2013 Small Forwards Prospects By the Numbers

A week ago, we took a loot at the point guard prospects by the numbers. Now we will see how the small forward prospects grade out based off the numbers provided by hoop-data.com. I excluded Otto Porter from this study as I view him as the best small forward prospect by a considerable margin.

*For Glen Rice Jr, I used his data from his previous year at Georgia Tech.

% of Shots at the Rim

Carrick Felix - 43%

James Ennis - 35%

Solomon Hill - 27%

Robert Covington - 25%

Shabazz Muhammad - 24%

Glen Rice Jr - 21%

Deshaun Thomas - 20%

Adonis Thomas - 18%

FG% at the Rim

Glen Rice Jr - 76%

Deshaun Thomas - 74%

James Ennis - 72%

Carrick Felix - 71%

Shabazz Muhammad - 65%

Robert Covington - 64%

Solomon Hill - 63%

Adonis Thomas - 62%

% Assisted at the Rim

Adonis Thomas - 58%

Shabazz Muhammad - 58%

Carrick Felix - 56%

Deshaun Thomas - 48%

Robert Covington - 44%

James Ennis - 41%

Glen Rice Jr - 34%

Solomon Hill - 14%

% Shots 2-pt Jumpers

Adonis Thomas - 59%

Shabazz Muhammad - 53%

Deshaun Thomas - 45%

Robert Covington - 40%

Glen Rice Jr - 37%

Solomon Hill - 31%

James Ennis - 24%

Carrick Felix - 19%

FG% 2pt Jumpers

Solomon Hill - 40%

Glen Rice Jr - 40%

Adonis Thomas - 39%

Deshaun Thomas - 39%

Shabazz Muhammad - 37%

Carrick Felix - 34%

James Ennis - 31%

Robert Covington - 25%

% 2-pt Jumpers Assisted

Adonis Thomas - 54%
Shabazz Muhammad - 47%
Deshaun Thomas - 43%
Robert Covington - 41%
Carrick Felix - 32%
Solomon Hill - 23%
Glen Rice Jr - 17%

James Ennis - 14%

% of 3-pt Shots

Solomon Hill - 42%
Glen Rice Jr - 42%
James Ennis - 41%
Robert Covington - 38%
Carrick Felix - 37%
Deshaun Thomas - 35%
Adonis Thomas - 24%
Shabazz Muhammad - 23%

3-pt FG%

Solomon Hill - 39%
Carrick Felix - 38%
Robert Covington - 38%
Shabazz Muhammad - 38%
Deshaun Thomas - 35%
Glen Rice Jr - 34%
James Ennis - 33%
Adonis Thomas - 29%

% of 3-pt Shots Assisted

Shabazz Muhammad - 100%
Carrick Felix - 96%
Deshaun Thomas - 96%
Adonis Thomas - 92%
Robert Covington - 87%
Solomon Hill - 82%
James Ennis - 68%
Glen Rice Jr - 68%

Observations

James Ennis - James Ennis stands out in this group as a finisher which comes to no surprise. He's the best athlete among the 8 prospects and his team pushed the ball with every chance they could get. You can tell that his team lacked any kind of halfcourt structure on offense which forced Ennis to create more than he should have to. Even though Ennis isn't a good ball handler, he was forced to create a large amount of his jumpshots. He does have a quick step back jumper move, but that isnt his game. Playing in a halfcourt setting in the NBA will be a big adjustment for him. He doesn't have a mid-range game and relies on circus shots in the lane. He will have to improve his jumper. He hit 3s at a good rate but his release has to get quicker.

Carrick Felix - Felix is the most similar to Ennis and both of their strengths are more on the defensive end. Felix played in a much more structured offense however, which complimented his strengths well. He didn't have to create at all and while he also lacks a middle game, he wasn't put in a situation where he had to score off the dribble. Like Ennis, he is a real solid finisher at the rim. He has also turned himself into a good spot up 3-pt shooter. I view Ennis as a better prospect than Felix because of his athletic edge and added playmaking ability.

Solomon Hill - Hill is one of the worst finishers at the rim in the group, but makes up for it with his polished mid-range game. He has the best floor game of the group and has the most versatile offensive attack. He doesn't have to get all the way to the rim to score. He also tested out as the best shooter in the group by leading in both 2-pt% and 3-pt% while taking a higher volume of 3s than anyone. He's a good spot up shooter but also can get his shot off the dribble.

