Five Biggest Myths of the 2013 NBA Draft

Statement #1: Otto Porter only just started shooting well this year.

A lot of people think Otto Porter's shooting is a fluke because only shot 22% from 3-pt range his freshman season. While that is reasonable, people are missing how great Porter was shooting mid-range jumpers his first season. Porter didn't play AAU and the 3-pt ball wasn't stressed to him as much as most kids. Instead, shooting mechanics were a priority and his are very consistent. According to hoop-math.com, Porter shot an outstanding 51% on 2-pt jumpers last season. This season he worked to extend his range back a few feet which resulted him him taking twice as many threes while making 42.2% of them. Porter will have to adjust even farther to the NBA line, but make no mistake that he can shoot the ball. His situation from year one to two is a lot like a young power hitter who didn't hit a lot of homers his first season, but had a lot of doubles. You know the power is there, it was just shown in a different way.

Statement #2: Cody Zeller will be a major reliability on defense

News flash: Today's NBA is different from the NBA from a decade or two ago. Being a big, strong post defender isn't priority number one for your defensive bigs. NBA bigs mobility and basketball IQ are tested more than ever now and Zeller measures strongly in both facets of the game. Zeller was very good defending in space at Indiana and did a great job hedging on screens. He beats players to spots on the floor to pick up charges, doesn't foul a lot, and has a good motor. While he isn't a big shot blocking deterrent at the rim, he will be great guarding finesse bigs and power forwards. He's not a center and should be paired with a defender who can compliment him with shotblocking ability.

Statement #3: Anthony Bennett has a polished offensive game

This is also false. Anthony Bennett has all the tools to have a very diverse and polished offensive game, but he didn't show it in college. His play in the halfcourt mainly consistent of him drifting around the perimeter and hitting jump shots - which he is very good at. Bennett showed glimpses of his offensive gifts in transition by taking the ball the length of the court, but he was much less aggressive in the halfcourt. Bennett didn't score often from the post nor did he ever show the ability to take defenders off the perimeter. Both of these things that Bennett has the tools to do, but he still has to show it on the court. His offensive game has a lot of potential, but let's not anoint him great at anything yet.

Statement #4: CJ McCollum is the next Damian Lillard

The success of Damian Lillard and the timely rise to stardom of Steph Curry has created a perfect storm for CJ McCollum. While I have always had him in the top ten, he doesn't have the same potential as either of the aforementioned players. However, the success of both players will have a positive effect on his draft stock and it should. You can't ignore how well the last two high scoring lottery picks from small schools has fared and McCollum has a pretty high floor. He's a cerebral kid on and off the court and can flat out score the ball. He's a very hard worker and seems destined to carve out a scoring role off the bench at the very least.

Statement #5: Jamaal Franklin has the potential to be an All-Star

The role that Jamaal Franklin will play at the next level seems to be far from a consensus. People see athleticism and creativeness on offense and automatically relate it to a high upside. Truth is, Franklin is a streaky shooter who possesses average ball handling ability and decision making. That severely limits his upside on offense. He's not a guy you want making plays for you in the NBA. However, Franklin is a tough player who gets after it on defense with great instincts. A coach will need to be able to tone down his offensive game, but if Franklin is willing, he can become a good NBA defender. He'll be able to spark the offensive at times too, but that won't be his game. Franklin's character has both been questioned and praised by onlookers, but it sounds like he's just a guy whose competitiveness has been directed the wrong way at times. Early word out of workouts is that Franklin has been a big time positive presence cheering on fellow prospects. Thats a great sign.

Saturday's Weekend Wrap-Up

Cincinnati vs St. John's

Sean Kilpatrick got off to a hot start this year along with the rest of the Bearcat team. However, as we head into a tougher part of the schedule, both him and the team are looking much more average. The Bearcats have been a team that takes advantage of their athleticism and defense by pressuring teams into tough shots. Now, they have been the team getting bullied on the inside.

Kilpatrick only scored 7 points against St. John's - probably the most athletic team he's faced to date. In his last three games (against New Mexico, St. John's, and Pittsburgh), his best shooting performance was his 3-8 game against Pittsburgh. I've watched each of those games and it seems his stock is deteriorating before our eyes. His 3-pt shooting is now down to 33% and that is supposed to be his calling card at the next level. His driving game isn't working either - he has to try to muscle the way to the hoop and has struggled finishing vs size. The write-up I wrote on Kilpatrick in November is looking on point. I thought I might have been a bit too tough on him after his strong December.

Rutgers vs Pittsburgh

Rutgers' pulled off the upset early on Saturday morning which was the start of 3 ranked Big East teams losing. I've been vocal about how much I like this Panther team, but getting outrebounded 31-21 just isn't their style. Talib Zanna only had 1 rebound and now there is a bit of reservation if he has actually made the jump to one of the better big men in the Big East. He has been fools gold before. He thrives in transition opportunities which won't be as rampant in conference play, but his rebounding is a bit of a mystery. I still really like his awareness on defense. He does a great job covering for Steven Adams' mistakes.

