2011 NBA Draft Senior Rankings (#1-5)

The Portsmouth Invitational Tournament is now in the past as well as four college basketball seasons from each of these seniors, so the majority of their evaluation periods are over. Most of these players strengths and weaknesses are no mystery and scouts know what to expect from them. Ranking these players have a lot to do with personal preference over anything else. Most ceilings are relatively low and I wouldn't been surprised to hear that any of these guys are out of the league in three years. In the second round, where most of these guys will go, teams will either take a senior they feel very good about or take a shot with a guy that fills a need and fits their style. This list would look vastly different from team to team, but this is how I would rank them in general.

Top Five (Check back each week for the next five on the list)

1. Kenneth Faried - I've gone back and forth on him a few times. His rebounding, energy, work ethic, and athleticism are great. He is one of the best rebounders in the past ten years no matter what stat you look at, and everyone knows rebounding translates as well as any other stat to the next level. I'm not too worried about his size playing power forward. I think his offense will be better than most think. His scoring isn't pretty, but he gets the job done. In the college all-star game he took home MVP and looked impressive going up against Gary McGhee who is a great defender. He even drove all the way from the 3-pt line to the hoop - finishing with a dunk. His defense is actually what I worry most about. He played in a zone most of his career and didn't always have the best awareness. His energy level is promising, but he will have to body up guys better in the post.

2. Justin Harper - I wrote about Harper in March here. I'll take his shooting from the power forward spot over Jimmer's at point guard.

3. Jimmer Fredette - Mark it down that I'm what some would call a "Jimmer Hater", but I can't bring myself to rank him any lower than this. I think the chances are good that Nolan Smith turns out to be a more solid player, its just tough to disregard Jimmer's explosive scoring. His unique skills make him a more valuable pick than a the dime a dozen player that Nolan Smith is.

4. Nolan Smith - I've gone back and forth on Smith his entire college career. I was a fan of his while he was still figuring out the game and contributing in ways other than scoring. He broke out his last two seasons into a great college player, turning into a great scorer who was finally learning how to play point guard. His point guard skills still leave a lot to be desired, as he dribbles too much for his own shot, but it has nothing to do with him not being a wonderful teammate and locker room guy. I've watched him so many times over the years, waiting to see if he could breakout into a lottery prospect, but he was never able to convince me that he would be anything more of a backup. He does run the pick and roll well which will be even more important at the next level. He's not a point guard, nor is he a shooting guard, but he can do whatever is asked of him and fill a role. He can last in the league for awhile.

5. JaJuan Johnson - I like him and don't get a lot of the criticisms he gets from his detractors. You hear negative things about his defense, but Purdue was the 12th best defensive team in the nation according to kenpom and he was their sole post defender. Awards aren't to be taken as the gospel, but he did win the Big 10 defensive player of the year award this season. I understand that he doesn't have the strength to be as effective in the NBA, but he moves very well and has been well coached. He comes up with plenty of steals (0.9 spg) and blocks (2.3 bpg). The other negative I hear about him is his shot selection. I don't get that either. His shooting percentage went down below 50% for the first time since he had to make up for the loss of Robbie Hummel, but he never forced action with the dribble. He took some jumpshots early in the shot clock, mostly in rhythm, nothing that screamed "ballhog". He is a smart player who filled a role that his team needed him in. I don't see his shot selection being a problem in the NBA.

His athleticism and shooting touch are things that can't be taught and often leave scouts salivating. Johnson doesn't get the kind of respect an All-American should. He should get looks from playoff teams drafting in the late first round. Never underestimate what a good strength coach can do for a player.

Fit versus Need - Whats the difference?

One thing that irks me when discussing mock drafts is when people talk about what their team needs. They justify taking player X over another player because they already have a quality player at the potential draftees position. Looking back through these types of talk provides high comedy, as often times it leads teams to picking the worse player. The NBA draft is enough of a guessing game - get a guy you feel has the best chance to become a solid player.

Discussing needs at the top of the draft is especially cringe-worthy. We are talking about teams that failed to make the playoffs. They could use help anywhere. Seriously, should the Bobcats refrain from taking a power forward because they have Tyrus Thomas? Or DJ Augustin? Or with Cleveland, do they also ignore all power forwards since they house JJ Hickson on their roster? Seems like a great way to eliminate a good amount of the player pool to me.

For anyone making those arguments, do yourself a favor and go back a few years a look at rosters. Decent/solid starter types get worse, or leave for a new team often. Unless Blake Griffin is your PF, dont count out drafting a PF in the lottery.

