Thursday, February 7, 2013

2013 NBA Mock Draft

1. Charlotte Bobcats - FR Nerlens Noel, C, Kentucky
2. Washington Wizards - FR Anthony Bennett, PF, UNLV
3. Cleveland Cavaliers - SO Cody Zeller, F/C, Indiana
4. Orlando Magic - FR Marcus Smart, PG, Oklahoma State
5. New Orleans Hornets - FR Shabazz Muhammad, G/F, UCLA
6. Phoenix Suns - FR Ben McLemore, SG, Kansas
7. Oklahoma City Thunder - FR Archie Goodwin, SG, Kentucky
8. Sacramento Kings - SO Otto Porter, SF, Georgetown
9. Detroit Pistons - SO Trey Burke, PG, Michigan
10. Minnesota Timberwolves - SR CJ McCollum, G, Lehigh
11. Philadelphia 76ers - SO Alex Len, C, Maryland
12. Dallas Mavericks - 1992 Rudy Gobert, F/C, Cholet
13. Phoenix Suns (from Lakers) - FR Isaiah Austin, PF, Baylor
14. Charlotte Bobcats (from Minnesota) - SO James Michael McAdoo, PF, North Carolina
15. Boston Celtics - FR Alex Poythress, F, Kentucky
16. Atlanta Hawks (from Rockets) - SO Michael Carter-Williams, G, Syracuse
17. Utah Jazz - JR Victor Oladipo, G/F, Indiana
18. Milwaukee Bucks - FR Glenn Robinson III, SF, Michigan
19. Atlanta Hawks - SR Mason Plumlee, F/C, Duke
20. Brooklyn Nets - SO LeBryan Nash, SF, Oklahoma State
21. Indiana Pacers - JR Kelly Olynyk, PF, Gonzaga
22. Denver Nuggets - SR Jeff Withey, C, Kansas
23. Chicago Bulls - SR Michael Snaer, SG, Florida State
24. Utah Jazz (from Warriors) - JR Ray McCallum, PG, Detroit
25. New York Knicks - 1994 Dario Saric, F, Cibona Zagreb
26. Minnesota Timberwolves (from Memphis) - FR TJ Warren, F, North Carolina State
27. Cleveland Cavaliers (from Miami) - JR Doug McDermott, F, Creighton
28. Los Angeles Clippers - JR Reggie Bullock, G/F, North Carolina
29. Oklahoma City Thunder - JR Gorgui Dieng, C, Louisville
30. San Antonio Spurs - SO BJ Young, G, Arkansas

31. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Bobcats) - 1993 Sergey Karasev, SF, Triumph Moscow
32. Washington Wizards - SO Tony Mitchell, F, North Texas
33. Cleveland Cavaliers - JR Phil Pressey, PG, Missouri
34. Cleveland Cavaliers (from Magic) - JR Patric Young, F/C, Florida
35. Philadelphia 76ers (from Hornets) - JR Jamaal Franklin, G/F, San Diego State
36. Phoenix Suns - JR CJ Leslie, PF, North Carolina State
37. Memphis Grizzlies (from Toronto) - SO Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, G/F, Georgia
38. Sacramento Kings - SR CJ Wilcox, G/F, Washington
39. Detroit Pistons - JR Deshaun Thomas, F, Ohio State
40. Portland Trailblazers (from Minnesota) - SR Richard Howell, F/C, North Carolina State
41. Philadelphia 76ers - SR Jackie Carmichael, PF, Illinois State
42. Dallas Mavericks - SO Myck Kabongo, PG, Texas
43. Los Angeles Lakers - JR Andre Roberson, F, Colorado
44. Denver Nuggets (from Portland) - JR Russ Smith, G, Louisville
45. Portland Trailblazers (from Boston) - SR Brandon Paul, G, Illinois
46. Atlanta Hawks (from Houston) - SR Mike Muscala, F/C, Bucknell
47. Utah Jazz - JR Lorenzo Brown, PG, North Carolina State
48. Milwaukee Bucks - 1991 Bojan Dubljevic, F/C, Valencia
49. Atlanta Hawks - SR Trevor Mbawke, F/C, Minnesota
50. Minnesota Timberwolves (from Brooklyn) - 1992 Lucas Nogueira, C, Estudiantes
51. Indiana Pacers - FR Ricky Ledo, SG, Providence
52. Phoenix Suns (from Denver) - SR Rodney Williams, F, Minnesota
53. Chicago Bulls - JR Tim Hardaway Jr, SG, Michigan
54. Orlando Magic (from Warriors) - 1992 Leo Westermann, PG, Partizan
55. Washington Wizards (from Knicks) - SR Erick Green, G, Virginia Tech
56. Los Angeles Lakers (from Memphis) - SR Nate Wolters, PG, South Dakota State
57. Miami Heat - 1991 Nemanja Nedovic, G, Lietuvos Rytas
58. Detroit Pistons (from Clippers) - SR Durand Scott, G, Miami
59. Minnesota Timberwolves (from Thunder) - 1991 Oleksandr Lypovyy, SF, Donetsk
60. San Antonio Spurs - SR Isaiah Canaan, G, Murray State

