2013 Small Forwards Prospects By the Numbers

A week ago, we took a loot at the point guard prospects by the numbers. Now we will see how the small forward prospects grade out based off the numbers provided by hoop-data.com. I excluded Otto Porter from this study as I view him as the best small forward prospect by a considerable margin.

*For Glen Rice Jr, I used his data from his previous year at Georgia Tech.

% of Shots at the Rim

Carrick Felix - 43%

James Ennis - 35%

Solomon Hill - 27%

Robert Covington - 25%

Shabazz Muhammad - 24%

Glen Rice Jr - 21%

Deshaun Thomas - 20%

Adonis Thomas - 18%

FG% at the Rim

Glen Rice Jr - 76%

Deshaun Thomas - 74%

James Ennis - 72%

Carrick Felix - 71%

Shabazz Muhammad - 65%

Robert Covington - 64%

Solomon Hill - 63%

Adonis Thomas - 62%

% Assisted at the Rim

Adonis Thomas - 58%

Shabazz Muhammad - 58%

Carrick Felix - 56%

Deshaun Thomas - 48%

Robert Covington - 44%

James Ennis - 41%

Glen Rice Jr - 34%

Solomon Hill - 14%

% Shots 2-pt Jumpers

Adonis Thomas - 59%

Shabazz Muhammad - 53%

Deshaun Thomas - 45%

Robert Covington - 40%

Glen Rice Jr - 37%

Solomon Hill - 31%

James Ennis - 24%

Carrick Felix - 19%

FG% 2pt Jumpers

Solomon Hill - 40%

Glen Rice Jr - 40%

Adonis Thomas - 39%

Deshaun Thomas - 39%

Shabazz Muhammad - 37%

Carrick Felix - 34%

James Ennis - 31%

Robert Covington - 25%

% 2-pt Jumpers Assisted

Adonis Thomas - 54%
Shabazz Muhammad - 47%
Deshaun Thomas - 43%
Robert Covington - 41%
Carrick Felix - 32%
Solomon Hill - 23%
Glen Rice Jr - 17%

James Ennis - 14%

% of 3-pt Shots

Solomon Hill - 42%
Glen Rice Jr - 42%
James Ennis - 41%
Robert Covington - 38%
Carrick Felix - 37%
Deshaun Thomas - 35%
Adonis Thomas - 24%
Shabazz Muhammad - 23%

3-pt FG%

Solomon Hill - 39%
Carrick Felix - 38%
Robert Covington - 38%
Shabazz Muhammad - 38%
Deshaun Thomas - 35%
Glen Rice Jr - 34%
James Ennis - 33%
Adonis Thomas - 29%

% of 3-pt Shots Assisted

Shabazz Muhammad - 100%
Carrick Felix - 96%
Deshaun Thomas - 96%
Adonis Thomas - 92%
Robert Covington - 87%
Solomon Hill - 82%
James Ennis - 68%
Glen Rice Jr - 68%

Observations

James Ennis - James Ennis stands out in this group as a finisher which comes to no surprise. He's the best athlete among the 8 prospects and his team pushed the ball with every chance they could get. You can tell that his team lacked any kind of halfcourt structure on offense which forced Ennis to create more than he should have to. Even though Ennis isn't a good ball handler, he was forced to create a large amount of his jumpshots. He does have a quick step back jumper move, but that isnt his game. Playing in a halfcourt setting in the NBA will be a big adjustment for him. He doesn't have a mid-range game and relies on circus shots in the lane. He will have to improve his jumper. He hit 3s at a good rate but his release has to get quicker.

Carrick Felix - Felix is the most similar to Ennis and both of their strengths are more on the defensive end. Felix played in a much more structured offense however, which complimented his strengths well. He didn't have to create at all and while he also lacks a middle game, he wasn't put in a situation where he had to score off the dribble. Like Ennis, he is a real solid finisher at the rim. He has also turned himself into a good spot up 3-pt shooter. I view Ennis as a better prospect than Felix because of his athletic edge and added playmaking ability.

Solomon Hill - Hill is one of the worst finishers at the rim in the group, but makes up for it with his polished mid-range game. He has the best floor game of the group and has the most versatile offensive attack. He doesn't have to get all the way to the rim to score. He also tested out as the best shooter in the group by leading in both 2-pt% and 3-pt% while taking a higher volume of 3s than anyone. He's a good spot up shooter but also can get his shot off the dribble.

