Stock Attack: Michael Carter-Williams

When I'm evaluating point guard prospects, I take a especially close look at their ability to control the tempo of the game, I also like to see how they handle adversity, run the pick and roll, change speeds, and balance scoring and passing. A point guard cannot disappear during the game. A point guard has to be the rock of the team. That is what I am looking for, guys with those traits.

Trey Burke has all of that. When it comes to Michael Carter-Williams, I'm hesitant to say he possesses any of those qualities. He disappeared from plenty of games. His passing consisted of a lot of drive and kicks and transition feeds. Yes, MCW did post great assists numbers. But how the assists were obtained are more important. When I look at MCW, I ask if he can consistently make plays out of the pick and roll and find teammates. Or if he can control the pace, set the offense, and make the simple plays. Where is his mid-range game? Carter-Williams makes a lot of spectacular plays and is a helluva talent, but he hasn't shown he can be a model of consistency. That is troubling from a point guard prospect.

There were a lot of games where Carter-Williams was quiet for an entire half and dominated the other. For some guys, thats just a matter of them knowing when to take over. For Carter-Williams, it was more of him being taken out of the game by the defense.

We are talking about a guy whose skills aren't up to par. He shoots a very flat shot with inconsistent mechanics. Some say he was a better shooter in HS, but that doesn't mean anything to me after he's had more than a full season at the college level. I saw that he did shoot well in Nike's EYBL events in AAU, but I don't take much stock into that. Those rims are very kind to make the players look better and benefit guys who don't shoot with much arc.

If you can't make shots consistently, the rest of your game better be refined. Carter-Williams is not. His ball handling skills are weak and magnified by his lack of strength. When he drives and the defense doesn't collapse on him to give him a passing option, he struggles to finish. He does have a nice floater, but can't get it off consistently. He lacks an explosive first step. Instead, Carter-Williams has to rely on his above average quickness for his size and a solid crossover. It works, but its much more of a shooting guard move than a point guard.

A point guard shouldn't need to overdribble to get his shot off. A point guard should understand how to change speeds and work the pick and roll game effectively. Burke was never taken out of games because he could always makes plays if he got a ball screen. Carter-Williams has a tougher task to operate in the pick and roll due to his height and he doesn't do himself any favors either. He doesn't change speeds well or mix up his strides. He's very shaky with the ball when two defenders are around him and his passing instincts look much more raw when it comes to more advanced plays.

Again, the drive and kick play is the most simple way for a point guard to get assists. Its the most basic play that any point guard should be able to execute. Carter-Williams can do it with the best of them in college, but  that doesn't make him a point guard. That is just the initial layer to being a point guard and when you look for more layers to his game, they aren't present.

Carter-Williams also struggled mightily against ball pressure as you saw if you watched the Big East Championship game against Louisville. For the first half, MCW and Cuse played well enough to have the lead. In the second half, Louisville turned up their defensive pressure and completely blew out Syracuse. The difference in halves was remarkable and the biggest blame goes to the point guard.

Then there was the Final 4 game against Michigan. Carter-Williams fouled out and went to the bench crying as if the game was over. Except it wasn't and Syracuse almost won the game. But there he was sitting on the bench with his head buried in a towel instead of cheering on his team. A leader doesn't act as if the game is over because he fouled out. Throughout the year, Syracuse was one of the most up and down teams in the country and there wasn't much leadership coming from their point guard. For a guy who should be the rock of the team, Carter-Williams was one of the most inconsistent players - both with his play on the court and in his emotions. You shouldn't ever get too high or too low as a basketball player - especially as a point guard. Its yet another thing Michael Carter-Williams has to overcome.

He gets some comparisons to Shaun Livingston but Livingston was a great athlete coming out of high school while Carter-Williams is just "good" athletically. Also, Carter-Williams wasn't even considered a point guard coming out of HS and there was a reason for that. Shaun Livingston had such pure point guard skills he was compared to Magic Johnson.

Defensively, Michael Carter-Williams has all the tools and good instincts to go with it. He had plenty of steals operating at the top of the zone and while his length and the system certainly helped, his ability to play the passing lanes should somewhat translate to the NBA. The biggest worry about his defense though is that he doesn't have experience at a high level playing man to man defense. And in recent times, Syracuse players have really struggled to make the adjustment. Even guys like Wes Johnson who people believed had all the athletic tools to make up for player in a zone. Right now, its just a very risky proposition to take a Syracuse player for his defensive ability. Carter-Williams could turn out to be very good defensively, but I wouldn't view it as a sure thing.

Potential is a word that is often associated with Michael Carter-Williams when you point out all these flaws. Sure, he has the height that most other point guards don't have. You can't teach size. But its also very hard to learn and improve all his other weaknesses when there are so many. There is potential and then there is the chances a player reaches his potential. I understand that you can't count out a guy improving his skills, but you can say a guy won't grow, but I'll take players with the necessary skills and ability over a guy with height anyday. Those attributes are very hard to improve as well. And at the age of 21, Michael Carter-Williams is far from the youngest player in the draft.

Stock Attack: Mason Plumlee

Every year there are a couple of players that jump out at me as extremely overrated and Mason Plumlee headlines that list in 2013. He's been projected in the lottery, even top 10, all season long and still sits in the lottery discussion today. His stock looks more unstable now with Gorgui Dieng getting a lot of recognition and Steven Adams deciding to enter the draft, but there is still a strong belief that Plumlee will be a solid third big man.

Personally, I've never seen it with him. I've said all season long that Gorgui Dieng is the better prospect and still stand by it. Dieng makes fewer mental mistake, can consistently hit jumpers, and is a bigger presence at the rim.

Scouts like Mason Plumlee because he has improved every year. Thats one way at looking at it. But I see a guy who vastly underachieved his first few seasons given his situation and athleticism. Name me a Duke player who hasn't made big strides under Coach K. Look at how Nolan Smith is looking in the NBA.

This year Mason Plumlee did look much better, in part because he was more aggressive. He wasn't afraid of going to the foul line anymore since his shooting at the line improved.

History says that seniors that improve a lot their final year aren't to be trusted and the eye test gives similar concerns. If it takes you four years to put it together at a school like Duke when you have great athleticism, that sends up some major red flags. Coach K consistently gets the most out of his players, gets them drafted higher than they should be, and then we hear all about how Duke can't produce NBA players. Yet time and time again everyone falls into the trap of Coach K's magic.

Of course, evaluating prospects is a still a case by case basis. While Plumlee has his age and school as red flags, that is no way to determine if a guy is overrated. But when you watch Plumlee play, the amount of mental mistakes he makes throws up yet another red flag.

Then you get to talking about his position. Is he a power forward or a center? His mechanical style, lack of lateral quickness, smarts, or shooting ability suggest that he can't play power forward well. But as a center, his narrow hips and 6'10 wingspan are both major deterrents. You can improve your upperbody strength all you want, but genetically small hips are a different story.

But what about his offensive game, you say? He did put up over 17ppg in the ACC. But what translates? He isn't hitting jumpers at a consistent rate. He constantly got pushed out of good post position on the block due to lack of strength. Plumlee did show off an improved post game this year and as I said, his aggressiveness didn't hurt either. But his post game is still very mechanical. There is no rhyme or reason to his moves. He makes a lot of awful plays the end of successful because of his athleticism and new found confidence. Take away some of that confidence he gained from this season and you are back to a passive player without much else. And its a fact that his confidence will take a hit once he reaches the NBA - it happens to most players.

Plumlee's post moves consist of a nice right handed hook shot and then a lot of freestyle. A lot of stuff he won't get away with at the next level. He can't freestyle his way to the rim in the pros from post position 15 feet out. The help defense is too good.

It is really hard to pinpoint what Plumlee's strengths will be at the next level. Is it his defense or offense? Is he just a good all-around player or a player who isnt good at anything?

I've been leaning towards the latter side so much that I've fallen over. And based of Mason Plumlee's lack of balance, he better be careful he doesn't bust and fall on his face as well.

Scouting Report: Khalif Wyatt

After getting upset by 12th seeded South Florida in the second round of the NCAA tournament, Khalif Wyatt was poised to takeover the team in his senior season. Wyatt scored 19 points in that game while the rest of the team struggled - including the two other top scoring guards - Juan Fernandez and Ramone Moore who combined to score a measley 6 points. With Moore and Fernandez departing, Wyatt was in line to become the senior leader and go-to-guy his senior year.

Unfortunately, things got off to a rough patch right away. This past summer, Wyatt was arrested in for soliciting a prostitute during his 21st birthday weekend in Vegas. Wyatt cooperated with authorities and ended up being cleared to play to start the 2012-13 season. Prior to that, Wyatt had missed a game at the beginning of his junior year for a "minor internal matter". 

Despite those red flags, Wyatt has displayed good leadership and character on the court and seems to be a good guy who just loves the game of basketball. Wyatt never allows himself to get to excited or disappointed on the basketball court, displaying the same demeanor even after hitting clutch shots or converting a 4 point play. NBA teams will certainly look into his arrest and prior suspension and its not a good thing for a fringe pro prospect to have on his resume, but those occurrences seem to just be lapses in judgement.

