Takeaways from the NBA Combine

The NBA Combine generates a ton of buzz every year in Chicago and the results of the combine are often overanalysed and discussed ad nauseum. NBA teams can get up in the numbers too, but the good teams understand that each number should be taken with a grain of salt. Some numbers are more relevant than others and some players' numbers are also more important.

The combine does present an opportunity to see all the draft prospects in a gym together and see who passes the eye test. Generally, its good to at least note the outliers in both directions. Rudy Gobert had measured with a 7-9 wingspan in Eurocamp previously, but seeing him against other NBA prospects in the flesh makes more of an impact. Gobert generated the most hype out of anyone these past 3 days in Chicago.

Other things to note is who consistently goes hard in drills, who looks out of shape, and shooting mechanics. Getting caught up in the number of shots a guy makes isn't a good idea, but seeing how quick and consistent a prospects stroke is worth watching. For the most part - you know that bad and the good shooters. But having them all in one gym, you can get a better idea on who has the quickest releases. If you are among the best shooters AND have a quick release, that is something noteworthy.

The athletic testing is where you have to be most careful. There are players who train specifically to do well on these tests during the few weeks prior to the event. When you look at data from previous years, there really is no pattern in terms of who succeeds and who fails. Plenty of guys have flopped in athletic testing and went on to have great NBA careers, while there have also been countless workout warriors. If you take a look at the trainers players are training with, you do notice that certain trainers produce better results than others.

For example, Cody Zeller and Victor Oladipo both killed the athletic testing and have been working with the same trainer who constantly produces results. Kenny Kadji, Shane Larkin, and Adonis Thomas all worked out with the same trainer as well and performed better than many thought they would.

This doesn't mean that their leaping ability is better than they showed in college, it just shows that they have practiced these drills. Its important to understand the different approaches prospects have coming into the combine and how it affects their testing. Nothing beats watching game film to measure a guy's athleticism.

Another thing to note is the difference between standing vertical and the maximum vertical. For a big man, more times than not, they will be jumping from a standstill position off of two feet in games. Thats why it was impressive to see Cody Zeller measure with the top standing vertical in the entire draft.

At the same time, the most important thing for big men is getting off the floor quickly - the combine doesn't measure that. While Zeller can just high (which is needed to make up for his short standing reach), he doesn't get off the ground super quick.

Rudy Gobert only produced a standing vertical of 25 inches, but with a record high standing reach, there is no reason for him to have to be able to jump 12 feet in the air. The game in the NBA is played above the rim, but not that high. As long as Gobert gets off the ground fairly quickly - and he does - his vertical is not a big deal at all. He won't need to jump higher than 25 inches to ever block a shot in the NBA.

Meanwhile, guards need to do better in the maximum vertical leap. There are two foot jumping perimeter players and then there are the guys that can fly to the rim on the run by jumping off of one foot. Victor Oladipo does that as well as anyone. Ben McLemore is another guy who excels throwing down dunks on the run.

You also have guys that test well athletically, but don't ever show that kind of athleticism in games. Their numbers are more irrelevant. Kenny Kadji comes to mind.

A guy like CJ Leslie killed the lane agility and ran the court as fast as anyone, but he doesn't know what to do with that speed in the games. Its great to run the court fast, but it is even better to run the court every possession. Leslie is a guy who takes a lot of plays off and doesn't always go at full speed - which is why you shrug off his sprint times.

Leslie's agility times should also be taken with a grain of salt. His feet more faster than his brain. While he has quick feet, all that does a lot of times is take him out of position quicker. Instincts and IQ and more important when playing defense inside - not agility. All this says about Leslie is he can run around on defense like a chicken with its head cut off - without any idea where he is suppose to be.

Shane Larkin posted a billboard day during the athletic testing and that is something that will help him out. During the measurements, he measured with a wingspan less than 6 feet. In the history of the draft, very few guys with that kind of length have ever gone in the first round. To counter that measurement, Larkin went out and dominated the drills today. So when his size is questioned, scouts can turn to his "freakish athleticism" to justify why Larkin will be different from the gang of T-Rex armed guards that have failed before him.



Anyway, the top 5 seems to be as wide open as ever after today. Noel only weighed in at 206 pounds, which is obviously extremely light for a big man. Noel said his injury has caused him to drop weight, but even at 220 pounds he still needs to add a considerable amount of weight.

Porter, Burke, and McLemore remain my next three best prospects. They all did fairly well in Chicago. At this point, I tcould make an argument for any of the four to be the first overall pick. My board is extremely fluid at the top 4 spots and Noel is no sure bet to go #1. He's the biggest risk for sure and its hard to turn down sure things like Burke and Porter.

After them, Rudy Gobert has begun to creep up in the picture. As mainly a college basketball guy, I hadn't watched Gobert near enough this year but as I watch more of him, the more I become convinced he could make a push towards the top 5. One of his biggest concerns is his weight, but he weighed more than guys like Dieng, Olynyk, Mbakwe, Withey, Zeller, and Muscala. Thats almost as big for him as his massive length. Oh yea, and Gobert is nowhere near as raw as Ajinca was. Thats not a fair comparison.