People fail to realize that there are 48 minutes in a basketball game. Plenty of wings are interchangeable, along with bigs, so there can be 96 minutes at each. Its not hard to find starter minutes for three wings if they are all good - its not a bad problem to have. The NBA also allows trades which is a novel concept. Bottom feeder teams need to concentrate on getting quality pieces for their team, whether they need them or not. Trade chips are always useful and they can hold onto them for a couple of years until they are ready to make a run.

Because of that wall of text, you may believe that I think that every team's draft board should look the same then. Actually, quite the opposite. Style of play is a lot more important than need. Countless times a player has failed on one team and then bloomed on another. Coaching, teammates, minutes (which can be called need, but its a small part of a bigger equation), tempo, scheme are all factors. I'll break them down one by one.

Coaching - Coaches change as much as players, so some teams that go through coaches like underwear should disregard this. But you don't draft a player with a weak mental make-up to play with Jerry Sloan. Also, some teams have great big men coaches that have had success at developing raw big men. If you have on, you can pull the trigger on Keith Benson - maybe even in the 1st round. If not, let him go. He'll flop in your organization.

Teammates - If Im the Kings, I want to avoid drafting a kid with character issues. They have enough problems and dont have the kind of players to help someone out like that. Teams with strong locker rooms, like the Spurs, can afford to take a problem child. He'll learn quickly to either "put up" or "shut up". In addition, if you lack an energy/locker room guy, take one in the second round. If you have too many players that are selfish, dont add to the fire.

Minutes - Minutes are necessary for players to develop, some more so than others. Its a nice bonus to be able to give a player some playing time. For some guys, too much may break their confidence if they arent ready to be thrown into the fire. Others will lose confidence and/or interest if they are forced to ride the bench all year.

Tempo - This is pretty easy to explain and understand. There are halfcourt guys and fullcourt guys. If you are the Suns, Knicks, or Warriors look for a guy who can get up and down the court as opposed to a slow plodder. The Blazers shouldn't be drafting anyone who only scores in transition.

Scheme - This goes along with tempo and coaching, just more specific to individual teams. A popular example this year would be how Jordan Hamilton would transfer to Utah's flex offense. Hamilton plays in the same offense at Texas and his shooting makes him a good fit there.

There are other factors to look at, but dont make and break anything. All these are simply part of an equation that should effect each team's draft board. Like for the Raptors, they have a young wing that is more of a slasher. To complement him, they could look for another wing who can shoot. This becomes more of a factor if we are talking about complementing a star player. In Philly, Turner and Iguodala dont complement each other. Its up in the air whether it was a bad pick, although rumor has it that the 76ers might trade Iguodala in the offseason. With a high pick like that, its understandable to take the player everyone had pegged as the second best in the draft. My beliefs become more true the farther you go down the draft board. Top 5 should mainly be best player available.

Another thing to focus on is defense. Using the 76ers as an example, they have great perimeter defenders. Some may think that it would give them leeway in drafting a perimeter defender who cant defend. Quite the contrary, because a poor defender would render the rest of the strong defenders useless in the land of the NBA, where one-on-one matchups are exploited.

With great defensive bigs, though, you can lean on them to erase bad guard defense. And then there are the teams that are so bad defensively, that they seem to have lost interest in even trying to fix the problem. Teams like the Warriors are where you send the Jimmers of the world to have a good career of losing basketball.

One final thought is the change of pace pick. Using the 76ers again, all their bigs are the same. Brand, Hawes, Young, Speights, Songaila, Brackins, and Battie are all jump shooters who fail to provide a defensive presence. Adding a guy like John Henson would really change the feel to that group.

The right situation can make or break a player. Pre-draft rankings are only good for a general idea. Once players find their team, one can make a better guess at how the players career with play out.

Now go ahead and check out your favorite team's roster from a few years ago and tell me what you think.

Stock Attack: Terrence Jones

Current Consensus Projection: Lottery

Terrence Jones hit his freshman season with a head of steam this year, immediately planting himself in lottery discussions. After some huge games against Oklahoma (29pts 13boards) and Notre Dame (27pts 17boards) combined with a Irving injury and Barnes's struggle, he even received some support as the number one pick. He had the numbers, but to me, the numbers didnt exactly add up.

