Finding a Second Round All-Star

I wanted to do a piece on potential second round picks in this draft that possess the most upside, but I decided it would be appropriate to look at previous second round steals from the past 15 years. These 5 players are the only American players to be selected in the second round who went on to play in an All-Star game at some point.

A few things you will notice about these player:

1) None of them are that elite type of athlete that one would generally associate with a high upside pick in the second round. Furthermore, none of them were freshman in college - although Rashard Lewis came out as a high schooler.

2) The majority of these guys earned their stripes as scorers. Part of this has to do with the all-star criteria. There are some other second round steals during this time period that didn't make an All-Star game primarily because scoring tends to be overvalued for such awards.

3) Everyone in this group became great shooters and most had questions about their shooting abilities entering the draft. However, none of them had bad shots coming out of college. Their jumpers were all repairable and most showed improvement during their time in college as well.

4) Pinpointing talent in the second round is only half of the battle. Second round picks become restricted free agents after two years and you can easily be placed in a tough situation of having to overpay your draft steal to retain them. The Cavs and Warriors lost their all-star caliber steals because they made their worth known to the rest of the league right away. Rashard Lewis and Michael Redd were able to stay with their teams for a longer time because they didn't play consistently their first two season.

If you have a second round steal on your hands, it may be smarter to hide them a bit until you are able to lock them up for at least a few years. These steals lose a lot of their value if you are forced to pay them 10+ million a year after they've only played two seasons. The Wizards jumped on Arenas, but never were able to take the next step with him as the centerpiece. There hasn't been a second round pick in the NBA that has proven he can be the best player on a championship worthy team, so its risky to invest a bunch of money in a  player two years after he wasn't even good enough to go in the first round.

5) Most of these guys wouldn't have been labeled as huge risk/reward picks when they entered the draft. The didn't necessarily succeed because they finally achieved their "unlimited" potential. These guys consist of combo guard tweeners, undersized power forwards, and a very typical looking shooting guard. The only guys who could have been associated with the word potential were Gilbert Arenas and Rashard Lewis.

6) Oddly enough, none of these guys were overlooked due to lack of exposure. They all went to big schools.  In fact, three of the four that went to college played in the NCAA Final Four! Only Mo Williams did not, but his team entered the NCAA tournament as a #2 seed.

7) International players are a different animal when it comes to the second round so I left them out. But when it comes to finding steals in the second round, taking a overseas player is as good of a bet as any.

Mo Williams

Draft Year: 2003
Drafted By: Utah Jazz
Pick Number : 47
Left After ___ Year: Sophomore
College: Alabama

Mo Williams left Alabama after two successful years at Alabama and was viewed as one of the best players on the board when the Utah Jazz selected him. However he lacked great athleticism or size to make up for his lack of PG skills and only shot around 30% from 3-pt range. The Jazz never reaped the benefits of their smart pick as they cut him after his rookie season. Williams then greatly improved his outside stroke and went to an all-star game primarily because he was a great spot up threat playing with LeBron James. There was reason to believe that Williams could become a good shooter as he shot above 80% from the line in college. With repetition, he expanded his range to fit the NBA game.

Carlos Boozer

Draft Year: 2002
Drafted By: Cleveland Cavaliers
Pick Number: 35
Left After ___ Year: Junior
College: Duke

Boozer left school after his junior season, with a National Championship under his belt from the prior year. He was a winner and produced, but many questioned his size and speed. He played out of position at Duke as well and struggled to finish against taller players. His jump shot had potential as he showed range out to 18 feet, but he didn't hit it consistently yet. But given the range he showed in college and his solid free throw shooting, it shouldn't have been a surprise that he became one of the best mid-range shooter power forwards in the game.

Boozer made an immediate impact for the Cavaliers and as a second round pick, was in line for a big pay day after playing just two seasons. He was a restricted free agent and bolted to the Utah Jazz. Ironically, Boozer went in the opposite direction as Mo Williams but both had some good years playing with LeBron.

Michael Redd

Draft Year: 2000
Drafted By: Milwaukee Bucks
Pick Number: 43
Left After ___ Year: Junior
College: Ohio State

Entering the draft after a final four run the prior year, Redd wasn't known as a shooter at all. The Ohio State star had the size and the physical profile of a prototype shooting guard, but never shot above 34% from deep in his college career. He was more known for defense and solid slashing ability. In his junior year, his FT shooting jumped from 61% his first two seasons to 77%. His improvement in shooting proved to be more than just an outlier as he went on to be one of the most prolific shooters in the NBA.

He didn't play much in his rookie season, but came on strong at the end of his second year for the Milwaukee Bucks. He didn't play consistently enough behind Ray Allen, however, for any team to trust him with a big offer as a restricted free agent so they Bucks were able to keep him on a bargain contract until the 2004-05 season. Thats when Redd cashed in with a huge contract - a contract that ended up being one of the worst contracts in the NBA as Redd battled injuries for the remainder of his NBA career.

Rashard Lewis

Draft Year: 1998
Drafted By: Seattle Supersonics
Pick Number: 32
Left After ___ Year: High School
College: N/A

Lewis was famously the last player remaining in the Green Room in 1998 and took it hard as only a high school kid. He wasn't thought of as a second round talent, but perhaps dropped because teams didn't view him as ready enough physically for the NBA. He already had signs of a great jumpshot from his high school days.

Like Michael Redd, Lewis didn't play much his rookie season and shared time as a sophomore player. Because of this, the Supersonics were able to retain Lewis for a relative bargain after he became a restricted free agent following his second season. Also like Redd, it was his third NBA contract that ended up killing a NBA team - as the Magic were stuck with his max contract for years.

Gilbert Arenas

Draft Year: 2001
Drafted By: Golden State Warriors
Pick Number: 30
Left After ___ Year: Sophomore

Arenas left Arizona his sophomore year with dreams of being picked in the first round, but instead went with the first pick and the second round. He had the talent of a first round pick, but had a lot of questions surrounding his game as well. He was in between positions, made lots of questionable decisions, and was only an average ball handler. Despite a very good first step, he didn't look like a point guard. His shooting at the time was only average as well - he shot just under 74% in his career at the FT line and 36% from behind the arc. However, his 3-pt shooting rose above 41% in his final year, although his FT% dipping to 71% sent a mixed message.

Arenas quickly became a volume scorer in the NBA, putting up big numbers on some poor Warrior teams. By his second year, Arenas was no longer a secret and drew a lot of attention as a restricted free agent. Warriors were unable to match the Wizards offer at 10 million dollars a season and lost their second round steal after just two seasons. Gilbert's third contract ended up doing in the Wizards when they signed him to a max deal and he was eventually involved in a trade for Rashard Lewis.

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This shows us that finding the guys with all-star potential isn't as easy as identifying the best athletes and the rawest players. Some guys simply get overlooked and written off. In this draft, the big time potential guys in the second round include Archie Goodwin, Ricky Ledo, BJ Young, Adonis Thomas, and Myck Kabongo. But maybe there are some guys with less tangible upside that could be overlooked. Here are two possibilities based on draft history:

Erick Green - Green fits the Mo Williams/Gilbert Arenas mold. All were great scorers in college, but didn't show much point guard skills because they were needed to score the ball. However, all had plenty of experience with the ball in their hands. Green has the jumpshot, quickness, and first step to be a scorer in the NBA. He produced big time in college, but is being overlooked in this deep point guard class.

Jackie Carmichael - Carmichael's scouting report reads very similarly to what was said about Carlos Boozer when he left Duke. Both had good post games, played smart and tough, rebounded, and showed some shooting ability. Like Boozer, Carmichael is far from a consistent shooter at this stage but has decent mechanics and range out to 18 feet.

Conclusion: If you swing for the fences, most of the time you will end up striking out. But if you just try to make solid contact, the ball will go over the fence once in awhile.

Scouting Report: Nerlens Noel

Nerlens Noel is the 4th youngest player in the draft class, having just turned 19 in April. He reclassified back to the class of 2012 in order to attend Kentucky a year early and become the next Calipari recruit in line for the number one pick. A torn ACL against Florida in February ended his collegiate career and it will at least delay his NBA career from starting for at least a couple of months into the 2013-14 NBA season.

For some teams, Noel missing most of the NBA season may be intriguing as the see it as an opportunity to score another high draft pick in the 2014 NBA Draft. While only one team will be able to draft Andrew Wiggins, the 2014 NBA Draft is expected to have potential stars located throughout the top 10.

Coming into Kentucky, Noel shouldn't have been expected to replicate Anthony Davis' 2012-13 season. Noel drew obvious comparisons to his predecessor due to his length, elite athleticism, and shot blocking process but he was much more raw on the offensive end. Calling Noel the favorite to be the number one overall pick was realistic, but expecting him to be the same kind of talent Davis was wasn't.

Based on my personal expectations of Noel, I'd say he lived up to his billing in his first and final year in Lexington. In high school, he didn't put up the biggest numbers and seemed preoccupied and disinterested at times. He preferred to play on the outside and handle the ball and didn't always play smart or with energy.

Noel was raw as expected on offense, but he appeared to be nothing but extremely coachable at Kentucky. There was no questioning his energy or his willingness to play inside. He worked on his post game, dove on the floor for loose balls, and became the defensive anchor that he was expected to be. Any questions from Noel's high school days can be attributed to the environment.

Calipari constantly praised his work ethic and character. On the court, he looked like the most mature freshman of the group. His energy was always there and he played his role better than anyone else - making good decisions for the most part. This college season helped erase any of those concerns about him (which may have never been justified in the first place) and for that alone, made the year in Kentucky worth it.

As for his offensive game, it is still extremely raw but you could see him getting better from a game to game basis. He doesn't have strength to hold off defenders in the post and because of this, he had a tendency to rush a lot of his shots. He could get pushed off the ball easily and lose balance in the post and learned quickly that he has to make quick decisions given his current level of strength.

His post game is pretty straight forward now. It consists of a short baby jump hook that he is able to hit with either hand. He almost always faked towards the middle of the court in the post and came back to the baseline to get off his hook shot. Its not very impressive looking, but it was an efficient move and nearly impossible to contest. His range on this shot is very limited however, and he needed to get within 8 to 10 feet of the rim for him to have a shot. That was obviously hard given his lack of strength.

