Saturday's Weekend Wrap-Up

Cincinnati vs St. John's

Sean Kilpatrick got off to a hot start this year along with the rest of the Bearcat team. However, as we head into a tougher part of the schedule, both him and the team are looking much more average. The Bearcats have been a team that takes advantage of their athleticism and defense by pressuring teams into tough shots. Now, they have been the team getting bullied on the inside.

Kilpatrick only scored 7 points against St. John's - probably the most athletic team he's faced to date. In his last three games (against New Mexico, St. John's, and Pittsburgh), his best shooting performance was his 3-8 game against Pittsburgh. I've watched each of those games and it seems his stock is deteriorating before our eyes. His 3-pt shooting is now down to 33% and that is supposed to be his calling card at the next level. His driving game isn't working either - he has to try to muscle the way to the hoop and has struggled finishing vs size. The write-up I wrote on Kilpatrick in November is looking on point. I thought I might have been a bit too tough on him after his strong December.

Rutgers vs Pittsburgh

Rutgers' pulled off the upset early on Saturday morning which was the start of 3 ranked Big East teams losing. I've been vocal about how much I like this Panther team, but getting outrebounded 31-21 just isn't their style. Talib Zanna only had 1 rebound and now there is a bit of reservation if he has actually made the jump to one of the better big men in the Big East. He has been fools gold before. He thrives in transition opportunities which won't be as rampant in conference play, but his rebounding is a bit of a mystery. I still really like his awareness on defense. He does a great job covering for Steven Adams' mistakes.

Speaking of Adams, he only had 4 rebounds in 28 minutes. This was a better game for him then the box score indicates though. He continues to make visible progress each game which makes his potential almost something tangible. He has been running the court and moving on offense with purpose. It is amazing just how fluid he is at his height. He does a great job moving from point A to point B on offense and finally looks like he knows where he is going. He's been able to catch the ball on the run and finish all in one smooth motion. He completely shut out every pick and roll attempt Rutgers tried. He is a little slow getting back to his man, which is where Zanna's ability to move comes in handy.

The one area where Adams really needs to improve in the immediate feature is his rebounding. Not his ability to rebound the ball, but his ability to hang onto it after he gets it. He is weak coming down with the ball and gets it taken away from him too many times. Adams needs to develop a mean streak. If he shows this, I'd consider drafting him in the top 5-8.

Lamar Patterson is a talented jack-of-all trade performer who I've liked dating back to high school. but it is time for him to expand himself as a player. He is a capable driver and creator and Pittsburgh desperately needs another aggressor on the perimeter. He needs to step up.

Baylor vs Texas

This game was a bit of a surprise with Texas forcing overtime as Scott Drew serving a suspension, but the Bears ended up winning 86-79.

Cory Jefferson came up huge with 25 points and 10 rebounds. His combination of size, athleticism, and energy is the perfect recipe for an early second round draft pick. He is only listed at 210lbs, but looks much bigger and certainly plays stronger than that. He got most of his points around the rim by using a combination of his aforementioned athleticism and relentlessness. He's a team player and also a very good defender. He's gone against 3 strong frontcourts in his last three games - all games that I watched - against Gonzaga, Texas, and BYU. In those 3 games, he has grabbed a total of 33 rebounds.

Those three games have also been an opportunity to see how Isaiah Austin fairs against strong frontlines and he's done as well as one could ask - tallying 52 points and 30 rebounds over that stretch. Austin gets a lot of flack for his softness, but to his credit, he doesn't shy away from contact. It just isn't his game, therefore, it isn't smart for him to try to battle down low. And it probably never will be given his physical profile. You have to accept Austin for what he is - a skilled power forward with elite coordination and nice ball skills. I think everyone agrees on the basic scouting report for Austin, but what that amounts to in the NBA is up for debate. Stretch forwards can be a dime a dozen, but just how high is Austin's potential? There haven't been many 7+ footers with his ball skills since Dirk, so there is some intrigued. Then again, finding a guy anywhere near Dirk is like hitting the lottery. NBA teams tried time and time again to hit the lottery in the 2000s with European 7 footers, each time failing.

Pierre Jackson had a somewhat erratic game, making some errant passes and playing too fast at times. But he did get to the line 15 times thanks to his combination of elite quickness and good ball handling ability. He has a tight crossover that is able to break down defenses. Jackson needs to learn to slow his game down and become more of a constant nuisance on defense, but he has himself in discussions as a second rounder.

