Examining The PGs Outside of Burke, MCW, and Schroeder

One of the most intriguing positions this year is the lead guard position. The position is far from top heavy with just Trey Burke a lock for the lottery. It even lacks any other locks for the first round besides Michael Carter-Williams and CJ McCollom if you count him. What it does have is a lot of second round depth and a lot of competition. You can be certain that there will be another PG besides the ones mentioned above going in the first round, but the question is who? There are plenty of names to choose from and all of them have an argument to go within the first 30 picks. The second round could see quite a few point guards taken, which has not been a trend of the past couple of years. This draft lacks the surefire starters, but it could produce as many quality NBA rotational players since at least 2009.

Trey Burke is by far and away the best point guard in this class and is also arguably the safest pick in the entire draft. Depending on who wins the lottery, he could even go #1 overall. At the end of the day, I don't see a likely scenario where he slips out of the top 5.

Burke doesn't have the measurables or athleticism of your typical top 5 point guard. He might not even measure 6-0 and isn't ultra quick or explosive. But what he does have is an advanced knowledge of the game. Burke understands when to attack, when to pass, and how to get his teammates the ball where they need it. He runs the pick and roll like a surgeon and is always in complete control of the offense. He can get his points when needed, but he is also a great passer who makes his teammates better.

His predecessor, Darius Morris, took an entire year before he understood John Beilein's complex system enough to gain his trust. Thats why he was one of the most improved players statistically his sophomore season. Its just very hard to adjust to Beilein's offense as a freshman.

Yet Trey Burke was good enough to start his freshman year and allowed plenty of freedom from John Beilein. Based off that alone, you could tell that this kid was going to be special.

When I'm evaluating point guard prospects, I take a especially close look at their ability to control the tempo of the game, I also like to see how they handle adversity, run the pick and roll, change speeds, and balance scoring and passing. A point guard cannot disappear during the game. A point guard has to be the rock of the team. That is what I am looking for, guys with those traits. Trey Burke has all of that. 

There are other guys in this draft that lack these things, but have gotten by on potential. Myck Kabongo comes to mind immediately. You can even include Lorenzo Brown to an extent as his develop as a point guard isn't what you'd like to see from a junior. Michael Carter-Williams fits as well, although he's viewed on a higher tier as the rest of these guys. If you want to read more on him, check out my latest Stock Attack.

I want to focus more on the rest of the collegiate point guards in this piece and give a good overview on what to expect from each of them. All of these guys have a chance to stick in the NBA.

Nate Wolters

Strengths: Wolters is known for his scoring, but his biggest asset may be the way he attacks a defense. He knows how to read a defense and react. He understands angles and forces defenses to commit to him. He's a good passer who does an excellent job getting his teammates in good spots. He is also a very tough competitor and a gym rat. His jumper got better every year and he is constantly looking for ways to perfect it. There is a stigma around him that he's a just a shooter, but he's a very balanced scoring who looks to attack off the bounce more often than not. He should be very good in the pick and roll as he really has a good feel with the ball in his hands. In a lot of ways, he reminds me of Jeremy Lin. 

Weaknesses: Wolters is just a average athlete and will need to get stronger to play at the next level. He lacks the explosiveness to be a great finisher around the rim. He also struggles to stay in front of players, although he did a great job funneling Trey Burke into help defense in the NCAA tournament. Wolters has good height to help him overcome some of his shortcomings athletically, but below average length for his size. 

Shane Larkin

Strengths: Larkin is very quick and is nearly impossible to contain in the pick and roll. He's a pure shooter with a quick release. He also has good touch inside with a very reliable floater and is able to change speeds. He did a good job mixing up his scoring and his passing this year. He has excellent burst and can beat you in many different ways. He's very comfortable shooting off the dribble in either direction and its very tough to stop him. He does a good job getting his jumpers off, but he doesn't look to settle for just jumpers. Larkin is also a very confident and competitive player who doesn't get rattled.

Weaknesses: Larkin will measure out at under 6-0 at the combine most likely. And while he is very quick and fast, he isn't the most explosive player. He lacks a great build, although he is stronger and tougher than he looks. He also will have to continue to prove his passing abilities and show that he is a true point guard. His in between game also needs work. Defenses in the NBA won't be as afraid of his quickness, so he will have to deal more with tighter defense and NBA length. He didn't see much of that in college because his speed forced teams to go under screens and give him room. He also struggles to get all the way to the rim even though his floater game render that a moot point in college.

Erick Green

Strengths: Erick Green was arguably the best scorer in the country this season and a large part was due to his silky smooth jumper. He's very quick and had no problem creating space to get shots off and elevating over opponents. He has a great mid-range game and is effective in the pick and roll. Green also is lethal in transition where he forces a defender to stop him dead in his tracks if they want to prevent a bucket. Green has a high basketball IQ and is very unselfish, despite his scoring numbers. At Virginia Tech, they needed him to be a scorer so that is what he did, but it doesn't mean he can't run point guard. He just didn't have a good team around him. Finally, Green is a good defender who managed to play hard on that end of the court well. He is obviously very well conditioned.

Weaknesses: Green has spent his time at Virginia Tech being a scorer and hasn't had time gaining experience as a true point guard. He will have to learn the position as he goes in the NBA. Green also has a narrow frame and lacks strength. He could have trouble defending stronger guards. Green also may struggle against physical defense. His lack of success in college in terms of winning will also be something teams will look for answers to.