2013 Point Guard Prospects By the Numbers

In part two of our look at the "other" point guards in the draft, I examine each of their statistics and put some meaning behind their numbers. All stats are courtesy of hoop-math.com, a site dedicated to logging play by play data. Big thanks to them for all the work they do. These numbers aren't perfect because box scores aren't always accurate, but they do give you a pretty clear picture with the large sample size.

% of Shots at the Rim

Myck Kabongo - 53%

Ray McCallum - 45%

Lorenzo Brown - 39%

Nate Wolters - 30%

Shane Larkin - 28%

Pierre Jackson - 25%

Phil Pressey - 25%

Erick Green - 23%

Isaiah Canaan - 21%

Matthew Dellavedova - 12%

FG% at the Rim

Nate Wolters - 67%

Erick Green - 67%

Ray McCallum - 66%

Pierre Jackson - 64%

Shane Larkin - 62%

Lorenzo Brown - 61%

Myck Kabongo - 60%

Isaiah Canaan - 56%

Matthew Dellavedova - 53%

Phil Pressey - 45%

Assisted at the Rim 

Ray McCallum - 39%

Nate Wolters - 26%

Pierre Jackson - 24%

Lorenzo Brown - 22%

Erick Green - 21%

Matthew Dellavedova - 21%

Shane Larkin - 18%

Myck Kabongo - 14%

Isaiah Canaan - 13%

Phil Pressey - 7%

Analysis: Myck Kabongo gets to the rim as well as any player, but thats about his only move. He doesn't do a good job at controlling himself on the way to the basket and is in the bottom half in terms of FG% at the rim. 

You can also see that Ray McCallum got a lot of easy buckets at the rim, but did a good job playing without the ball in his hands. Detroit really pushed the pace and McCallum slid over to the off guard spot without a problem at times. On the contrary, you can see that Canaan, Pressey, and Kabongo are the 3 guys who NEED the ball in their hands the most to be effective.

If you're looking for the best finisher, it looks like a toss up between Erick Green and Nate Wolters. Green's numbers are especially impressive given the lack of talent around him and the competition he went up against. He still showed the ability to move without the ball and was able to finish in the lane thanks to his soft touch. 

Pressey, Canaan, and Dellevadova faired really poorly based of these numbers. That shouldn't be a surprise. All three guys were hesitant to go to the rim, thus limiting their chances, but they were still unable to be efficient. And while Canaan and Dellavedova make up for it with their outside shooting, its something Pressey will really need to improve on in order to keep defenses honest.

% of 2-pt Jumpers Taken

Erick Green - 49%

Lorenzo Brown - 39%

Phil Pressey - 37%

Nate Wolters - 35%

Matthew Dellavedova - 33%

Isaiah Canaan - 29%

Shane Larkin - 28%

Pierre Jackson - 26%

Ray McCallum - 24%

Myck Kabongo - 23%

FG% 2-pt Jumpers

Shane Larkin - 45%

Nate Wolters - 45%

Erick Green - 43%

Isaiah Canaan - 42%

Matthew Dellavedova - 42%

Phil Pressey - 38%

Pierre Jackson - 35%

Ray McCallum - 35%

Lorenzo Brown - 30%

Myck Kabongo - 12%

% of 2-pt Jumpers Assists

Pierre Jackson - 13%

Isaiah Canaan - 12%

Ray McCallum - 10%

Erick Green - 10%

Shane Larkin - 9%

Matthew Dellavedova - 4%

Lorenzo Brown - 3%

Nate Wolters - 3%

Phil Pressey - 2%

Myck Kabongo - 0%

Analysis: Once again, I think Nate Wolters and Erick Green measure up the best in this area. Both get a lot of shots off in the mid-range area and make a high percentage. And in the NBA, the have the size and feel for the game to continue to have success in the mid-range area.

Lorenzo Brown and Myck Kabongo were the two with the worst numbers. Neither did very well at the rim either, although both get most of their offense from inside the arc. That obviously brings up some questions with how they will be able to score in the NBA. Both will need to improve their pace of play as well of their jumpers to be able to play in the NBA.

Shane Larkin shot as well as anyone from the 2-pt range and probably has the best floater of anyone in the group. But his ability to get his mid-range jumper off and change speeds is still holding him back from being on the level of Erick Green and Nate Wolters. The same can be said for Pierre Jackson, although he didn't shot the ball as well the rest.