Speaking of Adams, he only had 4 rebounds in 28 minutes. This was a better game for him then the box score indicates though. He continues to make visible progress each game which makes his potential almost something tangible. He has been running the court and moving on offense with purpose. It is amazing just how fluid he is at his height. He does a great job moving from point A to point B on offense and finally looks like he knows where he is going. He's been able to catch the ball on the run and finish all in one smooth motion. He completely shut out every pick and roll attempt Rutgers tried. He is a little slow getting back to his man, which is where Zanna's ability to move comes in handy.

The one area where Adams really needs to improve in the immediate feature is his rebounding. Not his ability to rebound the ball, but his ability to hang onto it after he gets it. He is weak coming down with the ball and gets it taken away from him too many times. Adams needs to develop a mean streak. If he shows this, I'd consider drafting him in the top 5-8.

Lamar Patterson is a talented jack-of-all trade performer who I've liked dating back to high school. but it is time for him to expand himself as a player. He is a capable driver and creator and Pittsburgh desperately needs another aggressor on the perimeter. He needs to step up.

Baylor vs Texas

This game was a bit of a surprise with Texas forcing overtime as Scott Drew serving a suspension, but the Bears ended up winning 86-79.

Cory Jefferson came up huge with 25 points and 10 rebounds. His combination of size, athleticism, and energy is the perfect recipe for an early second round draft pick. He is only listed at 210lbs, but looks much bigger and certainly plays stronger than that. He got most of his points around the rim by using a combination of his aforementioned athleticism and relentlessness. He's a team player and also a very good defender. He's gone against 3 strong frontcourts in his last three games - all games that I watched - against Gonzaga, Texas, and BYU. In those 3 games, he has grabbed a total of 33 rebounds.

Those three games have also been an opportunity to see how Isaiah Austin fairs against strong frontlines and he's done as well as one could ask - tallying 52 points and 30 rebounds over that stretch. Austin gets a lot of flack for his softness, but to his credit, he doesn't shy away from contact. It just isn't his game, therefore, it isn't smart for him to try to battle down low. And it probably never will be given his physical profile. You have to accept Austin for what he is - a skilled power forward with elite coordination and nice ball skills. I think everyone agrees on the basic scouting report for Austin, but what that amounts to in the NBA is up for debate. Stretch forwards can be a dime a dozen, but just how high is Austin's potential? There haven't been many 7+ footers with his ball skills since Dirk, so there is some intrigued. Then again, finding a guy anywhere near Dirk is like hitting the lottery. NBA teams tried time and time again to hit the lottery in the 2000s with European 7 footers, each time failing.

Pierre Jackson had a somewhat erratic game, making some errant passes and playing too fast at times. But he did get to the line 15 times thanks to his combination of elite quickness and good ball handling ability. He has a tight crossover that is able to break down defenses. Jackson needs to learn to slow his game down and become more of a constant nuisance on defense, but he has himself in discussions as a second rounder.

For Texas, there has been a lot of positive things to say about them until Javan Felix's performance yesterday. The Longhorns offense has been a mess a season, lacking spacing or any kind of rhythm. Texas has always been at their best with players off all shapes and sizes who can shoot and stretch their defense. It has appeared the Rick Barnes is still trying to run the same sets with this personnel, yet without the shooters. Finally yesterday, Felix took control of the offense through the pick and roll game. He finished with 26 points and 9 assists while only handing the ball over to the defense once. The performance was as impressive as it sounds - he ran the pick and roll with poise and was able to get lots of good looks in the mid-range area. Baylor didn't defend it well, something that might have had to do with Drew being out, but Felix deserves the credit for this one.

Murray State vs SE Missouri State

Ed Daniel - Daniel's endurance was on full display, bringing his energy for 37 minutes in a game that was close post of the way. Daniel is the same kind of player as Ben Wallace or Kenneth Faried - two other small school products who come from the southeast. He's not as good, but he has a good shot at making a NBA team.

At this level, he does a great job at running down the court to establish deep low post position in the paint. He isn't a bully with his size, but does possess great quickness and determination. His post game is basic, relying on a running right handed hook shot and and vanilla arsenal of ball fakes. He hit a foul line jumper in this game. His jumpshot is more of a touch shot though - and he has good touch, but his range doesn't look promising - 10 feet and in. With Isaiah Canaan, his main role on offense is more as a screener and rebounder than a go-to threat.

Defensively, Daniel moves like a small forward and has a tremendous IQ. He brings non-stop energy and is willing to lay his body on the line at all times. He plays great help defense and puts great pride in keeping his man out of the paint (although he can get pushed around at times). Daniel has a chiseled frame that has obviously seen the weight room, much like Faried's in college, but could focus on adding more girth. He has a Faried level body and athleticism. He isn't quite the rebounder, but 11 boards in 29 minutes is not too shabby.

