Defense is the Best Recipe for NBA Rookies

As a rookie, defense is the key to getting on the court. This holds even more true for second rounders as their offensive talent usually isn't good enough to offset anything lacking on the other end of the court. If you are looking for second rounders to in their rookie season, the best option year in and year out has been to go with the best defenders and rebounders. Kawhi Leonard and Kenneth Faried were two of the bigger surprises of last year's rookie crop and earned their minutes with their toughness, motor, and ability to do the little things. Both players played key minutes on playoff teams even though they were selected outside of the lottery.

The 2012 Draft featured some excellent defensive players at the top of the draft - Anthony Davis, Andre Drummond, and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist - and all 3 of them are logging big minutes already for their current clubs. Davis and Drummond find themselves in the thick of the rookie of the year race, right behind Portland' Damian Lillard.

Its important to note some of the lesser touted rookies getting minutes this year - Kyle Singler, Jae Crowder, Jeff Taylor, and Festus Ezeli join Drummond, Davis, and MGK in the top 20 in minutes played amongst rookies. Festus Ezeli was the highest draft pick of the group, going to the Warriors with the last pick of the first round. All of these guys entered the NBA with experience, a defensive background, a reputation for improving, and a high motor.

Bernard James has earned his way into the Mavericks rotation and is averaging 16 minutes per game this month. John Henson has shown glimpses for the Bucks this year in a deep frontcourt and was a big key in their rotation in January. Dion Waiters sports the second high Drtg among rookies and receives starter minutes in the process.

The only guy with a better Drtg than Waiters among rookies is DeQuan Jones - a complete afterthought in the draft and proof that defense is the best way to earn a spot in the league. Even Tyler Zeller, Waiter's teammate, has earned minutes because of his defense.

Only 4 top 20 picks have averaged less than 12 minutes per game this season - Kendall Marshall, Terrence Jones, Evan Fournier, Jeremy Lamb, and Royce White. All had questions about their defense and/or energy coming into the draft. Marshall only has average athleticism and struggles to stay in front of his man. Terrence Jones is a tweener who struggled to grasp the concept of team defense at Kentucky. Fournier is offensive minded. Jeremy Lamb faced questions of complacency and whether he was intense enough. Royce White's defense has always been the biggest question mark with his game.

So what guys in this year's draft can you expect to see playing regular minutes from the start? And what top guys may need more time?

Among lottery picks, there are quite a few that are still learning how to defense - most notably some of the big men. The importance of defense for a big is even greater than a perimeter player so thats why guys like Alex Len, Anthony Bennett, Isaiah Austin, Willie Cauley-Stein and Kelly Olynyk may struggle to get regular playing time right off the bat.

Some of the freshman perimeter players will also struggle as they will be asked for the first time in their careers to defend without any mental lapses. The NBA constantly runs defenders through screens and asks that you defend tough and with energy. You have to be willing and able to chase your man. For guys like Alex Poythress, Archie Goodwin, Shabazz Muhammad, and Glenn Robinson III this could prevent these potential top 20 selections from getting as many minutes as their talent suggests they should. They have the physical tools - but heart, toughness, and motor are the keys to defending in the NBA.

Not all freshman are created equal though - Marcus Smart is one freshman who can come in and defend right away. Smart can be a leader on defense vocally. He already treats defense with importance and has a strong NBA ready frame as well. Smart's versatility will also be helpful - a key in a league that revolves around creating mismatches. Smart can guard both guard positions and his strength will even allow him to at least put up a fight against some forwards. Above anything, Smart has that heart, toughness, and motor that others lack. His only weakness may be him trying to be too perfect which results in him getting shook out of his shoes an odd amount of times for such a strong defender. Smart's lateral quickness isn't great either, but he has tremendous anticipation skills.

Two other top 10 wings will be able to jump in and play 20+ minutes right way for whatever team that drafts them. Otto Porter is one. He has the versatility that is ever so important and also the smarts. Helpside defense is huge in the NBA where one guy is never enough to contain the opponent's top players. Having a cohesive 5 man group on defense that understands where they need to be at all times on the court is huge and Porter won't miss a beat in that regard. He isn't especially quick laterally, but his anticipation skills and length make him more of a valuable team defender than lockdown guy.

