Showing posts with label Shooting Guards. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Shooting Guards. Show all posts

Tuesday, May 28, 2013

Scouting Report: Allen Crabbe

Allen Crabbe always been a shooter dating back to his high school days. Throughout the years, Crabbe has slowly but surely became a more complete player to the point where he is now one of the most well-rounded offensive players in this years draft.

Crabbe showed his improved all-around offensive game more and more as the season went along. When Pac-12 defenses tried to chase him off the 3-pt line, he finally had an answer this season. He ended up shooting only 33.6% from deep in conference play but still scored over 17 points per game. Between being asked to play 35 minutes per game in conference play and all the attention he received, Crabbe may have not had his legs under him for his jumpers. That didn't stop him and his team from getting hot at the end of the season to advance to the NCAA tournament for the second straight year. He found other ways to score and get his teammates involved.

The Golden Bears took after their star player and won games based on their offensive play, not their defense. Even though Mike Montgomery was at the helm, he struggled to get his team to play effective defense and Cal ended up having to play a lot of zone. Getting Crabbe to buy in on the defensive end as always been a question mark and given that respected former NBA coach Mike Montgomery couldn't get him to buy in 100%, it still remains one of his biggest question marks.

Crabbe is certainly an offensive minded player and he sees his scoring being the biggest asset he can bring to a team. There are concerns with his mental toughness. He shows bad body language on the court at times, avoids physical play, and gets noticeably frustrated when things don't go his way. This was evident all season long - up until the last game of the season where Crabbe made some mental errors and proceeded to take it out on the referees. There is also the shoving incident that occurred when he and Coach Montgomery got into an argument on the sideline. Another concern may be the laidback vibe he gives off - the Cali vibe. Scouts will wonder just how much he is willing to compete.

These are the red flags with Crabbe. He may never reach his potential defensively and it will be interesting how he handles the inevitable struggles in the NBA.

However, there are plenty of things to like about Crabbe to get teams considering taking him as high as the late lottery.

His offensive game is excellent and he continues to show improvement each year. This shows that Crabbe is indeed willing to work and he does seem to have a chip on his shoulder to prove doubters wrong.

He started as just a shooter and that remains his biggest strength and what his game centers around. Even though he struggled to shoot the ball in conference play, his shooting at the next level is of little concern. He gets his feet set extremely quick, has unlimited range, and is able to get room for his shot. He's a dynamic shooter who can stay hot for an entire game.

With all the attention he has drawn for his shooting, Crabbe has been able to work on the rest of his game. Even though he slumped a bit shooting towards the end of the year, his confidence in the rest of his game seemed to be at an all time high. He was fine with teams playing him hard at the 3-pt line and took what they would give him. He didn't hesitate to drive the lane.

As a driver, Crabbe isn't a guy that will cross you up and drive past you all the way to the rim in an isolation situation. Much of his game revolves around screens and he uses them very well. He glides around screens with long strides and moves without the ball nonstop. At Cal, they ran a lot of down screens for him which he used effectively to score in the mid-range area. He curled around those screens near the baseline heading towards the foul line and showed off great touch with his floater.

He is very sleek and quick in these situations and the floater is deadly. He can hit the floater with either hand and off one or two feet. He can also stop and pop for a short mid-range jumper. He had a large amount of his offensive come in this area - 43% according to hoop-math.com - and hit a very good 45% of his shots in this area. His mid-range game is something to take note of.

Back to Crabbe as a driver. As I said, he's not the kind of guy who will break you down off the dribble. He does, however, use hesitations and ball fakes well. He also has a quick, long first step and is able to rip through the defender. More often though, Crabbe has a running start coming off an off ball screen when he receives the ball and can turn the corner into the lane that way.

Crabbe prefers to avoid physical contact inside and thats why he often passes the ball or chooses to attempt a floater in the lane. He also isn't super explosive off of one foot or strong with the ball at the rim. He needs to do a better job at staying more compact if he wants to step up his game at the rim in the NBA.

Due to his lack of finishing at the rim though, Crabbe has become an excellent passer. Instead of trying to finish for himself, he does a great job at finding teammates with wrap around passes around the rim or with other types of passes. He's a creative passer and gets a lot of zip on the ball. He seems the court well and does a nice job keeping his head up.

