Examining The Power Forward Class (Sans Anthony Bennett and Cody Zeller)

In today's NBA, the power forward role has grown to be the most diverse position in the NBA. There are still some throwback post up guys, but there are plenty of more athletic combo forwards flying up and down in transition. You also have the energy guys, the big bodied rebounders, the stretch forwards, defensive specialist, and guys that contribute a little from each of the group. Because of the wide variety of power forwards, it can be hard to rank them. Different teams prefer different things based on style of play, need, and if they are ready to win right away.

In my opinion, ranking these players may not be the best way to do things. I feel it will be easier to divide them in groups and break them down that way and allowing the reader to decide which power forward would fit best for their teams needs.

At the top, there are two clear lottery talents that definitely lead the way in Anthony Bennett and Cody Zeller. I've covered both extensively already and feel that the gap between Bennett and Zeller is a lot smaller than what it is perceived by others. Kelly Olynyk is also in this group, although he isn't a lock for the lottery like Bennett and Zeller are. He could go there, but his floor certainly looks like the mid to late first round. Either way, Id like to use this platform to talk about the other power forwards in this draft who don't have much first round buzz.

*Names in italics represent a player having at least a 50/50 shot at getting drafted.*

The Bruisers

Richard Howell 
Trevor Mbakwe 
Jack Cooley
Reginald Buckner

These are the type of guys who use their physical strength to their advantage. They aren't the most skilled players, but they rebound the ball with great efficiency. There has been a history of these guys getting undervalued, but the league is steering away from the more with the evolution of the more perimeter oriented forwards. There are plenty of these guys spread throughout Europe and the D-League. Without much of an upside, it begs the question if they are even worth a second round pick given that you can pick up a more experienced one on the market somewhere. These are guys like Darnell Jackson, Josh Powell, Jeff Adrien, DJ White, Rick Jackson, and Richard Hendrix.

In my personal opinion, Richard Howell is the best of the bruisers this year. His biggest competition is Trevor Mbakwe, but Howell didn't disappear from games and his motor never stopped running. Thats what you look for in a bruiser. Howell is younger, more durable, more skilled, and doesn't have the character concerns Mbakwe has. Mbakwe though, is the bigger physical presence and has shown he can be a terror to stop at times.

The Stretch Fours

Erik Murphy
Ryan Kelly
Kenny Kadji
Grant Jerrett
Brock Motum
Christian Watford

The stretch four has came along as teams have looked to spread the court more. These guys are asked to knock down shots from behind the arc consistently, but help out in other areas enough so they are a liability. Certain teams use them more than others and good defensive systems help hide their weaknesses. They also generally need to play next to a rim protector and/or big time rebounder. Like with the bruisers, there are guys in the D-League and overseas that can perhaps do the job just as good if not better, while possessing more experience. These are guys like Maarty Leunen, Justin Harper, Rob Kurz, and Craig Brackins.

Of the guys on the list, I give Murphy the edge over Ryan Kelly because he's a better rebound and more of a fluid athlete. I also think you can make a very good argument that Murphy is the best shooter of the group as well. Along with those two, Grant Jerrett could be worth a draft pick although he is a couple of years away. Why waste a pick on a regular old stretch forward who can't contribute right away when you can sign a guy like Harper or Brackins for the minimum contract out of the D-League? Its a question to ponder when selecting in the second round.

*I covered Deshaun Thomas and Robert Covington with the small forward group, but both could also spend some time playing stretch forward in the league.

The Raw Athlete

CJ Leslie (Lacks BBIQ, strength, motor/consistency)
Tony Mitchell (Lacks motor, subpar production vs low-majors)
Amath M'Baye (Lacks skillset, position)
Norvel Pelle (Lacks skillset, experience, strength, BBIQ)
Deshawn Painter (Nondescript PF, lacks production for mid-major, strength, post game)

These are guys that possess the NBA level length and athleticism to make scouts drool, but for one reason or another, just aren't as good of players as their athleticism suggests. Whether it is energy, IQ, strength, offensive skills, or position - there is something missing that keeps these guys from being a lottery pick. Lots of teams draft these guys looking for a defensive stopper, but not all of them have that mentality to own that role. The intrigue of these guys comes from the perceived upside. Among the plethora of guys that fit this mold that are currently without a NBA contract are: Shawn James, Willie Reed, Stephane Lasme, and Chris Wright (Dayton).

Of these guys, Tony Mitchell has the best chance to make an impact in the NBA. He played in a bad situation that arguably effected his performance and could turn it on in the right situation in the NBA. He's a better gamble than CJ Leslie who has proved time and time again that he doesn't have the energy or IQ to be effective at the next level. Mitchell has more potential defensively than any other power forward in this draft.

