Nobody wants to find themselves in the situation that James McAdoo is in this year - passing up a spot in the NBA's lottery for a chance to come back and lead UNC - only to see his stock plummet it the process. McAdoo's story is a bit dramatic as he could have been a lottery pick, but there are many other more common cases of guys that stay a year too late and go from a fringe first rounder to undrafted. Instead of looking at guys who most likely will declare this year, I'll look at 6 guys who are firmly sitting on the fence and could go either way. For these 6 players, McAdoo's story could lend be a cautionary tale that they should take into consideration when deciding whether to come back to school. Their stocks are looking good after strong seasons, but another season in college could exposure more of their weaknesses or just cool off the intrigue of their upside.
These guys may not be NBA ready, but they are NBA Draft ready. They can get paid and then spent a season in the D-League working on their games as opposed to a college setting where their practice time would be more limited.
- The big story was obviously McAdoo vs Bennett, two potential lottery picks. Bennett had more rebounds and points than McAdoo, but McAdoo and North Carolina got the win. Bennett finished with 15 points (6-16) and 13 rebounds while McAdoo had 13 points (5-13) and 9 board.
- Neither player scored efficiently and the same thing can be blamed for each player - neither has a post game. For McAdoo it is because he struggles with physical defense, settles for fadeaways even with established position, and rushes a lot of shots. But it all comes down to his lack of strength. He can't maintain his post position which gets him off balanced - resulting in quick shots and turnovers.
For Bennett, it is more about preference. He prefers to be a jump shooter. Nobody is pushing Bennett around when he sets his mind to being tough. But he doesn't fight inside for post position. He is more than happy to give up inside and play outside when someone decides to get physical. Because of this though, Bennett's post game is non-existent. He's been floating outside since his high school days and his post game remains underdeveloped. He lacks any moves with his back to the basket. He lacks a way to get easy baskets using his size.
- Defensively, I was impressed with James Michael McAdoo. He took on the challenge of guarding Bennett and slowed him down - especially early. Bennett struggled with UNC's length inside. On the outside, McAdoo did a great job defending set screen plays that were designed to get Bennett good looks. McAdoo moves his feet very well and is an excellent help defender in space.
Bennett on the other hand, was matched up with the offensively challenged Desmond Hubert whenever possible. Its a good thing too because McAdoo could have been more of a factor in pick and rolls with Bennett on him. Instead, McAdoo saw a lot of Quintrell Thomas - a perfect kryptonite. Thomas is an ultra-physical undersized power forward. He kept McAdoo from getting comfortable much of the night. Most of McAdoo's field goals ended up coming after Bennett or Mike Moser got switched on him. Moser struggled defensively as well and fouled out in 12 minutes because of it.
- McAdoo has obviously not adapted well to being "the guy" on UNC. When he wasn't the focus of the offense last year, he played his role very well. This year, Brice Johnson has taken over that role and has done an excellent job. He is very immature physical, but plays the game without fear inside. His offensive game is much like McAdoo's - he does his best work using his athleticism for putbacks or quick moves and has a nice short turnaround jumper in the post. He has been very efficient as defenses have keyed in on McAdoo. If the tables were turned, you can bet McAdoo's numbers would look a lot better. Its a much tougher game when you are expected to be a post threat.
- Bennett did get his highlight plays in. He had two thunderous dunks and had another full court drive that resulted in him crossing up McAdoo to get to the rim. There is no doubt that he can do things few other guys his size can and Dave Rice allows him to take advantage of it by allowing him to bring the ball up the court of rebounds. UNLV runs a perfect offense for him. Moser took advantage of the same freedoms last year. Getting down to it though, Bennett can't live off transition opportunities and jumpshots in the NBA with his atrocious defense. His defense will never be good, but his post game has room to develop. If not, he'll just be another Brandon Bass.