Phil Pressey 

Strengths: Pressey is a pure point guard who gets into the lane at will and finds teammates. He plays with a ton of confidence and with the sense that he is always the best player on the court. He is one of the few pass first point guards in college nowadays and possessing outstanding vision. He's a creative passer and is able to create plays from nothing. He does an excellent job pushing the ball in transition and can stop and pull up on the move. There is plenty of fight with Pressey and he wants to win badly. He always wants the ball in his hands with the game on the line.

Weaknesses: Pressey will have to overcome his size and his inability to finish at the rim at the next level. He also made some questionable decisions down the stretch of games this season. He tries to do too much a lot of times and turned it over more than any other PG prospect. Although he has great vision, his game management needs a lot of work. Pressey had a bit of a down year after most of his teammates left for the NBA last season. He's a solid shooter, but not great and will have trouble getting his shot off in the pros. Defense will also be hard for him and he didn't always play with good effort on that side of the ball.  He lacks the explosiveness or scoring instincts of other small guards who have been successful in the NBA as of late.

Pierre Jackson

Strengths: Jackson is a dynamic player, both in terms of scoring and passing. He was the first player since Jason Terry to lead a BCS conference in scoring and assists. Jackson is very quick and packs a lot of explosiveness in his small frame. He can get to his spots at will on the court, pull up and hit mid-range jumpers, and also knock down deep threes. Jackson also has no problem breaking down defenses and creating for others. He's a competitive, hard working player who doesn't have any glaring weaknesses. He projects as a Nate Robinson type instant offense off the bench, but with better court sense.

Weaknesses: Jackson is another guard who is undersized and may be closer to 5-9 than 6-0. He will struggle defensively and will also need to show a better effort there. Jackson will need to add some bulk to continue to play his style. He also needs to continue to work on his point guard skills by changing speeds and making the simple plays. He turns the ball over a little too much at this point.

Isaiah Canaan

Strengths: Canaan was one of the best scorers in college basketball thanks to his jump shot with unlimited range. He mastered the art of pulling up from deep in transition. He also is able to create his shot with his crossover and step back move from both 3-pt range and inside the arc. Canaan has a strong frame and plays with a chip on his shoulder. He is also very good shooting with his feet set. In terms of putting the ball in the basket, there aren't many guys that do it better than him.

Weaknesses: Canaan is undersized and not a pure point guard. He doesn't get off the ground very quickly. His shot release is also a little slow for a guy who projects as a shooter at the next level. Canaan looks to score more than pass and its not clear whether he has the ability to make plays for others. This year he was able to show improvement in terms of changing speeds. It is also a question of whether he can defend. Canaan struggled to answer many of these questions last summer during skill camps.

Myck Kabongo

Strengths: Kabongo has very good length and quickness for a point guard, enabling him to be a pesky defender and come up with plenty of steals. Kabongo has no problem breaking down defenses and getting into the paint, where he is a solid drive and dish point guard. He has good handles and has budding leadership skills. Kabongo also is a high character guy who has been through a lot in his life. The general skills that Kabongo possess are what many seek in a point guard - high character, defense, pass first, quickness, and the ability to get by defenders.

Weaknesses: Kabongo never put together a good season in college and was suspended for his relationship with a NBA agent. While he seems like a good kid, many believe he is being misled by those around him. Kabongo also has poor mechanics on his shot and lacks a great feel for the point guard position. He only plays at one speed and dominates the ball. He's also turnover prone and needs to get stronger. His ability to run a team will need major work and he'll likely have to spend a year in the D-League at least.

Ray McCallum

Strengths: McCallum turned it over less than any other point guard with the potential to get drafted, despite being a huge part of his teams offense. He is the coach's son and plays like one. He plays under control and at a steady pace. He is able to get all the way to the rim, but also has a developing mid-range game. McCallum is a very good passer as well, although this season he took on the scoring role. Part of the reason his turnovers were so low was because he took a lot of quick jumpers and didn't attempt to force any drives or passes. McCallum is deceptively quick and does a good job running the pick and roll. He is also a solid athlete. 

Weaknesses: McCallum improved his jumper this year, but still shot a fairly low percentage from the 3-pt line. His jumper looked good, however, and he had to take a lot of tough contested shots. There is also a question of whether McCallum is dynamic enough as a player. He doesn't do anything at an elite or even very good level. McCallum also has short arms and can have trouble finishing at the next level. He didn't play against the best competition, but should look better when he is surrounded by better teammates and able to play as a more tradition PG.

Lorenzo Brown

Strengths: Brown possesses very good height and vision for a point guard. He is able to break down defenses and is crafty with his passing and ball handling. He has made the transition from a high school combo guard to a success college point guard while racking up plenty of assists. Brown also does a very good job when he is able to push the ball in transition and has good foot work en route to the rim. He is able to finish in a variety of ways. He's a fluid athlete who uses his long strides to his advantage. He can create his own shots pretty easily thanks to his size, ball handling, and creativity.

Weaknesses: Brown is still learning the nuances of being a point guard and was the leader of a very inconsistent and underperforming North Carolina State team. He is also a poor shooter who saw his shooting numbers drop to record lows this season. Brown also can be too crafty for his own good - often making shots at the rim tougher than they should be and trying to get into seams where he can't fit through. He doesn't do a good job drawing fouls despite his slashing ability, which is a result of him trying to avoid contact. He lacks the strength to finish with contact. He is also old for his class and will be 23 by the time the 2013-14 NBA season kicks off.

Honorable Mention: 

Matthew Dellavedova

Dellavedova is an outstanding shooter and combines that with great size and strength. He has proven he can run a team both in college and at the Olympic level. His experience shows on the court and he passes over the defense very well. Dellevadova knows how to use the pick and roll to his advantage, although he rarely gets to the rim. He's an underrated prospect who gets dismissed because he isn't a very good athlete.