Not Considered (Assuming they won't delcare):

Steven Adams
Rasheed Sulaimon
Shannon Scott
Montrezl Harrell
Khem Birch
Willie Cauley-Stein
Semaj Christon
Jarnell Stokes
Brandon Ashley
Allen Crabbe
Cory Jefferson
Gary Harris
Kevin Pangos
Dez Wells
LaQuinton Ross
Kaleb Tarczewski
Branden Dawson
CJ Fair

Top Undrafted:

Ryan Kelly
Laurence Bowers
Mike Moser
Elijah Johnson
Jack Cooley
Reggie Johnson
Pierre Jackson
Kenny Kadji
Sean Kilpatrick
Solomon Hill
James Ennis

Wednesday, February 6, 2013

The 5 Best Bets in the 2013 NBA Draft

At this point in the season, things are starting to shape up to a clear enough picture that you can see what you a working with in the lottery. For me, there are 5 nearly clear cut starters that will be able to contribute sooner than later. They don't rank as my top 5 picks - but if I had a pick in the top 14, Id certainly look to put myself in position to get one.

1. Nerlens Noel

Why Noel? Noel is certainly very raw, but that doesn't mean you can't project him into a sure-fire starter by taking a small leap of faith. His defensive ability is already for the lights of the NBA which is something you can't say about many other 18 year old freshman centers ever. Right now he relies more on his outstanding physical gifts and motor, but for him, that goes a long way. Noel has been the only stable factor on this UK team all year long. It speaks volumes about his character and his understanding of his role. While Poythress gets benched because of lack of effort and Goodwin faces questions with his shot selection, Noel has been the rock inside for Kentucky all year long. Noel could have easily went down the wrong path at UK with no veteran leadership and varying success so far, but he's been everything you could want in a budding star. He has erased any concerns about who he thinks he is as a player and his work ethic is reportedly good. At this point, that is not only good enough to put faith in him as a NBA starter sometime soon - but also as the #1 overall pick.

2. Marcus Smart

Smart has been ranked as a top 5 pick on this site since November and has cemented his status ever since with strong performances in big games. Smart is not phased by these situations and has been the leader of Oklahoma State's team all season long. His leadership ability was raved about all summer long by coaches while he played for the U18 USA team. His natural leadership ability made him the easy choice for starting point guard and while he is still learning the position, he has shown plenty of potential in making plays for both him and his teammates. Smart also gets after it on the defensive end - making tons of plays and rebounding the ball - and Oklahoma State has gone from the 107th best team defensively last year to a top 20 team now (kenpom.com). Defense, leadership, maturity, excellent size, athleticism, and a good skillset are  a recipe for a player that wont let you down if you select him. And he's only 18 and brimming with potential.

3. Trey Burke

Trey Burke doesn't possess the amount of potential as the first two guys, but he is already a well-rounded and schooled point guard that can contribute right away. I don't expect Burke to go in the top 5 nor should he - but just like Kemba Walker, if Burke is to drop to the bottom of the top 10 he is an easy pick. Burke may end of National Player of the Year this year on top of leading one of the best team's in the country. He acts as both a scorer and playmaker for his teammates and can score in a variety of ways. Burke can push it in transition, finish at the rim, make plays in the halfcourt, and get his shot off the dribble. There simply is no weakness in his game and it is hard to see him not being a factor at the next level.

