Examining The Power Forward Class (Sans Anthony Bennett and Cody Zeller)

In today's NBA, the power forward role has grown to be the most diverse position in the NBA. There are still some throwback post up guys, but there are plenty of more athletic combo forwards flying up and down in transition. You also have the energy guys, the big bodied rebounders, the stretch forwards, defensive specialist, and guys that contribute a little from each of the group. Because of the wide variety of power forwards, it can be hard to rank them. Different teams prefer different things based on style of play, need, and if they are ready to win right away.

In my opinion, ranking these players may not be the best way to do things. I feel it will be easier to divide them in groups and break them down that way and allowing the reader to decide which power forward would fit best for their teams needs.

At the top, there are two clear lottery talents that definitely lead the way in Anthony Bennett and Cody Zeller. I've covered both extensively already and feel that the gap between Bennett and Zeller is a lot smaller than what it is perceived by others. Kelly Olynyk is also in this group, although he isn't a lock for the lottery like Bennett and Zeller are. He could go there, but his floor certainly looks like the mid to late first round. Either way, Id like to use this platform to talk about the other power forwards in this draft who don't have much first round buzz.

*Names in italics represent a player having at least a 50/50 shot at getting drafted.*

The Bruisers

Richard Howell 
Trevor Mbakwe 
Jack Cooley
Reginald Buckner

These are the type of guys who use their physical strength to their advantage. They aren't the most skilled players, but they rebound the ball with great efficiency. There has been a history of these guys getting undervalued, but the league is steering away from the more with the evolution of the more perimeter oriented forwards. There are plenty of these guys spread throughout Europe and the D-League. Without much of an upside, it begs the question if they are even worth a second round pick given that you can pick up a more experienced one on the market somewhere. These are guys like Darnell Jackson, Josh Powell, Jeff Adrien, DJ White, Rick Jackson, and Richard Hendrix.

In my personal opinion, Richard Howell is the best of the bruisers this year. His biggest competition is Trevor Mbakwe, but Howell didn't disappear from games and his motor never stopped running. Thats what you look for in a bruiser. Howell is younger, more durable, more skilled, and doesn't have the character concerns Mbakwe has. Mbakwe though, is the bigger physical presence and has shown he can be a terror to stop at times.

The Stretch Fours

Erik Murphy
Ryan Kelly
Kenny Kadji
Grant Jerrett
Brock Motum
Christian Watford

The stretch four has came along as teams have looked to spread the court more. These guys are asked to knock down shots from behind the arc consistently, but help out in other areas enough so they are a liability. Certain teams use them more than others and good defensive systems help hide their weaknesses. They also generally need to play next to a rim protector and/or big time rebounder. Like with the bruisers, there are guys in the D-League and overseas that can perhaps do the job just as good if not better, while possessing more experience. These are guys like Maarty Leunen, Justin Harper, Rob Kurz, and Craig Brackins.

Of the guys on the list, I give Murphy the edge over Ryan Kelly because he's a better rebound and more of a fluid athlete. I also think you can make a very good argument that Murphy is the best shooter of the group as well. Along with those two, Grant Jerrett could be worth a draft pick although he is a couple of years away. Why waste a pick on a regular old stretch forward who can't contribute right away when you can sign a guy like Harper or Brackins for the minimum contract out of the D-League? Its a question to ponder when selecting in the second round.

*I covered Deshaun Thomas and Robert Covington with the small forward group, but both could also spend some time playing stretch forward in the league.

The Raw Athlete

CJ Leslie (Lacks BBIQ, strength, motor/consistency)
Tony Mitchell (Lacks motor, subpar production vs low-majors)
Amath M'Baye (Lacks skillset, position)
Norvel Pelle (Lacks skillset, experience, strength, BBIQ)
Deshawn Painter (Nondescript PF, lacks production for mid-major, strength, post game)

These are guys that possess the NBA level length and athleticism to make scouts drool, but for one reason or another, just aren't as good of players as their athleticism suggests. Whether it is energy, IQ, strength, offensive skills, or position - there is something missing that keeps these guys from being a lottery pick. Lots of teams draft these guys looking for a defensive stopper, but not all of them have that mentality to own that role. The intrigue of these guys comes from the perceived upside. Among the plethora of guys that fit this mold that are currently without a NBA contract are: Shawn James, Willie Reed, Stephane Lasme, and Chris Wright (Dayton).

Of these guys, Tony Mitchell has the best chance to make an impact in the NBA. He played in a bad situation that arguably effected his performance and could turn it on in the right situation in the NBA. He's a better gamble than CJ Leslie who has proved time and time again that he doesn't have the energy or IQ to be effective at the next level. Mitchell has more potential defensively than any other power forward in this draft.