The Skilled Big (Back to the Basket)

Brandon Davies
Jackie Carmichael

This is kind of your throw back power forward, the type that actually showed off a post game in college basketball. These aren't guys who are just bangers inside or undersized forwards, these guys have solid size and a legitimate post game to go to. In today's NBA, their games don't directly translate unless they are dominant with their back to the basket, but their skillset can be valuable on the right team. These guys usually come from college teams that featured them on offense and have a good feel for the game. Guys like Lawrence Roberts, Draymond Green, and Ryan Gomes all were this type of player in college.

For these guys to succeed at the next level, they have to be able to transform to bigger threats facing up. Guys like Gomes and Green have been able to translate their saavyness in the post to other parts of their games. Brandon Davies has already shown the same ability at Portsmouth and Carmichael also has shown the ability to pick and pop.

Undersized Energy Guys

Andre Roberson
Arsalan Kazemi
Ed Daniel
DJ Stephens
Taylor Smith
Elias Harris

There is some overlap with the bruisers in the sense that they earn their money through rebounding, energy, and defense. The difference is these guys are usually shorter and less bulky, while possessing more versatility on the defensive end. They can get up and down the court, move very well laterally on defense, and rebound the ball. These guys also generally lack much offensive skill at all, generating most of their offense off fastbreaks, cuts, and offensive rebounders. These are guys like Quincy Acy, Taylor Griffin, Demarre Carroll, and plenty more.

Andre Roberson and Arsalan Kazemi have the best chance at getting drafted as they have been two of the best rebounders in college basketball this season. They also both have experience playing the small forward spot. While neither have shown the offensive skills to play SF, they both have shown the versatility to make you believe they can cover both forward spots on defense.

Faceup PFs

Mike Muscala
Kelly Olynyk
Romero Osby
Laurence Bowers
Keith Clanton
Mouphtaou Yarou
Dante Taylor
Jared Berggren

This is a group with more diversity than others as you have some guys on the list that are closer to combo forwards while the top guys have legit big man size. Some of these guys are considered faceup fours because they don't have the range to be a stretch forward or any other noticeable attribute to fit any of the other categories. For most of these guys, they are pretty nondescript as players with the thought of playing in the NBA as a long shot. There are countless amounts of these types that have flirted with being drafted.

For guys like Muscala and Olynyk however, they are on this list because along with shooting from the outside, they can also take defenders off the dribble or work in the most. Unlike the other ones who aren't stretch forwards because they lack range, these two aren't stretch forwards because they can offer teams more than simply shooting from beyond the arc. And since the faceup PF is the most common among all the PFs in today's NBA, Muscala and Olynyk both already have their role carved out for them. Their transition to the NBA is a lot easier to see than a lot of guys in other groups, which is why both of them could potentially go in the first round.

Summary:

Overall, none of these guys look like potential stars and few will end up as starters. But there is value in each of the draftable players that a coach can make use of if he understands what they bring to the table. In today's game, a starting power forward is generally a guy that you can put in multiple categories from above. Whether it is a bruising power forward that plays with a relentless amount of energy (Faried, Millsap), a skilled big with a faceup game (David West), a bruising rebounder who can stretch the floor (Kevin Love), an athlete with tenacious energy (Kevin Garnett, Josh Smith), a skilled big with a bruising body (Al Jefferson), or an athletic forward with a faceup game (Thaddeous Young). Lots of these guys could be thrown into even more of the categories and that is what makes them special players.

In this draft (excluding Zeller and Bennett), maybe there are some players that are able to bring multiple things to the table and become starters. Muscala and Olynyk could both develop into even better shooters and become even more deadly with added NBA 3-pt range. Tony Mitchell could be a Josh Smith-type if he adds the necessary energy to his game. Richard Howell already is a bruiser with a relentless motor, but does he do anything else at a NBA level? Jackie Carmichael is certainly a skilled post player and could evolve to a nice do-it-all type of player ala David West? These are the guys that have the potential to break out be at least key rotational guys, if not good starters.

Catching Up With Tony Mitchell

Much has been made of Tony Mitchell's slow start so far this season. Coming off a game where he only got off one shot, many people questioned how that was even possible.

I watched tonight's game, the game after his one shot performance, and he scored 18 points on 7-12 shooting. It was a solid performance for Mitchell as well as his team, who managed to hang in with St. Louis until the buzzer, losing 67-63. Mitchell had 14 first half points then had to sit out much of the second half with foul trouble. Once he was inserted back into the lineup, his teammates didn't even look to get him the ball.

Sort of perplexing. North Texas as a whole is perplexing. Heading into this game, they were shooting 26% from 3-pt range yet fared better against zone defenses.

I had two hypothesis for this - one is simple, the more inferior teams on North Texas ran zone against them in attempt to limit Mitchell. This makes plenty of sense.