Daniel has improved on his numbers drastically this year and he credits it to the confidence he gained in the all-star camps he attended with Canaan over the summer. He only grabbed 5.5 boards in 24 minutes just last year. This kind of improvement on the glass is something that is unprecedented.

Isaiah Canaan was battling with an injury in this game, but got hot in the second half to bring Murray State into the lead. After a quiet first half, he ended up finishing with 28 points. Canaan doesn't need to be fully healthy to score - all he needs is enough room to get his jump shot off. And thats not a lot of room. Canaan has grown used to the opposition switching on the pick and roll and leaving him to shoot over a big man. The opposition knows Canaan prefers to shoot than drive, so the switching makes sense, but Canaan has adjusted. Next to Deshaun Thomas, he is probably the best shooter in the country when it comes to off-balanced, contested jumpers.

Lehigh vs VCU

For the second time, CJ McCollum let down scouts that flocked to see him play. The first time was when he sat out against North Texas, this time McCollom broke his foot in the first half and is now potentially out the entire regular season.

In the 15 minutes McCollom did play, he was 0-5 from the field. VCU gave him a heavy dose of the havoc defense each time he touched the ball and essentially took him out of the game even before he got hurt. Lehigh still tried to keep getting him the ball, but he was unable to find the open men under the duress of the defense. Once McCollom was forced to the bench, Lehigh actually was able to develop some rhythm since they didn't continue to look for CJ in double teams. They ended up giving VCU a game, eventually losing 59-55. 

12/20/12 Games to Watch and a Recap of Last NIght

I didn't get a chance to recap the North Carolina State/Stanford game yesterday, so I'll do it now since it was a notable game.

Lorenzo Brown was the "good" Lorenzo Brown that we saw last year. He finally got the better of another good guard - Chasson Randle being the victim. Brown did a great job finding the hot hand early on - finding Scott Wood in position to hit 5 3-pters in the first half. After Wood cooled down, Brown looked for his own offense in the second half and finished with 24 points on 15 shots.

Brown did a nice job pushing the ball in transition. His craftiness with the ball allowed him to navigate through traffic at a controlled pace, using his size to help shield the ball, and hit an array of floaters in the lane. He also showed the Eurostep a couple of times. The eurostep, his size, his craftiness, and his touch help make him a very good scorer inside when he is aggressive.

Brown is not the only NC State player who uses to floater to score in bunches - all three of Rodney Purvis's field goals came off floaters and TJ Warren has a very good floor game as well. Purvis was key in the first half before Brown took over and was able to blow by Stanford's slowish guards at ease. I cant think of another team that uses the floater as well as the Wolfpack.

Inside, CJ Leslie really struggled in the first half. He was bullied by Dwight Powell (who scored 15 first half points) and completely out of sync offensively. He airballed a long fadeaway, turned it over on a lazy pass, and took multiple bad shots on out of control drives. In the second half, some of his wild plays started to actually fall for Leslie and he finished with 16 points. Still, its been the same story with Leslie for years. He has awful offensive possessions and then shows the flash of the spectacular. The bottom line is he doesn't have anything reliable on the offensive end. His jumper is inconsistent and his awkward, out of control drives are more style over substance. He is the next Andray Blatche.

Meanwhile, Richard Howell continues to impress. He was always the garbage man for Leslie, but has taken over - for now at least - as the Pack's leading scorer. He is still mainly a garbage man, but he's terrific at his role. Howell is so tough inside finishing through contact, has good footwork, and surprisingly quick moves to the bucket. Unlike Leslie, he has efficient ways to score. On top of that, he's a better rebounder and worlds better defensively. He's certainly the better player at this stage and Leslie's "prospect" label is wearing off. When this season is over, I wouldn't be surprised to see Howell be selected OVER Leslie in the draft.

In last night's action, there was a good chance to see three first round power forwards in Jackie Carmichael, James Michael McAdoo, and Anthony Bennett.

Carmichael was huge in a slight upset at Dayton. He does a great job moving his feet on both sides of the ball and being active. He is a big guy, but moves lightly on his feet and is surprisingly explosive. He draws charges and guards the pick and roll with expertise. Offensively, he does a great job sealing off defenders on his back, has patience in the post, and has great footwork. He has soft touch around the rim and can step out and hit the jumper. With his skillset and BBIQ, Im not sure he is even capable of a bad game. He had 25 points and 14 rebounds last night.

Illinois State actually almost lost the game even though they were up 7 with under two minutes left. In a puzzling move, Illinois State called a timeout while up 4 points with under a minute to play. At the time there was 4 seconds left in the shot clock, but Carmichael had the ball in post and looked capable of getting a good shot. Instead, the timeout was called by the coach and the turned it over try to get the ball inbounds. If you call a timeout in that situation, you better have a great inbound play in mind. That play was a possible 4 point swing and gave Dayton a chance for a game winner in the final seconds. Illinois State got lucky to hold on.

