Examining the Weaknesses of Title Contenders

This has been a year of upsets and parity in college hoops, making it one of the most fun seasons in awhile to follow. There is no media darling who is projected to waltz to the final four and plenty of mid-major teams capable of pulling off early round upsets. All of the top teams have noticeable weaknesses and could be out before the Sweet 16 if they draw the wrong team. With that said, here is a look at what the top teams DON'T want to see awaiting them come Selection Sunday.

Indiana - Indiana is my favorite to win it all as of now, but they still have their flaws. Away from Assembly Hall, the Hoosiers have been suspect to coming out flat and lacking the intimidation factor they have at home. They have lost to a couple of halfcourt teams - Wisconsin, Butler, Minnesota, and nearly falling to Georgetown - and have struggled a lot with physical play inside. Just this week, Trevor Mbakwe proved that if you punch Cody Zeller in the mouth, he will be tentative the rest of the game. And with Christian Watford playing next to him, there is plenty of room to score in the paint. Making Indiana defend for 35 seconds is key. Each of their loses have come when teams chose to slow the pace down and attack the middle of the Hoosier's defense. Another thing that is helpful to beat Indiana is having a good pair of guards and and big man inside that can deter Indiana from getting to the foul line. The Hoosiers lead the nation in free throw attempts.

Duke - Getting Ryan Kelly back certainly helps their problems as he will create space for Plumlee inside on offense while also stabilizing the defense. Kelly takes a lot of pressure off Curry and Plumlee, who were the only two consistent options they had. And with Plumlee's limited offensive game and Curry's size, it wasn't hard to key on them and slow them down. Now the attention focuses to the defensive end, specifically the guards, were they are undersized and lack the swagger of previous teams. In the past, Duke had guys like Jay Williams, Chris Duhon, DeMarcus Nelson, and Nolan Smith leading the defense and slapping the floor while daring an opponent to drive on them. Now they have Curry and Cook - neither very intimidating - and both have been very susceptible to allowing 3-pters over their head. Teams with good shooting guards should provide them problems and if you lack good guards at all - you will also have a chance against them. Maryland beat them partially because Duke guard's were unable to capitalize on the unforced turnovers by the Terps and transition opportunities. Curry and Cook aren't guys who will pressure guards into mistakes.

Gonzaga - One thing that will improve your chances in beating the Bulldogs is having quick guards. Pierre Jackson, Marcus Smart, Brandon Paul, and Chris Anderson have all been able to shake up Gonzaga's defense and get them off balance. Kevin Pangos isn't especially quick laterally and with no shot blockers inside, there isn't much to deter slashers from getting into the lane. But simply getting into the lane with a quick guard won't be enough to beat them. Gonzaga has plenty of offensive firepower and the opposition will need to respond with hot shooting from outside the arc. Thats how Illinois made Gonzaga look more beatable than they have appeared the rest of the year - they took advantage of their slow perimeter defense to get into the lane and then knocked down the open jumpers that came out of it. Opponents have a great assist to turnover ratio against the Zags and there will be plenty of good point guards in the tournament that could give them trouble.

Michigan - All you have to do is stop Trey Burke. Ok, it is not that easy unless your name is Aaron Craft. But there has been framework laid out by other teams that has been successful. Illinois and Indiana have given Burke trouble by switching on every ball screen. Burke struggled to get his shot off over taller defenders, yet still settled for many jumpers. If you get Burke taking long contested twos the entire game, you don't complain. Michigan is a team that is very perimeter oriented and loves to space the floor. Switching on screens and sticking to your man will help negate what Michigan tries to do by spreading out the floor and  drawing extra defenders for kickouts to open shooters. The last thing you want to do is allow a guy like GRIII or Nik Stauskas to get open looks against you and start to get confident. On the other side of the ball, Michigan struggles with ball screens themselves where the can find themselves out of position from being too aggressive hedging. You can get good looks from outside against them and big men like Cody Zeller have killed them rolling off screens. You want big men who are good in pick and roll action and who can also rebound the ball. Michigan State and Wisconsin have taken advantage of Michigan's lack of size inside. Another weakness - Michigan is one of the least experienced teams in the nation.

