Showing posts with label Georgetown. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Georgetown. Show all posts

Tuesday, May 28, 2013

The Case for Otto Porter

Otto Porter took the road less traveled to Georgetown, by choosing not to participate in AAU basketball during the summers. Instead, Porter played pickup games with his uncles and dad. He got tougher and learned how to play the game against grown men. Porter didn't spend his summer traveling and competing for a higher spot on recruiting rankings - he spent it honing his skills in his small town in Missouri.

He still got noticed by plenty of colleges and chose to play in the nation's capital for the Hoyas. He went to a school that emphasizes team play, passing, and versatility. It proved to be a perfect fit for his style. He's established a reputation as one of the safest draft picks in his class and an upper end role player. But is that all he can be? Most seem to cut off his potential at just being a good starter in the league - the next Tayshaun Prince has been a popular comparison.

Personally, I think Porter's potential is being overlooked. A lot of it has to do with his prep and college situations. He never played in a open system that has allowed him to showcase his skills. Thats what AAU or less structured offenses like Georgetown are for. Georgetown is famous for its slowed down tempo and team play - and has done a good job of hiding talented players in the past. Georgetown was a good fit for Porter in terms of style, but it did hide his potential.

The system at Georgetown did the same with Greg Monroe and even Roy Hibbert in the past. Coming out, they were viewed as solid pros that lacked aggressiveness and athleticism. It proved to be more of a system thing as both have greatly overachieved their draft stock since entering the NBA. Right now, Otto Porter is dealing with the same questions as they were coming out. With Monroe, scouts were able to come around to him having more potential than shown at Georgetown because they were able to look back into his AAU career. With Hibbert, they didn't have that same luxury because he was extremely raw coming out of high school. And for Porter, he didn't even play AAU.

Like Greg Monroe, Otto Porter also lost in the round of 64 in the NCAA tournament. Did that have any implications on Monroe's career? No, because Georgetown's offense isn't an offense that allows you to take over and dominate a game through scoring. Its why they consistently struggle in the NCAA tournament and it has nothing to do with the players - moreso the system.

If you go back and look at game film, there are very little holes in Porter's game - if any. And most will admit that he has a very good mid-range game, is an excellent passer, handles the ball well, and can finish at the rim.

The one major knock on his skillset is his ability to shoot 3-pters. But I already made a case why I dont believe that is legitimate previously:

A lot of people think Otto Porter's shooting is a fluke because only shot 22% from 3-pt range his freshman season. While that is reasonable, people are missing how great Porter was shooting mid-range jumpers his first season. Porter didn't play AAU and the 3-pt ball wasn't stressed to him as much as most kids. Instead, shooting mechanics were a priority and his are very consistent. According to hoop-math.com, Porter shot an outstanding 51% on 2-pt jumpers last season. This season he worked to extend his range back a few feet which resulted him him taking twice as many threes while making 42.2% of them. Porter will have to adjust even farther to the NBA line, but make no mistake that he can shoot the ball. His situation from year one to two is a lot like a young power hitter who didn't hit a lot of homers his first season, but had a lot of doubles. You know the power is there, it was just shown in a different way.
So even with all the questions answered about his skillset, there are still questions about his potential. No, he isn't an elite athlete but he has skills that elite athletes will never be able to obtain. He has a feel for the game that isn't common. And he has plenty of size and length to make up for his "average" athleticism.

I don't even think Porter is that bad of an athlete. He's not a one on one player who will over dribble and attempt to beat you with his quickness. But thats not always a good thing either. Porter beats you in ways you want your players to beat you. He thinks the game. He lets the game come to him and doesn't need the ball to be effective. At the same time, there is nothing in his skillset that says he can't take over a game. He did it at Georgetown against Syracuse through his passing, but he will have freedom to be a more aggressive scorer in the NBA.

Porter may not cross guys up and create his own shots from a traditional perspective, but he had no problem getting to spots and taking guys off the dribble in college. Porter can drive with either hand and understands angles extremely well. He is able to attack the defense through drives like a point guard - he doesn't necessarily get to the rim, but knows how to draw defenses and change speeds. He doesn't force anything with the ball in his hands. And he's a great passer who can drive and kick and make skip and lead passes. His unselfishness is one of his best traits and was magnified by Georgetown's Princeton offense.