For Texas, there has been a lot of positive things to say about them until Javan Felix's performance yesterday. The Longhorns offense has been a mess a season, lacking spacing or any kind of rhythm. Texas has always been at their best with players off all shapes and sizes who can shoot and stretch their defense. It has appeared the Rick Barnes is still trying to run the same sets with this personnel, yet without the shooters. Finally yesterday, Felix took control of the offense through the pick and roll game. He finished with 26 points and 9 assists while only handing the ball over to the defense once. The performance was as impressive as it sounds - he ran the pick and roll with poise and was able to get lots of good looks in the mid-range area. Baylor didn't defend it well, something that might have had to do with Drew being out, but Felix deserves the credit for this one.

Murray State vs SE Missouri State

Ed Daniel - Daniel's endurance was on full display, bringing his energy for 37 minutes in a game that was close post of the way. Daniel is the same kind of player as Ben Wallace or Kenneth Faried - two other small school products who come from the southeast. He's not as good, but he has a good shot at making a NBA team.

At this level, he does a great job at running down the court to establish deep low post position in the paint. He isn't a bully with his size, but does possess great quickness and determination. His post game is basic, relying on a running right handed hook shot and and vanilla arsenal of ball fakes. He hit a foul line jumper in this game. His jumpshot is more of a touch shot though - and he has good touch, but his range doesn't look promising - 10 feet and in. With Isaiah Canaan, his main role on offense is more as a screener and rebounder than a go-to threat.

Defensively, Daniel moves like a small forward and has a tremendous IQ. He brings non-stop energy and is willing to lay his body on the line at all times. He plays great help defense and puts great pride in keeping his man out of the paint (although he can get pushed around at times). Daniel has a chiseled frame that has obviously seen the weight room, much like Faried's in college, but could focus on adding more girth. He has a Faried level body and athleticism. He isn't quite the rebounder, but 11 boards in 29 minutes is not too shabby.

Daniel has improved on his numbers drastically this year and he credits it to the confidence he gained in the all-star camps he attended with Canaan over the summer. He only grabbed 5.5 boards in 24 minutes just last year. This kind of improvement on the glass is something that is unprecedented.

Isaiah Canaan was battling with an injury in this game, but got hot in the second half to bring Murray State into the lead. After a quiet first half, he ended up finishing with 28 points. Canaan doesn't need to be fully healthy to score - all he needs is enough room to get his jump shot off. And thats not a lot of room. Canaan has grown used to the opposition switching on the pick and roll and leaving him to shoot over a big man. The opposition knows Canaan prefers to shoot than drive, so the switching makes sense, but Canaan has adjusted. Next to Deshaun Thomas, he is probably the best shooter in the country when it comes to off-balanced, contested jumpers.

Lehigh vs VCU

For the second time, CJ McCollum let down scouts that flocked to see him play. The first time was when he sat out against North Texas, this time McCollom broke his foot in the first half and is now potentially out the entire regular season.

In the 15 minutes McCollom did play, he was 0-5 from the field. VCU gave him a heavy dose of the havoc defense each time he touched the ball and essentially took him out of the game even before he got hurt. Lehigh still tried to keep getting him the ball, but he was unable to find the open men under the duress of the defense. Once McCollom was forced to the bench, Lehigh actually was able to develop some rhythm since they didn't continue to look for CJ in double teams. They ended up giving VCU a game, eventually losing 59-55. 

New Years Eve Preview

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh 12pm ESPN2

Finally, a chance for Pittsburgh to prove they are a better team than they are getting credit for. Pittsburgh has flown under the radar all season, but looks like a top 15 team to me. The are actually favored in this game against the Bearcats, who are coming off a close loss at home to New Mexico. The Bearcats will have trouble with Pittsburgh physical and deep interior - led by the much improved Talib Zanna. Joining Zanna down low are JJ Moore (their second best inside player), Steven Adams (Cincinnati may play too fast for him to play a lot of minutes), and Dante Taylor (despised by Pitt fans, but isn't too shabby as a backup big). Its a deep frontline even with Khem Birch transferring last year and Malcolm Gilbert leaving this week.

Zanna is one of the most underrated players in the country and his play so far should've been enough for analysis to consider him for one of the 3 All-American teams. But without a lot of big games yet, nobody is biting on Zanna's breakout year yet. He's had hot starts before, but this year is different. His game has evolved greatly on the offensive end.