Miami - The constant theme surrounding Miami this season is how good they are when they are healthy. Up until their past two losses, they had a legitimate excuse for their previous slip-ups. Durand Scott missed the first game of the year while Reggie Johnson didn't play during the tournament in Hawaii. Another thing people forget is Durand Scott played the Indiana State and Arizona games with a messed up ankle. The thing is, is depth is part of the game and Miami doesn't have it. If one of their key players gets in foul trouble, they could be in big trouble. A team that has a knack for getting to the line could force Miami to use some players that rarely get off the bench. In their worse loss of the year to Wake Forest, the Demon Deacons did just that - forcing Julian Gamble out of the game early while Rion Brown finished with 4 fouls. Miami has handled bigger teams just fine as they have some great big MEN (emphasis on men) of their own, but guys like Travis McKie, Brandon Ashley/Grant Jerrett, Ryan Kelly, and Indiana's cast of big men all are big men who spend a lot of time on the perimeter. Those have been the teams Miami has struggled against. You aren't going to be more athletic or tougher in the paint against Miami so there is no point in trying - the teams that have a shot at beating them are the teams that will play away from that and connect on a lot of shots from beyond the arc.

Michigan vs Indiana

Quick thoughts after Indiana beat Michigan 81-73 in Assembly Hall


- Cody Zeller looked like an All-American tonight. His defense gets underrated because he isn't necessarily a game changer at the next level, but he is one of the smartest big men in college basketball. I criticize a lot of center prospects for their lack of awareness on defense despite their strong physical attributes but Zeller is the opposite. He does the things that I'd like to see guys like Alex Len and Nerlens Noel do. He defends the pick and roll extremely well, protects the rim with his footwork, and plays good post defense. Zeller was also aggressive in attacking the boards on both ends of the court and finished strong on multiple putback jams.

Zeller's motor was cranked all the way up in this one and made quite a few hustle plays. He is always good at getting out in transition and going after loose balls. Indiana tends to go stretches without getting him the ball, but when he does get it, he did a great job making plays tonight. He is surprisingly quick putting the ball on the court and graceful shooting his version of the leaner. Zeller also has been connecting on his 2-pt jumpshots at a high rate recently. The hype around Zeller as a potential #1 pick has disappeared, but his value is still firmly in the lottery. Tonight's game was one of this best of his career.

- A lot of people suggested that Oladipo would garner the assignment of covering Trey Burke in this one. Oladipo started the game on Hardaway Jr and only ended up on Burke on a few possessions. Indiana was still able to slow down Burke without Oladipo . Ohio State set the blueprint on how to take away Burke's options off screens and Indiana followed suite with their own style. Will Sheehey covered Burke a lot and was able to play off him a bit and force him into jumpshots. Zeller and Watford were also big in stopping the pick and roll game - as mentioned before, Zeller is one of the best in the game at hedging on the perimeter. Burke had very little room to attack the lane and ended up having to take contested jumper after contested jumper. He finished the night shooting 9-24 from the field while half his shots came from behind the arc.

- Oladipo came out of the gate on a mission. For the first ten minutes of the game, he had Dick Vitale ready to compare him to Michael Jordan. Oladipo's athleticism and energy continue to form a magical combination that goes unmatched by anyone in the country. He was stifling on defense. He brought the ball all the way up court with a full head of steam and didn't stop until he was at the rim. Oladipo doesn't have great handles, but he manages to change directions with the ball quickly and has no problem getting by people. It seems like he is always on the verge of turning it over yet he manages to either finish it himself or find an open man out of the corner of his eye. Despite his lack of handles, Oladipo has become a great playmaker with the ball in his hands.

- Glenn Robinson finished with an 0fer tonight while playing every single minute of the game. Dick Vitale mentioned quite a few times that he needed to step up and make plays, but that just isn't his game. Robinson III has relied on Burke to break down the defense for much of the year and his lack of points was a direct result of Burke not getting into the lane. Robinson III is mainly a catch and shoot type player at this point who can also crash the boards once the defense is broken down. His lack of ability to create or step up shouldn't come as a surprise if you've watched him also season. Robinson III is a high efficient scorer, but not a creative one.

- With Jordan Morgan limited with a bad ankle, Mitch McGary was able to see the floor more and made his presence known. He did a great job denying entry passes and coming up with steals. McGary plays with a high motor, can bang in the paint, and looked good running the court in transition. He was one of the better players on the court tonight for Michigan. He continues to get more playing time and his 28 minutes was a season high - and those coming against Indiana should mean something.

- Yogi Ferrell will be one of the best point guards in the country within the next year. He was inefficient in non-conference play because he couldn't get his shots to fall, but has hit 9 long balls in his last 4 games. Ferrell is incredibly quick with great handles and looks very comfortable in pick and roll situations.