But again, don't let that make you believe he can't be a good scorer. Don't make the same mistake scouts made with previous Georgetown players. I'm still looking for a reason why he won't be able to score in the NBA and can't find one.

He's certainly creative and crafty enough to score. Its no secret that Porter is crafty, but imagine him in an offense that allows him to show that. Porter can do many things with the ball, changes directions way too well for a man of his size, and really showed off this ability in transition. You want to see what Porter is capable of? Watch him at Georgetown in transition plays. He had a knack for getting fouled, finding a teammate on the run with a lead pass, crossing someone on the move, or making an acrobatic finish. His body control in these situations is amazing.

With his body control, Porter is able to be a good finisher. No, he isn't the next LeBron James or even Paul George when it comes to finishing at the rim. You won't see him throwing down many powerful dunks at the next level. But he has very good touch and finishes well with either hand. He is also very underrated when it comes to toughness and strength. He has a frame that could stand to add weight, but he is one of the toughest players in the draft. He loves playing inside and boxes out/crashes the offensive glass at all opportunities.

The best part of his offensive game is his mid-range game, something he showed quite often at Georgetown. He ate up the Syracuse zone twice by working the high post area. The mid-range game in college basketball is a dying breed, but Porter still managed to make it effective. Thats a testament to how good his mid-range game is. In the NBA, the mid-range game is so much more important and its scary to think what Porter could do with the much space to dissect a defense. His mid-range game is worlds ahead of most small forwards at this stage.

He is nearly impossible to cover in the mid-range area because he can beat you in multiple ways. The first is with his passing. He was the director of the offense at Georgetown and understands the game so well. He has outstanding vision in the high post, utilizes bounce passes, and can see over the defense. Finding a cutting teammate is always his first thought when getting the ball in the lane.

Porter also is a very polished jump shooter in the high post though. He has a turnaround jumper in the post, a faceup fadeaway jump shot, and a pullup jumper off the dribble. His release is quick and high. He gets his shoulders squared to the basket and gets good elevation through leg power. With his size, his shot is very hard to contest and he makes a very high percentage of these shots. Its why I trust that he can continue to shoot well from beyond the arc as well.

Porter is extremely versatile on the offensive end and understands mismatches for not only himself, but for his teammates as well. In the NBA game, his ability to see and take advantage of these mismatches will be even more valuable.

His ability to play without the ball in his hand will be valuable as well. He can play alongside a poor handling backcourt because he is such a good ball handler and passer for a 3, but he can also play next to ball dominant guys because he does a lot of his work off the ball. He will never be an isolation guy.

Porter works so hard off the ball, he usually gets to the foul line at least once a game simply because he was fouled without the ball in his hands. Whether a defender is trying to battled him in the post, keep him off the boards, or contain him on a screen Porter keeps his defender working. He knows how to come off screens, find soft spots in the defense (again, see Syracuse regular season games), cut to the rim, run the give and go, and get the ball off the rim.

Just because the most comparable player in terms of style may be Tayshaun Prince, it doesn't mean that is where Porter's upside ends. He is more advanced than Prince at this age and has a better frame. There really isnt a player better than Prince that you can compare to Porter in terms of style, but Porter has a clear advantage from a talent and upside perspective. If you compare Porter's sophomore year numbers to Prince in his senior year, Porter has the advantage (make sure you use pace adjusted numbers due to Georgetown's slow pace).

In my opinion, Porter will safely be a top 10 SF in the league. He won't surpass the top guys like LeBron, Melo, KD, Paul George, and say Andrew Wiggins but he will be right behind them. He doesn't have the ability to dominate like any of those guys, but he can help a team win more than any other small forward in the league other than that group.

Thats just him on offense. From a defense perspective, Otto Porter should be very good as well - if not better. The biggest knock on him as a defender is he lacks top notch lateral quickness to stay in front of quicker small forwards. But what he lacks in lateral quickness, he makes up for with his length and anticipation skills. I dont think we will have to worry about him being consistently beat off the dribble by many players, but for those ones that do - Porter does a great job funneling them into the teeth of the defense.

