2011 NBA Draft Senior Rankings (#1-5)

The Portsmouth Invitational Tournament is now in the past as well as four college basketball seasons from each of these seniors, so the majority of their evaluation periods are over. Most of these players strengths and weaknesses are no mystery and scouts know what to expect from them. Ranking these players have a lot to do with personal preference over anything else. Most ceilings are relatively low and I wouldn't been surprised to hear that any of these guys are out of the league in three years. In the second round, where most of these guys will go, teams will either take a senior they feel very good about or take a shot with a guy that fills a need and fits their style. This list would look vastly different from team to team, but this is how I would rank them in general.

Top Five (Check back each week for the next five on the list)

1. Kenneth Faried - I've gone back and forth on him a few times. His rebounding, energy, work ethic, and athleticism are great. He is one of the best rebounders in the past ten years no matter what stat you look at, and everyone knows rebounding translates as well as any other stat to the next level. I'm not too worried about his size playing power forward. I think his offense will be better than most think. His scoring isn't pretty, but he gets the job done. In the college all-star game he took home MVP and looked impressive going up against Gary McGhee who is a great defender. He even drove all the way from the 3-pt line to the hoop - finishing with a dunk. His defense is actually what I worry most about. He played in a zone most of his career and didn't always have the best awareness. His energy level is promising, but he will have to body up guys better in the post.

2. Justin Harper - I wrote about Harper in March here. I'll take his shooting from the power forward spot over Jimmer's at point guard.

3. Jimmer Fredette - Mark it down that I'm what some would call a "Jimmer Hater", but I can't bring myself to rank him any lower than this. I think the chances are good that Nolan Smith turns out to be a more solid player, its just tough to disregard Jimmer's explosive scoring. His unique skills make him a more valuable pick than a the dime a dozen player that Nolan Smith is.

4. Nolan Smith - I've gone back and forth on Smith his entire college career. I was a fan of his while he was still figuring out the game and contributing in ways other than scoring. He broke out his last two seasons into a great college player, turning into a great scorer who was finally learning how to play point guard. His point guard skills still leave a lot to be desired, as he dribbles too much for his own shot, but it has nothing to do with him not being a wonderful teammate and locker room guy. I've watched him so many times over the years, waiting to see if he could breakout into a lottery prospect, but he was never able to convince me that he would be anything more of a backup. He does run the pick and roll well which will be even more important at the next level. He's not a point guard, nor is he a shooting guard, but he can do whatever is asked of him and fill a role. He can last in the league for awhile.

5. JaJuan Johnson - I like him and don't get a lot of the criticisms he gets from his detractors. You hear negative things about his defense, but Purdue was the 12th best defensive team in the nation according to kenpom and he was their sole post defender. Awards aren't to be taken as the gospel, but he did win the Big 10 defensive player of the year award this season. I understand that he doesn't have the strength to be as effective in the NBA, but he moves very well and has been well coached. He comes up with plenty of steals (0.9 spg) and blocks (2.3 bpg). The other negative I hear about him is his shot selection. I don't get that either. His shooting percentage went down below 50% for the first time since he had to make up for the loss of Robbie Hummel, but he never forced action with the dribble. He took some jumpshots early in the shot clock, mostly in rhythm, nothing that screamed "ballhog". He is a smart player who filled a role that his team needed him in. I don't see his shot selection being a problem in the NBA.

His athleticism and shooting touch are things that can't be taught and often leave scouts salivating. Johnson doesn't get the kind of respect an All-American should. He should get looks from playoff teams drafting in the late first round. Never underestimate what a good strength coach can do for a player.

The Curious Case of Justin Harper

Last year, Justin Harper was an afterthought. He put up very average numbers on a mid-major team. If you watched him play, you could see some potential - he had a great stroke from outside and moved well - but his numbers didn't match. I remember noticing his play in a game against Wake Forest last year as I was looking at Al-Farouq Aminu. He had ten points that game before fouling out in 22 minutes, but I was intrigued enough to look up his numbers online. After seeing his pedestrian numbers, I quickly dismissed him as a serious prospect to consider. Looking back now, it is hard to blame me or the rest of the draft community who did the same.