Introducing Glenn Robinson III

In the biggest game of the night, especially from an NBA draft perspective, Trey Burke led the way with 17 points. Steven Adams only played 10 unspectacular minutes. Hardaway was Michigan's second leading scorer with 16 points for Michigan, who won a close one 67-62.

But Glenn Robinson III will be the biggest mover on my big board after last night. Before last night, I had him ranked 27th. I hadn't seen him enough to feel comfortable moving him higher than that, but I had seen him enough for him to stand out to me.

After a early blocked shot in the first half, I acknowledged on twitter that I probably had him too low. I actually had felt that all along, but there is no sense is rushing things.

But now?

Now, I'm ready to move him up towards the lottery. At this point, finding holes in his game is simply nitpicking. Someone tweeted last night that GRIII is better than Shabazz and I surprisingly couldn't argue. I couldn't point out flaws in Robinson's game. There really aren't even many things to make you have the slightest doubt that he will be a great player.

Part of it may be expectations. Shabazz is expected to save UCLA while all Robinson has to do his pick his spots.

But Robinson has been excellent in that role. He was a late bloomer in high school and analysts questioned his aggressiveness on offense. He wasn't the player who would go off for 40 points like Shabazz. But Robinson was efficient and knew how to play on the offensive end.

And boy is that evident now. Robinson has shown a terrific feel on offense - his awareness and ability to pick his spots is off the charts. Its early, but I have yet to see him out of control or force up a shot. His points come so effortlessly. Everything he does reminds you of a prototypical SF.

Right now, Robinson is shooting 64.5% from the field and hitting 3s at a 50% clip. His jumpshot looks very good and he always displays perfect balance when going up for a shot. He has shown the ability to put it on the floor for one or two dribbles to either side. He's hitting his jumpers at an exceptional rate, as thats where a good percentage of his field goals are coming from.

But only 25% are from long range. Robinson is far from a spot up shooter. He uses his mind to get shit shot attempts. He also does a nice job cutting to the hoop and hitting the offensive glass. His body has come a long way to the point where it is actually a strength. He can finish through contact and has the potential to be a great rebounding wing.

His game is just so mature for his age. And he's only 18.

No need to jump the gun, but as the season goes on Robinson's hype should increase dramatically. His numbers may not stay the way they are, but even a 18 year old SF with a perfect frame and great touch on a top 5 team....

posting a line of 14ppg on over 50% shooting and 40% from 3? With 6 boards per game and a positive A/TO ratio?

There will come a point when more people start to ask what Shabazz can do that Robinson can't. And once that happens, maybe Robinson could even push himself into the top 5.

Honestly, the sky is the limit with this kid.

Scouting Report: Trey Burke

Height: 6'0''
Wingspan: 6'5''
Weight: 185lbs
Bday: 11/12/1992

Team: Michigan
Class of 2015 (Sophomore)

Trey Burke stepped in his freshman year at Michigan with big shoes to fill. He had to replace Darius Morris at point guard who left early for the draft. Burke exceeded all expectations and not only filled Morris' spot, but arguably filled it better than Morris himself could do.

John Beilein runs a very team-oriented and complex offense in Ann Arbor. The aforementioned Darius Morris struggled his freshman year adjusting to it - only average 4 points in over 20 minutes of player. That is not unusual for a young player in such an advanced system. Morris eventually got the hang of it and showed remarkable improvement in his second year which led to him coming from nowhere to being an early entry candidate. 

Trey Burke isn't going to sneak up on anyone this coming year following a season where he averaged 15 points and nearly 5 assists. Beilein ended up trusting Burke so much that he added in plays for him that were more pro-style oriented as opposed to Beilein's usual strict offensive system. Burke responded by leading the Wolverines to a #4 seed in the NCAA tournament before being upset in round 1 by Ohio. That game cooled off Burke's stock and could be the main reason why he is back for a second go at college basketball. Burke has been busy this summer, participating in the LeBron James Skills Academy and drawing rave reviews as perhaps the best point guard there. And what may have helped him even more was that he was measured with a 6'5'' wingspan - which is solid for a point guard.

Burke's game is very mature for his age. As I touched on already, he has a very high IQ and learns quickly. He reads defenses well and has been very competitive dating back to the days where a pre-teen Jared Sullinger and him battled all day long in various competitions. The coaching by the elder Sullinger also helps explain why Burke already plays like a battle-tested senior.

All the intangibles with Burke are there. He plays tough and with a great motor. He enjoys trying to get rebounds and managed to get over 4 rebounds per 40 minutes when adjusted for Michigan's slowed down tempo.

