Stock Attack: Michael Carter-Williams

When I'm evaluating point guard prospects, I take a especially close look at their ability to control the tempo of the game, I also like to see how they handle adversity, run the pick and roll, change speeds, and balance scoring and passing. A point guard cannot disappear during the game. A point guard has to be the rock of the team. That is what I am looking for, guys with those traits.

Trey Burke has all of that. When it comes to Michael Carter-Williams, I'm hesitant to say he possesses any of those qualities. He disappeared from plenty of games. His passing consisted of a lot of drive and kicks and transition feeds. Yes, MCW did post great assists numbers. But how the assists were obtained are more important. When I look at MCW, I ask if he can consistently make plays out of the pick and roll and find teammates. Or if he can control the pace, set the offense, and make the simple plays. Where is his mid-range game? Carter-Williams makes a lot of spectacular plays and is a helluva talent, but he hasn't shown he can be a model of consistency. That is troubling from a point guard prospect.

There were a lot of games where Carter-Williams was quiet for an entire half and dominated the other. For some guys, thats just a matter of them knowing when to take over. For Carter-Williams, it was more of him being taken out of the game by the defense.

We are talking about a guy whose skills aren't up to par. He shoots a very flat shot with inconsistent mechanics. Some say he was a better shooter in HS, but that doesn't mean anything to me after he's had more than a full season at the college level. I saw that he did shoot well in Nike's EYBL events in AAU, but I don't take much stock into that. Those rims are very kind to make the players look better and benefit guys who don't shoot with much arc.

If you can't make shots consistently, the rest of your game better be refined. Carter-Williams is not. His ball handling skills are weak and magnified by his lack of strength. When he drives and the defense doesn't collapse on him to give him a passing option, he struggles to finish. He does have a nice floater, but can't get it off consistently. He lacks an explosive first step. Instead, Carter-Williams has to rely on his above average quickness for his size and a solid crossover. It works, but its much more of a shooting guard move than a point guard.

A point guard shouldn't need to overdribble to get his shot off. A point guard should understand how to change speeds and work the pick and roll game effectively. Burke was never taken out of games because he could always makes plays if he got a ball screen. Carter-Williams has a tougher task to operate in the pick and roll due to his height and he doesn't do himself any favors either. He doesn't change speeds well or mix up his strides. He's very shaky with the ball when two defenders are around him and his passing instincts look much more raw when it comes to more advanced plays.

Again, the drive and kick play is the most simple way for a point guard to get assists. Its the most basic play that any point guard should be able to execute. Carter-Williams can do it with the best of them in college, but  that doesn't make him a point guard. That is just the initial layer to being a point guard and when you look for more layers to his game, they aren't present.

Carter-Williams also struggled mightily against ball pressure as you saw if you watched the Big East Championship game against Louisville. For the first half, MCW and Cuse played well enough to have the lead. In the second half, Louisville turned up their defensive pressure and completely blew out Syracuse. The difference in halves was remarkable and the biggest blame goes to the point guard.

Then there was the Final 4 game against Michigan. Carter-Williams fouled out and went to the bench crying as if the game was over. Except it wasn't and Syracuse almost won the game. But there he was sitting on the bench with his head buried in a towel instead of cheering on his team. A leader doesn't act as if the game is over because he fouled out. Throughout the year, Syracuse was one of the most up and down teams in the country and there wasn't much leadership coming from their point guard. For a guy who should be the rock of the team, Carter-Williams was one of the most inconsistent players - both with his play on the court and in his emotions. You shouldn't ever get too high or too low as a basketball player - especially as a point guard. Its yet another thing Michael Carter-Williams has to overcome.

He gets some comparisons to Shaun Livingston but Livingston was a great athlete coming out of high school while Carter-Williams is just "good" athletically. Also, Carter-Williams wasn't even considered a point guard coming out of HS and there was a reason for that. Shaun Livingston had such pure point guard skills he was compared to Magic Johnson.

Defensively, Michael Carter-Williams has all the tools and good instincts to go with it. He had plenty of steals operating at the top of the zone and while his length and the system certainly helped, his ability to play the passing lanes should somewhat translate to the NBA. The biggest worry about his defense though is that he doesn't have experience at a high level playing man to man defense. And in recent times, Syracuse players have really struggled to make the adjustment. Even guys like Wes Johnson who people believed had all the athletic tools to make up for player in a zone. Right now, its just a very risky proposition to take a Syracuse player for his defensive ability. Carter-Williams could turn out to be very good defensively, but I wouldn't view it as a sure thing.

