Showing posts with label Michael Carter-Williams. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Michael Carter-Williams. Show all posts

Saturday, May 11, 2013

Stock Attack: Michael Carter-Williams

When I'm evaluating point guard prospects, I take a especially close look at their ability to control the tempo of the game, I also like to see how they handle adversity, run the pick and roll, change speeds, and balance scoring and passing. A point guard cannot disappear during the game. A point guard has to be the rock of the team. That is what I am looking for, guys with those traits.

Trey Burke has all of that. When it comes to Michael Carter-Williams, I'm hesitant to say he possesses any of those qualities. He disappeared from plenty of games. His passing consisted of a lot of drive and kicks and transition feeds. Yes, MCW did post great assists numbers. But how the assists were obtained are more important. When I look at MCW, I ask if he can consistently make plays out of the pick and roll and find teammates. Or if he can control the pace, set the offense, and make the simple plays. Where is his mid-range game? Carter-Williams makes a lot of spectacular plays and is a helluva talent, but he hasn't shown he can be a model of consistency. That is troubling from a point guard prospect.

There were a lot of games where Carter-Williams was quiet for an entire half and dominated the other. For some guys, thats just a matter of them knowing when to take over. For Carter-Williams, it was more of him being taken out of the game by the defense.

We are talking about a guy whose skills aren't up to par. He shoots a very flat shot with inconsistent mechanics. Some say he was a better shooter in HS, but that doesn't mean anything to me after he's had more than a full season at the college level. I saw that he did shoot well in Nike's EYBL events in AAU, but I don't take much stock into that. Those rims are very kind to make the players look better and benefit guys who don't shoot with much arc.

If you can't make shots consistently, the rest of your game better be refined. Carter-Williams is not. His ball handling skills are weak and magnified by his lack of strength. When he drives and the defense doesn't collapse on him to give him a passing option, he struggles to finish. He does have a nice floater, but can't get it off consistently. He lacks an explosive first step. Instead, Carter-Williams has to rely on his above average quickness for his size and a solid crossover. It works, but its much more of a shooting guard move than a point guard.

A point guard shouldn't need to overdribble to get his shot off. A point guard should understand how to change speeds and work the pick and roll game effectively. Burke was never taken out of games because he could always makes plays if he got a ball screen. Carter-Williams has a tougher task to operate in the pick and roll due to his height and he doesn't do himself any favors either. He doesn't change speeds well or mix up his strides. He's very shaky with the ball when two defenders are around him and his passing instincts look much more raw when it comes to more advanced plays.

Again, the drive and kick play is the most simple way for a point guard to get assists. Its the most basic play that any point guard should be able to execute. Carter-Williams can do it with the best of them in college, but  that doesn't make him a point guard. That is just the initial layer to being a point guard and when you look for more layers to his game, they aren't present.

Carter-Williams also struggled mightily against ball pressure as you saw if you watched the Big East Championship game against Louisville. For the first half, MCW and Cuse played well enough to have the lead. In the second half, Louisville turned up their defensive pressure and completely blew out Syracuse. The difference in halves was remarkable and the biggest blame goes to the point guard.

Then there was the Final 4 game against Michigan. Carter-Williams fouled out and went to the bench crying as if the game was over. Except it wasn't and Syracuse almost won the game. But there he was sitting on the bench with his head buried in a towel instead of cheering on his team. A leader doesn't act as if the game is over because he fouled out. Throughout the year, Syracuse was one of the most up and down teams in the country and there wasn't much leadership coming from their point guard. For a guy who should be the rock of the team, Carter-Williams was one of the most inconsistent players - both with his play on the court and in his emotions. You shouldn't ever get too high or too low as a basketball player - especially as a point guard. Its yet another thing Michael Carter-Williams has to overcome.

He gets some comparisons to Shaun Livingston but Livingston was a great athlete coming out of high school while Carter-Williams is just "good" athletically. Also, Carter-Williams wasn't even considered a point guard coming out of HS and there was a reason for that. Shaun Livingston had such pure point guard skills he was compared to Magic Johnson.

Defensively, Michael Carter-Williams has all the tools and good instincts to go with it. He had plenty of steals operating at the top of the zone and while his length and the system certainly helped, his ability to play the passing lanes should somewhat translate to the NBA. The biggest worry about his defense though is that he doesn't have experience at a high level playing man to man defense. And in recent times, Syracuse players have really struggled to make the adjustment. Even guys like Wes Johnson who people believed had all the athletic tools to make up for player in a zone. Right now, its just a very risky proposition to take a Syracuse player for his defensive ability. Carter-Williams could turn out to be very good defensively, but I wouldn't view it as a sure thing.

Potential is a word that is often associated with Michael Carter-Williams when you point out all these flaws. Sure, he has the height that most other point guards don't have. You can't teach size. But its also very hard to learn and improve all his other weaknesses when there are so many. There is potential and then there is the chances a player reaches his potential. I understand that you can't count out a guy improving his skills, but you can say a guy won't grow, but I'll take players with the necessary skills and ability over a guy with height anyday. Those attributes are very hard to improve as well. And at the age of 21, Michael Carter-Williams is far from the youngest player in the draft.

Friday, March 29, 2013

MCW Hype Begins Again Thanks to the New NCAA Tournament Audience

While twitter was busy bashing Cody Zeller, there was a wave of NBA bloggers also falling in love with Michael Carter-Williams and his potential. Guys who were just seeing him for the first time and happened to see him play his best game of the season. Carter-Williams is a guy who can make an immediately positive impression on you at first glance - a tall 6'7'' point guard who can defend and has a pass first attitude. NBA bloggers shouldn't be ashamed, Michael Carter-Williams fever also swept over the college basketball writers  in November and December as Michael Carter-Williams destroyed lesser competition. The same remarks gushing about his upside and calling him a top 5 pick that are being repeated now, were first said then.

Believe it or not, there was even a time early in the season where Michael Carter-Williams was brought up in conversation for first overall pick. There was a legitimate debate whether he was a better prospect than Marcus Smart - one that I received a lot of questioning about for siding with the Oklahoma State guard. All the talk pushed me to voice my concerns on him in December in this post (where I also talked about my concerns of Shabazz and Bennett, saying the same things that many are just starting to come around to now).

The more you watch Carter-Williams though, the more you are able to see his flaws. One game or a highlight reel doesn't give you a good barometer for his ability to control the pace of a game and thats something that is a major concern for him. Everyone is prone to a bad game every now and then, but point guards aren't supposed to be so easy to force out of their element. MCW is one of the most inconsistent players in the country and that isnt a good sign for an average shooter who has the ball in his hands a lot. He should possess the skills and ability to make plays when needed, but most of MCW's production comes in spurts of high level played followed by long droughts. Consistency is key for an offense to run well and MCW hasn't provided it this year for the Orange. Its why Cuse has been one of the best teams at beating up weaker competition - taking advantage of their physical advantages - but have struggled at times against good teams. He can rely on his length and athleticism to dominate opponents a lot of times, but against stronger competition the rest of his holes show.

Last night against Indiana however, MCW and Triche absolutely dominated the backcourt of Yogi Ferrell and Jordan Hulls. Indiana's defenders were too small to have any chance against either player and they were ran all over. I'm still waiting for a game where Michael Carter-Williams doesn't have this great advantage and is able to win a game via solid play throughout the whole game. We either get him dominating a whole game, playing well one half while throwing up a dud in the other half, or looking completely out of sorts an entire game.

Michael Carter-Williams, nobody is asking anything spectacular of you. Just show you can control the pace of a game all the way through and make the plays you are supposed to make. Get your team in the offense, handle the pressure, and continue to navigate your team's path through the NCAA tournament. There is still time left and the opportunities you have on the radar are the exact ones you'll need. 