4. Ben McLemore

I was on McLemore quickly this year just like Smart. Some players you can just tell right away if they have something special to them. For McLemore, his mix of athleticism and shooting ability projects him very well to the next level. McLemore already has a good understanding of curling around screens and keeping himself squared to the basket to convert shots. The look of his jumper has drawn comparisons to Ray Allen. McLemore is also a big time finisher above the rim and with improved ball handling, his slashing game could become a factor as well. Right now, he is a dynamic shooter that actually has proven in college he can shoot - cough Brad Beal - which gives him a home in the NBA.

5. Cody Zeller

Zeller currently ranks lower than the rest of these guys on my rankings and that is mainly due to the lack of upside. But his basketball IQ and skillset make him the most NBA ready big man in this draft. And Zeller already has two brothers with NBA experience and it is hard to see him not being the best one. Zeller is known for his offensive skill in the post and this season his jumper that he has always said to have, is starting to show in games. What might be a surprise is what he can bring defensively for a team. Zeller is often criticize for his wingspan and lack of explosiveness, but most of the game of basketball is played away from the rim or with the idea of preventing a team from getting to the rim - and that is exactly what Zeller does. Zeller understands defense more than any other big man in this draft and is one of the few that can play NBA defense right away.


One more to consider: Otto Porter

Saturday, February 2, 2013

Michigan vs Indiana

Quick thoughts after Indiana beat Michigan 81-73 in Assembly Hall


- Cody Zeller looked like an All-American tonight. His defense gets underrated because he isn't necessarily a game changer at the next level, but he is one of the smartest big men in college basketball. I criticize a lot of center prospects for their lack of awareness on defense despite their strong physical attributes but Zeller is the opposite. He does the things that I'd like to see guys like Alex Len and Nerlens Noel do. He defends the pick and roll extremely well, protects the rim with his footwork, and plays good post defense. Zeller was also aggressive in attacking the boards on both ends of the court and finished strong on multiple putback jams.

Zeller's motor was cranked all the way up in this one and made quite a few hustle plays. He is always good at getting out in transition and going after loose balls. Indiana tends to go stretches without getting him the ball, but when he does get it, he did a great job making plays tonight. He is surprisingly quick putting the ball on the court and graceful shooting his version of the leaner. Zeller also has been connecting on his 2-pt jumpshots at a high rate recently. The hype around Zeller as a potential #1 pick has disappeared, but his value is still firmly in the lottery. Tonight's game was one of this best of his career.

- A lot of people suggested that Oladipo would garner the assignment of covering Trey Burke in this one. Oladipo started the game on Hardaway Jr and only ended up on Burke on a few possessions. Indiana was still able to slow down Burke without Oladipo . Ohio State set the blueprint on how to take away Burke's options off screens and Indiana followed suite with their own style. Will Sheehey covered Burke a lot and was able to play off him a bit and force him into jumpshots. Zeller and Watford were also big in stopping the pick and roll game - as mentioned before, Zeller is one of the best in the game at hedging on the perimeter. Burke had very little room to attack the lane and ended up having to take contested jumper after contested jumper. He finished the night shooting 9-24 from the field while half his shots came from behind the arc.

- Oladipo came out of the gate on a mission. For the first ten minutes of the game, he had Dick Vitale ready to compare him to Michael Jordan. Oladipo's athleticism and energy continue to form a magical combination that goes unmatched by anyone in the country. He was stifling on defense. He brought the ball all the way up court with a full head of steam and didn't stop until he was at the rim. Oladipo doesn't have great handles, but he manages to change directions with the ball quickly and has no problem getting by people. It seems like he is always on the verge of turning it over yet he manages to either finish it himself or find an open man out of the corner of his eye. Despite his lack of handles, Oladipo has become a great playmaker with the ball in his hands.

- Glenn Robinson finished with an 0fer tonight while playing every single minute of the game. Dick Vitale mentioned quite a few times that he needed to step up and make plays, but that just isn't his game. Robinson III has relied on Burke to break down the defense for much of the year and his lack of points was a direct result of Burke not getting into the lane. Robinson III is mainly a catch and shoot type player at this point who can also crash the boards once the defense is broken down. His lack of ability to create or step up shouldn't come as a surprise if you've watched him also season. Robinson III is a high efficient scorer, but not a creative one.