He's especially dangerous coming off of screens because he can handle the ball well with either hand. He isn't ultra crafty with the ball but with his first step and mid-range game, he generally just needs two dribbles to get to his spot on the floor. He is also able to handle it in the open court with either hand and does a nice job pushing the ball after a rebound. He has great top end speed and loves to get out and run.

Crabbe started the break a good amount at Cal because he was a great rebounder for a shooting guard. Crabbe is a lot better jumping off of two feet than one and could be one of the best rebounding 2 guards in the league. He would have gotten even more boards at Cal if he was willing to battle inside and get physical, but he generally relied on strictly his athleticism on the glass - which is very impressive.

Crabbe also has a great frame with wide shoulders that he has slowly began to fill out. You can notice the changes in his body from the beginning of the year up until he was last seen at the Chicago combine. He has the kind of frame that can put on weight, although its very questionable if he will ever use his frame the way he should. Crabbe also has outstanding length with a wingspan at 6'11.5. Those arms should allow him to continue to have a very effective floater game in the NBA and also be a very good defender if he ever chose to dial it in.

Even though I'm not counting on him to ever reach his defensive potential, I still see Crabbe as arguably the best shooting guard prospect after Victor Oladipo and Ben McLemore. The race is between him and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and while Caldwell-Pope may have more potential, Crabbe is the better player right now. Both are two of the most talented scorers in the draft, but Crabbe is so much better when it comes to moving without the basketball. Crabbe also has a better overall skillset.

Still, the questions remain about his mental game and could prevent him from being the third shooting guard off the board. He reminds me some of Klay Thompson, who also had red flags because of his laidback attitude and a marijuana charge. They both are great shooters with a very good feel for the game who improved their ball skills before entering the draft. Klay might have the edge as a shooter and in terms of creating his own shot, but Crabbe appears to have the edge in terms of his physical profile. I'd also argue that Crabbe is a better ball handler than Klay when he left Washington State.

It will be interesting to see where Allen Crabbe ends up on draft night because he is one of those guys who could end up sneaking into the lottery or find himself slipping near the second round. In this draft, I think it will be a mistake to let him slip past 20. 

Monday, February 11, 2013

Which Shooting Guard Will Rise to the Top of The Pack?

There are quite a few upperclassmen shooting guards in this years draft class, mostly juniors, who could look to declare for the draft. The deciding factor may be whether they get a first round guarantee or not and as of now - it seems they all have some hope to cling onto. There is room for at least another shooting guard prospect to rise up the board and into the mid to late first round area. Right now, Jamaal Franklin appears to be the favorite but these 5 other players could all very likely declare for the draft and challenge for supremacy.

(Numbers in parenthesis are where each player is ranked on DraftExpress.com and Chad Ford's Big Board)

JR Tim Hardaway Jr (DX: 62, CF: 59)

What He Does Best?

Among the group, Hardaway Jr is the best at putting the ball on the floor and making plays in the paint. He is best with the ball in his hands and the freedom to create. Hardaway Jr is very creative getting his shots off inside the arc, can hang in the air, and has nice touch at the rim. His crossover is not as good as his dad's, but is another strength of his game, and he is able to get shots off after creating space with the move. Playing for one of the best teams in the country won't hurt his stock.

What He Needs to Improve?

Hardaway Jr is one of the more ball dominant players of this group and makes his biggest impact with the ball in his hands. He goes one on one too often, dribbles the ball way too much, and has been an inconsistent spot up shooter. And for all his dribbling, an average of only 4 free throws per 40 minutes and the lowest assist percentage in this group, doesn't look good. Up until this year, he looked like a streaky spot up shooter at best, but he is shooting over 40% from 3 this year. His 73% FT shooting suggest that this may be a fluke and there is little doubt that he is one of the worst spot up shooters in this group. Hardaway Jr also needs to make a bigger impact off the ball and on the defensive end.

JR Allen Crabbe (DX:48, CF:38)

What He Does Best?

Crabbe does an excellent job moving without the ball, seemingly gliding to his spots and working hard throughout the entire game. He has a knack for getting open even though Cal's offense revolves around him and Justin Cobbs as much as any offense revolves around two players. Crabbe does most of his work before he gets the ball in his hands and doesn't just move around screens to set up outside shots - he is equally as good finding seams in the painted area for easy floaters. Because of this, Crabbe has improved his 2-pt% this year and is one of the most efficient scorers of this group despite a "down year" shooting the ball. In the past two years, he has shot just at 40% from deep and over 80% at the line. He's proven himself as a consistent and pure shooter throughout his 3 years in Berkeley.