Wednesday, March 20, 2013

10 Prospects With The Most To Gain From NCAA Tournament

1. Nate Wolters - For any mid-major prospect, the NCAA tournament presents a great stage to show off exactly what got you in the dance to begin with. For Wolters he gets to do that, while also going up against the best point guard in the country in Michigan's Trey Burke. Its an outstanding opportunity for him and one that will carry great weight on his stock - for better or worse. The only time Wolters has faced NBA level guards in his career so far was last season against Washington (Tony Wroten/Terrence Ross) where all he did was score 34 points en route to a blowout victory. This game will be much tougher for him to get the win, but a win is not necessary to greatly help his stock. One great game against Trey Burke will turn even more NBA scouts into believers. As it stands right now, Wolters is somewhere in the second round mix. A bad game could put him at risk of going undrafted, while a Cinderella-esque performance could get him into the late first round discussion.

2. Michael Carter-Williams - Carter-Williams has had an up and down season. He dominated early against weak competition, only to give in to the pressures of the Big East in conference play. He had a strong Big East tournament however, and looked good up until the final half of play against Louisville. But that half left a bad taste in onlookers mouths and he'll need a good NCAA tournament showing. Its obvious what Michael Carter-Williams can bring physically to the point guard position in terms of uniqueness and playmaking, but it remains to be seen if he can handle the nuances of the game. Syracuse is capable of a final four run and if MCW is the rock in that run, he could cement himself as a lottery pick. Otherwise, he could see himself fall on draft day if no team trusts him enough to pull the trigger early.

3. Marcus Smart - For Smart, this is a chance for him to embellish his story as a winner and a leader. There is no greater stage to show off those kind of traits than in front of a bunch of national media members in search of a feel good story. If Smart loses early on, scouts will spend the next month breaking down tape and questioning his first step, shooting, and explosiveness around the rim. They'll ask if he is really a point guard or just a shooting guard who can create his own shot. A tournament run, however, will make it much easier for evaluators to buy into his reputation as a winner and leader. In a weak draft like this, taking a guy like that could be the safest pick a general manager could make to keep his job.

4. Kelly Olynyk - Olynyk's stock continues to rise as he's basically played college basketball's version of a perfect season. Olynyk has made scoring look easy in the West Coast Conference and has done so at incredible efficiency. Scouts remain split on him though - as some are wary if he can defend and rebound at a NBA level. Getting away from WCC competition and possibly facing a tough Pittsburgh frontcourt in the Round of 32 will give him a chance to silence even more critics. If Gonzaga makes a final four run he will be the main reason and it will mean Olynyk lead them through a South Region that has a lot of tough, physical teams. A chance to face Plumlee/Dieng in the Final Four and possibly Cody Zeller or Jeff Withey in the Finals would be HUGE for him. Right now, Olynyk has enough believers that he could go at the tail end of the lottery, but a Final Four run could place him even higher.

5. Mike Muscala - Bucknell's Mike Muscala has been on NBA radar's all year, but the game against a NBA frontline came against Missouri where he had 25 points and 14 rebounds in a 2 point loss. Since then, Muscala had little trouble navigating his team through the CJ McCollom-less Patriot League. Now Muscala has his toughest test since Missouri in the Butler Bulldogs. Bucknell is the popular upset pick, but they will need Muscala to have a huge game. Andrew Smith could prove to be a tough matchup for Muscala though, as he's a legit 7 footer who moves his feet well. Smith is a finesse center who struggles against physical play inside, but that isn't Muscala's style either. Smith gave Cody Zeller a tough time earlier this year - a similar style player who prefers to face up and use his ball handling skills against slower bigs. Muscala certainly doesn't have the stars aligning for a perfect matchup in this one, but a good showing could vault him into the late first round in a similar way Nikola Vucevic did with USC. At worst, Muscala will hear his name called in the second round.

6. Shabazz Muhammad - With Jordan Adams out, this is now Shabazz's time to shine. The NCAA tournament lights and all the naysayers predicting an upset at the hands of Minnesota are exactly the recipe that Shabazz needs to get going. Expect his competitive nature to takeover against the Gophers and for him to deliver a strong showing whether they win or lose. A tournament run would of course be huge for Shabazz to get back into good graces with scouts, but even a solid performance would be a decent way to go out. Shabazz's stock may be effected more in the coming months as he has a chance to prove how good of an athlete he is and also get in better shape - which would give scouts a reason to give his struggles this season a pass.

7. Gorgui Dieng/Jeff Withey/Mason Plumlee - Three centers, all playing for title contenders, all of whom have a good chance of being first round picks in June. While they have plenty of work already filed into their resume, none of them have truly sold themselves as the real deal. It seems Plumlee is the favorite among most , as he's currently projected to be selected in the lottery. My favorite, however, is Gorgui Dieng, who didn't have a chance to face Plumlee during the early season matchup between their two teams. They very well could meet again and the winner of that game could ultimately go on to face either Jeff Withey or Cody Zeller. However it plays out, I think we will have a better picture of each player's stock once the nets are cut down. Personally, I see Dieng coming out on top and going in the top 20 with Plumlee, while Withey finds a home in the latter part of the first round.

8. Tony Snell - Snell is reportedly serious about entering this draft and is looking to capitalize on some positive momentum he has gained from a strong MWC tournament. Snell's name is just starting to get mentioned in unison for this draft, so scouts will pay special attention to his tournament games to see if he is worth a flier. His intrigue is based on his defensive tools and he could get a chance to defend Solomon Hill and Deshaun Thomas in the South Region. Locking those two down and advancing deep in the tournament would definitely turn some heads. This draft is lacking quality small forwards in the late first round and beyond and Snell could take advantage of that.

9. Spencer Dinwiddie - Apparently Dinwiddie could "test the waters" this year, although testing the waters isn't really a thing anymore. Still, he's been flying under the radar this season as most scouts would expect him to be back in school, but if he does declare he is a guy to consider in the late first round. Dinwiddie will be competing against other scoring guards like Brandon Paul, who he will get the opportunity to shutdown in the Round of 64. Shutting down a senior draft prospect like Paul will help, but he will also have to provide some offense as he's been really struggling from the field as of late. Dinwiddie will have another great opportunity the following round against the Miami backcourt of Shane Larkin and Durand Scott. He is certainly capable of earning some fans over the next few days and once scouts review the tape of this season, I think they will find a player worth late first round consideration.

10. CJ Fair - When talking about Syracuse, you often hear Michael Carter-Williams and James Southerland's names come up right off the bat. And rightfully so, but Fair has been their most consistent performer to date. With Southerland back, Fair has had more room to operate and he's been taking advantage of that by getting plenty of shots off in a variety of ways. He's taken at least 10 shots in every game except one in 2013. He's had mixed results in terms of efficiency, but is more than capable of putting up a string of strong games during the NCAA tournament. Fair has a smooth stroke from the field and an even smoother mid-range game. There aren't many players that can compare to Fair at the college level and he could present some intrigue in the later part of Round 1.

Also look out for Tim Hardaway Jr, Glenn Robinson III, Allen Crabbe, Durand Scott, Steven Adams, Brandon Paul, Matthew Dellavedova, Adriean Payne, Adonis Thomas, and Will Clyburn.

Sunday, December 23, 2012

Shabazz, MCW, and "ABeast" - Plus Today's Games to Watch

Anthony Bennett had another good game against Canisus - he scored 21 points. His jumper has been looking excellent and effortless from 3-pt range. He set screens for teammates in order to get himself open. And in transition, Bennett shined once again - showing the body control of a guard on the break. He had one possession where he brought the ball up the court in transition and stopped on a dime at the free throw line to avoid the charge; hitting a mid-range jumper in the process. The way Bennett moves in the opencourt is the most impressive thing about him.

As for his defense, he did a terrible job of attempting to play help defense. He helped too far off his man, while not actually providing any help defense, and left his man open for wide open 3s. Going into this game, Jordan Heath's career high in 3-pt attempts was 4. He had 4 within the first ten minutes of last night's game and finished with 10 attempts on the night. That was the result of Bennett's lack of feel and urgency on the defensive end.

Shabazz Muhammad had 27 points in 26 minutes against Fresno State. He also had 7 rebounds - all on the offensive end. Its amazing how much better he is on the glass when there is a chance to get two points out of it. Muhammad has proven he has a strong desire to score and will do whatever it takes to make sure he gets his points. Now that he has lost 13 pounds in the last few weeks, we are seeing just how much of an impact he can have on the offensive glass. Its definitely his biggest strength.