After all, Harper was a stretch four who could shoot but not much else. He wasn't even that good at his craft - shooting 34% from three and a mediocre 68% from the line. Now this brings up two questions that have to be answered. Can a guy that failed to distinguish himself in a non-BCS conference until his senior year really be that great of a player? And even more importantly, is he really THAT great of a shooter?

To answer the first question, I decided to make a list of all non-BCS prospect that have had any bit of success over the past four years. I eliminated guys who left before their junior year because it is reasonable to believe that they may have only had one good college season. That got rid of guys like Jordan Crawford, Gordon Hayward, and Luke Babbitt who all left after their sophomore season last year. Transfers like Darington Hobson also were not included for obvious reasons. By doing that, I came up with these 18 players.

Larry Sanders - CAA Defensive Player of the Year his sophomore year
Armon Johnson - 1st Team All-WAC his sophomore year
Steph Curry - 2nd Team All-American his sophomore year
Eric Maynor - CAA player of the year his junior year
Jermaine Taylor - All-Conference USA second team his junior year (POY his senior season)
Derrick Brown - 2nd Team All-A10 his junior year
Robert Vaden - 1st Team All-Conference USA his junior year
Lester Hudson - OVC Player of the year his junior year
Jason Thompson - 1st Team All-MAAC his junior year
Courtney Lee - 1st Team All-Sun Belt his sophomore year
George Hill - 1st Team All-Summit Conference his sophomore year
JR Giddens - MWC Co-POY his senior year
Joey Dorsey - 1st Team All-Conference USA his junior year
Chris Douglas-Roberts - 1st Team All-American his junior year
Jason Smith - 1st Team All-MWC his sophomore year
Morris Almond - 1st Team All-Conference USA his junior year
Nick Fazekas - MWC POY his sophomore year
Ramon Sessions - WAC Freshman of the year



We could go on, this trend continues all throughout the last decade. These guys all were big time players before their senior seasons. Harper is in uncharted waters. He didnt have much success before this year. I think it is fair to interpret that as he's a fairly average basketball player besides one skill. Against regular college competition, he failed to stand out until his senior year. Sure he improved other areas of his game this year, but it is obvious to see those skills still are lacking.

That one skill, of course, is his shooting. To make it in the NBA, he is going to have to be one of the best shooting big men of recent memory. That brings us to the final questions of our two part study - how good of a shooter is he?

If you look at just this season, he is one of the best shooting big men in awhile. There are plenty of good 6-8 shooters that have past through the college ranks, but what makes Harper better than them is his 6-10 frame and athleticism. He hasn't figured out how to use his athleticism completely yet, but he can at least hang with NBA level athletes. The reason why we aren't talking about Pat Calathes or Steve Novak is because they fail the eye test athletically.

After digging through 3-pt shooting stats of the past ten years for power forwards, I found that Harper's season ranks only behind the aforementioned Steve Novak when it comes to a healthy balance of accuracy and frequency. Novak took 9.9 threes per 40 minutes pace adjusted while making 46.7% of them, while Harper made 45.2% on 6.1 three per 40 minutes pace adjusted.

Guys like Ryan Anderson, Kevin Pittsnogle, Daniel Kickert, Kevin Durant, and John Shurna all had great numbers as well, but Harper and Novak stand above the rest.

Based off this, Harper definitely can make it in a NBA rotation as a shooter. Novak is still getting 10 day contracts even though he brings far less to the table than Harper. The only question left to answer is whether or not his shooting was a fluke. He vastly improved his numbers this year and his free throw percentage never pointed to him being an elite shooter.

There is only way to find out, though, and that is to give him a chance. His stroke is pure and simple, which makes me believe he has what it takes to make it in the league. Its enough to justify taking him in the late first to early second round.

