2013 Small Forwards Prospects By the Numbers

A week ago, we took a loot at the point guard prospects by the numbers. Now we will see how the small forward prospects grade out based off the numbers provided by hoop-data.com. I excluded Otto Porter from this study as I view him as the best small forward prospect by a considerable margin.

*For Glen Rice Jr, I used his data from his previous year at Georgia Tech.

% of Shots at the Rim

Carrick Felix - 43%

James Ennis - 35%

Solomon Hill - 27%

Robert Covington - 25%

Shabazz Muhammad - 24%

Glen Rice Jr - 21%

Deshaun Thomas - 20%

Adonis Thomas - 18%

FG% at the Rim

Glen Rice Jr - 76%

Deshaun Thomas - 74%

James Ennis - 72%

Carrick Felix - 71%

Shabazz Muhammad - 65%

Robert Covington - 64%

Solomon Hill - 63%

Adonis Thomas - 62%

% Assisted at the Rim

Adonis Thomas - 58%

Shabazz Muhammad - 58%

Carrick Felix - 56%

Deshaun Thomas - 48%

Robert Covington - 44%

James Ennis - 41%

Glen Rice Jr - 34%

Solomon Hill - 14%

% Shots 2-pt Jumpers

Adonis Thomas - 59%

Shabazz Muhammad - 53%

Deshaun Thomas - 45%

Robert Covington - 40%

Glen Rice Jr - 37%

Solomon Hill - 31%

James Ennis - 24%

Carrick Felix - 19%

FG% 2pt Jumpers

Solomon Hill - 40%

Glen Rice Jr - 40%

Adonis Thomas - 39%

Deshaun Thomas - 39%

Shabazz Muhammad - 37%

Carrick Felix - 34%

James Ennis - 31%

Robert Covington - 25%

% 2-pt Jumpers Assisted

Adonis Thomas - 54%
Shabazz Muhammad - 47%
Deshaun Thomas - 43%
Robert Covington - 41%
Carrick Felix - 32%
Solomon Hill - 23%
Glen Rice Jr - 17%

James Ennis - 14%

% of 3-pt Shots

Solomon Hill - 42%
Glen Rice Jr - 42%
James Ennis - 41%
Robert Covington - 38%
Carrick Felix - 37%
Deshaun Thomas - 35%
Adonis Thomas - 24%
Shabazz Muhammad - 23%

3-pt FG%

Solomon Hill - 39%
Carrick Felix - 38%
Robert Covington - 38%
Shabazz Muhammad - 38%
Deshaun Thomas - 35%
Glen Rice Jr - 34%
James Ennis - 33%
Adonis Thomas - 29%

% of 3-pt Shots Assisted

Shabazz Muhammad - 100%
Carrick Felix - 96%
Deshaun Thomas - 96%
Adonis Thomas - 92%
Robert Covington - 87%
Solomon Hill - 82%
James Ennis - 68%
Glen Rice Jr - 68%

Observations

James Ennis - James Ennis stands out in this group as a finisher which comes to no surprise. He's the best athlete among the 8 prospects and his team pushed the ball with every chance they could get. You can tell that his team lacked any kind of halfcourt structure on offense which forced Ennis to create more than he should have to. Even though Ennis isn't a good ball handler, he was forced to create a large amount of his jumpshots. He does have a quick step back jumper move, but that isnt his game. Playing in a halfcourt setting in the NBA will be a big adjustment for him. He doesn't have a mid-range game and relies on circus shots in the lane. He will have to improve his jumper. He hit 3s at a good rate but his release has to get quicker.

Carrick Felix - Felix is the most similar to Ennis and both of their strengths are more on the defensive end. Felix played in a much more structured offense however, which complimented his strengths well. He didn't have to create at all and while he also lacks a middle game, he wasn't put in a situation where he had to score off the dribble. Like Ennis, he is a real solid finisher at the rim. He has also turned himself into a good spot up 3-pt shooter. I view Ennis as a better prospect than Felix because of his athletic edge and added playmaking ability.

