Rookie Report

Thanks to a daily dosage of NBA league pass every night, I've had no trouble keeping tabs with last years draft class. After all, scouting players doesnt end when the graduate to the league. That is only the beginning. It is important to stay current with the NBA game and see how each player translates. After watching, you can reflect on why a certain player exceeded or failed to live up to your expectations for them in the league.

Kyrie Irving hasn't been a game changer, but thats not what should have been expected from him off the bat. He's been a decent court general and shot the ball very well - well enough to be leading all rookies in scoring. He won't be a bust, but it isn't a guarantee that he will be the top player from this class.

For the Cavs though, they might have elected to go with the best combination of selections since they also nabbed Tristan Thompson at #4. Thompson has played with a great deal of energy, cleaning up the glass and blocking shots. His post game is more advanced than many pundits gave him credit for, helping him scored over 8 ppg in just under 20 minutes.  He does need to work on his free throw shooting, especially since his best skill may be at getting to the line. If he does that, he will have a chance to be an all-star. Right now, he is shooting under 50% from the line.

I spent a lot of time covering point guards last year and so far, many of them have proven to be worth the time. Kemba Walker hasn't been given a chance to settle into a role yet, but he has been clutch at times. The question to remains with him about whether he can run a team and also be efficient. So far he hasn't shown either of them. The TJ Ford comparison might turn out to be appropriate.

I was a little down on Norris Cole heading into the season because I wasn't sure about his halfcourt offense, but he has been a steal thus far. It helped that he was drafted by the Heat, getting plenty of chances to run out on the break. Still, Cole has proven to be worthy of some of Mario Chalmers minutes already and looks primed to take over the starter role in time.

Jimmer Fredette is another guy I had a lot of questions about and they all still stand. He has looked like an electric scorer at times, but is shooting a poor percentage at this juncture. His shooting is not what is worrisome, though. We know that will come around. What is a problem is his defense. Nothing I have seen so far this year makes me think he can play good enough defense at this level to be effective. He cant stay in front of anyone and to top it off, he has even done a terrible job of getting back and preventing fast break points. Lucky for him, he's on the Kings and the only guy behind him to take minutes is another rookie, Mr. Irrelevent, Isaiah Thomas.

The decision to cut Pooh Jeter and just role with Thomas was a questionable choice. Thomas can't defend and is a inefficient scorer. Hes struggled when pressed and isn't big enough to get his shot of consistently. He's the sparkplug type, a dime a dozen, and I dont believe he is worthy of a NBA roster spot.

Josh Selby is a project, but he looks like an NBA player when he is on the court. He's got to either become a point guard or learn to be more efficient, preferably both, but the tools are all there. He has flashed the athleticism on a few impressive plays this season. He can shoot the ball and kill you in transition. I think his potential should have placed him in the first round.

I viewed Marshon Brooks as a similar case as Selby, despite him having three more years of college experience. Brooks could definitely score the ball, but there were questions about him being a winning player in college. After being drafted by the Nets, he hasn't been able to show he can fit into a contending team, but he has definitely shown he can score the ball as good as, if not, better than advertised. He's scoring 14ppg on 46% shooting on a team that needs someone to take the shots. So far, you can't complain about how he has been playing. He might be the best scorer in this draft class at the moment and his upside is looking towards Jamal Crawford.

I haven't seen too much of Brandon Knight yet as I can't fathom sitting through an entire Piston game. From what I've observed, he has been streaky, showing flashes of potential while also making rookie mistakes. Hopefully the rest of the guards ineptitude doesn't affect his development because he still has a great upside.

As a closet Wizards fan, I have also gotten a chance to look at Shelvin Mack. They were comfortable enough to go into the season with him as the backup point. So far, he has looked a little slow and below average athletically. I don't see anything that he brings to the table in the NBA, maybe he turns into a steady ball handler and can backup the point for years to come like Chris Duhon. Theres nothing to get excited about with him, though.

Andrew Goudelock hasn't gotten much burn. He is pretty much what we thought he was. His great shooting got him drafted and can be used in certain situations. The triangle would have been a better fit for him since you'd rather have him spotting up in the corner than running your offense.