Defense these days is mainly about versatility and Porter should be able to switch on a lot of screens to cover bigger forwards and even some guards. He does a good job keeping his balance against quicker guys and recovering to contest shots. He communicates on defense, knows when it is appropriate to switch or gamble, and provides excellent help defense. He has a very high basketball IQ and it really shows on both ends of the court. Porter also rebounders very well. He boxes out and doesn't hesitate going into a crowd with stronger players.

Otto Porter has as much of a chance to be an all-star at the next level than anyone else in this draft and should be in consideration for the #1 pick. Cleveland was a big fan of Porter when they were projected to pick third in the draft, but things do change a bit at the #1 spot. Noel has to be considered heavily, but if they choose to be weary of his injuries, Porter should be the only other guy they consider. He is a perfect fit next to Kyrie Irving. If he slips past Cleveland, the Wizards will be in prime position to get him at #3 but could look to choose Anthony Bennett over him. If they do, that means Porter could slip to #5 or even farther which would make him a huge steal in this draft. 

Friday, March 1, 2013

Which Teams Will Reign Supreme in 2013-14?

I'll admit, looking ahead to next year's college basketball season already is a little unmindful. Conference tournaments still have yet to start and the NCAA tournament is still a month away. However, there is a curious side to me and I imagine many fans as well, that want to see what the following season has in store for us. Next year will be a big year for conference realignment with Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Memphis, and Temple among the movers. For one year at the very least, the power off the ACC will be restored and the Big East will remain relevant.

There is still a lot up in the air for next year - we don't know about transfer, players declaring for the draft, and we are still waiting on 3 of the 4 class of 2013 recruits to commit. The only top 4 player committed already is Jabari Parker who committed to Duke back in December.

And with that - I suppose Duke and Jabari Parker are a good place to start when looking at next year. Parker's final decision came down to Michigan State and the Blue Devils and he ultimately chose to head south. Parker cited Branden Dawson's presence at forward as a big factor in his decision. But looking at the rosters, Michigan State has a greater need for Parker than Duke does.

Michigan State and Duke appear to be early favorites for next year and you can throw in Kentucky into that conversation as well - with or without Andrew Wiggins. Michigan State will return everyone except Derrick Nix and should be the most cohesive group from the start. Kentucky will obviously be the most talented, but also the least experienced. Duke finds themselves in the middle of the two teams - loaded with talent but also a fair amount of experience.

Here is what Duke's projected depth chart looks like:

Quinn Cook/Tyler Thornton
Rasheed Sulaimon/Andre Dawkins/Matt Jones
Rodney Hood/Alex Murphy/Semi Ojeleye
Jabari Parker/Amile Jefferson
Marshall Plumlee/Josh Hairston

Cook, Thornton, Hairston, and even Andre Dawkins, who should return to the team, will offer veteran leadership. And just about every rotation guy except for Parker has spent a season practicing with the team (Rodney Hood has practiced all year with the team and has been impressive by all accounts). The thing that stands out for this Duke team is how stacked they are on the wing. I can't remember a team as loaded as they are. 

Yet Jabari Parker felt that he would have an easier time fitting in with Duke than Michigan State.

Who does Michigan State have on the wing?

Well with Nix leaving, you can expect Branden Dawson to get even more minutes next year as their power forward. That leaves them with Gary Harris, Russell Byrd, and Denzel Valentine to split up about 80 minutes of playing time. Parker seems like a huge asset for them and he would even be able to spend much more time out on the perimeter playing his NBA small forward position. 

Perhaps it wasn't necessarily playing time that Parker was worried about as it was fit. On Michigan State, Parker would have been asked to compliment Dawson - a guy without much ability handling or shooting the ball. Parker would've been expected to make plays on the perimeter and that just isn't his bread and butter currently. Duke has the shooters and ball handlers that should make Parker's life easier.

Nevertheless, Michigan State still figures into the top 5 conversation. Their backcourt with Keith Appling and Gary Harris will be very tough to beat and I see Denzel Valentine sliding over to play small forward. Dawson and Payne make up a good tandem inside.