Muhammad has gotten comparisons to Michael Kidd-Gilchrist because of his willingness to do whatever it takes to win. I see it more as he is willing to do whatever it takes to score. Kidd-Gilchrist is a guy who can help his team win in a lot more ways. I still haven't been impressed by Muhammad's defense and he doesn't have the playmaking ability of MGK. He will, however, score a lot more points. They are different players.

If I had to compare Muhammad to a NBA player, it would be Jerry Stackhouse. Stackhouse cleaned up on the glass in college, played tough, wasn't especially quick laterally, and lacked much of a floor game. Stackhouse was able to develop a good jumper and Muhammad has already started to show improvement with his shot. He should end up as a reliable shooting threat.

As for Muhammad's worth, it depends a lot of the team. Remember when Muhammad came back from injury and Jordan Adams wasn't expected to be as much of a factor anymore? Well it turns out, Muhammad actually needs that kind of player. He needs to play in a backcourt with players who can create their own shot and make plays. Muhammad can be a big scorer in the NBA, but he will thrive off of others. You don't want him playing next to a Demar Derozan. You want him focused on working off of the ball and finding a way to get the ball in the hoop. He isn't going to make plays for teammates, but he won't turn the ball over either. He doesn't need the ball to be effective.

In the lottery Toronto and Charlotte would be bad fits because they are already building around wings that aren't big offensive threats.

Yesterday Michael Carter-Williams showed some of the things Ive been concerned about all year and they lost to Temple. This is why I've been saying lets wait until Big East play. I've had a lot of people ask me why I've been so down on MCW and I feel somewhat vindicated after yesterday. Im not overreacting to one bad game here, everyone else has been overreacting to a string of solid games against a very weak schedule. His flaws have been on display all year.

Carter-Williams is very good in transition and has been able to get into the paint and make the simple pass this year. He has racked up a lot of assists and can see over defenses, but its ridiculous to compare his passing ability to Rubio's or Kendall Marshall's. Those guys have an out of this world knowledge of the game and the ability to see things before they happen. Carter-Williams has a good feel for the game, but is nowhere near the point guard either of them are.

Syracuse did much of their damage in transition play as they have all year. Carter-Williams himself is the key in this, as he is great at forcing turnovers and getting out on the break. His long strides and ability to change directions with good body control are key factors. He also does a good job finding ways to get the ball to teammates.

In the halfcourt, Carter-Williams has been very aggressive. Against San Diego State, Carter-Williams relied on his quick first step and a floater to get his points. He didn't go all the way to the rim against them. After that, Cuse has been playing cupcakes whose centers barely rival MCW in length and he has been able to get into the painted area. He still struggled finishing with contact and that was especially evident yesterday against Temple - their toughest opponent since SDSU.

Carter-Williams relies on his terrific first step to create offense in the halfcourt at this point. He has a good feel for the pick and roll game, but is too turnover prone to run it consistent. He has a loose dribble and combined with his height, struggles in the traffic an on ball screen creates. Its also true when he drives into the lane - that combined with his lack of strength is a big concern.

Syracuse's defense has been able to put their players in position to get overrated by NBA scouts. From Hakim Warrick, Jonny Flynn, Donte Greene, Dion Waiters, Wesley Johnson - these guys have all been major disappointments once they've gotten into the NBA. Carter-Williams is making like Waiters on defense this year - showing good anticipation skills and gambling for a lot of steals. He's a huge threat in this area, but how does it translate?

Carter-Williams will have a sizable learning curve to make up for on defense when he gets to the NBA and his predecessors aren't positive examples of success. He does have great tools on this end of the floor, but it doesn't automatically make him a great defender.

All in all, there can't be a more overrated player in the country right now from a NBA Draft perspective. This is a kid who also has character concerns and that came before the shoplifting incident. He is competitive and has a love for the game which is a positive. Yes he was willing to sit on the bench for a full season and didn't transfer despite contemplating it, but why would he transfer? He would have had to sit out a whole season and he knew that he would be starter this year at Cuse. Its hardly a reason to applaud him.

Carter-Williams wasn't even looked at as a point guard until late in his high school career, and even up until this year, has always been considering a combo guard. He has made great strides in learning the point guard position but still has a long way to go. His potential is definitely worth a first round pick this season but the "best point guard prospect in the country" talk needs to stop.

*With the upcoming week lacking in quantity of games, I'll be spreading out more thoughts throughout the week on yesterday's games.*

Games to Watch Today:

St. Mary's at Northern Iowa 2pm
Kennesaw State at Pittsburgh 5pm ESPN3
Indiana State vs San Diego State 5pm ESPNU
Colorado State vs Virginia Tech 11:30pm CBSSN
Arizona vs Miami 11:30pm ESPN2

Saturday, December 22, 2012

Saturday's Big Games and a Recap of Last Night 12/22/12

South Florida played a thrilling triple overtime game against Bowling Green, allowing for an extensive look at sophomore guard Anthony Collins. Victor Rudd also had a huge game for the Bulls, coming up clutch in multiple occasions.

There is no way Anthony Collins is 6 feet and he doesn't have great length. What he does have is a great understanding of how to use his size. He gets really low when dribbling the ball, shrinking to about 4 feet. Last night, he was able to get inside of the zone and keep defenders behind him using his body. He doesnt look to get all the way to the hoop, just enough to create a good look for a teammate or for his own teardrop. Collins' preference is to find a teammate though, as he's a classic pass first point guard who knows how to lead a team and defend. He looks to push the ball when the opportunity is there but knows when to slow down and set the offense. He's a small point guard coaches love and trust, one of those scrappy southern point guards in the mold of Squeaky Johnson and Walker Russell Jr. Both players have been able to get some run in the NBA even though they aren't necessarily NBA quality because coaches trust them and enjoy having them during practices.


Jarnell Stokes had an average game against Western Carolina, scoring 12 points. He was out-muscled in the paint by Tawaski King, but eventually got him in foul trouble. Tennessee's offense has been terrible and Stokes hasn't been able to be much of an inside-out threat. He's had 1 multiple assist game in his last 9 contests.

Alex Len did what he was supposed to do against an undersized Stony Brook team. Maryland was able to dump in into the post to him, and without a double team, he went to work. They made it a point to feature him at the beginning of both halves although they got away from him in the final ten minutes of the game. Dez Wells was impressive yet again. He's a big talent.

Baylor vs BYU

- Brandon Davies was tough inside, but struggled getting his shot off against an NBA sized frontcourt. Too often he tried to fadeaway from them instead of going into their body. Davies has a solid post game with counter moves, and shows good patience in using them.

- Isaiah Austin got called for the biggest phantom call of the year, costing him his 6th block in the game. I think there is a misconception that Austin is soft - he doesn't shy away from contact, he just can't withstand it. He is willing to mix it up on the glass and on defense. The problem is that his shoulders don't appear to welcome much weight in the future.

- I really like Cory Jefferson's motor. I was surprised he wasn't asked to cover Davies the majority of the game. Jefferson is a beast on the boards and moves really well. Not only is he capable of moving well - he does. He runs full speed from point A to point B at all times. Whether it is to set a screen, grab a rebound, rotation on defense - Jefferson is always in a hurry to get there.

- Tyler Haws is very fun to watch. He has a great BBIQ and does a great job of getting open. He reminds me of a wing version of Matt Bouldin, but is certainly a one of a kind player.


Temple vs Syracuse 12pm ESPN2

Syracuse has been playing nothing but cupcakes this month so this Temple team could provide a test. They have some big guards - their smallest rotational guard is 6'2'' - that can actually have a somewhat fair shot against Michael Carter-Williams. MCW has been playing against teams where he is longer than the oppositions center so that is refreshing. Along with Alex Len, Carter-Williams has the most to prove when conference play starts. Everyone has already jumped on his and Len's bandwagon already, but both have played only 1 or 2 legitimate games. If they sustain their level of performance through conference play, I may be ready to give them more credit.

