Showing posts with label Alex Len. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Alex Len. Show all posts

Wednesday, March 27, 2013

Dwayne Morgan to UNLV is No Reason For Terps Fans to be Upset

St. Frances SF Dwayne Morgan announced today live on DMVElite.com that he will spend his next four years playing basketball for the University of Nevada-Las Vegas. UNLV was the first team to offer Morgan a scholarship and had been in constant contact with him throughout the whole process. After his visit out west in January, Morgan said that it felt like home and it all but sealed the deal on his decision. Maryland was also in the running and Bino Ranson took in many St Frances games during the past year, but they didn't make the same push the Georgetown or UNLV did down the homestretch. Morgan said that Maryland barely contacted him recently and when he made his choice, there was no Maryland hat even in the picture.

The Terrapins may have sensed Morgan was set on UNLV, but at the same time, I don't think he was ever that high of a priority to them. The idea of yet another highly ranked SF getting away from the Terps is a scary thought for their fans after seeing Carmelo Anthony, Rudy Gay, and Donte Greene all blow up en route to heading to the NBA, but Morgan isn't at their level - at least not yet. Morgan is a good recruit, but he isn't a program changer. More importantly, Maryland has their eyes on another local top 30 player in the country and that is Dion Wiley. With Melo Trimble already on board for the class of 2014as well, Maryland has plenty of young perimeter players already.

Assuming Alex Len heads to the NBA draft this year (or even next year), the Terrapins have room for 3 scholarship players on their roster by the time the 2014-15 season comes along. The depth chart will look something like this (a Pe'Shon Howard-less roster!):

PG - Roddy Peters (SO)/Seth Allen (JR)
SG - Nick Faust (SR)/Melo Trimble (FR)
SF - Dez Wells (SR)/Jake Layman (JR)
PF - Evan Smotrycz (SR)/Charles Mitchell (JR)
C - Shaquille Cleare (JR) /Damonte Dodd (SO)

Dion Wiley is said to be a Maryland lean at this point and has been seen at plenty of Maryland games. Terps have shown mutual strong interest in him and were said to be in attendance for over 20 of his games this season. Just my personal opinion, but Wiley is a better player than Morgan at this point and is also ranked higher according to ESPN. So if Maryland feels comfortable about securing Wiley, and I think they do, then there is less of a need for Morgan. 

Furthermore, with Dez Wells and Jake Layman, small forward looks to be their strongest position in the 2014-15 season. Wells could enter the draft a year early potentially, but Layman should still be there (unless Jimmy Dykes has his way and he goes pro) and projects to be a excellent player by the time he is an upperclassmen. Maryland will also have a very strong stable of guards, but when it comes down to it, they'll take Wiley over Morgan because that appears to be their preference.

More importantly is the fact that the Terrapins will need to use at least one scholarship on a big man. They could really use a shotblocker type to protect the rim and also a guy who can play more of a stretch forward role. Smotrycz will fill in as a stretch forward for the next two years and Layman should also be worthy of minutes at PF, but bringing in a big time athlete at that position should be a priority.

Right now the Terps are high on Abdul-Malik Abu who fits the mold and they have also shown interest in Chinanu Onuaku, more of a center type who can provide a strong defensive presence inside. 

It looks like Wiley plus a big is the plan to fill two current two scholarships that they have available, while they could also look to bring in a Juco point guard once Alex Len makes it official that he's heading to the NBA. Terp fans should not be disappointed that a local star got away because it was only to make room for another local star that they believe is better. The idea of a Peters/Trimble/Wiley starting perimeter is exactly what Terps fans should be excited for - three local players that can really fill up the scoreboard. Trimble and Wiley are arguably the two best class of 2014 scorers in the DMV area and they will also provide some much needed outside shooting. The future is still bright in College Park and there are more exciting times ahead.

Saturday, January 19, 2013

Midseason Report: Alex Len

Not only did Alex Len come into this season 30 pounds heavier than last year, he was also a lot more comfortable. In his freshman season, he was forced to miss the first ten games and the season and had a hard time adjusting to life in the states. Imagine his situation - missing the first ten games is one thing - we saw how slow Shabazz was after missing weeks of practice and UCLA's first three games. And the overall transition to the college game is tough for any player, especially living away from home for the first time. But for Len, he moved by himself to another country and didn't even understand the language. So while he was behind in learning Maryland's system, he had an even tougher time understanding the coaches and getting up to speed.

This year Len's English had improved to the point where he can now communicate with his teammates and understand what the coaches have to say. There was a sense that he would have a breakout year and potentially become a first round draft pick. Maryland's first game was against Kentucky and Len didn't wait very long to generate buzz in front of plenty of NBA scouts at Barclay's. 

Len had 23 points (10-18 shooting) and 12 rebounds against potential #1 overall pick Nerlens Noel. This was the perfect way for Len to start off his year and the matchup couldn't have been better. The hype surrounding Noel was immense, but he was still a very raw freshman in his first game. But seeing Alex Len outplay him, that turned some heads - even though it shouldn't have been a surprise. 

Soon after, you started hearing Len's name mentioned among the top 5 players in the draft. An obvious overreaction for a guy who really only had one good game. Fans were infatuated with a college big man with a true post game. Old school NBA fans loved him and wondered aloud if he could be the polished post big man that the NBA has been missing. They romanticized his game into something they longed for - something that has been thought to be dying in the professional game.

And make no mistake about it - Alex Len is a highly skilled player. His back to the basket game is one of the best to come along in the college ranks in recent memory. The variety of ways in which he can score, his ability to stretch the defense, and his touch on his shot make his offensive game complete. He throws in turnaround jumpers from either shoulder, solid footwork, and willingness to operate with his back to the basket the people love and is tough to stop if you are the opposition. 

Len didn't dominate competition after his game against Kentucky. After his 23 point performance against the Wildcats, Len failed to match it in any other non-conference affair - netting a high 19 against Stony Brook. But Len wasn't needed to dominate these games. Maryland rolled over most of their competition with a high scoring offensive attack that didn't have to involve their plodding big man. They played arguably the weakest non-conference schedule in the NCAA and Len was consistently covered by smaller defenders - but sometimes two defenders at a time. 

Heading into ACC play, you could say Alex Len was playing a good game. He went "all-in" on the Kentucky game, raising his stock, and then sat back and played it safe thereafter. There wasn't much he could have done in games against the likes of Maryland-Eastern Shore, Georgia Southern, and South Carolina State. He continued to flash his skills each game and analysts were satisfied with his performance - with Kentucky still engraved in their mind.

ACC play is a different animal though. It separates the men from the boys. So far, Len had faced young "boys" at Kentucky in their first career college game and a bunch of low-major 6-7 post players. And he actually struggled at times with the physicality of play and defense.

But nobody was watching him then. 

We are now 5 games into ACC play. Through these 5 games, Len is shooting 47% from the field, 19-28 from the line, grabbing 11 boards (per 40), and has 7 blocks and 5 assists to his name. Again, still nothing dominating and his last two games against other potential first round bigs have netted him 20 total points. 

The Terrapins have had trouble getting the ball into Len and in the process, are making sure people don't underestimate the value of a quality entry pass. Pe'Shon Howard has struggled to run the point for the Terps and has delivered errant passes into the post time and time again.

Passing into the post is a lost art. And it comes with the lack of big men with offensive skills like Len's. And playing through a big man is also something that has gone to the wayside. 

The Terrapins have been battling with an identity crisis so far in ACC play due to that very issue. They have a good big man and want to get the ball into him, But at the same time, the game has changed and you like your players to get out and push the ball in transition. If a college team is struggling to focus an offense around a talented big man, you think a more talented NBA team will go out of their way to run their offense through one?

Maryland's problem isn't just entry passing and style of play when it comes to featuring Len. Its personnel. Maryland's other bigs are bruising types and clog the lane on offense. Between Shaq Cleare, Charles Mitchell and James Padgett - none of them have shown an inclination to shoot jumpers. So with the big lineups Mark Turgeon likes to run, Alex Len usually lacks the space that a lot of other college teams have that have stretch power forwards.

But it isn't just the big man who can't shoot. No, this is a problem with the whole team. Such a problem that Albany transfer Logan Aronhalt finds himself as a necessary member of the team's rotation. They rank 10th in the ACC in 3-pt percentage and have only made 95 on the year - which ranks them 243rd in the nation. 