Potential is a word that is often associated with Michael Carter-Williams when you point out all these flaws. Sure, he has the height that most other point guards don't have. You can't teach size. But its also very hard to learn and improve all his other weaknesses when there are so many. There is potential and then there is the chances a player reaches his potential. I understand that you can't count out a guy improving his skills, but you can say a guy won't grow, but I'll take players with the necessary skills and ability over a guy with height anyday. Those attributes are very hard to improve as well. And at the age of 21, Michael Carter-Williams is far from the youngest player in the draft.

La Lumiere vs St. Benedict's Prep Scouting Notes

Tyler Ennis (#38 ESPN, #24 Scout, #23 Rivals) - One of my personal favorites of the 2013 class, Ennis will be heading to Syracuse next year where he will be asked to lead the team right away. And after years playing with Team Canada, St. Benedict's Prep, and CIA Bounce on the AAU circuit he has plenty of experience. There isn't a point guard in high school right now who is more well-rounded and ready for college than Ennis. He is outstanding in pick and roll action where he thrives both as a scorer and a passer. In this game, Ennis took over in the second half by getting to the line 8 times and scoring 16 of his 22 points during the final 16 minutes. He has great ball handling skills, great leadership, and his basketball IQ is mature well beyond his years. Ennis also has good height and while he isn't the great athlete, he has a good enough combination of size, quickness, strength, and explosiveness to the point where it doesn't hurt him. Ennis is the type of point guard who works best off pick and rolls and prefers to attack much more than shoot from the outside. That said, he has a very good mid-range game and is excellent from the foul line. Look for him to be a great player right away at Cuse and expect him to stick around for a couple of seasons.

Isaiah Briscoe (#16 ESPN Class of 2015) - Briscoe wasn't 100% in this game and it showed. He played just 14 minutes and committed 4 fouls during that time. Once pegged as one of the best freshmen in the country. Briscoe is now a year older and doesn't look like he's made the next jump. He's a powerfully built wing, but isn't that big or long and it seems like his competition is catching up with him. Still, its impressive that he's been able to be a key player on such a good, well-coached team from day one and he does play a mature game. We will see if how he continues to develop down the line.

Mike Young (#57 ESPN) - Young is heading to Pittsburgh and he's exactly what you'd expect a Pitt player to look like. He's 6'8 with a good build and can cover both forward positions. He's a great rebounder and looks stuck in between the 3 and the 4 spot on offense. He does have good touch on his jumper and could score in similar ways to JJ Moore once he arrives on campus. He's yet another building block for Jamie Dixon, but not a game changer.

Detrick Mostella (#77 ESPN, #68 Scout, #84 Rivals) - The Oklahoma State commit is a scoring guard who isn't shy when it comes to taking shots. He took 26 of them on Thursday including 8 from deep - all of which he missed. He is best when he is slashing to the rim and he was able to find ways to get himself plenty of shots at the rim as well. He is a creative finisher and is able to hang in the air, but he will need to get stronger to consistently finish in the paint at high major level. Mostella should eventually become a very good scorer for Oklahoma State and could even turn into their go-to guy down the road.

Shabazz, MCW, and "ABeast" - Plus Today's Games to Watch

Anthony Bennett had another good game against Canisus - he scored 21 points. His jumper has been looking excellent and effortless from 3-pt range. He set screens for teammates in order to get himself open. And in transition, Bennett shined once again - showing the body control of a guard on the break. He had one possession where he brought the ball up the court in transition and stopped on a dime at the free throw line to avoid the charge; hitting a mid-range jumper in the process. The way Bennett moves in the opencourt is the most impressive thing about him.

As for his defense, he did a terrible job of attempting to play help defense. He helped too far off his man, while not actually providing any help defense, and left his man open for wide open 3s. Going into this game, Jordan Heath's career high in 3-pt attempts was 4. He had 4 within the first ten minutes of last night's game and finished with 10 attempts on the night. That was the result of Bennett's lack of feel and urgency on the defensive end.