Murray State at Dayton 12pm CBSSN

This is a big game for Dayton as they are coming off of a heartbreaking loss against Illinois State. It should be a good one against Isaiah Canaan and company. Canaan has been very good again this season and Im still very much intrigued by how his scoring will translate in the NBA. I don't expect him to ever start at point guard, but he could have a nice career scoring as a poor man's Jason Terry. As for Ed Daniel, he is the closest thing you will get to Kenneth Faried in this draft. He impressed in the summer playing with big time college players and has parlayed that into a excellent senior season so far.

American at Georgetown 12pm ESPN3

McNeese State at North Carolina 12pm ESPNU

USC at Georgia 1:30pm

Interesting to note: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has tallied at least 9 rebounds in each of his last 3 games. Its good to see him playing hard through this nightmare of a season. I've never doubted Caldwell-Pope's energy. but the old adage "work smart, not hard" could apply to the sophomore shooting guard. He makes a lot of freshman mistakes. Another note - their second leading scorer averages 7.2 point per game. Ew. USC isn't much better and is led by Eric Wise's 10.6 ppg. Dewayne Dedmon is the Trojan to watch though. USC does a terrible job getting him touches on offense, but his defense and rebounding has been solid. He's 7 feet tall so he's in the running to get drafted in the second round this year.

Texas at Michigan State 2pm ESPN2

Texas beat up on North Carolina inside this week, now they are back to trying not to get beaten up themselves. Michigan State is far from UNC inside with Nix, Payne, and Dawson controlling the glass. Keith Appling needs to get back on track in this game. He has failed to score in double digits his last 3 games vs Division 1 opponents.

LSU at Marquette 2pm ESPNU

Florida State vs Charlotte 2pm CBSSN

Arizona State at Texas Tech 2pm

South Dakota State at New Mexico 2:30pm

Nate Wolters was hurt the last time they played a ranked team and this his last chance to pull off a big upset in his regular season career. The Jackrabbits start conference play after this one. Wolters has still been nursing his injury, but has gotten plenty of rest on SDSU's bus trip across the country to Albuquerque. Kendall Williams is a good point guard in his own right so this should be a good matchup.

Austin Peay at Illinois State 3pm

St. Mary's at Northern Iowa 3pm

St. Bonaventure at North Carolina St 3pm ESPN3

Wright State at Cincinnati 4pm

Kansas at Ohio State 4pm CBS

The biggest game of the day surprisingly has Ohio State favored by 5.5 points in Vegas. The Buckeyes have homecourt, but Kansas is the better team. Kevin Young and Travis Releford both are smart defenders who are up for the task of slowing down Deshaun Thomas. Nobody will stop Thomas, but they can make him have to hit tough shots. The key matchup in this one is at point guard play. Elijah Johnson has been getting by strictly as a guy bringing the ball up the court - not someone creating offense. Kansas is going to need him to be more of a point guard today and facing Aaron Craft, it won't be easy. If Ohio State manages to win this game - it will be because Craft got the better of Johnson.

Marshall at Kentucky 4pm

Missouri vs Illinois 6pm ESPN2

If Missouri wins this game, their advantage inside will be the reason. Laurence Bowers has been great this season, showing a much more mature offensive game then in previous seasons. He has worked his way into the draft conversation as a second round pick. Oriakhi, Pressey, and Paul are others to watch.

San Diego State vs San Francisco 6pm ESPNU

Bucknell at Princeton 7pm

Davidson at Drexel 8pm

Florida vs Kansas State 8pm ESPN2

Western Kentucky vs Louisville 8:30pm ESPNU

Canisius at UNLV 10pm

Arizona vs East Tennessee State 10:30pm ESPNU

Fresno State at UCLA 11pm Pac-12N

Miami (FL) at Hawaii 12:30am ESPNU

Sunday, December 16, 2012

2013 NBA Mock Draft

New 2013 NBA Mock. I didn't factor in any international players into the second round because I haven't studied many of them yet. Plus, I'd like to put in as many collegiate players as possible into the mocks. Team needs are loosely taken into account - moreso near the top of the draft.

Players leaving/staying were made at my own discretion and are purely speculation.

1. Charlotte Bobcats - FR Archie Goodwin, SG, Kentucky

The first overall pick is up for grabs. Honestly - try doing a mock draft right now. Each pick in the top 5 you question yourself if the player is worth that high of a selection. At this point, nobody has earned much. Goodwin has outstanding physical gifts and a knack for scoring and getting to the line. The Bobcats will need a scoring wing to pair with MGK if they ever want to win.

2. Cleveland Cavaliers - FR Nerlens Noel, C, Kentucky

Noel has been a mixed bag this year. If you had Anthony Davis level expectations you would be disappointed. If you were like me and had a lot of questions with his game - you should be seeing some reasons to be optimistic. Noel isn't as smart or as tough as Davis on defense, but is still making tons of plays and rebounding the ball. He has shown good energy and better body language than he did in high school. Offensively, he is raw but sports a positive assist to turnover ratio. He can get to the rim but needs to finish stronger and more under control.

3. Toronto Raptors - FR Anthony Bennett, PF, UNLV

Bennett has been dominant his freshman season thus far and will take on a even bigger role with Moser out. He does a good job setting screens and getting open off of them - showing a nice mid-range and deep jumper. He can also face up and get to the rim where he finishes with authority. He shows a post game but needs to get better at utilizing his big frame. Defensively you can say the same thing - he projects as just a solid defender - but has been a great rebounder.

Toronto is ready to end the Bargnani era and Bennett would spell the end of that. Bennett would fit well in their pick and roll offense and give them a different look from it than what Valanciunas presents. Also, Toronto wouldn't mind having a Canadian on their roster - and would hope to add another one the following year (Wiggins).

4. Washington Wizards - SO Cody Zeller, F/C, Indiana

Zeller has been great this year for #1 Indiana, but that has not lifted the concerns about his length and explosiveness. Zeller can look very average at times in the post when he can't create separation. He struggles to get his own shot and finish near the hoop. Zeller's outstanding skill level, footwork, and energy still make him a nice prospect - just not an elite one.

5. Phoenix Suns - 1992 Rudy Gobert, C, Cholet

Gobert just recently announced that he would like to play in the NBA next year. He's a project but has the size and athleticism to turn out to be a good one.

6. Sacramento Kings - FR Marcus Smart, PG, Oklahoma State

Smart is one of my favorite players in this draft and a leader who can step in and turn the culture of a team around. He possesses natural leadership skills, great athleticism and size, and a advanced understanding of how to change speeds. Smart is a stat stuffer who helps out in all areas of the game and has the ability to be either a great scorer or facilitator at the point guard spot.

7. New Orleans Hornets - FR Shabazz Muhammad, SG, UCLA

Muhammad has struggled early on and needs to turn it up soon. He had an injury and missed practice so its understandable, but as the season goes on that excuse will go away. And the UCLA excuse doesnt work for me - it was much more evident it was the system that was holding back Westbrook and Holiday. For Muhammad its his lack of ball handling skills and ability to create separation. He has to work very hard for each bucket and relies too much on his strength and energy. Defensively, he looks slow and out of shape.

8. Detroit Pistons - SO Otto Porter, SF, Georgetown

Porter has been great for Georgetown and his most impressive revelation for his stock so far has been his shooting ability. His high IQ, defense, passing skills, and toughness were known - but his silky smooth jumper from the mid-range area has now started progressing into a solid 3-pt shot. For a guy with average explosiveness for a lottery wing, his ability to knock down the jumper is crucial for his offensive success.

9. Orlando Magic - SO Michael Carter-Williams, PG, Syracuse

Carter-Williams is the most dynamic player on the board at this point and offers a lot to be excited about. He also offers a lot of questions. Is he mature and a good enough leader to run the point? Can he get into the paint and finish with contact? How will he defend outside of the 2-3 zone? Will he fare better than the last couple of Syracuse players? His height is helping mask a lot of his weaknesses at this point. I still like him though and as Syracuse plays tougher opponents the answers to these questions will become more clear. The one concern I dont have that most actually do is his shooting - he has always had a good touch and its starting to come along the past few games.

