Examining the Weaknesses of Title Contenders

This has been a year of upsets and parity in college hoops, making it one of the most fun seasons in awhile to follow. There is no media darling who is projected to waltz to the final four and plenty of mid-major teams capable of pulling off early round upsets. All of the top teams have noticeable weaknesses and could be out before the Sweet 16 if they draw the wrong team. With that said, here is a look at what the top teams DON'T want to see awaiting them come Selection Sunday.

Indiana - Indiana is my favorite to win it all as of now, but they still have their flaws. Away from Assembly Hall, the Hoosiers have been suspect to coming out flat and lacking the intimidation factor they have at home. They have lost to a couple of halfcourt teams - Wisconsin, Butler, Minnesota, and nearly falling to Georgetown - and have struggled a lot with physical play inside. Just this week, Trevor Mbakwe proved that if you punch Cody Zeller in the mouth, he will be tentative the rest of the game. And with Christian Watford playing next to him, there is plenty of room to score in the paint. Making Indiana defend for 35 seconds is key. Each of their loses have come when teams chose to slow the pace down and attack the middle of the Hoosier's defense. Another thing that is helpful to beat Indiana is having a good pair of guards and and big man inside that can deter Indiana from getting to the foul line. The Hoosiers lead the nation in free throw attempts.

Duke - Getting Ryan Kelly back certainly helps their problems as he will create space for Plumlee inside on offense while also stabilizing the defense. Kelly takes a lot of pressure off Curry and Plumlee, who were the only two consistent options they had. And with Plumlee's limited offensive game and Curry's size, it wasn't hard to key on them and slow them down. Now the attention focuses to the defensive end, specifically the guards, were they are undersized and lack the swagger of previous teams. In the past, Duke had guys like Jay Williams, Chris Duhon, DeMarcus Nelson, and Nolan Smith leading the defense and slapping the floor while daring an opponent to drive on them. Now they have Curry and Cook - neither very intimidating - and both have been very susceptible to allowing 3-pters over their head. Teams with good shooting guards should provide them problems and if you lack good guards at all - you will also have a chance against them. Maryland beat them partially because Duke guard's were unable to capitalize on the unforced turnovers by the Terps and transition opportunities. Curry and Cook aren't guys who will pressure guards into mistakes.

Gonzaga - One thing that will improve your chances in beating the Bulldogs is having quick guards. Pierre Jackson, Marcus Smart, Brandon Paul, and Chris Anderson have all been able to shake up Gonzaga's defense and get them off balance. Kevin Pangos isn't especially quick laterally and with no shot blockers inside, there isn't much to deter slashers from getting into the lane. But simply getting into the lane with a quick guard won't be enough to beat them. Gonzaga has plenty of offensive firepower and the opposition will need to respond with hot shooting from outside the arc. Thats how Illinois made Gonzaga look more beatable than they have appeared the rest of the year - they took advantage of their slow perimeter defense to get into the lane and then knocked down the open jumpers that came out of it. Opponents have a great assist to turnover ratio against the Zags and there will be plenty of good point guards in the tournament that could give them trouble.

Michigan - All you have to do is stop Trey Burke. Ok, it is not that easy unless your name is Aaron Craft. But there has been framework laid out by other teams that has been successful. Illinois and Indiana have given Burke trouble by switching on every ball screen. Burke struggled to get his shot off over taller defenders, yet still settled for many jumpers. If you get Burke taking long contested twos the entire game, you don't complain. Michigan is a team that is very perimeter oriented and loves to space the floor. Switching on screens and sticking to your man will help negate what Michigan tries to do by spreading out the floor and  drawing extra defenders for kickouts to open shooters. The last thing you want to do is allow a guy like GRIII or Nik Stauskas to get open looks against you and start to get confident. On the other side of the ball, Michigan struggles with ball screens themselves where the can find themselves out of position from being too aggressive hedging. You can get good looks from outside against them and big men like Cody Zeller have killed them rolling off screens. You want big men who are good in pick and roll action and who can also rebound the ball. Michigan State and Wisconsin have taken advantage of Michigan's lack of size inside. Another weakness - Michigan is one of the least experienced teams in the nation.