Shabazz Muhammad had 27 points in 26 minutes against Fresno State. He also had 7 rebounds - all on the offensive end. Its amazing how much better he is on the glass when there is a chance to get two points out of it. Muhammad has proven he has a strong desire to score and will do whatever it takes to make sure he gets his points. Now that he has lost 13 pounds in the last few weeks, we are seeing just how much of an impact he can have on the offensive glass. Its definitely his biggest strength.

Muhammad has gotten comparisons to Michael Kidd-Gilchrist because of his willingness to do whatever it takes to win. I see it more as he is willing to do whatever it takes to score. Kidd-Gilchrist is a guy who can help his team win in a lot more ways. I still haven't been impressed by Muhammad's defense and he doesn't have the playmaking ability of MGK. He will, however, score a lot more points. They are different players.

If I had to compare Muhammad to a NBA player, it would be Jerry Stackhouse. Stackhouse cleaned up on the glass in college, played tough, wasn't especially quick laterally, and lacked much of a floor game. Stackhouse was able to develop a good jumper and Muhammad has already started to show improvement with his shot. He should end up as a reliable shooting threat.

As for Muhammad's worth, it depends a lot of the team. Remember when Muhammad came back from injury and Jordan Adams wasn't expected to be as much of a factor anymore? Well it turns out, Muhammad actually needs that kind of player. He needs to play in a backcourt with players who can create their own shot and make plays. Muhammad can be a big scorer in the NBA, but he will thrive off of others. You don't want him playing next to a Demar Derozan. You want him focused on working off of the ball and finding a way to get the ball in the hoop. He isn't going to make plays for teammates, but he won't turn the ball over either. He doesn't need the ball to be effective.

In the lottery Toronto and Charlotte would be bad fits because they are already building around wings that aren't big offensive threats.

Yesterday Michael Carter-Williams showed some of the things Ive been concerned about all year and they lost to Temple. This is why I've been saying lets wait until Big East play. I've had a lot of people ask me why I've been so down on MCW and I feel somewhat vindicated after yesterday. Im not overreacting to one bad game here, everyone else has been overreacting to a string of solid games against a very weak schedule. His flaws have been on display all year.

Carter-Williams is very good in transition and has been able to get into the paint and make the simple pass this year. He has racked up a lot of assists and can see over defenses, but its ridiculous to compare his passing ability to Rubio's or Kendall Marshall's. Those guys have an out of this world knowledge of the game and the ability to see things before they happen. Carter-Williams has a good feel for the game, but is nowhere near the point guard either of them are.

Syracuse did much of their damage in transition play as they have all year. Carter-Williams himself is the key in this, as he is great at forcing turnovers and getting out on the break. His long strides and ability to change directions with good body control are key factors. He also does a good job finding ways to get the ball to teammates.

In the halfcourt, Carter-Williams has been very aggressive. Against San Diego State, Carter-Williams relied on his quick first step and a floater to get his points. He didn't go all the way to the rim against them. After that, Cuse has been playing cupcakes whose centers barely rival MCW in length and he has been able to get into the painted area. He still struggled finishing with contact and that was especially evident yesterday against Temple - their toughest opponent since SDSU.

Carter-Williams relies on his terrific first step to create offense in the halfcourt at this point. He has a good feel for the pick and roll game, but is too turnover prone to run it consistent. He has a loose dribble and combined with his height, struggles in the traffic an on ball screen creates. Its also true when he drives into the lane - that combined with his lack of strength is a big concern.

Syracuse's defense has been able to put their players in position to get overrated by NBA scouts. From Hakim Warrick, Jonny Flynn, Donte Greene, Dion Waiters, Wesley Johnson - these guys have all been major disappointments once they've gotten into the NBA. Carter-Williams is making like Waiters on defense this year - showing good anticipation skills and gambling for a lot of steals. He's a huge threat in this area, but how does it translate?

Carter-Williams will have a sizable learning curve to make up for on defense when he gets to the NBA and his predecessors aren't positive examples of success. He does have great tools on this end of the floor, but it doesn't automatically make him a great defender.

All in all, there can't be a more overrated player in the country right now from a NBA Draft perspective. This is a kid who also has character concerns and that came before the shoplifting incident. He is competitive and has a love for the game which is a positive. Yes he was willing to sit on the bench for a full season and didn't transfer despite contemplating it, but why would he transfer? He would have had to sit out a whole season and he knew that he would be starter this year at Cuse. Its hardly a reason to applaud him.