Speaking of lockdown guys, the other wing that will warrant major minutes from the get-go is Victor Oladipo. Oladipo has the biggest motor in this draft and outstanding physical tools to go with it. He's a guy that can shutdown an opponent's best player and would relish the opportunity to do so. Oladipo is an extremely hard worker and nobody would ever question his heart or toughness. His understanding of the game has come a long way since his high school days at Dematha - as he would admit himself.

In terms of big men, Nerlens Noel is obviously going to be the biggest difference maker. But a guy like Cody Zeller will prove invaluable to teams. Zeller won't make many plays seemingly - but he will stop many positive plays from happening for the other team. He has a great understanding of team defense and moves his feet really well. Zeller is listed as a center, but he may be best off playing the power forward position role in the NBA where his ability to defend away from the basket will be best utilized. When people think of him as a center, they automatically assume he's a bad defender because of his T-rex arms and lack of explosive leaping ability. If you ask him to play the role of power forward though, his strengths will be maximized as opposed to his weaknesses.

Besides the big men already mentioned, Mason Plumlee is generally thought of as the next best one. I would disagree, but he shouldn't have a hard time finding minutes as a fourth big in his rookie season. Hailing from Duke, he already has been well-coached of the nuances of defending. I don't think he has a great defensive upside though as I see him as a bit of a tweener. Plumlee doesn't have the lateral quickness to defend PFs while at the same time, isn't an imposing shot blocking threat that centers are expected to be nowadays. He would have better lateral quickness than an average center or better shotblocking skills than your average power forward, but as he is in between those positions, it is kind of a moot point.

I actually like both Gorgui Dieng and Jeff Withey more in terms of defensive potential. Withey is obviously intriguing because of how well he blocks shots and even more miraculously - doesnt foul. The transition as a NBA defender won't be as seamless as some would assume though for the Kansas big. Withey relies too much on his shot blocking abilities in college and hasn't shown enough strength in the post or hedging ability on screens. NBA defensive specialists all usually exhibit a certain kind of toughness and edge to them that Jeff Withey just hasn't shown up to this point. Withey has more of the laidback west coast personality to him and that should be of concern to scouts.

Dieng though, has anchored Louisville's top defense under the tutelage of Rick Pitino. He has great length and mobility and has been a vocal leader on that end of the court. Dieng, in my opinion, will be more ready than both Plumlee and Withey in terms of defense his rookie year.

Now for guys that may not be household names yet, but could be key rotational players for your favorite NBA team at this time next year. These guys won't be top 20 picks, but they could very well be playing more of a role than your team's first selection in the draft.

Jamaal Franklin - When you talk about toughness and heart, Jamaal Franklin definitely fits the description. And he also has that certain edge to him where he welcomes the challenge of shutting down an opponent. Franklin earned his stripes last year defending power forwards inside and learned to be the best rebounding guard in the nation. He does a good job fighting through screens and actively thinking of the best way to navigate through traffic in the paint. Franklin's natural instincts are also top notch and his footwork on defense looks like that of a cornerback. Franklin plays very much like a football player and actually wanted to go to Florida to play college football.

Michael Snaer - Snaer is the next plus defender coming out of Florida State, already well-schooled on the nuances of defense. Following in the footsteps of Chris Singleton, Bernard James, Toney Douglas, and Al Thornton these guys all were playing sooner than later. In fact, Douglas, Singleton, and Thornton all received over 19 minutes a game their rookie years before seeing their playing time taper off in subsequent years. If that doesn't tell you about the importance of defense for rookies as well as the job Hamilton does coaching them up, then nothing will. Anyway, Snaer has good physical tools and plays smart. He can defend both guard positions, rebounds well, and is a leader.

Richard Howell - Nothing says toughness like Richard Howell. On a team filled with talented players, Howell  may be one of the least talented but also the most productive. He is a force on the glass and a bull defending the post. There are tough power forwards taken in the second round year after year that end up being steals and Richard Howell fits that mold this season.