Glen Rice Jr - The more you look at Glen Rice Jr, the more you see how much the situation at Georgia Tech prevented him from showing his true potential. Rice Jr had to create almost all his shots at Georgia Tech as he was near the bottom in assisted shots in all 3 categories. He was also the best finisher at the rim and in the mid-range area, despite not having the advantage of getting any easy baskets. The one area Rice Jr doesn't show well here is 3-pt shooting, but he might actually be the best shooter out of the 8. He proved this year in the D-League that he has no problem with the NBA 3-pt line.

Shabazz Muhammad - There is a big concern with Shabazz's ability to get to the rim based off these numbers. He was in the bottom half in terms of % of shots at the rim while receiving more assisted plays at the rim than anyone. Considering Shabazz also scored a lot of offensive rebounds, the numbers prove the Muhammad was unable to put the ball on the floor and get all the way to the rim at UCLA. He also seemed incapable of creating room for his jump shots. All of his 3-pt makes were assisted and he trailed only Adonis Thomas in most 2-pt jumpers assisted. His mid-range game, however, does show promise.

Deshaun Thomas - Thomas didn't really standout in any one category. We know he can shoot the ball, but he didn't shoot it at an exceptional clip. And there is a big concern with his ability to get shots off at the next level. A lot of his shots were assisted and he doesn't really have any reliable moves to get his shot up. As a small forward at the next level, he will struggle to shoot over longer defenders due to his lack of quickness and height. He did convert well at the rim in limited attempts, but that isnt his game.

Adonis Thomas - Thomas' numbers at the rim couldn't be any more. Despite shooting less at the rim than anyone and having the highest percentage of his shots assisted, Thomas still was last in converting at the rim. Thats a red flag and very puzzling for someone with his size and athleticism. These numbers scream lack of aggression. He did fair well in the mid-range area, which passes the eye test when watching him as well. Thomas will also need to improve his range as he shot worse from 3 this year than anyone.

Robert Covington - For a guy his size and playing against the competition he did, Covington really didn't show as well at the rim as you'd like to see. More concerning was his FG% on 2-pt jumpers since he projects to be a jump shooter at the next level. He ranked last in that area by a fair margin. Tennessee State needed a guy who could create shots this season and he proved that he struggled in that area. Still, Covington brings a nice combination of athleticism and outside shooting that could eventually get him into the NBA.

After watching more film on each of these prospects and taking a look at them by the numbers, here are my personal revised rankings:

1. Glen Rice Jr (late lottery to mid-first round)
2. Shabazz Muhammad (mid-first round)
3. Solomon Hill (early second round)
4. Adonis Thomas (early second round)
5. James Ennis (second round)
6. Deshaun Thomas (second round)
7. Carrick Felix (second round to undrafted)
8. Robert Covington (second round to undrafted)

Others worth noting: James Southerland, Rodney Williams, Will Clyburn

Scouting Report: Carrick Felix

Carrick Felix has taken an interesting path to get to this point in his career. He was an under the radar prospect in high school, ended up playing JUCO ball alongside Pierre Jackson, and was once committed to play at Duke following that. Felix ultimately ended up at Arizona State (where he has played the last 3 years) and didn't emerge onto the draft radar until this season at the age of 22 (he will be 23 when the 2013-14 NBA season begins).

Anytime a player struggled to make a big impact until his senior season, there will be red flags to answer. For Felix, he has certainly matured over the years. The birth of his daughter this past July forced him to mature and gave him a new focus on the game of basketball. During this past year, Felix also earned his master's degree in Liberal Studies.

But it just wasn't a new found focus on the game that helped him. Arizona State and coach Herb Sendek opened up their offense into a more pro-oriented system this year when he added a couple of former NBA coaches to his staff. Part of the reason for the change of system was to take advantage of freshman point guard Jahii Carson's skillset, who also played a big part in the emergence of Carrick Felix.

Playing in a more open offense, the game looked like it came easy to Felix. You could tell that Felix had played next to a dynamic point guard before (Pierre Jackson) and his ability to work off of Carson was excellent.

Felix isn't much of a playmaker himself, instead he's a guy who you usually will only see taking a maximum of two dribbles. He doesn't have much of a mid-range game either. But what he does is fill his role very well and takes smart shots.