On the court, Wyatt is a complete gamer who has came up big when his team has needed him the most. Wyatt road the bench for his freshman year and the non-conference portion of his sophomore season, but earned playing time during conference play and ended up being a key component on a team that lost to San Diego State in 2OT for the right to go to the Sweet Sixteen. 

But that was only the beginning for Wyatt, who dropped 20+ points againt the likes of Duke, Texas, and Maryland - each time while converting over 50% of his field goals. His introduction to the national stage, however, came this year with a 33 point performance against #3 Syracuse en route to a huge upset victory. Wyatt followed that up by tossing in 26 against Kansas, 24 against St. Louis, 22 vs Butler, and a 35 point game against Duquesne where he attempted to carry the team on his back by himself - before losing by 1 point in OT. Then today, Wyatt notched 30 points in OT against a ranked VCU team, a win that could help secure their spot in this year's NCAA Tournament. Wyatt's season has put him in the immediate conversation for A-10 player of the year.

The best way to describe Wyatt's style of play is "old school". He has an old man's game that reminds you of the saavy player at your local rec center. Wyatt stands at 6'4 with a strong frame, but lacks ideal length and athleticism. To put it nicely - Wyatt isn't the fastest player around. And his body, covered by a baggy t-shirt, isn't the typical chiseled frame you are used to seeing.

He is strong, though. He shot 62% at the rim this year according to hoop-math.com which isn't great for an NBA talent, but for a guy who attacks the basket regularly with Wyatt's type of athleticism, it is impressive. The way Wyatt does it is by outsmarting opponents. There is a lot of junk in his game that he uses to throw off defenders. He's a master of drawing fouls inside and has the ability to adjust in the air and change his shot. Wyatt can barely dunk, but finishes some of the toughest shots in the lane you will see. He deals with contact in the lane at an exceptional level and can finish with either hand. And when he gets to the line, he usually converts - Wyatt shot over 82% from the line during his 4 years.

Wyatt's jumper extends well beyond the college 3-pt line as well. He can hit from anywhere on the court. While Wyatt doesn't have a devasting crossover to get open, he tends to coax defenders to sleep with his dribble and fades back slightly to get shots off. Wyatt's range extends beyond the NBA line even and his patented leg kick has sent him to the line after getting fouled multiple times to convert a 4-pt play. Wyatt isn't only great at drawing fouls inside the arc - he is truly a master of getting to the line all over the court.

In terms of passing, Wyatt is a combo guard through and through. He is a good passer and is unselfish, but he looks mainly for his own shot. You don't see Wyatt drive and dish a lot - for one, he isn't the type of guy to break down defenses and have them collapse on him. If they do, Wyatt sees this as a prime opportunity to hunt for contact and get himself to the line. So if Wyatt, is in the lane, he rarely is looking to kick it out to an open defender. That isn't to say he is selfish, that is just him playing to his strengths. Wyatt does do a good job of anticipating teammates getting open when he has the ball outside the arc. He delivers bullet passes with great timing to set up guys for easy looks at the basket. His height helps him see over defenders and he sees the court like a chess board. He can direct his teammates into good positions and see plays before they happen. 

The biggest concern with his game, and ultimately the reason why its unlikely he makes the NBA, is his defense. Wyatt is already behind the curve based on his physicall attributes and ability. He lacks the quickness to defend point guards - and even most SGs on the perimeter - and his length isn't good enough to contest jumpers of most wing players. Furthermore, Wyatt has never shown great intensity on the defensive end. His focus wanes and he can wander while looking for an opportunity to create a fastbreak. One thing Wyatt does well is get steals. Wyatt has very strong and quick hands and can strip guys going up for shots or  steal the ball from a ball handler. Wyatt has also never been a good rebounder.

Wyatt is unlikely to get drafted or ever become a known name by NBA fans, but his career should continue to blossom overseas or in the D-League. He is the kind of player who loves the game and will figure out how to put the ball in the basket against any competition. His games against teams like Syracuse prove that he can finish among great athletes and play with the best. He isn't a good enough shot creator, athlete, or defender for the NBA but will be a valuable player and make plenty of money elsewhere.

Scouting Report: Erick Green

Its rare for a player in a big time conference to lead the nation in scoring and it is even more rare for someone to do that and get as little publicity as Virginia Tech's Erick Green has gotten. Green is the first player from a major conference to lead the NCAA in scoring since Glenn Robinson did it in 1994 and the only other player in ACC history to do it was South Carolina's Grady Wallace back in 1957.

Green is used to traveling under the radar. Virginia Tech was the only ACC school that was willing to allow him to realize his dream of playing ACC basketball. Green spent his senior season in high school playing at Paul VI, a basketball power in the DMV area, and showed off the same impressive scoring ability that he has continued to do in college.

Green was a combo guard coming out of high school, and still is to this point, but that doesn't mean he is incapable of running the point position or making plays. Green is actually a very smart and unselfish decision maker and is certainly accustomed to having the ball in his hand.

After two seasons watching and learning from Malcolm Delaney at Virginia Tech, Erick Green took over the scoring load during his junior season. The Hokies had made the NIT the previous two years, but since Green has been the leader they've been relegated to the bottom of the ACC Standings.

While his lack of winning ways beg questions that need answering, it is important to understand what Virginia Tech lost after his sophomore season and the type of talent he is currently surrounded with. Green is the sole playmaker on the team and is asked to do virtually everything - including be their defensive stopper at times. While winning would have helped Green's talent get recognized more, it is very unfair to write him off as a prospect because he hasn't won in Blacksburg. Virginia Tech has been without a threat in the post or a secondary ball handler in each of the past two season.

It is a major bonus to his character that he hung around in Blacksburg and never showed any frustration. After Seth Greenburg left and Dorian Finney-Smith - their hope for the future - transferred, it was apparent that Green's senior year may be a long one and a rebuilding season for the program. Yet he didn't ever entertain leaving and came into this season as one of the most improved players in the country. He was always a positive influence at Virginia Tech, loved by both fans and teammates alike. Even though he was clearly the most talented player on his team, he never acted like he was above everyone else. NBA teams can breath easy knowing the have a good character guy on their hands if they decide to draft him.

Erick Green stands at about 6-3 with long, lanky arms (6'6.5'') and a slender frame. He is deceptively quick and extremely fast in the open court. Green does a ton of damage in transition, often refusing to be stopped until a defender is forced to foul him. Green is also an excellent shooter of the dribble, arguably the most prolific in the country, and has no problem getting shots off. His scoring exploits come from a combination of transition opportunities, off the dribble mid-range jumpers, and pick and roll plays. 

Green loves to use the pick and roll and head to his left, although he tends to finish with his right hand. He is very deceptive and crafty with the ball and handles the basketball like it is on a string. He can toy with defenders and is the cause of plenty of sore ankles. Green combines his crossover move with subtle head fakes, shiftiness, and hesitations to keep the defense completely off balance. He is able to create space in the mid-range at will and has hit these tough jumpers at over a 40% rate the past two years - most of the created all by himself off the bounce. Although Green creates space for his shots with his dribble, he also has a natural fade on his jumper and gets good separation that way. In terms of shooting closely contested twos, only Isaiah Canaan and Deshaun Thomas can call themselves his peer.

At the NBA level, scorers are usually asked to do more than hit contested two point shots though. No matter how good you are at making them, contested twos are something a lot of GMs and coaches have looked to get away from as the statistical evolution continues. It certainly doesn't render Green's skills useless, but he will need to be able to bring more to a team than just his mid-range game.

The main variable in whether Erick Green will be a successful NBA player is his frame. Right now, he is very skinny and has trouble getting all the way to the rim and finishing. Green does a great job of being creative and has mastered the appropriate footwork en route to the rim (as well as a nice floater), but his strength and average at best leaping is tough to compensate for. Green won't near as many transition opportunities in the NBA and will need to be able to get tough points inside in a halfcourt offense.

Green shares some similarities to the Pacer's George Hill who was also an excellent scorer in college as a combo guard. Hill has made the successful transition to point guard and I believe Green shares the same qualities as a basketball player. Green is smart enough to run an offense and has no trouble being unselfish. He has been a great leader during his stay at Virginia Tech while continuing to compete all the way until the end of his senior season. But again, the difference between Green and Hill comes down to their physical profile. Hill has put on weight since coming into the league, but he had the profile of a stronger guard coming out of college - complete with wide shoulders. Green's shoulders on the other hand, don't suggest much room for growth.

As a three point shooter, Green has hit shots at around a 38% clip in his final two years on campus - showing much improvement from his sub-30% figures his first two seasons. Green has certainly put in the work to improve his shot and has increased his range from 18 feet to beyond the college 3. Green's stroke however, is much more conducive to being a good mid-range/off the dribble shooter than it is for being a great NBA 3-pt shooter. For one, Green puts a lot of effort into his shot and it looks like stepping back a few more feet for NBA 3s will be a bit of an adjustment for him. Green also uses a lot of his legs in a swinging motion and fades on his shots - great for mid-range shots as I said - but his release is a little lengthy for a spot up shooter. I think Green will be a solid 3-pt shooter in the league, but I don't think that it will be his ticket for playing time.