Patric Young - Young has been touted as a lottery to mid-first round pick in each of his first two years at Florida in large part due to his physique. Young still has that same strong build in his junior year, but his offensive game has yet to show progress. That has caused his stock to drop into the second round territory where he could now be a steal. If nothing else, Young can give a team 10-15 minutes of strong defense. He has strong hands, moves his feet well, and picks up a fair amount of steals for a center. He will be able to guard a variety of big men and can make an impact within his first year.

Reggie Bullock - The ultimate role player, Bullock thrived his sophomore season at UNC as a gritty glue guy. He hustled to gain UNC extra possessions, crashed the glass, and often guarded the opposing team's best player. Bullock played with fire and did a good job keeping players in front of him and contesting shots with his length. Bullock may not be a lockdown guy at the next level, but he should be what we'd call a "plus"
defender where he will offer more than an average NBA defender.

Trevor Mbakwe - Mbakwe is very old for his class, much like Bernard James last year, and because of that will be expected to earn his draft selection right away. Not to worry, Mbakwe won't need any time in the summer to get his body beefened up for the NBA. Mbakwe already has a very strong base and rebounds well. He is gaining his explosiveness back from ACL surgery in 2012 and is starting to look like his former self. Mbakwe offers more to the table with his rebounding than his defense, but his toughness will be welcomed in both areas.

Rodney Williams - Rodney Williams may be too far behind offensively to contribute right away in the NBA, but there is no doubt he has all the defensive tools to eventually carve out a role. Williams is an outstanding athlete with the ability to leap out of the gym and has shown off his leaping ability more often this year. His motor has ran low at times in the past, but ever since he was moved to the power forward slot late last season, he has made a bigger impact. Williams still has room to learn in terms of defensive rotations and his motor still runs cold at times. In a weak small forward class though, he offers some hope for a team in need of an athletic forward.

Cory Jefferson - Jefferson is another power type who has constantly played for energy even while playing for a underperforming Baylor team. He came onto the scene this year after playing behind the likes of Perry Jones, Quincy Acy, and Quincy Miller last year and showed that he wasn't just sitting in idle during his time on the bench. He has a great motor and is a great run and jump athlete as well. Jefferson is comfortable guarding away from the basket and showcases his physical tools on every possession. He is a strong shotblocker at the rim and has done a nice job in the weight room to improve his body.

New Years Eve Preview

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh 12pm ESPN2

Finally, a chance for Pittsburgh to prove they are a better team than they are getting credit for. Pittsburgh has flown under the radar all season, but looks like a top 15 team to me. The are actually favored in this game against the Bearcats, who are coming off a close loss at home to New Mexico. The Bearcats will have trouble with Pittsburgh physical and deep interior - led by the much improved Talib Zanna. Joining Zanna down low are JJ Moore (their second best inside player), Steven Adams (Cincinnati may play too fast for him to play a lot of minutes), and Dante Taylor (despised by Pitt fans, but isn't too shabby as a backup big). Its a deep frontline even with Khem Birch transferring last year and Malcolm Gilbert leaving this week.

Zanna is one of the most underrated players in the country and his play so far should've been enough for analysis to consider him for one of the 3 All-American teams. But without a lot of big games yet, nobody is biting on Zanna's breakout year yet. He's had hot starts before, but this year is different. His game has evolved greatly on the offensive end.

Pittsburgh is back to its ways of tough defense and rebounding. The addition of James Robinson can't be understated either. He is replacing Ashton Gibbs who was a great scorer, but a terrible defender in his senior year. Robinson is a Dematha product and a winner at heart. He has excellent poise and suffocating defense. His impact has not only been felt at Pitt, but at Dematha as well - as Dematha is off to a 4-3 start to their season. That is more loses than Robinson had his entire career.

Michigan State at Minnesota 2pm ESPN2

Ahhh, Big Ten play. This is the best part of New Year's Eve. Its the sign of matchups like this happening almost every day. Two tough defensive teams going at it. The most intriguing battle here is Brandon Dawson against Rodney Williams, both of whom will get a lot of run at the 4 position. Neither are particularly skilled, but both stick to their strengths. For Dawson, it is being a terror on the offensive glass. For Williams, it is all about his defense and delivering timely highlight dunks. How will Dawson fare against a better athlete than him? And how will Williams match Dawson's energy and strength? The senior SHOULD have the advantage, but we will see. Also, the Andre Hollins watch is on. He is in Big Ten play now - can he keep up his impressive play?