Charles Jenkins has been solid in limited minutes for the Warriors. He is shooting a red hot percentage from the long two range, picking up where he left off at Hofstra with a stellar mid-range game. He has been used as a combo guard, sometimes bringing the ball up, but having to defer to Curry and Ellis a lot. It is critical that he gets used to playing off ball. Its something I picked up on that he needs to work on. He's a smart player and hopefully Mark Jackson turns this team in the right direction so they run a more structured offense - something that would benefit Jenkins.

Jenkins teammate, Klay Thompson, has not hesitated to adopt the Warriors mindset of shooting first, thinking later. He started the season off badly, but his jumper is starting to fall. His shot and quick release are picture perfect, making him a threat to go off for 20 point on any given night. He still needs strength in order to finish inside, evident by the fact that his FG% is lower than his 3-pt %. The biggest flaw for Thompson so far is that he's been completely loss on the defensive end. Especially on help defense, he just seems a step behind everyone else. He seemed like a smart player in college, I think he is just a little slow adjusting to the speed of the NBA game.

I dogged Markieff Morris a lot during his college days, but he has surprised me with his adjustment to the pros. His short wingspan hasn't proved to be a problem rebounding the ball and he's been automatic with his jumpshot - all the way out to the 3-pt line. He has shown good strength and athleticism. Definitely looks on his way to be a solid NBA role player, possibly even a quality starter on a good team down the road.

The #2 overall pick, Derrick Williams, has been solid playing about 20 minutes a game for the Wolves. Adelman hasn't been afraid to play him in crunch time and he seems to be developing chemistry on the second unit with Ricky Rubio. As long as Williams is running in transition, which he has no problem doing, he should get a couple of easy buckets a game. The rest of his game is coming along, he's shown nice shot selection so far. He can do a lot of the things Michael Beasley does, just at a much more efficient rate. Dont expect him to take over Beasley's starting spot, though.

Chris Singleton has lived up to the hype of ACC defensive player of the year, displaying great versatility on the defensive end. He's exactly the type of player the Wizards need more of. In the opening game of the season, he was trusted to cover Deron Williams in the 4th quarter. He can guard positions 1-4. His offensive game is based off open jumper and running in transition and he's been doing so effectively. His 3-pt shot has translated to the NBA distance.

I was a big Bismack Biyombo fan heading into the draft, but even I had my doubts in the back of my mind. Seeing him on a actual NBA court for the first time passed the first test of actually making it overseas. Seeing him in action for 5 minutes passed the second test of proving to be more of a threat than Saer Sene. In all honesty, I think he's adjusted fine so far. His athleticism has definitely translated and he is playing with a good amount of energy. Defensively he is already solid, he just needs to work on not fouling. When he gets the ball offensively, its a little shaky, but he somehow manages to due positive things even though its ugly. Right now he's shooting 38% from the line which obviously needs to go up. All in all, Ive liked what Ive seen from him so far. And unlike some African players, he didn't make it obvious he couldn't play at this level from the get-go.

I'll try to get to Jon Leuer, Enes Kanter, Alec Burks, Chandler Parsons, Marcus Morris, Kawhi Leonard, Cory Joseph, Nikola Vucevic, Josh Harrelson, Iman Shumpert, and Trey Thompkins in the next few days.

Taking a Look at This Years Point Guards

The NBA has been invaded with great young point guard talent over the past few years, but that doesn't mean it has to slow down anytime soon. This draft will produce at least three more lottery point guards, with a few others having outside shots. While this may be a down draft, solid point guards will be found throughout the entire draft.

Teams like the Wizards, Bulls, Thunder, Celtics, Warriors, Bucks, Grizzlies, Nuggets, Pacers and the 76ers all have their point guards of the future. The Hornets and Nets hope their respective point guards are committed to the future. The rest of the league would all take a franchise point guard if they found one. Irving obviously tops the list, but there are a few more guys that could turn into starters in this league. Lots more can fill roles. Some bring scoring, others defense, and there are always stable backups to be found. Even a team that has a great point guard in place can take a look at some of these guys later in the draft. Coaches can never have enough options off the bench.

I've had the pleasure of evaluating these prospects throughout the year and I dedicated a couple hours a night the past two weeks to digest these players one more time. I was able to rank these players and develop a good feel for each of them.