As for his defense, Green has been very impressive with both his ability and effort on that end of the court. Considering his workload he handles on offense, it would be almost expected that he takes breathers on defense but it seems he takes great pride in both sides of the ball. Green has the length and lateral quickness to bother players and is disruptive in the passing lanes. He has great anticipation skills and rarely makes any mental errors. Some will look at him and project him as a versatile defender who can cover both guard spots while there will be others who will question his quickness to cover PGs and his strength in covering SGs. His defense may, once again, come down to how much strength he is able to put on. Regardless, I don't think Green will be a reliability on defense simply because of his length, effort, and basketball IQ.

Moving forward, a lot of Green's success will depend on his frame's development., but I like him as a prospect. He is certainly underrated and is one of the better senior guard prospects in the country. He could sneak up into the late first/early second round territory after teams are down evaluating the film and discover he may be the best immediate option if they need a scoring guard. As of now, I believe he is clearly the best senior PG ahead of Nate Wolters, Isaiah Canaan, Matthew Dellavedova, and Pierre Jackson and possesses the most upside as well. He shouldn't have a problem playing the NBA's version of PG as long as he has a solid ball handler beside him.

Examining the Weaknesses of Title Contenders

This has been a year of upsets and parity in college hoops, making it one of the most fun seasons in awhile to follow. There is no media darling who is projected to waltz to the final four and plenty of mid-major teams capable of pulling off early round upsets. All of the top teams have noticeable weaknesses and could be out before the Sweet 16 if they draw the wrong team. With that said, here is a look at what the top teams DON'T want to see awaiting them come Selection Sunday.

Indiana - Indiana is my favorite to win it all as of now, but they still have their flaws. Away from Assembly Hall, the Hoosiers have been suspect to coming out flat and lacking the intimidation factor they have at home. They have lost to a couple of halfcourt teams - Wisconsin, Butler, Minnesota, and nearly falling to Georgetown - and have struggled a lot with physical play inside. Just this week, Trevor Mbakwe proved that if you punch Cody Zeller in the mouth, he will be tentative the rest of the game. And with Christian Watford playing next to him, there is plenty of room to score in the paint. Making Indiana defend for 35 seconds is key. Each of their loses have come when teams chose to slow the pace down and attack the middle of the Hoosier's defense. Another thing that is helpful to beat Indiana is having a good pair of guards and and big man inside that can deter Indiana from getting to the foul line. The Hoosiers lead the nation in free throw attempts.

Duke - Getting Ryan Kelly back certainly helps their problems as he will create space for Plumlee inside on offense while also stabilizing the defense. Kelly takes a lot of pressure off Curry and Plumlee, who were the only two consistent options they had. And with Plumlee's limited offensive game and Curry's size, it wasn't hard to key on them and slow them down. Now the attention focuses to the defensive end, specifically the guards, were they are undersized and lack the swagger of previous teams. In the past, Duke had guys like Jay Williams, Chris Duhon, DeMarcus Nelson, and Nolan Smith leading the defense and slapping the floor while daring an opponent to drive on them. Now they have Curry and Cook - neither very intimidating - and both have been very susceptible to allowing 3-pters over their head. Teams with good shooting guards should provide them problems and if you lack good guards at all - you will also have a chance against them. Maryland beat them partially because Duke guard's were unable to capitalize on the unforced turnovers by the Terps and transition opportunities. Curry and Cook aren't guys who will pressure guards into mistakes.

Gonzaga - One thing that will improve your chances in beating the Bulldogs is having quick guards. Pierre Jackson, Marcus Smart, Brandon Paul, and Chris Anderson have all been able to shake up Gonzaga's defense and get them off balance. Kevin Pangos isn't especially quick laterally and with no shot blockers inside, there isn't much to deter slashers from getting into the lane. But simply getting into the lane with a quick guard won't be enough to beat them. Gonzaga has plenty of offensive firepower and the opposition will need to respond with hot shooting from outside the arc. Thats how Illinois made Gonzaga look more beatable than they have appeared the rest of the year - they took advantage of their slow perimeter defense to get into the lane and then knocked down the open jumpers that came out of it. Opponents have a great assist to turnover ratio against the Zags and there will be plenty of good point guards in the tournament that could give them trouble.

Michigan - All you have to do is stop Trey Burke. Ok, it is not that easy unless your name is Aaron Craft. But there has been framework laid out by other teams that has been successful. Illinois and Indiana have given Burke trouble by switching on every ball screen. Burke struggled to get his shot off over taller defenders, yet still settled for many jumpers. If you get Burke taking long contested twos the entire game, you don't complain. Michigan is a team that is very perimeter oriented and loves to space the floor. Switching on screens and sticking to your man will help negate what Michigan tries to do by spreading out the floor and  drawing extra defenders for kickouts to open shooters. The last thing you want to do is allow a guy like GRIII or Nik Stauskas to get open looks against you and start to get confident. On the other side of the ball, Michigan struggles with ball screens themselves where the can find themselves out of position from being too aggressive hedging. You can get good looks from outside against them and big men like Cody Zeller have killed them rolling off screens. You want big men who are good in pick and roll action and who can also rebound the ball. Michigan State and Wisconsin have taken advantage of Michigan's lack of size inside. Another weakness - Michigan is one of the least experienced teams in the nation.

Miami - The constant theme surrounding Miami this season is how good they are when they are healthy. Up until their past two losses, they had a legitimate excuse for their previous slip-ups. Durand Scott missed the first game of the year while Reggie Johnson didn't play during the tournament in Hawaii. Another thing people forget is Durand Scott played the Indiana State and Arizona games with a messed up ankle. The thing is, is depth is part of the game and Miami doesn't have it. If one of their key players gets in foul trouble, they could be in big trouble. A team that has a knack for getting to the line could force Miami to use some players that rarely get off the bench. In their worse loss of the year to Wake Forest, the Demon Deacons did just that - forcing Julian Gamble out of the game early while Rion Brown finished with 4 fouls. Miami has handled bigger teams just fine as they have some great big MEN (emphasis on men) of their own, but guys like Travis McKie, Brandon Ashley/Grant Jerrett, Ryan Kelly, and Indiana's cast of big men all are big men who spend a lot of time on the perimeter. Those have been the teams Miami has struggled against. You aren't going to be more athletic or tougher in the paint against Miami so there is no point in trying - the teams that have a shot at beating them are the teams that will play away from that and connect on a lot of shots from beyond the arc.

Scouting Report: Jackie Carmichael

Jackie Carmichael entered his senior season with very high expectations as his 21 win Illinois State squad returned mostly the same roster. He spent the summer impressing coaches and scouts alike at the LeBron James Camp with his toughness - leading to plenty of eyes watching him this year.

Illinois State looked poised to give Creighton all the could handle in the MVC, especially after a tough fought loss to Louisville and big early season wins on the road against Drexel and Dayton. Unfortunately for Carmichael and the Redbirds, they began their conference schedule with a 6 game losing streak - essentially eliminating all hopes of securing an at-large bid in the NCAA tournament. As Carmichael's career winds down, it is a perfect time to look back and what he accomplished and assess how his game will translate to the next level.

While playing under first year head coach Dan Muller, Carmichael had his best statistical season yet on a team that looked to push the pace more than past Redbird squads. Carmichael had shown steady improvement year to year and made an especially big jump following his sophomore year, where he improved his numbers across the board as well as raised his field goal percentage from 45% to a 53%.

The reason for Carmichael's improvement last year was his newfound aggressiveness, something coaches had been eager to see out of him all along. Carmichael relegated himself to a jumpshooter in his sophomore year, rendering his solid 6-8 240lb frame almost useless. According to hoop-math.com, Carmichael took only 18% of his shots at the rim during the 2010-2011 season before bringing it up to 44% last year. Attacking the rim was a huge part in his raise in efficiency and he got to the line 8.4 times per 40 minutes.

This season, Carmichael picked up where he left off in his junior year, continuing to be aggressive, and imposing himself as one of the 4 senior leaders of the Redbird team. He raised his point per game up nearly 4 points, but when the pace is adjusted for Dan Muller's new tempo, its roughly closer to a 2 point per game improvement.

Muller's tempo allowed Carmichael to show his hustle more and capitalize on more easy buckets around the rim. Carmichael isn't the most athletically gifted, but runs the court well and with purpose each and every time. He also does a good job getting open and staying ready for a pass at all times. The new offense allowed this part of his game to show a bit more.

First and foremost though, Carmichael is a halfcourt scorer who fared very well in the halfcourt sets ran. After moving outside of his comfort zone in his sophomore year as a jumpshooter, Carmichael took on a more physical role and showed off his post game.

Carmichael does a good job establishing position in the post, moving his feet to keep defenders on his back, and keeping his hands up to call for the ball. He has very soft hands and is able to receive even the toughest passes cleanly. Carmichael's go-to moves in the post are a quick turnaround jumper from either shoulder as well as a little right handed hook shot. In terms of counter moves, Carmichael is still raw in that area although he does have the potential to continue to develop. After all, Carmichael hasn't been focused on playing with his back to the basket until the last two years and in many cases, he hasn't needed a counter move.