% of Shots from 3-pt Range

Matthew Dellavedova - 55%

Isaiah Canaan - 51%

Pierre Jackson - 49%

Shane Larkin - 44%

Phil Pressey - 38%

Nate Wolters - 35%

Ray McCallum - 31%

Erick Green - 29%

Myck Kabongo - 25%

Lorenzo Brown - 22%

3-pt FG%

Matthew Dellavedova - 40%

Erick Green - 39%

Shane Larkin - 39%

Nate Wolters - 38%

Isaiah Canaan - 36%

Pierre Jackson - 36%

Ray McCallum - 33%

Phil Pressey - 32%

Myck Kabongo - 30%

Lorenzo Brown - 27%

% of 3-pt Shots Assisted 

Myck Kabongo - 75%

Erick Green - 66%

Lorenzo Brown - 65%

Matthew Dellavedova - 62%

Ray McCallum - 51%

Pierre Jackson - 47%

Nate Wolters - 46%

Isaiah Canaan - 41%

Phil Pressey - 39%

Shane Larkin - 37%

Analysis: Matthew Dellavedova shows why he's in this discussion to begin with as he hit 3-pt shots at the best rate and also the highest volume. 

After him, the next 4 guys in terms of volume 3-pt shooting also happen to be the smallest. Pressey, Jackson, Larkin, and Canaan all get a lot of their offense from deep. Small guys have to be able to knock down shots consistently and for Pressey and Jackson there is a question with just how good of shooters they are. You also see why there is reason to question a guy like Jackson's shot selection and ability to run an offense. Despite his ability to break down a defense, he takes a lot of deep 3-pters outside of the flow of offense. While Jackson can be a dynamic scorer at times, he isn't consistently solid at just making the simple/right plays. That hurts his overall PG skills.

On the other end of the spectrum, its impressive how little Erick Green settles for 3-pt shots despite his success from there. Part of it may because of his shot release - his shooting mechanics have been developed for him to get mid-range jumpers off - not shoot from deep. But there is no doubt that he is one of the best shooters in this group.

Shane Larkin may not be a better shooter than Dellavedova, but he is certainly dynamic and may be the best at creating the shot next to Isaiah Canaan. He had the least amount of 3-pters assists, but still hit 39% at a high volume. Combine that with his 2-pt shooting prowess and there is little doubt he can light it up from all over the court. He's got some poor man's Steph Curry to him even though he's shorter and not QUITE the shooter.

Overall: The most balanced scorers look to be Erick Green and Nate Wolters. Both had a lot of pressure on them to score the ball, but still succeeded. Neither racked up the assists like other prospects, but they both have two of the better basketball IQs among the group. Their ability to score all over the floor and be a threat will make their passing game that much more lethal. And both do have the passing skills, they just weren't asked to show them that much at their respective schools. Erick Green will have a bigger transition to make as he played off ball more than any other prospect.

Phil Pressey, Myck Kabongo, and Lorenzo Brown all have question marks about their ability to score the ball and will have to show that they can hit jumpers more consistently. Pierre Jackson appeared to be on another level as those guys, but didn't show the balance and shooting ability you'd like to see from a guy marketed as a dynamic scorer.

Shane Larkin looked good according to these numbers, but it will be interesting to see how he does against better athletes who don't have to give him as much space. Once he gets to the NBA, he will need to find a way to shoot from mid-range. If he does, he has the makings of a poor man's Steph Curry.

Examining The PGs Outside of Burke, MCW, and Schroeder

One of the most intriguing positions this year is the lead guard position. The position is far from top heavy with just Trey Burke a lock for the lottery. It even lacks any other locks for the first round besides Michael Carter-Williams and CJ McCollom if you count him. What it does have is a lot of second round depth and a lot of competition. You can be certain that there will be another PG besides the ones mentioned above going in the first round, but the question is who? There are plenty of names to choose from and all of them have an argument to go within the first 30 picks. The second round could see quite a few point guards taken, which has not been a trend of the past couple of years. This draft lacks the surefire starters, but it could produce as many quality NBA rotational players since at least 2009.

Trey Burke is by far and away the best point guard in this class and is also arguably the safest pick in the entire draft. Depending on who wins the lottery, he could even go #1 overall. At the end of the day, I don't see a likely scenario where he slips out of the top 5.

Burke doesn't have the measurables or athleticism of your typical top 5 point guard. He might not even measure 6-0 and isn't ultra quick or explosive. But what he does have is an advanced knowledge of the game. Burke understands when to attack, when to pass, and how to get his teammates the ball where they need it. He runs the pick and roll like a surgeon and is always in complete control of the offense. He can get his points when needed, but he is also a great passer who makes his teammates better.

His predecessor, Darius Morris, took an entire year before he understood John Beilein's complex system enough to gain his trust. Thats why he was one of the most improved players statistically his sophomore season. Its just very hard to adjust to Beilein's offense as a freshman.

Yet Trey Burke was good enough to start his freshman year and allowed plenty of freedom from John Beilein. Based off that alone, you could tell that this kid was going to be special.

When I'm evaluating point guard prospects, I take a especially close look at their ability to control the tempo of the game, I also like to see how they handle adversity, run the pick and roll, change speeds, and balance scoring and passing. A point guard cannot disappear during the game. A point guard has to be the rock of the team. That is what I am looking for, guys with those traits. Trey Burke has all of that. 