Miami - The constant theme surrounding Miami this season is how good they are when they are healthy. Up until their past two losses, they had a legitimate excuse for their previous slip-ups. Durand Scott missed the first game of the year while Reggie Johnson didn't play during the tournament in Hawaii. Another thing people forget is Durand Scott played the Indiana State and Arizona games with a messed up ankle. The thing is, is depth is part of the game and Miami doesn't have it. If one of their key players gets in foul trouble, they could be in big trouble. A team that has a knack for getting to the line could force Miami to use some players that rarely get off the bench. In their worse loss of the year to Wake Forest, the Demon Deacons did just that - forcing Julian Gamble out of the game early while Rion Brown finished with 4 fouls. Miami has handled bigger teams just fine as they have some great big MEN (emphasis on men) of their own, but guys like Travis McKie, Brandon Ashley/Grant Jerrett, Ryan Kelly, and Indiana's cast of big men all are big men who spend a lot of time on the perimeter. Those have been the teams Miami has struggled against. You aren't going to be more athletic or tougher in the paint against Miami so there is no point in trying - the teams that have a shot at beating them are the teams that will play away from that and connect on a lot of shots from beyond the arc.

Top 20 Duos In College Basketball

1. Cody Zeller and Victor Oladipo - I'd consider both guys within the top 10 of canidates for the Wooden award. When put together, they form the best duo in college basketball. Oladipo has finally gotten his due, but still has avoided talks of National Player of the Year. He is one of the most efficient offensive players in the country, and of course, we all know about his defense. He defines what college basketball is all about and plays for a top 5 team. He is one of the ten best collegiate players in the nation.

2. Phil Pressey and Laurence Bowers - Without Bowers and Pressey, Missouri would be a team without an identity. With them, they are currently the 7th best team in the country. Pressey may have the best understanding of how to run a team in the country. Bowers has shown great improvement from past years and has given the Tigers that post threat they needed last year.

3. Peyton Siva and Russ Smith - Speaking of identity - for a Pitino team, its all about guard play. Smith and Siva are upperclassmen who know what Pitino wants. They have combined to force 5.3 turnovers per game with aggressive defense and are just as aggressive on offense. They are the head to Louisville's top 5 team and its a head that is nearly impossible to throw off their game.

4. Otto Porter and Greg Whittington - Perhaps a little high? Or maybe not. Porter and Whittington turn an otherwise boring Georgetown system team into a team that can be dynamic. They give them looks that no other team in the country can replicate with their length on defense and their creativeness on offense. Any time when you have two 6-8 guys that can play on the wing defensively and are your best creators on offense, you are going to be a big threat moving forward. The duo makes this Georgetown team more dynamic than past teams.

5. Isaiah Canaan and Ed Daniel - I've got to have the Murray State seniors' in the top 5 of this list because they define what this list is all about. Canaan put Murray State on the map last year and now Ed Daniel has stepped up to be a legitimate compliment to him. Canaan handles the scoring and creating, while Daniel does the little things - including setting excellent screens for the star of the team. While Canaan is their offense, Daniel is their anchor and heart on defense.  When watching the Racers, its those two and then "everyone else".

6. Deshaun Thomas and Aaron Craft - Another duo with a offense/defense pairing, this one is unique as it is the guard who provides the defense. Ohio State is deep in talent, but it is only Thomas and Craft who have the experience and clearly defined roles at this point. Craft is the leader and the defender. Thomas makes up for Craft's lack of scoring ability by being one of the most dangerous offensive threats in college basketball. Quite a complimentary pair.

7. Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway - The second best backcourt in the nation according to these rankings, this attack is spearheaded by one of the favorites to win the Wooden Award. While Russ Smith and Siva get it done with aggressive defense and transition offense, this duo is better at scoring in the halfcourt setting. But the thing about them is how well-rounded they are. They can score inside and out, in the halfcourt or transition, and look for their own shot just as much as they can create for others. The true definition of balance.

8. Marcus Smart and LeBryan Nash - We will see if Oklahoma State's thin team can handle their next two games against Gonzaga and Kansas State, but for now, they remain in the top 25. LeBryan Nash changed the direction of the Cowboys future last year by deciding to take his talents to Stillwater. This year, Smart followed suit, but he ended up changing the culture as well. Smart's leadership and playmaking for this team can't be understated. With him running things on the perimeter, Nash has moved his game more inside and accepted his role down low. Together they give OKST an identity on a team infused with role players.