The only thing that could hurt Michigan State is if Gary Harris enters the draft. Chad Ford seems to be trying to push him that way - saying that he is a potential lottery pick. I've always envisioned Harris as a guy who stays a couple of years though, even though he has played like a first rounder through conference play. Duke could afford a surprise draft early entrant like Rasheed Sulaimon and not miss a stride, but Gary Harris very well could be the Spartan's most important player next season.

Michigan State's projected depth chart looks like this:

Keith Appling/Travis Trice
Gary Harris
Denzel Valentine/Russell Byrd
Brendan Dawson/Alex Gauna
Adriean Payne/Matt Costello

Kentucky is the final team that should get #1 consideration heading into next season. This year has been a disappointed for them, but this next recruiting class they have coming in is on a different level of special. The Harrison Twins, James Young, Dakari Johnson, Marcus Lee, and homegrown Derek Willis figure to fit much better together than this year's current squad.

For one, they have a point guard and to top it off, he already has plenty of chemistry with his backcourt mate. The Harrison Twins are not only athlete, but have a good understanding of the game and can spread the floor. Andrew has no problem leading a team and getting everyone involved and has always embraced the point guard role. His brother Aaron will join James Young as another athletic wing with good size and unlimited range on jumpers.

The difference between these guys and their soon to be incumbents is skill level. Goodwin and Poythress were athletes with limited skills and a poor understanding of the game. You can't say that about any of these three perimeter players.

And on the inside, a guy like Marcus Lee is exactly who you want on a stacked team. Lee is an exception athlete with a high IQ and is very unselfish as well. He is perfectly fine anchoring a defense, running the court, and crashing the glass for his contributions on offense. He is also a sneaky good passer for his size, although the rest of his skills are a work in progress. 

Dakari Johnson will work well with him as he can handle the scoring load while Lee provides the shotblocking threat. There is also a chance that Willie Cauley-Stein could be back to add depth. 

One guy who is sure to be back is Kyle Wiltjer, who will give them an experienced returnee that they lacked last year. His 3-pt shooting next to the other sharpshooters will be a lethal combination. Especially when Andrew Harrison starts making plays in the lane and the big men are finishing inside.

Ryan Harrow should be back as well and he's in an interesting situation. The idea, or hope at least, for him this year was to start at PG and lead this Kentucky team to another deep run before heading to the draft. Now with Kentucky struggling to even make the tournament, he is kind of in no-man's land. If he declares for the draft, he won't be selected and he's not even a likely candidate to walk onto an NBA roster or a strong overseas team. 

His other choice is to stay with Kentucky and accept the backup point guard role behind Andrew Harrison. He's kind of like the kid who failed 7th grade and had to repeat it over, except this time his new classmates are even smarter. 

The scary thing is that Kentucky still has a good chance to land another blue chipper like Andrew Wiggins, Julius Randle, or Aaron Gordon.

Other teams with top 5 potential include Louisville, Ohio State, Syracuse, Georgetown, Memphis, Indiana, and Arizona. A lot of the usual suspects.

While Duke, Michigan State, and Kentucky are early favorites to win the conferences they've been a part of for decades - the Big East loses Pittsburgh and Syracuse, while picking up Memphis, Houston, SMU, and UCF. The Big East is in for an obvious drop off once the Catholic 7 leaves, but the 2013 season still looks strong.

Battling for the top spot will be Louisville, Georgetown, and Memphis while Villanova, Connecticut, and St. John's should all be improved next season. Marquette will find a way into the top 25 as well.

Louisville may have the best shot at the Big East title, but whether Russ Smith and Gorgui Dieng stay or declare for the NBA Draft is still up in the air. Regardless, they have the talent to lose both along with senior Peyton Siva and still remain a contender.

Montrezl Harrell is ready to take over the center role for Dieng and nobody can replicate what Russ Smith brings, the insertion of Luke Hancock into the lineup would offer them a different look. Smith could shoot them out of the game just as he could shoot them into one - with Hancock they will have a player who is unselfish and able to make teammates better.

The rest of the Cardinal's players are expected to return and will be joined by a loaded recruiting class. Chris Jones was the top Juco in the country and should be ready to handle point guard early. He will have help from Terry Rozier, a post-grad player, who should also be ready for immediate action. Anton Gill is another stud who played with Rozier and Hargrave Military Academy and will be more ready for the step up to college basketball than most recruits.