Between his inability to establish post position and his poor free throw shooting, it was very hard for Kentucky to use him as a go-to option on the block - even though he did shoot 59% from the floor. He also came close to having a 1:1 A/TO ratio which is pretty good for a big man, especially a freshman who averaged over 10 points per game.

He's an unselfish player who sees the court well. He isn't able to be a facilitator in the post at the moment because he gets pushed off the blocks to quickly, but can pass the ball when facing the basket. His passing skills date back to his high school days where he would bring the ball up the court at times and gravitate to the perimeter. Those days are gone thankfully, but he's able to find cutters still when he has the ball outside of the paint. Of the draftable big men in this year's draft, Noel only trailed Gorgui Dieng in assists per possession.

Noel's best way to score early on in his career, besides transition and offensive glass points, may be his face up game. Right now, the biggest thing holding him back in that area is the lack of a jumpshot. However, he has an elite first step and is able to drive either way off the dribble. He isn't a great ball handler, but with his quickness and athleticism, he's good enough to put it on the floor once or twice and finish at the rim. He also has good body control at the rim, but his strength hurts him in this area as well. He also has only average touch at the rim and misses some easy bunnies when he isn't able to throw down with a dunk. He shot 71% at the rim, but could have been even better given his physical profile

Defensively is where he will make his biggest impact, as he projects to be a major game changer on that end of the court. Nobody in college basketball averaged a higher combination of blocks and steals per 40 minutes than Noel did. He covered more ground than anyone in college basketball and he was able to do it both vertically and horizontally. He did an excellent job at blocking shots from a secondary level and did so with either hand. He has great instincts when it comes to blocking shots, displayin great timing and anticipation. Noel is blessed with the ability to come over and block a shot at the last minute and doesn't have to cheat to post high block numbers.

Most of his blocks come from helpside defense, as he struggles to hold his position in man to man post defense. He only weighed 206 pounds at the combine in Chicago, although he says he lost weight during the injury. He was above 220lbs while playing at Kentucky and has already added more weight since Chicago just a few weeks ago. By the time he is ready to play next year, I don't think he will have a problem getting up to 230lbs. He still will struggle to hold position inside, but he will at least not be working against the odds as one of the lightest big men ever.

While Noel has great anticipation when it comes to getting blocks and steals, his overall defensive mechanics and awareness need work. He is solid in this area, but relies too much on his athleticism right now.

Noel has a ton of upside, but there is also some injury concerns and risk that come along with picking him. Teams will need to rely on their doctors recommendations, but ACL injuries have been easier to come back from in recent years. At the same time, Noel has very skinny legs and looks like an injury waiting to happen every time he flies into the air or dives onto the floor.

Having the number one pick puts the Cavaliers in a tough spot this year. They could choose to take Noel, but will do so knowing that he could turn into a walking injury and be ridiculed for their selection for years to come. At the same time, there really isn't anyone in the draft that has the same game changing potential that Noel possesses. Passing on him for someone that turns out to simply be just a good starter could create backlash as well.

Given the Cavs roster however, I think they would be smart to consider Otto Porter. The Cavaliers already have a player in build around in Irving and while another star would be great, Porter is the kind of complimentary second or third option that will be guaranteed to help a team win. He also fills a position of need and will make an immediate contribution. Plus the Cavs have recently used a top 5 pick on a power forward who can't shoot and Noel doesn't compliment someone like that much. Noel is more of a power forward currently, himself.

The debate between Porter and Noel is an interesting one and should be looked at with more seriousness. Noel is not the consensus first overall pick in the same way guys like Anthony Davis or even Kyrie Irving was a few years ago. The Cavs can go in another direction at #1 and they seem to be at least considering Porter. They were in love with Porter and would have taken him at #3 if they didn't luck into winning the lottery.

Scouting Report: Brandon Davies

At one point in time, Brandon Davies was more known for being Jimmer Fredette's teammate and his violation of BYU's honor code. Playing alongside Jimmer, Davies was an afterthought in scouts minds watching BYU games at the time, but has slowly maneuvered himself into potentially being selected in the 2013 NBA Draft. He's done so through improvement and an increased role - a role that features him as a rare playmaker and go to guy in the post. If a team is looking for the next Draymond Green in this draft, he's the closest thing to him you will find in terms of style of play. He possesses a true post game, toughness, craftiness, high IQ, good footwork, and a strong passing ability.

Since the season has ended, Davies has seen his stock increase with good showings at both Portsmouth and Chicago. He was the MVP of the event in Portsmouth. The previous two MVPs, Jimmy Butler and Kyle O'Quinn both went on to be drafted. At Chicago, he helped himself by showing more of a faceup game and measuring with legitimate power forward size.

Showing well at these events has been big for Davies because his role is certain to change in the NBA. Its unlikely that Davies will ever be featured as a go to player offensively in the post, so he will have to show that his game can transition to more of a face up threat. He will be used more in pick and roll/pop situations and showing that he can knock down the mid-range jumper consistently will be key. Neither are things that he got to do much of at BYU, although he did fare well shooting jumpers from 15 feet. Davies was even able to hit 5 of 14 college 3-pt attempts this year.

Even though he will need to play a different style in the NBA, Davies post game is far from worthless. For one, seeing him in a featured role has also forced him to become a decision maker. In that aspect, Davies has done a great job making decisions from the post.

Davies also shows plenty of patience in the post and handled the double teams he routinely saw with relative ease. He's an excellent passer from the high post and its not him just simply kicking it out to the open man. He founded cutters consistently, adjusted shots in midair to instead pass to a teammate, and developed all sorts of crafty ways to deliver the ball to teammates.

Davies ability to work hard off the ball is also evident through his post game. He constantly worked for deep position inside and sealed off his defender uses that solid base of his. He seeks out contact and is always looking to put his body on someone. His teammates did a great job rewarding him for his hard work by the way of post entry passes. Unlike most teams nowadays, Davies was able to kick the ball back out of the post, reestablish better position, and be confident that he would get the ball back. He is a natural with his back to the basket and really thrived as the focal point of an inside-outside attack.

In terms of post moves, Davies has them too. He uses his pivot foot as well as anyone and his footwork overall is excellent. He's shown off a little "dream shake", numerous up and under moves, a quick face up move off the bounce, and plenty of other moves. When it comes to having a bag of tricks to go to, Brandon Davies is your man in this draft. He definitely has an old school post game.

He does tend to be overly predictable. While he has plenty of flare, he almost always ends up going over his left shoulder. In college, players are more prone to flail at all the style and fall into Davies' trap. In the NBA, the scouting report will eventually catch up to him to the point where he will need to establish more moves going over his right shoulder. He has shown that he can hit shots with his left hand, he just needs to get more comfortable making moves towards that side of the basket.

Another one of Davies moves is a big time pump fake, one that will draw comparisons to Sam Young's back at Pitt. Once again though, it will be far less effective in the NBA due to scouting reports and smarter players. He does his pump fake with only one hand and it should be obvious that he isn't going to shoot out of that position. Its just a reaction thing, but NBA players will know to look for it and be more disciplined on not biting on it.

Still, that is just one of Davies' crafty moves and its a good example of just how creative he is. Its a big part of his game and some of it certainly will translate and help him in the NBA. With all his hesitation moves, he will be able to at least keep shotblockers at bay. Thats big for Davies because he isnt the most explosive player around the rim. With his strength and moves though, he was able to convert 76% of his shots at the rim - a very high number. Davies understands how to attack shotblockers by going right into their body. He also will do a lot of reverse finishes to use the rim to help shield his shot from getting blocked.

Davies is also able to make quick reads in the post and make some deceptively quick moves to the basket off the bounce. He's a solid ball handler from the power forward spot and while he won't blow by a lot of guys, he does know how to use one or two dribbles effectively to get him a better shot. Davies attacked the rim off of one or two dribbles a lot this year.

His transition to the NBA will actually be similar to Cody Zeller's. Davies too was asked to play around the rim and attack a lot, while showing that he struggled to finish against good athletes. They both showed passing skills, high IQs, and flashed the ability to play more of a stretch forward role when they had the chance. Davies isnt as quick as Zeller, but he is tougher and more skilled with his back to the basket.

Davies is certainly a guy that you have to watch his best games and balance them out by watching his worst games. At this best, he looks unstoppable in the post. But Davies wasn't always facing the greatest competition. When he did, you could really see his struggles finishing inside. Davies still scored plenty against top competition, but was inefficient in two games against Baylor and Gonzaga, as well as Iowa State and Notre Dame (to his credit though, Davies was still able to get to the line against these opponents, something he does very well).

He's also a guy that the more you watch him play, the more you appreciate him simply because he shows more and more creativity each game. Whenever you watch Davies, you are bound to see him bust out a new move or make a pass you usually don't see anyone else make.

Defensively, Davies struggled a lot with foul trouble. He plays the game physically on defense as well and is aggressive, but it ends up taking him out of games too much. Way too much for a star player like Davies. Davies, however, also had to deal with playing behind a very weak perimeter defense that forced BYU to switch to zone defense a lot later in the season. Watching Davies in the zone, you can see just how coordinated he is and how well he understands where to be on defense. He is not the quickest guy laterally, but his coordination will help him hang with quicker power forwards in the league. As will his strong frame and 7'2 wingspan.


He came up with a very high amount of steals for a power forward which is indicates that his athleticism may be a bit underrated. While Davies won't be a playmaker or a intimidating presence on defense, he does project as a solid positional defender as long as he keeps his fouls down.

In terms of rebounding, Davies isn't your typical second round steal at PF who puts up huge rebounding numbers. He did exceed 10 rebounds per 40 minutes each of his past three seasons however. He does a good job rebounding in his area and pulls down the ball with power. He's a guy you can trust to come down with the boards he should. He always boxes out and throws his body to his man and is a great team rebounder, who is more focused on just helping a teammate get the rebounder than simply being out to pad his own stats.

Overall, Davies will need to make a transition offensively in the NBA, but it is something he has already shown he will be able to make if his play at Portsmouth and Chicago are any indication. He seems to be a better shooter than the numbers indicate and his craftiness should translate to the pick and roll game as well. He certainly is already does a good job setting hard screens.