What He Needs To Improve?

As mentioned, Crabbe does much of his work before he gets the ball so he doesn't flash the same kind of ability to create shots that a guy like Tim Hardaway Jr does. But that isn't necessarily a bad thing since he moves so well without the ball and the NBA needs more guys like that. Crabbe also isn't very explosive getting to the rim and struggles to get all the way to the cup - although he shoots 76% at the rim - better than any other wing in this study. Crabbe is a solid defender and rebounds well, but doesn't project as anything special on defense.

JR CJ Wilcox (DX: 49, CF: 41)

What He Does Best?

Wilcox has been a shooter from the moment he stepped on campus and is the only guy in this group who has shot over 40% from 3 in each of his years in college. Wilcox started off as a spot up shooter - playing off the likes of Terrence Ross, Tony Wroten, and Isaiah Thomas - so he is very use to the role that will be asked of him in the NBA. He also has great length for a wing (with a 6-8 wingspan) and is the best shotblocker among these 6 prospects.  Through hardwork, Wilcox has transformed his game into more than just a shooter and is now able to function as the focal point of the Huskies offense - taking 29.5% of their shots while on the floor.

What He Needs to Improve?

Only Reggie Bullock gets to the line less among this group. While he has stepped up his overall offensive game, Wilcox still projects as just a jump shooter at the next level. He gets to the rim less than any other player looked at, although his length allows him to finish well in limited opportunities. And in terms of operating off the basketball, he is nowhere near the level that Allen Crabbe is at. Wilcox usually coasts around screens with zero urgency to get open and has been held to under 15 points in each of his last 5 games. Currently his team  has lost 6 of their last 7 and he has failed to step up and stop the skid. A large part of this may be attributed to a stress fracture he suffered in early January. but it doesn't look like Wilcox will have another chance this year to show what he can do when completely healthy.

JR Jamaal Franklin (DX: 23, CF: 19)

What He Does Best?

The simple answer is rebounding. Franklin is by far the best rebounder of the group and has grown his craft by acting as San Diego State's power forward much of the time on defense. Franklin as a football background and it is evident in his toughness, competitiveness, and instincts. He is an explosive leaper and is the best shotblocker listed besides CJ Wilcox. Franklin treats defense as very important and takes on the challenge of covering the oppositions best player. On the offense end, Franklin is aggressive and thrives in transition. He is a explosive finisher and a good playmaker for his teammates. He does the best job at drawing fouls out of this group - showing an array of old man moves to get his defender off balance. Franklin's work ethic and coachability has often been praised by the coaching staff.

What He Needs to Improve?

Franklin is the least efficient player in this overview and the most turnover prove. He is an outlier in terms of shooting - as he shoots just 26% from behind the arc this season. Franklin's offense is more predicated around heart, assertiveness, and athleticism than any particular skills. He has a good crossover to get by defenders, but his overall handle is sloppy and out of control in the paint. His shooting is incredibly streaky. Franklin is a good passer, but has a poor A/TO ratio because he tries to do too much on the offensive side of things. He also has some character red flags in the past and needs to continue to keep his aggression channeled towards basketball.

JR Reggie Bullock (DX: 50, CF: 43)

What He Does Best?

Bullock has improved immensely as a shooter to become the most efficient scorer and highest percentage shooter amongst the group. He is shooting over 43% from the arc and nearly 90% from the free throw line. Bullock is the ultimate role player and gets his team extra possessions through his work on the offensive glass and diving for loose balls. He is the best offensive rebounder of the group by a fair margin. Bullock also is very intense of the defense end and has the potential to be a very good defender in the NBA with the ability to cover both wing positions. His assist to turnover ratio is double of any other player compared here.

What He Needs to Improve?

Part of the reason why Bullock has such a good assist to turnover ratio is he doesn't attempt to make many plays off the bounce. His scoring efforts come off offensive rebounds, transition opportunities, and jumpers. That is what makes him an ultimate glue guy, but at the same time very much limits him. This year, North Carolina has needed a guy to handle to scoring load and Bullock has been unable to deliver anything different than in prior years. He is what he is as an offensive player. Bullock's possession % ranks him last among the 6 player field. His free throw rate also puts him at the bottom of the list.