10. Houston Rockets - FR Glenn Robinson III, SF, Michigan

The hype on Glenn Robinson III hasn't gotten rolling yet with him stuck next to two ball dominant guards. And perhaps that is best for him - like the rest of the SFs in this draft, GRIII isn't a guy who wants to be "the guy". He's perfectly content playing his role - knocking down jumpers, rebounding, and playing defense. The thing is, he has been incredibly efficient doing it so far as a freshman on one of the best teams in the nation. You can easily carve out a long NBA career doing what he is done so far.

11. Philadelphia 76ers - FR Ben McLemore, SG, Kansas

McLemore has already stepped into the main scoring role for the Jayhawks and he hasn't even started hitting threes yet. McLemore does a great job getting open for shots off screens and sneaks in for backdoor alley-oop plays every now and then to show off his athleticism. He has the size, athleticism, and the shooting ability for the shooting guard position. He is kind of like Bradley Beal last year in the sense that it is tough to go wrong with him. His floor seems like a solid starter and he offer the potential to be one of the better shooting guards in the game. He could end up going in the top 5.

12. Portland Trailblazers - SR CJ McCollum, G, Lehigh

CJ McCollum has lived up to his senior hype in the scoring column - already going off for 30+ points a couple of times. He gets good separation for his jumpshot with his crossover and has silky smooth body control when going up for his shot. McCollum is a great shooter and projects as instant offense off the bench at the next level. He isn't the athlete that Portland's Damian Lillard is and it prevents him from being the playmaker Lillard is. I don't think McCollum will make the full transition to point guard, but will be able to run it off the bench. He is a student of the game and a very hard worker.

13. Dallas Mavericks - FR Alex Poythress, F, Kentucky

With his near 70% field goal shooting and 0.6/3 assist to turnover ratio, its clear just looking at the stats that Poythress is much more of a power forward right now. Poythress is able to defend multiple positions well which is a big part of his appeal and if you can defend the perimeter like he can then there is hope that he can make the transition on offense. Even if he doesn't, Poythress has enough size to be a combo forward in the NBA and the attitude and work ethic that will keep him in the league. He's not a top 5 pick though. I don't see it in his skillset and its definitely not his type of mentality. He went to Kentucky so he didn't have to be "the guy" - Poythress prefers to be a role player.

14. Los Angeles Lakers (to Phoenix) - SO James Michael McAdoo, PF, North Carolina

Everyone is well aware of McAdoo's struggles this year in his new role. The biggest problem with him has been his strength. He is getting pushed around inside, has been unable to get under control, and it is causing a lot of turnovers. He isn't the physical presence North Carolina needs him to be. He still shows good upside on offense thanks to his ability to move without the ball, his quickness, and his soft touch. If he gets stronger, I also think he will be able to start showing a forming post game. Defensively he is smart and is able to draw charges with his quick feet, but doesn't prove to be much of a threat. And he gets pushed around on the glass.

15. Indiana Pacers - SO Trey Burke, PG, Michigan

Trey Burke has followed up his impressive freshman season with another one so far - leading Michigan to an undefeated record. Burke has drawn comparisons to a poor man's Chris Paul and its accurate. He is a balanced point guard, able to both distribute and score. He has a high BBIQ and takes the team and the game on his shoulders. He understands Michigan's complex offense so well. He can overdribble at times and does need to be more of a factor on defense. The only thing holding him back from a top ten selection is his athleticism. And averaging a combined 4.7 rebounds/blocks/and steals brings up some concerns among stat junkies.

16. Milwaukee Bucks - SO Alex Len, C, Maryland

The hype around Alex Len right now reminds me of the Kosta Koufos hype when he first got to Ohio State. Legit seven footer with offensive skills, blocks shots, can hit the jumper and score with his back to the basket. Its an intriguing set of skills for sure, but the most important factor for centers in today's NBA is defense. That is how you get on the court. Len is a good shot blocker (he is more explosive than Koufos), but lacks an understanding and commitment on the defensive end. Besides Kentucky, Maryland hasn't played in any big games so Len is still living off the hype from his first game. But come ACC play he will have to earn the top 5 billing analysts are placing on him.

17. Boston Celtics - SO Tony Mitchell, F, North Texas

I just wrote about Mitchell and this part of the draft would be a good spot for him. His production hasn't been the best up to this point. He might be the best athlete in the draft, but seems to have false beliefs that he is a small forward. If he commits to power forward, he can be very good. Its a high risk/high reward situation in the lottery. It this spot, it would be all reward.

18. Minnesota Timberwolves (to Phoenix) - SR Mason Plumlee, F/C, Duke

Wrote this recently - "There is part of me that wants to rank Plumlee lower, but its tough with the season he is having. He very well could be National Player of the Year this season and his stock should start soaring. It won't surprise me if he ends up in the lottery. I don't want to split hairs though with his ranking - my main point is if I were a GM, I'd spend my top 20 pick somewhere else. I'd much rather take Jeff Withey outside the top 20 then spend a top 20 pick on Mason. Nothing against him, he's having a great season, I just question how it all translates to the next level. His offense is a lot of face up looks, but he can't shoot. He relies on the drive, but its going to be hard to keep NBA defenses honest if he can't consistent hit the 15 footer. And his post game is still based on his athleticism. And he doesn't even establish deep post position enough to take advantage of it."

19. Utah Jazz - JR Ray McCallum, PG, Detroit

McCallum is an underrated prospect. CJ McCollum gets all the hype because of his scoring, but all Ray McCallum has done this season is prove he can suddenly switch from a point guard to shot hunter to provide his team with much needed scoring. He isn't as good at it as McCollum but McCallum also isn't a combo guard. He is a pure point who has proven he knows how to lead a team and create shots for his teammates. McCallum looks like a sure bet to be at least a top backup point guard, but could easily turn into a solid starter.

20. Denver Nuggets - SR Jeff Withey, C, Kansas

Withey is leading a suffocating Kansas defense. I wrote this recently -

"The second best senior? It sounds weird, but Withey has an elite ability to affect games on the defensive end that should make him a good player in the pros. He moves so fluidly for a 7 footer and gets off the court quickly. He has been Kansas's best player so far, even becoming more of a threat on offense. Kansas can't get much penetration so Withey has been a key factor on offense - being relied upon as a part of their inside/out game. He has shown quick moves in the post and has been more aggressive this season. Withey isn't the most talented senior, but he might be the surest bet to walk onto a NBA team and contribute right away."

21, Golden State Warriors (to Utah) - SR Jackie Carmichael, PF, Illinois State

Jackie Carmichael has been a huge revelation to me this year. He has a prototypical body for a four man and is more explosive than he looks. He's actually extremely nimble on his feet and does a great job defending pick and rolls on the perimeter. He plays the game offensively like a 10 year NBA vet - setting good screens, showing great patience in the post, hitting from mid-range, and cleaning the offensive boards. He is a good passer and has a post game. At this point, it wouldn't be crazy to call him the most NBA ready power foward in the draft.

22. Brooklyn Nets - JR Andre Roberson, PF, Colorado

Roberson has looked bad this year trying to show his perimeter skills and that is taking away all the attention from what he can do. He is still posting great rebounding numbers and generating a ton of blocks and steals. He isn't a small foward, but would that have even been the best fit for him? He can be a poor man's Marion off the bench.

23. Chicago Bulls - JR Gorgui Dieng, C, Louisville

Dieng has been out the last month with a broken wrist and he has been missed - not only for his great defense, but for his offense. Dieng is a big help facilitating the offense from the post and had flipped his turnover ratio upside down from previous years. He should be back in the next couple of weeks.

24. Atlanta Hawks - SO BJ Young, SG, Arkansas

Young has proven to be one of the better one on one players in college basketball when it comes to getting to the rim. He has excellent body control and footwork on his way to the rim and is able to manipulate his way through defenders and hang in the air to finish with contact. While his ability to get to the basket and finish is elite, his shooting has taken a step back this year and he isn't getting a chance to show his ability to run the point guard in Arkansas' 3 guard offense.