While Davies was a star at BYU, he has great qualities of a role player and should have no problem changing roles - just as Draymond Green did this year for the Warriors. He's unselfish, has a high IQ, plays with energy and toughness, knows how to set up his teammates, and is a high character guy by all accounts. He seems to be willing to do whatever his team needs him to do in order to win. At BYU, it was to be the focal point of the offense out of the post. In the NBA, his role will be more confined, but could be just as important to a playoff team. Right now, Brandon Davies is looking like a solid second round steal with the ability to come in and make an impact right away.

Scouting Report: Grant Jerrett

Grant Jerrett was part of Arizona's very talented recruiting class this past season, when they brought in three big men all in the top 15 by RSCI rankings. As expected, playing time was a problem and Jerrett ended up splitting time at power forward with fellow freshman Brandon Ashley. By the end of the year, playing time was still inconsistent for Jerrett and it looked more like Ashley would earn the starting spot heading into next year. With two more talented forwards coming to Tuscon next year (Aaron Gordon and Rondae Jefferson), Jerrett's playing time situation didn't look like it would improve much. So instead of settling for another year of playing 20 minutes a game at the most, Jerrett decided to declare for the NBA Draft.

It is an interesting decision for sure. Generally, if you have to leave your college team because of playing time, that isn't a good sign. But this Arizona Wildcat team is very talented up front and filled with multiple NBA prospects. Ashley, Tarczewski, and incoming forwards Rondae Jefferson and Aaron Gordon may have more upside than Jerrett, but Jerrett has NBA size and a skillset fit for the power forward position.

This year at Arizona, Jerrett was mainly a pick and pop threat. He has an odd looking shot, but a very consistent stroke without any unnecessary movement. He also has a fairly high release point and his jumper looks similar to the Spurs' Matt Bonner. Over half of his shot attempts this season were three point attempts, which should give you a good idea of what kind of player he projects to be as a pro.

He shot 40% from 3-pt range and 82% at the line, both very impressive numbers for a freshman big man. He has a big body that helps him set screens and he does a good job getting himself open when popping out behind the 3-pt line. He doesn't force up any shots and has a very pure, balanced stroke.

As an athlete, Jerrett doesn't have the body you'd expect from a NBA player. He looks very unathletic, uncoordinated, and out of shape. He's a little chubby, has high shoulder, and will never be the most explosive or quickest big on a team. But Jerrett is more athletic than he looks and moves pretty well once you can get past looking at his awkward running style.

The biggest asset he has physically is his size. Even though his frame isn't that of a normal basketball player, he does have a body that can take up space and bang inside. At this point, Jerrett shies away from contact and doesn't have much of a post game, but that can change once he gets stronger. Its obvious that his frame hasn't had any kind of weight training and he gets backed down in the post too easily for a guy his size. His height may never be used to its full capabilities inside, but it will allow him to get his jumper off with ease.

Unsurprisingly, Jerrett was just an average at best finisher at the rim. He didn't show he could finish with contact nor was he very explosive. But he did show good touch around the rim and the ability to move around the baseline without the ball. You have to keep in mind that Jerrett wasn't featured in the offense much this year so there may be some things he is capable of that he just hasn't shown yet.

Still, up to this point there is no notable mid-range game or post game. He shot poorly on his 2-pt jumpers, although they were scarce.

Jerrett does have a fairly good feel for the game though and is able to put the ball on the floor when the defense closes out on him. He is a skilled player who can finish with both hands as well. Compared to Brandon Ashley, Jerrett relies on his size and skills more while Ashley lives more off of athleticism and feel for the game.

In the NBA, Jerrett will be more suited for a team that wants to spread the court and run pick and pop plays. Unlike other stretch 4s, he isn't a guy who can also beat you in transition, so a halfcourt offense is more suited for his needs. His conditioning needs a lot of work as he was seen with his hands on his hips and breathing heavily often at Arizona.

Defensively, Jerrett doesn't have the strength to handle back to the basket guys yet, but did a surprisingly good job getting out and defending the pick and roll in space. His footwork improved throughout the year and he did a good job recovering and picking up block shots. He averaged 2 blocks per 40 minutes which is a testament to his timing and ability to not take himself out of defensive plays. There is also some truth that defenders weren't intimidated by his presence inside.

Overall, Jerrett isn't your typical one and done prospect despite his high ranking out of high school. It was a shock to see him enter the draft and while it may not have been the wisest decision, it is now too late to turn back. Getting an invite to the Chicago combine was a good sign and he was able to show his size and shooting ability there. He was said to be one of the best shooting big men at the event.

When it comes to stretch 4s, I like his upside more than Kenny Kadhi or Ryan Kelly, but teams don't usually look to develop a stretch 4. Teams generally take a stretch 4 with the idea of them contributing to their team sooner than later. For Jerrett, he still needs to gain plenty of experience and get himself in shape before contributing. Thats what makes his draft stock interesting - I don't think a team wants to use a first rounder on a stretch four that will be in the D-League the next two years. Its more likely to see Jerrett go towards the mid to late second round range. His game actually fits Europe well so that could be a good option for him to develop the next couple of years if he believes he has the maturity to play overseas. 

Scouting Report: Carrick Felix

Carrick Felix has taken an interesting path to get to this point in his career. He was an under the radar prospect in high school, ended up playing JUCO ball alongside Pierre Jackson, and was once committed to play at Duke following that. Felix ultimately ended up at Arizona State (where he has played the last 3 years) and didn't emerge onto the draft radar until this season at the age of 22 (he will be 23 when the 2013-14 NBA season begins).

Anytime a player struggled to make a big impact until his senior season, there will be red flags to answer. For Felix, he has certainly matured over the years. The birth of his daughter this past July forced him to mature and gave him a new focus on the game of basketball. During this past year, Felix also earned his master's degree in Liberal Studies.

But it just wasn't a new found focus on the game that helped him. Arizona State and coach Herb Sendek opened up their offense into a more pro-oriented system this year when he added a couple of former NBA coaches to his staff. Part of the reason for the change of system was to take advantage of freshman point guard Jahii Carson's skillset, who also played a big part in the emergence of Carrick Felix.

Playing in a more open offense, the game looked like it came easy to Felix. You could tell that Felix had played next to a dynamic point guard before (Pierre Jackson) and his ability to work off of Carson was excellent.

Felix isn't much of a playmaker himself, instead he's a guy who you usually will only see taking a maximum of two dribbles. He doesn't have much of a mid-range game either. But what he does is fill his role very well and takes smart shots.

Most of his points come from cuts to the rim, beating guys in transition, offensive rebounds, and cuts spot up 3-pters. As NBA statsheads will tell you, scoring from those spots on the court is an efficient way to make a living. He doesn't over-complicate anything, Felix just makes the plays that are given to him.

His best asset is his motor and you can see him consistently beating the other nine guys down the court on both ends. He became a guy who could get chase down blocks in transition. He was also very versatile and whenever he was covering a power forward, he made it very hard for them to keep up with him running the floor.

In the halfcourt, Felix was able to get to the rims with straight line drives to either direction. He has a good first step and is an explosive finisher in the lane. When he can, he will finish with an emphatic dunk over the defense. The best thing about his drives are that he knows his limitations. He knows he doesn't have an in-between game or the ability to change directions and weave through opponents. Because of that, he makes very few mistakes. He takes to dribbles to the rim and if the lane is open, he will finish. If not, Felix is perfectly content on kicking the ball back out and does a solid job passing.

He will never be the most creative player or much of a scorer, but he will have a very easy transition to the NBA. What he did at Arizona State is the same thing he will do in the NBA. He won't need to tone down his game at all and teams will never have to question his energy level. They also don't have to worry about his maturity or work ethic.

In terms of shooting the ball, he has made significant strides every single year but still needs to get better. He shot 37.4% from three, up from his two previous rates of 30% and 20%. The adjustment to the NBA 3-pt line will be a concern as he is finally just getting himself accommodated to the college line. A guy like him will need to consistently make shots to be able to play in the NBA and he will likely need to spend time in the D-League until he gets used to the NBA line. He does do a nice job sliding to the short corner behind the arc and hitting those 3s. Felix certainly understands where the most efficient shots are on the court.

His free throwing shooting also isn't a good sign for his overall touch. As I said before, Felix hardly ever shoots a mid-range jumper or any floaters. And his free throw shooting percentage of 65% makes you believe he doesn't even shoot inside the arc during practices. His shooting didn't get better as the season went on either. He shot just 61% from the line in conference play.

Defensively, Felix can be a valuable asset. He is a bouncy athlete with a very high motor. In college, he was able to cover just about any position on the court. He came up with steals and blocks, displayed good hands, and attacked the glass hard for rebounds. Felix has worked on his body over the years too and has added a good amount of bulk. He doesn't have a great build to be a power wing, but he certainly has the mindset. With a nonstop motor, long arms, and a good defensive IQ Felix projects to be an above average defender at the next level.

Overall, Carrick Felix looks to be your prototypical mid to late second round pick. He needed the right system in college to flourish and it will be even more important that he finds a good situation in the NBA. Even with the right situation though, he will need to improve his shooting to even see the court. Still, Carrick Felix is a low maintenance guy who has the motor and maturity teams like at the end of their bench. He won't  have a problem transitioning to a role player in the NBA because he pretty much already is one. Look for him to go to smart team in the 50s. He could turn into a poor man's version of Jimmy Butler down the line.

2013 Point Guard Prospects By the Numbers

In part two of our look at the "other" point guards in the draft, I examine each of their statistics and put some meaning behind their numbers. All stats are courtesy of hoop-math.com, a site dedicated to logging play by play data. Big thanks to them for all the work they do. These numbers aren't perfect because box scores aren't always accurate, but they do give you a pretty clear picture with the large sample size.