9. Jamaal Franklin and Chase Tapley - We saw just how good San Diego State was this week at the Diamond Head Classic. They play super hard and bigger than their size. That is a direct result of Jamaal Franklin. Chase Tapley also helps out on the boards from the wing, but he provides SDSU with a much more consistent and stable leader to rely upon. Together, their demeanors work well. We saw Franklin struggled offensively this week and Tapley stepped up and showed he is one of the most unheralded players in the nation. His outside shooting is key with Franklin struggling from deep.

10. Nerlens Noel and Archie Goodwin - In terms of potential, this group is obviously number one. And I think they will end up being a better duo than they are ranked when the season is over. But for now, it is tough to put them any higher.

11. Mason Plumlee and Seth Curry - Duke is the number one team in the country and Plumlee is a contender for player of the year heading into ACC play. Plumlee is the standout, but Duke still embodies more of a team philosphy than most, so they finish outside of the top 10 on the list. Any of their 5 starters can step up on any given night, but Plumlee and Curry are the veteran leaders. Plumlee is a big presence inside while Curry is their most dynamic weapon at guard - for now.

12. Jackie Carmichael and Tyler Brown - This duo has been flying under the radar, just missing getting the big win against Louisville to put them on the map. They have plenty of chances coming up in the Missouri Valley Conference, including a game on January 2nd pitting McDermott vs Carmichael. You can't get a much better post matchup than that. Brown is no slouch either - he plays under control and is a great shooter who is always ready to pull the trigger. This duo may be the best inside-out threat in America.

13. Michael Carter-Williams and James Southerland - Syracuse has a lot of good players but I think MCW and Southerland give them a chance to be "really good" as a team. Carter-Williams is great at breaking down defense and Southerland is always around the perimeter to captilize on open looks. Without James, they lack a pure shooter to take advantage of MCW's abilities. And without MCW, Syracuse lacks much of all in the halfcourt offense.

14. Jeff Withey and Travis Releford - I know, Ben McLemore deserves Releford's spot. And its true. Really this Kansas doesn't belong on this list at all because they are a TEAM. But their identity as a team is tough defense and experience and this tandem defines that the most. McLemore is their most talented player and their key to advancing far in the tournament, but these vets embody Jayhawk hoops. If this was a list of trios, they would be top 3.

15. Alex Len and Dez Wells - Maryland is a team just waiting to crack the top 25 after reeling off 10 straight wins following the opening night loss to Kentucky. But they have yet to be tested since and will have to wait until ACC play to do so. Turgeon set up a weak OOC schedule not knowing that Dez Wells has been eligible and he has proven to be the missing piece. Len's improvement combined with the addition of Wells has been the equivalent of adding to big name FAs in the NBA.

16. CJ McCollum and Gabe Knutson - At 24.9 ppg and 17.4 ppg respectively, this duo is the highest scoring duo in college basketball. They probably should be ranked higher, but lack any notable wins this year. But we saw what they can do last year against Duke. McCollum gets all the credit, yet Knutson is a huge part of their success with his saavy post game and good touch from inside of 15 feet.

17. Shabazz Napier and Ryan Boatright - UConn may not be very relevent this year, but they still possess one of the most offensively potent backcourts in the nation. Both are creative, aggressive combo guards who play off the hot hand. When Napier is on, he can take over. Same for Boatright. Together, they are capable of knocking off quite a few top 25 teams.

18. Shabazz Muhammad and Jordan Adams - This is the highest scoring tandem among the BCS conferences and they both happen to be freshmen. Shabazz missed the first few games because of injury and the NCAA, and came back slowly. People questioned how the two high scoring freshman would fit together and it seems they actually mesh ok. Adams has been able to take pressure of Shabazz and allowed him to focus on scoring off offensive rebounds and hustle plays. Shabazz doesn't need to dominant the ball to score so having Adams works well. Now they just need to find a way to bring it on defense - both have looked slow and out of shape so far, but Shabazz is turning it around.