There are other guys in this draft that lack these things, but have gotten by on potential. Myck Kabongo comes to mind immediately. You can even include Lorenzo Brown to an extent as his develop as a point guard isn't what you'd like to see from a junior. Michael Carter-Williams fits as well, although he's viewed on a higher tier as the rest of these guys. If you want to read more on him, check out my latest Stock Attack.

I want to focus more on the rest of the collegiate point guards in this piece and give a good overview on what to expect from each of them. All of these guys have a chance to stick in the NBA.

Nate Wolters

Strengths: Wolters is known for his scoring, but his biggest asset may be the way he attacks a defense. He knows how to read a defense and react. He understands angles and forces defenses to commit to him. He's a good passer who does an excellent job getting his teammates in good spots. He is also a very tough competitor and a gym rat. His jumper got better every year and he is constantly looking for ways to perfect it. There is a stigma around him that he's a just a shooter, but he's a very balanced scoring who looks to attack off the bounce more often than not. He should be very good in the pick and roll as he really has a good feel with the ball in his hands. In a lot of ways, he reminds me of Jeremy Lin. 

Weaknesses: Wolters is just a average athlete and will need to get stronger to play at the next level. He lacks the explosiveness to be a great finisher around the rim. He also struggles to stay in front of players, although he did a great job funneling Trey Burke into help defense in the NCAA tournament. Wolters has good height to help him overcome some of his shortcomings athletically, but below average length for his size. 

Shane Larkin

Strengths: Larkin is very quick and is nearly impossible to contain in the pick and roll. He's a pure shooter with a quick release. He also has good touch inside with a very reliable floater and is able to change speeds. He did a good job mixing up his scoring and his passing this year. He has excellent burst and can beat you in many different ways. He's very comfortable shooting off the dribble in either direction and its very tough to stop him. He does a good job getting his jumpers off, but he doesn't look to settle for just jumpers. Larkin is also a very confident and competitive player who doesn't get rattled.

Weaknesses: Larkin will measure out at under 6-0 at the combine most likely. And while he is very quick and fast, he isn't the most explosive player. He lacks a great build, although he is stronger and tougher than he looks. He also will have to continue to prove his passing abilities and show that he is a true point guard. His in between game also needs work. Defenses in the NBA won't be as afraid of his quickness, so he will have to deal more with tighter defense and NBA length. He didn't see much of that in college because his speed forced teams to go under screens and give him room. He also struggles to get all the way to the rim even though his floater game render that a moot point in college.

Erick Green

Strengths: Erick Green was arguably the best scorer in the country this season and a large part was due to his silky smooth jumper. He's very quick and had no problem creating space to get shots off and elevating over opponents. He has a great mid-range game and is effective in the pick and roll. Green also is lethal in transition where he forces a defender to stop him dead in his tracks if they want to prevent a bucket. Green has a high basketball IQ and is very unselfish, despite his scoring numbers. At Virginia Tech, they needed him to be a scorer so that is what he did, but it doesn't mean he can't run point guard. He just didn't have a good team around him. Finally, Green is a good defender who managed to play hard on that end of the court well. He is obviously very well conditioned.

Weaknesses: Green has spent his time at Virginia Tech being a scorer and hasn't had time gaining experience as a true point guard. He will have to learn the position as he goes in the NBA. Green also has a narrow frame and lacks strength. He could have trouble defending stronger guards. Green also may struggle against physical defense. His lack of success in college in terms of winning will also be something teams will look for answers to.

Phil Pressey 

Strengths: Pressey is a pure point guard who gets into the lane at will and finds teammates. He plays with a ton of confidence and with the sense that he is always the best player on the court. He is one of the few pass first point guards in college nowadays and possessing outstanding vision. He's a creative passer and is able to create plays from nothing. He does an excellent job pushing the ball in transition and can stop and pull up on the move. There is plenty of fight with Pressey and he wants to win badly. He always wants the ball in his hands with the game on the line.

Weaknesses: Pressey will have to overcome his size and his inability to finish at the rim at the next level. He also made some questionable decisions down the stretch of games this season. He tries to do too much a lot of times and turned it over more than any other PG prospect. Although he has great vision, his game management needs a lot of work. Pressey had a bit of a down year after most of his teammates left for the NBA last season. He's a solid shooter, but not great and will have trouble getting his shot off in the pros. Defense will also be hard for him and he didn't always play with good effort on that side of the ball.  He lacks the explosiveness or scoring instincts of other small guards who have been successful in the NBA as of late.

Pierre Jackson

Strengths: Jackson is a dynamic player, both in terms of scoring and passing. He was the first player since Jason Terry to lead a BCS conference in scoring and assists. Jackson is very quick and packs a lot of explosiveness in his small frame. He can get to his spots at will on the court, pull up and hit mid-range jumpers, and also knock down deep threes. Jackson also has no problem breaking down defenses and creating for others. He's a competitive, hard working player who doesn't have any glaring weaknesses. He projects as a Nate Robinson type instant offense off the bench, but with better court sense.

Weaknesses: Jackson is another guard who is undersized and may be closer to 5-9 than 6-0. He will struggle defensively and will also need to show a better effort there. Jackson will need to add some bulk to continue to play his style. He also needs to continue to work on his point guard skills by changing speeds and making the simple plays. He turns the ball over a little too much at this point.