Solomon Hill - Hill is one of the worst finishers at the rim in the group, but makes up for it with his polished mid-range game. He has the best floor game of the group and has the most versatile offensive attack. He doesn't have to get all the way to the rim to score. He also tested out as the best shooter in the group by leading in both 2-pt% and 3-pt% while taking a higher volume of 3s than anyone. He's a good spot up shooter but also can get his shot off the dribble.

Glen Rice Jr - The more you look at Glen Rice Jr, the more you see how much the situation at Georgia Tech prevented him from showing his true potential. Rice Jr had to create almost all his shots at Georgia Tech as he was near the bottom in assisted shots in all 3 categories. He was also the best finisher at the rim and in the mid-range area, despite not having the advantage of getting any easy baskets. The one area Rice Jr doesn't show well here is 3-pt shooting, but he might actually be the best shooter out of the 8. He proved this year in the D-League that he has no problem with the NBA 3-pt line.

Shabazz Muhammad - There is a big concern with Shabazz's ability to get to the rim based off these numbers. He was in the bottom half in terms of % of shots at the rim while receiving more assisted plays at the rim than anyone. Considering Shabazz also scored a lot of offensive rebounds, the numbers prove the Muhammad was unable to put the ball on the floor and get all the way to the rim at UCLA. He also seemed incapable of creating room for his jump shots. All of his 3-pt makes were assisted and he trailed only Adonis Thomas in most 2-pt jumpers assisted. His mid-range game, however, does show promise.

Deshaun Thomas - Thomas didn't really standout in any one category. We know he can shoot the ball, but he didn't shoot it at an exceptional clip. And there is a big concern with his ability to get shots off at the next level. A lot of his shots were assisted and he doesn't really have any reliable moves to get his shot up. As a small forward at the next level, he will struggle to shoot over longer defenders due to his lack of quickness and height. He did convert well at the rim in limited attempts, but that isnt his game.

Adonis Thomas - Thomas' numbers at the rim couldn't be any more. Despite shooting less at the rim than anyone and having the highest percentage of his shots assisted, Thomas still was last in converting at the rim. Thats a red flag and very puzzling for someone with his size and athleticism. These numbers scream lack of aggression. He did fair well in the mid-range area, which passes the eye test when watching him as well. Thomas will also need to improve his range as he shot worse from 3 this year than anyone.

Robert Covington - For a guy his size and playing against the competition he did, Covington really didn't show as well at the rim as you'd like to see. More concerning was his FG% on 2-pt jumpers since he projects to be a jump shooter at the next level. He ranked last in that area by a fair margin. Tennessee State needed a guy who could create shots this season and he proved that he struggled in that area. Still, Covington brings a nice combination of athleticism and outside shooting that could eventually get him into the NBA.

After watching more film on each of these prospects and taking a look at them by the numbers, here are my personal revised rankings:

1. Glen Rice Jr (late lottery to mid-first round)
2. Shabazz Muhammad (mid-first round)
3. Solomon Hill (early second round)
4. Adonis Thomas (early second round)
5. James Ennis (second round)
6. Deshaun Thomas (second round)
7. Carrick Felix (second round to undrafted)
8. Robert Covington (second round to undrafted)

Others worth noting: James Southerland, Rodney Williams, Will Clyburn

The Case For Adonis Thomas

One of the quickest risers in this draft has been Glen Rice Jr. He's a guy who didn't put up very good numbers in college, took a unique route to the D-League, and saw his stock take off in the process. He was a talented player at Georgia Tech, but he just didn't stand out as much as a guy with his talents should. He wasn't always aggressive and his unselfishness was mistaken for passiveness. If he had entered the draft after he was suspended last season, Glen Rice Jr wouldn't have even gotten drafted.

That changed in the D-League where the game is much closer to the NBA. College basketball and the NBA are two completely different games, while the D-League can almost work as a way to bridge the gap between them. With a 24 second shot clock, less offensive sets, quicker pace, and a more open court things are certainly different from college. Players aren't restricted by their teams offensive sets and they are put in a position where they have to be more aggressive. Players can rely more on their physical gifts and instincts. Their versatility is also able to show more.