Most of his points come from cuts to the rim, beating guys in transition, offensive rebounds, and cuts spot up 3-pters. As NBA statsheads will tell you, scoring from those spots on the court is an efficient way to make a living. He doesn't over-complicate anything, Felix just makes the plays that are given to him.

His best asset is his motor and you can see him consistently beating the other nine guys down the court on both ends. He became a guy who could get chase down blocks in transition. He was also very versatile and whenever he was covering a power forward, he made it very hard for them to keep up with him running the floor.

In the halfcourt, Felix was able to get to the rims with straight line drives to either direction. He has a good first step and is an explosive finisher in the lane. When he can, he will finish with an emphatic dunk over the defense. The best thing about his drives are that he knows his limitations. He knows he doesn't have an in-between game or the ability to change directions and weave through opponents. Because of that, he makes very few mistakes. He takes to dribbles to the rim and if the lane is open, he will finish. If not, Felix is perfectly content on kicking the ball back out and does a solid job passing.

He will never be the most creative player or much of a scorer, but he will have a very easy transition to the NBA. What he did at Arizona State is the same thing he will do in the NBA. He won't need to tone down his game at all and teams will never have to question his energy level. They also don't have to worry about his maturity or work ethic.

In terms of shooting the ball, he has made significant strides every single year but still needs to get better. He shot 37.4% from three, up from his two previous rates of 30% and 20%. The adjustment to the NBA 3-pt line will be a concern as he is finally just getting himself accommodated to the college line. A guy like him will need to consistently make shots to be able to play in the NBA and he will likely need to spend time in the D-League until he gets used to the NBA line. He does do a nice job sliding to the short corner behind the arc and hitting those 3s. Felix certainly understands where the most efficient shots are on the court.

His free throwing shooting also isn't a good sign for his overall touch. As I said before, Felix hardly ever shoots a mid-range jumper or any floaters. And his free throw shooting percentage of 65% makes you believe he doesn't even shoot inside the arc during practices. His shooting didn't get better as the season went on either. He shot just 61% from the line in conference play.

Defensively, Felix can be a valuable asset. He is a bouncy athlete with a very high motor. In college, he was able to cover just about any position on the court. He came up with steals and blocks, displayed good hands, and attacked the glass hard for rebounds. Felix has worked on his body over the years too and has added a good amount of bulk. He doesn't have a great build to be a power wing, but he certainly has the mindset. With a nonstop motor, long arms, and a good defensive IQ Felix projects to be an above average defender at the next level.

Overall, Carrick Felix looks to be your prototypical mid to late second round pick. He needed the right system in college to flourish and it will be even more important that he finds a good situation in the NBA. Even with the right situation though, he will need to improve his shooting to even see the court. Still, Carrick Felix is a low maintenance guy who has the motor and maturity teams like at the end of their bench. He won't  have a problem transitioning to a role player in the NBA because he pretty much already is one. Look for him to go to smart team in the 50s. He could turn into a poor man's version of Jimmy Butler down the line.

Portsmouth Invitational Team Previews - Sales Systems Ltd.

C Derrick Nix (Michigan State) - Nix had perhaps his most memorable game of his career playing against Valparaiso in the second round of the NCAA Tournament this year. Nix is a huge body who is nimble on his feet and has soft touch around the basket. He's able to finish with both hands, throws around his weight well with a strong drop step, and has been coached up over the years by Tom Izzo. Nix gets over a third of his rebounds on the offensive end and his 1.1 steals per game shows that he is active on defense. He'll look to prove to scouts he can sustain that energy throughout an entire game and get out and defend ball screens on the perimeter.

SF James Ennis (Long Beach State) - James Ennis is one of the most explosive finishers in all of college basketball and participated in the college slam dunk contest. With his explosiveness, its no surprise that he is a great finisher at the rim and out in transition. He has great hangtime, but also shows the body control and strength to finish through contact. Ennis is still raw for the most part, but he's a gamer who fought hard to find ways to score. Defensively, he also has great potential but needs to play with a better court sense. His shooting has come along, but Id be hesitant to call him a reliable spot up option. With seasoning, Ennis could eventually make the NBA ala James White.