Carmichael's feel in the post is still developing as well and he struggles with the double teams that undersized MVC teams throw at him. With a turnover rate at less than a 1:2 ratio, it is easy to say Carmichael has to improve passing out of the post. More accurately, he needs to learn not to panic when double teams come. He can rush into mistakes and also has a problem having the ball swiped from him due to him holding the ball away from his body. At times, he has to learn to accept the double team and get rid of the ball. His turnovers are also high because of his poor ball-handling skills. Whenever Carmichael puts the ball on the floor for more than one dribble, its an adventure where things rarely turn out well.

While double teams have been able to slow Carmichael down, teams that have tried to stop him by fronting him in the post have paid dearly. He has no problem establishing position from that angle and his teammates also deserve credit for getting him the ball for easy lay-ups in these situations. Its very hard to front a guy like Carmichael who is constantly moving and battling for good position.

Carmichael is best used in the pick and roll game, something that both of his coaches at Illinois State took full advantage of. As mentioned, Carmichael is very good in a set offense and has a strong understanding of timing and spacing. He will have no problem adjusting to the playbooks of the NBA and will thrive in the league where pick and roll action is king.

Carmichael understands how valuable the pick and roll can be to free him up on offense - whether it be used to help him establish post position, open jumpers, or shots at the rim. He is constantly moving around on offense screening defenders for his teammates and then floating into open areas looking for the ball. His best attributes in these situations including his feel/awareness/timing/patience, his hands, footwork, and versatile offensive game. He does a fantastic job of always making himself an available target and getting open.

His feel/awareness/timing/patience can be lumped into one category, but it is a huge part of what he is as a player. Carmichael plays like an NBA veteran already in terms of his pace of the game. He glides to spots after setting ball screens, finding weak spots in the defense for jumpers or searching for an undersized defender to put a body on and establish post position. The revelation of the latter, has enabled him to get much deeper post position than in previous season and take advantage of his strong finishing ability inside of ten feet.

His hands are another big asset that allow him to catch balls on the move when rolling towards the basket. He has large hands and a soft touch. He can release the ball rather quick near the rim and also gets of the floor quick given his size. Carmichael loves to go up strong with both hands on the ball, although he is primarly a right-handed dominant finisher. Despite his shortcomings with his left hand, Carmichael still ranks as a good finisher thanks to his strength, touch, and solid explosiveness.

Carmichael's versatility is big and includes his post up game, pick and roll game, and his ability to knock down jumpers. I mentioned his turnaround already. His turnaround right now is best used inside of 10-15 feet. He shoots it better over his left shoulder, but has shown more and more the ability to shoot it in the other direction. He isn't the type of turnaround jumpshooter who takes multiple dribbles, battles for position, and can fake one way or another. Instead, his game is pretty basic that just involves making a quick one dribble move off either shoulder - anything more is asking too much from him.

Carmichael has always had the makings of a solid jumper, but has fallen in love with it too much at times. Obviously during his sophomore year, he shot it way too much. Even now, Carmichael will take contested jumpers just inside the 3-pt line that appear to be slightly out of his range. He is a much more consistent knock down shooter inside of 15-18 feet. Further consistency and expansion of his range will go a long way in his dreams of being a NBA player.

His ability to settle for shots has been frustrating to watch at times, as he has such an imposing physical frame in the MVC. Even his turnaround jumpers in the post leave you instead wanting to see him take it into his man's body strong for a tough finish inside. Nevertheless, his offensive skills are notable.

As I said, Carmichael isn't a good ball handler, but is able to face up for a quick "gather himself" dribble while on his way to the rim for an explosive finish. He uses a convincing pump fake to get his man off balance. That dribble is key for Carmichael who is a much better jumper when he has both feet underneath him than coming off one foot. He isn't the high-flying forward that comes out from the perimeter for tip slams that you see a lot in today's NBA.

From a rebounding standpoint though, that hardly hurts him. Carmichael is a great rebounder who does a good job using his frame to carve out an large area in which every ball within reach seems to be his. His strength, ability to get off the floor, and toughness are all on display here. Carmichael relishes opportunities to do the dirty work and work harder than his opponents. In an interview with Sports Illustrated prior to this season, he was quote saying, "I am the guy who is going to bring his hard hat and lunch pail every single day and just work hard. I feel like thats what gets basketball players to that next level and where they want to be in life. I live by the quote that hard work beats talent when talent doesn't work hard".

Obviously, Jackie Carmichael has a great head on his shoulders and will be a joy in any lockerroom. His work ethic and willingness to do the dirty work will be welcomed by all coaches and he should be able to pack on more muscle on his broad frame.

Defensively, Carmichael will never be a great player, but he can be a solid NBA defender right off the bat. He understands how to move his feet, plays solid pick and roll defense, works hard to deny post position, and has posted an interesting combination of rebounds and steals this year.

A fair amount of those steals have came from either denying post entry passes or aggressive attacking the ball handler in pick and rolls - forcing them to make a rash decision. Carmichael doesn't take defense off, instead constantly battling to deny post position and never falling asleep when he is asked to defend in the pick and roll. His low center of gravity is useful in the post and his upper body should only get stronger. Carmichael is also a team first defender who generally knows when to offer help and when to stay inside to protect the paint.

His aggressive hedges on screens are aided by his solid footwork, although sometimes he is a little slow to get back to his original man. Carmichael has a solid 7 foot wingspan, but doesn't project as a impact shot deterer  and only uses his right hand to contest shots. What he does offer is the ability to slide over in front of defenders and draw charges and Carmichael has already proven himself to be a believable actor in the eyes of refs.

A large amount of Carmichael's fouls on defense come from being to aggressive in battles down low, especially when trying to go over the back for tough rebounds.

Overall, Carmichael has an all-around solid game and is ready to contribute sooner rather than later to the NBA. As a 23 year old, his stock is hurt a bit by his lack of perceived upside, although he does present some intrigue with coming out of a mid-major conference and his offensive ability. Also, the disappointing years of power forwards like James McAdoo and Tony Mitchell have made this PF class rather barren in terms of first round talent that can contribute right away. With those two and Isaiah Austin and Anthony Bennett, you have 4 great talents but none of them appear to have the maturity to contribute to a team right away. Carmichael can. So can guys like Richard Howell and Trevor Mbakwe, but with Carmichael's offensive ability - he presents more of an upside - even if he does turn out to be just a rotational big who rebounds and defends like Howell and Mbakwe project to be.

Carmichael looks to be a solid bet for the late first round at this point, although he doesn't have much room to move much higher on boards. A down year for Illinois State has shifted a lot of potential hype away from him and its unlikely they get a berth in the NCAAs or NIT. Still, look for him to be one of the first seniors called on draft night.

The 5 Best Bets in the 2013 NBA Draft

At this point in the season, things are starting to shape up to a clear enough picture that you can see what you a working with in the lottery. For me, there are 5 nearly clear cut starters that will be able to contribute sooner than later. They don't rank as my top 5 picks - but if I had a pick in the top 14, Id certainly look to put myself in position to get one.

1. Nerlens Noel

Why Noel? Noel is certainly very raw, but that doesn't mean you can't project him into a sure-fire starter by taking a small leap of faith. His defensive ability is already for the lights of the NBA which is something you can't say about many other 18 year old freshman centers ever. Right now he relies more on his outstanding physical gifts and motor, but for him, that goes a long way. Noel has been the only stable factor on this UK team all year long. It speaks volumes about his character and his understanding of his role. While Poythress gets benched because of lack of effort and Goodwin faces questions with his shot selection, Noel has been the rock inside for Kentucky all year long. Noel could have easily went down the wrong path at UK with no veteran leadership and varying success so far, but he's been everything you could want in a budding star. He has erased any concerns about who he thinks he is as a player and his work ethic is reportedly good. At this point, that is not only good enough to put faith in him as a NBA starter sometime soon - but also as the #1 overall pick.

2. Marcus Smart

Smart has been ranked as a top 5 pick on this site since November and has cemented his status ever since with strong performances in big games. Smart is not phased by these situations and has been the leader of Oklahoma State's team all season long. His leadership ability was raved about all summer long by coaches while he played for the U18 USA team. His natural leadership ability made him the easy choice for starting point guard and while he is still learning the position, he has shown plenty of potential in making plays for both him and his teammates. Smart also gets after it on the defensive end - making tons of plays and rebounding the ball - and Oklahoma State has gone from the 107th best team defensively last year to a top 20 team now (kenpom.com). Defense, leadership, maturity, excellent size, athleticism, and a good skillset are  a recipe for a player that wont let you down if you select him. And he's only 18 and brimming with potential.

3. Trey Burke

Trey Burke doesn't possess the amount of potential as the first two guys, but he is already a well-rounded and schooled point guard that can contribute right away. I don't expect Burke to go in the top 5 nor should he - but just like Kemba Walker, if Burke is to drop to the bottom of the top 10 he is an easy pick. Burke may end of National Player of the Year this year on top of leading one of the best team's in the country. He acts as both a scorer and playmaker for his teammates and can score in a variety of ways. Burke can push it in transition, finish at the rim, make plays in the halfcourt, and get his shot off the dribble. There simply is no weakness in his game and it is hard to see him not being a factor at the next level.