SO Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (DX: 38, CF: 36)

What He Does Best?

At only 20 years old, Caldwell-Pope is easily the youngest player that we are going to look at. His team has struggled mightily during his stay, although they've been starting to play better as the young guys mature. Caldwell-Pope is actually one of the more experienced guys on the team and has had a lot of pressure as basically their only scoring option. He is a dead-eye shooter who is always ready to get his shot off and has athleticism to go along with it. Caldwell-Pope has a good first step and can pull up off a couple of dribbles going in either direction. He is very good with this type of mid-range jumper and is a good finisher at the rim. In fact, his 2-pt% is the highest amongst all 6 players we looked at. It is fairly safe to say that Kentavious is the most talented offensive player in this group. On the defensive end, Caldwell-Pope generally shows a lot of energy in defending and going after rebounds.

What He Needs to Improve?

For Caldwell-Pope, a lot of it is between the ears. He makes a lot of "freshman mistakes" still and puts up contested jumpers early in the shot clock. On his current team, you can live with that though. More concerning is his defense. Not his effort, but his understanding of positions and help defense. Caldwell-Pope is the guy who face guards you in middle school and annoys you to know end. He can shut you out of the game, but be completely oblivious to what is going on around him. Because of his style, he is prone to losing his man on cuts to the rim and he gets ran through a lot of screens. He has trouble understanding the relation between the ball and his man - something that comes naturally to most players - but for him you can tell it is something that he is constantly trying to figure out where he should be.

Offensively, he has a poor handle and struggles to make moves with a defender nearby. He relies purely on his quick first step. He isn't able to attack pick and roll - resulting in many teams blitzing him. He gets himself stuck in double teams and isn't a very good passer. He is able to get to the rim on straight line drives due to his explosiveness, but lacks any creativity to his game. He also needs to learn how to play off the ball to take advantage of his gifts.

SR Michael Snaer (DX: 53, CF: 100)

What He Does Best?

Snaer came out of high school as an All-American and has now spent four years learning defense from Leonard Hamilton. Needless to say, Snaer is a great defender who has the physical attributes along with the proper schooling to be ready to contribute ready away at the next level. He is a leader on the floor and understands the game at an advanced level. Along with the defensive expectations, Snaer has also had a lot of responsibility on the offense end of the table, especially with Ian Miller battling injuries all season long. Still, Snaer is shooting nearly 40% from 3 and over 80% from the line - something he has done each of the past two season. Snaer also racks up more assists than anyone not named Jamaal Franklin as he is often asked to be the primary playmaker as well as scorer for his team. Snaer has been able to show an all-around offensive game. He's shown the shooting, playmaking, ball handling, and leadership that make him arguably the most well rounded player we've looked at. On top of that, Snaer may be the most clutch performer in college basketball with 3 buzzer beaters this season alone to his credit.

What He Needs to Improve?

Snaer's team is in a down year with quite a few key players leaving and his numbers have dipped quite a bit as well. He trails only Jamaal Franklin when it comes to TS% while also turning it over as much as any other player besides Franklin. The difference between him and Franklin's FG% is Snaer actually can shoot from deep - where he is struggling, oddly enough, is from the mid-range area. According to hoop-math.com, he has connected on just 22% of all 2-pt jumpers. Another thing to look at though, is just 8% of the jumpers have been assisted which speaks to how much he is expected to have the ball in his hands and make plays for himself. His 2-pt % on jumper is the worst it has been in his career. Leonard Hamilton is an expert on defense, but his offense has always lagged behind and you can chalk up many of Snaer's inefficiencies to lack of offensive structure. His high turnovers also are a result on him having to do entirely too much. Snaer isn't a guy you'd generally associate as an inefficient player - he is very smooth, smart, and makes good decision with the ball - but he's been asked to do way too much this year and point guard is not his natural position.

Conclusion:

If you were to ask me who'd I'd pick first out of this group, it would be either Michael Snaer or Allen Crabbe. Right now, it seems that Jamaal Franklin is currently the favorite to be selected in that mid-first round area all these players are vying for, but I don't see much upside to his game. Snaer is a better defender, shooter, ball handler, and has a better background with no character issues. Franklin is limited by his decision making, shooting, and ball handling on offense and while his athletic highlights give the notion that he has a high upside, it is tough to overcome his shortcomings.