Conclusion:

I believe that Pierre Jackson is the most NBA ready point guard of this group to fill a role. He fits perfectly into the Nate Robinson/Isaiah Thomas role. However, I don't see him ever being a consistent starter which is why I'd consider taking a few other guys over him.

Right now Nate Wolters, Erick Green, Ray McCallum, and Shane Larkin each have a better chance than Jackson of developing into a starter. Each of them also have question marks that could have them glued to the bench or out of the league in a few years. But this is a very solid group and I believe at least one will turn into a NBA starting point guard. Green is the best shooter of the bunch and also looks to be the best defender. He is also able to score at all three levels, has high character, and NBA level quickness/explosiveness which is why I currently have him ranked higher than anyone else on this list.

But McCallum and Wolters are both intriguing guys who could end up being better once they are surrounded by better teammates. They both have very good point guard skills, but were asked to be more of scorers for their teams. While they aren't typical "upside" guys, they could surprise people who aren't familiar with them.

Larkin doesn't have the size of the other three nor does he have the experience. His transition to the NBA looks to be a little rougher which is why I think he shouldn't get selected until Round 2. His upside is also kind of a mystery. The other guys have more defined roles as true point guards and are more ready to contribute which is why I believe they should get some consideration as possible late first round picks.

Finally, we have Isaiah Canaan, Phil Pressey, Myck Kabongo, and Lorenzo Brown. For Kabongo, I see too big of a question mark to invest a first round pick on. He won't be ready to contribute for a few years and will need to grind in the D-League to ever be successful. An unguaranteed contract has his name written all over it.

Canaan doesn't have the point guard skills to ever start in the NBA and if you want a scorer off the bench, Pierre Jackson is a better bet. Canaan to me seems like a guy who will likely be out of the league in a few years. 

Pressey and Brown quite frankly, haven't impressed me. Pressey is a pass first point guard who makes questionable decisions. He can't shoot, defend, or finish inside. Brown failed to lead his college team and is old by NBA draft standards. He has a lot of holes in his game for a 22 year old and the likelihood of him fixing those holes aren't great, especially considering he took a step back this season. 

Scouting Report: Erick Green

Its rare for a player in a big time conference to lead the nation in scoring and it is even more rare for someone to do that and get as little publicity as Virginia Tech's Erick Green has gotten. Green is the first player from a major conference to lead the NCAA in scoring since Glenn Robinson did it in 1994 and the only other player in ACC history to do it was South Carolina's Grady Wallace back in 1957.

Green is used to traveling under the radar. Virginia Tech was the only ACC school that was willing to allow him to realize his dream of playing ACC basketball. Green spent his senior season in high school playing at Paul VI, a basketball power in the DMV area, and showed off the same impressive scoring ability that he has continued to do in college.

Green was a combo guard coming out of high school, and still is to this point, but that doesn't mean he is incapable of running the point position or making plays. Green is actually a very smart and unselfish decision maker and is certainly accustomed to having the ball in his hand.

After two seasons watching and learning from Malcolm Delaney at Virginia Tech, Erick Green took over the scoring load during his junior season. The Hokies had made the NIT the previous two years, but since Green has been the leader they've been relegated to the bottom of the ACC Standings.

While his lack of winning ways beg questions that need answering, it is important to understand what Virginia Tech lost after his sophomore season and the type of talent he is currently surrounded with. Green is the sole playmaker on the team and is asked to do virtually everything - including be their defensive stopper at times. While winning would have helped Green's talent get recognized more, it is very unfair to write him off as a prospect because he hasn't won in Blacksburg. Virginia Tech has been without a threat in the post or a secondary ball handler in each of the past two season.

It is a major bonus to his character that he hung around in Blacksburg and never showed any frustration. After Seth Greenburg left and Dorian Finney-Smith - their hope for the future - transferred, it was apparent that Green's senior year may be a long one and a rebuilding season for the program. Yet he didn't ever entertain leaving and came into this season as one of the most improved players in the country. He was always a positive influence at Virginia Tech, loved by both fans and teammates alike. Even though he was clearly the most talented player on his team, he never acted like he was above everyone else. NBA teams can breath easy knowing the have a good character guy on their hands if they decide to draft him.

Erick Green stands at about 6-3 with long, lanky arms (6'6.5'') and a slender frame. He is deceptively quick and extremely fast in the open court. Green does a ton of damage in transition, often refusing to be stopped until a defender is forced to foul him. Green is also an excellent shooter of the dribble, arguably the most prolific in the country, and has no problem getting shots off. His scoring exploits come from a combination of transition opportunities, off the dribble mid-range jumpers, and pick and roll plays. 

Green loves to use the pick and roll and head to his left, although he tends to finish with his right hand. He is very deceptive and crafty with the ball and handles the basketball like it is on a string. He can toy with defenders and is the cause of plenty of sore ankles. Green combines his crossover move with subtle head fakes, shiftiness, and hesitations to keep the defense completely off balance. He is able to create space in the mid-range at will and has hit these tough jumpers at over a 40% rate the past two years - most of the created all by himself off the bounce. Although Green creates space for his shots with his dribble, he also has a natural fade on his jumper and gets good separation that way. In terms of shooting closely contested twos, only Isaiah Canaan and Deshaun Thomas can call themselves his peer.

At the NBA level, scorers are usually asked to do more than hit contested two point shots though. No matter how good you are at making them, contested twos are something a lot of GMs and coaches have looked to get away from as the statistical evolution continues. It certainly doesn't render Green's skills useless, but he will need to be able to bring more to a team than just his mid-range game.