Isaiah Canaan

Strengths: Canaan was one of the best scorers in college basketball thanks to his jump shot with unlimited range. He mastered the art of pulling up from deep in transition. He also is able to create his shot with his crossover and step back move from both 3-pt range and inside the arc. Canaan has a strong frame and plays with a chip on his shoulder. He is also very good shooting with his feet set. In terms of putting the ball in the basket, there aren't many guys that do it better than him.

Weaknesses: Canaan is undersized and not a pure point guard. He doesn't get off the ground very quickly. His shot release is also a little slow for a guy who projects as a shooter at the next level. Canaan looks to score more than pass and its not clear whether he has the ability to make plays for others. This year he was able to show improvement in terms of changing speeds. It is also a question of whether he can defend. Canaan struggled to answer many of these questions last summer during skill camps.

Myck Kabongo

Strengths: Kabongo has very good length and quickness for a point guard, enabling him to be a pesky defender and come up with plenty of steals. Kabongo has no problem breaking down defenses and getting into the paint, where he is a solid drive and dish point guard. He has good handles and has budding leadership skills. Kabongo also is a high character guy who has been through a lot in his life. The general skills that Kabongo possess are what many seek in a point guard - high character, defense, pass first, quickness, and the ability to get by defenders.

Weaknesses: Kabongo never put together a good season in college and was suspended for his relationship with a NBA agent. While he seems like a good kid, many believe he is being misled by those around him. Kabongo also has poor mechanics on his shot and lacks a great feel for the point guard position. He only plays at one speed and dominates the ball. He's also turnover prone and needs to get stronger. His ability to run a team will need major work and he'll likely have to spend a year in the D-League at least.

Ray McCallum

Strengths: McCallum turned it over less than any other point guard with the potential to get drafted, despite being a huge part of his teams offense. He is the coach's son and plays like one. He plays under control and at a steady pace. He is able to get all the way to the rim, but also has a developing mid-range game. McCallum is a very good passer as well, although this season he took on the scoring role. Part of the reason his turnovers were so low was because he took a lot of quick jumpers and didn't attempt to force any drives or passes. McCallum is deceptively quick and does a good job running the pick and roll. He is also a solid athlete. 

Weaknesses: McCallum improved his jumper this year, but still shot a fairly low percentage from the 3-pt line. His jumper looked good, however, and he had to take a lot of tough contested shots. There is also a question of whether McCallum is dynamic enough as a player. He doesn't do anything at an elite or even very good level. McCallum also has short arms and can have trouble finishing at the next level. He didn't play against the best competition, but should look better when he is surrounded by better teammates and able to play as a more tradition PG.

Lorenzo Brown

Strengths: Brown possesses very good height and vision for a point guard. He is able to break down defenses and is crafty with his passing and ball handling. He has made the transition from a high school combo guard to a success college point guard while racking up plenty of assists. Brown also does a very good job when he is able to push the ball in transition and has good foot work en route to the rim. He is able to finish in a variety of ways. He's a fluid athlete who uses his long strides to his advantage. He can create his own shots pretty easily thanks to his size, ball handling, and creativity.

Weaknesses: Brown is still learning the nuances of being a point guard and was the leader of a very inconsistent and underperforming North Carolina State team. He is also a poor shooter who saw his shooting numbers drop to record lows this season. Brown also can be too crafty for his own good - often making shots at the rim tougher than they should be and trying to get into seams where he can't fit through. He doesn't do a good job drawing fouls despite his slashing ability, which is a result of him trying to avoid contact. He lacks the strength to finish with contact. He is also old for his class and will be 23 by the time the 2013-14 NBA season kicks off.

Honorable Mention: 

Matthew Dellavedova

Dellavedova is an outstanding shooter and combines that with great size and strength. He has proven he can run a team both in college and at the Olympic level. His experience shows on the court and he passes over the defense very well. Dellevadova knows how to use the pick and roll to his advantage, although he rarely gets to the rim. He's an underrated prospect who gets dismissed because he isn't a very good athlete.

Conclusion:

I believe that Pierre Jackson is the most NBA ready point guard of this group to fill a role. He fits perfectly into the Nate Robinson/Isaiah Thomas role. However, I don't see him ever being a consistent starter which is why I'd consider taking a few other guys over him.

Right now Nate Wolters, Erick Green, Ray McCallum, and Shane Larkin each have a better chance than Jackson of developing into a starter. Each of them also have question marks that could have them glued to the bench or out of the league in a few years. But this is a very solid group and I believe at least one will turn into a NBA starting point guard. Green is the best shooter of the bunch and also looks to be the best defender. He is also able to score at all three levels, has high character, and NBA level quickness/explosiveness which is why I currently have him ranked higher than anyone else on this list.

But McCallum and Wolters are both intriguing guys who could end up being better once they are surrounded by better teammates. They both have very good point guard skills, but were asked to be more of scorers for their teams. While they aren't typical "upside" guys, they could surprise people who aren't familiar with them.