Carter-Williams wasn't even looked at as a point guard until late in his high school career, and even up until this year, has always been considering a combo guard. He has made great strides in learning the point guard position but still has a long way to go. His potential is definitely worth a first round pick this season but the "best point guard prospect in the country" talk needs to stop.

*With the upcoming week lacking in quantity of games, I'll be spreading out more thoughts throughout the week on yesterday's games.*

Games to Watch Today:

St. Mary's at Northern Iowa 2pm
Kennesaw State at Pittsburgh 5pm ESPN3
Indiana State vs San Diego State 5pm ESPNU
Colorado State vs Virginia Tech 11:30pm CBSSN
Arizona vs Miami 11:30pm ESPN2

CJ, Cuse Sail Past San Diego State

Carter-Williams has the floater down, rushes his moves, can get outta control. posted up. can get the floater whenever with his height advantage and quick first step

Fair playing SF - 3 jumpers, good body control, hands contact well

Franklin sloppy. really had a problem handling the ball and making good decisions under pressure. handling in traffic. he built hype over the summer with his play in summer leagues but we are seeing how he plays when actual defense is being played. this isnt playground but, this is shipyard ball. some good passes. weird situation as PF vs 2-3. overpenetrates

triche looking quicker, changing speeds, using body

A game on a naval ship finally came to completion yesterday, with Syracuse upending San Diego State 62-49. It never really was close, but San Diego State was at a disadvantage. They had to shoot into the sun in the first half and managed to only score 19 points without connecting on a three. Between the two teams they combined to shoot 2-22 from behind the arc. Syracuse was able to abandon the three ball, only taking four the entire game, but SDSU - facing the 2/3 zone didn't have the same luxury. The chucked 18 threes as its really the only hope to beat the Orange. By the time the second half rolled around, San Diego State was in panick mode and they were unable to put together a run. They lost by 13, but were done by more much of the second half.

One would say their loss may have been unFAIR, but I'd credit CJ FAIR for providing a scoring threat for the Orange from the get-go. Fair has made the transition to full time small forward this year and showed off an improved jumper - hitting 3 long jumpers, including Cuse's only 3 - in the first half. He finished with 17 points on 7-15 shooting. His ball handling skills are iffy although Fair possesses solid creativeness and body control in the lane. You can still tell he operated from inside the arc much of his career. His jumper is also slow. The biggest problem for Fair's draft stock is his ability to cover the perimeter. Many Cuse wings struggle with a transition to the NBA because of defense, and it will be even harder for Fair since he's already a tweener and lacks good lateral quickness. He's talented and has great physical attributes, but he has an uphill battle to climb with his draft stock.

The matchup to watch was at the guard positions between Michael Carter-Williams and Jamaal Franklin. They didn't battle head to head unfortunately, but they mirror each other in the way they play. Franklin came out of the gate rusty and committed three early turnovers. Things never got much better for him and he finished with 7 giveaways on the night. Franklin is a guy who plays power forward for San Diego State but is a shooting guard at the next level. Up against the 2-3, he was expected to be the facilitator in the middle. This didn't happen though, partly due to him and also because of their lack of shooting threats outside. Franklin was bothered all night by tight defense and couldn't control the ball in a crowd. He built hype over the summer with his highlights and domination in summer leagues - games that suit his style well. However when actual defense is being played, Franklin has questionable handle and even more questionable decision making. This was a tough situation for him.

Carter-Williams also has a tendency to play out of control. This was his first game receiving starter minutes after he rode the bench last year. He was asked to lead the offense much of the game, despite playing with senior Brandon Triche and he was able to make some plays. Carter-Williams has a very quick and long first step that enables him to get into the lane at will. He also has nice touch on his floater which he can get off against any point guard that tries to guard him. That shot will always be there for him. He also can take advantage of his size in the post which he tried to do once yesterday, but to no avail. He played this game out of control and tried to hurry his ball handling moves. He finished with 17 points before fouling out while also turning it over as much as he assisted teammates (4) and getting 5 steals. He will be near the top of the charts in steals this season.

The last guy who stood out was Brandon Triche who finally looks healthy heading into his senior year. Triche was much quicker than usual, finished with both hands, and used his strength to his advantage. He was aggressive getting to the rim. If his in-between game improves, he could end up getting draft in the second round. Lots of good point guards this year.