It will be up to Chane Behanan and Wayne Blackshear to step up and provide some leadership, but if they do, this Louisville team can just be as good - if not better - than the current one. And if Russ Smith and Dieng do come back? Then they are even scarier.

Syracuse is next in line in the Big East, even with the expected departures of Brandon Triche, Michael Carter-Williams, and James Southerland. Freshman Tyler Ennis will be asked to take over the point guard role and he is more than capable. While Ennis isn't as flashy as MCW, he may be the most college ready freshman guard Syracuse has had in awhile. Ennis will provide balance, leadership, and plenty of experience winning to the table. He will need help from Trevor Cooney, Ron Patterson, and Duke transfer Michael Gbinjie though as they look to be the only options at guard.

Next year, the strength of the Orange will shift to the inside where Fair, Grant, Christmas, Coleman, and Keita all already find themselves in this year's rotation. Fair and Grant will need to continue to develop their perimeter skills to slide over and play small forward, while a jump in production from DaJuan Coleman would be nice. Coleman brings the most offensive potential out of the center rotation.

Then there is Georgetown - who you may think I am projecting Otto Porter returning to school based on my lofty ranking of them - but I think they will be good with or without him. Porter is certainly their best player this year, but he likely will be unable to pass up a spot in the lottery of the NBA Draft.

That is where Greg Whittington can step up and re-establish his name with the Hoya faithful. Georgetown has played much better with him out of the lineup, but that doesn't have anything to do with him being a bad player. Instead, the pairing of Whittington and Porter together preventing them from pressing and adding another dynamic scoring guard on the floor. Since he's gone down, Georgetown has been great and next year it can be Whittington that steps in for a departed Porter. Whittington isn't as good as Porter, but can provide similar versatility. The rest of the Georgetown roster will all be back which is scary considering it already looks like the young guys have established great chemistry and have the offense mastered.

Memphis will be the newcomer in the Big East and while they will have to get used to a higher level of competition on a nightly basis, they will have all the talent to compete for a top spot. Josh Pastner has the second best recruiting class in the nation, but the biggest contributors are already on the roster. None of the top 100 recruits will come in and start right away, but the will provide nice depth and an insurance policy in case Adonis Thomas decides to leave for the draft.

Memphis will have a balanced team from 1-5 with Joe Jackson, Geron Johnson, Adonis Thomas, Shaq Goodwin, and Tariq Black as the starter. Austin Nichols will be able to add to the big man rotation right away, taking over the undersized DJ Stephens role and you can expect a lot of small ball lineups with Thomas at the PF spot as well. Freshman small forwards Nick King and Kuran Iverson are both intriguing players - King may be more ready and does a nice job in the mid-range area and drawing fouls, while Iverson is a very long wing with a skillset he is still learning to use efficiently.

As far as other power conferences, it looks like Arizona will be a big favorite out west and Ohio State and Indiana will once again be near the top in Big Ten play. Kansas still holds the keys to the Big 12 - a very weak Big 12 to be honest.

Maybe the biggest wildcard in the Big Ten is Michigan who came into this year having the youngest team in the league. The only question is just how much will they lose to the draft. Burke, Hardaway Jr, and Robinson III all have seen their stock soar thanks to Michigan's play. Burke was nearly gone last year, so he's a sure thing to move on this season. Hardaway Jr likely follows him. Glenn Robinson III will be faced with an interesting decision of leaving while his stock is high or coming back and trying to lead Michigan himself.

From Robinson's game, I think his best option may be to follow Hardaway Jr and Burke out the door. Robinson III was known in high school for taking a back seat and rarely fully imposing his will on games and that is something he will be expected to do if he comes back next year. Right now, he isn't getting questions about his assertiveness or ability to create plays because he hasn't had to alongside two ball dominant guards. Next year will be a completely different monster for Robinson III and Im not quite sure he is cut out for it.

Michigan has a strong recruiting class coming in, but it isn't as star studded as the past two. If those three leave Michigan, the Wolverines won't be contending for the Big Ten title next year.