For UNLV and Anthony Bennett, they had a date with Northern Iowa and looked great early. Anthony Bennett dominated on offense early - hitting a couple of threes and looking like a guard in transition. Its amazing how well he plays in transition at his size. He had a play where he grabbed a rebound, brought it up with the defense already set, yet still was able to take it all the way into the lane for a lay-up. He made it look easy.

And while Bennett had some jaw dropping plays, he didn't take advantage of Northern Iowa's size inside. His points came on jumpers and off the dribble. The problem with Bennett is he doesn't handle physical play much. He can out-muscle guys, but when the defense pushes back, he backs down. It happened last game against UTEP and UNI followed the same plan. Bennett was quiet in the second half mainly because he couldn't get good post position.

And defensively, Bennett played terrible post defense and allowed smaller UNI players to rebound over him. His help defense has been a problem this year, but he did have 3 solid blocks in attempt to block the rim.

From the surface, this looked like another Bennett statement game and he really did have some impressive stretches - specifically in the first half. But there are still things that hold him back from being an ideal top 5 selection.

James Michael McAdoo struggled again and the North Carolina Tar Heels ended up losing to Texas. Texas was too physical for UNC and were able to hit shots from outside. Like Jackie Carmichael, McAdoo has good footwork, explodes quickly, and a good feel for the game. Unlike Carmichael, McAdoo plays soft, rushes decisions, and takes low percentage shots. McAdoo was pushed around all game and unable to mix it up inside against the Longhorns bigs. McAdoo has a nice ceiling, but he won't reach it if he doesn't show more toughness and strength. Hes making the game harder on himself.

Games to Watch Tonight

Lehigh at North Texas 8pm

The big game on tonight's schedule is North Texas vs Lehigh which tips at 8pm. By last count I saw, 54 NBA scouts had requested credentials to tonights game - easily the most scouts congregating for a single game (no tournament) this year. All the buzz is about Tony Mitchell and CJ McCollom, two low-major players who have a shot at being selected in this years lottery.

Another reason all the attention will be in Denton tonight is because there aren't many other good games. Duke, Michigan, UCF, Memphis, and Arkansas all play and are worth checking out, but none of the games offer much to see. 

2013 NBA Mock Draft

New 2013 NBA Mock. I didn't factor in any international players into the second round because I haven't studied many of them yet. Plus, I'd like to put in as many collegiate players as possible into the mocks. Team needs are loosely taken into account - moreso near the top of the draft.

Players leaving/staying were made at my own discretion and are purely speculation.

1. Charlotte Bobcats - FR Archie Goodwin, SG, Kentucky

The first overall pick is up for grabs. Honestly - try doing a mock draft right now. Each pick in the top 5 you question yourself if the player is worth that high of a selection. At this point, nobody has earned much. Goodwin has outstanding physical gifts and a knack for scoring and getting to the line. The Bobcats will need a scoring wing to pair with MGK if they ever want to win.

2. Cleveland Cavaliers - FR Nerlens Noel, C, Kentucky

Noel has been a mixed bag this year. If you had Anthony Davis level expectations you would be disappointed. If you were like me and had a lot of questions with his game - you should be seeing some reasons to be optimistic. Noel isn't as smart or as tough as Davis on defense, but is still making tons of plays and rebounding the ball. He has shown good energy and better body language than he did in high school. Offensively, he is raw but sports a positive assist to turnover ratio. He can get to the rim but needs to finish stronger and more under control.

3. Toronto Raptors - FR Anthony Bennett, PF, UNLV

Bennett has been dominant his freshman season thus far and will take on a even bigger role with Moser out. He does a good job setting screens and getting open off of them - showing a nice mid-range and deep jumper. He can also face up and get to the rim where he finishes with authority. He shows a post game but needs to get better at utilizing his big frame. Defensively you can say the same thing - he projects as just a solid defender - but has been a great rebounder.

Toronto is ready to end the Bargnani era and Bennett would spell the end of that. Bennett would fit well in their pick and roll offense and give them a different look from it than what Valanciunas presents. Also, Toronto wouldn't mind having a Canadian on their roster - and would hope to add another one the following year (Wiggins).

4. Washington Wizards - SO Cody Zeller, F/C, Indiana

Zeller has been great this year for #1 Indiana, but that has not lifted the concerns about his length and explosiveness. Zeller can look very average at times in the post when he can't create separation. He struggles to get his own shot and finish near the hoop. Zeller's outstanding skill level, footwork, and energy still make him a nice prospect - just not an elite one.

5. Phoenix Suns - 1992 Rudy Gobert, C, Cholet

Gobert just recently announced that he would like to play in the NBA next year. He's a project but has the size and athleticism to turn out to be a good one.

6. Sacramento Kings - FR Marcus Smart, PG, Oklahoma State

Smart is one of my favorite players in this draft and a leader who can step in and turn the culture of a team around. He possesses natural leadership skills, great athleticism and size, and a advanced understanding of how to change speeds. Smart is a stat stuffer who helps out in all areas of the game and has the ability to be either a great scorer or facilitator at the point guard spot.