25. Memphis Grizzlies (to Minnesota) - JR Reggie Bullock, G/F, North Carolina

With North Carolina struggling, it is easy to sour on their top prospects and place the blame on them. And you can knock Bullock for his aggressiveness - only getting to the line 1.4 times a game. But that isnt his game and isnt what he will be expected to do in the NBA. He cant carry UNC, but in terms of doing the little things, he continues to show elite qualities of a role player. His 3-pt shot is hitting at an all time high, as he's making 43% from behind the arc, and it looks great coming out of his hand. His assists and steals are also up. He could be an immediate contributor to a playoff team.

26. Miami Heat (to Cleveland) - SO LeBryan Nash, SF, Oklahoma State

LeBryan Nash is an interesting player. He struggled last year trying to show off his perimeter skills and has made it a point this year to play more inside and get to the free throw line. He's getting to the line nearly 2.5 times per game more than his freshman year. Operating inside of 18 feet, he has looked nearly unstoppable and has shown a variety of different ways to hurt the opposition. He has also shown solid court vision but his A/TO is hurt by his propensity to force things and take bad shots. Defensively, Nash has a reputation as a stopper but struggles to keep quicker perimeter players in front of him. He might be stuck in between positions like an Al Thornton type but if he blossoms, he could be the next Caron Butler.

27. Los Angeles Clippers - JR Victor Oladipo, G/F, Indiana

Oladipo has been arguably Indiana's best player this season while turning himself into some kind of folk hero. His defense is something that can't be captured in a scouting report - nor can his energy. He has Tony Allen-type defense skills. And his defense has turned into quick offense for him, enabling him to get out on the break for big thunderous dunks while showcasing his elite athleticism. He is shooting a ridiculous 65% from the field this year - up from just 47% the year before. I predicted a breakout year from Oladipo, but the season he is having is something special.

28. New York Knicks - JR Patric Young, F/C, Florida

After two subpar years, Patric Young has started to show some signs of life this season - upping his rebound totals and finally blocking some shots. Still, he needed a early season benching to jumpstart him and after last night's game, it looks like he could be starting to get too comfortable again. He has a NBA body and moves his feet well defensively, so he should at least be a solid big off the bench in the league. I highly doubt at this point he will ever become anything more.

29. San Antonio Spurs - 1994 Dario Saric, F, Cibona Zagreb

Saric's season is just getting underway.

30. Oklahoma City Thunder - JR Mike Moser, F, UNLV

Mike Moser got off to a shaky start this year before getting hurt. It was an adjustment for him to get used to playing with Anthony Bennett and when he comes back this time, he will also have to adjust to playing with Khem Birch. Bennett has taken over as the star of the Rebels and Birch will play center, so Moser will have a chance to focus on playing the perimeter.

31. Charlotte Bobcats (to Oklahoma City) - JR CJ Leslie, PF, North Carolina State

Leslie continues to be a mixed bag for the Wolfpack, looking like a guy who will never grow to "get it". This is his junior year and at this time, he should be dominating competition with his athleticism alone. Yet that hasn't been the case as NC State has been a disappointment and Leslie is stuck in neutral. He still lacks any reliable way to score on offense and doesn't play smart defense. And he has failed to provide any kind of leadership on a NC State team begging for a leader - he instead plays more like a freshman than Purvis, Lewis, or Warren.

32. Cleveland Cavaliers - SR Elijah Johnson, PG, Kansas

I was so busy trying to point out Elijah Johnson's weaknesses over the summer - saying he won't be able to be "the guy", he isn't aggressive, he doesnt get to the rim - to recognize his strengths and what he can bring to a team. Elijah Johnson is a shot maker and also has a great physical profile on defense. He is excellent off the catch and shoot once he gets his feet get set. I still question his ability to take advantage of his defensive attributes, as he has never shown good awareness. But this season that hasn't been as apparent with him guarding the oppositions point guard more. His main trouble was defending off ball and understanding how to see "ball" and "man" at all times. Johnson really needs to get to the line more though - 1.4 times a game won't cut it. He's perfectly capable.

33. Toronto Raptors - JR Jamaal Franklin, SG, San Diego State

Franklin is a guy who coaches will love one second and hate the next. He tries to do everything on offense even though he is limited by his ball handling abilities. He turns it over a lot and takes a lot of bad shots. But he also works very hard, rebounds like a big man, and can score in bunches. He is a highlight reel finisher and is a streaky outside shooter. Right now, he needs to get his 3-pt% back up because that will need to be a big part of his game in the NBA. Being a 23% 3-pt shooter will have him averaging 20ppg in the D-League real quick.

34. Washington Wizards - SR Michael Snaer, SG, Florida State
35. Phoenix Suns - SR Brandon Paul, G, Illinois
36. Sacramento Kings - SR Rodney Williams, F, Minnesota
37. New Orleans Hornets (to Philadelphia) - JR Phil Pressey, PG, Missouri
38. Detroit Pistons - JR Tim Hardaway Jr, SG, Michigan
39. Orlando Magic (to Cleveland) - SO Jarnell Stokes, PF, Tennessee
40. Houston Rockets - SO Myck Kabongo, PG, Texas
41. Philadelphia 76ers - JR Deshaun Thomas, SF, Ohio State
42. Portland Trailblazers (to Denver) - SR Richard Howell, PF, North Carolina State
43. Dallas Mavericks - SR Nate Wolters, PG, South Dakota State
44. Los Angeles Lakers - SR Erick Green, G, Virginia Tech
45, Indiana Pacers - JR Aaron Craft, PG, Ohio State
46. Milwaukee Bucks - SR James Ennis, SF, Long Beach State
47. Boston Celtics (to Portland) - JR CJ Wilcox, SG, Washington
48. Minnesota Timberwolves (to Portland) - SO Rakeem Christmas, F/C, Syracuse
49. Utah Jazz - JR Russ Smith, G, Louisville
50. Denver Nuggets (to Phoenix) - JR CJ Fair, F, Syracuse
51, Golden State Warriors (to Orlando) - SR Robert Covington, F, Tennessee State
52. Brooklyn Nets (to Minnesota) - JR Sean Kilpatrick, SG, Cincinnati
53. Chicago Bulls - JR Lorenzo Brown, PG, North Carolina State
54. Atlanta Hawks - SO Ryan Harrow, PG, Kentucky
55. Memphis Grizzlies - SR Ryan Kelly, PF, Duke
56. Miami Heat - SR Lawrence Bowers, PF, Missouri
57. Los Angeles Clippers (to Detroit) - SR Jamelle Hagins, F/C, Delaware
58. New York Knicks (to Washington) - SR Kenny Boynton, G, Florida
59. San Antonio Spurs - SR Trevor Mbawke, PF, Minnesota
60. Oklahoma City Thunder (to Minnesota) - SR Solomon Hill, SF, Arizona

Top Undrafted:

Durant Scott
DeWayne Dedmon
Elias Harris
Jack Cooley
Amath M'Baye
Reggie Johnson
Mike Muscala
Gregory Echenique
Brock Motum
Kenny Kadji

Monday, November 12, 2012

CJ, Cuse Sail Past San Diego State

Carter-Williams has the floater down, rushes his moves, can get outta control. posted up. can get the floater whenever with his height advantage and quick first step

Fair playing SF - 3 jumpers, good body control, hands contact well

Franklin sloppy. really had a problem handling the ball and making good decisions under pressure. handling in traffic. he built hype over the summer with his play in summer leagues but we are seeing how he plays when actual defense is being played. this isnt playground but, this is shipyard ball. some good passes. weird situation as PF vs 2-3. overpenetrates

triche looking quicker, changing speeds, using body

A game on a naval ship finally came to completion yesterday, with Syracuse upending San Diego State 62-49. It never really was close, but San Diego State was at a disadvantage. They had to shoot into the sun in the first half and managed to only score 19 points without connecting on a three. Between the two teams they combined to shoot 2-22 from behind the arc. Syracuse was able to abandon the three ball, only taking four the entire game, but SDSU - facing the 2/3 zone didn't have the same luxury. The chucked 18 threes as its really the only hope to beat the Orange. By the time the second half rolled around, San Diego State was in panick mode and they were unable to put together a run. They lost by 13, but were done by more much of the second half.