The other could have to do with the amount of double teams Mitchell receives. Whenever Mitchell gets the ball in the post, he is automatically doubled - creating open looks for teammates outside the arc. So North Texas may actually get more 3-pt looks against man to man defense.

Fascinating.

More fascinating may be how first year North Texas coach Tony Benford has used Mitchell - or hasn't used him. It is tough being a coach of a lottery big man on a team of below average, shot happy guards. There is a lot of pressure to feature Mitchell, but it is something that also would help the team win.

Another thing Benford has to deal with is his center - Tony Mitchell - preferring to showcase his small forward skills to NBA scouts. Or his lack of them. You know what they say about guys trying to prove they can do something: they usually prove instead that they can't do it.

Mitchell may have another reason however of floating outside. The double teams. Mitchell can't show his post game because he is swarmed after each touch. When Mitchell parks himself in the post, you can tell it is hard for him to stay in the game mentally. Not only because of the double teams, but because of his teammates' idolization of their own offensive games.

And so is it best to park Mitchell down there? Sure he creates open looks, but he doesn't get to shoot himself. And as mentioned before, North Texas can't hit threes.

So that is what brings Mitchell out around the perimeter. Its a big conundrum and it wouldn't be a problem on a more talented team.

Mitchell faces tough defense off the ball all game and doesn't know how to get open off the ball. He gets some 3-pt shots by trailing in transition and popping on pick and rolls. He gets some putback attempts and throws down some alley-oops. And then there are the times he tries to create offense for himself - a very mixed bag.

His offensive game is somewhat like Andre Roberson's. Both are athletic freaks trying to prove themselves on the perimeter, yet have terrible footwork and decision making skills on the perimeter. They both shuffle their feet, rethink every step, and rely on their first step completely. And both of them can actually hit the 3-pt shot, although it can be ugly. The 3-pt shot gives them better driving opportunities due to strong defensive close outs.

Besides Roberson being 4 months older, Mitchell also is the better prospect because of his strength and his mid-range game potential. Mitchell's frame is much better than Roberson's and allows him to finish in contact and also work more inside. Mitchell's mid-range game actually looks good, as he is creative with his dribble and his jumpshot looks much better from 18 feet in. Mitchell has much more of an offensive mindset than Roberson and thus has more potential in the area. He can be dangerous setting up from the mid-range area with both the jumper and the drive. Mitchell can also post up, but his footwork and balance in these situations make for some ugly looking shots at time.

Mitchell's play pick up once conference play starts and his guards get to face competition more of their level. Same deal I said for Robert Covington who has struggled early. Mitchell's stock has taken a slight dip since the season has began, but he is one of the best athletes in this very weak draft. Believe it or not, he still could even have an outside shot at the #1 pick. His potential is that high.

Roberson Struggles on the Perimeter

Just went back and watched today's Dayton vs Colorado game to get a look at Andre Roberson. I am a big fan of what Roberson can bring to a team at the next level, but his experimenting at small forward isn't showing off his game very well. He played almost exclusively on the wing in today's game and only finished with 6 points on 2-7 shooting. He also turned it over 6 times.

Roberson can try to make things to hard on himself on the perimeter and shy away from his strengths. If he wants to prove himself as a perimeter player thats fine (although I previously have written that I think he can play PF successfully in the NBA), but he needs to simplify what he is doing. Roberson mainly likes to attack when he has the ball with a defender closing in and almost always gives a pump fake before taking off on the dribble. He will get too fancy sometimes, trying to throw in one too many moves - say a hesitation move as he did today- and turn the ball over. This is really unnecessary as Roberson possesses a great first step and can get by just about anybody trying to close out on him.

Roberson isn't a great dribbler but can drive in a straight line with either hand and also has nice body control. He glides to the hoop in an effortless way and is a great finisher around the rim, able to handle contact with his wiry, strong frame. The problem is Roberson doesn't just stick to a basic drive. He hits the lane at 100 mph and can't control himself. He needs to gather himself by utilizing a jump stop move and allow himself either to make a pass from the position or finish at the rim.

Sometimes, Roberson can hit the lane at full speed and make a great pass. When he does, it looks great. Roberson is a pretty good passer on the move and regularly looks for his teammates. The jumpstop could show off this strength even more. Jay Williams said he needs to learn how to gather himself, take his time, and just make a solid move to the hoop and he is absolutely right. Roberson is thinking way too much before each move trying to string together the perfect compliment of moves to get the hoop. He doesn't need to do that.

It still is crazy too me though that a athlete of Roberson's caliber doesn't post up very often. He is dead set it seems on playing the small forward position. He would easily be a much better college player if he did this and Tad Boyle is too good of a college coach not to recognize this.

On top of his lack of feel for the perimeter, his shot also still remains very flat and somewhat of a push shot. He was 2-7 at the line today.