So spacing is an obvious problem as well. Pe'Shon can't throw entry passes or run point, Dez Wells prefers to push the ball, and Nick Faust rarely looks to set up his teammates to score. Not exactly the supporting cast you'd want to surround Len with. But we know what he is capable of on offense so that isn't a concern.

Concerns with Len come with his defense and his role at the next level. His role is a complicated matter that we've skimmed over a few times already. His defense is pretty simple - he's not very good at it.

And I don't think most people have realized that Len is a bad defender. But they will now that ACC play has started. Simply looking at blocks, you'd assume Len is at least a solid defender. He's normally good for two of them a game. 

Being a good shot blocker doesn't equal a good defender though. Len is the perfect example. For one, Len is a chronic biter on pump fakes. He's always looking to block a shot and is easily lifted off of his feet. To make it worse is his recovery time - once he gets out of place, ball handlers will have their shot off before he can even regather himself.

His lack of ability to make up for mistakes also corresponds to his inability to change directions or move laterally well. Opposing teams love getting Len out on the top of the arc to cover the pick and roll. He is very slow on his feet, struggles changing directions, and lacks an understanding of where to be in order to disrupt the offense. In most cases, Len finds himself in no mans land - not helping hedge the ball handler or getting back to cover the roller. A slow mind mixed with slow feet is not a recipe for success on defense. Len finds himself out of position more times than not on the defensive end.

Len also needs to do a better job using that 7'5'' wingspan on the defensive end. Naturally, Len stands a bit awkwardly and is obviously not a natural knee bender when it comes to getting into defense position and moving his feet. But in the post, Len can do a better job of showing off his wingspan and deterring shots without going for blocks. He needs to develop a mentality as a rim protector - too many times he allows a man to slip behind him and get an easy basket. He also struggles with smaller guys who can go into his body, use his leverage against him, and also outmuscle him. Len has been beaten in this way by some of the low-major players.

Alex Len is a solid rebounder, pulling down 12.5 per 40 minutes. Compared to other top prospects, Len is the 11th best big man in DraftExpress's Top 100 in terms of rebounds. Not great, not terrible. For his size, you'd like more. For the NBA, you'd certainly like a center that is either a great defender or rebounder. Len is neither at this point. Len has been outhustled and outmanned on the boards at times this year. When he does pull down boards though, he usually does a good job of maintaining possession. 

Then there is the question of fit. How does he fit an NBA team? Who does he play like?

The Jonas Valanciunas comparison has been thrown around. Valanciunas actually dominated Len a few years back in the U-18 European Championships. The comparison is pretty off base. Yes, both have similar size and builds while lacking great athleticism. But that is where the comparisons stop for me.

Valanciunas is a much different offensive player. He thrives finishing around the hoop and doesn't stray too far from there. He sticks with his bread and butter and plays efficient basketball. He knows how to use his length around the rim and is stronger than he looks. He also is a good screener who would much rather roll to the basket off a ball screen than to pop out for a jumper. His ability to roll after a pick is a considerable strength and he gets a lot of points this way. On these plays, Jonas shows his ability to move in space and the body control to finish. Valanciunas has always been, and projects to be, a complimentary piece on offense instead of a guy you ask to make plays in the post.

Now for Len, he's a guy who would much prefer to pop after a ball screen. He is much more skilled and can knock down jumpers from 18 feet in. When he rolls, he is slow and isn't very fluid. He can do it on occasion and has good hands to receive passes, but it is not a strength of his. And when it comes to finishing inside, he is not on the same level as Jonas. Len shies away from the contact and is hesitant in traffic. He doesnt use his long arms as well as the Lithuanian does to finish. When it comes to offensive skills though, Alex Len's ability far outshine Valanciunas's as has already been discussed. He is much more likely to receive post touches and have the offense run through him.

Defensively is where the greatest separation could be. Valanciunas has the lateral ability, the aggressiveness, and the smarts that Len has not shown. And that is where fit comes into play. Valanciunas fit into the NBA was easy to project. Len has a more intriguing package in some ways, but how can a NBA team use it?

NBA centers in today's game are asked to rebound and defender first and foremost. The game has changed from the days of dominant offensive bigs. There is no more hand checking which allows guards to be much more prominent. While people yearn for fundamentally sound bigs to return, the problem is more of the priorities of GMs than it is the lack of back to the basket big men. 

Alex Len has lots of work to do in order to become a starter in the NBA and fill the role of a 2012 NBA center. And if you do run the offense through him, his passing has to improve if the 5 assists in 5 ACC games is any indication.

Sunday, January 6, 2013

Maryland vs Virginia Tech

Maryland 94, Virginia Tech 71

This was a statement game for the Terrapins, and even though I'm a bit bias, this is a team that is severely underrated. They can play effectively big or small and are well balanced on both ends of the court. They also have a good mix of veterans and new players.

Dez Wells has been key for the Terps, acting as the playmaker on offense and stopper defensively. He is impossible to keep out of the lane and has the body type and athleticism to be an elite finisher at the rim. Right now shooting is his only Achilles' heel, but he looks like a future first rounder.

Alex Len continues to show an excellent feel and arsenal in the post. He had 16 points and 9 rebounds in just 24 minutes. The thing about Maryland is they can focus their offense around him, but are equally deadly with him off the court. Len did have some problems with the physical play of Cadarian Raines, but it was a positive start in his mission to prove he is for real.

Maryland's freshman class is special. Seth Allen and Charles Mitchell were the two unheralded prospects from the class, but have made the biggest impact. Allen is very quick, but plays under control. He can get to the rim, pullup in the mid-range area, and stretch the defense out with his jumper. He also can transition back and forth from passer to scorer with ease.

Mitchell has earned his way into the starting lineup over senior James Padgett thanks to his ability as a rebounder. He has been one of the best in the country so far and will only get better as his conditioning improves. Turgeon says he doesn't always give 100% in practice so once he learns how to prepare himself and his body, he could be a scary force. Mitchell is a name to watch in the coming years as he plays himself into good shape.

The two top freshman from their class were Jake Layman and Shaq Cleare. Cleare was a top 50 recruit who has been outplayed by Mitchell so far, but has still contributed well himself. He doesn't have the same rebounding range as Mitchell, but has been on the receiving end of some thunderous dunks. For Layman, he got the start in the backcourt against the Hokies, creating all kinds of matchup problems. He was on Team USA's U-18 team over the summer. He's a guy the Terps will need in ACC play to stretch the defense with his shooting. Saturday was his best performace as he notche 15 points in the first half, finishing with 20.

For Virginia Tech, Erick Green managed to get 28 points even in a 94-71 route. He capitalizes on every opportunity to push the ball in transition he can get. Green is a guy who struggles with a man right in his face and Pe'Shon Howard bothered him at times. But if you get him running in transition or with the ball around a screen, he is deadly. Despite his 28 points, it seemed like the Terps kept him in check and prevented him from dictating any type of tempo. He only had 2 assists to go along with his 2 turnovers.

Saturday, December 29, 2012

Video Highlights of Alex Len vs Delaware State

Alex Len had a quiet game against Delaware State as Maryland had no problem dismantling the MEAC school. Len was able to get easy looks in the post, but only came away with 6 points in 17 minutes. Maryland likes to have him set down screens in order for him to establish initial position and Delaware State didn't put much effort into making it hard for Len to get position down low. Len had multiple good looks, but had a few lay-up attempts fall off of the rim.

The thing to watch in these highlights is Len's defense. You can get a better sense if you watch the complete game, but in the video below you can see a bit of his struggles. Len had four fouls, none of which prevented the opponent from still getting the bucket. He looked slow and unmotivated going after loose balls and was beaten multiple times on the offensive glass. He got a block shot, but still ended up giving up the points. And his block shot came on a play where the defender had him backed down all the way to the rim. He only recorded 2 rebounds in this game, both which fell into his lap. These are the kind of things I worry about when watching Len. Yes he has a great skillset, but the NBA needs their centers to provide toughness, defense, and rebounding.