The main variable in whether Erick Green will be a successful NBA player is his frame. Right now, he is very skinny and has trouble getting all the way to the rim and finishing. Green does a great job of being creative and has mastered the appropriate footwork en route to the rim (as well as a nice floater), but his strength and average at best leaping is tough to compensate for. Green won't near as many transition opportunities in the NBA and will need to be able to get tough points inside in a halfcourt offense.

Green shares some similarities to the Pacer's George Hill who was also an excellent scorer in college as a combo guard. Hill has made the successful transition to point guard and I believe Green shares the same qualities as a basketball player. Green is smart enough to run an offense and has no trouble being unselfish. He has been a great leader during his stay at Virginia Tech while continuing to compete all the way until the end of his senior season. But again, the difference between Green and Hill comes down to their physical profile. Hill has put on weight since coming into the league, but he had the profile of a stronger guard coming out of college - complete with wide shoulders. Green's shoulders on the other hand, don't suggest much room for growth.

As a three point shooter, Green has hit shots at around a 38% clip in his final two years on campus - showing much improvement from his sub-30% figures his first two seasons. Green has certainly put in the work to improve his shot and has increased his range from 18 feet to beyond the college 3. Green's stroke however, is much more conducive to being a good mid-range/off the dribble shooter than it is for being a great NBA 3-pt shooter. For one, Green puts a lot of effort into his shot and it looks like stepping back a few more feet for NBA 3s will be a bit of an adjustment for him. Green also uses a lot of his legs in a swinging motion and fades on his shots - great for mid-range shots as I said - but his release is a little lengthy for a spot up shooter. I think Green will be a solid 3-pt shooter in the league, but I don't think that it will be his ticket for playing time.

As for his defense, Green has been very impressive with both his ability and effort on that end of the court. Considering his workload he handles on offense, it would be almost expected that he takes breathers on defense but it seems he takes great pride in both sides of the ball. Green has the length and lateral quickness to bother players and is disruptive in the passing lanes. He has great anticipation skills and rarely makes any mental errors. Some will look at him and project him as a versatile defender who can cover both guard spots while there will be others who will question his quickness to cover PGs and his strength in covering SGs. His defense may, once again, come down to how much strength he is able to put on. Regardless, I don't think Green will be a reliability on defense simply because of his length, effort, and basketball IQ.

Moving forward, a lot of Green's success will depend on his frame's development., but I like him as a prospect. He is certainly underrated and is one of the better senior guard prospects in the country. He could sneak up into the late first/early second round territory after teams are down evaluating the film and discover he may be the best immediate option if they need a scoring guard. As of now, I believe he is clearly the best senior PG ahead of Nate Wolters, Isaiah Canaan, Matthew Dellavedova, and Pierre Jackson and possesses the most upside as well. He shouldn't have a problem playing the NBA's version of PG as long as he has a solid ball handler beside him.

Isaiah Canaan's 18 Points vs Arkansas St (Video)

Matthew Dellavedova and the St. Mary's Offense

When talking about St. Mary's you have to start with Matthew Dellavedova and when you speak of Dellavedova, you have to talk about St. Mary's offense. Dellavedova's game revolves around the pick and roll and St. Mary's revolves around their senior point guard so naturally, the Gaels start off the majority of each offensive possession with their star getting a high screen at the top of the arc.

Dellavedova is the catalysts of the St. Mary's offense, even when he isnt putting up huge numbers, the team is always relying on him for their open looks. It all starts with him in the pick and roll where he looks to distribute first and foremost.

Dellavedova is a good passer and has nice size for a point guard, allowing him to see the whole court when working at the top of the arc. He stays under control attacking the pick and roll, rarely driving into the lane - instead attacking JUST far enough to draw the second defender.

This is where the offense starts for St. Mary's - a team with only one shot creator - Dellavedova. Dellavedova's first pass to the open man is the start of getting the opposition of balance. They can get a shot early a lot of times off his pass, but the Gaels are more patience than that. They are a team of ball movers, with no ball stoppers to be found. Dellavedova's first move to draw the defense gets them off balance and the rest of his teammates build off his momentum by keeping the other team scurrying to open men by continuing to move the ball. They take after their

When things are going good, its a simple matter of "Where's Waldo" - Brad Waldow that is, who manages to benefit from the ball movement with surprisingly open looks in the lane.

Dellavedova controls the pace of the game and also controls himself.

The offense is far from spectacular but is some kind of efficient machine. Dellavedova is able to create things out of this offense without forcing bad passes or overdribbling and he relieves his teammates from having to do that too. That is why St. Mary's rarely turns the ball over and has been that way since Dellavedova has been in charge.

Its really a recipe for winning a lot in the regular season. And it doesn't help that the one shot creator is a legitimate contender to post 50/40/90 shooting numbers. Yea, I suppose it would be good to mention his deadly shooting at this point.

Dellavedova is the magician of all of this though - he's not just a system player. He has a lot of saavy to his game and is creative in delivering passes to his teammates. He is one of the best jump passers in the nation. He has a good mid-range game, sporting a quick floater that looks more like a flick shot. He's done a ton of work to his body over the years. This season he came in looking like a workout warrior, sporting a new, ripped physique.

And his body isn't for show. He has used his new found strength to show off an advanced post game. He's been a great scorer from there, but ironically enough, its passing out of doubles teams from the post that he's struggled with.

For Dellavedova his main weakness on the offensive end is his ability to get to the lane for easy buckets. And it shows in his overall field goal percentage. He can go stretches of games without getting a lay-up and did so against Pacific and Georgia Tech to name two recent games.