- With Jordan Morgan limited with a bad ankle, Mitch McGary was able to see the floor more and made his presence known. He did a great job denying entry passes and coming up with steals. McGary plays with a high motor, can bang in the paint, and looked good running the court in transition. He was one of the better players on the court tonight for Michigan. He continues to get more playing time and his 28 minutes was a season high - and those coming against Indiana should mean something.

- Yogi Ferrell will be one of the best point guards in the country within the next year. He was inefficient in non-conference play because he couldn't get his shots to fall, but has hit 9 long balls in his last 4 games. Ferrell is incredibly quick with great handles and looks very comfortable in pick and roll situations.

Saturday, January 19, 2013

Midseason Report: Alex Len

Not only did Alex Len come into this season 30 pounds heavier than last year, he was also a lot more comfortable. In his freshman season, he was forced to miss the first ten games and the season and had a hard time adjusting to life in the states. Imagine his situation - missing the first ten games is one thing - we saw how slow Shabazz was after missing weeks of practice and UCLA's first three games. And the overall transition to the college game is tough for any player, especially living away from home for the first time. But for Len, he moved by himself to another country and didn't even understand the language. So while he was behind in learning Maryland's system, he had an even tougher time understanding the coaches and getting up to speed.

This year Len's English had improved to the point where he can now communicate with his teammates and understand what the coaches have to say. There was a sense that he would have a breakout year and potentially become a first round draft pick. Maryland's first game was against Kentucky and Len didn't wait very long to generate buzz in front of plenty of NBA scouts at Barclay's. 

Len had 23 points (10-18 shooting) and 12 rebounds against potential #1 overall pick Nerlens Noel. This was the perfect way for Len to start off his year and the matchup couldn't have been better. The hype surrounding Noel was immense, but he was still a very raw freshman in his first game. But seeing Alex Len outplay him, that turned some heads - even though it shouldn't have been a surprise. 

Soon after, you started hearing Len's name mentioned among the top 5 players in the draft. An obvious overreaction for a guy who really only had one good game. Fans were infatuated with a college big man with a true post game. Old school NBA fans loved him and wondered aloud if he could be the polished post big man that the NBA has been missing. They romanticized his game into something they longed for - something that has been thought to be dying in the professional game.

And make no mistake about it - Alex Len is a highly skilled player. His back to the basket game is one of the best to come along in the college ranks in recent memory. The variety of ways in which he can score, his ability to stretch the defense, and his touch on his shot make his offensive game complete. He throws in turnaround jumpers from either shoulder, solid footwork, and willingness to operate with his back to the basket the people love and is tough to stop if you are the opposition. 

Len didn't dominate competition after his game against Kentucky. After his 23 point performance against the Wildcats, Len failed to match it in any other non-conference affair - netting a high 19 against Stony Brook. But Len wasn't needed to dominate these games. Maryland rolled over most of their competition with a high scoring offensive attack that didn't have to involve their plodding big man. They played arguably the weakest non-conference schedule in the NCAA and Len was consistently covered by smaller defenders - but sometimes two defenders at a time. 

Heading into ACC play, you could say Alex Len was playing a good game. He went "all-in" on the Kentucky game, raising his stock, and then sat back and played it safe thereafter. There wasn't much he could have done in games against the likes of Maryland-Eastern Shore, Georgia Southern, and South Carolina State. He continued to flash his skills each game and analysts were satisfied with his performance - with Kentucky still engraved in their mind.

ACC play is a different animal though. It separates the men from the boys. So far, Len had faced young "boys" at Kentucky in their first career college game and a bunch of low-major 6-7 post players. And he actually struggled at times with the physicality of play and defense.

But nobody was watching him then. 

We are now 5 games into ACC play. Through these 5 games, Len is shooting 47% from the field, 19-28 from the line, grabbing 11 boards (per 40), and has 7 blocks and 5 assists to his name. Again, still nothing dominating and his last two games against other potential first round bigs have netted him 20 total points. 

The Terrapins have had trouble getting the ball into Len and in the process, are making sure people don't underestimate the value of a quality entry pass. Pe'Shon Howard has struggled to run the point for the Terps and has delivered errant passes into the post time and time again.

Passing into the post is a lost art. And it comes with the lack of big men with offensive skills like Len's. And playing through a big man is also something that has gone to the wayside. 