Indiana and Ohio State both have NBA Draft concerns as well, but they have insurance policies in place. Indiana has probably already come to grips that next year will be a chapter without both Oladipo and Zeller. Ohio State probably will get Craft back, but Thomas could flirt with putting his name into the draft. Fortunately for Ohio State, they have two up and coming forwards itching for an expanded role in LaQuinton Ross and Sam Thompson.

Indiana's projected team looks like this:

Yogi Ferrell/Maurice Creek
Remy Abel/Stanford Robinson
Will Sheehey/Troy Williams/Austin Etherington
Noah Vonleh/Hanner Mosquera-Perea
Peter Jurkin/Luke Fischer


The perimeter play of this group should be solid - Ferrell is ready for a starring role, Abel has potential, and Sheehey is already one of the best 6 men in the country. Stanford Robinson and Troy Williams are both strong recruits that will give the Hoosiers even more size on the wings.

There is more mystery around their big men as we still aren't sure what Indiana has with Hanner Mosquera-Perea and Peter Jurkin. Between those two and Fischer though, Indiana should find a decent starter to fit beside top 10 recruit Noah Vonleh. You can even say Vonleh is a bit of a mystery as its hard to say whether he will have the impact of a Freshman of the Year candidate or not.

For the Buckeyes, Evan Ravenel and his 19 minutes per game will be gone. If Thomas comes back, he will step into the full time power forward role - something he has already done a good bit this season while showing some toughness on the block in the process. Ravenel's minutes would likely be redistributed to Sam Thompson, LaQuinton Ross, and Shannon Scott who all are definitely deserving of a chance to play more than 20 minutes a game. And if Thomas leaves they will lose a dimension to their offense, but Ohio State has plenty of capable players to share his minutes. Either way, Ohio State will be a very good team. With Thomas, they should be the favorite over Indiana in the Big Ten and a top 5 team.

Early 2013-14 Top Ten Prediction

1. Duke
2. Kentucky
3. Michigan State
4. Louisville
5. Syracuse
6. Georgetown
7. Ohio State
8. Arizona
9. Memphis
10. Indiana

20 More to Watch:


Florida
Gonzaga
Iowa
Maryland
Louisiana Tech
Indiana State
Virginia
Kansas
VCU
LSU
Colorado
Marquette
Villanova
UConn
Baylor
St. John's
BYU
Alabama
Michigan
North Carolina

Sunday, January 6, 2013

Notes on Otto Porter vs Marquette

Marquette 49, Georgetown 48

This was a tight game the whole way through between two great defensive teams. Both are tough to drive on - for Georgetown it is because of their length, while Marquette's defenders have quick hands that create a lot of steals. This was more of a great defensive battle that was fun to watch as opposed to an ugly offensive affair.

Otto Porter finished with 13 points and lead the Hoyas with 13 shot attempts. He was able to get a lot of good looks in the mid-range area, where he is generally very successful with his jumper. Porter isn't a guy who creates these mid-range looks with the ball in his hands, instead he has an old school approach where he actually spots up from 15-18 feet. He has no problem getting his shot off in this area with his quick, high release. Porter also gets mid-range looks off curls and post up opportunities. He has solid fundamentals in the post and can hit contested turnaround jumpers.

His ball handling isn't very creative and he lacks an explosive first step. On a couple of occasions, he had trouble creating any kind of space against Jamil Wilson. Porter's go-to off the dribble move is a behind the back move, which is mainly only successful in creating a small space for jumpers.

When he does get penetration, Porter is a great passer and has the length and smoothness to finish at the rim - but again, he isn't very explosive. One thing I like about Porter is that he is always around the boards when the shot goes up and looking for someone to box out. There are a lot of parts that scream "old school" about his game and his toughness is one of them. It goes back to the days of pickup basketball against his dad and uncles.

Defensively, Porter is a great team defender who creates problems with his feel for the game and length. He stuffs the box score with steals and blocks. He is versatile and can cover just about anyone in the college game. In the NBA, his versatility, IQ, and length should make him an above average defender although he will struggle more with the spacing of the NBA game. He is not especially quick laterally.

Vander Blue - Blue continues to hit jumpers this year, a new development in his game. He takes some extremely tough, acrobatic shots and has a knack for making them. These high percentage shots aren't ideal, but certainly show his talent. He needs to be a much more reliable threat spotting up though. He's like a wide receiver who makes the highlight reel plays, but struggles to make the routine plays consistently.