Tuesday, December 25, 2012

ACC Conference Preview

PGs

Shane Larkin
Quinn Cook
Lorenzo Brown
Ian Miller
Erick Green
Marcus Paige

The ACC is famous for their point guard play, but this year may lack a first rounder. Lorenzo Brown has the best shot and conference play will be important for him. He will be more experienced than most of the ACC point guards and will be expected to lead NC State to a high finish in ACC play. Anything less than second place will be a disappointment.

Erick Green is the leading scorer in the country and ACC play won't stop him. He's a very talented offensive player and deserves second round looks in the draft. He is very quick and has tight handles, allowing him to play with defenders. He does a great job in the pick and roll, able to turn the corner or hit the long jumper. He is a scorer first, but is able to find teammates on kick outs. He can go left or right and his go to move may be a left handed drive finished with a soft, right-handed floater. He's a controlled driver and finishes well at the rim. In transition, he is deadly because of his speed and ability to avoid defenders. He shows good leadership and encourages teammates, but also coaches them up and expects a lot out of them.

SGs

PJ Hairston
Seth Curry
Rodney Purvis
Dexter Strickland
Durand Scott

Durand Scott has been one of my favorite players to watch this year. Despite other higher profiled players, I think either Durand Scott or Erick Green is the best guard in the ACC. Durand Scott is a tough competitor and a great defender. He has no problem breaking down defenses and finishing with creative layups. He also has added a 3-pt shot to his arsenal. The majority of Scott's shots are tough and he is actually a better shooter off the dribble and unbalanced than he is spotting up. He has done a fine job fitting in with Shane Larkin and picking his spots within the offensive flow. He isn't a guy who moves great off the ball and creates easy scoring opportunities for himself, but he is so talented in the sense that he doesn't need easy ways to score. Miami is best in the halfcourt when Larkin and Scott can breakdown defenses.

In terms of scoring, Seth Curry is right up there with Scott and Green, but isn't as athletic or as much of a playmaker. This year he has stepped up and shown the world that he is creative off the bounce and can create his own offense. I think he's always had it in him, but between trying to play point guard and sharing the ball with Austin Rivers, this is his first chance to focus on scoring the ball.

PJ Hairston is actually the best per minute scoring shooting guard in the ACC, but is only averaging 18 minutes per game. And rightfully so. He can shoot you out of a game just as well as he can shoot you into a game. He has followed up his freshman year by continuing to be a streaky scorer who settles for jumpshots. Hairston looked like he could be a nice threat heading to the rim out of college, but he tries to get to the rim and the explosion isn't prominent.

Defensively, Dexter Strickland and Rodney Purvis both get after it. Strickland's draft stock hasn't been helped this year, as he doesn't look fully recovered from his torn ACL injury. He has done a good job setting up teammates and acting as a point guard when needed. Yet his potential as a NBA point guard looks dim. With lost athleticism, Strickland is taking more jumpers inside the arc and has done a so-so job of converting. He gets nice elevation on his jumper to get shots off, but his form isn't pretty.

On the other end, the way Rodney Purvis has came on as a freshman with great defense is impressive. He also runs the court very well, leaking out in transition like a wide receiver. Offensively, he can hit the jumper and get by defenders with a nice first step. He has a floater that he can utilize as well.

SFs

Rasheed Sulaimon
Reggie Bullock
TJ Warren
Milton Jennings
Okaro White

Sulaimon is a shooting guard, but plays a lot of small forward in Duke's offense. The UNC/Duke games are always interesting for a multitude of reasons, but as a draft enthusiast, Im looking forward to see how Sulaimon fares against the older Bullock.

Milton Jennings has improved his jumper and looks comfortable out on the perimeter in his senior year. It seems like he has been around forever. He actually is pretty smooth shooting off the dribble, but his strength holds him back from being much of a force. He struggles to get where he wants to on the court and still gets pushed around.

PFs

CJ Leslie
Ryan Kelly
James Michael McAdoo
Kenny Kadji

All four of these power forwards are face up types and generally avoid contact, but they are all very different. Kelly has the best basketball IQ and a complete skillset, but is an awful rebounding big. CJ Leslie is the most physically talented, but lacks any sense of the game. James Michael McAdoo has a great feel AND athleticism, but has been extremely soft and turnover prone. And Kadji flashes some guard skills, but will be 25 by draft night!

Leslie vs McAdoo will be must watch games and could help McAdoo's stock. He will get a chance to show he can hang with an athlete like Leslie, while being the much smarter player. UNC better have someone step up at the center position though, or else McAdoo may be getting abused by Richard Howell all night instead.

Cs

Alex Len
Mason Plumlee
Richard Howell
Reggie Johnson

All four of these guys could end up getting draft this year and all are heading into conference play with their heads held high. Plumlee has injected himself into player of the year conversations, Len has been talked about as a top 5 pick, Howell has been NCSU's best player, and Johnson has lost weight and been impressive in the early going. Now with conference play, each will have a chance to prove themselves.

Len vs Plumlee will be huge - but what about Howell going up against them? Howell has the ability to shut either of them done and bully them. Howell has the most to gain heading into conference play. For Alex Len, he has the most to lose. He improved a lot over the offseason, but he still has only had one good game against NBA caliber big men - and they were playing in their first ever college game! He will be expected to continue to produce consistently against the ACC and that is no sure thing.

Top Ten Defenders

1. Michael Snaer
2. Reggie Bullock
3. Richard Howell
4. Durand Scott
5. Mason Plumlee
6. Dez White
7. Ian Miller
8. Rasheed Sulaimon
9. Reggie Johnson
10. Dexter Strickland


Top Ten Shooters

1. Scott Wood
2. Seth Curry
3. Erick Green
4. Reggie Bullock
5. Ryan Kelly
6. CJ Harris
7. PJ Hairston
8. Quinn Cook
9. Marcus Paige
10. Shane Larkin

All Freshman Team

Marcus Paige
Rodney Purvis
Rasheed Sulaimon
TJ Warren
Charles Mitchell

Seth Allen
Justin Anderson
Marcus Georges-Hunt
Robert Carter
Joel James (Over Brice Johnson because I think James is more ready for ACC play)


Top 25 NBA Prospects (young players with limited playing time omitted)

1. James Michael McAdoo
2. Rasheed Sulaimon
3. Alex Len
4. Mason Plumlee
5. Richard Howell
6. TJ Warren
7. Dez Wells
8. Michael Snaer
9. Lorenzo Brown
10. CJ Leslie
11. Marcus Paige
12. Rodney Purvis
13. Durand Scott
14. Erick Green
15. Joel James
16. Reggie Johnson
17. Ryan Kelly
18. PJ Hairston
19. Seth Curry
20. Kenny Kadji
21. Ian Miller
22. Travis McKie
23. Milton Jennings
24. Daniel Miller
25. Dexter Strickland

Saturday, December 22, 2012

Saturday's Big Games and a Recap of Last Night 12/22/12

South Florida played a thrilling triple overtime game against Bowling Green, allowing for an extensive look at sophomore guard Anthony Collins. Victor Rudd also had a huge game for the Bulls, coming up clutch in multiple occasions.

There is no way Anthony Collins is 6 feet and he doesn't have great length. What he does have is a great understanding of how to use his size. He gets really low when dribbling the ball, shrinking to about 4 feet. Last night, he was able to get inside of the zone and keep defenders behind him using his body. He doesnt look to get all the way to the hoop, just enough to create a good look for a teammate or for his own teardrop. Collins' preference is to find a teammate though, as he's a classic pass first point guard who knows how to lead a team and defend. He looks to push the ball when the opportunity is there but knows when to slow down and set the offense. He's a small point guard coaches love and trust, one of those scrappy southern point guards in the mold of Squeaky Johnson and Walker Russell Jr. Both players have been able to get some run in the NBA even though they aren't necessarily NBA quality because coaches trust them and enjoy having them during practices.


Jarnell Stokes had an average game against Western Carolina, scoring 12 points. He was out-muscled in the paint by Tawaski King, but eventually got him in foul trouble. Tennessee's offense has been terrible and Stokes hasn't been able to be much of an inside-out threat. He's had 1 multiple assist game in his last 9 contests.

Alex Len did what he was supposed to do against an undersized Stony Brook team. Maryland was able to dump in into the post to him, and without a double team, he went to work. They made it a point to feature him at the beginning of both halves although they got away from him in the final ten minutes of the game. Dez Wells was impressive yet again. He's a big talent.