Overall, Dellavedova is a great college player and has an outside shot at the NBA. Ultimately, I'd expect to see him find his way back to Australia, although his game would fit the Europe well too. 

Appling, Johnson Handed Their First Major Test

As I was profiling point guards this summer, Appling and Johnson were two guys that were tough to get a read on. Appling was technically the point guard for MSU's team last year, but heeded playmaking duties to senior Draymond Green who is now on the Warriors. Elijah Johnson also took a back seat to a current NBA player, the Nets' Tyshawn Taylor, and Johnson was forced to play mostly shooting guard up until this season.

This was the year for both of them to step up and take the keys to their respective offenses. Neither had shown much playmaking ability up until this point and I wondered just how much they had in them. For the first half of this game, the question went unanswered. Appling was quiet while Johnson showed physical dominance and scored, although he failed to get into the lane. This was much like last year's Johnson who settled in as a spot up shooter and a havoc in transition. Johnson was looking like the better player if only for his greater physical gifts, while Appling looked rather pedestrian.

When the second half rolled along though, Appling was in the drivers seat. He went coast to coast on a lay-up that seemed to fire him and and after that him and backcourt mate Gary Harris went on a run where the scored 14 of their teams 16 points. Appling followed that lay-up with another one which he beat Withey and Johnson off a pick and roll. He also connected on a few rainbow threes, showing much better arc on his shots than his linedrive shot he featured last season. Appling wanted the ball at the end of the game and was taking over and hit a particularly clutch three in which he displayed an ankle breaking crossover move. Up by one with a minute left, Appling pulled up for a mid-range jumper where it seemed he was fouled by Johnson, but no call was made. Next possession, he got a one on one matchup with Withey where he showed a saavy hesitation move before weaseling his way between defenders to get the layup off. Picture perfect.

Michigan State got the win 67-64 and Appling had 19 while only missing three shots. His nemesis Johnson had 16 points while shooting a much worse 6-15 from the field. He struggled making plays much of the game and had 2 assists compared to 4 turnovers. Johnson doesn't capitalize on his physical tools as much as he should. He picks up his dribble too much at the first sign of defensive pressure and is always looking to pass before he has even created any kind of open look for a teammate. With the game ending though, Johnson was thrusted into the position of go-to-guy and he actually did get into the lane to draw a foul and sink the free throws. The next possession he attacked the rim against and nearly hit a floater. Those might have been his only two halfcourt drives all game.

I say he needs to be more aggressive, but a better alternative may be allocating the ball more to redshirt freshman Ben McLemore. McLemore had more assists than Johnson and just two less points even though he took 8 less shots. He didn't do much ball handling, but that should slowly change to the point where McLemore and Johnson are interchangeable. McLemore was the best pro prospect on the floor.

Nate Wolters Drops 30 Points in Opener

Wolters spent some of his summer getting a chance to travel and play in all-star camps against some of the best college basketball players. For a Minnesota kid playing at South Dakota State, that was an eye opening experience and a confidence booster. It made his dream seem much closer to a reality. Playing in a conference that rarely produces NBA stars, it may seem as if scouts aren't watching, but they certainly are watching the senior point guard very intently.

Wolters may have heard some of the scrutiny. After shooting 24% from 3-pt range last season, people assumed he couldn't shoot. This was despite Wolters shooting above 40% the season before. What caused the drop? I believe the drop could partially be explained by the mentality Wolters had last season. Wolters looked to drive first and only settled for long jumpshots at the end of the shotclock - resulting in lower percentage shots. Of course, Wolters himself wasn't going to settle for this explanation as he hit the gym all summer searching for his stroke back.

As the roommate of the team's student manager, Wolters had a personal rebounder all summer and took advantage of it. He would be shooting the lights out all night (literally, the coaches had to come by to tell him the gym was closed) and ended up making a small tweak in his shooting mechanics by making sure his left thumb was off the ball in order to improve spin.

Well, in the first game of the season it looks like something worked. Wolters was aggressive early on, not just looking to attack the hoop, but also looking to set up his jump shot. He looked very confident shooting it and finished the night 5-7 from deep and added another long 2.

Wolters is able to hit jumpshots both off the dribble and spotting up and looks very much like a pure shooter. He has great form and I fully expect him to go back to shooting around 40% from deep this season.

Below are highlights from the game:

The Correlation Between 2-pt% and Assist to Turnover Ratio

As I have broken down numerous college point guards this year, the same strengths and weaknesses keep coming up. One of the big things is how a guy runs the pick and roll offense. You have two ends of the spectrum here - guys who change speeds and play under control and guys who go full speed and rely on their athleticism. All of the guys are able to score in the mid-range area and pass the ball to open teammates. There isn't a guy difference there. The biggest difference comes from being able to put yourself in situations to get good shots, to get teammates open, and make smart decisions. The pick and roll game exemplifies the point guard's ability because it puts him in a situation where he can shoot, pass, drive, and also work an in-between game. You literally have countless options out of the pick and roll and its up to the offense player to be able to take advantage of them.

The problem with some guys is they don't know how to play in these sets. When they have an on ball screen, they feel the need to quickly accelerate around the corner and try to force their way into the lane. Trying to get around defenders with pure speed puts them in bad situations where they are often out of control and are forced to throw up an off-balanced shot or unpremeditated pass. I study the games of point guards who shot the ball exceptionally well from 3-pt range and had great athleticism inside, yet found that they had terrible efficiency inside the arc. Why? It all comes down to changing speeds.