Glen Rice Jr - The more you look at Glen Rice Jr, the more you see how much the situation at Georgia Tech prevented him from showing his true potential. Rice Jr had to create almost all his shots at Georgia Tech as he was near the bottom in assisted shots in all 3 categories. He was also the best finisher at the rim and in the mid-range area, despite not having the advantage of getting any easy baskets. The one area Rice Jr doesn't show well here is 3-pt shooting, but he might actually be the best shooter out of the 8. He proved this year in the D-League that he has no problem with the NBA 3-pt line.

Shabazz Muhammad - There is a big concern with Shabazz's ability to get to the rim based off these numbers. He was in the bottom half in terms of % of shots at the rim while receiving more assisted plays at the rim than anyone. Considering Shabazz also scored a lot of offensive rebounds, the numbers prove the Muhammad was unable to put the ball on the floor and get all the way to the rim at UCLA. He also seemed incapable of creating room for his jump shots. All of his 3-pt makes were assisted and he trailed only Adonis Thomas in most 2-pt jumpers assisted. His mid-range game, however, does show promise.

Deshaun Thomas - Thomas didn't really standout in any one category. We know he can shoot the ball, but he didn't shoot it at an exceptional clip. And there is a big concern with his ability to get shots off at the next level. A lot of his shots were assisted and he doesn't really have any reliable moves to get his shot up. As a small forward at the next level, he will struggle to shoot over longer defenders due to his lack of quickness and height. He did convert well at the rim in limited attempts, but that isnt his game.

Adonis Thomas - Thomas' numbers at the rim couldn't be any more. Despite shooting less at the rim than anyone and having the highest percentage of his shots assisted, Thomas still was last in converting at the rim. Thats a red flag and very puzzling for someone with his size and athleticism. These numbers scream lack of aggression. He did fair well in the mid-range area, which passes the eye test when watching him as well. Thomas will also need to improve his range as he shot worse from 3 this year than anyone.

Robert Covington - For a guy his size and playing against the competition he did, Covington really didn't show as well at the rim as you'd like to see. More concerning was his FG% on 2-pt jumpers since he projects to be a jump shooter at the next level. He ranked last in that area by a fair margin. Tennessee State needed a guy who could create shots this season and he proved that he struggled in that area. Still, Covington brings a nice combination of athleticism and outside shooting that could eventually get him into the NBA.

After watching more film on each of these prospects and taking a look at them by the numbers, here are my personal revised rankings:

1. Glen Rice Jr (late lottery to mid-first round)
2. Shabazz Muhammad (mid-first round)
3. Solomon Hill (early second round)
4. Adonis Thomas (early second round)
5. James Ennis (second round)
6. Deshaun Thomas (second round)
7. Carrick Felix (second round to undrafted)
8. Robert Covington (second round to undrafted)

Others worth noting: James Southerland, Rodney Williams, Will Clyburn

Scouting Report: Solomon Hill

Solomon Hill is a known commodity in the college basketball community at this point and has developed a reputation as a hardworker throughout his career. Even back in high school, Hill started off as an undersized mid-major forward who was working on becoming more perimeter oriented. He eventually became a top 100 recruit and landed at Arizona, where his versatility made him into one of the best players in the Pac-12.

Solomon Hill started off as the "other forward" on Arizona, playing alongside fellow class of 2009 prospect, Derrick Williams. Williams, of course, left after his sophomore year and ended up being taken as the number two overall pick in the draft.

At the time, they were fairly interchangeable on both sides of the ball between both forward spots. Williams took over the team, became a star, and overshadowed Solomon Hill in the process. Since then, Williams hasn't necessarily lived up to expectations in the NBA and has proven to be more of a fit at power forward than on the perimeter.

Hill has benefitted from staying in college and noticeably improving every year. Like Williams, Solomon Hill has great intangibles and a strong work ethic. He has transformed himself into a guy who played within 15 feet of the basket his first couple of years, to becoming strictly a perimeter player this season. He has improved both his volume and percentages each year from behind the arc as well as his assisting and A/TO ratio.

At this point in his development, Hill is definitely closer to a legit small forward prospect than a tweener. His ball handling has become a strength, he shoots the ball with his feet set very well, and he has always had good passing skills and feel for the game.