Baylor vs BYU

- Brandon Davies was tough inside, but struggled getting his shot off against an NBA sized frontcourt. Too often he tried to fadeaway from them instead of going into their body. Davies has a solid post game with counter moves, and shows good patience in using them.

- Isaiah Austin got called for the biggest phantom call of the year, costing him his 6th block in the game. I think there is a misconception that Austin is soft - he doesn't shy away from contact, he just can't withstand it. He is willing to mix it up on the glass and on defense. The problem is that his shoulders don't appear to welcome much weight in the future.

- I really like Cory Jefferson's motor. I was surprised he wasn't asked to cover Davies the majority of the game. Jefferson is a beast on the boards and moves really well. Not only is he capable of moving well - he does. He runs full speed from point A to point B at all times. Whether it is to set a screen, grab a rebound, rotation on defense - Jefferson is always in a hurry to get there.

- Tyler Haws is very fun to watch. He has a great BBIQ and does a great job of getting open. He reminds me of a wing version of Matt Bouldin, but is certainly a one of a kind player.


Temple vs Syracuse 12pm ESPN2

Syracuse has been playing nothing but cupcakes this month so this Temple team could provide a test. They have some big guards - their smallest rotational guard is 6'2'' - that can actually have a somewhat fair shot against Michael Carter-Williams. MCW has been playing against teams where he is longer than the oppositions center so that is refreshing. Along with Alex Len, Carter-Williams has the most to prove when conference play starts. Everyone has already jumped on his and Len's bandwagon already, but both have played only 1 or 2 legitimate games. If they sustain their level of performance through conference play, I may be ready to give them more credit.

Murray State at Dayton 12pm CBSSN

This is a big game for Dayton as they are coming off of a heartbreaking loss against Illinois State. It should be a good one against Isaiah Canaan and company. Canaan has been very good again this season and Im still very much intrigued by how his scoring will translate in the NBA. I don't expect him to ever start at point guard, but he could have a nice career scoring as a poor man's Jason Terry. As for Ed Daniel, he is the closest thing you will get to Kenneth Faried in this draft. He impressed in the summer playing with big time college players and has parlayed that into a excellent senior season so far.

American at Georgetown 12pm ESPN3

McNeese State at North Carolina 12pm ESPNU

USC at Georgia 1:30pm

Interesting to note: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has tallied at least 9 rebounds in each of his last 3 games. Its good to see him playing hard through this nightmare of a season. I've never doubted Caldwell-Pope's energy. but the old adage "work smart, not hard" could apply to the sophomore shooting guard. He makes a lot of freshman mistakes. Another note - their second leading scorer averages 7.2 point per game. Ew. USC isn't much better and is led by Eric Wise's 10.6 ppg. Dewayne Dedmon is the Trojan to watch though. USC does a terrible job getting him touches on offense, but his defense and rebounding has been solid. He's 7 feet tall so he's in the running to get drafted in the second round this year.

Texas at Michigan State 2pm ESPN2

Texas beat up on North Carolina inside this week, now they are back to trying not to get beaten up themselves. Michigan State is far from UNC inside with Nix, Payne, and Dawson controlling the glass. Keith Appling needs to get back on track in this game. He has failed to score in double digits his last 3 games vs Division 1 opponents.

LSU at Marquette 2pm ESPNU

Florida State vs Charlotte 2pm CBSSN

Arizona State at Texas Tech 2pm

South Dakota State at New Mexico 2:30pm

Nate Wolters was hurt the last time they played a ranked team and this his last chance to pull off a big upset in his regular season career. The Jackrabbits start conference play after this one. Wolters has still been nursing his injury, but has gotten plenty of rest on SDSU's bus trip across the country to Albuquerque. Kendall Williams is a good point guard in his own right so this should be a good matchup.

Austin Peay at Illinois State 3pm

St. Mary's at Northern Iowa 3pm

St. Bonaventure at North Carolina St 3pm ESPN3

Wright State at Cincinnati 4pm

Kansas at Ohio State 4pm CBS

The biggest game of the day surprisingly has Ohio State favored by 5.5 points in Vegas. The Buckeyes have homecourt, but Kansas is the better team. Kevin Young and Travis Releford both are smart defenders who are up for the task of slowing down Deshaun Thomas. Nobody will stop Thomas, but they can make him have to hit tough shots. The key matchup in this one is at point guard play. Elijah Johnson has been getting by strictly as a guy bringing the ball up the court - not someone creating offense. Kansas is going to need him to be more of a point guard today and facing Aaron Craft, it won't be easy. If Ohio State manages to win this game - it will be because Craft got the better of Johnson.

Marshall at Kentucky 4pm

Missouri vs Illinois 6pm ESPN2

If Missouri wins this game, their advantage inside will be the reason. Laurence Bowers has been great this season, showing a much more mature offensive game then in previous seasons. He has worked his way into the draft conversation as a second round pick. Oriakhi, Pressey, and Paul are others to watch.

San Diego State vs San Francisco 6pm ESPNU

Bucknell at Princeton 7pm

Davidson at Drexel 8pm

Florida vs Kansas State 8pm ESPN2

Western Kentucky vs Louisville 8:30pm ESPNU

Canisius at UNLV 10pm

Arizona vs East Tennessee State 10:30pm ESPNU

Fresno State at UCLA 11pm Pac-12N

Miami (FL) at Hawaii 12:30am ESPNU

Sunday, December 16, 2012

2013 NBA Mock Draft

New 2013 NBA Mock. I didn't factor in any international players into the second round because I haven't studied many of them yet. Plus, I'd like to put in as many collegiate players as possible into the mocks. Team needs are loosely taken into account - moreso near the top of the draft.

Players leaving/staying were made at my own discretion and are purely speculation.

1. Charlotte Bobcats - FR Archie Goodwin, SG, Kentucky

The first overall pick is up for grabs. Honestly - try doing a mock draft right now. Each pick in the top 5 you question yourself if the player is worth that high of a selection. At this point, nobody has earned much. Goodwin has outstanding physical gifts and a knack for scoring and getting to the line. The Bobcats will need a scoring wing to pair with MGK if they ever want to win.

2. Cleveland Cavaliers - FR Nerlens Noel, C, Kentucky

Noel has been a mixed bag this year. If you had Anthony Davis level expectations you would be disappointed. If you were like me and had a lot of questions with his game - you should be seeing some reasons to be optimistic. Noel isn't as smart or as tough as Davis on defense, but is still making tons of plays and rebounding the ball. He has shown good energy and better body language than he did in high school. Offensively, he is raw but sports a positive assist to turnover ratio. He can get to the rim but needs to finish stronger and more under control.

3. Toronto Raptors - FR Anthony Bennett, PF, UNLV

Bennett has been dominant his freshman season thus far and will take on a even bigger role with Moser out. He does a good job setting screens and getting open off of them - showing a nice mid-range and deep jumper. He can also face up and get to the rim where he finishes with authority. He shows a post game but needs to get better at utilizing his big frame. Defensively you can say the same thing - he projects as just a solid defender - but has been a great rebounder.

Toronto is ready to end the Bargnani era and Bennett would spell the end of that. Bennett would fit well in their pick and roll offense and give them a different look from it than what Valanciunas presents. Also, Toronto wouldn't mind having a Canadian on their roster - and would hope to add another one the following year (Wiggins).

4. Washington Wizards - SO Cody Zeller, F/C, Indiana

Zeller has been great this year for #1 Indiana, but that has not lifted the concerns about his length and explosiveness. Zeller can look very average at times in the post when he can't create separation. He struggles to get his own shot and finish near the hoop. Zeller's outstanding skill level, footwork, and energy still make him a nice prospect - just not an elite one.

5. Phoenix Suns - 1992 Rudy Gobert, C, Cholet

Gobert just recently announced that he would like to play in the NBA next year. He's a project but has the size and athleticism to turn out to be a good one.

6. Sacramento Kings - FR Marcus Smart, PG, Oklahoma State

Smart is one of my favorite players in this draft and a leader who can step in and turn the culture of a team around. He possesses natural leadership skills, great athleticism and size, and a advanced understanding of how to change speeds. Smart is a stat stuffer who helps out in all areas of the game and has the ability to be either a great scorer or facilitator at the point guard spot.