Pittsburgh is back to its ways of tough defense and rebounding. The addition of James Robinson can't be understated either. He is replacing Ashton Gibbs who was a great scorer, but a terrible defender in his senior year. Robinson is a Dematha product and a winner at heart. He has excellent poise and suffocating defense. His impact has not only been felt at Pitt, but at Dematha as well - as Dematha is off to a 4-3 start to their season. That is more loses than Robinson had his entire career.

Michigan State at Minnesota 2pm ESPN2

Ahhh, Big Ten play. This is the best part of New Year's Eve. Its the sign of matchups like this happening almost every day. Two tough defensive teams going at it. The most intriguing battle here is Brandon Dawson against Rodney Williams, both of whom will get a lot of run at the 4 position. Neither are particularly skilled, but both stick to their strengths. For Dawson, it is being a terror on the offensive glass. For Williams, it is all about his defense and delivering timely highlight dunks. How will Dawson fare against a better athlete than him? And how will Williams match Dawson's energy and strength? The senior SHOULD have the advantage, but we will see. Also, the Andre Hollins watch is on. He is in Big Ten play now - can he keep up his impressive play?

St. Joseph's at Drexel 4pm

Classic Philly battle. Not full of any big prospects, but should be a close and intense matchup to entertain you between 4pm-6pm.

Gonzaga at Oklahoma State 6pm ESPN2

Gonzaga has had well documented problems this year keeping explosive guards in front of them. Marcus Smart is a explosive guard who knows how to score. He has cooled off a bit after a lightning hot start to the season and this is a chance for him to keep his name on the forefront of scouts minds. Another big matchup here is how LeBryan Nash handles Elias Harris' defense. Actually, this is a REALLY interesting battle. Nash isn't going to be able to bully Harris or blow by him easily. How will Nash adjust? Nash won't be expected to score all over him, but will he at least recognize this and play smart? Last year he struggled with forcing things. This year he has been better, but that is because he hasn't faced anyone like Harris. Harris, by the way, has played himself back into NBA Draft conversations. Oklahoma State is the favorite in this game - but I'll take the underdogs in a close one.

Nevada at Oregon 7pm Pac-12 Network

The Washington Huskies are the reason Deonte Burton and Nate Wolters both originally got put on the map. Last year Burton dropped 31 points on them and followed it up with a 29 point performance this season. Beating up on the likes of Tony Wroten and Abdul Gaddy on the defensive end isn't as impressive as the name makes it seem. Regardless, Burton is an intriguing player despite being prematurely thrust into draft conversations.  I think he has made strides since last season.

Oregon also has some prospects I want to get added looks at - Damyean Dotson, Tony Woods, Arsalan Kazemi, and Dominic Artis. Dotson has the greatest potential of the bunch.

North Texas at Middle Tennessee State 8pm ESPNU

I've written about Tony Mitchell quite a few times, including the other day. 

More Thoughts From the Weekend Games

I'm still pouring over games from the weekend, as it was jammed packed full up hoops action. I just want to get some of my thoughts down as I continue to dissect the play of certain prospects.

UNC vs UAB

- This was a typical North Carolina game where they just used their talent to run their opponent off the court. A 18 point win over UAB doesn't mean anything other than they are more talented than the Blazers. We know that. The questions about UNC are still as prominent as ever.

- One of those questions is their scoring options, which I've been harping on since the summer. But another problem is their big men. McAdoo is obviously their best big and he's not living up to expectations. Brice Johnson has been a pleasant surprise, but he can't hold his own inside. He's the type of player UNC usually has the luxury of not playing during his freshman year.

While those two may be the best bigs UNC has (which is lightyears away from the Zeller/Henson frontline of last year), they are both finesse bigs that are already getting pushed around. Once ACC play starts, this problem will be even more evident.

Joel James got the start against UAB over Desmond Hubert, but only logged 12 minutes. He fumbled a few passes and was unable to defend UAB's face up big men so he quickly got yanked. Hubert only played 7 minutes and it actually was the best 7 minutes I've seen out of him.

Thats UNC's big man rotation. A overhyped sophomore who can't handle the expectations, a skinny freshman who can't handle inside play, a big man still trying to get in shape, and Hubert who was signed purely for depth.

James will get better and he is the guy they need to step up during ACC play. He's shown flashes of brilliance at times. Johnson has the quick catch and shoot turnaround jumper down to a science, but the rest of his game is very raw. He is just way too weak to be an effective ACC player at this point.