As an athlete, I have some reservations about Hill's ability to play the same game in the NBA that he currently plays in college. He doesn't possess good quickness and isn't explosive off the bounce. In college, he makes up for that with a vast array of moves. He utilizes hesitations, ball fakes, and can use a spin move in the lane while maintaining perfect balance. Hill also uses a jumpstop a lot, something you don't see a lot of players using nowadays. Hill is solid at changing directions on drives as well, but his moves aren't quick.

With these moves, Hill is able to manuever himself anywhere on the court while being under complete control. Thanks to his strength, he doesn't have to be quick to the rim. He can also put his head down and bully his way into the lane at times. He doesn't get great separation all the time, but has more than enough strength to muscle up shots in the lane. He also has an arsenal of post moves from his early career and hits the turnaround jumper with consistency. Everything Hill does with the ball is very smooth and under control, albeit a little mechanical.

In the NBA, it will get tougher to rely on those moves. Not only will it be harder for him to get by defenders and use strength, but it will be harder for him to finish in the paint. Hill doesn't have great height for a small forward and he will need to do a much better job at drawing contact. Hill only got to the line 3.5 times per game, despite driving into the lane a lot. A lot of it has to do with his ability to avoid avoid contact with pump fakes, but it also shows that he's not explosive going straight to the cup.

The good thing with Hill is, he's not a guy who needs the ball in his hands to be successful. He's also effective as a spot up shooter and moving without the basketball. He can cut to the rim and finish in traffic. He's also a fairly explosive jumper off of two feet, although he isn't elite. His explosiveness at the rim is better than his first step, lateral quickness, or ability to change directions. He's more creative and skilled than guys with similar profiles like Sam Young, Alonzo Gee, David Noel, Denham Brown, and Joey Graham.

Speaking of lateral quickness, that is another one of my concerns with him translating to the next level. Hill has been able to hang his hat on his solid defense in college, but how much of it will translate? His wingspan is only average for a small forward at 6-9.75 and he doesn't have the speed side to side to compensate for it.   Hill reminds me of Sam Young from a physical and athletic perspective, but Young has almost a 2 inch longer wingspan. I don't doubt that Hill will be a good defender, but will he be a good enough defender to overcome his average scoring output?

Overall, Hill does possess a lot of the qualities of a solid role player. With the success teams have found in drafting experienced SFs in the second round, you can be sure the Hill will hear his name called on draft night. Guys like Chandler Parsons and Jimmy Butler have shined in past weeks and should help his stock. However, Im just not convinced he is the same type of player either of those two are. He isnt as fluid or tall as Parsons (both are great passers, but Parsons passing ability has translated to the NBA because he can still see over defenses, Hill will have a tougher adjustment) or as great of a defender as Jimmy Butler. Hill needs something to hang his hat on at the next level and you can be sure he will continue to improve his game. He is a guy you can't count out and he deserves to have his name called on draft night.

Thursday's Sweet 16 Preview

March Madness continues tomorrow with 4 more games to decide who will advance to the Elite 8.

Marquette vs Miami (FL)

Top Prospects: Shane Larkin (59), Kenny Kadji (89), Durand Scott (90), Vander Blue (121)

Marquette remains standing after coming out on top in two of the most exciting games of the tournament - vs Butler and Davidson. Vander Blue has been beyond clutch in each of the games and has drawn a deeper focus from NBA scouts. He's basically living off the tournament hype though, and considering he's shooting below 50% and has 6 turnovers to only 2 assists in this two game stretch, this "breakout performance" isn't even that impressive. Yes he has been clutch and Blue is a guy who can make even the toughest of baskets, but he has a lot of other issues to overcome. He struggles to find and create easy shots and his efficiency has suffered. He's also not a very good shooter, only showing signs of improvement this year. And an undersized scoring two guard who can't shoot tends to have an uphill battle to climb.

Blue will continue to try to climb up that hill against Miami and will likely draw the defensive attention of Durand Scott in this one. Scott is another undersized two guard who makes some impressive plays and hits tough shots, but struggles to be efficient and make simple plays. He has proven to be an intense defender this season though, and should provide Blue some trouble with his physical tools. Those tools make Scott the more intriguing prospect as he projects better as a defender and a finisher at the rim.