It comes to no surprise that Kyrie Irving tops the list at number one. Its a no contest when it comes down to it. He is above average in everything he does and there is literally nothing that makes you worry about him. His toe is fine. He can shoot. He is athletic. Has all the intangibles. Can score and pass. Sounds simple enough, but trust me, there is no doubt that Irving will be a great pro. Stay tuned for Irving's real scouting report tomorrow. I won't oversimplify his game there.

The next grouping features Brandon Knight and Kemba Walker. I could go back and forth on this, but I'll put Knight at number two. Really no point in wasting energy trying to figure out which one is better, their games are much different.

For Knight (check out my more complete report of him here), he has a lot of good general skills scouts look for in a prospect. He was Gatorade National Player of the Year twice (only other guys to win in junior year are LeBron James and Greg Oden). He produced and won at Kentucky. He is a gym rat. He has great size. Doesn't crumble in big situations. He can shoot and possesses great athleticism. Smart and high character kid.

All that makes him seem like a slam dunk star. A guy with NBA size and speed who starred as a freshman at a national powerhouse. And will only get better because he has, by all accounts, a great work ethic. He seems like a great pick - great upside and little downside that he will fail, right?

Well, there are a few things that hurt him. He can't drive left. He doesn't do a great job of creating for teammates. He thinks score first.

His first step is only average. It can get better, but it is not exactly something that his great work ethic can completely fix. We saw his first step present problem for him this year. He disappeared in too many games when he could not make plays. What happens when he faces off against guys with greater athleticism? I heard Tom Penn say today that the NBA is where the "true athletes" shine. Is Knight truly a great athlete? There are some legitimate concerns that he might become more of a shooter. Not being able to attack the basket and not being the greatest creator, Knight could be destined as more of a combo guard and scorer off the bench. But then as you start to dwell on the negatives, you go back and look at this positives...it is a full circle with this guy. He is hard to rank much lower than top 10, but then again, I also find it hard to see him as a great NBA point guard. Ugh...I could go on. But if you are down on him after that paragraph, take a look at the past Gatorade NPOY winners.

And Kemba Walker? I like him. I was his biggest supporter during his sophomore season. I feel that he can be more of a true point guard than people expect. Last year he had to co-exist with Jerome Dyson and then this year he was forced to virtually play alone. He adapted his game admirably. He changes directions so well, very quick and shifty. He can almost get any mid-range shot he wants when you combine his ball-handling ability with his use of his shot fake. He can flat out score, best all-around scorer in college, but the biggest question I have about him is how efficient he will be getting to the basket. He has all the intangibles and such to run point, but does he have the size to be effective finishing in the lane. That is where the true focus should be on Kemba's game. Watch him last year, he can run a team. He's excellent in transition. He is third in my PG rankings - his upside isn't much more than a solid NBA player, but welcome to the 2011 NBA Draft.

This is where it gets exciting. While teams have to spend a top ten (likely top 5) pick to get Walker or Knight, they could grab some equally intriguing point guards later on in the first round. If I had a team, I would avoid drafting Knight or Walker that high because I don't think they are that much different from the next two players in my rankings.

Coming in at third on the list is Reggie Jackson. Jackson has plenty of upside, showcasing more athletic ability than either Knight or Walker. Plus he has ideal tools to be a lockdown defender. I already did a report on him which you can check out here if you actually want to good synopsis of his game. But in terms of his stock, it is underrated and his value at say #20 is way better than Kemba or Knight's at #3. He has just as high of a ceiling and its not like he is a complete project.

The final guy that I believe can turn into a good starter is Darius Morris. It took me awhile to warm up to him. Maybe it is the weak draft, but now I have no problem with him as a first rounder. I actually would have no problem with him going in the late teens. He offers potential as a good starter and thats more than you can say about most of these prospects.

Morris is an interesting player. He basically exploded onto the scene this year out of nowhere so that alone throws up some red flags. Did he really get that much better in one year? His confidence certainly had to have a big deal in it. It didn't hurt that he was surrounded by shooters that gave him room to do his thing. The shooters spaced the floor for Morris to go inside and do his thing. He could transform from their point guard to their center. Michigan's style was certainly unconventional and Morris has plenty of adjustments to make.