The Terrapins have been battling with an identity crisis so far in ACC play due to that very issue. They have a good big man and want to get the ball into him, But at the same time, the game has changed and you like your players to get out and push the ball in transition. If a college team is struggling to focus an offense around a talented big man, you think a more talented NBA team will go out of their way to run their offense through one?

Maryland's problem isn't just entry passing and style of play when it comes to featuring Len. Its personnel. Maryland's other bigs are bruising types and clog the lane on offense. Between Shaq Cleare, Charles Mitchell and James Padgett - none of them have shown an inclination to shoot jumpers. So with the big lineups Mark Turgeon likes to run, Alex Len usually lacks the space that a lot of other college teams have that have stretch power forwards.

But it isn't just the big man who can't shoot. No, this is a problem with the whole team. Such a problem that Albany transfer Logan Aronhalt finds himself as a necessary member of the team's rotation. They rank 10th in the ACC in 3-pt percentage and have only made 95 on the year - which ranks them 243rd in the nation. 

So spacing is an obvious problem as well. Pe'Shon can't throw entry passes or run point, Dez Wells prefers to push the ball, and Nick Faust rarely looks to set up his teammates to score. Not exactly the supporting cast you'd want to surround Len with. But we know what he is capable of on offense so that isn't a concern.

Concerns with Len come with his defense and his role at the next level. His role is a complicated matter that we've skimmed over a few times already. His defense is pretty simple - he's not very good at it.

And I don't think most people have realized that Len is a bad defender. But they will now that ACC play has started. Simply looking at blocks, you'd assume Len is at least a solid defender. He's normally good for two of them a game. 

Being a good shot blocker doesn't equal a good defender though. Len is the perfect example. For one, Len is a chronic biter on pump fakes. He's always looking to block a shot and is easily lifted off of his feet. To make it worse is his recovery time - once he gets out of place, ball handlers will have their shot off before he can even regather himself.

His lack of ability to make up for mistakes also corresponds to his inability to change directions or move laterally well. Opposing teams love getting Len out on the top of the arc to cover the pick and roll. He is very slow on his feet, struggles changing directions, and lacks an understanding of where to be in order to disrupt the offense. In most cases, Len finds himself in no mans land - not helping hedge the ball handler or getting back to cover the roller. A slow mind mixed with slow feet is not a recipe for success on defense. Len finds himself out of position more times than not on the defensive end.

Len also needs to do a better job using that 7'5'' wingspan on the defensive end. Naturally, Len stands a bit awkwardly and is obviously not a natural knee bender when it comes to getting into defense position and moving his feet. But in the post, Len can do a better job of showing off his wingspan and deterring shots without going for blocks. He needs to develop a mentality as a rim protector - too many times he allows a man to slip behind him and get an easy basket. He also struggles with smaller guys who can go into his body, use his leverage against him, and also outmuscle him. Len has been beaten in this way by some of the low-major players.

Alex Len is a solid rebounder, pulling down 12.5 per 40 minutes. Compared to other top prospects, Len is the 11th best big man in DraftExpress's Top 100 in terms of rebounds. Not great, not terrible. For his size, you'd like more. For the NBA, you'd certainly like a center that is either a great defender or rebounder. Len is neither at this point. Len has been outhustled and outmanned on the boards at times this year. When he does pull down boards though, he usually does a good job of maintaining possession. 

Then there is the question of fit. How does he fit an NBA team? Who does he play like?

The Jonas Valanciunas comparison has been thrown around. Valanciunas actually dominated Len a few years back in the U-18 European Championships. The comparison is pretty off base. Yes, both have similar size and builds while lacking great athleticism. But that is where the comparisons stop for me.

Valanciunas is a much different offensive player. He thrives finishing around the hoop and doesn't stray too far from there. He sticks with his bread and butter and plays efficient basketball. He knows how to use his length around the rim and is stronger than he looks. He also is a good screener who would much rather roll to the basket off a ball screen than to pop out for a jumper. His ability to roll after a pick is a considerable strength and he gets a lot of points this way. On these plays, Jonas shows his ability to move in space and the body control to finish. Valanciunas has always been, and projects to be, a complimentary piece on offense instead of a guy you ask to make plays in the post.