7. New Orleans Hornets - FR Shabazz Muhammad, SG, UCLA

Muhammad has struggled early on and needs to turn it up soon. He had an injury and missed practice so its understandable, but as the season goes on that excuse will go away. And the UCLA excuse doesnt work for me - it was much more evident it was the system that was holding back Westbrook and Holiday. For Muhammad its his lack of ball handling skills and ability to create separation. He has to work very hard for each bucket and relies too much on his strength and energy. Defensively, he looks slow and out of shape.

8. Detroit Pistons - SO Otto Porter, SF, Georgetown

Porter has been great for Georgetown and his most impressive revelation for his stock so far has been his shooting ability. His high IQ, defense, passing skills, and toughness were known - but his silky smooth jumper from the mid-range area has now started progressing into a solid 3-pt shot. For a guy with average explosiveness for a lottery wing, his ability to knock down the jumper is crucial for his offensive success.

9. Orlando Magic - SO Michael Carter-Williams, PG, Syracuse

Carter-Williams is the most dynamic player on the board at this point and offers a lot to be excited about. He also offers a lot of questions. Is he mature and a good enough leader to run the point? Can he get into the paint and finish with contact? How will he defend outside of the 2-3 zone? Will he fare better than the last couple of Syracuse players? His height is helping mask a lot of his weaknesses at this point. I still like him though and as Syracuse plays tougher opponents the answers to these questions will become more clear. The one concern I dont have that most actually do is his shooting - he has always had a good touch and its starting to come along the past few games.

10. Houston Rockets - FR Glenn Robinson III, SF, Michigan

The hype on Glenn Robinson III hasn't gotten rolling yet with him stuck next to two ball dominant guards. And perhaps that is best for him - like the rest of the SFs in this draft, GRIII isn't a guy who wants to be "the guy". He's perfectly content playing his role - knocking down jumpers, rebounding, and playing defense. The thing is, he has been incredibly efficient doing it so far as a freshman on one of the best teams in the nation. You can easily carve out a long NBA career doing what he is done so far.

11. Philadelphia 76ers - FR Ben McLemore, SG, Kansas

McLemore has already stepped into the main scoring role for the Jayhawks and he hasn't even started hitting threes yet. McLemore does a great job getting open for shots off screens and sneaks in for backdoor alley-oop plays every now and then to show off his athleticism. He has the size, athleticism, and the shooting ability for the shooting guard position. He is kind of like Bradley Beal last year in the sense that it is tough to go wrong with him. His floor seems like a solid starter and he offer the potential to be one of the better shooting guards in the game. He could end up going in the top 5.

12. Portland Trailblazers - SR CJ McCollum, G, Lehigh

CJ McCollum has lived up to his senior hype in the scoring column - already going off for 30+ points a couple of times. He gets good separation for his jumpshot with his crossover and has silky smooth body control when going up for his shot. McCollum is a great shooter and projects as instant offense off the bench at the next level. He isn't the athlete that Portland's Damian Lillard is and it prevents him from being the playmaker Lillard is. I don't think McCollum will make the full transition to point guard, but will be able to run it off the bench. He is a student of the game and a very hard worker.

13. Dallas Mavericks - FR Alex Poythress, F, Kentucky

With his near 70% field goal shooting and 0.6/3 assist to turnover ratio, its clear just looking at the stats that Poythress is much more of a power forward right now. Poythress is able to defend multiple positions well which is a big part of his appeal and if you can defend the perimeter like he can then there is hope that he can make the transition on offense. Even if he doesn't, Poythress has enough size to be a combo forward in the NBA and the attitude and work ethic that will keep him in the league. He's not a top 5 pick though. I don't see it in his skillset and its definitely not his type of mentality. He went to Kentucky so he didn't have to be "the guy" - Poythress prefers to be a role player.

14. Los Angeles Lakers (to Phoenix) - SO James Michael McAdoo, PF, North Carolina

Everyone is well aware of McAdoo's struggles this year in his new role. The biggest problem with him has been his strength. He is getting pushed around inside, has been unable to get under control, and it is causing a lot of turnovers. He isn't the physical presence North Carolina needs him to be. He still shows good upside on offense thanks to his ability to move without the ball, his quickness, and his soft touch. If he gets stronger, I also think he will be able to start showing a forming post game. Defensively he is smart and is able to draw charges with his quick feet, but doesn't prove to be much of a threat. And he gets pushed around on the glass.

15. Indiana Pacers - SO Trey Burke, PG, Michigan

Trey Burke has followed up his impressive freshman season with another one so far - leading Michigan to an undefeated record. Burke has drawn comparisons to a poor man's Chris Paul and its accurate. He is a balanced point guard, able to both distribute and score. He has a high BBIQ and takes the team and the game on his shoulders. He understands Michigan's complex offense so well. He can overdribble at times and does need to be more of a factor on defense. The only thing holding him back from a top ten selection is his athleticism. And averaging a combined 4.7 rebounds/blocks/and steals brings up some concerns among stat junkies.

16. Milwaukee Bucks - SO Alex Len, C, Maryland

The hype around Alex Len right now reminds me of the Kosta Koufos hype when he first got to Ohio State. Legit seven footer with offensive skills, blocks shots, can hit the jumper and score with his back to the basket. Its an intriguing set of skills for sure, but the most important factor for centers in today's NBA is defense. That is how you get on the court. Len is a good shot blocker (he is more explosive than Koufos), but lacks an understanding and commitment on the defensive end. Besides Kentucky, Maryland hasn't played in any big games so Len is still living off the hype from his first game. But come ACC play he will have to earn the top 5 billing analysts are placing on him.

17. Boston Celtics - SO Tony Mitchell, F, North Texas

I just wrote about Mitchell and this part of the draft would be a good spot for him. His production hasn't been the best up to this point. He might be the best athlete in the draft, but seems to have false beliefs that he is a small forward. If he commits to power forward, he can be very good. Its a high risk/high reward situation in the lottery. It this spot, it would be all reward.

18. Minnesota Timberwolves (to Phoenix) - SR Mason Plumlee, F/C, Duke

Wrote this recently - "There is part of me that wants to rank Plumlee lower, but its tough with the season he is having. He very well could be National Player of the Year this season and his stock should start soaring. It won't surprise me if he ends up in the lottery. I don't want to split hairs though with his ranking - my main point is if I were a GM, I'd spend my top 20 pick somewhere else. I'd much rather take Jeff Withey outside the top 20 then spend a top 20 pick on Mason. Nothing against him, he's having a great season, I just question how it all translates to the next level. His offense is a lot of face up looks, but he can't shoot. He relies on the drive, but its going to be hard to keep NBA defenses honest if he can't consistent hit the 15 footer. And his post game is still based on his athleticism. And he doesn't even establish deep post position enough to take advantage of it."

19. Utah Jazz - JR Ray McCallum, PG, Detroit

McCallum is an underrated prospect. CJ McCollum gets all the hype because of his scoring, but all Ray McCallum has done this season is prove he can suddenly switch from a point guard to shot hunter to provide his team with much needed scoring. He isn't as good at it as McCollum but McCallum also isn't a combo guard. He is a pure point who has proven he knows how to lead a team and create shots for his teammates. McCallum looks like a sure bet to be at least a top backup point guard, but could easily turn into a solid starter.

20. Denver Nuggets - SR Jeff Withey, C, Kansas

Withey is leading a suffocating Kansas defense. I wrote this recently -

"The second best senior? It sounds weird, but Withey has an elite ability to affect games on the defensive end that should make him a good player in the pros. He moves so fluidly for a 7 footer and gets off the court quickly. He has been Kansas's best player so far, even becoming more of a threat on offense. Kansas can't get much penetration so Withey has been a key factor on offense - being relied upon as a part of their inside/out game. He has shown quick moves in the post and has been more aggressive this season. Withey isn't the most talented senior, but he might be the surest bet to walk onto a NBA team and contribute right away."