He was not shy about pushing his way to the rim using his great frame. He backed guys down, used spin moves, and bullied his way to the hoop. How does that translate to the NBA? Definitely not perfectly. He isn't going to be able to straight overpower every NBA point guard he encounters. He is going to have to adjust and work on that part of his game. His first step is never going to be great, but he already has some strong dribble moves he can go to. Crafty describes his style. He uses picks very well due to his craftiness. Still, he is unable to keep defenders honest with his shot. Nor can he drive left or deal with ball pressure straight on (uses his body to shield away defenders). You can't survive in the NBA with no left hand, especially when you first step isn't anything special either. Advanced NBA scouts will figure out his game quick during his rookie year. It may take him a few years to get his game completely up to par.

His passing ability is what is what intriguing about him. He has made some incredible passes - no look, one handed, you name it. He definitely has taken some pages out of Rajon Rondo's book. He trailed only Kendall Marshall in assists (per 40 minutes pace adjusted as always!) when it came to big school players and assists. He is a great passing point guard, but he isn't near Irving's level in that category. Morris dominated the ball for Michigan, lots of time making simple kickouts to one of the shooters.

In short, there is a lot to like about his potential. He is one of the few pass first point guards out there and is raved about as a teammate and worker. He has plenty of things to work on, but with his size and solid athleticism, he can turn into a good NBA starter. Think Andre Miller.

Ok, the exciting part is over. Wait, Jimmer Fredette is up next. The exciting part is just beginning!

The Jimmer. He's a BYU legend and he can now set his sights on becoming a decent NBA player. We know he can shoot it. He gets good elevation on his shot and can pull up from anywhere. Whether he is shooting in the playground or in the NBA finals, his shooting will translate. He also has a tight handle and a strong build to help him in the paint. But he isn't quick or a true point guard. He also can't play good defense. He might put more effort into it at the NBA level, but his physical abilities will still hold him back.

Looking at the complete picture, it appears Jimmer will most likely be a solid shooting option off the bench. I could see his career going the same path as JJ Redick's (note: I did not say they have similar styles, Im talking about the ascension of his role. Redick gives Jimmer's defense some hope, though). It is hard to see Jimmer as more than a sixth man at best, while I could easily see him busting. For that reason, I would not take him above any of the point guards listed above him on the list. His skillset is special, though, which is why he leads the best of backup/role playing point guards in these rankings.

Following Jimmer is Malcolm Lee, the sixth best point guard in the draft. He might not even be a point guard, but he managed to sneak into this list just like he has snuck by casual UCLA observers.

One thing is for sure, Malcolm Lee can defend point guards. That will be his NBA calling card. He has excellent size to guard either guard position and puts in great effort in that end. He has great athleticism and length, but also takes pride in his defense. I love the way he fights through screens. He is tougher than his injury history says. Some credit for Ben Howland for Lee's commitment defensively.

Howland may also have to take some blame for the way Lee played offensively. He never stood out on that side of the ball, but turned into a good ball mover. His unselfish play translates well into the NBA. It may even enable him to become a point guard. I think part of the reason Lee lost his point guard job at UCLA was because he was a better fit than Anderson playing off ball. He wasn't horrible and it is a positive sign that he accepted his role as a shooting guard so well. He was a highly touted prospect so things could have gone a lot worse.

Anyways, he does have decent offensive skills. He shot 77% from the free throw line and shows potential from outside the 3-pt arc. All prospects are apparently channeling their inner Ray Allens at workouts, Malcolm Lee included. It is tough to believe these reports, but his stroke does look like it has improved. Thats a good sign because his form definitely needed revision.

In terms of driving, the ability is there. He shows a good drive or two to the hoop each game, but doesn't do it enough. He can drive and dish, but when he decides to be aggressive, he has been able to display great finishing skills. He is fairly explosive with good size and can really hang in the air while protecting the ball. His driving ability is something that could come to fruitition in the NBA after he is released from Howland's clutches.

You can compare him to Collison, Holiday, or Westbrook but its more likely that he turns out closer to another UCLA guard - Aaron Afflalo. A strong defender, good attitude, and a good ball mover is welcomed by any team which is why Lee earns a spot right below Fredette.

Next up: Nolan Smith. Now we are getting into plain, old "solid backup territory". Nothing really special here. I wrote about Smith along with Jimmer in my senior rankings and nothing has changed. He can be a solid role player - hitting shots, backing up both guard positions, and providing a good lockerroom presence. He could be a good 8th man on a contending team. A team like the Bulls, for instance, who I can't see passing on him if they keep their late first rounders.