Now for Len, he's a guy who would much prefer to pop after a ball screen. He is much more skilled and can knock down jumpers from 18 feet in. When he rolls, he is slow and isn't very fluid. He can do it on occasion and has good hands to receive passes, but it is not a strength of his. And when it comes to finishing inside, he is not on the same level as Jonas. Len shies away from the contact and is hesitant in traffic. He doesnt use his long arms as well as the Lithuanian does to finish. When it comes to offensive skills though, Alex Len's ability far outshine Valanciunas's as has already been discussed. He is much more likely to receive post touches and have the offense run through him.

Defensively is where the greatest separation could be. Valanciunas has the lateral ability, the aggressiveness, and the smarts that Len has not shown. And that is where fit comes into play. Valanciunas fit into the NBA was easy to project. Len has a more intriguing package in some ways, but how can a NBA team use it?

NBA centers in today's game are asked to rebound and defender first and foremost. The game has changed from the days of dominant offensive bigs. There is no more hand checking which allows guards to be much more prominent. While people yearn for fundamentally sound bigs to return, the problem is more of the priorities of GMs than it is the lack of back to the basket big men. 

Alex Len has lots of work to do in order to become a starter in the NBA and fill the role of a 2012 NBA center. And if you do run the offense through him, his passing has to improve if the 5 assists in 5 ACC games is any indication.

Thursday, January 17, 2013

2013 NBA Mock Draft

*More early entry candidates are included in this mock because it is simply a guessing game to decide who will or will not declare. Therefore, this draft appears much deeper than it will be come June. Most of these second rounders have a good chance of going late first and there are plenty of undrafted players who will end up being selected in the real draft. Enjoy!*

1. Charlotte Bobcats - FR Nerlens Noel, F/C, Kentucky
2. Cleveland Cavaliers - FR Ben McLemore, SG, Kansas
3. Washington Wizards - FR Anthony Bennett, PF, UNLV
4. Sacramento Kings - FR Shabazz Muhammad, G/F, UCLA
5. Phoenix Suns -1992 Rudy Gobert, F/C, Cholet
6. Orlando Magic - FR Marcus Smart, PG, Oklahoma State
7. New Orleans Hornets - SO Otto Porter, SF, Georgetown
8. Philadelphia 76ers - SR CJ McCollum, G, Lehigh
9. Detroit Pistons - SO Trey Burke, PG, Michigan
10. Toronto Raptors (to Oklahoma City) - FR Steven Adams, C, Pittsburgh
11. Minnesota Timberwolves - FR Glenn Robinson Jr, SF, Michigan
12. Dallas Mavericks - SO Alex Len, C, Maryland
13. Portland Trailblazers (to Charlotte) - SO Cody Zeller, F/C, Indiana
14. Los Angeles Lakers - FR Isaiah Austin, F/C, Baylor
15. Atlanta Hawks - SR Mason Plumlee, F/C, Duke
16. Milwaukee Bucks - FR Alex Poythress, F, Kentucky
17. Utah Jazz - FR Michael Carter-Williams, PG, Syracuse
18. Boston Celtics - SO Tony Mitchell, PF, North Texas
19. Houston Rockets (to Atlanta) - JR Reggie Bullock, G/F, North Carolina
20. Chicago Bulls - FR Rasheed Sulaimon, SG, Duke
21. Brooklyn Nets - SO James Michael McAdoo, PF, North Carolina
22. Golden State Warriors (to Utah) - JR Victor Oladipo, G/F, Indiana
23. Indiana Pacers - SR Jackie Carmichael, PF, Illinois State
24. New York Knicks - JR Gorgui Dieng, F/C, Louisville
25. Memphis Grizzlies (to Minnesota) - FR TJ Warren, F, North Carolina State
26. Denver Nuggets - SR Jeff Withey, C, Kansas
27. Miami Heat (to Cleveland) - 1994 Dario Saric, F, Cibona Zagreb
28. San Antonio Spurs - SR Michael Snaer, SG, Florida State
29. Los Angeles Clippers - JR Andre Roberson, F, Colorado
30. Oklahoma City Thunder - FR Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Kentucky