21, Golden State Warriors (to Utah) - SR Jackie Carmichael, PF, Illinois State

Jackie Carmichael has been a huge revelation to me this year. He has a prototypical body for a four man and is more explosive than he looks. He's actually extremely nimble on his feet and does a great job defending pick and rolls on the perimeter. He plays the game offensively like a 10 year NBA vet - setting good screens, showing great patience in the post, hitting from mid-range, and cleaning the offensive boards. He is a good passer and has a post game. At this point, it wouldn't be crazy to call him the most NBA ready power foward in the draft.

22. Brooklyn Nets - JR Andre Roberson, PF, Colorado

Roberson has looked bad this year trying to show his perimeter skills and that is taking away all the attention from what he can do. He is still posting great rebounding numbers and generating a ton of blocks and steals. He isn't a small foward, but would that have even been the best fit for him? He can be a poor man's Marion off the bench.

23. Chicago Bulls - JR Gorgui Dieng, C, Louisville

Dieng has been out the last month with a broken wrist and he has been missed - not only for his great defense, but for his offense. Dieng is a big help facilitating the offense from the post and had flipped his turnover ratio upside down from previous years. He should be back in the next couple of weeks.

24. Atlanta Hawks - SO BJ Young, SG, Arkansas

Young has proven to be one of the better one on one players in college basketball when it comes to getting to the rim. He has excellent body control and footwork on his way to the rim and is able to manipulate his way through defenders and hang in the air to finish with contact. While his ability to get to the basket and finish is elite, his shooting has taken a step back this year and he isn't getting a chance to show his ability to run the point guard in Arkansas' 3 guard offense.

25. Memphis Grizzlies (to Minnesota) - JR Reggie Bullock, G/F, North Carolina

With North Carolina struggling, it is easy to sour on their top prospects and place the blame on them. And you can knock Bullock for his aggressiveness - only getting to the line 1.4 times a game. But that isnt his game and isnt what he will be expected to do in the NBA. He cant carry UNC, but in terms of doing the little things, he continues to show elite qualities of a role player. His 3-pt shot is hitting at an all time high, as he's making 43% from behind the arc, and it looks great coming out of his hand. His assists and steals are also up. He could be an immediate contributor to a playoff team.

26. Miami Heat (to Cleveland) - SO LeBryan Nash, SF, Oklahoma State

LeBryan Nash is an interesting player. He struggled last year trying to show off his perimeter skills and has made it a point this year to play more inside and get to the free throw line. He's getting to the line nearly 2.5 times per game more than his freshman year. Operating inside of 18 feet, he has looked nearly unstoppable and has shown a variety of different ways to hurt the opposition. He has also shown solid court vision but his A/TO is hurt by his propensity to force things and take bad shots. Defensively, Nash has a reputation as a stopper but struggles to keep quicker perimeter players in front of him. He might be stuck in between positions like an Al Thornton type but if he blossoms, he could be the next Caron Butler.

27. Los Angeles Clippers - JR Victor Oladipo, G/F, Indiana

Oladipo has been arguably Indiana's best player this season while turning himself into some kind of folk hero. His defense is something that can't be captured in a scouting report - nor can his energy. He has Tony Allen-type defense skills. And his defense has turned into quick offense for him, enabling him to get out on the break for big thunderous dunks while showcasing his elite athleticism. He is shooting a ridiculous 65% from the field this year - up from just 47% the year before. I predicted a breakout year from Oladipo, but the season he is having is something special.

28. New York Knicks - JR Patric Young, F/C, Florida

After two subpar years, Patric Young has started to show some signs of life this season - upping his rebound totals and finally blocking some shots. Still, he needed a early season benching to jumpstart him and after last night's game, it looks like he could be starting to get too comfortable again. He has a NBA body and moves his feet well defensively, so he should at least be a solid big off the bench in the league. I highly doubt at this point he will ever become anything more.

29. San Antonio Spurs - 1994 Dario Saric, F, Cibona Zagreb

Saric's season is just getting underway.

30. Oklahoma City Thunder - JR Mike Moser, F, UNLV

Mike Moser got off to a shaky start this year before getting hurt. It was an adjustment for him to get used to playing with Anthony Bennett and when he comes back this time, he will also have to adjust to playing with Khem Birch. Bennett has taken over as the star of the Rebels and Birch will play center, so Moser will have a chance to focus on playing the perimeter.

31. Charlotte Bobcats (to Oklahoma City) - JR CJ Leslie, PF, North Carolina State

Leslie continues to be a mixed bag for the Wolfpack, looking like a guy who will never grow to "get it". This is his junior year and at this time, he should be dominating competition with his athleticism alone. Yet that hasn't been the case as NC State has been a disappointment and Leslie is stuck in neutral. He still lacks any reliable way to score on offense and doesn't play smart defense. And he has failed to provide any kind of leadership on a NC State team begging for a leader - he instead plays more like a freshman than Purvis, Lewis, or Warren.

32. Cleveland Cavaliers - SR Elijah Johnson, PG, Kansas

I was so busy trying to point out Elijah Johnson's weaknesses over the summer - saying he won't be able to be "the guy", he isn't aggressive, he doesnt get to the rim - to recognize his strengths and what he can bring to a team. Elijah Johnson is a shot maker and also has a great physical profile on defense. He is excellent off the catch and shoot once he gets his feet get set. I still question his ability to take advantage of his defensive attributes, as he has never shown good awareness. But this season that hasn't been as apparent with him guarding the oppositions point guard more. His main trouble was defending off ball and understanding how to see "ball" and "man" at all times. Johnson really needs to get to the line more though - 1.4 times a game won't cut it. He's perfectly capable.

33. Toronto Raptors - JR Jamaal Franklin, SG, San Diego State

Franklin is a guy who coaches will love one second and hate the next. He tries to do everything on offense even though he is limited by his ball handling abilities. He turns it over a lot and takes a lot of bad shots. But he also works very hard, rebounds like a big man, and can score in bunches. He is a highlight reel finisher and is a streaky outside shooter. Right now, he needs to get his 3-pt% back up because that will need to be a big part of his game in the NBA. Being a 23% 3-pt shooter will have him averaging 20ppg in the D-League real quick.

34. Washington Wizards - SR Michael Snaer, SG, Florida State
35. Phoenix Suns - SR Brandon Paul, G, Illinois
36. Sacramento Kings - SR Rodney Williams, F, Minnesota
37. New Orleans Hornets (to Philadelphia) - JR Phil Pressey, PG, Missouri
38. Detroit Pistons - JR Tim Hardaway Jr, SG, Michigan
39. Orlando Magic (to Cleveland) - SO Jarnell Stokes, PF, Tennessee
40. Houston Rockets - SO Myck Kabongo, PG, Texas
41. Philadelphia 76ers - JR Deshaun Thomas, SF, Ohio State
42. Portland Trailblazers (to Denver) - SR Richard Howell, PF, North Carolina State
43. Dallas Mavericks - SR Nate Wolters, PG, South Dakota State
44. Los Angeles Lakers - SR Erick Green, G, Virginia Tech
45, Indiana Pacers - JR Aaron Craft, PG, Ohio State
46. Milwaukee Bucks - SR James Ennis, SF, Long Beach State
47. Boston Celtics (to Portland) - JR CJ Wilcox, SG, Washington
48. Minnesota Timberwolves (to Portland) - SO Rakeem Christmas, F/C, Syracuse
49. Utah Jazz - JR Russ Smith, G, Louisville
50. Denver Nuggets (to Phoenix) - JR CJ Fair, F, Syracuse
51, Golden State Warriors (to Orlando) - SR Robert Covington, F, Tennessee State
52. Brooklyn Nets (to Minnesota) - JR Sean Kilpatrick, SG, Cincinnati
53. Chicago Bulls - JR Lorenzo Brown, PG, North Carolina State
54. Atlanta Hawks - SO Ryan Harrow, PG, Kentucky
55. Memphis Grizzlies - SR Ryan Kelly, PF, Duke
56. Miami Heat - SR Lawrence Bowers, PF, Missouri
57. Los Angeles Clippers (to Detroit) - SR Jamelle Hagins, F/C, Delaware
58. New York Knicks (to Washington) - SR Kenny Boynton, G, Florida
59. San Antonio Spurs - SR Trevor Mbawke, PF, Minnesota
60. Oklahoma City Thunder (to Minnesota) - SR Solomon Hill, SF, Arizona

Top Undrafted:

Durant Scott
DeWayne Dedmon
Elias Harris
Jack Cooley
Amath M'Baye
Reggie Johnson
Mike Muscala
Gregory Echenique
Brock Motum
Kenny Kadji

Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Preview of Tonight's Action

Tonight marks the start of the ACC/Big Ten Challenge and with all the conference re-alignment, maybe one of the last as its going to start getting hard to keep track of which teams are actually in these conferences.