Larkin doesn't have the size of the other three nor does he have the experience. His transition to the NBA looks to be a little rougher which is why I think he shouldn't get selected until Round 2. His upside is also kind of a mystery. The other guys have more defined roles as true point guards and are more ready to contribute which is why I believe they should get some consideration as possible late first round picks.

Finally, we have Isaiah Canaan, Phil Pressey, Myck Kabongo, and Lorenzo Brown. For Kabongo, I see too big of a question mark to invest a first round pick on. He won't be ready to contribute for a few years and will need to grind in the D-League to ever be successful. An unguaranteed contract has his name written all over it.

Canaan doesn't have the point guard skills to ever start in the NBA and if you want a scorer off the bench, Pierre Jackson is a better bet. Canaan to me seems like a guy who will likely be out of the league in a few years. 

Pressey and Brown quite frankly, haven't impressed me. Pressey is a pass first point guard who makes questionable decisions. He can't shoot, defend, or finish inside. Brown failed to lead his college team and is old by NBA draft standards. He has a lot of holes in his game for a 22 year old and the likelihood of him fixing those holes aren't great, especially considering he took a step back this season. 

Scouting Report: Shane Larkin

Shane Larkin was originally a high level mid-major recruit being courted by the likes of Depaul, George Mason, Colorado, and Boston College. He was seen as a potential face of a team, a point guard who could take over games with his scoring, but his short stature prevented him from getting looks from the top schools in the country. George Mason was perhaps the top school on his list, as Larkin was a big fan of Jim Larranaga, but Coach L decided to take another guard over him instead of waiting on Larkin to make a decision. That resulted in Larkin ultimately choosing Depaul, but he asked out of his scholarship months before the season started due to an undisclosed medical condition.

It also just so happened that Jim Larranaga had moved on to Miami and had one more scholarship available for a guard in the class of 2011. It was a perfect fit.

The rest you can say, is history.

Shane Larkin made an immediate impact his freshman year, averaging 25.6 minutes a game. His playing time was inconsistent though and with Durand Scott often on the ball, it was hard for Larkin to get into a rhythm. At the start of this past season, his sophomore campaign, things were different as Larkin had been given complete reigns of the offense over the senior incumbent Durand Scott.

Shane Larkin averaged 14.5 points, 4.6 assists, 3.8 rebounds, and 2 steals per contest while shooting 48% from the field and over 40% from the arc. He led Miami to a surprise finish atop the ACC and helped them earn a number 2 seed in the NCAA tournament. Their season ended in a loss in the Sweet 16 to Marquette.

Larkin was able to improve so much from one year to the next because Miami decided to put the ball in his hands and let him make plays. On a team filled with seniors, it was Larkin who served as the catalyst. He was the most competitive, consistent, and complete player all year long. In the ACC championship game, he exploded for 28 points and 7 assists. By the end of the year, it was clear that this was his team and he was making things look easy.

Larkin thrived in an up tempo setting and also did a great job in pick and roll situations. Nearly all possesses for Miami started with Larkin having the ball in a pick and roll situation. Larkin is deadly in those situations for a multitude of reasons.

The first is his burst/acceleration. Larkin is quick changing directions and has a nice crossover, but his acceleration and burst is more impressive. He can come around a screen and turn on the jets with relative ease. Defenders want to play off of him and play him for the drive, but it is virtually impossible because Larkin is also a major threat shooting the ball.

Larkin shot over 40% from behind the arc this season and it had nothing to do with any luck. He is a great shooter who maintains excellent balance whether he is shooting from a standstill position or off the dribble. Larkin is always under such control with the ball in his hands. Defenders have no idea how to guard him as he can pull up from NBA range or drive right by you. He is so smooth and shoots the ball with such ease coming off the dribble. In a way, his use of the pick and roll is reminiscent of Steph Curry - just the way he is always ready to shoot and make anyone pay for slacking off in the pick and roll game.

That isnt to say he is the next Steph Curry - Curry is a once in a generation shooter and has a couple of inches on him - and those two discrepancies can make all the difference. But his feel with the ball in his hands is on Curry's level.

Larkin doesn't settle for jumpers though. He is very balanced when it comes to attacking the pick and roll. Thats why he is so dangerous. It is very hard to predict what he will do. He can go around the edge of the screen and has the burst to turn the corner, but he is just as likely to split the screen with a quick crossover move. Even when he aggressively attacks the rim. Larkin never finds himself out of control.

At only 5'11'' and lacking great explosiveness or strength, its not surprising that Larkin isnt great at getting all the way to the rim and finishing. But he doesn't have to. Larkin has an excellent feel on his floater and gets off his jumpers very quickly as well. As I said, Larkin is always under control and ready to shoot, showing excellent balance at all times. He shot 45% on 2-pt shots outside of layups and most of them came on floaters or short jumpers. In terms of shooting long jumpers after attacking the screener, Larkin doesn't do that often.