If you watch Phil Pressey of Missouri and compare him to an average college point guard, you can really see a difference. Pressey understands the conceptions I am talking about. He uses hesitations, changes in direction, changes in speed, and other moves to keep the defense honest. When he gets a screen, he can dance around it, teasing the defense with his 3-pt ability while still being in attack mode. He doesn't feel the need to force things. Pressey can slip in between the two pick and roll defenders or he can slowly attack the defense while remaining under control. When Pressey gets inside the arc, it doesn't mean a shot or a pass is coming within seconds. That is because he enters the lane under complete control and with numerous options in mind. Instead of barreling into the lane and have to make quick decisions, Pressey is able to toy with the defense while sizing them up. Being able to take his time, he can make much more efficient passes to his teammates, while also getting them more open since he holds onto the ball longer. He also is able to get much more efficient shots himself since he isn't going in at full speed. Some guys have the size that they could keep bad habits and just run into the lane and fire up floaters, but Pressey has learned from an early age that he must work to find good shots.

What am I getting at?

Well first, the pick and roll is obviously incredibly important and becomes an even bigger factor in the NBA. In the NBA, you absolutely have to know how to change speeds because every player is an excellent athlete. The guys in college who rely on athleticism are going to have big adjustments to make.

So the pick and roll is valuable and what makes you a good pick and roll player is the ability to change speeds. At least, it plays a big factor. And the pick and roll effects all parts of your game. It effects your passing and efficiency.

Look at the two top assists to turnover players from last year - Kendall Marshall and Scott Machado. It is no surprise that they were great passers and smart decision makers, but did you know they were also amongst the top players in 2-pt%?

Using DraftExpress's stat page, I took a look at the 16 point guards who made their top 100 draft prospect list from this past draft. Of those 16 guys, Machado, Marshall, and Dion Waiters were in the top 4 in both 2-pt% and assist to turnover ratio. Now Waiters is a great finisher so his 2-pt% is no surprise, but Machado and Marshall have always been regarded as average finishers at best.

It all comes down to the pick and roll game and changing speeds for them. Both of them play very under control and rarely have to put of forced shots. When they go into the lane, they have multiple options inside their head. It goes along with the idea of being a triple threat and a lot of guys don't present that ability off the dribble in the lane. So Marshall and Machado both are efficient inside scorers despite not being very explosive or even particularly good shooters.

It is no surprise they are also the two best passers. It is all about leaving their options open. 2-pt% and assists to turnover ratio go hand in hand for point guards.

There are a lot of variable that explains why the numbers don't always back this up, things like how Tyshawn Taylor is such a good 2-pt shooter while having a bad assist to turnover ratio. This can be explained by the athleticism and size thing. Even without great understanding of changing speeds, some ultra talented guys like Taylor can get by in the college game with elite size and athleticism. The opposite can be used to explain why my example, Phil Pressey, is only an average 2-pt shooter. He really isn't a very good finisher in traffic at all, but if he didn't understand how to get good looks and keep the defense on their heels, his 2-pt% would be at the bottom of the league.

Scouting Report: Phil Pressey

Height: 6'0''
Wingspan: 6'3''
Weight: 178lbs
Bday: 2/17/91
Team: Missouri
Class of 2014

A young Pressey rocking a different looking. Truly defining how to "get low"

Coming into his sophomore season at Missouri, Pressey had full control of the point guard position and his game in almost every statistical category. His shooting from all areas of the floor improved, his assists and rebounds went up, he cut down the turnovers and fouls, and nearly doubled his attempts at the free throw line. Most importantly, Pressey was the leader for one of the best teams in a country and a team that was known for unselfishness and excellent chemistry. Pressey had great teammates around him, but he embodied all positive characteristics and did a great job making plays for the other three guards on the court.

Let's ignore Pressey's size at first and examine his college game. Right now, he may be the most talented returning college basketball player and he's still only going to be a junior. It is high praise, but very much earned. Pressey played entire games last year where he was virtually perfect. He defended the entire court, made terrific passes, hit his jumpers, and controlled the tempo. Lots of times it seemed like he could do whatever he wanted out there.

His unselfish play and understanding of the pick and roll offense are two things that bode well for him when projecting his NBA future. Pressey always looks pass first. He can dominate a game without taking a shot and will if you let him. He takes advantage of Mizzou's uptempo offense for assists, but also know how to operate in the halfcourt. In the pick and roll offense, he is deadly. He is so small that he is able to split defenders and he changes speeds perfectly. He can move around into the lane at half speed, just because of the threat of his blow-by potential. He has a good feel for where defenders are playing him and uses his small frame as well as he can when he has a defender on his back after driving off a pick. When he is doing his damage in the lane, he is almost always under control. The only issue with Pressey in the pick and roll is his own ability to finish.

Pressey displaying a NBA "arm bar"

Pressey shot just under 43% from the floor last year, which was actually up from his freshman number of  38.7%. While Pressey has a smooth stroke in the mid-range area, his 2-pt percentage is hurt by his play amongst bigs. Pressey takes a lot of difficult shots inside thanks to his shortcomings in the height department. Instead of using a classic floater, Pressey ends up in tough spots where he is 10 feet away from the hoop and trying to push the ball to the rim with a defender on his inside. He is a crafty guy and a great athlete, but he isn't very explosive. Not in a Nate Robinson kind of way where you are going to see him dunking. He's more along the lines of a DJ Augustin type athlete. He's going to have to bulk up quite a bit so he can deal with contact and develop a more reliable floater. I know the floater should be no problem for a guy with his touch, he just needs to do a better job of positioning himself inside.