The Skilled Big (Back to the Basket)

Brandon Davies
Jackie Carmichael

This is kind of your throw back power forward, the type that actually showed off a post game in college basketball. These aren't guys who are just bangers inside or undersized forwards, these guys have solid size and a legitimate post game to go to. In today's NBA, their games don't directly translate unless they are dominant with their back to the basket, but their skillset can be valuable on the right team. These guys usually come from college teams that featured them on offense and have a good feel for the game. Guys like Lawrence Roberts, Draymond Green, and Ryan Gomes all were this type of player in college.

For these guys to succeed at the next level, they have to be able to transform to bigger threats facing up. Guys like Gomes and Green have been able to translate their saavyness in the post to other parts of their games. Brandon Davies has already shown the same ability at Portsmouth and Carmichael also has shown the ability to pick and pop.

Undersized Energy Guys

Andre Roberson
Arsalan Kazemi
Ed Daniel
DJ Stephens
Taylor Smith
Elias Harris

There is some overlap with the bruisers in the sense that they earn their money through rebounding, energy, and defense. The difference is these guys are usually shorter and less bulky, while possessing more versatility on the defensive end. They can get up and down the court, move very well laterally on defense, and rebound the ball. These guys also generally lack much offensive skill at all, generating most of their offense off fastbreaks, cuts, and offensive rebounders. These are guys like Quincy Acy, Taylor Griffin, Demarre Carroll, and plenty more.

Andre Roberson and Arsalan Kazemi have the best chance at getting drafted as they have been two of the best rebounders in college basketball this season. They also both have experience playing the small forward spot. While neither have shown the offensive skills to play SF, they both have shown the versatility to make you believe they can cover both forward spots on defense.

Faceup PFs

Mike Muscala
Kelly Olynyk
Romero Osby
Laurence Bowers
Keith Clanton
Mouphtaou Yarou
Dante Taylor
Jared Berggren

This is a group with more diversity than others as you have some guys on the list that are closer to combo forwards while the top guys have legit big man size. Some of these guys are considered faceup fours because they don't have the range to be a stretch forward or any other noticeable attribute to fit any of the other categories. For most of these guys, they are pretty nondescript as players with the thought of playing in the NBA as a long shot. There are countless amounts of these types that have flirted with being drafted.

For guys like Muscala and Olynyk however, they are on this list because along with shooting from the outside, they can also take defenders off the dribble or work in the most. Unlike the other ones who aren't stretch forwards because they lack range, these two aren't stretch forwards because they can offer teams more than simply shooting from beyond the arc. And since the faceup PF is the most common among all the PFs in today's NBA, Muscala and Olynyk both already have their role carved out for them. Their transition to the NBA is a lot easier to see than a lot of guys in other groups, which is why both of them could potentially go in the first round.

Summary:

Overall, none of these guys look like potential stars and few will end up as starters. But there is value in each of the draftable players that a coach can make use of if he understands what they bring to the table. In today's game, a starting power forward is generally a guy that you can put in multiple categories from above. Whether it is a bruising power forward that plays with a relentless amount of energy (Faried, Millsap), a skilled big with a faceup game (David West), a bruising rebounder who can stretch the floor (Kevin Love), an athlete with tenacious energy (Kevin Garnett, Josh Smith), a skilled big with a bruising body (Al Jefferson), or an athletic forward with a faceup game (Thaddeous Young). Lots of these guys could be thrown into even more of the categories and that is what makes them special players.

In this draft (excluding Zeller and Bennett), maybe there are some players that are able to bring multiple things to the table and become starters. Muscala and Olynyk could both develop into even better shooters and become even more deadly with added NBA 3-pt range. Tony Mitchell could be a Josh Smith-type if he adds the necessary energy to his game. Richard Howell already is a bruiser with a relentless motor, but does he do anything else at a NBA level? Jackie Carmichael is certainly a skilled post player and could evolve to a nice do-it-all type of player ala David West? These are the guys that have the potential to break out be at least key rotational guys, if not good starters.

Mid-Majors Shine Together

As a draft blogger, you grow attached to certain teams. Of course, you watch the same big schools that everyone else does. The Blue Devils, Kentucky, and the Jayhawks. But you also watch the same small schools over and over again and find yourself getting to know not only their star player, but the rest of the team as well. Not only do you want to see these schools make the NCAA tournament in order to evaluate them on a bigger stage, but also because you start to become a fan of the school. For most small schools with NBA prospects, this is a rare opportunity for exposure and it is fun to be along for the ride with them.

Among the teams that I have found myself watching over and over again this year are North Texas, South Dakota State, Murray State, Detroit, Bucknell, Illinois State, Creighton, and Lehigh. There are other schools as well - Long Beach State and James Ennis, Davidson, Drexel, and Tennessee State.