The bottom line is Roberson's biggest strengths are finishing at the rim, protecting the rim, and rebounding the ball. The best position to utilize these skills are at the power forward position. He has enough length and athleticism to play the position and should spent more time in the weight room instead of dangling around outside the arc. He doesn't need to prove to scouts he can handle the basketball better in order to get drafted. He needs to show that he can play one position and dominate at it. That position should be power forward.

Scouting Report: Andre Roberson

Height: 6'7''
Weight: 210lbs
Wingspan: 6'11'' (?)
Bday: 12/4/1991

Team: Colorado
Class of 2014

Andre Roberson arrived on campus as an unheralded prospect, a skinny 6'6'' power forward who had shown enough promise to eventually become a college small forward. Playing with Cory Higgins and Alec Burks his freshman year, Roberson didn't have a chance to shoot much but found a way to make a impact on the game with his defense and rebounding. His ability to make his impact felt without the ball put him on the radar and had scouts pegging him for a breakout sophomore campaign with Higgins and Burks headed to the NBA. Roberson's sophomore year showed even more promise although he didn't takeover offensively, and now heading into his junior year, Roberson is expected to make yet another leap. Something he is good at.

Roberson is a tremendous athlete on the court. Since he came into Boulder, his body has improved, and he is now being listed at 6'7'' with a long wingspan to help compensate his shortcomings. He has also put on a good amount of weight to the point where that shouldn't be a huge factor anymore. When watching Roberson, his determination and tenacity combined with the wiry strength he does possess, has been enough to keep him from getting pushed around. Roberson is so active that I am not even sure he stays in one spot long enough for someone to get a body on him.

His activeness around the basket is a lethal combination with his fluid athleticism. He has aggregated those tools to become one of the top rebounders in the country and reminded some scouts of Kawhi Leonard because of it.

In my opinion, Roberson's athleticism is more reminiscent of Hakim Warrick. Leonard was built strong while Warrick and Roberson are more bouncy and fluid. At this point in time, Leonard was a better prospect because of his ball skills. Leonard was a lot easier to project into a small forward role at the next level while Roberson is still very much a tweener on offense.

Roberson's current offense game mainly revolves around put backs, transition opportunities, and straight drives to the hoop. He has shown minimal signs of a post game and his progression as a player makes it appear that he is working towards becoming a small forward in the NBA. He has shown the ability to knock down open jumpers with his feet set, shooting 38% from the 3-pt line, but his shot is very mechanical and rarely forced. His statistics tell a better story of his shot than it actually is. His free throw percentage explains his struggle shooting. Still, he is able to spread the floor.

Roberson wasn't the focal point of the offense even with Burks and Higgins gone and spent equal amount of time on the perimeter as he did setting picks and occupying the paint. Roberson was unable to create his own shots, looking very unnatural shooting of the dribble, but did show good explosion to the basket driving all the way out to the three point line. He is a straight line driver (and very right hand dominant) but has enough body control to put himself in position for a high percentage shot once he gets to the rim. He absorbs contact well and is an all around terrific finisher. He combines the toughness of a big man with the craftiness of a wing once he is at the rim.

Roberson also runs the court very well, looking for every chance possible to get easy buckets. He plays well off the ball and creates a lot of easy dunks at the rim because of it. Every time a shot goes up, Roberson crashes the boards in case of a miss. He has shown a nice touch on tip backs or tipping the ball out to teammates.

While his offense can be a nice complimentary piece since he doesn't need the ball, his defense can be game changing. Roberson is best with freedom, where he can roam off the ball a provide help at the rim. His shotblocking ability is terrific and may be underrated due to the fact that he spends some time covering perimeter players. He is able to block shots with both hands and really makes an art of it. He blocks shots playing straight man defense, helping off the ball, directly at the rim, coming from behind, and is able to block jumpers at the apex of the shot. Because of his shot blocking ability and elite rebounding, I do like Roberson at the power forward.

Roberson has looked fine guarding on the perimeter, but his length is more effective than his lateral quickness. He can be a good wing defender, but I don't think you get the most value out of him by confining him to that one task. He would be best used on defense in a Josh Smith type role.

Roberson has a good amount of potential and the trajectory of his improvements to date should be enough to believe he will continue to get even better, but even without the potential, Roberson brings a lot to the table. He is an elite rebounder, a impact defender, and an above average finisher at the rim. I have some reservations about Roberson becoming a full time small forward, but there is no reason he has to be. He has unique abilities and the best way to utilize him will be in a specialize role. His energy will be perfect off the bench at the beginning of the career and if he grows into more, it is a bonus. If not, you have a borderline starter who plays a brand of basketball you can win with. Roberson has a long way to go offensively as a small forward and will never be a great ball handler, but don't let that distract you from what he can bring to the table. He is easily a first round pick at this point, even without improvement, and Id expect him to be drafted somewhere in the teens on draft night.