PF Ed Daniel (Murray State) - Daniel was a fringe invitee, but a guy I really felt was deserving and is capable of surprising people. He's an energy big who rebounds the ball with great intensity and is also very active and mobile on defense. He has a good basketball IQ and gets himself in good spots defensively to draw charges. Offensively, he has earned his stripes as a screener for Isaiah Canaan, but is also very fluid rolling off those screens and finishing towards the basket. If Daniel shows he can rebound well against the bigs in this event, then just maybe you will start hearing his name more often.

PG Brandon Triche (Syracuse) - Triche is a very well built guard who became a lot more aggressive this season attacking off the dribble. He's both explosive and strong getting to the lane and getting to the line is his biggest strength. Triche struggles in the mid-range area, however, and often gets himself in trouble because of it. His lack of mid-range game forces him to overpenetrate and try to muscle up some question shots at the rim and/or commit charges. Also, while he is a point guard, Triche has never been granting the main point guard duties in his four years at Syracuse. His shooting has also been suspect. Defensively, he has the tools to be a good defender but has been stuck in a zone his whole career. It will be interesting to see him play man to man at Portsmouth.

PG Khalif Wyatt (Temple) - Wyatt is a big time scorer at the college leve despite his athletic shortcomings. Wyatt can score on anybody because he doesn't rely on his athleticism, but instead relies on a bag full of tricks and hesitation moves. He knows how to draw fouls and has mastered the art of kicking his legs out on 3-pt shots. Wyatt is also a good and smart passer, although he isn't quick enough to get into the lane and constantly make plays for teammates. Instead, he uses his size to see over the defense for nice passes. When he gets into the lane, Wyatt is more often in scoring mode and looking to draw the defense off balance - which he does more often than not. At Portsmouth, it will be interesting to see him running the point with some scoring options around him and how he is able to get them the ball. We know he can score in any setting.

PG Rotnei Clarke (Butler) - Clarke isn't an NBA player, but is a dangerous shooter with unlimited range from behind the arc. After 3 seasons at Arkansas, he transferred to Butler for his senior season where he once again shot right around 40% from 3 on a high number of attempts. Despite only being 6'0 and lacking quickness, Clarke  only needs a little bit of space to get his shot off and has no problem in doing so. While NBA scouts likely won't be intrigued by what they see, Clarke is a guy who should catch the eyes of European scouts in attendance.

SF Carrick Felix (Arizona State) - Felix took an odd path to Arizona State, coming from a junior college and then originally committing to Duke. This year he finally broke out playing in a more open offense installed by Herb Sendek and ran by Jahii Carson. Felix played with a motor that was always running, putting in great work on the offensive glass and in transition. He also was able to stretch the defense out from behind the arc and defend the oppositions best player with intensity. Felix's style of play was very efficient and he also did a lot of things that didn't show up in the box score. He's a great athlete who will get a chance to show what else his offensive game consists of besides spot up jumpers and opportunities at the rim.

PF Jared Berggren (Wisconsin) - Berggren has the look of your typical Wisconsin player and in a lot of ways is. He wasn't highly recruited, redshirted his freshman year, and then sat on his bench much of the next two years until finally getting a chance to start his junior season. He earned his way into the rotation as just another piece on a really balanced offensive attack, but showed some intrigue with his combination of a post game and ability to hit jumpers form both the mid-range and 3-pt area. Berggren's toughness is also impressive and his improved rebounding this year is a good sign, even though he still leaves plenty to be desired and lacks both strength and athleticism. It will be interesting to see if he can stand out in Portsmouth or just blends in and looks like an average player. One thing that helps him is his defense - a very underrated aspect to his game.

Most likely draft pick?

Carrick Felix is not only the best player on this team, but one of the best prospects in the entire event. Fingers are still crossed that he stays in the event as other small forwards like Robert Covington and Solomon Hill have pulled their names out.

Summer League Stars?

James Ennis is the ideal summer league player, capable of putting on a show in Vegas. He's also a guy that can make the NBA with continued progression. Khalif Wyatt could earn a NBA roster spot with a good summer league performance while I see both Ed Daniel and Brandon Triche possibly making some noise in Vegas.

European Bound?

Rotnei Clarke, Jared Berggren, and Derrick Nix don't have much of a shot at the NBA, but all three of them have qualities that could make them appealing to European teams. Khalif Wyatt could also go this route and make himself a lot of money.