7. New Orleans Hornets - FR Shabazz Muhammad, SG, UCLA

Muhammad has struggled early on and needs to turn it up soon. He had an injury and missed practice so its understandable, but as the season goes on that excuse will go away. And the UCLA excuse doesnt work for me - it was much more evident it was the system that was holding back Westbrook and Holiday. For Muhammad its his lack of ball handling skills and ability to create separation. He has to work very hard for each bucket and relies too much on his strength and energy. Defensively, he looks slow and out of shape.

8. Detroit Pistons - SO Otto Porter, SF, Georgetown

Porter has been great for Georgetown and his most impressive revelation for his stock so far has been his shooting ability. His high IQ, defense, passing skills, and toughness were known - but his silky smooth jumper from the mid-range area has now started progressing into a solid 3-pt shot. For a guy with average explosiveness for a lottery wing, his ability to knock down the jumper is crucial for his offensive success.

9. Orlando Magic - SO Michael Carter-Williams, PG, Syracuse

Carter-Williams is the most dynamic player on the board at this point and offers a lot to be excited about. He also offers a lot of questions. Is he mature and a good enough leader to run the point? Can he get into the paint and finish with contact? How will he defend outside of the 2-3 zone? Will he fare better than the last couple of Syracuse players? His height is helping mask a lot of his weaknesses at this point. I still like him though and as Syracuse plays tougher opponents the answers to these questions will become more clear. The one concern I dont have that most actually do is his shooting - he has always had a good touch and its starting to come along the past few games.

10. Houston Rockets - FR Glenn Robinson III, SF, Michigan

The hype on Glenn Robinson III hasn't gotten rolling yet with him stuck next to two ball dominant guards. And perhaps that is best for him - like the rest of the SFs in this draft, GRIII isn't a guy who wants to be "the guy". He's perfectly content playing his role - knocking down jumpers, rebounding, and playing defense. The thing is, he has been incredibly efficient doing it so far as a freshman on one of the best teams in the nation. You can easily carve out a long NBA career doing what he is done so far.

11. Philadelphia 76ers - FR Ben McLemore, SG, Kansas

McLemore has already stepped into the main scoring role for the Jayhawks and he hasn't even started hitting threes yet. McLemore does a great job getting open for shots off screens and sneaks in for backdoor alley-oop plays every now and then to show off his athleticism. He has the size, athleticism, and the shooting ability for the shooting guard position. He is kind of like Bradley Beal last year in the sense that it is tough to go wrong with him. His floor seems like a solid starter and he offer the potential to be one of the better shooting guards in the game. He could end up going in the top 5.

12. Portland Trailblazers - SR CJ McCollum, G, Lehigh

CJ McCollum has lived up to his senior hype in the scoring column - already going off for 30+ points a couple of times. He gets good separation for his jumpshot with his crossover and has silky smooth body control when going up for his shot. McCollum is a great shooter and projects as instant offense off the bench at the next level. He isn't the athlete that Portland's Damian Lillard is and it prevents him from being the playmaker Lillard is. I don't think McCollum will make the full transition to point guard, but will be able to run it off the bench. He is a student of the game and a very hard worker.

13. Dallas Mavericks - FR Alex Poythress, F, Kentucky

With his near 70% field goal shooting and 0.6/3 assist to turnover ratio, its clear just looking at the stats that Poythress is much more of a power forward right now. Poythress is able to defend multiple positions well which is a big part of his appeal and if you can defend the perimeter like he can then there is hope that he can make the transition on offense. Even if he doesn't, Poythress has enough size to be a combo forward in the NBA and the attitude and work ethic that will keep him in the league. He's not a top 5 pick though. I don't see it in his skillset and its definitely not his type of mentality. He went to Kentucky so he didn't have to be "the guy" - Poythress prefers to be a role player.

14. Los Angeles Lakers (to Phoenix) - SO James Michael McAdoo, PF, North Carolina

Everyone is well aware of McAdoo's struggles this year in his new role. The biggest problem with him has been his strength. He is getting pushed around inside, has been unable to get under control, and it is causing a lot of turnovers. He isn't the physical presence North Carolina needs him to be. He still shows good upside on offense thanks to his ability to move without the ball, his quickness, and his soft touch. If he gets stronger, I also think he will be able to start showing a forming post game. Defensively he is smart and is able to draw charges with his quick feet, but doesn't prove to be much of a threat. And he gets pushed around on the glass.

15. Indiana Pacers - SO Trey Burke, PG, Michigan

Trey Burke has followed up his impressive freshman season with another one so far - leading Michigan to an undefeated record. Burke has drawn comparisons to a poor man's Chris Paul and its accurate. He is a balanced point guard, able to both distribute and score. He has a high BBIQ and takes the team and the game on his shoulders. He understands Michigan's complex offense so well. He can overdribble at times and does need to be more of a factor on defense. The only thing holding him back from a top ten selection is his athleticism. And averaging a combined 4.7 rebounds/blocks/and steals brings up some concerns among stat junkies.