19. Allen Crabbe and Justin Cobbs - The second highest scoring duo in BCS leagues also hails from California and feautures two veteran guards. Crabbe gets the attention as a possible NBA player and does a great job of moving around off the ball. Cobbs is more of a dominator of the ball, running the pick and roll well and scoring well inside for a sub 6 footer. He lacks the potential Crabbe has, but is one of the best guards nobody talks about.

20. Sean Kilpatrick and Cashmere Wright - These two have been working on establishing themselves in the Big East for years and now are one of the better teams in the conference. They play with a lot of confidence and swagger and get after it on defense. They bring energy and toughness from the guard positions and both are more than capable of scoring as well.

Other Notable Duos from Mid/Low-Major Schools:


Tyler Haws/Brandon Davies
Nate Wolters/Jordan Dykstra
De'Mon Brooks/Jake Cohen
Devon Saddler/Jamelle Hagins
Ray McCallum/Nick Minnerath
Frantz Massenat/Damien Lee
Tyreek Duren/Roman Galloway
Khalif Wyatt/Scootie Randall

Scouting Report: Phil Pressey

Height: 6'0''
Wingspan: 6'3''
Weight: 178lbs
Bday: 2/17/91
Team: Missouri
Class of 2014

A young Pressey rocking a different looking. Truly defining how to "get low"

Coming into his sophomore season at Missouri, Pressey had full control of the point guard position and his game in almost every statistical category. His shooting from all areas of the floor improved, his assists and rebounds went up, he cut down the turnovers and fouls, and nearly doubled his attempts at the free throw line. Most importantly, Pressey was the leader for one of the best teams in a country and a team that was known for unselfishness and excellent chemistry. Pressey had great teammates around him, but he embodied all positive characteristics and did a great job making plays for the other three guards on the court.

Let's ignore Pressey's size at first and examine his college game. Right now, he may be the most talented returning college basketball player and he's still only going to be a junior. It is high praise, but very much earned. Pressey played entire games last year where he was virtually perfect. He defended the entire court, made terrific passes, hit his jumpers, and controlled the tempo. Lots of times it seemed like he could do whatever he wanted out there.

His unselfish play and understanding of the pick and roll offense are two things that bode well for him when projecting his NBA future. Pressey always looks pass first. He can dominate a game without taking a shot and will if you let him. He takes advantage of Mizzou's uptempo offense for assists, but also know how to operate in the halfcourt. In the pick and roll offense, he is deadly. He is so small that he is able to split defenders and he changes speeds perfectly. He can move around into the lane at half speed, just because of the threat of his blow-by potential. He has a good feel for where defenders are playing him and uses his small frame as well as he can when he has a defender on his back after driving off a pick. When he is doing his damage in the lane, he is almost always under control. The only issue with Pressey in the pick and roll is his own ability to finish.

Pressey displaying a NBA "arm bar"

Pressey shot just under 43% from the floor last year, which was actually up from his freshman number of  38.7%. While Pressey has a smooth stroke in the mid-range area, his 2-pt percentage is hurt by his play amongst bigs. Pressey takes a lot of difficult shots inside thanks to his shortcomings in the height department. Instead of using a classic floater, Pressey ends up in tough spots where he is 10 feet away from the hoop and trying to push the ball to the rim with a defender on his inside. He is a crafty guy and a great athlete, but he isn't very explosive. Not in a Nate Robinson kind of way where you are going to see him dunking. He's more along the lines of a DJ Augustin type athlete. He's going to have to bulk up quite a bit so he can deal with contact and develop a more reliable floater. I know the floater should be no problem for a guy with his touch, he just needs to do a better job of positioning himself inside.

In transition, Pressey normally has no problem finishing. When he gets rolling to the basket, he is way too quick for defenders to be able to set their feet and draw a charge or block his shot without fouling. Most of his free throw attempts come off these situations. Pressey's passing is also a big factor here as he is one of the best at delivering good passes to his teammates on the run. Pressey is great in transition and has had plenty of practice in these situations at Missouri.

Shooting wise, I think he is better than the numbers say he was. He has deep range and is able to pull up from anywhere on the court. He can shoot off the dribble and create enough space to shoot the ball. He reminds me a bit of Isaiah Thomas from Washington with the way he can size up his defenders from the top of the key or shoot off the pick and roll. Pressey was shooting 28% from 3-pt range last year on February 15th, but finished the season on a 22-40 hot streak where he displayed complete confidence in his shot.