Round 2

1. Charlotte Bobcats (to Oklahoma City) - SO BJ Young, G, Arkansas
2. Cleveland Cavaliers - JR Phil Pressey, PG, Missouri
3. Washington Wizards - SO LeBryan Nash, SF, Oklahoma State
4. Sacramento Kings - 1993 Sergey Karasev, SF, Triumph Moscow
5. Phoenix Suns - JR Jamaal Franklin, G/F, San Diego State
6. Orlando Magic (to Cleveland) - JR Patric Young, F/C, Florida
7. New Orleans Hornets (to Philadelphia) - SO Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG, Georgia
8. Philadelphia 76ers - 1991 Nemandja Nedovic, G, Lietuvos Rytas
9. Detroit Pistons - SO Adonis Thomas, SF, Memphis
10. Toronto Raptors - FR Khem Birch, F/C, UNLV
11. Minnesota Timberwolves (to Portland) - SR Richard Howell, PF, North Carolina State
12. Dallas Mavericks - JR CJ Leslie, PF, North Carolina State
13. Portland Trailblazers (to Denver) - SO Myck Kabongo, PG, Texas
14. Los Angeles Lakers - JR Doug McDermott, F, Creighton
15. Atlanta Hawks - JR Deshaun Thomas, F, Ohio State
16. Milwaukee Bucks - SR Mike Muscala, F/C, Bucknell
17. Utah Jazz - 1992 Leo Westermann, G, Partizan
18. Boston Celtics (to Portland) - 1992 Lucas Nogueira, C, Estudiantes
19. Houston Rockets (to Atlanta) - JR Kelly Olynyk, F/C, Gonzaga
20. Chicago Bulls - SR Brandon Paul, G, Illinois
21. Brooklyn Nets (to Minnesota) - JR Russ Smith, G, Louisville
22. Golden State Warriors (to Orlando) - JR Ray McCallum, PG, Detroit
23. Indiana Pacers - JR Allen Crabbe, SG, California
24. New York Knicks (to Washington) - JR Lorenzo Brown, G, North Carolina State
25. Memphis Grizzlies - JR CJ Wilcox, G/F, Washington
26. Denver Nuggets (to Phoenix) - SR Rodney Williams, F, Minnesota
27. Miami Heat - SR Isaiah Canaan, G, Murray State
28. San Antonio Spurs - SR Ed Daniel, F/C, Murray State
29. Los Angeles Clippers - SR Ryan Kelly, PF, Duke
30. Oklahoma City Thunder (to Minnesota) - 1993 Alex Abrines, SG, Barcelona

Sunday, January 6, 2013

Saturday's Weekend Wrap-Up

Cincinnati vs St. John's

Sean Kilpatrick got off to a hot start this year along with the rest of the Bearcat team. However, as we head into a tougher part of the schedule, both him and the team are looking much more average. The Bearcats have been a team that takes advantage of their athleticism and defense by pressuring teams into tough shots. Now, they have been the team getting bullied on the inside.

Kilpatrick only scored 7 points against St. John's - probably the most athletic team he's faced to date. In his last three games (against New Mexico, St. John's, and Pittsburgh), his best shooting performance was his 3-8 game against Pittsburgh. I've watched each of those games and it seems his stock is deteriorating before our eyes. His 3-pt shooting is now down to 33% and that is supposed to be his calling card at the next level. His driving game isn't working either - he has to try to muscle the way to the hoop and has struggled finishing vs size. The write-up I wrote on Kilpatrick in November is looking on point. I thought I might have been a bit too tough on him after his strong December.

Rutgers vs Pittsburgh

Rutgers' pulled off the upset early on Saturday morning which was the start of 3 ranked Big East teams losing. I've been vocal about how much I like this Panther team, but getting outrebounded 31-21 just isn't their style. Talib Zanna only had 1 rebound and now there is a bit of reservation if he has actually made the jump to one of the better big men in the Big East. He has been fools gold before. He thrives in transition opportunities which won't be as rampant in conference play, but his rebounding is a bit of a mystery. I still really like his awareness on defense. He does a great job covering for Steven Adams' mistakes.

Speaking of Adams, he only had 4 rebounds in 28 minutes. This was a better game for him then the box score indicates though. He continues to make visible progress each game which makes his potential almost something tangible. He has been running the court and moving on offense with purpose. It is amazing just how fluid he is at his height. He does a great job moving from point A to point B on offense and finally looks like he knows where he is going. He's been able to catch the ball on the run and finish all in one smooth motion. He completely shut out every pick and roll attempt Rutgers tried. He is a little slow getting back to his man, which is where Zanna's ability to move comes in handy.