I already profiled Glen Rice Jr (read here), but Adonis Thomas has similar qualities that could help him be a better fit in the NBA than he was in college. Unlike Rice Jr, Thomas isn't going directly to the D-League however, and is instead choosing to jump right into the draft. And while his stock is down, a GM would be mistaken to sleep on Thomas the same way they slept on Rice Jr because of their situation in college.

The beauty of scouting is to be able to see players in different systems and project their skills to a higher level. Nobody can debate that Thomas or Rice Jr underachieved in college and I'm not trying to do that. I know all the question marks about Adonis Thomas. And a lot of them are the same questions that were brought up about Glen Rice Jr last year.

Like Glen Rice Jr, Adonis Thomas is a very good athlete who often times blended in too much in college. Everyone yearned for him to be more aggressive. When he was, you saw his ability to get all the way to the rim and finish. His ability to get to the rim is even better than Glen Rice Jr's.

Also like Glen Rice Jr, Adonis Thomas has a high basketball IQ and a good feel for the game. He moved well off the ball, made the right passes, and played within his teams offense.

Adonis Thomas is also very versatile and can score in the post, mid-range, and also step out and hit jumpers. You don't see a lot of small forwards doing that in college, but you see plenty more of it in the NBA. The NBA is all about mismatches and Thomas can take advantage of them. Same thing goes for Glen Rice Jr, who was able to show a post game once he got to the D-League.

If Adonis Thomas took the same route as Glen Rice Jr, I don't think there is any question he'd be in the discussion for a first round pick. Some may question his decision to leave Memphis with his stock at an all time low, but it was obvious that the situation at Memphis wasn't a good fit for him. Thomas stuck it out for two years, was professional and a team player throughout, and did what the team wanted him to do.

He played power forward a lot even though he will be a perimeter player at the next level. That has hurt his stock, but it should act as a testament for his willingness to do anything to help his team. Not many former top recruits would willingly play out of position. Thomas even added weight to bang down low, which in turn limited his athleticism. Since the season, he's already started to work on shedding that weight and getting back to the point where he was an elite athlete. He no longer has to focus on playing inside, although the skills he learned playing in the post will be valuable to him.

Thomas also wasn't able to focus on his perimeter shooting in college and thats something I expect him to be able to improve fairly easily with repetition. You've probably been reading this thinking that the biggest difference between Glen Rice Jr and Adonis Thomas is their shooting ability - and you'd be right.

But Thomas did shoot well in a limited number of attempts his freshman season and has always hit the mid-range jump shot well. His his stroke is consistent and his mechanics are consistent (albeit a little slow). Some of the biggest surprises in the draft the past couple of years are guys who were said to be poor shooters - such as Kawhi Leonard and Chandler Parsons - but like Thomas, both of them were asked to do a lot more things around the rim at college. Now that Thomas is able to focus on slimming down and working on his perimeter shooting, he will start to look even more like a prototypical wing prospect.

One thing that Thomas was able to hang his hat on was his defense and that should get even better as he continues to complete his transition to a full time perimeter player. He competes, has a 7 foot wingspan, good strength, a solid motor, and the versatility to be an impact player on that end of the court. He didn't always make as big as an impact as he could have for Memphis, but he will at least be a very solid defender with the potential to be great. Sticking with the comparisons to Glen Rice Jr, Thomas has the better size and frame along with the athleticism.

Adonis Thomas and Glen Rice Jr certainly aren't the same player nor do they possesses the same skill set. But they do both have similar playing styles and a feel for the game that often gets overlooked when evaluating college prospects. Smart team play turns into criticisms about their passiveness. In college, they are looked at to be stars of their teams. Neither did that. But in the NBA, they will be looked at to be another piece of the puzzle that helps you win games. Nobody will be complaining about their passiveness in the NBA nor will they be as passive. Both have great instincts and athleticism and will be able to utilize those abilities much more freely.