% of Shots at the Rim

Myck Kabongo - 53%

Ray McCallum - 45%

Lorenzo Brown - 39%

Nate Wolters - 30%

Shane Larkin - 28%

Pierre Jackson - 25%

Phil Pressey - 25%

Erick Green - 23%

Isaiah Canaan - 21%

Matthew Dellavedova - 12%

FG% at the Rim

Nate Wolters - 67%

Erick Green - 67%

Ray McCallum - 66%

Pierre Jackson - 64%

Shane Larkin - 62%

Lorenzo Brown - 61%

Myck Kabongo - 60%

Isaiah Canaan - 56%

Matthew Dellavedova - 53%

Phil Pressey - 45%

Assisted at the Rim 

Ray McCallum - 39%

Nate Wolters - 26%

Pierre Jackson - 24%

Lorenzo Brown - 22%

Erick Green - 21%

Matthew Dellavedova - 21%

Shane Larkin - 18%

Myck Kabongo - 14%

Isaiah Canaan - 13%

Phil Pressey - 7%

Analysis: Myck Kabongo gets to the rim as well as any player, but thats about his only move. He doesn't do a good job at controlling himself on the way to the basket and is in the bottom half in terms of FG% at the rim. 

You can also see that Ray McCallum got a lot of easy buckets at the rim, but did a good job playing without the ball in his hands. Detroit really pushed the pace and McCallum slid over to the off guard spot without a problem at times. On the contrary, you can see that Canaan, Pressey, and Kabongo are the 3 guys who NEED the ball in their hands the most to be effective.

If you're looking for the best finisher, it looks like a toss up between Erick Green and Nate Wolters. Green's numbers are especially impressive given the lack of talent around him and the competition he went up against. He still showed the ability to move without the ball and was able to finish in the lane thanks to his soft touch. 

Pressey, Canaan, and Dellevadova faired really poorly based of these numbers. That shouldn't be a surprise. All three guys were hesitant to go to the rim, thus limiting their chances, but they were still unable to be efficient. And while Canaan and Dellavedova make up for it with their outside shooting, its something Pressey will really need to improve on in order to keep defenses honest.

% of 2-pt Jumpers Taken

Erick Green - 49%

Lorenzo Brown - 39%

Phil Pressey - 37%

Nate Wolters - 35%

Matthew Dellavedova - 33%

Isaiah Canaan - 29%

Shane Larkin - 28%

Pierre Jackson - 26%

Ray McCallum - 24%

Myck Kabongo - 23%

FG% 2-pt Jumpers

Shane Larkin - 45%

Nate Wolters - 45%

Erick Green - 43%

Isaiah Canaan - 42%

Matthew Dellavedova - 42%

Phil Pressey - 38%

Pierre Jackson - 35%

Ray McCallum - 35%

Lorenzo Brown - 30%

Myck Kabongo - 12%

% of 2-pt Jumpers Assists

Pierre Jackson - 13%

Isaiah Canaan - 12%

Ray McCallum - 10%

Erick Green - 10%

Shane Larkin - 9%

Matthew Dellavedova - 4%

Lorenzo Brown - 3%

Nate Wolters - 3%

Phil Pressey - 2%

Myck Kabongo - 0%

Analysis: Once again, I think Nate Wolters and Erick Green measure up the best in this area. Both get a lot of shots off in the mid-range area and make a high percentage. And in the NBA, the have the size and feel for the game to continue to have success in the mid-range area.

Lorenzo Brown and Myck Kabongo were the two with the worst numbers. Neither did very well at the rim either, although both get most of their offense from inside the arc. That obviously brings up some questions with how they will be able to score in the NBA. Both will need to improve their pace of play as well of their jumpers to be able to play in the NBA.

Shane Larkin shot as well as anyone from the 2-pt range and probably has the best floater of anyone in the group. But his ability to get his mid-range jumper off and change speeds is still holding him back from being on the level of Erick Green and Nate Wolters. The same can be said for Pierre Jackson, although he didn't shot the ball as well the rest.

% of Shots from 3-pt Range

Matthew Dellavedova - 55%

Isaiah Canaan - 51%

Pierre Jackson - 49%

Shane Larkin - 44%

Phil Pressey - 38%

Nate Wolters - 35%

Ray McCallum - 31%

Erick Green - 29%

Myck Kabongo - 25%

Lorenzo Brown - 22%

3-pt FG%

Matthew Dellavedova - 40%

Erick Green - 39%

Shane Larkin - 39%

Nate Wolters - 38%

Isaiah Canaan - 36%

Pierre Jackson - 36%

Ray McCallum - 33%

Phil Pressey - 32%

Myck Kabongo - 30%

Lorenzo Brown - 27%

% of 3-pt Shots Assisted 

Myck Kabongo - 75%

Erick Green - 66%

Lorenzo Brown - 65%

Matthew Dellavedova - 62%

Ray McCallum - 51%

Pierre Jackson - 47%

Nate Wolters - 46%

Isaiah Canaan - 41%

Phil Pressey - 39%

Shane Larkin - 37%

Analysis: Matthew Dellavedova shows why he's in this discussion to begin with as he hit 3-pt shots at the best rate and also the highest volume. 

After him, the next 4 guys in terms of volume 3-pt shooting also happen to be the smallest. Pressey, Jackson, Larkin, and Canaan all get a lot of their offense from deep. Small guys have to be able to knock down shots consistently and for Pressey and Jackson there is a question with just how good of shooters they are. You also see why there is reason to question a guy like Jackson's shot selection and ability to run an offense. Despite his ability to break down a defense, he takes a lot of deep 3-pters outside of the flow of offense. While Jackson can be a dynamic scorer at times, he isn't consistently solid at just making the simple/right plays. That hurts his overall PG skills.

On the other end of the spectrum, its impressive how little Erick Green settles for 3-pt shots despite his success from there. Part of it may because of his shot release - his shooting mechanics have been developed for him to get mid-range jumpers off - not shoot from deep. But there is no doubt that he is one of the best shooters in this group.

Shane Larkin may not be a better shooter than Dellavedova, but he is certainly dynamic and may be the best at creating the shot next to Isaiah Canaan. He had the least amount of 3-pters assists, but still hit 39% at a high volume. Combine that with his 2-pt shooting prowess and there is little doubt he can light it up from all over the court. He's got some poor man's Steph Curry to him even though he's shorter and not QUITE the shooter.

Overall: The most balanced scorers look to be Erick Green and Nate Wolters. Both had a lot of pressure on them to score the ball, but still succeeded. Neither racked up the assists like other prospects, but they both have two of the better basketball IQs among the group. Their ability to score all over the floor and be a threat will make their passing game that much more lethal. And both do have the passing skills, they just weren't asked to show them that much at their respective schools. Erick Green will have a bigger transition to make as he played off ball more than any other prospect.

Phil Pressey, Myck Kabongo, and Lorenzo Brown all have question marks about their ability to score the ball and will have to show that they can hit jumpers more consistently. Pierre Jackson appeared to be on another level as those guys, but didn't show the balance and shooting ability you'd like to see from a guy marketed as a dynamic scorer.

Shane Larkin looked good according to these numbers, but it will be interesting to see how he does against better athletes who don't have to give him as much space. Once he gets to the NBA, he will need to find a way to shoot from mid-range. If he does, he has the makings of a poor man's Steph Curry.

Examining The PGs Outside of Burke, MCW, and Schroeder

One of the most intriguing positions this year is the lead guard position. The position is far from top heavy with just Trey Burke a lock for the lottery. It even lacks any other locks for the first round besides Michael Carter-Williams and CJ McCollom if you count him. What it does have is a lot of second round depth and a lot of competition. You can be certain that there will be another PG besides the ones mentioned above going in the first round, but the question is who? There are plenty of names to choose from and all of them have an argument to go within the first 30 picks. The second round could see quite a few point guards taken, which has not been a trend of the past couple of years. This draft lacks the surefire starters, but it could produce as many quality NBA rotational players since at least 2009.

Trey Burke is by far and away the best point guard in this class and is also arguably the safest pick in the entire draft. Depending on who wins the lottery, he could even go #1 overall. At the end of the day, I don't see a likely scenario where he slips out of the top 5.

Burke doesn't have the measurables or athleticism of your typical top 5 point guard. He might not even measure 6-0 and isn't ultra quick or explosive. But what he does have is an advanced knowledge of the game. Burke understands when to attack, when to pass, and how to get his teammates the ball where they need it. He runs the pick and roll like a surgeon and is always in complete control of the offense. He can get his points when needed, but he is also a great passer who makes his teammates better.

His predecessor, Darius Morris, took an entire year before he understood John Beilein's complex system enough to gain his trust. Thats why he was one of the most improved players statistically his sophomore season. Its just very hard to adjust to Beilein's offense as a freshman.

Yet Trey Burke was good enough to start his freshman year and allowed plenty of freedom from John Beilein. Based off that alone, you could tell that this kid was going to be special.

When I'm evaluating point guard prospects, I take a especially close look at their ability to control the tempo of the game, I also like to see how they handle adversity, run the pick and roll, change speeds, and balance scoring and passing. A point guard cannot disappear during the game. A point guard has to be the rock of the team. That is what I am looking for, guys with those traits. Trey Burke has all of that. 

There are other guys in this draft that lack these things, but have gotten by on potential. Myck Kabongo comes to mind immediately. You can even include Lorenzo Brown to an extent as his develop as a point guard isn't what you'd like to see from a junior. Michael Carter-Williams fits as well, although he's viewed on a higher tier as the rest of these guys. If you want to read more on him, check out my latest Stock Attack.

I want to focus more on the rest of the collegiate point guards in this piece and give a good overview on what to expect from each of them. All of these guys have a chance to stick in the NBA.

Nate Wolters

Strengths: Wolters is known for his scoring, but his biggest asset may be the way he attacks a defense. He knows how to read a defense and react. He understands angles and forces defenses to commit to him. He's a good passer who does an excellent job getting his teammates in good spots. He is also a very tough competitor and a gym rat. His jumper got better every year and he is constantly looking for ways to perfect it. There is a stigma around him that he's a just a shooter, but he's a very balanced scoring who looks to attack off the bounce more often than not. He should be very good in the pick and roll as he really has a good feel with the ball in his hands. In a lot of ways, he reminds me of Jeremy Lin. 

Weaknesses: Wolters is just a average athlete and will need to get stronger to play at the next level. He lacks the explosiveness to be a great finisher around the rim. He also struggles to stay in front of players, although he did a great job funneling Trey Burke into help defense in the NCAA tournament. Wolters has good height to help him overcome some of his shortcomings athletically, but below average length for his size. 