In looking for a shooter, Crabbe presents the most intriguing combination of saavy without the ball to go along with his ability to shoot. He isn't the defender than Reggie Bullock is, but has much more potential as a scorer.

Tim Hardaway Jr does have some upside and it is hard to count him out, but Im not sure how his style will translate to wins. His shooting still seems like somewhat of a fluke and his defense doesn't effect games. He is a guy who needs the ball in his hands and while he can put up points in the NBA, will he contribute to winning?

As for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and CJ Wilcox, Caldwell-Pope still has a long way to go in terms of learning the game. As of now, his natural feel for the game isn't very promising when looking at his future. Returning to Georgia for another season will be his best bet unless he gets a first round promise. CJ Wilcox on the otherhand, is what he is at this point and doesn't present much intrigue. He can make it in the NBA as a shooter, but there are plenty of guys out there like him that all need to find the right opportunity to succeed.

My Rankings:

1. Allen Crabbe
2. Michael Snaer
3. Reggie Bullock
4. Jamaal Franklin
5. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
6. CJ Wilcox

Out of the Mix:

Early in the season, it looked like Sean Kilpatrick had a horse in this race but he's fallen off as the season goes on. His power dribbling style doesn't translate well to the NBA and his shot hasn't been as automatic as it appeared before. He's a junior with athletic limitations.

Wednesday, November 21, 2012

Sean Kilpatrick's Draft Stock

Sean Kilpatrick has emerged from a off the bench scoring threat his freshman year to the best player on Cincinnati's top 25 team this season, this being his junior campaign. Turning 23 in January, Kilpatrick's time is running up and should at least test the draft waters this year. His upside is limited, but as a mature shooter, Kilpatrick could be the type of guy who can be drafted in the second round and contribute right away.

Kilpatrick's calling card is his ability to shoot. Last year he took 56% of his shots from deep. He has a quick release which allows him to get shots up with little space and always has his shoulders square to the hoop. He shows good balance and is able to pump fake to keep defenders honest and pull up in the mid-range area as well, where he is also very good.

While Kilpatrick is a shooter, I wouldn't classify him amongst the elite shooters in college basketball. He's more of a streaky shooter who will have some nights where he front rims everything. His free throw shooting testifies to this, as he is a career 71% shooter.

Kilpatrick does have a more rounded offense game than other shooters in this draft like CJ Wilcox, Caldwell-Pope, and Reggie Bullock. He's shooting slightly less threes this year and has made his offensive impact felt in other ways. Last night against Campbell, he only had 4 first half points but I was encouraged to see him still involved and creating for his teammates.

Kilpatrick has only a solid first step, not much of a left hand, and no real advanced ball moves but when he hits the lane, he shows good balance and keeps his head up to find teammates. He showed the ability to find teammates near the rim and also drive and kick last night. He also cut off the ball and used his solid frame to get looks inside.

Kilpatrick has trouble finishing though, as he is right hand dominant, and lacks great length and explosiveness. He has the body to absorb contact and it also is a reason he can drive the lane despite average skills, but he is still an average finisher at best.

I liked what I saw from Kilpatrick's overall offensive game last night, but it doesn't change much for him. He is still turning 23. He still is a streaky shooter. And he still isn't a very good ball handler or finisher. His confidence and ability to play under control will allow him to maximize his average gifts this season, but it doesn't make his ceiling for the NBA very high. Still, it is good to see a shooter that is not completely one dimensional. 

Friday, September 7, 2012

Scouting Report: Ricky Ledo

Height: 6'6''
Wingspan: 6'7''
Weight: 193lb
Bday: 9/10/1992
NBA Comparison: Rudy Fernandez

Team: Providence
Class of 2017 (This season will be a redshirt year)


With news that Ricky Ledo will be ineligible to play basketball for Providence this season, I decided it was time to look at Ledo's NBA prospects as he could end up declaring after the end of this season without any college game experience. His ban from playing this year wasn't much of a surprise and it seemed as though Coach Ed Cooley was just happy to hear he would be eligible to practice all year with the team. The ability to practice has convinced Ledo to stay at school for the time being, although with Ledo, you never know where he will end up. Ledo went to 4 different high schools in 5 years, raising red flags along the way. He could explore options in both the D-League and overseas if he is serious about entering the upcoming draft.