- In comparing the two lottery prospects, I think James Michael McAdoo has the most to work with. He is taller, is a lot better defender, moves his feet very well, is quicker and more explosive at the rim, and understands the game of basketball better. Bennett is more of the physical specimen which gives him the edge in college. Bennett is also the better jump shooter and more dynamic with the ball. But he is a terrible defender and has little room to grow in that area. He also lacks the same kind of feel McAdoo has - another thing that is tough to learn. McAdoo on the otherhand is being held back mainly by his lack of strength. That is something that can be fixed. Its not like McAdoo has the frame of John Henson or Brice Johnson. The other big advantage Bennett has on McAdoo is the shooting. Again, another thing that can be vastly improved upon. No, McAdoo won't ever be a better shooter than Bennett, but he can turn into a reliable one.
Things change and it is early, but Bennett does have a higher floor than McAdoo. McAdoo could be a flat out bust. Bennett at least has a floor of a Brandon Bass type. But his ceiling seems overrated. McAdoo's may be too, but I want to give him the rest of ACC play to see how he adjusts. Its too soon to get down on McAdoo just as it was too soon to anoint him a top 5 pick last season.
The new look Tar Heels are two games into their season, winning their second game today over Florida Atlantic 80-56. There never was any question about this game as North Carolina outran them and capitalized on Florida Atlantic's poor shot selection.
Marcus Paige bounced back from a zero assists debut to dish out 6 dimes and did a nice job of looking down the court and pushing the ball ahead in transition - much like the old #5 did last year. The slender lefty has more flare, length, and quickness to his game than Marshall did and could join him in the NBA when he decides its time to leave. Right now, Paige is only listed at 159 pounds and that is holding part of his game back. He hasn't been able to handle contact well in the halfcourt so far, and went 1-8 from the floor today. His slightly high dribble combined with his frame is enough to make it tough for Paige to get drive through traffic and finish at the rim. He has a higher ceiling than Kendall Marshall but will need to put on weight in order to handle to ACC and eventually, the NBA.
Paige had two outlets at all times on the breaks in Reggie Bullock and Dexter Strickland. Both players love getting out and finishing in transition and help make UNC arguably the best transition team in the nation. Bullock had a very efficient 16 points, hardly dribbling the ball, scoring all his points spotting up from three or getting out in transition. He's proven to be a great role player but after studying Bullock over the summer, he never has shown the ability to create much offense. That is why I am concerned about UNC's halfcourt offense this year more than ever as McAdoo is the only sure option there. Strickland had a stretch in the 2nd half that made it appear he wanted to audition for the job, but really all he did was take 4 straight ill-advised shots. Strickland is much like Bullock, playing great defense and leaking out on transition. He isn't as much of a shooter and can handle the ball more, but he is certainly not a #2 scoring threat. He was definitely Carolina's best defender today and that should be the same for most of this season.
Who could step up for North Carolina? Well after Desmond Hubert got the start, Joel James took over and ended up logging more minutes. He had 11 points and 8 rebounds in 18 minutes. James got in shape over the summer and is an absolute beast inside. He is still slow making moves, but his motor, size, and touch are a combination that could make him an All-ACC performer as soon as next year. He's not the answer as a #2 scorer though this year.
Tokoto and Johnson are both nice freshman as well. Both are great athletes and Johnson was really aggressive today. Neither are to be counted on this season, though.
PJ Hairston is the guy North Carolina will need. He was a chucker last season while not being able to make a shot, but things could be different this year. His 26% 3-pt shooting shouldn't be repeated as his jumper looks great. He took 8 shots in 17 minutes today while only making 2 so he has the shooting down. He can attack the hoop and get off both 3-pt and mid-range shots off the dribble. He needs to be more selective but Hairston has the best chance of being the guy to step up.
Quick thoughts on McAdoo:
McAdoo has started off the year well, measuring up to expectations. The best part of his game is the way he moves his feet - both offensively and defensively. He always finds himself in position to take charges on the defensive end. Offensively, he does a wonderful job sliding around the paint trying to get open. He gets an unusual amount of short open jumpers because of this. He is also able to post up and keep the defender on his back not because of his strength, but because of his active feet. He moves his feet in order to keep the defender on his back and also to set up angles at the hoop. McAdoo may be settling for too many jumpers early on and I'd like to see more post touches, but so far he looks very much like a lottery pick. He's handling the role of #1 option on offense well.