Another thing to note is Pressey's crossover which is absolutely ridiculous. Its a video game crossover that can take him 5 feet in any direction in a heartbeat. Overall, he does a great job changing directions and he completely dices up defenses. As I said before, Pressey looks unstoppable a lot of times in the college game. In terms of everything he can control, not much more can be asked of him.

Before we touch on his defense, we have to acknowledge his size now. Pressey was measured at 6 ft tall in shoes with just a 6'3'' wingspan at the 2012 Deron Williams Skills Camp. The year before, he was under 6 feet with just a 6'1 wingspan. The numbers can vary a bit. Either way he is really undersized, but a 6'1 wingspan is particularly troublesome. Trey Burke is around the same height as Pressey, but Burke has a better frame and a few extra inches on his wingspan. That is the reason why Burke is considered a better prospect.

Nobody can say Pressey doesn't lay it all on the line. There are countless hustle pics off Pressey on Google Images

In terms of lateral quickness, Pressey has it and he's very agile to boot. Defensively, he really turned it up at the end of the year and played good defense against the likes of Pierre Jackson, Myck Kabongo, and Tyshawn Taylor. He has great closing speed, defends out to halfcourt, and does a good job closing passing lanes and getting steals. Pressey isn't a gambler perse, but can bait the opposition into throwing passes. He does a great job chasing his man around screens and getting interceptions there. He can be bullied and shot over, but Pressey has plenty of heart and pride on defense. Too much to be a complete non-factor.

I doubted Isaiah Thomas last year who had similar measurables last year and he has since proven me wrong. I'm still not sure how good of a player Thomas really is as he put up those numbers of the Kings and I didn't get a chance to watch him much, but he definitely is an NBA player. And I can say with certainty that Pressey as a sophomore was a better played than Thomas was as a senior in college. Pressey has always been a natural point guard while Thomas was much more of a scoring guard until the second half of his senior year.

One thing Thomas did well that Pressey can mimic is the pick and roll game. Thomas had the deep jumper to keep defenses honest as well and similarly used screens to get into the lane. They both show a lot of heart, character, and love for the game. You can never count out players with the kind of work ethics they possess. One area where Thomas has the advantage is his build, where he is a bit stronger. Thomas was a better finisher at the rim because of that and slightly better explosiveness. Still, Thomas never ran the point like Pressey can.

Pressey is the kind of player a general manager or coach can fall in love with. A guy who can make a coach feel that despite his size, he can be their point guard and allow the coach to have complete faith in his decision making. He will have detractors that say he isn't worth even a late first round pick, but there will be a at least a few that will look for him in the first round. I'll admit, I could probably be swooned over by Pressey in interviews and group scrimmages. He's been said to be the best point guard at all the camps he's played in, but still doesn't get as much attention due to his size. With a potential player of the year campaign on the horizon, the topic of his size will continue to be the biggest component that needs to be figured out in his transition to the NBA. He has everything else working for him.

Recruiting Dominoes - Wiggins/Rathan-Mayes vs The Harrison Twins

With the news of Xavier Rathan-Mayes receiving a personal phone call from Coach Calipari and now today the announcement that he will visit Lexington on Friday, Kentucky seems to be inching closer to offering him a scholarship. Rathan-Mayes announced his top 10 school today and all of them had offered him a scholarship - minus Kentucky.

Rathan-Mayes would be a great get for Kentucky, but the real prize here is Wiggins. Kentucky may or may not be interested in Rathan-Mayes if not for Wiggins, but with Wiggins, they could potentially have a great package deal. It has been discussed a lot that they would like to attend college together, continuing their careers together in which they play high school, AAU, and in national competitions together.Wiggins is one of the best recruits to head to college in quite some time and any team would have a problem taking another top 30 player to have a better chance at his services.