Tonight, quite a few of the prominent mid/low-major schools were in action. North Texas played Troy and got their first conference win after starting off 0-2. Now, Troy is the worst team in the Sun Belt so it is no reason to get excited for the simple fact that they got the victory. But Tony Mitchell had his best game of the season - scoring 29 points and adding 15 rebounds. Mitchell is capable of these performances against any Sun Belt team, but it is more impressive how he did it. He was the aggressive Tony Mitchell we've been waiting to see all season. He got to the line 12 times, blocked 4 shots, and finally took advantage of easy points in transition by running the court. North Texas's offense had a sense of rhythm to it that has been rare this season. Granted it was Troy, but this is a good blueprint for them to follow for the rest of the season.

The attitude of North Texas fans towards Mitchell is a mixed bag, with a lot of fans disappointed in his effort so far this season. He's not the typical low-major star where he is worshiped on campus. He has his fair share of detractors.

Out in South Dakota, however, they live and breath Jackrabbits basketball because of Nate Wolters. Wolters has been a major part of the program for 4 seasons and is looking to get his team back into the NCAA tournament for the second straight season. They improved to 2-1 in the Summit League with their blowout victory over UMKC tonight (nicknamed the Kangaroos). Wolters was a big part of it - scoring 23 points and also providing 7 helpers. He didn't take over the game in a dominating sense. But he did control the game and its pace. The game moves slower for him than the rest of the players and he does a good job manipulating angles to get inside and show off his floater game. He also made a series of nice passes and delivered them in crafty ways. Now, I've been holding off on comparing him to any NBA player but I've had a guy in mind the entire time - Jeremy Lin. I've been hesitant to say it because of all the other things that are associated with Lin.

But if you look back at Lin at Harvard, you will see the similarities. Neither was a great shooter, but both were excellent in the pick and roll game because of their ability to play at their own pace. They are average athletes, attackers, have good touch inside, play with confidence, struggle defensively, and have similar slow release jumpshots. Lin was never looked at as much of a NBA player but obviously put in a lot of work between college and the Knicks to get to where he is now. Wolters is no stranger to work and has Lin's roadmap to the NBA to follow.

Also in action was Detroit who handled Milwaukee to advance to 1-0 in Horizon League play. Ray McCallum had a modest 13 points, but also helped out with 7 rebounds and 6 assists. McCallum is viewed as a second rounder at best on DraftExpress, but I see him as a very good backup point guard that is capable of starting for some teams - a less crafty Eric Maynor type. I highlighted McCallum's notable plays from tonight in the video below. I must say, he hasn't shown a lot of versatility in his game for much of this season. He's settling for 3s while being very good out in transition. We know he is capable of other things though, and has been impressive at times - such as the 2nd half against Syracuse.

In other action, Long Beach State lost a tough one to Cal Poly 79-73. Both teams look like contenders to win the Big West's automatic bid, but I'm rooting for LBSU in order to see Ennis in at least one more high profile game. He had 22 points and 5 blocks tonight.

Tennessee State advanced to 2-0 in the Ohio Valley Conference, despite Patrick Miller and Robert Covington being out. Covington has been out for both wins and figures to miss 4 to 6 more weeks after his recent knee surgery. Tennessee State didn't look like a good team in non-conference play, so their start is a bit surprising. Although, this is the OVC.

Still, Tennessee State will need to win their conference tournament and they will have a tough time upsetting Murray State. The Racers held off TSU in last year's championship game and the talent gap between the two teams has widened. Murray State may be more dangerous than last year's team with even more experience and the emergence of Ed Daniel. They picked up their first OVC win tonight against Tennessee-Martin.

Tony Mitchell Begins Sun Belt Play After Quiet OOC

Tony Mitchell and North Texas went up against the class of the Sun Belt, Western Kentucky, in a rematch against last year's Sun Belt Championship game. Mitchell has a strong history against WKU, having scored a combined 39 points on only 6 missed shots, in his two games against the Hilltoppers last season. This game did not go as well for Mitchell.

North Texas got down early in the first half and trailed at halftime 37-26. Mitchell and North Texas rallied to begin the 2nd half and brought the game within a bucket before Mitchell picked up his fourth foul with 10:17 remaining. The Mean Green didn't fold with their star on the bench. Mitchell didn't return until the 4:29 mark and when he did, it was still a one possession game. Down the stretch, North Texas was unable to make any shots - the sole field goal coming on a Mitchell 3-pter. But Mitchell was hardly involved in the offense all game.

Mitchell finished with 7 points as Western Kentucky devised a gameplan to stop him. They fronted him in the post and used a sagging zone defense to deny post entry passes. As I discussed before, it is difficult to run an offense through Mitchell when he is the center of attention because he isn't a good passer. He turned the ball over twice on forced passes tonight. So while you'd like to see Mitchell more involved in the offense, its hard given his skillset. He lacks any post moves, is uncomfortable on the perimeter, and struggles to make plays for his teammates. Mitchell scored his 7 points on that 3-pter, a 15 foot jumper, and a putback dunk. He doesn't shoot the ball like the 40% 3-pt shooter he was last year, lacking range, but his midrange jumper has potential.