- In the UAB game, McAdoo hit quite a few jumpers which was the most promising thing about his performance Saturday. And those jumpers weren't just the typical 10 footers he hits. He showed range out to 18 feet and had to have hit at least 4 or 5. His favorite spot seems to be on the left baseline.

Other than that, McAdoo continues to turn it over a lot - 6 times against the Blazers. Its not that McAdoo makes bad decisions or is a poor ball handler for a big man, I think its mainly because of his lack of strength. He is very soft with the ball in his hands. He gets pushed around inside leaving him off balance and vulnerable to turning it over. Its something that I realized would be a problem last year when watching him rebound. He has a solid frame but the strength and toughness (both mental and physical) isn't there yet.

- In other news, Reggie Bullock has started to put the ball on the floor to create shots. It will never be his game and we are seeing so-so results, but somebody has to step up and its good to see he's trying. Bullock will be a solid pro because of his 3-pt shooting and defense, but being able to keep the defense honest with the rest of his game could help him become a starter at the next level.

- PJ Hairston is still settling for too many jumpers. I'm not sure if injuries have limited his athleticism or lack of conditioning, but he's not as dynamic as he was supposed to be coming out of high school. He's a steaky chucker at this point.

Creighton vs St. Joe's

This game was expected to be closer, but the Blue Jays blew the doors off the Hawks early for the 80-51 win. The first half wasn't pretty for the Hawks, who watched McDermott go off for 17 in about the first ten minutes. Ronald Roberts Jr also had to sit out most of the first half with two fouls.

In the second half, St. Joe's played them much better. St. Joe's should be fine moving forward, one bad half doesn't change their promising outlook that has them favorite to win their conference.

- Some view CJ Aiken as a second round pick this year but I just don't see it. So far he is having a worse season in pretty much every way than the year before. The biggest thing though is he is so skinny. His body hasn't changed at all and his narrow shoulders aren't going to ever allow for much weight. Gregory Echenique  looked twice as wide as him and abused him inside.

Aiken is a very springy athlete and quick laterally. He gets a lot of blocks even when giving up deep post position. He is a Jarvis Varnado kind of defender - except not has long or dominant blocking shots. Aiken also seems interested in playing some small forward, but has no ball skills to speak of. Plus, he is 4-21 from behind the arc this season. I talked about Brice Johnson earlier - Aiken is Brice Johnson in two years if he doesn't gain any weight.

- St. Joe's best prospect in my opinion is actually Ronald Roberts Jr. He didn't have a very good game against Creighton - having as many TOs as points (3), but he is much more of a true post player than Aiken. He has a good feel with his back to the basket and teammates seem to like getting him the ball. They know he will get the ball back to them if he can't get a good shot and he can help them get open looks. He also shows a nice 15 foot jumper and solid footwork. He sports a chiseled frame that can handle added weight and he's been a great rebounder this season.

Roberts won't get enough work inside this season to get noticed, but he could breakout in his senior season. Roberts doesn't have a high ceiling, but he could work his way into the second round or at least a Portsmouth invite next season.

Pittsburgh vs Detroit

For awhile, it looked like Detroit would win this game. They entered the first half up by 8, but Jamie Dixon made some nice adjustments at the half to eventually win the game 74-61. Part of it was slowing down Ray McCallum Jr who had 17 first half points. His first bucket in the second half, a three, didn't come until about ten minutes into play.

- Ive seen McCallum four times this season now, and so far, he's doing his best CJ McCollom impersonation by handling the scoring for Detroit. And really, he's doing it just as good as CJ. Which makes me wonder how some people can list McCollom as a lottery pick yet have McCallum in the second round.

McCallum has proved his jumper can be just as lethal as CJ's and he is just as good at getting it off with his quick release and ankle-breaking crossover move. And with Ray, there is no question about whether he can play point guard at the next level - that is what he does. This season he is just proving he can step into the scoring role and its been a seamless transition. I'm not knocking McCollom, I'm more wondering where the love is for Ray. He is a sure fire first round pick in my opinion that should get consideration in the top 20. Maybe even higher.

- Steven Adams only played 12 minutes and scored 2 points. He had a tough matchup on Minnerath, who is a big man who likes to step out on the perimeter. Adams has gone through the process of getting his feet wet and feeling out the waters. He looked afraid of having the ball int he first few games and now is working in the paint like he actually wants to receive a pass. His 2 points came on a nice post up play where he got nice position and turned quickly over his shoulder for an easy bucket. His teammates looked to get him the ball more, but he didn't do a good job sealing off his position and keeping his defender behind him in the post. Most of the entry passes to him ended up being broken up.