Arizona vs Ohio State

Top Prospects: Shannon Scott (49), Deshaun Thomas (55), LaQuinton Ross (69), Kaleb Tarczewski (70), Brandon Ashley (74), Solomon Hill (79), Aaron Craft (85), Nick Johnson (120)

This game features a lot of young prospects who could eventually find themselves in the first round, but are currently ranked rather low in rankings because the are viewed to be at least a year away. Two of the more NBA ready prospects in this game will be Deshaun Thomas and Solomon Hill, who could end up battling head to head for much of the game.

Arizona has been playing their best basketball as of late in large part because of a shift towards a smaller lineup. Solomon Hill has been playing a lot more PF - a position he played a lot last year when he averaged almost 8 rebounds per game and shot over 50% from the field. It will be interesting to see if he will look to attack Thomas in isolation situations. Hill has a very solid all-around game and has improved an area of his game each year. This year he's been a much better slasher than in years past. Thomas is more of a one dimensional player, but is great at the one thing he does - shoot. And he shoots often and in any situation. He's played tougher this season and it will be interesting to see who has the edge when it comes to rebounding and banging inside.

LaQuinton Ross had a big game against Iowa State, but he's still got a lot to learn. His defense stops him from getting more minutes and he takes too many uncalled for jumpers. But he's certainly one to watch and may have more potential than anyone in this game.

Syracuse vs Indiana

Top Prospects: Victor Oladipo (5), Cody Zeller, (7), Michael Carter-Williams (26), CJ Fair (43), James Southerland (117), Christian Watford (124), Will Sheehey (126)

Cody Zeller will face tons of length and bodies against the zone inside which is the exact kind of situations he's struggled with this season. Zeller tends to try to go right at shotblockers - which is what you are coached to do - but he just doesn't have the strength yet to finish with the contact. Zeller could excel in another spot against the zone though and that is at the foul line. We saw what Otto Porter and Gorgui Dieng could do in this spot and Zeller is another guy with a high IQ who can hit the jumper and pass from this spot. Zeller may be more aggressive than either of them when it comes to putting the ball on the floor and he could create open looks that way too. Zeller is a very good passer off the dribble, almost like a guard.

Watching Oladipo against the zone will be interesting too. He'll be asked to operate more in the halfcourt offense and his athleticism will be taken away from him against the zone. Oladipo will need to show the ability to get himself in the right spots to score and the skillset to be able to breakdown the zone. This game will be more of a chess match than he is used to, but he's a smart player. This game gives him a chance to showcase that.

CJ Fair has had a solid tournament for Syracuse and continues to be their most consistent offensive player. His perimeter game has developed a lot this year and he's extended his range to beyond the 3-pt line. Fair has always been able to shoot though and his small sample size from deep shouldn't be a reason to dismiss his shooting ability. Another big development in his game has been his off the dribble game. Thanks to a nice floater, his mid-range game has always been solid, but now he is willing to do more than simply just take one dribble and shoot a floater. He's getting more comfortable dribbling the ball and the next step for him is to be able to make plays for others. He'll have a big opportunity as "the guy" next year if he does come back to take yet another step in his development. He's an intriguing prospect who looks like an early second rounder at the moment.

LaSalle vs Wichita State

Top Prospects: None

No top prospects in this one, but Ill take the Shockers to advance to the Elite Eight.

Diamond Head Classic Recap

Over the Christmas break, the college basketball schedule was carried by the 8 team field out in Hawaii. Arizona highlighted the field and ended up taking home the trophy, but not before the battled San Diego State in a heated championship match. The Miami Hurricanes also were in the field.

Jamaal Franklin - I zeroed in on Franklin on defense during the tournament and came away impressed. He brings great intensity to that end of the floor and takes on the challenge of locking down the oppositions best player. Franklin is a tough competitor with good anticipation skills. He is always thinking out there on defense and attempting to read what the offense is doing in order to get an edge. Since he was on the opposition's best player most of the time, he had to run through a lot of screens and he looked for the best routes to take around them. He can get caught up in screens as he isn't the biggest guy, but he does have good strength for his frame. He looks like a cornerback on defense the way he stays on his toes and he actually hoped to go to the University of Florida as a wide receiver. It is obvious he has a football background. One concern is he has probably already done plenty of weight training throughout his career  and still lacks a impressive frame. There may not be much room for him to grow physically.