Instead, if Larkin is unable to get in position to shoot his floater, he is a perfectly capable passer. Not only is he balanced in shooting and driving, but he also does a good job of picking his spots on when to pass. At the college level, Larkin is more of a score first point guard because the opportunities presented themselves, but in the NBA he can easily adapt to looking for his teammates more.

Larkin is a creative passer with great vision. He never misses finding an open man. Since Larkin struggles to get all the way to the rim and finish, when he sees a help defender coming on a drive, he usually always is able to find the open man with a pass. His drive and kick game is on point and he always does a good job getting the ball to his big men. He finds his big men on lobs and is a creative passer, sometimes leaving his feet to find teammates. While jump passing can be discouraged, Larkin has good knowledge of when it is acceptable and rarely gets himself in tough spots.

In the college game, Larkin was able to dominant offensively with the ball and his hands just by using the pick and roll. In the NBA, teams won't be as scared off him and will be able to cover him tighter and with longer defenders. In college, the threat to shoot or drive often left him without an pressure on the ball and gave him free reign on the court. That won't be as easy in the NBA. He will need to prove he can handle the ball against tough man to man defenders and his strength will definitely need to be improved.

But his ball handling does appear to be at a high level already. He is able to go in both directions (again, there is that balance again) off the dribble without any favoritism for one hand.

Size will obviously be one of his biggest issues, but he does have a very quick release on his jumpshot. And he also can play off the ball from time to time to provide some scoring. Larkin is just as good of a shooter spotting up as he is off the bounce and has the basketball IQ to move without the ball in his hands as well.

Defensively will present the biggest obstacles for Larkin as he is neither tall or strong. Durand Scott drew a lot of the tougher defensive assignments at Miami, but in the NBA it will be impossible to hide. This is where Larkin's competitiveness, quick hands, and IQ will give him a chance to make him an adequate defender. In college, he has already demonstrated that he is a good team defender that understands when to help. Larkin's conditioning should also allow him to give maximum effort on defense. He was one of the best conditioned athletes in college basketball last season and logged over 36 minutes per game.

Heading into the draft this year was a tough decision for Larkin. He loved Miami and didn't enter the season with the NBA draft on his mind. But as chips began to fall, it made a lot of sense for Larkin to enter. Basically the entire core of the Hurricanes are graduating, leaving a lot of unknowns for next year. It was highly unlikely that Miami would share similar success they did this year and a lot of pressure would fall on Larkin's shoulders. Another year would also give scouts a chance to pick a part his game - something that wasn't done a lot this year since he practically came out of nowhere. And there is plenty to pick apart. After all, he is a sub 6 foot guard. And without teammates next year, it could be the perfect storm for scouts to begin questioning whether he is a true point or just a scorer. There is also the belief that he has already improved and done as much as he can in college, mastering the game, and he needs a new challenge.

This is a weak draft class and that also played a decision in him leaving. So did Kevin Ware's freak injury. And Marcus Smart deciding to come back to school and making the point guard pool slimmer may have been the final straw. For Larkin though, that doesn't spell an automatic first round selection. While this draft is weak and only has two sure fire first round picks at point guard, there is plenty of depth at the lead guard spot projected to go in the second round. Larkin is perfectly capable of coming out on top of that pack and earning himself a late first round selection, but he could also fall somewhere in the middle of that group and not hear his name called in the second round. All in all, Larkin's decision to go pro looks to be a smart one.

Striking While the Iron is Hot

Nobody wants to find themselves in the situation that James McAdoo is in this year - passing up a spot in the NBA's lottery for a chance to come back and lead UNC - only to see his stock plummet it the process. McAdoo's story is a bit dramatic as he could have been a lottery pick, but there are many other more common cases of guys that stay a year too late and go from a fringe first rounder to undrafted. Instead of looking at guys who most likely will declare this year, I'll look at 6 guys who are firmly sitting on the fence and could go either way. For these 6 players, McAdoo's story could lend be a cautionary tale that they should take into consideration when deciding whether to come back to school. Their stocks are looking good after strong seasons, but another season in college could exposure more of their weaknesses or just cool off the intrigue of their upside.

These guys may not be NBA ready, but they are NBA Draft ready. They can get paid and then spent a season in the D-League working on their games as opposed to a college setting where their practice time would be more limited.

Scouting Report: Durand Scott

Durand Scott has always been a polarizing prospect. Possessing solid athleticism and size to go along with a good skillset, Scott certainly looks the part of a pro. In high school, he beat out Lance Stephenson for the NYC high school player of the year - and it just so happens that Stephenson is one of the most comparable current NBA players to the senior guard.

Scott proved ready for college by averaging double digits his first season at Miami and getting named to the All-ACC Freshman team. Unlike Stephenson, Scott chose to stay in school and work on his game. And here we are, three years after his freshman season ended, with much of the same things to be said about Scott that could have been said then. He's in between positions on both offense and defense and hasn't shown much improvement. He's a good player, but does he make his teammates better? Can he play PG? Will he ever learn how to shoot?