Shane Larkin

Strengths: Larkin is very quick and is nearly impossible to contain in the pick and roll. He's a pure shooter with a quick release. He also has good touch inside with a very reliable floater and is able to change speeds. He did a good job mixing up his scoring and his passing this year. He has excellent burst and can beat you in many different ways. He's very comfortable shooting off the dribble in either direction and its very tough to stop him. He does a good job getting his jumpers off, but he doesn't look to settle for just jumpers. Larkin is also a very confident and competitive player who doesn't get rattled.

Weaknesses: Larkin will measure out at under 6-0 at the combine most likely. And while he is very quick and fast, he isn't the most explosive player. He lacks a great build, although he is stronger and tougher than he looks. He also will have to continue to prove his passing abilities and show that he is a true point guard. His in between game also needs work. Defenses in the NBA won't be as afraid of his quickness, so he will have to deal more with tighter defense and NBA length. He didn't see much of that in college because his speed forced teams to go under screens and give him room. He also struggles to get all the way to the rim even though his floater game render that a moot point in college.

Erick Green

Strengths: Erick Green was arguably the best scorer in the country this season and a large part was due to his silky smooth jumper. He's very quick and had no problem creating space to get shots off and elevating over opponents. He has a great mid-range game and is effective in the pick and roll. Green also is lethal in transition where he forces a defender to stop him dead in his tracks if they want to prevent a bucket. Green has a high basketball IQ and is very unselfish, despite his scoring numbers. At Virginia Tech, they needed him to be a scorer so that is what he did, but it doesn't mean he can't run point guard. He just didn't have a good team around him. Finally, Green is a good defender who managed to play hard on that end of the court well. He is obviously very well conditioned.

Weaknesses: Green has spent his time at Virginia Tech being a scorer and hasn't had time gaining experience as a true point guard. He will have to learn the position as he goes in the NBA. Green also has a narrow frame and lacks strength. He could have trouble defending stronger guards. Green also may struggle against physical defense. His lack of success in college in terms of winning will also be something teams will look for answers to.

Phil Pressey 

Strengths: Pressey is a pure point guard who gets into the lane at will and finds teammates. He plays with a ton of confidence and with the sense that he is always the best player on the court. He is one of the few pass first point guards in college nowadays and possessing outstanding vision. He's a creative passer and is able to create plays from nothing. He does an excellent job pushing the ball in transition and can stop and pull up on the move. There is plenty of fight with Pressey and he wants to win badly. He always wants the ball in his hands with the game on the line.

Weaknesses: Pressey will have to overcome his size and his inability to finish at the rim at the next level. He also made some questionable decisions down the stretch of games this season. He tries to do too much a lot of times and turned it over more than any other PG prospect. Although he has great vision, his game management needs a lot of work. Pressey had a bit of a down year after most of his teammates left for the NBA last season. He's a solid shooter, but not great and will have trouble getting his shot off in the pros. Defense will also be hard for him and he didn't always play with good effort on that side of the ball.  He lacks the explosiveness or scoring instincts of other small guards who have been successful in the NBA as of late.

Pierre Jackson

Strengths: Jackson is a dynamic player, both in terms of scoring and passing. He was the first player since Jason Terry to lead a BCS conference in scoring and assists. Jackson is very quick and packs a lot of explosiveness in his small frame. He can get to his spots at will on the court, pull up and hit mid-range jumpers, and also knock down deep threes. Jackson also has no problem breaking down defenses and creating for others. He's a competitive, hard working player who doesn't have any glaring weaknesses. He projects as a Nate Robinson type instant offense off the bench, but with better court sense.

Weaknesses: Jackson is another guard who is undersized and may be closer to 5-9 than 6-0. He will struggle defensively and will also need to show a better effort there. Jackson will need to add some bulk to continue to play his style. He also needs to continue to work on his point guard skills by changing speeds and making the simple plays. He turns the ball over a little too much at this point.

Isaiah Canaan

Strengths: Canaan was one of the best scorers in college basketball thanks to his jump shot with unlimited range. He mastered the art of pulling up from deep in transition. He also is able to create his shot with his crossover and step back move from both 3-pt range and inside the arc. Canaan has a strong frame and plays with a chip on his shoulder. He is also very good shooting with his feet set. In terms of putting the ball in the basket, there aren't many guys that do it better than him.

Weaknesses: Canaan is undersized and not a pure point guard. He doesn't get off the ground very quickly. His shot release is also a little slow for a guy who projects as a shooter at the next level. Canaan looks to score more than pass and its not clear whether he has the ability to make plays for others. This year he was able to show improvement in terms of changing speeds. It is also a question of whether he can defend. Canaan struggled to answer many of these questions last summer during skill camps.

Myck Kabongo

Strengths: Kabongo has very good length and quickness for a point guard, enabling him to be a pesky defender and come up with plenty of steals. Kabongo has no problem breaking down defenses and getting into the paint, where he is a solid drive and dish point guard. He has good handles and has budding leadership skills. Kabongo also is a high character guy who has been through a lot in his life. The general skills that Kabongo possess are what many seek in a point guard - high character, defense, pass first, quickness, and the ability to get by defenders.

Weaknesses: Kabongo never put together a good season in college and was suspended for his relationship with a NBA agent. While he seems like a good kid, many believe he is being misled by those around him. Kabongo also has poor mechanics on his shot and lacks a great feel for the point guard position. He only plays at one speed and dominates the ball. He's also turnover prone and needs to get stronger. His ability to run a team will need major work and he'll likely have to spend a year in the D-League at least.

Ray McCallum

Strengths: McCallum turned it over less than any other point guard with the potential to get drafted, despite being a huge part of his teams offense. He is the coach's son and plays like one. He plays under control and at a steady pace. He is able to get all the way to the rim, but also has a developing mid-range game. McCallum is a very good passer as well, although this season he took on the scoring role. Part of the reason his turnovers were so low was because he took a lot of quick jumpers and didn't attempt to force any drives or passes. McCallum is deceptively quick and does a good job running the pick and roll. He is also a solid athlete. 

Weaknesses: McCallum improved his jumper this year, but still shot a fairly low percentage from the 3-pt line. His jumper looked good, however, and he had to take a lot of tough contested shots. There is also a question of whether McCallum is dynamic enough as a player. He doesn't do anything at an elite or even very good level. McCallum also has short arms and can have trouble finishing at the next level. He didn't play against the best competition, but should look better when he is surrounded by better teammates and able to play as a more tradition PG.

Lorenzo Brown

Strengths: Brown possesses very good height and vision for a point guard. He is able to break down defenses and is crafty with his passing and ball handling. He has made the transition from a high school combo guard to a success college point guard while racking up plenty of assists. Brown also does a very good job when he is able to push the ball in transition and has good foot work en route to the rim. He is able to finish in a variety of ways. He's a fluid athlete who uses his long strides to his advantage. He can create his own shots pretty easily thanks to his size, ball handling, and creativity.

Weaknesses: Brown is still learning the nuances of being a point guard and was the leader of a very inconsistent and underperforming North Carolina State team. He is also a poor shooter who saw his shooting numbers drop to record lows this season. Brown also can be too crafty for his own good - often making shots at the rim tougher than they should be and trying to get into seams where he can't fit through. He doesn't do a good job drawing fouls despite his slashing ability, which is a result of him trying to avoid contact. He lacks the strength to finish with contact. He is also old for his class and will be 23 by the time the 2013-14 NBA season kicks off.

Honorable Mention: 

Matthew Dellavedova

Dellavedova is an outstanding shooter and combines that with great size and strength. He has proven he can run a team both in college and at the Olympic level. His experience shows on the court and he passes over the defense very well. Dellevadova knows how to use the pick and roll to his advantage, although he rarely gets to the rim. He's an underrated prospect who gets dismissed because he isn't a very good athlete.

Conclusion:

I believe that Pierre Jackson is the most NBA ready point guard of this group to fill a role. He fits perfectly into the Nate Robinson/Isaiah Thomas role. However, I don't see him ever being a consistent starter which is why I'd consider taking a few other guys over him.

Right now Nate Wolters, Erick Green, Ray McCallum, and Shane Larkin each have a better chance than Jackson of developing into a starter. Each of them also have question marks that could have them glued to the bench or out of the league in a few years. But this is a very solid group and I believe at least one will turn into a NBA starting point guard. Green is the best shooter of the bunch and also looks to be the best defender. He is also able to score at all three levels, has high character, and NBA level quickness/explosiveness which is why I currently have him ranked higher than anyone else on this list.

But McCallum and Wolters are both intriguing guys who could end up being better once they are surrounded by better teammates. They both have very good point guard skills, but were asked to be more of scorers for their teams. While they aren't typical "upside" guys, they could surprise people who aren't familiar with them.

Larkin doesn't have the size of the other three nor does he have the experience. His transition to the NBA looks to be a little rougher which is why I think he shouldn't get selected until Round 2. His upside is also kind of a mystery. The other guys have more defined roles as true point guards and are more ready to contribute which is why I believe they should get some consideration as possible late first round picks.

Finally, we have Isaiah Canaan, Phil Pressey, Myck Kabongo, and Lorenzo Brown. For Kabongo, I see too big of a question mark to invest a first round pick on. He won't be ready to contribute for a few years and will need to grind in the D-League to ever be successful. An unguaranteed contract has his name written all over it.

Canaan doesn't have the point guard skills to ever start in the NBA and if you want a scorer off the bench, Pierre Jackson is a better bet. Canaan to me seems like a guy who will likely be out of the league in a few years. 

Pressey and Brown quite frankly, haven't impressed me. Pressey is a pass first point guard who makes questionable decisions. He can't shoot, defend, or finish inside. Brown failed to lead his college team and is old by NBA draft standards. He has a lot of holes in his game for a 22 year old and the likelihood of him fixing those holes aren't great, especially considering he took a step back this season. 

Stock Attack: Michael Carter-Williams

When I'm evaluating point guard prospects, I take a especially close look at their ability to control the tempo of the game, I also like to see how they handle adversity, run the pick and roll, change speeds, and balance scoring and passing. A point guard cannot disappear during the game. A point guard has to be the rock of the team. That is what I am looking for, guys with those traits.