One would say their loss may have been unFAIR, but I'd credit CJ FAIR for providing a scoring threat for the Orange from the get-go. Fair has made the transition to full time small forward this year and showed off an improved jumper - hitting 3 long jumpers, including Cuse's only 3 - in the first half. He finished with 17 points on 7-15 shooting. His ball handling skills are iffy although Fair possesses solid creativeness and body control in the lane. You can still tell he operated from inside the arc much of his career. His jumper is also slow. The biggest problem for Fair's draft stock is his ability to cover the perimeter. Many Cuse wings struggle with a transition to the NBA because of defense, and it will be even harder for Fair since he's already a tweener and lacks good lateral quickness. He's talented and has great physical attributes, but he has an uphill battle to climb with his draft stock.

The matchup to watch was at the guard positions between Michael Carter-Williams and Jamaal Franklin. They didn't battle head to head unfortunately, but they mirror each other in the way they play. Franklin came out of the gate rusty and committed three early turnovers. Things never got much better for him and he finished with 7 giveaways on the night. Franklin is a guy who plays power forward for San Diego State but is a shooting guard at the next level. Up against the 2-3, he was expected to be the facilitator in the middle. This didn't happen though, partly due to him and also because of their lack of shooting threats outside. Franklin was bothered all night by tight defense and couldn't control the ball in a crowd. He built hype over the summer with his highlights and domination in summer leagues - games that suit his style well. However when actual defense is being played, Franklin has questionable handle and even more questionable decision making. This was a tough situation for him.

Carter-Williams also has a tendency to play out of control. This was his first game receiving starter minutes after he rode the bench last year. He was asked to lead the offense much of the game, despite playing with senior Brandon Triche and he was able to make some plays. Carter-Williams has a very quick and long first step that enables him to get into the lane at will. He also has nice touch on his floater which he can get off against any point guard that tries to guard him. That shot will always be there for him. He also can take advantage of his size in the post which he tried to do once yesterday, but to no avail. He played this game out of control and tried to hurry his ball handling moves. He finished with 17 points before fouling out while also turning it over as much as he assisted teammates (4) and getting 5 steals. He will be near the top of the charts in steals this season.

The last guy who stood out was Brandon Triche who finally looks healthy heading into his senior year. Triche was much quicker than usual, finished with both hands, and used his strength to his advantage. He was aggressive getting to the rim. If his in-between game improves, he could end up getting draft in the second round. Lots of good point guards this year.

Friday, September 28, 2012

Because We Cant Wait for College Basketball Season

I am incredibly antsy for this college basketball season to start. It has been a long offseason that has been  aided by watching old games, but I am ready to see the kind of strides teams and players have made during the summer. I am ready to fill up my DVR to max capacity, watch as many games as possible every night, bombard your twitter feeds with live-tweets, and update this site with brand new content. I just really want to get the ball rolling to where there will be tons of new information each and every week, if not everyday. I am simply unable to contain myself from pouring over the schedule and pinpointing early season matchups that I will be sure to break down. Starting with November 9th, the first day of the season, there are plenty of interesting games. The first night will be no warm up, we will be jumping in head first.

Starting at 5:30, we have Michigan State taking on Connecticut. The main storyline here will be the new face on the sideline, Kevin Ollie, but this is also a chance to see some new faces. Two years ago, I remember watching freshman Jeremy Lamb playing in his first game and hopped on his bandwagon right away. This year it could be one of two freshman shooting guards breaking out - Omar Calhoun of UConn or Gary Harris at Michigan State. Both figure to play key roles in their teams game plans from day one.

It will also be our first chance to see Keith Appling this year. He will be expected to become a playmaker for the Spartans, something he didn't do much of last year. Early returns will be telling for Appling.

In UConn's backcourt, Napier will likely slide over to play more shooting guard this year as Ryan Boatright will be a starter from day one. Napier got off to a good start last year, looking like a draftable player, but faded with the rest of the UConn squad, many believe partly due to his inconsistent play and leadership. Both guards are very talented while having a disadvantage size wise. We will see if Kevin Ollie's knowledge of the point guard position wears off on them.

The final matchup to pinpoint is DeAndre Daniels against Branden Dawson. A battle between two highly touted recruits heading into their sophomore years, Dawson definitely has the physical edge. He could end up dominating if Daniels didn't spend time in the weight room this summer. We will see if Daniels is able to capitalize on Dawson's average lateral quickness and drive to the hoop, I would certainly like to see him more assertive.

Once 7pm strikes, it is time to exercise the remote and make sure your DVR is cleared for another wild season of basketball. Syracuse plays San Diego State, Ohio State faces Marquette, and we get our first looks at both North Carolina and Duke.

San Diego State is lead by star guard Jamaal Franklin, who actually played forward last season for them and with the other 3 starting guards returning, figures to again. It will be interesting to see how the athletically gifted Franklin is able to attack the Cuse 2-3 zone. He's a decent 3-pt shooter, but what I will be looking for is how he facilitates the ball at the top of the key and attacks the zone under control. He has a load of talent and skill to build on if he puts it all together. He has been showing out in open gyms all summer.

For Syracuse, I am really looking forward to seeing Michael Carter-Williams. His passing ability in the few minutes he had last year drew my attention and his size is intriguing. He is a combo guard who needs to find a niche scoring the ball and definitely has the potential to do so. There were questions about him being able to ride the bench all of last year, but he did so without fussing to the media, so now it is his turn to prove he can play.

CJ Fair might have been the most underrated player on last year's team and returns in a bigger role. In the NBA, he is a tweener, but he deserves more recognition at this level. With Joseph moving on, Fair might even get a chance to show off his budding perimeter skills, although a move to full time small forward doesn't appear to be in the cards.

It will be interesting to see how the frontcourt rotation plays out. There may be some small forward minutes available, but for the most part it will be Fair, Sutherland, Coleman, Christmas, and Keita splitting time. Sutherland has proven to be a solid role player deserving of minutes. Christmas was highly touted (although not by me) while under-performing, but it is almost expected he will be handed minutes this year. Keita is solid, but unspectacular - a guy they wouldn't mind keeping on the bench. Coleman is the wildcard who could end up starting on riding the bench most of the year. It depends on what kind of shape he is in. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

In the Marquette and Ohio State game, two of the peskiest defenders in college basketball take the stage in Aaron Craft and Vander Blue. Craft is more of a lockdown guy while Blue uses his athleticism is jump passing lanes and make plays when Marquette goes to the press. Offensively they both need a lot of work, but Craft is much more of a lead guard and leader. Blue will get more of a chance to show some skills with Johnson-Odom gone, but Junior Cadougan should be the main distributor. So far in Blue's career, he hasn't shown the necessary leadership or IQ needed to play the lead guard position.

It will also be interesting to see how Trent Lockett fits into Buzz Williams' system - a system that is night and day to the one Herb Sendek ran at Arizona State.

For Ohio State, there is plenty of NBA talent and simply seeing who gets the minutes will be intriguing. Deshaun Thomas will be the star, but Amir Williams, LaQuinton Ross, and Shannon Scott all have great potential despite hardly playing last season. We will get a good idea of who has stepped up to claim the available minutes left by Sullinger and Buford.

The next wave of games start at 8pm with Georgetown and Florida. Both teams lost its share of talent, but have future first rounders on their hands. Otto Porter is expected to make a big jump from last year and it will be interesting to see how he handles the expectations. He was the perfect role player last year and I like him in that role. This season he will have more pressure on him to score, but it is not what he does best.

For Florida's Patric Young, it is time he earns his reputation and starts dominating inside. His efficiency was good last year, but he remained in the backseat as an offensive player and has yet to be as intimidating as he looks. It is a make or break season for him.

Kenny Boynton had a somewhat make or break year last year and responded positively. Now with the backcourt in his hands again after Beal and Walker left, he needs to show he can continue to be efficient and lead the Gators to a high seed in the NCAA tournament. As a combo guard, he has to go above and beyond to prove himself to NBA scouts.