As a college basketball fan, it is a disappointment that Ledo won't be playing this season. Ledo is an exciting scoring guard who can put up points with ease. At 6'7'', Ledo has great size for the position and the offensive repertoire one romanticizes about upon hearing of a top notch shooting guard prospect. Ledo is a great shooter, showing deep range on his jumpers and plenty of range. He can get his shots off at anytime, thanks to a combination of his shooter's lean, craftiness, and fluidity with the ball.

Ledo also moves well without the basketball and his team made it a point to feature him on a lot of curls off the ball. He worked hard to get open and proved he can play without the ball. Some think Ledo is more of a combo guard or even a point guard down the line, but I see him strictly as a 2 guard who can handle it. His movement off the ball is a big reason why.

With the ball, Ledo is extremely creative. He doesn't possess a lethal first step but his craftiness is more than enough for him to drive by defenders with ease. He has a slew of advanced ball handling moves and changes directions and speeds well. He is a very smooth looking scorer and has incorporated the Euro-step into his game. Ledo also likes to use a spin move at the time of the catch to make up for his lack of super explosive first step and he also uses one closer to the hoop - sometimes adding one step too many.

Ledo wasn't asked to play point guard as much last season as in previous years, but he is capable of bringing the ball up. Still to me, he seemed like he could get rattled by the press and make some terrible passes and have trouble slowing up at the top of the key and initiating the halfcourt offense. Ledo appears much more comfortable when he can catch the ball in the halfcourt and have a chance to size up the defense before making a move. When he brings the ball up the court, Ledo doesn't have a chance to do that.

Settled into the halfcourt offense, Ledo is very much a triple threat. Although he can make some terrible passes, Ledo also flashes impressive vision on drives and sets up his teammates for easy buckets. He is fairly unselfish, despite having the skillset of a one on one player. At times, Ledo will overextend himself with too many dribbles and make plays harder than they should be. There is a concern with his efficiency at higher levels. It would have been nice to see how he would have shot in a college season. If I had to guess, I would imagine around a 42% field goal shooting to go along with 38% from 3 and 80% at the line would be realistic.

The thing about his efficiency is the kind of shots he takes. He is a high volume shooter who can get up shots from anywhere. When he you can shoot from anywhere, you tend to end up taking some bad shots. Ledo needs to be careful and make sure he doesn't end up taking a lot of low percentage long 2-pt shots. He also needs to finish better at the rim. As I said, Ledo does a great job penetrating the lane, but blows too many lay-ups. Lack of concentration could be one of the culprits, as he is creative around the rim and gets a lot of hangtime. Ledo isn't a top level explosive athlete around the rim, but he can be on the receiving end of impressive dunks. He also can finish with both hands. His struggle to finish may also have to involve him trying to be too "cute" at the rim instead of going for the easy finish.

Where Ledo has to make the most improvements is his defense. In some of the games I saw Ledo, he made zero effort in that end of the floor. Ledo would gamble for steals and never venture inside of the 3-pt arc, choosing to cherry pick for easy buckets instead. Ledo has been cited on multiple occasions for bad body language and his lack of effort on defense doesn't help. To his defense, Ledo's prep school team was on the right end of a lot of blowouts and defense wasn't always necessary. In closer games, Ledo would focus more on defense, but his lack of experience playing real defense shows. He can't stay in front of his defenders and has to rely on his ability to play passing lanes. Ledo also rarely plays a role on the glass, staying out of the lane for the most part. For Ledo to get minutes in the NBA, this will have to change.

Moving forward, Ledo still has a lot of questions to his game and without a season to answer them, he may end up actually playing a season for Providence. The offensive upside Ledo offers however, dwarfs many of the current shooting guards projected to be drafted. He will get drafted alone just based on his offense even if he can't defend, has character red flags, and hasn't played above prep school. If he does answer some of those question though, then Ledo is a first round pick with potential to go in the lottery. Shooting guards with complete offensive games are a rare breed nowadays. 