Defensively is where Mitchell makes his greatest impact for the Mean Green. He is a strong post defender who uses his length and body to force tough shots in one on one defense. He does a good job trying not to foul - keeping his arms straight up and down - despite the 4 fouls he collected tonight (one was a questionable charge foul, and a few were due to being late rotating). Mitchell is also a terrific weakside shot blocker. And while he lacks the motor of an elite rebounder, he is able to pull down rebounds in traffic that few college athletes can.

His hustle is still questionable. Mitchell is always late into the frame getting back on both offense and defense. He has little sense of urgency in that regard. He did show some positive effort closing out on shooters, however.

With Mitchell, I've been waiting to see more - something to get really excited about. I expected him to be much improved in his first full year, but he's still the same player from a year ago. The new coaching isn't helping him. He hasn't shown any new skills. His shooting doesn't hold much promise even though he is gravitating outside even more for perimeter jumpers. If Mitchell dedicates himself to the post, he can be a great defender at the power forward position and learn the necessary post moves, but it is up to him which direction he wants to go.

Catching Up With Tony Mitchell

Much has been made of Tony Mitchell's slow start so far this season. Coming off a game where he only got off one shot, many people questioned how that was even possible.

I watched tonight's game, the game after his one shot performance, and he scored 18 points on 7-12 shooting. It was a solid performance for Mitchell as well as his team, who managed to hang in with St. Louis until the buzzer, losing 67-63. Mitchell had 14 first half points then had to sit out much of the second half with foul trouble. Once he was inserted back into the lineup, his teammates didn't even look to get him the ball.

Sort of perplexing. North Texas as a whole is perplexing. Heading into this game, they were shooting 26% from 3-pt range yet fared better against zone defenses.

I had two hypothesis for this - one is simple, the more inferior teams on North Texas ran zone against them in attempt to limit Mitchell. This makes plenty of sense.

The other could have to do with the amount of double teams Mitchell receives. Whenever Mitchell gets the ball in the post, he is automatically doubled - creating open looks for teammates outside the arc. So North Texas may actually get more 3-pt looks against man to man defense.

Fascinating.

More fascinating may be how first year North Texas coach Tony Benford has used Mitchell - or hasn't used him. It is tough being a coach of a lottery big man on a team of below average, shot happy guards. There is a lot of pressure to feature Mitchell, but it is something that also would help the team win.

Another thing Benford has to deal with is his center - Tony Mitchell - preferring to showcase his small forward skills to NBA scouts. Or his lack of them. You know what they say about guys trying to prove they can do something: they usually prove instead that they can't do it.

Mitchell may have another reason however of floating outside. The double teams. Mitchell can't show his post game because he is swarmed after each touch. When Mitchell parks himself in the post, you can tell it is hard for him to stay in the game mentally. Not only because of the double teams, but because of his teammates' idolization of their own offensive games.

And so is it best to park Mitchell down there? Sure he creates open looks, but he doesn't get to shoot himself. And as mentioned before, North Texas can't hit threes.

So that is what brings Mitchell out around the perimeter. Its a big conundrum and it wouldn't be a problem on a more talented team.

Mitchell faces tough defense off the ball all game and doesn't know how to get open off the ball. He gets some 3-pt shots by trailing in transition and popping on pick and rolls. He gets some putback attempts and throws down some alley-oops. And then there are the times he tries to create offense for himself - a very mixed bag.

His offensive game is somewhat like Andre Roberson's. Both are athletic freaks trying to prove themselves on the perimeter, yet have terrible footwork and decision making skills on the perimeter. They both shuffle their feet, rethink every step, and rely on their first step completely. And both of them can actually hit the 3-pt shot, although it can be ugly. The 3-pt shot gives them better driving opportunities due to strong defensive close outs.

Besides Roberson being 4 months older, Mitchell also is the better prospect because of his strength and his mid-range game potential. Mitchell's frame is much better than Roberson's and allows him to finish in contact and also work more inside. Mitchell's mid-range game actually looks good, as he is creative with his dribble and his jumpshot looks much better from 18 feet in. Mitchell has much more of an offensive mindset than Roberson and thus has more potential in the area. He can be dangerous setting up from the mid-range area with both the jumper and the drive. Mitchell can also post up, but his footwork and balance in these situations make for some ugly looking shots at time.

Mitchell's play pick up once conference play starts and his guards get to face competition more of their level. Same deal I said for Robert Covington who has struggled early. Mitchell's stock has taken a slight dip since the season has began, but he is one of the best athletes in this very weak draft. Believe it or not, he still could even have an outside shot at the #1 pick. His potential is that high.