4. Ben McLemore

I was on McLemore quickly this year just like Smart. Some players you can just tell right away if they have something special to them. For McLemore, his mix of athleticism and shooting ability projects him very well to the next level. McLemore already has a good understanding of curling around screens and keeping himself squared to the basket to convert shots. The look of his jumper has drawn comparisons to Ray Allen. McLemore is also a big time finisher above the rim and with improved ball handling, his slashing game could become a factor as well. Right now, he is a dynamic shooter that actually has proven in college he can shoot - cough Brad Beal - which gives him a home in the NBA.

5. Cody Zeller

Zeller currently ranks lower than the rest of these guys on my rankings and that is mainly due to the lack of upside. But his basketball IQ and skillset make him the most NBA ready big man in this draft. And Zeller already has two brothers with NBA experience and it is hard to see him not being the best one. Zeller is known for his offensive skill in the post and this season his jumper that he has always said to have, is starting to show in games. What might be a surprise is what he can bring defensively for a team. Zeller is often criticize for his wingspan and lack of explosiveness, but most of the game of basketball is played away from the rim or with the idea of preventing a team from getting to the rim - and that is exactly what Zeller does. Zeller understands defense more than any other big man in this draft and is one of the few that can play NBA defense right away.


One more to consider: Otto Porter

2013 NBA Mock Draft

*More early entry candidates are included in this mock because it is simply a guessing game to decide who will or will not declare. Therefore, this draft appears much deeper than it will be come June. Most of these second rounders have a good chance of going late first and there are plenty of undrafted players who will end up being selected in the real draft. Enjoy!*

1. Charlotte Bobcats - FR Nerlens Noel, F/C, Kentucky
2. Cleveland Cavaliers - FR Ben McLemore, SG, Kansas
3. Washington Wizards - FR Anthony Bennett, PF, UNLV
4. Sacramento Kings - FR Shabazz Muhammad, G/F, UCLA
5. Phoenix Suns -1992 Rudy Gobert, F/C, Cholet
6. Orlando Magic - FR Marcus Smart, PG, Oklahoma State
7. New Orleans Hornets - SO Otto Porter, SF, Georgetown
8. Philadelphia 76ers - SR CJ McCollum, G, Lehigh
9. Detroit Pistons - SO Trey Burke, PG, Michigan
10. Toronto Raptors (to Oklahoma City) - FR Steven Adams, C, Pittsburgh
11. Minnesota Timberwolves - FR Glenn Robinson Jr, SF, Michigan
12. Dallas Mavericks - SO Alex Len, C, Maryland
13. Portland Trailblazers (to Charlotte) - SO Cody Zeller, F/C, Indiana
14. Los Angeles Lakers - FR Isaiah Austin, F/C, Baylor
15. Atlanta Hawks - SR Mason Plumlee, F/C, Duke
16. Milwaukee Bucks - FR Alex Poythress, F, Kentucky
17. Utah Jazz - FR Michael Carter-Williams, PG, Syracuse
18. Boston Celtics - SO Tony Mitchell, PF, North Texas
19. Houston Rockets (to Atlanta) - JR Reggie Bullock, G/F, North Carolina
20. Chicago Bulls - FR Rasheed Sulaimon, SG, Duke
21. Brooklyn Nets - SO James Michael McAdoo, PF, North Carolina
22. Golden State Warriors (to Utah) - JR Victor Oladipo, G/F, Indiana
23. Indiana Pacers - SR Jackie Carmichael, PF, Illinois State
24. New York Knicks - JR Gorgui Dieng, F/C, Louisville
25. Memphis Grizzlies (to Minnesota) - FR TJ Warren, F, North Carolina State
26. Denver Nuggets - SR Jeff Withey, C, Kansas
27. Miami Heat (to Cleveland) - 1994 Dario Saric, F, Cibona Zagreb
28. San Antonio Spurs - SR Michael Snaer, SG, Florida State
29. Los Angeles Clippers - JR Andre Roberson, F, Colorado
30. Oklahoma City Thunder - FR Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Kentucky

Round 2

1. Charlotte Bobcats (to Oklahoma City) - SO BJ Young, G, Arkansas
2. Cleveland Cavaliers - JR Phil Pressey, PG, Missouri
3. Washington Wizards - SO LeBryan Nash, SF, Oklahoma State
4. Sacramento Kings - 1993 Sergey Karasev, SF, Triumph Moscow
5. Phoenix Suns - JR Jamaal Franklin, G/F, San Diego State
6. Orlando Magic (to Cleveland) - JR Patric Young, F/C, Florida
7. New Orleans Hornets (to Philadelphia) - SO Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG, Georgia
8. Philadelphia 76ers - 1991 Nemandja Nedovic, G, Lietuvos Rytas
9. Detroit Pistons - SO Adonis Thomas, SF, Memphis
10. Toronto Raptors - FR Khem Birch, F/C, UNLV
11. Minnesota Timberwolves (to Portland) - SR Richard Howell, PF, North Carolina State
12. Dallas Mavericks - JR CJ Leslie, PF, North Carolina State
13. Portland Trailblazers (to Denver) - SO Myck Kabongo, PG, Texas
14. Los Angeles Lakers - JR Doug McDermott, F, Creighton
15. Atlanta Hawks - JR Deshaun Thomas, F, Ohio State
16. Milwaukee Bucks - SR Mike Muscala, F/C, Bucknell
17. Utah Jazz - 1992 Leo Westermann, G, Partizan
18. Boston Celtics (to Portland) - 1992 Lucas Nogueira, C, Estudiantes
19. Houston Rockets (to Atlanta) - JR Kelly Olynyk, F/C, Gonzaga
20. Chicago Bulls - SR Brandon Paul, G, Illinois
21. Brooklyn Nets (to Minnesota) - JR Russ Smith, G, Louisville
22. Golden State Warriors (to Orlando) - JR Ray McCallum, PG, Detroit
23. Indiana Pacers - JR Allen Crabbe, SG, California
24. New York Knicks (to Washington) - JR Lorenzo Brown, G, North Carolina State
25. Memphis Grizzlies - JR CJ Wilcox, G/F, Washington
26. Denver Nuggets (to Phoenix) - SR Rodney Williams, F, Minnesota
27. Miami Heat - SR Isaiah Canaan, G, Murray State
28. San Antonio Spurs - SR Ed Daniel, F/C, Murray State
29. Los Angeles Clippers - SR Ryan Kelly, PF, Duke
30. Oklahoma City Thunder (to Minnesota) - 1993 Alex Abrines, SG, Barcelona

Video: Michael Snaer's Double Double vs Auburn

Florida State has been bad this season and a 78-72 loss to Auburn last night doesn't make things any better. Ian Miller has been hurt and played ten minutes last night from injury and they need him healthy for ACC play. Without him, Michael Snaer is not only expected to lead them defensively but offensively as well.

Snaer does a lot of things well and is an intriguing prospect. His defense is already NBA caliber - possessing good length and lateral quickness, and a keen understanding of positioning.

Offensively, Snaer does a lot of things well. For the second straight year, he is a 40%+ shooter from behind the arc and 80%+ from the free throw line. He has nearly doubled his rate of getting to the line so far this year, finally putting his first step and fluidity to use. He's also explosive at the rim and is seen completing a backdoor alley-oop in the video below.

Snaer's efficiency on offense is hurt by the fact that he is being asked to do it all for Florida State. But in a smaller role, Snaer is a guy who can do a little bit of everything on both ends. From passing, rebounding (he had 12 against Auburn), getting into the lane, and lighting it up from outside - Snaer has an NBA game.

Cody Zeller vs Iowa (Video)

Cody Zeller and Indiana traveled to Iowa City for their first conference game of the year against Iowa. Conference play means that no game will be easy - and this game certainly was not for the Hoosiers. They have been less than impressive when outside of Assembly Hall thus far.

Zeller put forth a solid effort finishing with 19 points (7-12 shooting) and 10 rebounds. The little things that he does are what I like best. He isn't able to get every rebound, but will do whatever he can to get his hand on it to tip it to a teammate. And his awareness on the defensive end is top notch. Zeller doesn't have the length or athleticism as some other big men prospects, but his understanding of positioning is unmatched.

Zeller was passive at times in this game, but Indiana did a good job continuing to get the ball through him. They ran a lot of set plays and you could tell they were stressing getting him the ball coming out of dead ball situations. He does a great job in pick and roll situations, especially when he decides to slip the screen. He played with patience and was anything but a black hole on offense.

While the youngest Zeller brother is having a good season, his stock has begun to drop a bit simply because he lacks the upside of a top 5 pick. This isn't a surprise - Zeller was a placeholder at the top of mock drafts until new names emerged and earned their spots during the season.

Video Highlights of Alex Len vs Delaware State

Alex Len had a quiet game against Delaware State as Maryland had no problem dismantling the MEAC school. Len was able to get easy looks in the post, but only came away with 6 points in 17 minutes. Maryland likes to have him set down screens in order for him to establish initial position and Delaware State didn't put much effort into making it hard for Len to get position down low. Len had multiple good looks, but had a few lay-up attempts fall off of the rim.