After a strong game against UConn, Junior Cadougan couldn't make anything vs Georgetown. Cadougan is the heart and soul of the offense and as he goes, so does the scoring. He still was able to manage the game as always though, and helped Marquette squeeze out an ugly win.

Trent Lockett has struggled finding his role with his new team, but played one of his best games thus far, grabbing 10 rebounds. He should become more of a factor in the physical battles that the Big East brings.

Wednesday, November 21, 2012

The Barclay's Curse? Legend Classic Doesn't Live Up to Name

Do not be alarmed. The Legends Classic brought 4 good games of basketball to Barclays Center over the past two days. It was a great showcase of talent and solid field. Indiana ended up living up to their number one ranking while winning an exciting overtime thriller against Georgetown.

But LEGENDS?

This tournament brought us our first look at Shabazz Muhammad, a potential first overall selection. But he struggled along with the rest of the UCLA team.

It also featured Cody Zeller, another contender for the number one position. Indiana took home the trophy, but Zeller looked very human in the process. He struggled to create separation in the post and with his 6-10 wingspan, those shots will end up getting blocked in the NBA.

Neither player took a step towards the "legend" platform. These games only brought up more questions.

Both players had a chance to grab an early lead in the wide open race for the first overall pick. This year is the most open race since the 2006 draft when Andrea Bargnani went first and its looking like it could stay that way.

In recent years, the number one guys all started off with a hot start to drive up the hype train - Davis, Irving, Wall, and Griffin.

I've never looked at Zeller as a great option first overall and figured someone would step up early. So far, that hasnt happened.

There were some quotes from NBA executives after the Monday Night's slate of games at Barclay's that summed up this thinking.

Essentially, scouts think this will be a draft where the top teams would rather have multiple picks later on in the first instead of in the top 5. The choice at number one could depend on which team is picking - different from years past where there has been a consensus best player.

More players could enter the mold for number one. Nerlens Noel is certainly in the discussion, but failed to impress in his college debut, also at Barclay's.

It seems that Barclay's got its NBA team, but is in no hurry to push the next era of superstars to the next level. Perhaps the arena wants to try to delay their NBA dreams a few years, just like their dream of hosting a NBA franchise was delayed.

Call it the Barclay's Curse.

Disclaimer: I don't believe in curses. 

Monday, November 19, 2012

Shabazz makes debut, but the Hoyas Get the Win

The atmosphere was set at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn for UCLA, ready to unveil its star recruit Shabazz Muhammad against unranked Georgetown. Shabazz came off the bench for Howland, who has to give a lot of credit to the star recruit for perhaps saving his job, and the crowd creeped towards the edge of their seats to get a look at the future NBA lottery pick.

The script was set for UCLA (favored by 6) to get the win and put themselves back on the map. After the Sports Illustrated article last year, Howland was ready to start a new chapter for UCLA, a chapter that involved high character kids including other prized recruit Kyle Anderson. Georgetown got off to the early lead, but when Shabazz came off the at just under 14 minutes, the lead was only 4. Shabazz came in and pulled up for his first shot - a mid-range jumper - and it went straight through the hoop.

14-12 Georgetown - here comes UCLA.

Georgetown was being outscored in transition and on the break - two indicators that the Bruins could start to pull away. The biggest indicator though, was #15 in blue.

The country didn't know this Georgetown team though. They matched up well with the Bruins, sporting two big wings of their own in Greg Whittington and Otto Porter. The Hoyas play the way the Bruins need to play. They share the basketball and allow their 6-8 versatile forward, Otto Porter, to help facilitate the offense. UCLA, with their own 6-8 point forward in Kyle Anderson, had an up close look how it was done.

Greg Whittington was hot early. He was stepping out and hitting jumpers and gave Shabazz his first "welcome to the NCAA moment". Shabazz had an attempt on the break and went straight at Whittington - only to get hung up in the air as Whittington prevented the shot from getting out of his hands.

It wasn't the last time Shabazz landed on the floor and got in the mix in the painted area. Otto Porter was able to post him up down low for a couple of buckets. Shabazz returned the favor against Georgetown's small Jabril Trawick, hitting a close range turnaround jumper in his face. Shabazz went hard to the hoop each time he had the chance and probably has the bruises to show for it. He attacks the rim with a fearlessness much like a Dwyane Wade.