Games to Watch:

Indiana vs North Carolina 9:30 ESPN

Why not get this one out of the way first? James Michael McAdoo vs Cody Zeller. Two guys that could use a big game to get momentum moving in their direction again. At this point, McAdoo is facing questions about his post skills while Zeller has detractors saying he can't create separation. Both do have nice feel and footwork in the post and that should be on display tonight.

Zeller will have to deal with an athletic North Carolina frontline and also Joel James' monster frame. Don't expect Zeller and McAdoo to be matched up a lot.

McAdoo will likely be on Christian Watford most of the time, a guy he should be able to back down a little. McAdoo was quoted in SI today saying he has been focused more on footwork instead of trying to back down anyone, but tonight would be a good night to try to show some toughness against Watford.

Watford will drag him out to the perimeter and force McAdoo to show his perimeter defense skills. Some actually think McAdoo can play some small forward at the next level, but I highly doubt it.

I'm also interested in seeing Reggie Bullock against Victor Oladipo, two energy small forwards I am really high on. Both play great defense and run the court, but their offensive games couldn't be more different. It will be interesting to see how they compete against each other as they should cover one another.

Finally, it may be Jordan Hulls and PJ Hairston that steal the headlines from the big names. Hairston has came on strong as of late and always looks to shoot when he's in. Hulls is extremely tough and a great leader - one of the best in the country. He's slowly developing a reputation as Indiana's go to guy in big games and could steal the headlines.

North Carolina State vs Michigan 7:30 ESPN

Leading the night off for ESPN will be a matchup that may actually feature more future pros than its nightcap. We have Trey Burke vs Lorenzo Brown, both of whom could be drafted in the first round. Lorenzo Brown has already been abused by the younger Marcus Smart this season and can't afford to get worked again. It may be in the cards though, as Burke has been carving up defenses since he's stepped on campus. With the emergence of other scorers, Im interested to see if Burke starts to vanilla down his game more and turn into more of a facilitator. He can dominate the ball at times.

On the wings, Hardaway Jr is coming off one of the best stretches of his career and Glenn Robinson III looks like a real stud. Hardaway will see a lot of freshman Rodney Purvis, who has been one of the bright spots for NC State early on. He has played with great energy and should present a solid test for Hardaway.

Glenn Robinson III may get a chance to step up into a bigger role tonight if he draws Scott Wood on offense. Robinson has taken a back seat to Michigan's backcourt, but has been very efficient in his chances. A chance to see Robinson III take advantage of Wood in an increased workload would be nice.

Robinson may also see some TJ Warren who has joined Purvis as the lone bright spots for NC State. Warren just has a knack for scoring and getting easy baskets around the hoop. He also has great touch on his jumper. He's one to watch out for down the road.

Inside, Michigan has a very smart frontcourt that could use CJ Leslie's aggressiveness against him. Jordan Morgan and Mitch McGary move their feet well and understand defensive positioning. Leslie could be in for a long night. Richard Howell is usually solid.

One thing to watch for is Michigan's pick and roll defense. They are very aggressive in their hedging and take the ball out of the ball handlers hand, but leave themselves vulnerable to other open players. NC State has shot 3s at a better than 40% clip this season thanks to Scott Wood and Rodney Purvis. If Lorenzo Brown runs the point like he should (which he hasn't) and finds the open man off of picks, NC State has a chance at the upset.

This is a big game for Brown who has found his stock dropping quickly so far. He's talented but has shown terrible decision making and a lack of leadership. From an upperclassman, that is unacceptable.

Minnesota vs Florida State 7:15 ESPN2

Minnesota vaulted themselves into the top 25 after a solid showing in the Battle 4 Atlantis. Florida State has started to play better after opening the season with an ugly loss to South Alabama. Both teams can get after it on defense and it starts with Michael Snaer and Rodney Williams, two of the better players in the country.

And while they can really get after it on defense, its the offensive end where they will need to show what they can do tonight. Snaer has been great at getting to the line all year and I'd like to see him do it against a strong perimeter defense and the always lurking Williams. For Rodney, Id just like to see him continue to hit jumpers and attack aggressively from the perimeter. We know his skills aren't great, but he's done a nice job putting his athleticism to use this year.

There are some other marginal prospects in this game - Ian Miller, Andre Hollins, Austin Hollins, and Okaro White - and they all should have some chances to go up against each other. Andre Hollins just dropped 41 points on Memphis and he should be over the hangover of elated-ness that caused him to only score 8 against Stanford.

Also, Trevor Mbakwe will be continued to be monitored to see how his athleticism is coming along. He's coming off the best game of his young season.

Also check out Maryland's Alex Len take on Northwestern and Pittsburgh and Steven Adams against Howard. Maryland has been playing well and should get the win, but Alex Len hasn't had another game that has rivaled his opening performance against Kentucky.

Adams received criticism for his recent play, but its all part of a process. Adams wasn't any worse than he was when I wrote about him at the start of the year, he just went up against some tougher competition. He actually has been showing noticeable improvements each game.

His 13 points in 24 minutes last game against Delaware are misleading as most of his points came in the final minutes, but the confidence that it gives him could be big. Adams was able to hit a jumper and finish in transition and off of a pick and roll. He showed the flashes that make his potential so mouth watering. Facing Howard tonight is good timing, as Dixon can use this game to focus on building off that confidence Adams gained from last game. I expect tonight to be the best chance to see what Adam's is capable of doing so far. He is going to continue to get better each game. His stock is fine.  

Friday, November 9, 2012

Opening Night Thoughts - Len vs Noel and more

College hoops officially got underway tonight and while two marque games were canceled due to condensation, there was still plenty of hoops to be digested. The biggest game of the night was between Kentucky and Maryland - both teams supporting new looks, both with uniforms and players, and plenty of talent. The matchup to watch was Alex Len vs Nerlens Noel.

After watching a fair share of Noel in high school, I had let it known that I thought Noel was overrated and I had my concerns about him. Heading into this game, it looked like the perfect setup for Maryland's Alex Len to take advantage of Noel's reputation and dominate him in order to generate hype of his own. I predicted that Len would outplay him and end up being the story. Besides a former walk-on grabbing the headlines, that is exactly what happened.

Noel started off the game with a little hook shot over Len, but quickly got into foul trouble. Len was noticeably bigger and stronger than last year, especially his lower body. His shoulders are still slim, but he was able to hold his position on the low block and go to work. He showed off a very nice offensive repertoire including face up jumpers, turnaround Js, reverse layups, and solid footwork while looking nothing like a 7 foot 2 player. On defense he still struggled to make his presence felt, but all in all, it was a terrific start of the season for Len.

Keep in mind, that Len had to sit out the first 10 games of last season and didn't even know the English language. The situation he was in is hard to imagine for a teenager in a completely new surrounding. Just getting adjusted to America was tough enough - much less succeed playing basketball. This year, his English is much better and that in itself is half the battle. His defense is still behind but it is hard to ask a guy to add 30 pounds, learn a new language, AND improve his defense all in the span of an offseason. Len's development is coming along just fine - he is no longer a stick figure.

As for Noel, after his opening bucket his offensive looks came few and far between. He sat out much of the first half after getting a quick bucket and blocked shot. He only had one more bucket the entire game and his 0-3 at the FT line resulted in him finishing the night with 4 points. Still, this Noel looked much more discipline than the high school one. He didn't look towards the refs constantly and gone are the days where he stands around the 3-pt line looking to drive the lane. No, Noel seems to have bought into the idea that he is a defensive anchor first and foremost. Its a good sign heading forward even if tonights game was subpar.

As for the other Kentucky freshman, they had their up and downs. Goodwin showed off his great first step and scoring instincts and finished with 16 points - 9 of them from the line. He is always in attack mode and looks like UK's go to player on offense. He was out of control at multiple points during the game though and Coach Cal will need to reign him in. Calipari has compared him to Tyreke Evans.