Now he has quietly comeback down to earth, while most still put him right outside of the top 5.  He's never been a top 5 pick in my mind, or even a lottery guy, and I feel like Ive already been somewhat justified in my beliefs. For one, Calipari has stated that he feels none of his players are ready for the NBA Draft. He didnt say that about Patterson, Wall, and Cousins. He's not the kind of coach that can sabotage players' stock for his own benefit.

But hey, if I relied on coaches to form opinions Id have Marshon Brooks pegged as the best scorer in the Big East and sure-fire first rounder, while believing that Kenneth Faried is the best thing since Dennis Rodman (credit to Rick Pitino for both). Ive taken in plenty of Terrence Jones games myself and see him having a rough transition into the league.

I have nothing against tweeners - if I did Id be attacking Vesely, Derrick Williams, and Kawhi Leonard too - but Terrence Jones college game thrives off of mismatches he wont see in the NBA. He faces up PFs and takes them off the dribble and takes smaller defenders into the post. I guess thats where the Lamar Odom comparisons come from, right?

But can he drive by small forwards or elite PFs?

He hasnt shown the skillset to make someone believe that he offers much variety offensively. He only drives  left. You wonder why his play dropped off going through the SEC a second time? Teams figured him out. Its not too hard. He can only drive left, he doesnt change directions well, and doesnt play smart team-oriented ball offensively. His shooting percentage has managed to drop. He's only shooting 43% from the floor now. It beats Harrison Barnes, but there is a big difference between them. Barnes has been scoring by using NBA moves, things that he will also be able to do at the next level. Also, Jones is a 3/4 while Barnes is a 2/3.

The rest of his offensive game isnt helping him. He can post guys up, but not even his biggest fans believe he will be a major post threat in the NBA. His jumper is ugly. He shoots 31% from 3 and 65% from the line. Jumpshots can always been fixed, but his needs a lot of work.

Lets get to the defensive end of the court. Who does he guard? The biggest thing that determines a tweener is the fact that they are in between postions not on offense, but on defense. Offenses can use tweeners to their advantage - on defense, they are often ostracized by opponents and exposed. In my opinion, Terrence Jones has a better shot at playing SF. He actually plays great on ball defense when given the opportunity. He wont be as good against NBA SFs, but I think he could be passable in terms of one on one defense. Too bad defense involves more than that, though, and that is where I question Jones's awareness and BBIQ. Time and time again, he will get himself out of positions trying to play help defense. Trying is the operative word because he usually just places himself in between ball and man without being in position to effect either. What ends up happening a lot of times is a skip pass to his man, which forces Jones to scramble back to his man. He closes out quick, but with no sense of defending the drive. He makes it very simple for the defender to catch the ball and use his momentum against him. He puts himself in these positions over and over again, which is frustrating to me that he doesnt recognize his bad positioning and ensuring close outs. Going along with that, he also tends to bite on play fakes and fall asleep and lose his man. He needs to show better commitment to all that defense in basketball entails - not just what he has to do when his man has the ball.

In the end, there are too many forwards out there that are better bets. Id take Kawhi Leonard, John Henson, Derrick Williams, Perry Jones, Jan Vesely, and possibly Tobias Harris before him. Those are just the combo guys. Other forwards Id take over him are Tyler Honeycutt, Harrison Barnes, Jared Sullinger, Tristan Thompson, Jordan Hamilton, and Marcus Morris. Coach Cal might be wrong, though, it might be best for Jones to leave before Kentucky's super class of forwards comes in to steal his minutes.

Scouting Report: Nikola Vucevic

Nikola Vucevic
6'10''
260lbs
PF/C
Junior
10/24/1990
Southern California
Bar, Montenegro

Nikola Vucevic is on his way up draft boards after a strong play in-conference to close out his junior season.

Vucevic has great size, might be even bigger than 6-10, and the wingspan that goes along with it. His size has made him a good college rebounder, but I dont see that as a big strength in the NBA. He cant rebound much outside of his area and his hands are a little shaky. Not much of an athlete either, I can see him being a average rebounder and defender but not much more.

His real strength is on offense, where he can work in the post and float out and shoot a jumper. He's a natural in the post, showing great footwork and moves. He makes it look easy. He has good strength and constantly battles for post position down low. Tough and competitive. He sees a lot of double teams and has proven to be a good passer out of them. Gets frustrated at times because of terrible guard play, he works so hard for position and his guards choose to chuck up shots instead. Still shows maturity in making the right decision whenever he has the ball.

I see some Mehmet Okur in his game. Better back to the basket player and less of a shooter. Similar capabilities defending and rebounding. Okur also had strength to defend inside, but lacked the lateral quickness to be more than average.