In transition, Pressey normally has no problem finishing. When he gets rolling to the basket, he is way too quick for defenders to be able to set their feet and draw a charge or block his shot without fouling. Most of his free throw attempts come off these situations. Pressey's passing is also a big factor here as he is one of the best at delivering good passes to his teammates on the run. Pressey is great in transition and has had plenty of practice in these situations at Missouri.

Shooting wise, I think he is better than the numbers say he was. He has deep range and is able to pull up from anywhere on the court. He can shoot off the dribble and create enough space to shoot the ball. He reminds me a bit of Isaiah Thomas from Washington with the way he can size up his defenders from the top of the key or shoot off the pick and roll. Pressey was shooting 28% from 3-pt range last year on February 15th, but finished the season on a 22-40 hot streak where he displayed complete confidence in his shot.

Another thing to note is Pressey's crossover which is absolutely ridiculous. Its a video game crossover that can take him 5 feet in any direction in a heartbeat. Overall, he does a great job changing directions and he completely dices up defenses. As I said before, Pressey looks unstoppable a lot of times in the college game. In terms of everything he can control, not much more can be asked of him.

Before we touch on his defense, we have to acknowledge his size now. Pressey was measured at 6 ft tall in shoes with just a 6'3'' wingspan at the 2012 Deron Williams Skills Camp. The year before, he was under 6 feet with just a 6'1 wingspan. The numbers can vary a bit. Either way he is really undersized, but a 6'1 wingspan is particularly troublesome. Trey Burke is around the same height as Pressey, but Burke has a better frame and a few extra inches on his wingspan. That is the reason why Burke is considered a better prospect.

Nobody can say Pressey doesn't lay it all on the line. There are countless hustle pics off Pressey on Google Images

In terms of lateral quickness, Pressey has it and he's very agile to boot. Defensively, he really turned it up at the end of the year and played good defense against the likes of Pierre Jackson, Myck Kabongo, and Tyshawn Taylor. He has great closing speed, defends out to halfcourt, and does a good job closing passing lanes and getting steals. Pressey isn't a gambler perse, but can bait the opposition into throwing passes. He does a great job chasing his man around screens and getting interceptions there. He can be bullied and shot over, but Pressey has plenty of heart and pride on defense. Too much to be a complete non-factor.

I doubted Isaiah Thomas last year who had similar measurables last year and he has since proven me wrong. I'm still not sure how good of a player Thomas really is as he put up those numbers of the Kings and I didn't get a chance to watch him much, but he definitely is an NBA player. And I can say with certainty that Pressey as a sophomore was a better played than Thomas was as a senior in college. Pressey has always been a natural point guard while Thomas was much more of a scoring guard until the second half of his senior year.

One thing Thomas did well that Pressey can mimic is the pick and roll game. Thomas had the deep jumper to keep defenses honest as well and similarly used screens to get into the lane. They both show a lot of heart, character, and love for the game. You can never count out players with the kind of work ethics they possess. One area where Thomas has the advantage is his build, where he is a bit stronger. Thomas was a better finisher at the rim because of that and slightly better explosiveness. Still, Thomas never ran the point like Pressey can.

Pressey is the kind of player a general manager or coach can fall in love with. A guy who can make a coach feel that despite his size, he can be their point guard and allow the coach to have complete faith in his decision making. He will have detractors that say he isn't worth even a late first round pick, but there will be a at least a few that will look for him in the first round. I'll admit, I could probably be swooned over by Pressey in interviews and group scrimmages. He's been said to be the best point guard at all the camps he's played in, but still doesn't get as much attention due to his size. With a potential player of the year campaign on the horizon, the topic of his size will continue to be the biggest component that needs to be figured out in his transition to the NBA. He has everything else working for him.

Scouting Report: Elijah Johnson

Height: 6'4''
Weight: 195lb
Bday: Unknown

Team: Kansas
Class of 2013

Ever since stepping Elijah Johnson stepped onto campus as a Jayhawk, he has shown tremendous patience. He has been forced to sit behind Tyshawn Taylor, who arrived on campus one year before who to claim the point guard spot, and play a more complimentary role off the ball. In return, scouts have been patience with Johnson's game. Entering his senior year, scouts still have hope that Johnson can prove he can run the point now that Tyshawn Taylor has moved on to the NBA.

Elijah Johnson hasn't been riding the bench all this time, though. No, he was the starting shooting guard last year on the team that lost to Kentucky in the championship. He played a key role in the tournament, averaging double figures in the scoring column each game and prompting Bill Self to call him "their best player the last two weeks" around the same time.

Self had been waiting for Johnson to exert himself all season. By exert, I am not talking about just shooting the ball more. Johnson took plenty of threes. But Johnson rarely looked to take the ball to the basket and be aggressive. If that trend continues with Taylor gone, you can say goodbye to Johnson's stock, but his rise in the NCAA tournament provides hope.

Last year, Johnson struggled to start the season. In the first 24 games, he shot 36-131 (27%) from the 3-pt line. Every player goes in slumps, but Johnson continued to settle for that jumpshot. 131 shots in 24 games equates to him taking over 5 three pointers a game! This was when he couldn't buy a basket. If there was any time that Johnson finally started taking advantage of his physical tools, it should have been then. His lack of consciousness when taking threes mixed with his lack of confidence driving to the hoop is a bad combination.