Being the fifth starter of a North Carolina lineup (after Strickland went down) that saw the other 4 members all get drafted in the first round, Bullock was a lot of the times the forgotten man, but he didn't seem to mind. He proved to be a good role player, complimenting star Harrison Barnes on the wing by providing defense and outside shooting. He beat out incoming McDonald's All-American PJ Hairston for the minutes not because he was a better scorer - he is not - but because of everything else he does.
Bullock's offense last year was very simple. 5 of his 7.6 shot attempts per game were 3-pt shots. It is safe to say that at least one other shot attempt a game came in transition thanks to Kendall Marshall and the Tar Heels uptempo offense. So that leaves Bullock with maybe one shot he created per game. And thats generous because Marshall could have created some of those looks too. Plus he averaged nearly 2 offensive rebounds per game so there was a chance for putbacks.
Oh look, its Reggie Bullock shooting a 3
This doesn't mean Bullock was completely worthless on offense. Not at all. Bullock isn't a good creator or ball handler, but he didn't have to be on this team so he focused on the little things. He would set screens, crash the boards, occupy the foul line area, and keep the floor spread with the threat of his jumper. Bullock struggles to string together multiple dribbles in line to the rim, but he had a tendency to take two dribbles and stop. This doesn't sound good, but he found a surprising amount of cutters doing this, showing off a nice passing ability. It seemed every time he did this he would set up a teammate with a nice feed. Now his assist numbers weren't impressive (only 2 per 40 minutes pace adjusted), but that isn't because he isn't a smart and good passer. Thats due to the fact that he struggles to create and he also rarely passes while dribbling. He always has to gather himself, partly because he can dribble with his head down. When he is looking up though, he does a great job of seeing the floor.
Bullock will never be a great dribbler, its too much to ask at this point, but he can become good enough to take advantage of his court vision and basketball IQ. Also, he showed a solid mid-range game and floater in high school and I would expect him to start showing these skills more next year. Last year he showed a very small sample of these moves, and also a pull up jumper that looked as efficient as his spot up jumper. He can go a few dribbles to his right and pull up without a problem, but don't expect him to go into isolation mode to create room for a shot.
This stuff isn't necessarily a death sentence in the NBA. Not everyone needs to be a shot creator. Bullock does create many second chance opportunities just by rebounding the ball and hustling for loose balls. He has already shown he knows how to be a secondary type player and he showed the willingness to do it. Bullock has good intangibles and solid character. He's a guy who likes to laugh and joke around, although he may innocently slip up from time to time like when he said Coach K looks like a rat.
Reggie fit in quite well with his teammates and enjoyed every minute of it
His shooting is something Bullock will have to continue to show consistency with. His freshman year, he shot under 30% from 3 and 13-23 from the line. However, nobody was surprised when Bullock shot 38% from 3 last year with more attempts, and upped his free throw shooting to 72%. Bullock is more of the 38% shooter for sure and he has deep range and nice form on his shot as well. His free throws are bad, but he hardly gets to the line to begin with. That could be why he has never been a good foul shooter as last year he went to the line 0.8 times per game! That was by far the worst mark among rotational wings in college basketball (20+ minutes a game). Even Deividas Dulkys more than doubled that rate.
His lack of ball handling skills really pigeon hole him into the small forward spot - he is not a shooting guard by any stretch of the imagination. On defense though, Bullock has been asked to guard virtually every position except center and has done so successfully. He has a nice frame and a 6'8.5'' wingspan, but his tenacity and effort is what really sets him apart. He pressures the ball and takes away 3-pt chances and has good, but not elite lateral quickness. Bullock isn't going to be a lockdown defender, but he is a very good defender in college basketball and that should carry over to the next level. He also rebounds the ball well and plays good help defense.
Overall, Bullock is what he is. I think a lot of people are expecting that Bullock will take a big leap this year and become more of a scorer. His points are obviously going to go up, but it will be PJ Hairston who becomes the go-to scorer on the wing - not Bullock. Hairston is a lot more of a natural shot creator while Bullock can help out, while still concentrating on doing the little things. If you have high expectations for Bullock this year, you may end up disappointed, resulting in you downing him as a prospect. But if you accept what he is and focus on what he does well, you will see why he can be a nice role player in the NBA. Bullock doesn't have star potential and may not even be a sure fire first rounder, but as a basketball player, he is someone that you wouldn't mind having in your rotation.