There is no doubt Adams has plenty of work to do and has to become more aggressive getting the ball and using his body. This goes for rebounding too. Adams should be a beast on the boards, but his skills look very poor at this point. He doesn't react quickly, struggled to catch the ball, and doesn't hold onto the ball well when he does. He rarely rebounds outside his area.

If there is one thing Adams needs to prove he can do this season, its rebound. Scouts will be patient with the rest of the game.

Speaking of scouts, Sam Presti was on hand for the Pitt vs Detroit game. He has a reason to be looking at Adams as OKC owns Toronto's probable lottery pick. Presti is always looking for a big enforcer inside and Adams is right down his alley. Presti also had to like the scoring he saw out of McCallum and Talib Zanna's continued success. Zanna's play so far definitely warrants a second round pick.

Is Pitt Legit? + Plus More Thoughts on Adams

Pittsburgh just finished up beating Lehigh in an impressive fashion and it begs the question of just how good Pittsburgh is. Expectations were tempered after last year's struggles, but Jamie Dixon has a history of winning and winning his way. This team is back to the mold of the past, with strong interior play and aggressive guards who know how to score. They are back to controlling the boards, bullying their opponents  and doing the little things that don't show up in the stat sheet.

The poster boy, or should I say manchild, for their reemergence is Talib Zanna, a junior who has shown flashes in the past but seems like he's ready to be a consistent performer. He gives Pittsburgh scoring inside and teams with Adams on defense to form a tough lane to penetrate. Zanna plays with a great motor and has been able to score efficiently simply by outhustling the opponents down the court. He's showcased an improving jumper as well. Also sporting a slimmed down frame, he is able to give the Panthers more hard played minutes than in the past.

While Zanna provides post scoring and defense, Steven Adams is the shot blocking presence on defense. Together, the form one of the best frontcourt defenses in the country. With the frontcourt depth they are able to bring off the bench - Durand Johnson, JJ Moore, and Dante Taylor - they can control the glass against just about anyone. Dixon has been able to keep everyone fresh and Zanna and Adams have rarely committed fouls.

The frontcourt does all the little things and you can add small forward Lamar Patterson into that mix. Ever since I saw him in high school, I pegged him as a swiss army knife type of role player. He doesn't need the ball but gets after it on defense and passes well for a forward.

Zanna and Adams have been able to fit well together. There may have been a lingering concern that they could have went the way of the Oriakhi/Drummond situation in UConn last year. Instead, they play off each other. Adams likes to occupy the low post and set screens while Zanna has been able to step out to the high post thanks to his improved offensive game. They have proven early on that they can be on the court at the same time. That may have not been true if Zanna was at the same weight and skill level as in years past.

The biggest concern was how Pitt was going to score and the frontcourt isn't the answer for that. Transfer Trey Zeigler is a known scorer and should have his moments, but senior Tray Woodall has been huge for them so far. He's going to need more help from Zeigler and they lack the depth, although freshman Robinson has shown a steady hand on the ball. Scoring has been good thus far, but it will remain their biggest issue. Can they knock down threes? Thats another issue.

For now, their frontcourt has been the reason why they are cruising to victories. And really, should that be a surprise from a Jamie Dixon team? It seems as if the Panthers are back to their old tricks.

Notes on Steven Adams:

Adams chipped in 6 points on 3-7 shooting, but only came up with 4 rebounds. He was the weakest rebounder statistically among their big men but was able to tip a few balls to keep them alive. He has to do a better job being strong with the ball after he gets it. He got stripped at least once tonight.

Offensively, Pitt tried to work him the ball more than they did in the first half last game. He was able to get deep post position and he does a nice job presenting himself as a target. He shows nice touch around the rim and Im sure more aggressiveness will come. He already looked better than last game. He's gonna improve. On few occasions though, Adams has looked to pass the ball before even thinking to score - this when he gets good position. Adams just needs to go up and finish strong in those situations. He did make a few solid passes to go along with a bad forced pass to Zanna. He even stepped out and took a 15 foot jumper that almost went in. Good form.

Defensively, he was a force yet again. Early on he was able to step out of pick and roll defense and hedge on McCollom well. He sent one shot hard into the stands and got a piece of another one. He does a real good job maintaining position down low and not biting for fakes. He has a big body and allows it to do the work for him.