Johnson is a good jump shooter and his jumper did start falling. He is very comfortable spotting up and doesn't hesitate to simply catch and shoot. Kansas likes to center their offense away from the corners and Johnson has problem taking the 3 from the top of the perimeter. He has good range and solid form. The problem is the amount of threes he takes and the fact that he never tries to get a better shot. He took a ridiculous amount of 3-pt shots with 20+ seconds remaining on the shot clock last year. Self had to yank him out quite a few times due to this trend. The big key for Johnson's game is he needs to stop settling. He has great athleticism yet acts like an nonathletic, stationary shooter 95% of the time.

Johnson has always been intriguing because of his physical abilities. High school recruiters were having the same discussions about Johnson 4 years ago that we are having today. He never owned the point guard position there either. But his body and explosiveness are exactly what are desired in NBA point guards. Johnson is listed at 6'4'' and 195lbs. He has long arms and is capable of guarding both PGs and 2-guards. He has good strength and is a very explosive leaper around the basket. He also has an explosive, long first stride and is very fast in the open court. He just needs to put these tools together and show them off more often.

Johnson lacks savvy. He is a very easy player to figure out at this stage. He is primarily a three point shooter who rarely looks to drive. For his ability and role in the Jayhawks offense, averaging 1.4 free throws per 40 minutes (adjusted for team pace) is beyond terrible. One could get a free throw a game at the end of the game going to the line or get accidentally fouled off the ball. Or fouled in transition - its not hard. The fact is, Johnson never drives. The only time he is getting to the hoop is in a transition opportunity.

Part of the problem appears to be his poise and confidence with the ball in his hands. He is always looking to get rid of it like its a hot potato whether it is a quick jumper or pass. Because of this, Johnson is actually a great ball mover - one of those guys who passes it around the perimeter and makes the "extra pass" to find a man open for three. But that isn't a result of him creating anything. Just another instance of him acting like a non-athletic shooter.

When Johnson gets a pick and roll opportunity, nothing ever comes from it. Johnson looks to get rid of the ball as soon as the help defender comes out to hedge on the screen. He will either pick up his dribble by instinct or flip a quick pass to the nearest teammate. His lack of ability to do ANYTHING on the pick and roll is a bad indicator for his NBA future. It is not like he is just being unselfish, Johnson has clearly developed a habit where his first reaction at the sign of pressure is to pick up his dribble. That won't be easy to break. In a perfect world, Johnson's speed would be devastating to defenders, and he has shown that in a select instances. Combined with his jumper, he could be a dual threat in these situations. But I don't think Johnson is close to becoming consistent in this area.

The good thing about Johnson's passing is he is willing to make the easy pass. Like I said, he swings the ball to the open man and did a good job getting Thomas Robinson touches in the post. He was able to average 4.3 assist per 40 minutes mainly because of those situation. He also did a good job in transition, including a clutch full court pass at the end of a game to Tyshawn Taylor. When Elijah Johnson did get into the paint, he tends to look for a big man to lob it to. Every single year Johnson's assist numbers have slipped. That should change his senior year due to his new role, but he needs to really change the way he achieves his assists.

Overall, Johnson's offense is strictly east and west to use a football term. Everything goes around the perimeter and nothing towards the basket.  His handles aren't as bad as his number make it seem, his poise under pressure and aggression are bigger problems for him.

We will have a chance to see Johnson run point all year and he could completely damage his stock under the spotlight. Or his combination of speed, size, and shooting could get him into the first round. Or both. He is getting first round mentions already while I still believe he is a long shot. He has way too many holes in his game. Johnson's worst fear would be if Ben McLemore took over the point guard spot and subsequently ruins Elijah's dreams of a NBA career.

Right now, Johnson may project better as a shooting guard. He still wouldn't be NBA quality and doesn't have as high of a ceiling there (which is why nobody projects him to play the 2), but his ability to space the floor with both his jumper and understanding of spacing on the offensive end make him a decent off guard. 

In 2011, Tyshawn Taylor missed two big 12 games and Johnson started at point guard in his place. Johnson only had 4 assists in those 2 games while scoring 20 points. 18 of those points came from 3-pt shots. After the first game, Johnson saw his minutes reduced by Mario Little, a marginal player at best.

All this negative talk about Johnson and we haven't even gotten to his defense. Johnson actually has a solid reputation on defense and has great tools, but once again, he is unable to fully take advantage of them. By zeroing in on him completely, Johnson doesn't look like an elite defender at all. In fact, his off ball defense can be quite comical. He seems to space out for a second at a time and lose his man, resulting in him frantically searching for him. He reacts very slowly and thinks way too much on defense. He has a terrible understanding of angles and defensive positioning. For some reason Johnson shades the 3-pt line instead of the paint, making him easy to cut against or drive by. Because of this, the one thing he does well is take away 3s. That would be effective if he was playing against other Elijah Johnson clones. His man to man defense is better than his off ball defense but his lack of awareness still shines through. His lack of defensive IQ really puts a damper on what appears at first glance to be a high defensive ceiling.

Character wise, Johnson seems to be a good kid and interviews well. Johnson has always been described as someone who looks out for others and his patience playing behind Tyshawn Taylor is a testament to his character within itself. While his hometown is listed as Las Vegas, Johnson grew up in the rough neighborhoods of Gary, Indiana and still has a quiet toughness to him. He is a mature kid and has been coached by his father in his youth. His godfather is LaTroy Hawkins, longtime MLB reliever.  There are no questions with his energy or work ethic. He shows plenty of passion on the court.

This is a make or break year for Johnson. The excuse of him not showing his talents because of Tyshawn Taylor's presence no longer exist. Johnson knows this too. Kansas should be very good and he is going to be looked upon as their go-to scorer. After 3 years of mediocrity, Johnson still has every chance to prove himself. Him and his fans amongst NBA scouts have shown patience, now it is time for results.