Adonis Thomas is currently projected by some analysts not to get drafted which is a complete oversight and overreaction to someone they once considered a lottery pick. While his lack of production warrants concern and a drop in his stock, there is still plenty of reason to believe he can be a successful NBA player. Unlike a lot of big time athletes who leave early without much production, Thomas isn't a guy with an unrealistic view of himself nor does he have any character concerns. He's actually a pretty cerebral player. And while I am not vouching that he should be a lottery pick as he was once projected, he deserves late first round consider and should definitely be off the board at the top of the second round where contracts aren't guaranteed.

For more on Adonis Thomas, check out my scouting report on him following his freshman season http://nbaprospects.blogspot.com/2012/08/scouting-report-adonis-thomas.html

Scouting Report: Glen Rice Jr

Glen Rice Jr was unceremoniously dismissed from the Georgia Tech basketball team last season after having multiple prior incidents that resulted in suspensions and benchings. At the time, Rice Jr was on nobodies draft radar as his play on the court had been inconsistent and his character questions off the court were major red flags. Instead of transferring to another school or entering his name in the draft only to go undrafted, Glen Rice Jr decided to take the road less traveled by signing up for the NBA D-League. Up until February, Rice Jr had only played sparingly for the Rio Grande Valley Vipers but got his chance to start due to injuries and never looked back. Rice Jr earned a starting spot for the rest of the season and ended up being a key component for the Vipers en route to winning the D-League title.

The first thing Rice Jr's season shows is that there is no "right" path to take to the draft. Everyone is different and thrives in different places. For Rice Jr, a wake up call at Georgia Tech helped get his head on straight. He was removed from the college lifestyle of drinking and partying and relegated to a life of long bus rides and zero notoriety. No red flags turned up from his one season in the D-League, but there will be some skepticism about whether he can continue down a straight path once he becomes part of the NBA lifestyle.

Rice Jr also benefited from the D-Leagues playing style and pro culture. At Georgia Tech, Rice Jr flashed occasional ability with NBA type plays, but was unselfish and often settled for jumpers. In the D-League, where 24 second shot clocks prepare you for the NBA, Rice Jr was forced to become more aggressive and attack more - which paid off in a big way. Rice Jr was also able to practice unlimited hours unlike in college and hit the weight room hard, as evident from the muscle mass his body added over the season.

When scouting Rice Jr in the D-League, its an easier evaluation to judge his game than watching him in college. The floor is more spaced, the tempo is much faster, and the floor is filled with athletes. After shooting 33% from 3 in his final year at Georgia Tech, Rice Jr ended up shooting 38.5% from a couple feet back in the D-League from NBA range. Rice Jr was always regarded as a good shooter even through his struggles, but his success in the D-League is rock solid evidence that he can shoot lights out in the NBA as well.

Rice Jr was also able to show a post game in the D-League - something you rarely get a glimpse at from wings in college. While there was reason to believe Rice Jr could add a post game based of his attributes in college, actually seeing it materialize is another thing. Its easy for scouts to picture Rice Jr now as a NBA wing because the environment he played in had him doing the same things NBA wings are asked to do.

At the same time the D-League was allowing Glen Rice Jr to show off all his strengths, it also spotlighted his lack of energy at times and poor defense. But just as you can attribute the environment for part of his offensive maturation, you can blame it for some of his defensive shortcomings.

For one, Rice Jr played a lot as a stretch forward where he had to guard post players. Rice Jr got beat up defensively on the block. Rice Jr was a NBA frame, but still has plenty of room to fill out between the shoulders. He's done a great job this year starting that process.

The D-League season is also more of a grind and a lack of defense/effort at times isn't harped on as much as it is in college. While it is nobodies fault but Rice Jr's for being slow to get back on defense, this wasn't something that looked like an issue while he was at Georgia Tech. At Tech, Rice Jr was a good defender who created steals and blocks by using his instincts and athleticism.

Having said all that, I decided that it was best that I also take a hard look at Glen Rice Jr's game film from not just the D-League, but from college as well to level the playing field from him and other prospects.