St. Joseph's at Drexel 4pm

Classic Philly battle. Not full of any big prospects, but should be a close and intense matchup to entertain you between 4pm-6pm.

Gonzaga at Oklahoma State 6pm ESPN2

Gonzaga has had well documented problems this year keeping explosive guards in front of them. Marcus Smart is a explosive guard who knows how to score. He has cooled off a bit after a lightning hot start to the season and this is a chance for him to keep his name on the forefront of scouts minds. Another big matchup here is how LeBryan Nash handles Elias Harris' defense. Actually, this is a REALLY interesting battle. Nash isn't going to be able to bully Harris or blow by him easily. How will Nash adjust? Nash won't be expected to score all over him, but will he at least recognize this and play smart? Last year he struggled with forcing things. This year he has been better, but that is because he hasn't faced anyone like Harris. Harris, by the way, has played himself back into NBA Draft conversations. Oklahoma State is the favorite in this game - but I'll take the underdogs in a close one.

Nevada at Oregon 7pm Pac-12 Network

The Washington Huskies are the reason Deonte Burton and Nate Wolters both originally got put on the map. Last year Burton dropped 31 points on them and followed it up with a 29 point performance this season. Beating up on the likes of Tony Wroten and Abdul Gaddy on the defensive end isn't as impressive as the name makes it seem. Regardless, Burton is an intriguing player despite being prematurely thrust into draft conversations.  I think he has made strides since last season.

Oregon also has some prospects I want to get added looks at - Damyean Dotson, Tony Woods, Arsalan Kazemi, and Dominic Artis. Dotson has the greatest potential of the bunch.

North Texas at Middle Tennessee State 8pm ESPNU

I've written about Tony Mitchell quite a few times, including the other day. 

Preview of Tonight's Action

Tonight marks the start of the ACC/Big Ten Challenge and with all the conference re-alignment, maybe one of the last as its going to start getting hard to keep track of which teams are actually in these conferences.

Games to Watch:

Indiana vs North Carolina 9:30 ESPN

Why not get this one out of the way first? James Michael McAdoo vs Cody Zeller. Two guys that could use a big game to get momentum moving in their direction again. At this point, McAdoo is facing questions about his post skills while Zeller has detractors saying he can't create separation. Both do have nice feel and footwork in the post and that should be on display tonight.

Zeller will have to deal with an athletic North Carolina frontline and also Joel James' monster frame. Don't expect Zeller and McAdoo to be matched up a lot.

McAdoo will likely be on Christian Watford most of the time, a guy he should be able to back down a little. McAdoo was quoted in SI today saying he has been focused more on footwork instead of trying to back down anyone, but tonight would be a good night to try to show some toughness against Watford.

Watford will drag him out to the perimeter and force McAdoo to show his perimeter defense skills. Some actually think McAdoo can play some small forward at the next level, but I highly doubt it.

I'm also interested in seeing Reggie Bullock against Victor Oladipo, two energy small forwards I am really high on. Both play great defense and run the court, but their offensive games couldn't be more different. It will be interesting to see how they compete against each other as they should cover one another.

Finally, it may be Jordan Hulls and PJ Hairston that steal the headlines from the big names. Hairston has came on strong as of late and always looks to shoot when he's in. Hulls is extremely tough and a great leader - one of the best in the country. He's slowly developing a reputation as Indiana's go to guy in big games and could steal the headlines.

North Carolina State vs Michigan 7:30 ESPN

Leading the night off for ESPN will be a matchup that may actually feature more future pros than its nightcap. We have Trey Burke vs Lorenzo Brown, both of whom could be drafted in the first round. Lorenzo Brown has already been abused by the younger Marcus Smart this season and can't afford to get worked again. It may be in the cards though, as Burke has been carving up defenses since he's stepped on campus. With the emergence of other scorers, Im interested to see if Burke starts to vanilla down his game more and turn into more of a facilitator. He can dominate the ball at times.