Poythress was second on the team in rebounding, but otherwise had an uneventful night. He battled foul trouble and only played 23 minutes. Also facing a battle was Ryan Harrow, who had been sick with the flu. He caught a lot of flack for his terrible play in only ten minutes tonight, but we will wait and see how he is moving forward. Certainly not a good start for him.

Kentucky's leading scorer was Kyle Wiltjer, who played with more confidence than he had a year ago. He knocked down 4 good looks from deep and also did a little bit in the post and off the dribble. He is a matchup problem for any big man at this level.

The comparison of Ryan Anderson has been mentioned for Wiltjer but I think Anderson was a better rebounder and post player. Wiltjer does more facing up and off the dribble at this stage. When I think of guys who play like Anderson, I think of Duke's Ryan Kelly who I happened to watch a bit of tonight against Georgia State.

Mason Plumlee also caught my eye in that game with his energy. Plumlee may have never expected to be playing his senior year at Duke, but he appears to want to make the most of it. He should be on a mission this season.

Friday, September 28, 2012

Because We Cant Wait for College Basketball Season

I am incredibly antsy for this college basketball season to start. It has been a long offseason that has been  aided by watching old games, but I am ready to see the kind of strides teams and players have made during the summer. I am ready to fill up my DVR to max capacity, watch as many games as possible every night, bombard your twitter feeds with live-tweets, and update this site with brand new content. I just really want to get the ball rolling to where there will be tons of new information each and every week, if not everyday. I am simply unable to contain myself from pouring over the schedule and pinpointing early season matchups that I will be sure to break down. Starting with November 9th, the first day of the season, there are plenty of interesting games. The first night will be no warm up, we will be jumping in head first.

Starting at 5:30, we have Michigan State taking on Connecticut. The main storyline here will be the new face on the sideline, Kevin Ollie, but this is also a chance to see some new faces. Two years ago, I remember watching freshman Jeremy Lamb playing in his first game and hopped on his bandwagon right away. This year it could be one of two freshman shooting guards breaking out - Omar Calhoun of UConn or Gary Harris at Michigan State. Both figure to play key roles in their teams game plans from day one.

It will also be our first chance to see Keith Appling this year. He will be expected to become a playmaker for the Spartans, something he didn't do much of last year. Early returns will be telling for Appling.

In UConn's backcourt, Napier will likely slide over to play more shooting guard this year as Ryan Boatright will be a starter from day one. Napier got off to a good start last year, looking like a draftable player, but faded with the rest of the UConn squad, many believe partly due to his inconsistent play and leadership. Both guards are very talented while having a disadvantage size wise. We will see if Kevin Ollie's knowledge of the point guard position wears off on them.

The final matchup to pinpoint is DeAndre Daniels against Branden Dawson. A battle between two highly touted recruits heading into their sophomore years, Dawson definitely has the physical edge. He could end up dominating if Daniels didn't spend time in the weight room this summer. We will see if Daniels is able to capitalize on Dawson's average lateral quickness and drive to the hoop, I would certainly like to see him more assertive.

Once 7pm strikes, it is time to exercise the remote and make sure your DVR is cleared for another wild season of basketball. Syracuse plays San Diego State, Ohio State faces Marquette, and we get our first looks at both North Carolina and Duke.

San Diego State is lead by star guard Jamaal Franklin, who actually played forward last season for them and with the other 3 starting guards returning, figures to again. It will be interesting to see how the athletically gifted Franklin is able to attack the Cuse 2-3 zone. He's a decent 3-pt shooter, but what I will be looking for is how he facilitates the ball at the top of the key and attacks the zone under control. He has a load of talent and skill to build on if he puts it all together. He has been showing out in open gyms all summer.

For Syracuse, I am really looking forward to seeing Michael Carter-Williams. His passing ability in the few minutes he had last year drew my attention and his size is intriguing. He is a combo guard who needs to find a niche scoring the ball and definitely has the potential to do so. There were questions about him being able to ride the bench all of last year, but he did so without fussing to the media, so now it is his turn to prove he can play.

CJ Fair might have been the most underrated player on last year's team and returns in a bigger role. In the NBA, he is a tweener, but he deserves more recognition at this level. With Joseph moving on, Fair might even get a chance to show off his budding perimeter skills, although a move to full time small forward doesn't appear to be in the cards.

It will be interesting to see how the frontcourt rotation plays out. There may be some small forward minutes available, but for the most part it will be Fair, Sutherland, Coleman, Christmas, and Keita splitting time. Sutherland has proven to be a solid role player deserving of minutes. Christmas was highly touted (although not by me) while under-performing, but it is almost expected he will be handed minutes this year. Keita is solid, but unspectacular - a guy they wouldn't mind keeping on the bench. Coleman is the wildcard who could end up starting on riding the bench most of the year. It depends on what kind of shape he is in. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

In the Marquette and Ohio State game, two of the peskiest defenders in college basketball take the stage in Aaron Craft and Vander Blue. Craft is more of a lockdown guy while Blue uses his athleticism is jump passing lanes and make plays when Marquette goes to the press. Offensively they both need a lot of work, but Craft is much more of a lead guard and leader. Blue will get more of a chance to show some skills with Johnson-Odom gone, but Junior Cadougan should be the main distributor. So far in Blue's career, he hasn't shown the necessary leadership or IQ needed to play the lead guard position.

It will also be interesting to see how Trent Lockett fits into Buzz Williams' system - a system that is night and day to the one Herb Sendek ran at Arizona State.

For Ohio State, there is plenty of NBA talent and simply seeing who gets the minutes will be intriguing. Deshaun Thomas will be the star, but Amir Williams, LaQuinton Ross, and Shannon Scott all have great potential despite hardly playing last season. We will get a good idea of who has stepped up to claim the available minutes left by Sullinger and Buford.

The next wave of games start at 8pm with Georgetown and Florida. Both teams lost its share of talent, but have future first rounders on their hands. Otto Porter is expected to make a big jump from last year and it will be interesting to see how he handles the expectations. He was the perfect role player last year and I like him in that role. This season he will have more pressure on him to score, but it is not what he does best.

For Florida's Patric Young, it is time he earns his reputation and starts dominating inside. His efficiency was good last year, but he remained in the backseat as an offensive player and has yet to be as intimidating as he looks. It is a make or break season for him.

Kenny Boynton had a somewhat make or break year last year and responded positively. Now with the backcourt in his hands again after Beal and Walker left, he needs to show he can continue to be efficient and lead the Gators to a high seed in the NCAA tournament. As a combo guard, he has to go above and beyond to prove himself to NBA scouts.

For the most overlooked game of the day by casual fans, North Texas and Creighton square off at 8:05. At first glance, it is just a battle of two solid mid-majors. But North Texas has projected lottery pick Tony Mitchell and Creighton counters will Doug McDermott, a player of the year candidate. Their games are extremely different - one based on athleticism, the other based on perimeter skills - but they both get it done on the court. A rare high profile game for these two, this game will be packed with NBA scouts and hold more of an impact on a players stock than any other game of the day.

At 8:30, we get to see Kentucky's new team debut as well as the Barclay's Center. They will be facing Maryland, who has Alex Len and a rapidly improving Nick Faust to boast.

It will be UK's freshman first impression on many and Alex Len has a big chance to turn some heads if he can take advantage of Nerlen Noel's lack of fundamentals. Archie Goodwin and Alex Poythress are two guys I am looking forward to see playing here more than even Noel or Len. Both have lottery potential.

While those games are digesting, wait until 10pm when Lehigh takes on Baylor. CJ McCollom will have a chance for another big performance against a top team and Isaiah Austin will make his debut. Austin is raw, but talented. He has lottery potential, but we should be able to tell early if he will need another year at Baylor to make a huge impact. McCollom will be going up against a some experienced guards from Baylor, including the ultra-athletic Pierre Jackson so it should be a good test.

To cap off the night into the morning hours, check out UCLA play for the first time at 11pm. If everything goes as planned, it will be Shabazz Muhammad's first game as well. Its a insignificant game against Indiana State, but it will just be interesting to see who is playing and how they all look. What kind of shape is Joshua Smith in?