Trey Burke has all of that. When it comes to Michael Carter-Williams, I'm hesitant to say he possesses any of those qualities. He disappeared from plenty of games. His passing consisted of a lot of drive and kicks and transition feeds. Yes, MCW did post great assists numbers. But how the assists were obtained are more important. When I look at MCW, I ask if he can consistently make plays out of the pick and roll and find teammates. Or if he can control the pace, set the offense, and make the simple plays. Where is his mid-range game? Carter-Williams makes a lot of spectacular plays and is a helluva talent, but he hasn't shown he can be a model of consistency. That is troubling from a point guard prospect.

There were a lot of games where Carter-Williams was quiet for an entire half and dominated the other. For some guys, thats just a matter of them knowing when to take over. For Carter-Williams, it was more of him being taken out of the game by the defense.

We are talking about a guy whose skills aren't up to par. He shoots a very flat shot with inconsistent mechanics. Some say he was a better shooter in HS, but that doesn't mean anything to me after he's had more than a full season at the college level. I saw that he did shoot well in Nike's EYBL events in AAU, but I don't take much stock into that. Those rims are very kind to make the players look better and benefit guys who don't shoot with much arc.

If you can't make shots consistently, the rest of your game better be refined. Carter-Williams is not. His ball handling skills are weak and magnified by his lack of strength. When he drives and the defense doesn't collapse on him to give him a passing option, he struggles to finish. He does have a nice floater, but can't get it off consistently. He lacks an explosive first step. Instead, Carter-Williams has to rely on his above average quickness for his size and a solid crossover. It works, but its much more of a shooting guard move than a point guard.

A point guard shouldn't need to overdribble to get his shot off. A point guard should understand how to change speeds and work the pick and roll game effectively. Burke was never taken out of games because he could always makes plays if he got a ball screen. Carter-Williams has a tougher task to operate in the pick and roll due to his height and he doesn't do himself any favors either. He doesn't change speeds well or mix up his strides. He's very shaky with the ball when two defenders are around him and his passing instincts look much more raw when it comes to more advanced plays.

Again, the drive and kick play is the most simple way for a point guard to get assists. Its the most basic play that any point guard should be able to execute. Carter-Williams can do it with the best of them in college, but  that doesn't make him a point guard. That is just the initial layer to being a point guard and when you look for more layers to his game, they aren't present.

Carter-Williams also struggled mightily against ball pressure as you saw if you watched the Big East Championship game against Louisville. For the first half, MCW and Cuse played well enough to have the lead. In the second half, Louisville turned up their defensive pressure and completely blew out Syracuse. The difference in halves was remarkable and the biggest blame goes to the point guard.

Then there was the Final 4 game against Michigan. Carter-Williams fouled out and went to the bench crying as if the game was over. Except it wasn't and Syracuse almost won the game. But there he was sitting on the bench with his head buried in a towel instead of cheering on his team. A leader doesn't act as if the game is over because he fouled out. Throughout the year, Syracuse was one of the most up and down teams in the country and there wasn't much leadership coming from their point guard. For a guy who should be the rock of the team, Carter-Williams was one of the most inconsistent players - both with his play on the court and in his emotions. You shouldn't ever get too high or too low as a basketball player - especially as a point guard. Its yet another thing Michael Carter-Williams has to overcome.

He gets some comparisons to Shaun Livingston but Livingston was a great athlete coming out of high school while Carter-Williams is just "good" athletically. Also, Carter-Williams wasn't even considered a point guard coming out of HS and there was a reason for that. Shaun Livingston had such pure point guard skills he was compared to Magic Johnson.

Defensively, Michael Carter-Williams has all the tools and good instincts to go with it. He had plenty of steals operating at the top of the zone and while his length and the system certainly helped, his ability to play the passing lanes should somewhat translate to the NBA. The biggest worry about his defense though is that he doesn't have experience at a high level playing man to man defense. And in recent times, Syracuse players have really struggled to make the adjustment. Even guys like Wes Johnson who people believed had all the athletic tools to make up for player in a zone. Right now, its just a very risky proposition to take a Syracuse player for his defensive ability. Carter-Williams could turn out to be very good defensively, but I wouldn't view it as a sure thing.

Potential is a word that is often associated with Michael Carter-Williams when you point out all these flaws. Sure, he has the height that most other point guards don't have. You can't teach size. But its also very hard to learn and improve all his other weaknesses when there are so many. There is potential and then there is the chances a player reaches his potential. I understand that you can't count out a guy improving his skills, but you can say a guy won't grow, but I'll take players with the necessary skills and ability over a guy with height anyday. Those attributes are very hard to improve as well. And at the age of 21, Michael Carter-Williams is far from the youngest player in the draft.

Stock Attack: Mason Plumlee

Every year there are a couple of players that jump out at me as extremely overrated and Mason Plumlee headlines that list in 2013. He's been projected in the lottery, even top 10, all season long and still sits in the lottery discussion today. His stock looks more unstable now with Gorgui Dieng getting a lot of recognition and Steven Adams deciding to enter the draft, but there is still a strong belief that Plumlee will be a solid third big man.

Personally, I've never seen it with him. I've said all season long that Gorgui Dieng is the better prospect and still stand by it. Dieng makes fewer mental mistake, can consistently hit jumpers, and is a bigger presence at the rim.

Scouts like Mason Plumlee because he has improved every year. Thats one way at looking at it. But I see a guy who vastly underachieved his first few seasons given his situation and athleticism. Name me a Duke player who hasn't made big strides under Coach K. Look at how Nolan Smith is looking in the NBA.

This year Mason Plumlee did look much better, in part because he was more aggressive. He wasn't afraid of going to the foul line anymore since his shooting at the line improved.

History says that seniors that improve a lot their final year aren't to be trusted and the eye test gives similar concerns. If it takes you four years to put it together at a school like Duke when you have great athleticism, that sends up some major red flags. Coach K consistently gets the most out of his players, gets them drafted higher than they should be, and then we hear all about how Duke can't produce NBA players. Yet time and time again everyone falls into the trap of Coach K's magic.

Of course, evaluating prospects is a still a case by case basis. While Plumlee has his age and school as red flags, that is no way to determine if a guy is overrated. But when you watch Plumlee play, the amount of mental mistakes he makes throws up yet another red flag.

Then you get to talking about his position. Is he a power forward or a center? His mechanical style, lack of lateral quickness, smarts, or shooting ability suggest that he can't play power forward well. But as a center, his narrow hips and 6'10 wingspan are both major deterrents. You can improve your upperbody strength all you want, but genetically small hips are a different story.

But what about his offensive game, you say? He did put up over 17ppg in the ACC. But what translates? He isn't hitting jumpers at a consistent rate. He constantly got pushed out of good post position on the block due to lack of strength. Plumlee did show off an improved post game this year and as I said, his aggressiveness didn't hurt either. But his post game is still very mechanical. There is no rhyme or reason to his moves. He makes a lot of awful plays the end of successful because of his athleticism and new found confidence. Take away some of that confidence he gained from this season and you are back to a passive player without much else. And its a fact that his confidence will take a hit once he reaches the NBA - it happens to most players.

Plumlee's post moves consist of a nice right handed hook shot and then a lot of freestyle. A lot of stuff he won't get away with at the next level. He can't freestyle his way to the rim in the pros from post position 15 feet out. The help defense is too good.

It is really hard to pinpoint what Plumlee's strengths will be at the next level. Is it his defense or offense? Is he just a good all-around player or a player who isnt good at anything?

I've been leaning towards the latter side so much that I've fallen over. And based of Mason Plumlee's lack of balance, he better be careful he doesn't bust and fall on his face as well.

Is Canadian Warren Ward a NBA Prospect?

Canadian basketball has received plenty of attention in the past year thanks to the influx of talent that has matriculated into the NCAA and also Andrew Wiggins - the best player high school player since possibly LeBron James. In this years draft alone there are potentially 3 first rounders hailing from Canada, with Kelly Olynyk and Anthony Bennett both with a case to be selected in the lottery. Myck Kabongo and his cousin Christian Kabongo both entered their names in the draft as well.

Plenty of Canadian talent is jumping the border to play both high school and college basketball in the states, but Canada also has their own version of the NCAA. It goes by the name CIS and while it has failed to attract Canada's top talent, it seems that the league has slowly grown as basketball becomes a more mainstream sport north of the border. If top tier talent is emerging from Canada, one has to believe that there is some solid talent developing in their college system as well.

The CIS hasnt produced a NBA Draft pick since William Njoku in 1994 who went off the board to the Pacers with the 41st pick. And while that won't change this year, they do have a player by the name of Warren Ward who could end up cracking a D-League roster and working his way up.

Warren Ward played for the University of Ottawa Gee-Gees and has been training in Las Vegas down at Impact Basketball with the likes of Marcus Fizer, Dion Waiters, and a bunch of legitimate NBA Draft hopefuls. And from reports around the web, Ward has been doing more than just holding his own in the gym.

Unfortunately after checking his draft eligibility, Warren's time to declare has past and he will be an unrestricted free agent instead. He was with Ottawa for five years and tore his ACL during the 2011-12 season. Ward was also born in 1989.

I decided to take a look back at a couple of Warren Ward's college games to see if all the fuss was worth it. After all, its not very hard to impress in a workout setting.

My first observation in watching CIS games was the level of competition. Its not great. Warren Ward was the best athlete on the court at all times. Ward stands at 6-6 and has a strong frame to go with it. The pace and intensity of the games aren't very high and there is a lot of room for players to show off their skills.

In the games I watched, Ward has no problem taking defenders down into the post and going to work on them. Unless a double team came, Ward was able to take his time and carve out space to create a good shot. He almost plays like the Kobe Bryant of the CIS. He can play with his back to the basket, hit the turnaround jumper, and also make some basic post moves to the basket. He also directs traffic and runs some point guard as well.

Operating from the perimeter, Warren has a little tougher time. He only shot 30% from the 3-pt line this year (and was 4-25 in the University World Games) and his mechanics are inconsistent. In a two game stretch in February, he shot 1-17 from deep yet still continued to fire away. Thats not necessarily what you want to see from a guy who is physically way more dominant than the rest of his competition.