Michigan's tempo is something you need to keep in the back of your mind when looking at Burke and the rest of the Wolverines. They don't get as many possessions per game which brings their numbers down to earth. But if you look at Burke's 40 minute pace adjusted stats, he averaged 17.7 points and 5.5 assists.

Scottie Reynolds
Terrell Stoglin
Kyrie Irving
Derrick Rose
Dominic James
John Wall
Nick Calathes

Those 7 names are the only guys who scored and assisted more than Burke during their freshman year at a Big 6 school (since 2001). Burke did this playing next to Tim Hardaway who can be hard to play next to as a point guard.

Burke creates his offense with deceptive quickness and a great understanding of the game. Burke does his best off the pick and roll. He is quick, but his first step isn't top notch so he does better when he has space to get a running start. After his first step, the following steps are elite. Not because of the speed of them, but because of the different ways he can attack. He stays under control and can easily pull up for a jumper or take it to the rim. Burke has great body control and has a body that is able to absorb contact. His mid-range jumper is good, although overall he tends to shoot his jumper on the way down. He does a great job shooting off the dribble. He likes to use one or two dribbles to get his feet underneath him and then pull up. With his size, he should quicken up his release some. He doesn't have deep range on his jumper, but did shoot 35% from the college 3 on five attempts per game. It will be interesting to see how that translates to the NBA line. I don't think he will step into the NBA right away and be a big threat from downtown with his current mechanics.

Burke is a good athlete, but not great and far from the elite tier of the Westbrooks, Walls, and Roses. The combination of his size and lack of elite athleticism will be his biggest red flag when it comes time for him to be drafted. It is a legitimate concern, but it is not a death sentence. Jameer Nelson, DJ Augustin, Isaiah Thomas, Jose Calderon, Darren Collison, and others have all overcome similar questions.

Burke is quick and fast once he gets up to speed, He is also strong and has arms that help make up for his short stature. He may also have the best basketball IQ of any of the aforementioned players, although Augustin and Collison both ran a team very well in college. He has the strength, smarts, and competitiveness that will help him overcome his size.

Although Burke doesn't get a lot of transition opportunities, Burke is equally good running the break as he is in the halfcourt offense. He can push the ball and is able to throw nice lead bounce passes to his bigs that get out and run. His lack of explosiveness makes him more of a passer in these situations as he isn't a one man fast break ala John Wall, but he is effective.

Burke is also extremely shifty in the halfcourt game to go along with his ability to change speeds and excellent body control. His play inside the 3-pt line is wonderful. He needs to finish better, but that is nitpicking. He tends to leave shots short on the rim. A deadly floater is a very realistic option for Burke. He will have to find other ways to finish amongst the trees and Burke's great control should allow him to develop the floater with more repetitio. He already uses one, but it isn't automatic. Also, part of what makes Burke a good driver is his fearlessness and relentlessness.

Burke is not scared of contact inside. He doesn't go to the line at a great rate though. He also is only an average free throw shooter, sitting on a 74% mark last season. Burke is able to find teammates off drives, but sometimes when he doesn't have a clear lane to the basket, he can dribble with his head down while looking to figure out a way to get to the hoop. That is part of Burke's relentlessness attitude, as he won't be denied penetration. I am not saying he forces things, but he will overdribble at times and lose the ball. And then there is the head down thing when he is trying to find a look at the rim.

Defensively, Burke should continue to add strength to his already solid frame in order to keep taller guards from posting him up. That shouldnt be much of a problem. His length and competitiveness projects him to be a solid defender, although his athleticism prevents him from being a plus defender and play maker. He willingly will help out on the boards.

Overall, Burke is a true point guard who is smart enough to adapt to the NBA game and figure out how to be successful. He has visible question marks that will prevent his stock from elevating to high, but I think he should find his way into the first round. Anywhere between 16-30 sounds reasonable. Michigan should be a contender with Burke and Hardaway in the backcourt and McGary and Morgan up front. They need to find some shooters too replace Novak, Douglass, and Smotrycz though. The biggest worry Burke should have is less floor spacing this year. That is something to look for as they lose three shooting specialists and replace them with Mitch McGary who operates strictly in the paint. Should be an interesting test. Without the upperclassmen, Burke will also have an opportunity to stand in as more of a leader, something I doubt he will have trouble with.

Burke tested the waters last year so it seems likely that he will declare with the intentions of staying in this season.