While watching, it was easy to make sense of his success this year. He showed the ability to shoot from range, off screens, and off the dribble. He also showed that he had a very good feel for the game on the offensive level and could get to the rim when he wanted to. However, Rice Jr was often too passive and unselfish to take advantage of that.

As a shooter, Rice Jr tended to prefer to shoot while moving to the right. This was a bit odd considering that on the Vipers he always looked to go left. Rice Jr displayed that same excellent shooting touch from all over the court as he did this season. There is no questioning his shooting abilities - just like there was no questioning his former all-star father's shooting abilities. He has a quick effortless release and did a nice job at Georgia Tech getting set to shoot coming off screens - both with and without the ball.

At Georgia Tech, Rice Jr had a tendency to make some shots harder than they had to be. He would hesitate on 3-pt shots, often taking an extra dribble when he didn't have too. Rice Jr is a good shooter off the bounce, but he could have been more efficient with more set shots.

His patience and unselfishness on offense also showed good things too. He's an excellent passer for his height/position. He lets the game come to him and will make quick touch passes to teammates if they are open. Rice Jr understands ball movement and isn't focused on his own stats. He got the ball in the post and also did a nice job subsequently cutting to the rim for easy baskets.

His ability to move in space and find the soft spot on defenses is one of the reasons he did such a good job for the Vipers. In college, there is less space but he still managed to show off this strength of his. He was able to both facilitate offense and score around the foul line, showing nice touch on a floater in the process. He also did a nice job working off the ball coming around screens.

Rice Jr also got some pick and roll looks. While he didn't usually attack the defense from this position with the dribble, he did make some nice passing from these sets showing off his court vision. Rice Jr has very good awareness and a high hoops IQ on the offensive end. He also took a lot of 3-pt jumpers in pick and roll sets - again, often moving to his right.

When it comes to his attacking game, this is one area where he showed flashes but not consistently enough. This year in the D-League he made major improvements by attacking defenders who closed out hard on him. In college, he showed the same kind of hesitations on closeouts, but a lot of times he still ended up shooting a jumper. When he did attack, he was very successful thanks to a good first step and wide shoulders. Rice Jr isn't quick with the ball, but he does remain under control in drives and is able to cross up defenders. He also showed off his handles in transition where behind the back moves weren't uncommon.

Another thing that I would classify as "NBA moves" that Rice Jr showed off was his ability to get to the rim with only two bounces. This showed in the D-League as well. He's a great straight line attacker who can mix in a crossover move if necessary. When it comes to finishing, Rice Jr has some dexterity, explosiveness, and strength at the rim. Finishing can become a big strength for him as well.

At this point in time, Rice Jr needs to threat of the jumper to create most of his offense. Although he has a nice driving game, he struggles to get by defenders in isolation/standstill situations. His first step isn't elite and his quickness is below average. Watching him in the D-League, it was very telling watching him discover this for himself against elite athletes.

Defensively, Rice Jr uses his athleticism to get both blocks and steals. He is a great shot blocker coming from the weakside. And while he looked disinterested in help defense in the D-League at times, he showed very promising awareness at Georgia Tech. At Georgia Tech he also did a good job staying disciplined while contesting shots and coming up with steals. He has the frame to handle physical wings and the versatility to guard multiple positions. There is a concern with his foot speed on the perimeter and he certainly won't be a lock down guys, but he's IQ and end to end athleticism can allow him to be a very good team defender (see James Posey). For that to happen though, he will need to change the bad habits he developed this year in the D-League in terms of not hustling and being attentive. At times it looked like he had zero awareness on the defensive end, but I think that is more attributed to his energy/focus than his feel and understanding for the game.

Overall, Glen Rice Jr has used his one year out of college to turn himself into a legitimate NBA prospect and he should definitely be drafted. The question now is "how high?". He has an edge on the rest of the prospects when it comes to adjusting to the NBA game and he also has the shooting ability that will translate right away. After reviewing his college tape, his D-League success doesn't seem like a fluke at all. Scouts will still have to question whether he can keep his head on straight once he gets drafted, but he has the talent of the possible first round draft pick in this draft.