For the most overlooked game of the day by casual fans, North Texas and Creighton square off at 8:05. At first glance, it is just a battle of two solid mid-majors. But North Texas has projected lottery pick Tony Mitchell and Creighton counters will Doug McDermott, a player of the year candidate. Their games are extremely different - one based on athleticism, the other based on perimeter skills - but they both get it done on the court. A rare high profile game for these two, this game will be packed with NBA scouts and hold more of an impact on a players stock than any other game of the day.

At 8:30, we get to see Kentucky's new team debut as well as the Barclay's Center. They will be facing Maryland, who has Alex Len and a rapidly improving Nick Faust to boast.

It will be UK's freshman first impression on many and Alex Len has a big chance to turn some heads if he can take advantage of Nerlen Noel's lack of fundamentals. Archie Goodwin and Alex Poythress are two guys I am looking forward to see playing here more than even Noel or Len. Both have lottery potential.

While those games are digesting, wait until 10pm when Lehigh takes on Baylor. CJ McCollom will have a chance for another big performance against a top team and Isaiah Austin will make his debut. Austin is raw, but talented. He has lottery potential, but we should be able to tell early if he will need another year at Baylor to make a huge impact. McCollom will be going up against a some experienced guards from Baylor, including the ultra-athletic Pierre Jackson so it should be a good test.

To cap off the night into the morning hours, check out UCLA play for the first time at 11pm. If everything goes as planned, it will be Shabazz Muhammad's first game as well. Its a insignificant game against Indiana State, but it will just be interesting to see who is playing and how they all look. What kind of shape is Joshua Smith in?

Thursday, March 31, 2011

McDonald All-American Game Thoughts

With the Hoop Summit, Jordan Classic, and National High School Invitation all still waiting to be played, along with a full year of college to evaluate these players, I want to avoid doing scouting reports or making any knee-jerk reactions. Here are just some of my thoughts after watching, reading, and hearing about the players.

PF Anthony Davis (Kentucky) - Wow. Anthony Davis really stole the show for the West team. While he didn't come away with MVP honors, he impressed me more than anyone else. It was great to see him in action against great competition after everything I've read. I was worried that he would be another Perry Jones and hang around the perimeter, but I was pleasantly surprised. He has some guard skills and can start the fastbreak himself, but he kept himself positioned inside and collected 14 points. He needs to get stronger to hold his own in the post and become more of a threat on the boards, but he was just 6'3'' a year and a half ago. He needs time to fill out his frame and also adjust to being a big man. Because of that, he has an incredible upside and it is very impressive how quickly he already has made tremendous strides adapting to his new body and position. His wingspan is also a huge asset and helped him block four shots. The most notable thing he did, though, was when he ended up in the stands going after a loose ball. The kid was everywhere.

PF Kyle Wiltjer (Kentucky) - Wiltjer started off his week right by winning the 3-pt contest. He was reportedly very serious in practice, taking advantage of the great opportunity offered from playing in this event. Working alongside Anthony Davis will provide huge mismatch problems for other teams and I can't wait to see how Coach Cal uses them together. Wiltjer has a great shooting touch and old school post moves - he hit a running hook shot in the game. He finished up with 11 points on 4-10 shooting from the field.

SG Bradley Beal (Florida) - Beal got off to a hot start and had a game-high 17 points (along with McAdoo). He has an excellent stroke from outside that scouts have compared to Ray Allen's. He is not just a shooter, though. He is a great competitor and went right at Austin Rivers who was at one point committed to go to Florida with him. He is a good athlete overall, with a strong frame. He can get into the lane and finish through contact and will be able to play the SG position in the NBA even though he is slightly undersized. Beal's biggest obstacle next year is getting consistent minutes - Florida also has Erving Walker, Kenny Boynton, and Mike Rosario at the guard positions - none of which have a problem hoisting shots. Hopefully Beal gets a chance because I definitely believe he can be as productive as the other guards. Patric Young didn't get any favors this year as an All-American, so we will see how Donovan divvies out playing time.

SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Georgia) - Caldwell-Pope isn't one of the most notable names at the game, but he could be a great fit for the Bulldogs if Travis Leslie and Trey Thompkins return for their senior years. Georgia's offense is designed for 3-pt shooters, and with Leslie, they haven't had a guard that can take advantage. If Caldwell-Pope gets to play next to Leslie, they can form a solid combination. Besides that though, Caldwell-Pope looks like he will be in college for a few years. He is more along the lines of a guy like Corey Stokes or Reggie Bullock who have great size and shooting, but need to work on the rest of their game.

SG Michael Carter-Williams (Syracuse) - I think this guy has a chance to be really good. He won the skills competition and showed off some great ball-handling skills in the process. His scouting report reads similarly to Jeremy Lamb, but the difference is some would question whether Carter-Williams would have the patience to let Kemba do all the work. Carter-Williams has a rep for being selfish and demanding when his inferior teammates have the ball. If he adjusts at Syracuse and allows Jardine, Waiters, and Triche to do their thing, he could be a very dangerous player. If not, he might be on the bench for most of his freshman year.

F/C Rakeem Christmas (Syracuse) - Christmas is another player heading to Syracuse with some questions about his mental makeup. I have been one of his biggest detractors since I saw him play as a freshman. I don't like his body language and he is still very raw. He has gotten by on his elite athleticism and shot blocking skills, but still has no post game to speak of. He only averaged 11 points his senior year of high school and was non-existent in this all-star game. With Fab Melo and Baye Moussa-Keita already in place, he is going to have to earn his playing time. I'm not sure he makes much of an impact his freshman season. Hopefully he matures and uses playing time as motivation.

PG Quinn Cook (Duke) - Assuming Irving leaves, Cook is going to start at point guard next year alongside Austin Rivers. Cook is an undersized guard, but is a great competitor. I saw him play while he was still at DeMatha in his junior year and he had a scorer's mentality. Over the summer, though, he got a chance to lead USA's U17 team and scored 7.5 points to go along with 7.4 assists. I'd like to see more of the playmaking ability at Duke, as he will need to create for the shooters that surround him (Curry, Rivers, and Dawkins). While Cook is clearly not the best point guard prospect in terms of the NBA, he can have a very good college career and eventually land in the league.

SF Michael Gilchrist (Kentucky) - Taking home Co-MVP honors of the all-star game was Mike Gilchrist, who had 16 points, 12 boards, and four assists. His statline is a good representation of his game - Gilchrist does everything on the court to help his team win. He truly is a valuable player and will get a chance to show off his role playing abilities on a stacked Kentucky team. He is the perfect complementary player, being compared to Scottie Pippen, with his work on the glass and defensively. He also has some of the passing ability, but he isn't an elite level athlete. He has minimal downside and should be a lottery pick when he declares.

SG PJ Hairston (North Carolina) -  Hairston had an impressive week in Chicago. He competed in both the dunk and 3-pt contest, showing skill in both areas. In the actual game, he had 15 points including a few deep threes. He is going to be a great 3-pt shooter in college, with a high release. I like him better than Bullock because I see him as a smarter player with better athleticism. He has a stronger body and can finish with a lot of power. He's a sleeper of mine for the first round next year.

PF James McAdoo (North Carolina) - McAdoo made his presence known tonight, finishing with 17 points on 8-13 shooting. Like the box score suggests, he is an efficient player with a great feel for the game. He created opportunities for him self by playing the passing lanes and forcing turnovers. He handles the ball well for a power forward, complete with a solid post game. He needs to add strength so he can get better position, but as Dave Telep said, he is one of the few in this class that can carry a college team sooner rather than later.

C Johnny O'Bryant (LSU) - It was hard not to notice O'Bryant out there. He tried to show off his offensive game, but instead showed raw ability. Like DeMarcus Cousins when he was in high school, O'Bryant doesn't take advantage of his size enough. He focuses on spin moves and making plays off the dribble. While he does have a surprisingly quick first step, he is out of control and out of his element in that situation. I like his energy, but he has to learn to use his body to become a powerful force inside. Right now he uses it poorly and had his shot blocked at least once because of it. He needs to go up strong and finish with dunks - not fadeaways!

Stay tuned tomorrow for thoughts on Plumlee, Scott, Birch, Dawson, Kabongo, Nash, Rivers, Teague, and Zeller.