On the wings, Hardaway Jr is coming off one of the best stretches of his career and Glenn Robinson III looks like a real stud. Hardaway will see a lot of freshman Rodney Purvis, who has been one of the bright spots for NC State early on. He has played with great energy and should present a solid test for Hardaway.

Glenn Robinson III may get a chance to step up into a bigger role tonight if he draws Scott Wood on offense. Robinson has taken a back seat to Michigan's backcourt, but has been very efficient in his chances. A chance to see Robinson III take advantage of Wood in an increased workload would be nice.

Robinson may also see some TJ Warren who has joined Purvis as the lone bright spots for NC State. Warren just has a knack for scoring and getting easy baskets around the hoop. He also has great touch on his jumper. He's one to watch out for down the road.

Inside, Michigan has a very smart frontcourt that could use CJ Leslie's aggressiveness against him. Jordan Morgan and Mitch McGary move their feet well and understand defensive positioning. Leslie could be in for a long night. Richard Howell is usually solid.

One thing to watch for is Michigan's pick and roll defense. They are very aggressive in their hedging and take the ball out of the ball handlers hand, but leave themselves vulnerable to other open players. NC State has shot 3s at a better than 40% clip this season thanks to Scott Wood and Rodney Purvis. If Lorenzo Brown runs the point like he should (which he hasn't) and finds the open man off of picks, NC State has a chance at the upset.

This is a big game for Brown who has found his stock dropping quickly so far. He's talented but has shown terrible decision making and a lack of leadership. From an upperclassman, that is unacceptable.

Minnesota vs Florida State 7:15 ESPN2

Minnesota vaulted themselves into the top 25 after a solid showing in the Battle 4 Atlantis. Florida State has started to play better after opening the season with an ugly loss to South Alabama. Both teams can get after it on defense and it starts with Michael Snaer and Rodney Williams, two of the better players in the country.

And while they can really get after it on defense, its the offensive end where they will need to show what they can do tonight. Snaer has been great at getting to the line all year and I'd like to see him do it against a strong perimeter defense and the always lurking Williams. For Rodney, Id just like to see him continue to hit jumpers and attack aggressively from the perimeter. We know his skills aren't great, but he's done a nice job putting his athleticism to use this year.

There are some other marginal prospects in this game - Ian Miller, Andre Hollins, Austin Hollins, and Okaro White - and they all should have some chances to go up against each other. Andre Hollins just dropped 41 points on Memphis and he should be over the hangover of elated-ness that caused him to only score 8 against Stanford.

Also, Trevor Mbakwe will be continued to be monitored to see how his athleticism is coming along. He's coming off the best game of his young season.

Also check out Maryland's Alex Len take on Northwestern and Pittsburgh and Steven Adams against Howard. Maryland has been playing well and should get the win, but Alex Len hasn't had another game that has rivaled his opening performance against Kentucky.

Adams received criticism for his recent play, but its all part of a process. Adams wasn't any worse than he was when I wrote about him at the start of the year, he just went up against some tougher competition. He actually has been showing noticeable improvements each game.

His 13 points in 24 minutes last game against Delaware are misleading as most of his points came in the final minutes, but the confidence that it gives him could be big. Adams was able to hit a jumper and finish in transition and off of a pick and roll. He showed the flashes that make his potential so mouth watering. Facing Howard tonight is good timing, as Dixon can use this game to focus on building off that confidence Adams gained from last game. I expect tonight to be the best chance to see what Adam's is capable of doing so far. He is going to continue to get better each game. His stock is fine.  

Thoughts on Duke vs Minnesota

- Duke came away with a really impressive win against Minnesota, beating them 89-71. Their starting five is scary good and they mesh well together. Each of them know their roles and there is plenty of experience between them.

Plumlee has taken over as one of the senior leaders. He has played with a great motor so far this season and is finally looking the way a Duke senior should. He killed Minnesota and Elliott Elliason in the first half, registering a double-double. In the process, he got Elliason sent to the bench - where he should have been anyway.

- Each of their starters scored in double figures and they showed great balance, but Seth Curry was the guy they went to when they needed a bucket. He was a magician out there today, showing a better array of moves than in the past to get off his jumper. He finished with 25 points and couldn't miss from the field.