Day two of the Elite 8 brought us two very different games. The first game was a David vs Goliath matchup in which David actually won. In terms of NBA prospects, there were a few, but the game didn't hold too much extra weight in terms of stock. When June comes around, few will point to performances in that game as gospel. It was merely just another game in a lengthy evaluation process.
The Morris twins didn't show well, especially Markieff but everyone is prone to a bad night. The game served as another example as to why I am worried about the twins, although nothing was a new revelation. The Morris twins have shown time and time again that they will struggle converting buckets inside. Both lack the length and explosiveness to consistently get it done down low. They can hit fadeaway jumpers, but cleaning up the glass can become a tough task for them.
The second game of the night, North Carolina versus Kentucky, had a different feel to it. These teams were both equal in talent and stocked with NBA talent. This was a great chance to evaluate how certain NBA prospects fare against one another.
One matchup I was most interested in seeing was Terrence Jones and John Henson. Unfortunately for both players, Henson got in early foul trouble and Jones failed to capitalize on it. If you have been reading my blog, you know I have had concerns about Jones, and this game lead to others voicing their concerns too.
Jonathan Givony tweeted, "Terrence Jones has become, at best, Kentucky's 6th most important player. Breaking down his film from last 2 months probably won't be pretty. Not sure how much longer Terrence Jones can live off Maui performance. Wasn't considered one & done guy coming in. May need to rethink this."
It always feels good when respected scouts share come around to sharing the view you have expressed an entire year.
With Henson, I wouldn't be too worried about him fouling out. It was the first time in his career he has ever been disqualified. He can be too aggressive defensively, but he has been a huge deterrence in the paint. He has gotten his hand on more in bound passes recently than anyone else I can remember. His wingspan is huge and its not something he will leave behind in college. In the short time they shared the court together, Jones didnt overpower Henson. Henson is stronger than he looks. Ive been impressed with the positioning he has been able to get time and time again. Overall, I think Henson has helped his stock over the tournament if anything. You can comment on his boneheaded plays against Washington, but he is absolutely not a low IQ player. Coming to the conclusion will give you the wrong view on Henson. In fact, one of the most impressive things about Henson is his movement without the basketball on the offensive end. He always gets in great position for a ball handler to deliver him a pass and makes precise cuts to the hoop. Also, you don't grab over ten rebounds a game with a skinny frame if you don't know how to use your body and read where a ball is going.
Harrison Barnes was more aggressive than Ive ever seen him today. He could get his shot whenever he wanted and did just that. Early on, he settled for too many jumpers that he could get at anytime, but the clutch Barnes returned at the end of the game. It was a complete 360 from his performance in December against Kentucky where he only took ten shots. In the elite 8 game, he hoisted 19 shots while still being defended well by Liggins and company.
Speaking of Liggins, Kentucky native and Scout recruiting analyst tweeted that Liggins is the heart and soul of UK's team and added that his defense and toughness is off the charts. Ive always liked Liggins more than Darius Miller and think he could be a great pickup for any NBA team when he declares.
The last guy I will touch on is Tyler Zeller. I'm still having trouble figuring out his NBA future. I predicted in late November that I felt his stock will see a rise into the first round and it seems like it has. Agile, skilled, seven footers who get up and down the court are hard to find. Especially productive ones. Chad Ford says scouts compare him to a poor man's Pau Gasol. I have no problem with that comparison, but that doesn't help me at all. Now I have to figure out what the hell a poor man's Gasol equates too. Just how poor of a Gasol is he? With Gasol's hair and beard, he already looks poor himself.
The first time I saw Kendall Marshall was his junior year in high school. The setting - Wise High School in front of his future coach Roy Williams. He was pitted against fellow North Carolina commit, Reggie Bullock in what was a can't miss game. The game got off to a bad start for Marshall's O'Connell squad, and with 5:31 left in the third quarter they were staring at a 45-29 deficit. Sitting a row behind O'Connell's bench, I was infatuated with watching how this young kid handled himself. There was something about him that was hard to explain, but he remained calm in every huddle, while the fire was still apparent in his eyes. He was a quiet leader - a guy who was well liked and didnt need to raise his voice for respect.
