back to uses his jumpshot to set up his drives instead of the other way around. He is a good all-around player, but shouldn't feature himself as a pure slasher.

Johnny Dawkins Has Found Himself A Guard

After spending 10 years coaching at Duke from 1998-2008, Johnny Dawkins has spent his last few years on the west coast trying to emulate some of the success at his alma mater. It has been a rough process as Stanford has had marginal success in his four years, finally posting a respectable 69 RPI last season after a strong finish that resulted in the NIT Championship.

Part of the strong finish had to do with freshman guard Chassan Randle, who scored 15 points on 6-11 shooting in the championship game against Minnesota, a good defensive team. Randle is a different guard than what Stanford is used too - maybe the most dynamic since Brevin Knight - a guard who can score with ease and also play some point guard.

He is the kind of player that Dawkins has been after since coming from Duke. A top 100 recruit from outside of Stanford's recruiting grounds in Chicago. A change of pace from the laid back California guards who act as floor generals and floor spacers.

Ever since Dawkins witnessed Randle first handle dropping 34 points in high school in the sectional finals for the win (Randle's Rock Island HS was a major underdog), Dawkins knew this could be a kid who could instill in the rest of the players what he wants his team to be about.

Randle displayed that killer instinct, swagger, and competitiveness that Dawkins had been missing since his days at Duke. At Duke, Dawkins had witnessed plenty of those types of guards run through his system - from Chris Duhon up to Nolan Smith - and Randle is a guy who could definitely play under Coach K.

Its funny, because the first player I thought of while watching Randle was Daniel Ewing. Both are scorers who can man the point. They both play like slashers, but also have a great shooting touch. Both have similar body types and that winning attitude.

Looking back and comparing their numbers - they are nearly identical.

Take Ewing's junior season and compare it to Randle's season last year. Ewing took 6.3 2-pt shots that year and 6.2 shots from behind the arc. Randle took 6.5 2-pt shots and 6.6 3-pt shots. That incredible balance and all around ability is what makes them both great scorers. They also both went to the foul line about 4 times (4.0 and 4.3 to be exact), while hitting at a solid clip (74% and 76%), but not as much as their 3-pt % would suggest (41.1 and 43.8).

The similarities are stunning to be honest. Rebounds, turnovers, and assists are also all nearly identical.

Randle mimics Ewing's game as well. Randle is like a Duke guard in that he can run the point, but has a lot of free will to score from his position. After playing mostly shooting guard last year for Stanford, Randle has been the point guard officially a lot more this year, but as a guard in the system, he is still free to do the same things. Just like how Nolan Smith and Ewing did in their days at Duke.

Randle is also a solid athlete with good size for the point guard position. His athleticism won't blow you away in the freakish sense, but he has plenty of quickness to get into the lane when he wants too. Randle isn't a true point but plays very smart and is saavy in the pick and roll game. He can turn the corner with long strides and has a great handle in the lane. Once he gets to full speed, he is a tough guy to get in front of.

Finishing the ball, Randle's long arms come into play. He is a good finisher because of his arms, but also because he can finish creatively with either hand. He can even put up a floater from both sides.

Defensively, he is a competitor and brings intensity. His length, lateral quickness, and smarts give him the potential to be an above average defender in the NBA.

Randle looks like a four year player and his potential isn't super high, but he could be a late first or early second rounder when he chooses to come out. And I like his chances to have a better NBA career than Daniel Ewing. But like a lot of scoring guards, it depends on the kind of situation he finds himself in.

(all stats used are from Draftexpress.com and based on 40 minutes of play adjusted for pace)