One thing to take note of this year, that is different from prior years, is that he is playing for a winning team. In his freshman year, the Hurricanes went 4-12 in ACC play. Since then, they have won at least two more conference games than the year before - culminating in the ACC regular season title this season. So while Scott hasn't turned into a superstar that has led this team from the bottom - he has seen an increase in the talent around him. Among the notable players was Shane Larkin, who has officially become the face of Miami's basketball team and primary ball handler.

Larkin leads the team in both points and assists. Scott actually is third on the team in scoring, despite leading the team in the category last year and placing second the year before. One positive thing you can say about this situation is the way that Scott has handle it. There has been no sign of jealousy or discontent from the senior as he watches Larkin get all the attention. Not only has Scott lost the leading role on the team, but he has also had his point guard duties stripped from him - giving little chance at a last ditch effort to prove to NBA teams that he is a point guard.

By now though, nobody expects Scott to be an effective NBA point guard. What this season may prove to teams though is, 1) Scott is a team player who puts winning first and 2) Scott is able to play without the ball in his hands.

And furthermore, the Hurricanes have the potential to advance deep in the NCAA Tournament and even win the title, which would be great for Scott's draft stock. Even for a senior, exposure and ending your career on a high note will help your stock and leave a good final impression on decision makers minds.

In terms of Scott's playing style, he is very much a combo guard on offense that is wired to score. He has a solid frame and stands about 6'4'' tall with good length and a solid build. Scott is able to get into the lane with long strides, solid hesitation moves, and an expanding feel of how to change speeds.

His playmaking ability hasn't really advanced much since when he was labeled as a combo guard coming out of high school. He still has a tendency to dribble with his head down and pound the ball into the floor while wasting seconds on the shotclock. Scott has ability to breakdown the defense as a drive and kick guy, and does find teammates through this way from time to time, but he more often gets himself in trouble when facing help defense.

Scott is only an average finisher for a guy with this creativity and athleticism around the rim. According to hoop-math.com, he shot just 57% on shots around the rim - the lowest among all Miami regulars. This has a lot to do with his ability to deal with help defenders. For one, he has tunnel vision driving to the lane and doesn't kick it out enough when defenders begin to close in - creating a tough shot for himself. In addition, Scott shies away from contact and prefers to use acrobatics to avoid defenders and convert spectacular, yet low percentage, finishes. Scott can be a very flashy finisher in the lane, but he needs to focus more on getting to the line and finishing through contact. His frame can handle some added bulk.

Scott also would do himself good to improve his free throw shooting, which perhaps is one reason he does try to avoid contact. Scott is shooting just 72% this year at the line. Both his FT% and FTA have fallen each of the past two years as he has been asked to do less playmaking due to the presence of Shane Larkin.

In terms of any revelations of playing without the ball, Scott has done an adequate job spacing the floor and making hustle plays. But he still doesn't have much skill in moving without the basketball and his shooting ability from 3-pt range leaves a lot to be desired. Scott will hit some of the toughest jumpers possible, but fails to hit any kind of jumper with regularity. On a positive note, his mid-range game has potential to be a strength of his and he's had good success both creating and making jumpers from inside the arc.

Overall, Scott is a guy who can carry an offense at times, but is far too inconsistent to be a primary scorer. He doesn't have the size or shooting ability as a shooting guard and lacks the feel for the game to play point guard. He's a guy in between positions on offense, but does have potential to provide scoring off the bench.

Defense will have to be his ticket into the NBA, though. Scott was named to the ACC-All Defensive team today and it was much deserved. He did a fine job defending guards such as Seth Curry, Rasheed Sulaimon, Michael Snaer, and Erick Green during ACC play and showed great intensity doing so. Scott has a reasonable amount of strength and lateral quickness and has the wingspan to keep shooters within reach. He also has been a more opportunistic defender than in years past, averaging 1.6 steals a game.

I believe in Scott's ability to be a good defender, but he still is in between positions on the defensive end too. His effect on defense will be dependent on matchups as he won't be able to lockdown bigger wings or quicker point guards.

Whether Scott has an NBA or future or not will be easier to dissect once his official measurements come out. He's listed anywhere from 6'3 to 6'5 and if he has a wingspan over 6'8, that would give some merit to his defensive abilities. A strong vertical would be a good sign as well. Iman Shumpert flew up draft boards after his combine and Scott projects to be a similar player stylistically. I wouldn't dare call Scott as great of an athlete or physical speciman as Shumpert, but they share plenty of similarities (poor shooters, lack of PG skills, strong defenders, good size and athleticism, struggled on poor ACC teams when they led offense) that could make Scott a poor man's version of him.

Durand Scott is a potential 2nd round pick who will have a chance to either boost or hurt his stock in both the NCAA tournament and NBA combine. He's a mix of Lance Stephenson and Iman Shumpert. He is somewhere in the middle between them as athletes while having Stephenson's flair and Shumpert's defensive mentality. He lacks the strength of Stephenson or the athleticism of Shumpert and is in the same area overall as a point guard and shooter.