16. Milwaukee Bucks - SO Alex Len, C, Maryland

The hype around Alex Len right now reminds me of the Kosta Koufos hype when he first got to Ohio State. Legit seven footer with offensive skills, blocks shots, can hit the jumper and score with his back to the basket. Its an intriguing set of skills for sure, but the most important factor for centers in today's NBA is defense. That is how you get on the court. Len is a good shot blocker (he is more explosive than Koufos), but lacks an understanding and commitment on the defensive end. Besides Kentucky, Maryland hasn't played in any big games so Len is still living off the hype from his first game. But come ACC play he will have to earn the top 5 billing analysts are placing on him.

17. Boston Celtics - SO Tony Mitchell, F, North Texas

I just wrote about Mitchell and this part of the draft would be a good spot for him. His production hasn't been the best up to this point. He might be the best athlete in the draft, but seems to have false beliefs that he is a small forward. If he commits to power forward, he can be very good. Its a high risk/high reward situation in the lottery. It this spot, it would be all reward.

18. Minnesota Timberwolves (to Phoenix) - SR Mason Plumlee, F/C, Duke

Wrote this recently - "There is part of me that wants to rank Plumlee lower, but its tough with the season he is having. He very well could be National Player of the Year this season and his stock should start soaring. It won't surprise me if he ends up in the lottery. I don't want to split hairs though with his ranking - my main point is if I were a GM, I'd spend my top 20 pick somewhere else. I'd much rather take Jeff Withey outside the top 20 then spend a top 20 pick on Mason. Nothing against him, he's having a great season, I just question how it all translates to the next level. His offense is a lot of face up looks, but he can't shoot. He relies on the drive, but its going to be hard to keep NBA defenses honest if he can't consistent hit the 15 footer. And his post game is still based on his athleticism. And he doesn't even establish deep post position enough to take advantage of it."

19. Utah Jazz - JR Ray McCallum, PG, Detroit

McCallum is an underrated prospect. CJ McCollum gets all the hype because of his scoring, but all Ray McCallum has done this season is prove he can suddenly switch from a point guard to shot hunter to provide his team with much needed scoring. He isn't as good at it as McCollum but McCallum also isn't a combo guard. He is a pure point who has proven he knows how to lead a team and create shots for his teammates. McCallum looks like a sure bet to be at least a top backup point guard, but could easily turn into a solid starter.

20. Denver Nuggets - SR Jeff Withey, C, Kansas

Withey is leading a suffocating Kansas defense. I wrote this recently -

"The second best senior? It sounds weird, but Withey has an elite ability to affect games on the defensive end that should make him a good player in the pros. He moves so fluidly for a 7 footer and gets off the court quickly. He has been Kansas's best player so far, even becoming more of a threat on offense. Kansas can't get much penetration so Withey has been a key factor on offense - being relied upon as a part of their inside/out game. He has shown quick moves in the post and has been more aggressive this season. Withey isn't the most talented senior, but he might be the surest bet to walk onto a NBA team and contribute right away."

21, Golden State Warriors (to Utah) - SR Jackie Carmichael, PF, Illinois State

Jackie Carmichael has been a huge revelation to me this year. He has a prototypical body for a four man and is more explosive than he looks. He's actually extremely nimble on his feet and does a great job defending pick and rolls on the perimeter. He plays the game offensively like a 10 year NBA vet - setting good screens, showing great patience in the post, hitting from mid-range, and cleaning the offensive boards. He is a good passer and has a post game. At this point, it wouldn't be crazy to call him the most NBA ready power foward in the draft.

22. Brooklyn Nets - JR Andre Roberson, PF, Colorado

Roberson has looked bad this year trying to show his perimeter skills and that is taking away all the attention from what he can do. He is still posting great rebounding numbers and generating a ton of blocks and steals. He isn't a small foward, but would that have even been the best fit for him? He can be a poor man's Marion off the bench.

23. Chicago Bulls - JR Gorgui Dieng, C, Louisville

Dieng has been out the last month with a broken wrist and he has been missed - not only for his great defense, but for his offense. Dieng is a big help facilitating the offense from the post and had flipped his turnover ratio upside down from previous years. He should be back in the next couple of weeks.

24. Atlanta Hawks - SO BJ Young, SG, Arkansas

Young has proven to be one of the better one on one players in college basketball when it comes to getting to the rim. He has excellent body control and footwork on his way to the rim and is able to manipulate his way through defenders and hang in the air to finish with contact. While his ability to get to the basket and finish is elite, his shooting has taken a step back this year and he isn't getting a chance to show his ability to run the point guard in Arkansas' 3 guard offense.