Saturday, August 4, 2012

Scouting Report: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

Height: 6'6''
Weight: 185lbs
Wingspan: 6'5.5''
Bday: 2/18/1993

Team: Georgia
Class of 2015

Caldwell-Pope had high expectations on his shoulders being the first McDonald's All-American to head to Athens since Carlos Strong in 1992, and while he was unable to will them to a winning season, he did show enough to get him into the NBA draft discussion. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope's freshman season overall was a successful one, as he met the expectations of a top 20 recruit. He was one of their best players and lead the team in minutes played and steals, while finishing second on the team in point and rebounding.

The first thing I want to touch on is his shooting since it is a large part of his offense. Caldwell-Pope shot less than 40% from the field which is definitely a concerning number. When you look closer, you can see that 56% of Caldwell-Pope's shots were 3 point attempts, which makes him more 3-pt centered than Kim English, Marcus Denmon, CJ Wilcox, Seth Curry, Ashton Gibbs, Bradley Beal, and Darius Miller just to name a few.

So his high 3-pt attempts are a big part of why his overall FG% is so low. The fact that he only made 30% of his threes offers an even better explanation. Caldwell-Pope never stopped firing threes all season long even though hi 3-pt% was never above 34%. To finish the season, Caldwell-Pope went on a 8-44 drought.

Caldwell-Pope has always been known as a shooter and looks the part. He does a great job of setting his feet and squaring up to the hoop. His quick release aids his chucking ways, allowing him to get shots off with even the slightest bit of space. Pope took a lot of early threes last year, pulling up in transition and whenever he had room. Despite him missing tons of them, Caldwell-Pope's confidence never wavered. While his unconscious shooting can be seen as a bad thing, he does have the ideal shooter's mentality. Caldwell-Pope is a good shooter - that part of his game will come around.

I did see a more than a couple of times where Caldwell-Pope offered up air balls from 3-pt range. Right now, he has plenty of range but he needs to adjust to the college 3-pt line. Inside the arc, Caldwell-Pope's jumper was just as pure and even more reliable. Caldwell-Pope struggles to create space for his own shot, but if you overplay him, he does have a good first step and the ability to shoot off the dribble. He doesn't get to the rim very often, but he does a great job of getting squared up on the fly and hitting mid-range jumpers. He can move laterally out of the defenses' way or drive to the foul line area and pull up with a slight fade to create enough room for his jumper. He isn't the kind of guy who is going to cross you up and dribble the ball excessively, but he can use the dribble to get to spots on the floor he feels comfortable at.

His 2-pt% is actually solid for a guy who rarely gets to the rim. He shot over 50% inside the arc, making him slightly above average for a shooting guard. Considering all the long 2s he took, it is a testament to his pure shooting ability. Pope isn't a trained 3-pt shooter, he is a guy who can hit from all over. 

One problem Caldwell-Pope will have to overcome is his short arms. His wingspan measured about equal length to his height at around 6'6'' this summer. With his quick release and good elevation, Caldwell-Pope has already eliminated his short arm problem when it comes to affecting his shooting. He also has shown a turnaround jumper when posting up and fades back on his mid-range jumpers. When he finishes, Caldwell-Pope is explosive and finishes strong, often with dunks. He also does a good job of gathering himself and staying under control. He does everything he can on offense to prevent his lack of length get in the way.

Defensively, his lack of length doesn't appear to bother him either but it does limit who he can guard. With only a 6'6'' wingspan, it makes him strictly a shooting guard at the next level. Thats unfortunate because he is a very good defender who could be used as a teams primary wing defender in the future. The fact that he doesn't have the length to cover a lot of small forwards is disappointing. He may be able to make up for it with his toughness and tenacity on defense. Caldwell-Pope guards his man like his life depends on it at all times. He plays physical, possesses great lateral quickness, and had excellent awareness and energy for a guy who was only 18 for much of the season. He also did a great job helping off his man to stop penetration and his rebounding was phenomenal for a guard. He was second on the team in rebounding and ranked 10th out of all shooting guards in rebounds per 40 minutes. The only freshman who ranked above him was Bradley Beal, who played in a four guard offense while Caldwell-Pope played on a more traditional team.

As a shooter, it is a great sign for Caldwell-Pope's stock that he is willing to contribute to the team in other areas. There are plenty of guys who can shoot so everything you can do to stick out helps your case. Shooters success often depends on the situation the are placed in and that is why they generally don't go in the lottery. Caldwell-Pope has an uphill battle to prove that he is more valuable than other shooters and warrants a top 20 selection in the draft.