The thing to watch in these highlights is Len's defense. You can get a better sense if you watch the complete game, but in the video below you can see a bit of his struggles. Len had four fouls, none of which prevented the opponent from still getting the bucket. He looked slow and unmotivated going after loose balls and was beaten multiple times on the offensive glass. He got a block shot, but still ended up giving up the points. And his block shot came on a play where the defender had him backed down all the way to the rim. He only recorded 2 rebounds in this game, both which fell into his lap. These are the kind of things I worry about when watching Len. Yes he has a great skillset, but the NBA needs their centers to provide toughness, defense, and rebounding.

Video Highlights of TJ Warren vs Western Michigan

Freshman forward TJ Warren has a knack for scoring the basketball and doesn't need to dominate the ball to do so. He does a great job finding holes in the middle of the defense and sneaking around the baseline to get open without the ball. Warren is one of those guys who is terrific moving without the ball - not because of his non-stop energy, but because of his awareness. Warren's skillset is perfect for his ability to get open in the mid-range area. He has quick floaters, a turnaround game, and the body strength needed to finish at the rim. All skills allow him to quickly find a weakness in the defense and then quickly shoot the ball as the defense closes in on him. Warren also runs the court well and displays great body control.

He has came off the bench in most games and has accepted him role. He has shown versatility, scoring both inside and out, while logging minutes at both forward positions. Warren is one of the smoothest scorers in the country, but doesn't get the attention he deserves because he isn't flashy with the ball. Once he gets the ball, he has already done most of the work to get himself in position to score. Its just a matter of using his array of shots and quick release to get the ball in the hoop from there. He has a really smooth stroke and can hit the three, but oddly enough is shooting below 50% from the foul line.

Top 20 Duos In College Basketball

1. Cody Zeller and Victor Oladipo - I'd consider both guys within the top 10 of canidates for the Wooden award. When put together, they form the best duo in college basketball. Oladipo has finally gotten his due, but still has avoided talks of National Player of the Year. He is one of the most efficient offensive players in the country, and of course, we all know about his defense. He defines what college basketball is all about and plays for a top 5 team. He is one of the ten best collegiate players in the nation.

2. Phil Pressey and Laurence Bowers - Without Bowers and Pressey, Missouri would be a team without an identity. With them, they are currently the 7th best team in the country. Pressey may have the best understanding of how to run a team in the country. Bowers has shown great improvement from past years and has given the Tigers that post threat they needed last year.

3. Peyton Siva and Russ Smith - Speaking of identity - for a Pitino team, its all about guard play. Smith and Siva are upperclassmen who know what Pitino wants. They have combined to force 5.3 turnovers per game with aggressive defense and are just as aggressive on offense. They are the head to Louisville's top 5 team and its a head that is nearly impossible to throw off their game.

4. Otto Porter and Greg Whittington - Perhaps a little high? Or maybe not. Porter and Whittington turn an otherwise boring Georgetown system team into a team that can be dynamic. They give them looks that no other team in the country can replicate with their length on defense and their creativeness on offense. Any time when you have two 6-8 guys that can play on the wing defensively and are your best creators on offense, you are going to be a big threat moving forward. The duo makes this Georgetown team more dynamic than past teams.

5. Isaiah Canaan and Ed Daniel - I've got to have the Murray State seniors' in the top 5 of this list because they define what this list is all about. Canaan put Murray State on the map last year and now Ed Daniel has stepped up to be a legitimate compliment to him. Canaan handles the scoring and creating, while Daniel does the little things - including setting excellent screens for the star of the team. While Canaan is their offense, Daniel is their anchor and heart on defense.  When watching the Racers, its those two and then "everyone else".

6. Deshaun Thomas and Aaron Craft - Another duo with a offense/defense pairing, this one is unique as it is the guard who provides the defense. Ohio State is deep in talent, but it is only Thomas and Craft who have the experience and clearly defined roles at this point. Craft is the leader and the defender. Thomas makes up for Craft's lack of scoring ability by being one of the most dangerous offensive threats in college basketball. Quite a complimentary pair.

7. Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway - The second best backcourt in the nation according to these rankings, this attack is spearheaded by one of the favorites to win the Wooden Award. While Russ Smith and Siva get it done with aggressive defense and transition offense, this duo is better at scoring in the halfcourt setting. But the thing about them is how well-rounded they are. They can score inside and out, in the halfcourt or transition, and look for their own shot just as much as they can create for others. The true definition of balance.

8. Marcus Smart and LeBryan Nash - We will see if Oklahoma State's thin team can handle their next two games against Gonzaga and Kansas State, but for now, they remain in the top 25. LeBryan Nash changed the direction of the Cowboys future last year by deciding to take his talents to Stillwater. This year, Smart followed suit, but he ended up changing the culture as well. Smart's leadership and playmaking for this team can't be understated. With him running things on the perimeter, Nash has moved his game more inside and accepted his role down low. Together they give OKST an identity on a team infused with role players.

9. Jamaal Franklin and Chase Tapley - We saw just how good San Diego State was this week at the Diamond Head Classic. They play super hard and bigger than their size. That is a direct result of Jamaal Franklin. Chase Tapley also helps out on the boards from the wing, but he provides SDSU with a much more consistent and stable leader to rely upon. Together, their demeanors work well. We saw Franklin struggled offensively this week and Tapley stepped up and showed he is one of the most unheralded players in the nation. His outside shooting is key with Franklin struggling from deep.

10. Nerlens Noel and Archie Goodwin - In terms of potential, this group is obviously number one. And I think they will end up being a better duo than they are ranked when the season is over. But for now, it is tough to put them any higher.

11. Mason Plumlee and Seth Curry - Duke is the number one team in the country and Plumlee is a contender for player of the year heading into ACC play. Plumlee is the standout, but Duke still embodies more of a team philosphy than most, so they finish outside of the top 10 on the list. Any of their 5 starters can step up on any given night, but Plumlee and Curry are the veteran leaders. Plumlee is a big presence inside while Curry is their most dynamic weapon at guard - for now.

12. Jackie Carmichael and Tyler Brown - This duo has been flying under the radar, just missing getting the big win against Louisville to put them on the map. They have plenty of chances coming up in the Missouri Valley Conference, including a game on January 2nd pitting McDermott vs Carmichael. You can't get a much better post matchup than that. Brown is no slouch either - he plays under control and is a great shooter who is always ready to pull the trigger. This duo may be the best inside-out threat in America.

13. Michael Carter-Williams and James Southerland - Syracuse has a lot of good players but I think MCW and Southerland give them a chance to be "really good" as a team. Carter-Williams is great at breaking down defense and Southerland is always around the perimeter to captilize on open looks. Without James, they lack a pure shooter to take advantage of MCW's abilities. And without MCW, Syracuse lacks much of all in the halfcourt offense.

14. Jeff Withey and Travis Releford - I know, Ben McLemore deserves Releford's spot. And its true. Really this Kansas doesn't belong on this list at all because they are a TEAM. But their identity as a team is tough defense and experience and this tandem defines that the most. McLemore is their most talented player and their key to advancing far in the tournament, but these vets embody Jayhawk hoops. If this was a list of trios, they would be top 3.

15. Alex Len and Dez Wells - Maryland is a team just waiting to crack the top 25 after reeling off 10 straight wins following the opening night loss to Kentucky. But they have yet to be tested since and will have to wait until ACC play to do so. Turgeon set up a weak OOC schedule not knowing that Dez Wells has been eligible and he has proven to be the missing piece. Len's improvement combined with the addition of Wells has been the equivalent of adding to big name FAs in the NBA.

16. CJ McCollum and Gabe Knutson - At 24.9 ppg and 17.4 ppg respectively, this duo is the highest scoring duo in college basketball. They probably should be ranked higher, but lack any notable wins this year. But we saw what they can do last year against Duke. McCollum gets all the credit, yet Knutson is a huge part of their success with his saavy post game and good touch from inside of 15 feet.

17. Shabazz Napier and Ryan Boatright - UConn may not be very relevent this year, but they still possess one of the most offensively potent backcourts in the nation. Both are creative, aggressive combo guards who play off the hot hand. When Napier is on, he can take over. Same for Boatright. Together, they are capable of knocking off quite a few top 25 teams.

18. Shabazz Muhammad and Jordan Adams - This is the highest scoring tandem among the BCS conferences and they both happen to be freshmen. Shabazz missed the first few games because of injury and the NCAA, and came back slowly. People questioned how the two high scoring freshman would fit together and it seems they actually mesh ok. Adams has been able to take pressure of Shabazz and allowed him to focus on scoring off offensive rebounds and hustle plays. Shabazz doesn't need to dominant the ball to score so having Adams works well. Now they just need to find a way to bring it on defense - both have looked slow and out of shape so far, but Shabazz is turning it around.

19. Allen Crabbe and Justin Cobbs - The second highest scoring duo in BCS leagues also hails from California and feautures two veteran guards. Crabbe gets the attention as a possible NBA player and does a great job of moving around off the ball. Cobbs is more of a dominator of the ball, running the pick and roll well and scoring well inside for a sub 6 footer. He lacks the potential Crabbe has, but is one of the best guards nobody talks about.