25. Memphis Grizzlies (to Minnesota) - JR Reggie Bullock, G/F, North Carolina

With North Carolina struggling, it is easy to sour on their top prospects and place the blame on them. And you can knock Bullock for his aggressiveness - only getting to the line 1.4 times a game. But that isnt his game and isnt what he will be expected to do in the NBA. He cant carry UNC, but in terms of doing the little things, he continues to show elite qualities of a role player. His 3-pt shot is hitting at an all time high, as he's making 43% from behind the arc, and it looks great coming out of his hand. His assists and steals are also up. He could be an immediate contributor to a playoff team.

26. Miami Heat (to Cleveland) - SO LeBryan Nash, SF, Oklahoma State

LeBryan Nash is an interesting player. He struggled last year trying to show off his perimeter skills and has made it a point this year to play more inside and get to the free throw line. He's getting to the line nearly 2.5 times per game more than his freshman year. Operating inside of 18 feet, he has looked nearly unstoppable and has shown a variety of different ways to hurt the opposition. He has also shown solid court vision but his A/TO is hurt by his propensity to force things and take bad shots. Defensively, Nash has a reputation as a stopper but struggles to keep quicker perimeter players in front of him. He might be stuck in between positions like an Al Thornton type but if he blossoms, he could be the next Caron Butler.

27. Los Angeles Clippers - JR Victor Oladipo, G/F, Indiana

Oladipo has been arguably Indiana's best player this season while turning himself into some kind of folk hero. His defense is something that can't be captured in a scouting report - nor can his energy. He has Tony Allen-type defense skills. And his defense has turned into quick offense for him, enabling him to get out on the break for big thunderous dunks while showcasing his elite athleticism. He is shooting a ridiculous 65% from the field this year - up from just 47% the year before. I predicted a breakout year from Oladipo, but the season he is having is something special.

28. New York Knicks - JR Patric Young, F/C, Florida

After two subpar years, Patric Young has started to show some signs of life this season - upping his rebound totals and finally blocking some shots. Still, he needed a early season benching to jumpstart him and after last night's game, it looks like he could be starting to get too comfortable again. He has a NBA body and moves his feet well defensively, so he should at least be a solid big off the bench in the league. I highly doubt at this point he will ever become anything more.

29. San Antonio Spurs - 1994 Dario Saric, F, Cibona Zagreb

Saric's season is just getting underway.

30. Oklahoma City Thunder - JR Mike Moser, F, UNLV

Mike Moser got off to a shaky start this year before getting hurt. It was an adjustment for him to get used to playing with Anthony Bennett and when he comes back this time, he will also have to adjust to playing with Khem Birch. Bennett has taken over as the star of the Rebels and Birch will play center, so Moser will have a chance to focus on playing the perimeter.

31. Charlotte Bobcats (to Oklahoma City) - JR CJ Leslie, PF, North Carolina State

Leslie continues to be a mixed bag for the Wolfpack, looking like a guy who will never grow to "get it". This is his junior year and at this time, he should be dominating competition with his athleticism alone. Yet that hasn't been the case as NC State has been a disappointment and Leslie is stuck in neutral. He still lacks any reliable way to score on offense and doesn't play smart defense. And he has failed to provide any kind of leadership on a NC State team begging for a leader - he instead plays more like a freshman than Purvis, Lewis, or Warren.

32. Cleveland Cavaliers - SR Elijah Johnson, PG, Kansas

I was so busy trying to point out Elijah Johnson's weaknesses over the summer - saying he won't be able to be "the guy", he isn't aggressive, he doesnt get to the rim - to recognize his strengths and what he can bring to a team. Elijah Johnson is a shot maker and also has a great physical profile on defense. He is excellent off the catch and shoot once he gets his feet get set. I still question his ability to take advantage of his defensive attributes, as he has never shown good awareness. But this season that hasn't been as apparent with him guarding the oppositions point guard more. His main trouble was defending off ball and understanding how to see "ball" and "man" at all times. Johnson really needs to get to the line more though - 1.4 times a game won't cut it. He's perfectly capable.

33. Toronto Raptors - JR Jamaal Franklin, SG, San Diego State

Franklin is a guy who coaches will love one second and hate the next. He tries to do everything on offense even though he is limited by his ball handling abilities. He turns it over a lot and takes a lot of bad shots. But he also works very hard, rebounds like a big man, and can score in bunches. He is a highlight reel finisher and is a streaky outside shooter. Right now, he needs to get his 3-pt% back up because that will need to be a big part of his game in the NBA. Being a 23% 3-pt shooter will have him averaging 20ppg in the D-League real quick.