Just remember what you are getting out of Harper - a stretch four that is meant to come off the bench. Some teams use stretch fours more than others, most notable Orlando. He needs to find a team that will utilize him correctly. He lacks the tools to be a complete power forward and should not be taken by a team expecting him to be a traditional four who plays in the post.

His past may be unusual for a draft prospect, but it is pretty clear what he will bring to the table in the NBA.

Faried, Honeycutt, Ezeli, and Jenkins with Most to Gain Today

These guys all have a lot to gain from NCAA tournament exposure one way or another. They all have first round potential, but none are a lock at this point. Some need the games to get the hype train rolling enough to enter their name in the draft, others just need a few games to put a good taste in scouts' mouths.


The Senior

Personally, I think Faried is a top 20 pick, and will definitely prove his worth once he reaches the NBA. Its hard to go wrong with the best rebounder in NCAA history. This guy has a great attitude, work ethic, and motor on the court. The complete package. Hard to see him failing. At worst he is a great rebounder off the bench, while he has the potential to be the best thing since Dennis Rodman. He's a great athlete who gets rebounds all over the court and sees it as his job to do so. Rebounding is how he started off getting scoring opportunities, but he has now worked on his game enough to be able to take slower defenders off the dribble and get to the hoop. He should be able to do that in the NBA too, similar to Paul Millsap. He can also be a terror running the court on the fastbreak. A team like the Knicks would be a great fit for him in the teens.


The Underachiever

Tyler Honeycutt is a player that has a whole lot of talent, but has yet to put it together. Some still think, including me, that he is a first rounder even without consistent production. With a few good games in front of NBA talent evaluators, though, he can go from first rounder to late lottery-mid first round. A few good games is all Tyler needs - scouts can easily convince themselves that the way he performed on the biggest stage is a sign of things to come. Plus, seeing a guy like him in person is eye-catching. A few big games from Honeycutt would make me feel comfortable taking him in the teens hoping he becomes the next Tayshaun Prince.

The Big Man

Festus Ezeli is a guy I have touted the entire season, but scouts havent been as high on him. They certainly have seen him plenty with prospects like Jenkins and Taylor playing alongside him. A NCAA tournament run by Vandebilt could help the ball getting role by getting scouts to look at him as a 2011 draft prospect as opposed to next year. He has prototypical center size and lacks a real weakness. At the same time, he isnt particularly strong in any area, although he can be a great defender once he learns to play without fouling. His post game is a work in progress, but he gets the job done with basic post moves. He has a strong base which helps him defending and establishing position in the paint on offense. Solid shot blocker. He has improved a ton since joining the Vanderbilt basketball team and there is still upside. He isnt a freak athlete like some other raw centers, but he is stronger and smarter than most.

The Great College Player

While Kemba Walker, Jimmer Fredette, and Nolan Smith get all the national attention for their scoring abilities, John Jenkins has gone under the radar in the SEC. He has gone from a spot-up shooter, to a guy who can create his own shot. What I like about him is his mental makeup - he doesnt get down when his shot isnt falling, which is a pivotal trait for a shooter. His scoring mentality has enabled him to take the reigns of Vandy's offense instead of deferring to another first rounder prospect, Jeff Taylor. Jenkins is more of a complete offensive player than he gets credit for and also benefits from his stocky frame. A couple of big nights in the NCAA tournament will get people talking and could translate into him declaring for the draft this year. If not, he will be in prime position to take over as one of the faces of college basketball next year.

The Late Bloomer

Justin Harper will be facing that Vanderbilt team and scouts will definitely be tuned in. Harper has slowly been climbing draft boards as the word is spreading about this solid athlete with a great jumper. In a league where each team is in search of a stretch four, Harper will be the guy that can provide it in this draft class. His NCAA performance isnt as big of a deal as just the actual exposure he will receive. Harper is going to be a coveted player in the draft whether he struggles or not. Finding power forwards that shoot like him is a tough task. His climb could be similar to Jason Thompson's climb a few years ago as more scouts got word of him late in the season.