20. Sean Kilpatrick and Cashmere Wright - These two have been working on establishing themselves in the Big East for years and now are one of the better teams in the conference. They play with a lot of confidence and swagger and get after it on defense. They bring energy and toughness from the guard positions and both are more than capable of scoring as well.

Other Notable Duos from Mid/Low-Major Schools:


Tyler Haws/Brandon Davies
Nate Wolters/Jordan Dykstra
De'Mon Brooks/Jake Cohen
Devon Saddler/Jamelle Hagins
Ray McCallum/Nick Minnerath
Frantz Massenat/Damien Lee
Tyreek Duren/Roman Galloway
Khalif Wyatt/Scootie Randall

Trevor Releford's 17 points vs Texas Tech

Trevor Releford has bumped his 3-pt% from a poor 27% over his first two season to 42% to begin his junior year. If he keeps his shooting up, he has enough talent to get 2nd round looks. 

Isaiah Canaan's 18 Points vs Arkansas St (Video)

Matthew Dellavedova and the St. Mary's Offense

When talking about St. Mary's you have to start with Matthew Dellavedova and when you speak of Dellavedova, you have to talk about St. Mary's offense. Dellavedova's game revolves around the pick and roll and St. Mary's revolves around their senior point guard so naturally, the Gaels start off the majority of each offensive possession with their star getting a high screen at the top of the arc.

Dellavedova is the catalysts of the St. Mary's offense, even when he isnt putting up huge numbers, the team is always relying on him for their open looks. It all starts with him in the pick and roll where he looks to distribute first and foremost.

Dellavedova is a good passer and has nice size for a point guard, allowing him to see the whole court when working at the top of the arc. He stays under control attacking the pick and roll, rarely driving into the lane - instead attacking JUST far enough to draw the second defender.

This is where the offense starts for St. Mary's - a team with only one shot creator - Dellavedova. Dellavedova's first pass to the open man is the start of getting the opposition of balance. They can get a shot early a lot of times off his pass, but the Gaels are more patience than that. They are a team of ball movers, with no ball stoppers to be found. Dellavedova's first move to draw the defense gets them off balance and the rest of his teammates build off his momentum by keeping the other team scurrying to open men by continuing to move the ball. They take after their

When things are going good, its a simple matter of "Where's Waldo" - Brad Waldow that is, who manages to benefit from the ball movement with surprisingly open looks in the lane.

Dellavedova controls the pace of the game and also controls himself.

The offense is far from spectacular but is some kind of efficient machine. Dellavedova is able to create things out of this offense without forcing bad passes or overdribbling and he relieves his teammates from having to do that too. That is why St. Mary's rarely turns the ball over and has been that way since Dellavedova has been in charge.

Its really a recipe for winning a lot in the regular season. And it doesn't help that the one shot creator is a legitimate contender to post 50/40/90 shooting numbers. Yea, I suppose it would be good to mention his deadly shooting at this point.

Dellavedova is the magician of all of this though - he's not just a system player. He has a lot of saavy to his game and is creative in delivering passes to his teammates. He is one of the best jump passers in the nation. He has a good mid-range game, sporting a quick floater that looks more like a flick shot. He's done a ton of work to his body over the years. This season he came in looking like a workout warrior, sporting a new, ripped physique.

And his body isn't for show. He has used his new found strength to show off an advanced post game. He's been a great scorer from there, but ironically enough, its passing out of doubles teams from the post that he's struggled with.

For Dellavedova his main weakness on the offensive end is his ability to get to the lane for easy buckets. And it shows in his overall field goal percentage. He can go stretches of games without getting a lay-up and did so against Pacific and Georgia Tech to name two recent games.

Overall, Dellavedova is a great college player and has an outside shot at the NBA. Ultimately, I'd expect to see him find his way back to Australia, although his game would fit the Europe well too. 

Catching Up With Tony Mitchell

Much has been made of Tony Mitchell's slow start so far this season. Coming off a game where he only got off one shot, many people questioned how that was even possible.

I watched tonight's game, the game after his one shot performance, and he scored 18 points on 7-12 shooting. It was a solid performance for Mitchell as well as his team, who managed to hang in with St. Louis until the buzzer, losing 67-63. Mitchell had 14 first half points then had to sit out much of the second half with foul trouble. Once he was inserted back into the lineup, his teammates didn't even look to get him the ball.

Sort of perplexing. North Texas as a whole is perplexing. Heading into this game, they were shooting 26% from 3-pt range yet fared better against zone defenses.

I had two hypothesis for this - one is simple, the more inferior teams on North Texas ran zone against them in attempt to limit Mitchell. This makes plenty of sense.

The other could have to do with the amount of double teams Mitchell receives. Whenever Mitchell gets the ball in the post, he is automatically doubled - creating open looks for teammates outside the arc. So North Texas may actually get more 3-pt looks against man to man defense.

Fascinating.

More fascinating may be how first year North Texas coach Tony Benford has used Mitchell - or hasn't used him. It is tough being a coach of a lottery big man on a team of below average, shot happy guards. There is a lot of pressure to feature Mitchell, but it is something that also would help the team win.

Another thing Benford has to deal with is his center - Tony Mitchell - preferring to showcase his small forward skills to NBA scouts. Or his lack of them. You know what they say about guys trying to prove they can do something: they usually prove instead that they can't do it.

Mitchell may have another reason however of floating outside. The double teams. Mitchell can't show his post game because he is swarmed after each touch. When Mitchell parks himself in the post, you can tell it is hard for him to stay in the game mentally. Not only because of the double teams, but because of his teammates' idolization of their own offensive games.

And so is it best to park Mitchell down there? Sure he creates open looks, but he doesn't get to shoot himself. And as mentioned before, North Texas can't hit threes.

So that is what brings Mitchell out around the perimeter. Its a big conundrum and it wouldn't be a problem on a more talented team.

Mitchell faces tough defense off the ball all game and doesn't know how to get open off the ball. He gets some 3-pt shots by trailing in transition and popping on pick and rolls. He gets some putback attempts and throws down some alley-oops. And then there are the times he tries to create offense for himself - a very mixed bag.

His offensive game is somewhat like Andre Roberson's. Both are athletic freaks trying to prove themselves on the perimeter, yet have terrible footwork and decision making skills on the perimeter. They both shuffle their feet, rethink every step, and rely on their first step completely. And both of them can actually hit the 3-pt shot, although it can be ugly. The 3-pt shot gives them better driving opportunities due to strong defensive close outs.

Besides Roberson being 4 months older, Mitchell also is the better prospect because of his strength and his mid-range game potential. Mitchell's frame is much better than Roberson's and allows him to finish in contact and also work more inside. Mitchell's mid-range game actually looks good, as he is creative with his dribble and his jumpshot looks much better from 18 feet in. Mitchell has much more of an offensive mindset than Roberson and thus has more potential in the area. He can be dangerous setting up from the mid-range area with both the jumper and the drive. Mitchell can also post up, but his footwork and balance in these situations make for some ugly looking shots at time.

Mitchell's play pick up once conference play starts and his guards get to face competition more of their level. Same deal I said for Robert Covington who has struggled early. Mitchell's stock has taken a slight dip since the season has began, but he is one of the best athletes in this very weak draft. Believe it or not, he still could even have an outside shot at the #1 pick. His potential is that high.

Shabazz Muhammad vs Jamaal Franklin

In a battle against dynamic shooting guards, the elder Jamaal Franklin came out on top of the highly touted Shabazz Muhammad. Experience prevailed over youth in the game as well, as UCLA fell to San Diego State 78-69. UCLA hung with SDSU through the first half, but the Aztecs got hot from deep to bury UCLA in the second half. Franklin finished with 28 points and Shabazz had 16.

This was my second look at Franklin this year. The first time was on a boat against Syracuse's 2-3 zone which wasn't an ideal situation to scout him. Franklin struggled badly to get anything going in that game and had a lot of bad turnovers. Last night, Franklin had a much easier time against UCLA's version of the 2-3 zone, as one would expect.

Early on Franklin acted as a facilitator and did a nice job getting his teammates involved with some quality finds. His teammates didn't help him out much by converting (Franklin finished with only 3 assists), but his 1/2 A/TO ratio doesn't illustrate how he played. In fact, this was one of the best games I've seen Franklin play. He was under control for the most part and played with a lot of fire.

He got hot at the end of the 1st half from 3 and ended up looking for his own shot more in the second half. He chucked quite a few 3s in the final 20 minutes, but nothing out of his role. SDSU needs him to be an aggressive scorer. Franklin cooled off quickly from 3 though, and finished 3-10 from deep on the night.

The rest of Franklin's game consisted of him taking advantage of defenders closing out on him for the 3 and him driving past them. Franklin doesn't have the surest handles in traffic and turns it over a fair amount. He's a guy who could benefit from learning to slow his game down, but probably won't ever get there. He definitely has the capabilities to make spectacular plays throughout the game.

Franklin could be a good player at the next level if he isn't asked to do too much. He is a great athlete, can shoot the ball, create his shot a bit, and finish in transition. He also has good court vision but can be careless passing the ball.