His debut was viewed as a bit of a disappointment for NBA scouts, but keep in mind he had only had a few days of practice due to a high ankle sprain. He poured in 15 points effortlessly in 25 minutes, showcasing a nice stroke from outside. Muhammad's release is effortless and he doesn't have much extra movement in his shot. He struggled on defense, but covering guys like Otto Porter is a big change from his days in high school. He mainly was beat defending the post.

UCLA has their work cut out for them defensively. This UCLA team shouldn't go the way of teams in the past because their freshman are high character guys, but the defense should be a major concern. When UCLA went to three straight final fours, their defense was top 3 in the nation each year. This years team has work to do to even be average.

For one, its tough to get a group of new players to learn to play cohesive as a team. With a bunch of freshman and transfer Larry Drew, they have to get used to each other. Even then, guys like Adams, Drew, and Anderson aren't good perimeter defenders. And inside, the Wear twins are good post defenders but dont make anyone think twice about driving the lane. Neither does the immobile Josh Smith who defines the phrase "below the rim center". He also defines a waste of potential, but we will save that for a rainy day.

Without that defense, UCLA may have to turn to a higher octane offense and go in a different direction from teams of the past. It seems Howland may already be doing that if the pace of their game today is any indicator. This Bruins team may look to run and it'd certainly be a good fit. Teams of the past played a strict halfcourt style that often limited the teams guards, resulting in them getting overlooked in the NBA Draft.

With a host of good guards this year and a unconventional Kyle Anderson, the Bruins could maximize their potential and hide their defensive holes by running. With Howland's job possibly on the brink, its within the realm to imagine him changing up his style.

As for Georgetown, their famous style is working just fine. I talked about them earlier this season calling them a sleeper, so this game comes as little surprise to me. Porter and Whittington are a special combo that when paired together creates major problems for opponents. The Hoyas can play them at the wing positions and overwhelm the opposition with size on defense and not suffer on offense.

The biggest question with them is their ability to hit the outside shot. Whittington was 1-8 on the year before going 3-4 tonight. His shot looks solid though, and I did see him hit some long 2-pt baskets in his other games. As for Porter, he rarely looks for the jumper but made both of his 3s tonight. He doesn't get off a lot of jumpers and has a slow release, bringing the ball down to his hip before firing.

Porter finished with 18 points and filled up the rest of the stat sheet with steals, blocks, assists, and rebounds. You can't help but to love his game. He is one of the best all around players in college basketball and perhaps the best at contributing to wins in ways other than scoring. This makes him invaluable at the college level and very intriguing at the next level. The NBA doesn't necessarily need guys who can score.

Still, Porter's biggest question will revolve around how he can score at the next level. Porter gets a lot of his baskets off cuts, transition, putbacks, and post up plays. As a small forward, Porter needs to show at least either a jumper or the ability to drive the lane consistently and finish. And his jumper is broken right now.

Porter also is a bit slow on his feet, yet his outstanding feel for the game tends to make up for it. Scouts in general came away impressed with him tonight, but this is just a typical game for Mr. Porter.

The high point man in this game was actually UCLA's Jordan Adams. He's been a pleasant surprise this season and wasn't going to take a back seat to Muhammad tonight. He jacks up shots at a high rate, prompting Jonathan Givony to make a Jordan Hamilton comparison.

Obviously, he probably didn't mean it as a comparison on their games too, but I think Adams is a lot better college player than Hamilton was his freshman year. Hamilton's freshman year consisted of a comical amount of ridiculous 3-pt attempts and not much else.

Adams loves his jumper the same way, but shows a lot more intelligence on both ends of the court. He is a better driver, has good instincts on when to cut, plays tough inside, and seems to really want to win. His body control is worlds better than Hamilton's. He has a great natural touch on his shots and is automatic from the free throw line.

In terms of NBA stock though, his potential is much less intriguing than Hamilton's. He plays below the rim and his body dimensions are very unusual for a shooting guard. Along with being a chucker, Adams has some obstacles to climb over if he wants to be a first round pick anytime soon.