Offensively, Franklin has an old man's game and uses ball fakes and hesitations to his advantage. He plays with the referees in mind, always trying to draw a foul. He can also take his man into the post, where he is solid as long as he remembers to keep his pivot foot in place. He's a streaky shooter with improving form, but is having a bad year from behind the arc. He forces up a lot of bad outside shots. Franklin also is able to get all the way to the rim with explosive dunks thanks to his quick first step and shiftiness. His ability to get to the basket comes at a cost though - Franklin will turn it over a lot as well. The turnovers comes from his high, long dribbles and his lack of control going to the rim. He seems to get called for at least one charge a game.

Franklin was a problem child growing up and has learned to channel that energy on the basketball court. He still shows maturity issues at times - he picked up a DUI and flipped off fans last year. After a freshman season stuck behind Kawhi Leonard, he actually considered leaving SDSU for the draft. Instead, he learned for Leonard's work ethic and has transformed himself into a tireless worker.

Solomon Hill - Hill took away MVP honors for the event, showing an impressive all around game. He really stepped up in Arizona's lone close game against San Diego State and scored 21 big points. Him and Franklin battled much of the game.

Solomon Hill's improvement has been impressive over his stay at Arizona. His ball handling is now an apparent strength and at times he looks like a point forward on the court. With Arizona's freshman bigs coming in, he's become a pure perimeter player. He can weave his way through defenders, but he is slow at changing directions and is best when he just puts his head down and gets to the rim. His versatility in the post and on the perimeter make him a matchup nightmare in college. His jumper is also solid but he doesn't rely on it.

For Arizona's freshman, none of them look ready for the NBA Draft. But I'd say they came to the right place in order to prep for it. Arizona's staff has helped guys like Hill, Derrick Williams, and Kevin Parrom make big jumps. These guys just haven't gotten better at what they do - they all added skills they didn't have before. Ashley, Jarrett, and Tarczewski all have NBA potential and should be able to maximize their draft stock as a Wildcat.

For Miami, they were disappointing simply because Reggie Johnson was unable to play and Durand Scott suffered an ankle injury early on against Arizona. It slowed him down noticeably in the final two games and caused him to shoot a poor percentage. Scott and Miami were in line for a potential statement week in Hawaii, but instead came away with more doubters and more excuses.

Legit excuses, but excuses nonetheless. Their short bench has proven to be a major factor already with their injuries. First against Florida Gulf Coast without Scott and now in Hawaii. They have looked great when everyone has been healthy, but when one guy goes down, they are prone to losing to anyone. There is no doubt in my mind this is a NCAA tournament team that could make a Sweet 16 run, but they need to get there first. The pressure is on them as ACC play starts.

Scouting Notes: Texas Tech vs Arizona

Arizona headed into this game undefeated and ranked 9th in the country and for most hoops fans, this was their first exposure to them all year.

Texas Tech was also undefeated, but had spend their first 4 games beating up on cupcakes en route to averaging 89 points per game. Plenty of their players enjoyed eye-dropping per40 numbers that were finally put to the test versus the Wildcats.

Arizona ended up blowing out the Red Raiders 85-57 who was led by Nick Johnson's 18 point performance. Arizona has a good pool of draft prospects, but most are viewed as a year or two away. Because of that, Arizona has a bright future that has fans focused on what they could end up doing next year.

The present is now though and with UCLA faltering, Arizona may already be the best team in the west.

Scouting Notes:

Grant Jarrett - Jarrett has plenty of talented and showed potential as a pick and pop player tonight. Defensively, he looked slow laterally - looking much like a big forward than small. Jarrett has a lot of potential moving forward and came to the right place to hone his skills.

Brandon Ashley - Ashley was impressive today, showing a lot of heart and smarts. He can operate in the post and really knows how to use his frame to carve out space down low. He moves well without the ball  and was able to finish on cuts to the rim. This should be a good game to get Ashley going as he struggled with confidence in his first couple of games. He is another guy with good potential down the road.