He's a guy who could give a coach headaches, but from all reports, Coach Fisher loves coaching him and raves about his work ethic. His competitiveness and intensity was certainly on display last night and he took on the challenge of defending Shabazz Muhammad. Franklin is a guy who carries a chip on his shoulder and you could tell he wanted to prove that he is the better player.

For one night, he was.

Shabazz struggled for most of the game, despite finishing with 16 points. Jamaal Franklin has a problem with always driving left and its a similarity Shabazz shares as well. Shabazz has had to work very hard for his points this year. He's been forced to run the court in transition and try to muscle shots up in the post instead of creating his offense from the halfcourt on the perimeter.

Part of this is because he is rushing things. Another part is him trying to be too perfect. A bigger part may be that Shabazz just isn't that skilled. The only thing Shabazz has proven to do very well at this point is bully smaller guards.

When you have the athletic ability that Shabazz has, you can slow the game down and force players to play at your pace. You don't need to make hasty decisions as soon as the ball to catch the defense out of position. Shabazz needs to take his time more, measure the defense up in triple threat position, and plan how to attack. He should be able to drive by defenders in isolation sets. If he can't, then it is time to re-evaluate his pro potential.

We aren't at that point yet.

Shabazz looked very average through most of the game, but in the final couple of minutes he finally started to attack from the perimeter. He hit a jumper coming off a screen. He got all the way to the basket. He broke a defender down for a nice floater. That floater is something that he showed off multiple times in the game. He has good touch on it and gets it off quickly - almost flicking it at the basket.

Defensively, Shabazz is still struggling. He looks off balance in his defense stance and was beaten lateral on a few occasions.

Player to Monitor

There was a freshman point forward in this game who has potential to be a first rounder and his name isn't Kyle Anderson. While Anderson has looked like a 4 year player this whole season - looking even slower than advertised and not making enough plays to make up for it - Winston Shepard has looked like a solid prospect.

Shepard can cover multiple positions well (unlike Anderson who can't cover any) and really played great defense last night. He also got the offense into some sets and looked like a potential leader down the road. I like how he can get into the lane and maintain control. He can dribble it in the mid-range area where his height allows him to see over bigs to make easy passes to teammates or take a short jumper himself. Shepard needs his production to come along and he should be in school for at least another year or two, but in my opinion, he's a better prospect than Anderson.

Senior Rankings (1-5) - Withey, McCollom, Plumlee, Covington, and Wolters

1. CJ McCollom - McCollom may be the best scorer in the country and has already had 3 30+ point games this season; the most in Division 1. He has the ability to take over games with his scoring and lead his team to victory over just about any team in the country. My worries with him are his position and his reliance on long 2-pters. He has the highest potential amongst the seniors and the best chance of making me look silly if I don't rank him #1.

2. Jeff Withey - The second best senior? It sounds weird, but Withey has an elite ability to affect games on the defensive end that should make him a good player in the pros. He moves so fluidly for a 7 footer and gets off the court quickly. He has been Kansas's best player so far, even becoming more of a threat on offense. Kansas can't get much penetration so Withey has been a key factor on offense - being relied upon as a part of their inside/out game. He has shown quick moves in the post and has been more aggressive this season. Withey isn't the most talented senior, but he might be the surest bet to walk onto a NBA team and contribute right away.

3. Mason Plumlee - There is part of me that wants to rank Plumlee lower, but its tough with the season he is having. He very well could be National Player of the Year this season and his stock should start soaring. It won't surprise me if he ends up in the lottery. I don't want to split hairs though with his ranking - my main point is if I were a GM, I'd spend my top 20 pick somewhere else. I'd much rather take Jeff Withey outside the top 20 then spend a top 20 pick on Mason. Nothing against him, he's having a great season, I just question how it all translates to the next level. His offense is a lot of face up looks, but he can't shoot. He relies on the drive, but its going to be hard to keep NBA defenses honest if he can't consistent hit the 15 footer. And his post game is still based on his athleticism. And he doesn't even establish deep post position enough to take advantage of it.

Defensively, he's not an imposing threat as an anchor in the middle, yet doesn't have great lateral quickness to be a good defender against power forwards. He's kind of a tweener in a weird way. The positive thing about Plumlee this season is his energy and rebounding - both which will translate into the NBA. That will be how he hangs his hat in the league - as a energy player off the bench.

4. Robert Covington - Ive written about him twice and summed up his game well here. I watched him put up a bad stat line against Minnesota this year, but it wasn't his fault. Covington offers a great amount of intrigue for a senior prospect. He has starter upside, but could also fail to find a role.

5. Nate Wolters - I've also covered Wolters' game twice - here and here. His season so far has done nothing but build his legend and improve his stock. Right now, he has the best numbers statistically among all PG prospects when you look at all the important requirements - points, assists, 2-pt%, 3-pt%, FTA, FT%, rebounds, turnovers, and steals. Every other top point guard prospect has a flaw in one of these areas - Wolters does not. Of course there are more to projecting players than statistics, but stats are a part of the equation. And make no doubt, Wolters fares well on the eye test as well. Because of his weak schedule, each game against legit competition is important, and Wolters has a big game December 4th against Minnesota that should be fun.

All-American Doug McDermott

After playing alongside Harrison Barnes in high school, Doug McDermott is used to being overlooked. He was a solid big man alongside Barnes that did the little things. His play was admired, but not celebrated. His teammate Barnes was being compared to Kobe Bryant. Nobody was comparing McDermott to Larry Bird.

Barnes left North Carolina to be a lottery pick over the summer and now finally McDermott has a chance for the spotlight. He went into this season as the top returning scorer in college basketball and one of the favorites to win National Player of the Year. His team is no longer underlooked either - they look to be a legitimate top 15, maybe even top 10 team.

Now McDermott has expectations. His game will be placed under a microscope. All of this, yet Im not sure fans understand what his game is all about.

McDermott is an outstanding shooter, hitting over 48% from deep last year. But that shouldn't define his game. If anything, the mystique of his shooting ability may be overrated, which in turn underrates what all he brings to the table.

McDermott only made 1.5 3-pt shots per game last year. He's far from a product of his father's system. He's far from a one trick pony that runs around screens all day to get him open looks. He's not one of those leading NCAA scorers playing on a high possession team or a team that doesn't win. He doesn't take bad shots and he isn't even the focus of the offense. 

His dad isn't the coach of Grinnell College and McDermott isn't Jack Taylor. McDermott is a basketball player and one of the best in the country.

All in all, McDermott is different from your average NCAA scoring leader.

Despite his preseason accolades, its time for him to get credit for all he does. None of it is circumstantial - he is legitimately one of the best players in the country. He is. I'm not sure people really believe that when they place him on All-American teams.

First of all, McDermott is a heck of a post player. That is his bread and butter in the college game. Around 3 shots per game come from deep, but plenty more come from inside the paint (nearly 3 quarters). McDermott is a relentless worker in the post, never allowing the opponent to catch him relaxed and at mercy of being pushed around. McDermott is the aggressor and takes it to the opponent before they can take it to him. He sprints down the court as if there is a sale on prime real estate near the rim each and every time.

McDermott gets to the line and is doing his best job at it this year. He's getting to the line nearly 7 times this year in only 29 minutes. He does an excellent job drawing contact and does an even better job at finishing through it. He displays great body control and is able to use his body to get his short shots at the rim off against longer defenders. He absorbs the contact, shows great concentration on the rim, and has great touch with either hand. The biggest thing may be his competitiveness - he is not going to be denied getting the rim.

McDermott can score through the Hansbrough method, but also has great footwork in the paint and a high skill level. Consistently finishing up and unders, hook shots, and occasionally a turnaround jumper, McDermott is one of the most skilled post players in the country. And one of the most true.

All this talk about stretch forwards and McDermott's transition to the SF in the pros, yet McDermott is a pure power forward at Creighton. Its a huge part of his game. He relishes the contact and the physicality inside. He rebounds well despite his 6-8 wingspan and his shortcomings athletically. His feel for the power forward position is outstanding and would be tough to take away at the next level.

He shows great feel in the paint without the ball - not just with his constant work to get open in the post, but coming around screens and finding the soft area of the defense. His savvy knowledge of how to get open combined with his constant fight to get open equates to him getting good looks. Simple really. 

Creighton's offense is one of the best in the country and very fun to watch. In a lot of ways, McDermott is just another player. He almost looks like a role player with the way he has to scrap on offense. He doesn't have a large amount of plays for him and he scraps at the hoop. He crashes the offensive glass, runs the court in transition, really, he does just about everything to get the ball in the hoop. There is a lot that goes into McDermott scoring 23 points per game and the biggest thing is hustle. I'd say he gets half of his points off hustle, but then again, his scoring ability is testament to his motor. 

Getting through a McDermott article without touching much on his shooting is actually quite easy. Its not his game. He shot over 60% from the field last year. That is truly remarkable. There is so much about McDermott's game you are missing out on if you just assume he is a shooter. 

And there will be so much about his game in the pros that you will miss out on if you treat him just as a spot up threat. 

Herein lies the hard part - what to make of McDermott's pro potential.

And with that, I'm out. Somethings are just more fun to watch unfold.