Ward also relies on his strength a lot to create space as he isn't the most explosive player nor is he the quickest. In the CIS he is allowed to play at his own pace and dictate tempo and has no problem getting to his spots on the court. But when it comes to beating a man with a quick step off the dribble, he struggles. He's a guy who has to get creative with the ball to make plays.

And Ward does have a lot of creativity to his game. To go along with his post game and shooting, Ward also has shown some ability out of the pick and roll and in the transition game. Ward's a very creative passer who can make some impressive dimes, but also makes some boneheaded passes. He averaged 3.8 assists while turning it over 2.9 times. In the University Games he had less than one assist per contest while turning it over 2.1 times a game. As of right now, its safe to call him turnover prone.

There are certainly questions about both his ball handling and decision making and it doesn't help that he's been playing in a league that doesn't match his talent level. He's been able to develop and get away with bad habits, while not really learning how to play a role. On his team, he can basically do whatever he wants. It may come as a surprise, however, that he did not lead his team in scoring.

When you are looking at a below average shooter without any experience playing a supporting role or against top competition, there are a lot of reasons to doubt Ward. Especially considering he's not a great athlete - although he is solid and has above average strength. Ward will have to learn to make a contribution on defense and there will be a big adjustment on that side of the ball as well.

Ward coasted a lot on defense last year, relying on his physical tools to pull down over 6 boards a game. He didn't box out and let his man go on defense plenty of dimes. When he dialed in, Ward was able to be a stopper but the energy and commitment were not there. It is understandable that Ward could've gotten bored at times, but its not exactly what you want to see from a guy who is a long shot to begin with. I'm sure Ward will give better effort in the future and he does have solid defensive tools to work with in the future.

Overall, Warren Ward is certainly a player and could eventually make a D-League team. He certainly had the tools to play at a mid-major plus or high major level if he played college in the states. Not doing so hasn't allowed him to get the necessary coaching or exposure and now he's trying to make that up in a few months span training in Las Vegas. While Ward has a long journey to go - he could even still be getting back some of his athleticism from his ACL injury - Ward is yet another reason Canadian basketball fans have to be proud. 

2013 NBA Mock Draft - Post Declaration Deadline/Pre-Lottery

1. Orlando Magic - FR Nerlens Noel, F/C, Kentucky
2. Charlotte Bobcats - FR Ben McLemore, SG, Kansas
3. Cleveland Cavaliers - SO Otto Porter, SF, Georgetown 
4. Phoenix Suns - SO Trey Burke, PG, Michigan
5. New Orleans Hornets - JR Victor Oladipo, SG, Indiana
6. Sacramento Kings - FR Anthony Bennett, PF, UNLV
7. Detroit Pistons - FR Shabazz Muhammad, SF, UCLA
8. Washington Wizards - SO Cody Zeller, PF, Indiana
9. Minnesota Timberwolves - SR CJ McCollom, G, Lehigh
10. Portland Trailblazers - SO Alex Len, C, Maryland
11. Philadelphia 76ers - JR Kelly Olynyk, PF, Gonzaga
12. Oklahoma City Thunder - FR Steven Adams, C, Pittsburgh
13. Dallas Mavericks - SO Michael Carter-Williams, PG, Syracuse
14. Utah Jazz - FR Archie Goodwin, SG, Kentucky
15. Milwaukee Bucks - 1993 Sergey Karasev, SF, International
16. Boston Celtics - 1994 Dario Saric, F, International
17. Atlanta Hawks - 1992 Rudy Gobert, F/C, International
18. Atlanta Hawks - SO Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG, Georgia
19. Cleveland Cavaliers - 1993 Livio Jean-Charles, F, International
20. Chicago Bulls - JR Jamaal Franklin, SG, San Diego State
21. Utah Jazz - 1993 Dennis Schroeder, PG, International
22. Brooklyn Nets - SR Mason Plumlee, F/C, Duke
23. Indiana Pacers - SR Erick Green, PG, Virginia Tech
24. New York Knicks - JR Gorgui Dieng, C, Louisville
25. Los Angeles Clippers - 1994 Giannis Adetokunbo, SF, International
26. Minnesota Timberwolves - JR Reggie Bullock, G/F, North Carolina
27. Denver Nuggets - SR Jeff Withey, C, Kansas
28. San Antonio Spurs - SR Mike Muscala, F/C, Bucknell
29. Oklahoma City Thunder - SO BJ Young, G, Arkansas
30. Phoenix Suns - Glen Rice Jr, SF, D-League
31. Cleveland Cavaliers - 1994 Mouhammadou Jaiteh, C, International
32. Oklahoma City Thunder - JR Allen Crabbe, SG, California
33. Cleveland Cavaliers - 1993 Alex Abrines, SG, International
34. Houston Rockets - SR Jackie Carmichael, PF, Illinois State
35. Philadelphia 76ers - SR Richard Howell, F/C, North Carolina State
36. Sacramento Kings - SO Adonis Thomas, SF, Memphis
37. Washington Wizards - JR Ray McCallum, PG, Detroit
38. Detroit Pistons - SR Nate Wolters, PG, South Dakota State
39. Portland Trailblazers - SO Myck Kabongo, PG, Texas
40. Portland Trailblazers - SO Tony Mitchell, F, North Texas
41. Memphis Grizzlies - SR Erik Murphy, F, Florida
42. Philadelphia 76ers - SO Shane Larkin, PG, Miami
43. Milwaukee Bucks - JR Tim Hardaway JR, SG, Michigan
44. Dallas Mavericks - 1992 Lucas Noguiera, C, International
45. Portland Trailblazers - FR Ricky Ledo, SG, Providence
46. Utah Jazz - SR Michael Snaer, SG, Florida State
47. Atlanta Hawks - SR Pierre Jackson, PG, Baylor
48. Los Angeles Lakers - JR Andre Roberson, F, Colorado
49. Chicago Bulls - SR Brandon Paul, SG, Illinois
50. Atlanta Hawks - SR Ryan Kelly, PF, Duke
51. Orlando Magic - JR Phil Pressey, PG, Missouri
52. Minnesota Timberwolves - SR Trevor Mbakwe, PF, Minnesota
53. Indiana Pacers - JR Deshaun Thomas, F, Ohio State
54. Washington Wizards - 1991 Bojan Dubljevic, F/C, International
55. Memphis Grizzlies - SR Solomon Hill, SF, Arizona
56. Detroit Pistons - 1991 Nemanja Nedovic, PG, International
57. Phoenix Suns - SR James Ennis, SF, Long Beach State
58. San Antonio Spurs - SR Robert Covington, SF, Tennessee State
59. Minnesota Timberwolves - JR Tony Snell, G/F, New Mexico
60. Memphis Grizzlies - JR Lorenzo Brown, PG, North Carolina State

NBA Mock Draft - Post Draft Order Edition

Round 1

1. Orlando Magic - FR Nerlens Noel, F/C, Kentucky
2. Charlotte Bobcats - FR Ben McLemore, SG, Kansas
3. Cleveland Cavaliers - SO Otto Porter, SF, Georgetown
4. Phoenix Suns - JR Victor Oladipo, SG, Indiana
5. New Orleans Hornets - SO Trey Burke, PG, Michigan
6. Sacramento Kings - FR Anthony Bennett, PF, UNLV
7. Detroit Pistons - 1993 Sergey Karasev, SF, International
8. Washington Wizards - SO Cody Zeller, PF, Indiana
9. Minnesota Timberwolves - FR Shabazz Muhammad, SF, UNLV
10. Portland Trailblazers - SR CJ McCollom, G, Lehigh
11. Philadelphia 76ers - SO Alex Len, C, Maryland
12. Oklahoma City Thunder - FR Steven Adams, C, Pittsburgh
13. Dallas Mavericks - FR Isaiah Austin, PF, Baylor
14. Utah Jazz - SO Michael Carter-Williams, PG, Syracuse
15. Milwaukee Bucks - JR Kelly Olynyk, F/C, Gonzaga
16. Boston Celtics - 1994 Giannis Adetokunbo, SF, International
17. Atlanta Hawks - SO Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG, Georgia
18. Chicago Bulls - JR Allen Crabbe, SG, California
19. Atlanta Hawks - SR Mason Plumlee, C, Duke
20. Cleveland Cavaliers - 1992 Rudy Gobert, C, International
21. Utah Jazz - SR Erick Green, G, Virginia Tech
22. Brooklyn Nets - JR Gorgui Dieng, C, Louisville
23. Indiana Pacers - FR Archie Goodwin, SG, Kentucky
24. New York Knicks - 1993 Dennis Schroeder, PG, International
25. Los Angeles Clippers - JR Reggie Bullock, G/F, North Carolina
26. Minnesota Timberwolves - 1994 Dario Saric, F, International
27. Denver Nuggets - SO BJ Young, G, Arkansas
28. San Antonio Spurs - 1994 Mouhammadou Jaiteh, C, International
29. Oklahoma City Thunder - SR Jeff Withey, C, Kansas
30. Phoenix Suns - JR Jamaal Franklin, G/F, San Diego State

Round 2

1. Cleveland Cavaliers - JR Cory Jefferson, PF, Baylor
2. Oklahoma City Thunder - 1993 Livio Jean-Charles, F, International
3. Cleveland Cavaliers - SO Myck Kabongo, PG, Texas
4. Houston Rockets - SR Nate Wolters, PG, South Dakota State
5. Philadelphia 76ers - JR Tim Hardaway, SG, Michigan
6. Sacramento Kings - SO Adonis Thomas, SF, Memphis
7. Washington Wizards - 1993 Alex Abrines, SG, International
8. Detroit Pistons - SO Tony Mitchell, F, North Texas
9. Portland Trailblazers - SR Richard Howell, F/C, North Carolina State
10. Portland Trailblazers - 1992 Lucas Nogueira, C, International
11. Memphis Grizzlies - SR Pierre Jackson, PG, Baylor
12. Philadelphia 76ers - SR Erik Murphy, F, Florida
13. Milwaukee Bucks - 1991 Glen Rice, SF, NBDL
14. Dallas Mavericks - SR Michael Snaer, SG, Florida State
15. Portland Trailblazers - SR Brandon Paul, G, Illinois
16. Utah Jazz - 1991 Nemanja Nedovic, G, International
17. Atlanta Hawks - JR Doug McDermott, F, Creighton
18. Los Angeles Lakers - JR Phil Pressey, PG, Missouri
19. Chicago Bulls - 1992 Ricky Ledo, SG, Providence
20. Atlanta Hawks - 1992 Bojan Dubljevic, F/C, International
21. Orlando Magic - JR Ray McCallum, PG, Detroit
22. Minnesota Timberwolves - SR Trevor Mbakwe, PF, Minnesota
23. Indiana Pacers - JR Deshaun Thomas, F, Ohio State
24. Washington Wizards - SR Carrick Felix, SF, Arizona State
25. Memphis Grizzlies - SR Ryan Kelly, PF, Duke
26. Los Angeles Clippers - SR Solomon Hill, SF, Arizona
27. Phoenix Suns - JR CJ Leslie, PF, North Carolina State
28. San Antonio Spurs - SR Matthew Dellavedova, PG, St. Mary's
29. Minnesota Timberwolves - 1992 Marko Todorovic, C, International
30. Memphis Grizzlies - SO Jarnell Stokes, PF, Memphis