It has been believed for quite some time that Wiggins is down to Kentucky and Florida State. Florida State is where his dad played his college basketball at. Last weekend though, Leonard Hamilton went to Philly to watch Wiggins and CIA Bounce play, but apparently he didn't get the memo that Wiggins didnt make the trip. That prompted folks to speculate that Hamilton and Wiggins aren't as close as made out to be and that Calipari has the inside scoop and edge on the #1 recruit in the nation. For the record, Florida State was also on Xavier Rathan-Mayes top 10 list.

Now I am making a few assumptions here, but most are pretty well accepted as fact. Wiggins should end up reclassifying to the class of 2013. The idea of Wiggins remaining in high school for two more years sounds stupid.

Now, Kentucky is also in a heated battle to land the Harrison Twins. The Harrison twins will also be coming in on the class of 2013 and they will be a package for sure. That means, they will be looking for a place where both of them can shine. At Kentucky, one of them would have to be the third option. And if Rathan-Mayes is there, he could ennd up eating into Aaron Harrison's minutes. Aaron is a scorer and I don't think he wants to be on a team with Wiggins, Rathan-Mayes, his brother, and the other 5 star recruits Kentucky will surely have.

Kentucky may ultimately have the choice on what package they would rather have. I don't think they will be able to swing all four the guys. They may have a better chance of getting just Wiggins and the Harrison twins, leaving Rathan-Mayes out in the cold, but that may be risky since Wiggins and Rathan-Mayes could turn around and go to Florida State. Plus, Rathan-Mayes could be the only guy out of the foursome who may stay in college for a few years. He is a guy you can build around.

Lets assume they choose between Wiggins/Rathan-Mayes and the Harrison twins. Who should they take?

Based of their future outlook, point guard may end up being the biggest position of need. They have Harrow now, but he could leave for the draft either this year or next year. They have no point guard coming in for the Class of 2012. In 2013, they have interest in only Andrew Harrison and Cat Barber at the moment. Having seen both multiple times, I would say there is a huge talent gap between the two.

At small forward, lets act on the assumption that Alex Poythress will be a one and done. In fact, lets assume that Nerlens Noel and Archie Goodwin will be one and done as well. All three are projected lottery picks. Noel is irrelevant, but if Goodwin did stay, that could make it more likely the Wiggins/Rathan-Mayes combo headed to Kentucky.

At shooting guard, Kentucky is in the hunt for plenty of the top guys and will end up with one of them. If a bigger talent like James Young or Wayne Seldon commit, that could be the end for the Harrison twins consideration of Kentucky.

Kentucky is in a great spot and really has the ability to play their cards in a lot of different ways. There is also Jabari Parker to consider. As a Maryland fan, I am hoping they have so many options that they end up blocking the Harrison twins plans of heading to Kentucky. With Xavier Rathan-Mayes getting closer to getting a scholarship offer, it looks like Kentucky could be in the process of doing that. If that happens, the Harrison twins to Maryland looks like a good bet.

(Note: I am not saying that the Harrison twins would be unable to start over Rathan-Mayes, but since they are a package deal, both of them need to go to a place where the are the top options. They won't have a problem standing out at Kentucky, but why choose to play beside Andrew Wiggins when the twins talent alone is good enough to take any solid big 6 school deep in the tourney?)

Scouting Report: Nikola Vucevic

Nikola Vucevic
6'10''
260lbs
PF/C
Junior
10/24/1990
Southern California
Bar, Montenegro

Nikola Vucevic is on his way up draft boards after a strong play in-conference to close out his junior season.

Vucevic has great size, might be even bigger than 6-10, and the wingspan that goes along with it. His size has made him a good college rebounder, but I dont see that as a big strength in the NBA. He cant rebound much outside of his area and his hands are a little shaky. Not much of an athlete either, I can see him being a average rebounder and defender but not much more.

His real strength is on offense, where he can work in the post and float out and shoot a jumper. He's a natural in the post, showing great footwork and moves. He makes it look easy. He has good strength and constantly battles for post position down low. Tough and competitive. He sees a lot of double teams and has proven to be a good passer out of them. Gets frustrated at times because of terrible guard play, he works so hard for position and his guards choose to chuck up shots instead. Still shows maturity in making the right decision whenever he has the ball.

I see some Mehmet Okur in his game. Better back to the basket player and less of a shooter. Similar capabilities defending and rebounding. Okur also had strength to defend inside, but lacked the lateral quickness to be more than average.