I also observed some other little things about his game that the numbers don't show. He has low assists numbers (but does have a positive A/TO ratio) since he can't create shots for himself much less anyone else, but he is a good passer. He is able to thread passes in between defenders while rarely making mistakes. Off the ball, Caldwell-Pope works hard to get open off screens and as I said before, is very quick to square his shoulders to the basket. He also can use on-ball screens to move laterally around for cleaner looks on his jumper. He likely will never be a guy to split defenders on picks, but he is able to use them to his advantage. He also does a good job of cutting to the hoop when the opportunity presents itself. In transition, Caldwell-Poope does show that he has adequate handle and is actually very fast with the ball.

He seems like a good character guy and student. He has the right attitude to be a complimentary wing player either off the bench or next to a high volume scorer. Caldwell-Pope isn't a franchise changer at the NBA level or even really at the college level, as you saw with Georgia's record, but he can turn into an important role player down the line on a good team. He brings a lot of things besides his shooting to the table. It would be nice to see him shoot a higher % from 3 this season because two straight seasons of bad shooting numbers would force anyone to revisit their assumption that he is a good shooter. I, of course, expect that his 3-pt percentage will be improved. Some draft sites have his stock as high as the lottery, but I think a more realistic projection would be the late teens to the mid-20s. Caldwell-Pope will be an interesting player to follow this season and is always a fun player to watch.

Saturday, July 28, 2012

Scouting Report: Xavier Rathan-Mayes

I've had the chance to evaluate Rathan-Mayes about five times in person now and have seen him in a high school setting with Huntington Prep, at the Global Challenge with Canada, and playing AAU ball for CIA Bounce. 

Xavier Rathan-Mayes showed up big time in the premier matchup against Julius Randle's Texas Titans. He had 22 points on the night and really caught fire at the beginning of the second half. Rathan-Mayes is great at finding ways to shoot his jumper - maybe to a fault as he settles for a lot of jumpshots (he only shot 36% for the weekend). He has a nice crossover dribble, uses screens well, and will post up defenders around the 3-pt line to set up his shot. He also has a turnaround jumper in his pocket. With these moves, Rathan-Mayes can light up the scoring column when he catches fire. Even when his shot isn't falling, he remains very confident. The problem right now is he relies to much on his jumper. He takes too many inefficient long two pointers and is a very streaky shooter. His jumpshot is good, but he isn't elite in that area (31% from 3, 75% from the FT line) so he needs to remember to attack the basket.

It seems all Canadian guards are good with the pick and roll and Rathan-Mayes is no exception. He likes to shoot his jumper off of screens, but he also has the vision and dribble ability to find teammates. He does a nice job changing speeds and not forcing his dribble as well. His mid-range game is also able to shine through off on-ball screens.

Rathan-Mayes does need get his teammates more involved and work on doing the little things to help his team win. He has been able to be Wiggins' wingman, but he hasn't picked up on some of the hustle things that go along with that. Part of it may be that Wiggins is a unique superstar and does many of the little things himself while Rathan-Mayes compliments him with shooting. Still, Rathan-Mayes needs to show more effort and mix it up more inside. That includes both on drives and on the glass. I think his driving game has more potential than what he has shown thus far - he definitely isn't strictly a shooter offensively.

He measured with a 6'5'' wingspan at the LeBron James camp so in the future, he may need to move to point guard. That may be too much to ask of him, but it would be realistic to see him as a scoring combo guard off the bench in the NBA one day.

Rathan-Mayes has a lot of talent but right now projects as an inefficient volume scorer at the next level who doesn't make his teammates better and is undersized. Luckily he has plenty of time to grow and I fully expect he will. He kind of reminds me of a rich man's Adrian Oliver or even a Willie Green.

Rathan-Mayes has interest from around the country and a wide open list. I could see him following Wiggins to Florida State or even Kentucky if they were to eventually offer him. Other than that, where he winds up is anybody's guess.

He compares his game to Chauncey Billups and you can see that with some of his offensive moves. He plays under control and has been working on posting up smaller defenders. Rathan-Mayes also cite Billups toughness as something he sees in himself.