- Sulaimon was their lowest scoring member of the starting 5 with 11 points. He was also their best at getting to the hoop and also arguably their best passer. He gives Duke the perimeter defender they need. I'm a big fan.

- Minnesota has a nice starting lineup as well, but Tubby needs to whittle down his rotation. For one, I dont think they have the inside depth to ever play Rodney Williams at SF. He played a few minutes there today and I didnt get it. Hes a better player at the PF and Minnesota has more depth on their wings.

Elliason looked terrible, but I liked the minutes Maurice Walker gave them. His conditioning leaves a lot to be desired, but if I were Tubby I'd try to stick close to a Williams/Mbakwe/Walker rotation inside.

- For their guards, he needs to trim the fat in the same way. Or maybe it was just a case where one guy had a bad game and the other had a good game. Either way, Julian Welsh looked awful while Maverick Ahanmisi did a nice job scoring off the bench. Based on their career numbers, it could just be a case of one game. We'll see.

Anyway, there is no doubting that the Hollins duo should be getting the majority of the minutes. I've finally decided that Austin is looks like the better pro. Neither had a great game but the talent is there. Tough matchup against Duke's guards.

- Rodney Williams may be the quickest and most explosive leaper in the country with all due respect to Doug Anderson of Detroit. He had at least 3 emphatic dunks at the rim and chased down two guys in transition for block shots (one ended up being a goaltending call, but still impressive). His motor was certainly running today. He also hit a spot up 3-pt attempt and easily beat a Duke defender to the rim on drives from the perimeter.

He still doesnt have a good feel on offense and probably never will, but if he hits the jumper with consistency, that may be enough for him to have a solid NBA career. His defense is obviously his calling card.

- Mbakwe is still coming off the bench and only played 18 minutes. Not sure he is in good enough shape yet to play a full game. I am sure that he has yet to get back some of that explosiveness that he had prior to his injuries. Also, Plumlee appeared to tower over him.

Slow Start for Covington, but No Need to Panic

One of the most under the radar matchups yesterday was Robert Covington against Rodney Williams. Covington has been a favorite of mine and I was disappointed to check the box score this morning and see that he only scored 10 points on 4-11 shooting before fouling out in 22 minutes. Was one of my sleeper prospects exposed as a guy just beating up on weak competition thanks to mismatches?

I got through the first half of the game and felt much better about the outcome. Rodney Williams matched up on Covington the entire half and played great defense, but an even bigger factor was Tennessee State's guard play. They struggled to get the ball into the halfcourt against the Golden Gopher's press and through up ill-advised shots at any chance they got. They seemingly never got Tennessee State set in their offense.

Covington showed little frustration throughout the process of being blown out though, showing solid leadership skills. He came up with a nice steal in the first half and fed a teammate for a lay-up on the break, only to have him go up weak and end up being blocked. Covington was able to score a few times - stepping out for a 3 on a pick and pop, and showing off a nice drop step spin move from about 10 feet from the rim. He actually finished the first half with 7 points on 3-5 shooting before going 1-6 in the second half once the game was already decided.

In a game like this, Covington was unable to take pressure off the guards and bring the ball up himself because he isn't that kind of player. His ball handling skills are good enough for him to drive in a straight line or set up a mid-range jumpshot, but he gets in trouble when he tries to create plays in isolation situations. He didn't have any room for error against Rodney Williams, who played tight defense on him all half.

Tennessee State is 0-3 on the year and the guards look to be at fault. Covington's stat line will suffer because of this, but once the guards find equal competition in conference play, Covington should start to pick up play. This isn't because he can't play against top level competition, moreso that the rest of his team isn't up for that challenge.

As for Minnesota, they look like a top 25 team. Their defense should be one of the top in the country. Rodney Williams, Andre and Austin Hollins, and Trevor Mbawke make up a great core of players who all defend. Williams has been great since moving to power forward and could be a poster child for the NCAA on reasons to stay in school for all 4 years. He has learned so much in that time, going from a low IQ player, to a fluid player who knows where to be on defense and how to move without the ball.

Austin Hollins has always impressed me and its about time I zero in on him as a legit prospect. Andre isn't a bad point guard either. Mbakwe only played 10 minutes off the bench and picked up 4 fouls, but expect him to return close to form this year.