Nolan Smith had terrific college success, as did Shelvin Mack who is the next player on this list. He can hit shots from outside, run a team, and has the strength to be a factor inside the arc. He can be a backup point guard for a long time - think of a poor man's Chauncey Billups.

Keeping the run of solid, but unspectacular players going is Ben Hansbrough. Hansbrough has gone from one of the best shooters in the country, to a very good point guard as well. Don't forget he won Big East player of the year, not Kemba Walker. Hansbrough is a fierce competitor just like his brother and stepped up in Harangody's place to lead Notre Dame into a great season. He expects greatness from himself and his teammates, just like a Kobe Bryant would. With his kind of toughness and smarts, I find it hard to believe he can't backup some team's starter. Oh yea, one more time, he is a stud shooter too.

This is the point where you start slinging darts. I hit Cory Joseph. Why not? He is only 19 years old and a year removed from the All-American game. I've already sorted through the point guards I like, so might as well take a chance on potential.

Still, I have to use this space to say how Joseph should have stayed in school. He is nowhere near ready for the NBA. He might turn out solid down the road, he even has a better chance to start than the last 3-5 players in the rankings, but that time is not anytime soon. He might be on his fourth team by the time he is contributing. He is going to see a lot of the D-League for his first two years. Since he is so far off and likely a second round pick, some teams may not find it worth it to try to hold onto until he develops. He can turn out good, but like I said, it very well could be with a different team than the one he is drafted by. Have to consider that when looking back at the draft.

These next two players are completely different, so it depends what a team is looking for. Iman Shumpert brings an excellent physical profile to the table. Like Malcolm Lee, he can be a great defender and was held back by a coach. Unlike Lee, his offensive game doesn't translate as well and he doesn't seem as committed to the game of basketball.

He played on a terrible at Georgia Tech, led by a coach who is famous for not developing his talent, so there is more upside with Shumpert than the average junior. But you have to make the player accountable for his decision on the basketball court. Watching tape, he played extremely careless and lazy at times. Playing on a bad team shouldn't be an excuse. He was part of that bad team. His shot selection didn't make it better. Not only did he force things, but he forced a lot of jumpshots. Its mind boggling because Iman is such a terrible shooter, yet you see him pulling up in transition; taking contested jumpers early in the shot clock; taking wacky fadeaway shots; and pulling up from midrange whenever he got a chance. Iman may be an elite athlete, but he rarely got to the basket. He got fouled from forcing things and transition play, not from successfully driving to the hoop. Part of it is from poor handles (he cant create separation) and the other part is from playing reckless. He has so much work to do offensively - not just improving his skillset, but changing his mindset.

On the other hand, we have Drew Goudelock. He is the east coast's version of Jimmer Fredette. The guy can absolutely stroke it from anywhere on the court. He is faster than he looks, if he gets in better shape he can stick on a team. He needs to replace some of that body fat with muscle.

The next few guys I don't see making it. It includes Demetri McCamey, Isaiah Thomas, and Norris Cole.

Cole has the best shot given his work ethic and height. He has improved so much in college, but everything about him still is very average. His frame doesnt hold much weight and his halfcourt offense shows signs of being exposed at the next level. I don't see him doing anything well enough to consistently score. He can shoot, but he isn't on Goudelock's or Jimmer's level. He has a solid midrange game. Solid. He doesnt stand out. Next.

Isaiah Thomas looks the part of a spark plug. You can't run from the fact that he is 5'8'', though. Nate Robinson made it, but he has incredible athleticism. JJ Barea is so crafty offensively and a great shooter. Isaiah Thomas is an average shooter and not a top notch athlete. He struggles in the halfcourt. He actually was one of Washington's worst defenders. He was mainly a gunner until Gaddy went down. I just don't see much potential with him.

Demetri McCamey offers more potential than both of them. He just needs to get in shape. He's needed to get in shape for awhile now and still has failed to get it done. Even the Illinois fans recognize McCamey's deficiencies. He can't defend, lacks explosiveness, bad work ethic, average at best athlete, and he failed to lead his team and make his teammates better. This was a make or break year for McCamey and he went the wrong way. Honestly, with his size and shooting, he could find a spot in the league. But that requires hardwork. He hasn't shown it up to this point. He probably should be above Cole and Thomas, but he only has himself to blame.