Kaleb Tarcewzski - Tarcewzski is playing a big role for Arizona's top ten program and as a freshman 7 footer, he surprisingly isn't getting enough attention. Perhaps its east coast bias, but either way Tarcewzski may be the best freshman center in the country so far. His game is much more polished than the likes of Noel and Adams. He knows his role and does it very well. Tarcewzski is a beast on the boards and is tough to move in the paint. He has strong hands and does a good job keeping the ball above his waist - preventing him from getting stripped. Once Tarcewzski gets his hands on a board - its his. The big man also started the break with a nice outlet pass against Texas Tech, something that could be a strength for him. Offensively, Tarcewzski finishes with authority and is very efficient. He gets his team extra possessions and holds his position down low. Arizona doesn't look for him much on offense, but most of the time he is in position for an easy bucket.


Solomon Hill - Hill is the latest player that Sean Miller has seen grow tremendously under his watch. Hill has improved each year and done just about everything scouts have asked of him. He comes into this year in excellent shape, slimmed down 25 pounds since his first time he stepped on campus as a freshman. His improved conditioning level has him looking much more like a small forward prospect, enabling him to move laterally better and show much better activity throughout an entire game.

He has quietly become a very reliable 3-pt shooter, making 48 of 119 threes taken from the beginning of last season. It is obvious Solomon Hill is a gym rat who has put countless hours of work in - perhaps partially motivated by what former teammate Derrick Williams achieved.

In terms of ball handling ability, Hill also now looks very comfortable handling the ball. He has always been a solid straight line driver thanks to a good first step and strong frame, but he now has added some change of direction ability. In the lane, Hill still has his eyes on the rim and does a nice job finishing. He doesn't show much pull-up ability or change of direction in traffic. Then again, with his superior physical tools, he doesn't have to at this level.

Hill also still can take it down in the post and finish through contact as he certainly hasn't lost any strength after slimming down. Hill has done everything in his power to help his stock, but the biggest factor now working against him is his age - he will be 22 in March.

Nick Johnson - At 6'3'' with a modest wingspan, Johnson has the body of a combo guard and the game to match it. He has tremendous athleticism that really renders his average length obsolete on defense, as he can play the passing lanes well. Out in transition is where he thrives, showing off great speed and explosiveness. Johnson understands the value of running the court and gets a lot of easy baskets by running out on offense.

With his size, he definitely needs to be able to initiate offense and play some point guard at the next level. At Findlay Prep, he created offense, but never had to be a pure PG as he played alongside guys like Kabongo and Avery Bradley. There definitely is potential for him here. He is a good decision maker and runs the pick and roll well. Right now, his 5/1 assist to turnover ratio is a great sign moving forward.

Another thing I like about Johnson is his shooting ability. He can stroke it from 3-pt range and also off the dribble inside the arc. Last year, he shot poor percentages, but he should be more comfortable his freshman year. Part of his ineffectiveness last year was due to forcing up shots and with a better supporting cast this season, that won't be a problem.

Dejan Kravic - Kravic transferred to Texas Tech from York University in Canada. In Canada, he was one of the better rebounders and shot-blockers in the country. He is a 6-11 center with a decent 240 pound frame. Kravic acts as a skilled, lefty center and does have a nice shooting touch - hitting 8-10 free throws so far this year. He doesn't use his size as well as he should, choosing to play a game closer to the high post/3-pt area. While not a serious threat from deep, Kravic does have the ability to take centers off the dribble from the perimeter with his left hand. Tonight, he made a nice move to his left and ended up finishing the play with a right handed hook.

He has some skills and plays with good effort, but his offensive game wouldn't be efficient in the NBA. Defensively his motor is good and he can help on pick and rolls, but his shot blocking prowess doesn't seem to be as intimidating in the States. He gets pushed around and needs to show more fight. He is kind of in the mold of a poor man's David Andersen - who largely was a bust in the NBA. Luckily for Kravic, he will have plenty of opportunities overseas and he holds dual citizenship in both Canada and Bosnia.

Jordan Tolbert - A double-double machine, Tolbert plays much bigger than his 6-7 listed height. If anyone learned how to be tough from Billy Gillespie, he's the guy. Unfortunately for Texas Tech, Tolbert committed a lot of dumb fouls in the game and didn't get enough minutes to make an impact. In the first two minutes of the game he scored 4 points (one on a dunk after a teammate drove the lane and drew the defenders and the other on a hook shot), but those ended up being his only buckets of the game. This wasn't a good game to get a look Tolbert, but there will be plenty of more chances to get a look at the sophomore.