34. Washington Wizards - SR Michael Snaer, SG, Florida State
35. Phoenix Suns - SR Brandon Paul, G, Illinois
36. Sacramento Kings - SR Rodney Williams, F, Minnesota
37. New Orleans Hornets (to Philadelphia) - JR Phil Pressey, PG, Missouri
38. Detroit Pistons - JR Tim Hardaway Jr, SG, Michigan
39. Orlando Magic (to Cleveland) - SO Jarnell Stokes, PF, Tennessee
40. Houston Rockets - SO Myck Kabongo, PG, Texas
41. Philadelphia 76ers - JR Deshaun Thomas, SF, Ohio State
42. Portland Trailblazers (to Denver) - SR Richard Howell, PF, North Carolina State
43. Dallas Mavericks - SR Nate Wolters, PG, South Dakota State
44. Los Angeles Lakers - SR Erick Green, G, Virginia Tech
45, Indiana Pacers - JR Aaron Craft, PG, Ohio State
46. Milwaukee Bucks - SR James Ennis, SF, Long Beach State
47. Boston Celtics (to Portland) - JR CJ Wilcox, SG, Washington
48. Minnesota Timberwolves (to Portland) - SO Rakeem Christmas, F/C, Syracuse
49. Utah Jazz - JR Russ Smith, G, Louisville
50. Denver Nuggets (to Phoenix) - JR CJ Fair, F, Syracuse
51, Golden State Warriors (to Orlando) - SR Robert Covington, F, Tennessee State
52. Brooklyn Nets (to Minnesota) - JR Sean Kilpatrick, SG, Cincinnati
53. Chicago Bulls - JR Lorenzo Brown, PG, North Carolina State
54. Atlanta Hawks - SO Ryan Harrow, PG, Kentucky
55. Memphis Grizzlies - SR Ryan Kelly, PF, Duke
56. Miami Heat - SR Lawrence Bowers, PF, Missouri
57. Los Angeles Clippers (to Detroit) - SR Jamelle Hagins, F/C, Delaware
58. New York Knicks (to Washington) - SR Kenny Boynton, G, Florida
59. San Antonio Spurs - SR Trevor Mbawke, PF, Minnesota
60. Oklahoma City Thunder (to Minnesota) - SR Solomon Hill, SF, Arizona

Top Undrafted:

Durant Scott
DeWayne Dedmon
Elias Harris
Jack Cooley
Amath M'Baye
Reggie Johnson
Mike Muscala
Gregory Echenique
Brock Motum
Kenny Kadji

Senior Rankings (1-5) - Withey, McCollom, Plumlee, Covington, and Wolters

1. CJ McCollom - McCollom may be the best scorer in the country and has already had 3 30+ point games this season; the most in Division 1. He has the ability to take over games with his scoring and lead his team to victory over just about any team in the country. My worries with him are his position and his reliance on long 2-pters. He has the highest potential amongst the seniors and the best chance of making me look silly if I don't rank him #1.

2. Jeff Withey - The second best senior? It sounds weird, but Withey has an elite ability to affect games on the defensive end that should make him a good player in the pros. He moves so fluidly for a 7 footer and gets off the court quickly. He has been Kansas's best player so far, even becoming more of a threat on offense. Kansas can't get much penetration so Withey has been a key factor on offense - being relied upon as a part of their inside/out game. He has shown quick moves in the post and has been more aggressive this season. Withey isn't the most talented senior, but he might be the surest bet to walk onto a NBA team and contribute right away.

3. Mason Plumlee - There is part of me that wants to rank Plumlee lower, but its tough with the season he is having. He very well could be National Player of the Year this season and his stock should start soaring. It won't surprise me if he ends up in the lottery. I don't want to split hairs though with his ranking - my main point is if I were a GM, I'd spend my top 20 pick somewhere else. I'd much rather take Jeff Withey outside the top 20 then spend a top 20 pick on Mason. Nothing against him, he's having a great season, I just question how it all translates to the next level. His offense is a lot of face up looks, but he can't shoot. He relies on the drive, but its going to be hard to keep NBA defenses honest if he can't consistent hit the 15 footer. And his post game is still based on his athleticism. And he doesn't even establish deep post position enough to take advantage of it.

Defensively, he's not an imposing threat as an anchor in the middle, yet doesn't have great lateral quickness to be a good defender against power forwards. He's kind of a tweener in a weird way. The positive thing about Plumlee this season is his energy and rebounding - both which will translate into the NBA. That will be how he hangs his hat in the league - as a energy player off the bench.

4. Robert Covington - Ive written about him twice and summed up his game well here. I watched him put up a bad stat line against Minnesota this year, but it wasn't his fault. Covington offers a great amount of intrigue for a senior prospect. He has starter upside, but could also fail to find a role.

5. Nate Wolters - I've also covered Wolters' game twice - here and here. His season so far has done nothing but build his legend and improve his stock. Right now, he has the best numbers statistically among all PG prospects when you look at all the important requirements - points, assists, 2-pt%, 3-pt%, FTA, FT%, rebounds, turnovers, and steals. Every other top point guard prospect has a flaw in one of these areas - Wolters does not. Of course there are more to projecting players than statistics, but stats are a part of the equation. And make no doubt, Wolters fares well on the eye test as well. Because of his weak schedule, each game against legit competition is important, and Wolters has a big game December 4th against Minnesota that should be fun.