Coming out of a timeout midway through the third quarter, after receiving instructions from Joe Wootten (son of Morgan Wootten), Marshall and his troops began to make a run. Marshall was in complete control of the game, much in the way you think of him now at North Carolina, making all the right passes and decisions.
When people question whether Marshall is a product of the players around him, I think back to his high school days. His team had some talent, but they weren't in the same league as Oak Hill, DeMatha, Montrose, etc. Their 6-5 post players received some low major interest, but that was it. Still, Marshall led that team to some great wins, including the game against Bullock, which they eventually won 71-64. Marshall's stat line?
11 points, 7 assists, and 5 rebounds.
He battled the taller and more athletic Bullock the whole game, holding him to 17 point on a host of shots. After the game, Wootten called Marshall's defense on Bullock "tremendous" and mentioned that he contested every shot.
You see, Marshall does a lot more offensively then what meets the eye. Assists and turnovers aren't a complete measure on point guard play. There are other ways to set up your teammates than using quickness to get into the lane and draw defenders. Marshall is living proof of that. If you didnt know that before, watching him play will force you to believe that basketball is more than skills and athleticism. That is the only way to explain Marshall's impact on the game. How exactly does he do it?
Well, being a good passing point guard is more than simply being a good passer and seeing the court.
In George Dohrmann's must-read book "Play Their Hearts Out", Demetrius Walker's high school coach scolded the star after his teammate dropped one of his passes. He yanked him from the game and asked him why he threw the pass. The pass was on target and could have been caught, but the coach made a point that Walker knew his unskilled teammate was incapable of making that kind of play. Part of being a point guard is knowing your teammates limitations and putting them in position to succeed. You can make flashy passes to make yourself look good, but it doesn't mean they are good passes. Kendall Marshall gets that.
Knowing your teammates is one thing, knowing the game of basketball is another. Without great physical tools, Marshall has to find other ways to get his teammates open looks. While being guarded, Marshall will often drive at a different defender guarding a teammate, forcing that defender to hedge over to Marshall. That creates all the opening Marshall needs to deliver a pass. In basketball, the skip pass seems to be a dying term. Used correctly like Marshall does, it can keep the defense off-balance and in constant rotation. Those are two things right there that he does as good as any other college player. Hockey assists. Quick and correct decisions. Feeding the ball into the post. If you want to define the term true point, use a guy like Marshall who knows how to play the game, not someone who uses his athleticism to get all his assists and dribbles the air out of the ball.
His offensive game is going to draw comparisons with Jason Kidd and Ricky Rubio. Kidd was an absolute stat sheet stuffer in high school. He was on a different level than Marshall athletically. Still, it is easy to see who Marshall patterns his game after.
As for Rubio, I suspect this example to be used a lot by people justifying taking him in the lottery. The both aren't athletically gifted, but are almost prodigious with their understanding of the game of basketball. Neither can shoot very well. Where Rubio has the advantage is defensively. Marshall has short arms, while Rubio sports a nice wingspan. Rubio has quick hands and generates a lot of steals. He also is faster and gets to the basketball better. If Marshall waits to declare until after Rubio has played in the NBA, I can see his success being a factor. If Rubio ends up being great, there is hope for Kendall.
Of course, Marshall has plenty of limitations which could explain how he understands the nuances of the game better than anyone else - he has no choice. He's not a good shooter. He can't jump. He has short arms. His dribble is too high at times which hurts him driving through traffic. He lacks strength. Athletically, he is like a Marcus Williams (UCONN) or Greivis Vasquez. Defense will be a struggle no matter how much effort he puts in.
These are all the things he can't do. This is what scouts will point at whenever he decides to entering the draft. It has the making of the always classic, "its not what you can't do, its what you CAN do", theorem. The debate on Marshall is going to be tough and may go on for three more years. He is such a tough prospect to judge whether or not he will be successful, it seems many draft pundits want to put it on the back burner and hope they get a few more years to evaluate.