Scouting Report: Steven Adams

Steven Adams came over from New Zealand halfway through the high school basketball season in his senior year, joining Notre Dame Prep School. From the beginning, it was very obvious that Adams' had a long way to go in terms of getting use to the level of competition, and it was even more apparent when he began play last fall at Pitt. Adams, a consensus top 10 recruit, didn't dominate right away - or at all even, in his one season of college basketball and for long stretches struggled to even make an impact. But as the season progressed, he showed considerable progress as a basketball player. That progress still hasn't put him anywhere close to contributing in the NBA, showing just how raw he was at the beginning of the season.

Adams background is very interesting. The youngest of 18 siblings, all of which are over 6-5 inches tall, basketball has ran in his family. His brothers are all at least 6-10 and 6 of his siblings played basketball for New Zealand. His half sister is an Olympic Gold Medalist in the shot put. When Adams was 13, he lost his father however and took to the streets. So while Adams had a good basketball background, he lacked the teaching needed to develop. It took his brother to get him back on track and set his down the current path he is on. Jamie Dixon discovered him early and quickly sold him on both playing basketball for Pitt and getting an education. Having seen his brothers struggle to make something of their basketball careers, Steven Adams went to Pitt with the goal of also getting an educational. However, with his family needing money, Adams decided it was best to declare for the NBA Draft after his freshman season.

Steven Adams is all about upside. He's only played organized basketball for 6 years and until recently, hasn't had a chance to play against the best competition like his American peers. Standing at at least 6-11 with long arms and a strong base, he has an ideal body for a center. And his ability to move so fluidly at that size is what catches a scouts eye at first glance.

Adams was able to earn minutes at first because of his sheer defensive presence, proving to be a major deterrent inside. He blocked nearly 4 shots per 40 minutes and showed the ability to not just sit by the rim and wait for drivers, but also get block shots away from the rim. Adams mobility is also valuable in defending the pick and roll, where he appears to be very comfortable guarding smaller players in space. Not only does he hedge well, but he also finds himself fairing well against guards when he is switched onto them. Adams isn't afraid to play up on guys and can move laterally to stay in front of them. He is also very good at staying on his feet, partly because he has the ability to block shots without even jumping. He fouled 3 times per 40 minutes, but most were not due to him being over aggressive on going for blocks. He picked up more fouls for shoves in the back and aggressive hedging.

Adams physical strength on defense also projects to be very good heading into the future. Along with the height and the length, Adams has a strong lower body built on genetically thick calve muscles (as seen here). As he learns to stand less upright on defense, he will be very tough to move around in the paint. Combine his strength with his patience on defense and he has all the tools to be an excellent post defender.

Adams will have to add more bulk to his upper body, but it is much easier to develop that then it is the lower body. Plus since defense is played with your feet - and he has the feet of a former soccer player - having a strong lower body is a lot more valuable. But the upper body is important and played a role in his some of his ineffectiveness on offense.

A key going forward for Steven Adams will be rebounding. Based purely off his physical gifts, Adams was a great rebounder this year - pulling down 11.6 boards per every 40 minutes (pace adjusted as always). Adams is also fundamentally sound in this area, always looking to put his body on a man. But moving forward, his sheer size and fundamentals won't put him in the top echelon of rebounding bigs in the NBA. Adams will need to show more aggressiveness and the ability to rebound outside his area moving forward. Right now, he gets a lot of rebounds but leaves a lot more on the table. You'd like to see him develop more of a mean streak and use his strength for. There shouldn't be any times where a player is able to rip the ball from him, but it happens with him far too often.

On occasions where Adams does safely secure a rebound, he shows the presence of mind to look down the court and find an outlet. The good thing about coaching Adams is he hasn't picked up any bad habits and is basically a blank slate for a good big man coach to mold. Thats why finding the right situation in the NBA will be pivotal for him. His first few years he may be overwhelmed by the speed and physicality of the game, but it will be important for him not to be discouraged and realize he has a lot of room to grow. During the interview process, talent evaluators will definitely look at his mental makeup closely and see if he has what it takes to deal with such struggles.

He has shown the ability and eagerness to want to learn and improve so far. Interviews like this one by Draftexpress, make you realize that he's still very much a kid and one that hasn't grown up around this atmosphere. Given that he didn't have a father figure or any guidance during his teenage years, there are additional reasons to question his mental aspect and will to be great. Kiwis generally are known to be laid back people which is not the personality you want to see from a defensive center. He'll likely have to be coddled during his early years in the league, and it will be important for his team to understand that and give him the attention he needs to thrive. If not, there is no sense in drafting him.

Offensively, Adams has a long way to go but shows some interesting things. Against Notre Dame in February, he had a steals and took it the length of the court through traffic and finished with a dunk over a defender. All while looking extremely natural at doing so. The less Adams thinks out there on the court and just does what comes naturally to him, the better he seems to do. The problem is he's still learning the game and trying to understand things, so he does think a little bit too much out there. But that will change once he gets more comfortable and he'll start relying on his instincts more - which seem pretty good.

Right now, his main source of offense is on the glass. Here Adams has a nose for the ball and does a good job coming crashing in for boards. He displays great touch and body control, allowing him to get many tip-ins near the rim.

Like his defense, Adams potential on this end of the court is intriguing because he can be good in both the pick and roll and in the post. Starting with the pick and roll, Adams uses his body well to set wide/effective screens. He rolls off these screens so fluidly and keeps his hands up, always looking for the pass. Adams seems to have a good natural feel how to get open off these plays and knows when to break off his route to the rim and when not to. At times, Adams will come off the roll and stop at the foul line for a ten foot jumper. His body control is so ridiculously good for his size that he makes this look way more easy than it is.

At other times, Adams will roll all the way to the basket and look to catch the ball on the run. He is able to catch the ball in motion using soft hands and avoids picking up charges. He does a good job of moving, catching, and scoring the ball all in one fluid motion.

The third option Adams uses in the P&R game is to get a smaller man on his back and look to establish easy post position. Adams has taken a liking to play with his back to the basket and has look comfortable doing so, which is a great sign moving forward.

Basically starting from scratch in basketball moves at Pitt, he slowly been molded into a post player - adding more moves to his arsenal as the season progressed. At first, Adams was extremely passive when catching the ball in the post. His first instinct was to pass. And that was if he was even able to handle the ball. While Adams originally does a good job establishing position, he caused many turnovers by failing to keep his defender on the back and allowing him to be more aggressive in going for the post entry pass. In time, Adams is slowly learning he has to go and get the ball - not wait for it to come to him.

It also hurts him that he appears a little shy to use his strength to bully guys at times. Its not to say he plays soft - it just seems like he feels it would be too easy to dominate if he fully took advantage of his physical tools. Instead, Adams has shown some emerging skill level in the process. That includes good patience in the post, passing skils, soft touch, quick post moves to either side, a step through move, and enough handles to take the necessary dribbles needed to complete a move. He also displays a good use of pump fakes.

When Adams does catch the ball in the post, he weighs his options, gives teammates time to make cuts to the rim, and if nothing comes open he then chooses to go to work himself.

Besides pick and rolls and post ups, Adams also does a good job moving in space and finding ways to get open. He is a very good cutter for someone his size, a skill that goes along with his ability to crash the offensive glass and score off rolling to the basket after setting a screen. Body control is one of his biggest assets.

Shooting wise, Adams only shot 44% from the foul line, but it seems to be a mental thing 100% of the way. In practice, he is said to be a very good foul shooter. And his mechanics look good - in fact, he almost shoots the ball like a guard with his elbow perfectly tucked in. Unlike most big guys, there seems to be a level of skill to his shot instead of just a flat footed attempted at the rim. He does a really good job getting squared up, as shown on his ability to shoot stopping on the dime while coming off setting a screen. His great mechanics likely go back to the fact that he had no bad habits when he started playing organized basketball.

There are times where Adams misses the rim badly though. He can hit shots all the way out to 15 feet, but does so with a lot of inconsistency. Again, it seems more of a mental things. The guy can shoot as long as he relies on his instincts and doesn't put too much thought into it. Thats a big part of his maturation level - as he learns the game, that will allow him to trust his instincts more.

As I said earlier, getting stronger in the upperbody may be more important to him on the offensive end and that is because he tries to muscle up too many shots right now. And he's usually unsuccessful of even getting the ball up through the rim via contact.

Even though Adams is known as a below average offensive player right now, he has a promising combination of physical tools, lack of bad habits, and willingness to learn the center position to be success. Adams can shoot and has some skill, but you never saw him trying to dribble the ball around or stretch his range out to the 3-pt line. Seeing a player eager to learn how to play in the post is refreshing.

Moving forward, there is no doubting Adams' potential and it is impossible not to see what he could bring to the table down the line. But teams are going to need to do their homework on him and understand what it will take to get him to reach his potential. In terms of sheer potential, Adams has as much of it as anyone in this draft and thats not an exaggeration. And if a team knows what they are doing with him, then I don't think it is out of the question to take him in the lottery or even closer towards the top 5. Patience, some coddling, and a pressure free environment will be key - but the dividends could really pay off in the end. Adams is not for everyone, but he could end up making every team that passes him up in the draft look silly.