The one area where Adams really needs to improve in the immediate feature is his rebounding. Not his ability to rebound the ball, but his ability to hang onto it after he gets it. He is weak coming down with the ball and gets it taken away from him too many times. Adams needs to develop a mean streak. If he shows this, I'd consider drafting him in the top 5-8.

Lamar Patterson is a talented jack-of-all trade performer who I've liked dating back to high school. but it is time for him to expand himself as a player. He is a capable driver and creator and Pittsburgh desperately needs another aggressor on the perimeter. He needs to step up.

Baylor vs Texas

This game was a bit of a surprise with Texas forcing overtime as Scott Drew serving a suspension, but the Bears ended up winning 86-79.

Cory Jefferson came up huge with 25 points and 10 rebounds. His combination of size, athleticism, and energy is the perfect recipe for an early second round draft pick. He is only listed at 210lbs, but looks much bigger and certainly plays stronger than that. He got most of his points around the rim by using a combination of his aforementioned athleticism and relentlessness. He's a team player and also a very good defender. He's gone against 3 strong frontcourts in his last three games - all games that I watched - against Gonzaga, Texas, and BYU. In those 3 games, he has grabbed a total of 33 rebounds.

Those three games have also been an opportunity to see how Isaiah Austin fairs against strong frontlines and he's done as well as one could ask - tallying 52 points and 30 rebounds over that stretch. Austin gets a lot of flack for his softness, but to his credit, he doesn't shy away from contact. It just isn't his game, therefore, it isn't smart for him to try to battle down low. And it probably never will be given his physical profile. You have to accept Austin for what he is - a skilled power forward with elite coordination and nice ball skills. I think everyone agrees on the basic scouting report for Austin, but what that amounts to in the NBA is up for debate. Stretch forwards can be a dime a dozen, but just how high is Austin's potential? There haven't been many 7+ footers with his ball skills since Dirk, so there is some intrigued. Then again, finding a guy anywhere near Dirk is like hitting the lottery. NBA teams tried time and time again to hit the lottery in the 2000s with European 7 footers, each time failing.

Pierre Jackson had a somewhat erratic game, making some errant passes and playing too fast at times. But he did get to the line 15 times thanks to his combination of elite quickness and good ball handling ability. He has a tight crossover that is able to break down defenses. Jackson needs to learn to slow his game down and become more of a constant nuisance on defense, but he has himself in discussions as a second rounder.

For Texas, there has been a lot of positive things to say about them until Javan Felix's performance yesterday. The Longhorns offense has been a mess a season, lacking spacing or any kind of rhythm. Texas has always been at their best with players off all shapes and sizes who can shoot and stretch their defense. It has appeared the Rick Barnes is still trying to run the same sets with this personnel, yet without the shooters. Finally yesterday, Felix took control of the offense through the pick and roll game. He finished with 26 points and 9 assists while only handing the ball over to the defense once. The performance was as impressive as it sounds - he ran the pick and roll with poise and was able to get lots of good looks in the mid-range area. Baylor didn't defend it well, something that might have had to do with Drew being out, but Felix deserves the credit for this one.

Murray State vs SE Missouri State

Ed Daniel - Daniel's endurance was on full display, bringing his energy for 37 minutes in a game that was close post of the way. Daniel is the same kind of player as Ben Wallace or Kenneth Faried - two other small school products who come from the southeast. He's not as good, but he has a good shot at making a NBA team.

At this level, he does a great job at running down the court to establish deep low post position in the paint. He isn't a bully with his size, but does possess great quickness and determination. His post game is basic, relying on a running right handed hook shot and and vanilla arsenal of ball fakes. He hit a foul line jumper in this game. His jumpshot is more of a touch shot though - and he has good touch, but his range doesn't look promising - 10 feet and in. With Isaiah Canaan, his main role on offense is more as a screener and rebounder than a go-to threat.

Defensively, Daniel moves like a small forward and has a tremendous IQ. He brings non-stop energy and is willing to lay his body on the line at all times. He plays great help defense and puts great pride in keeping his man out of the paint (although he can get pushed around at times). Daniel has a chiseled frame that has obviously seen the weight room, much like Faried's in college, but could focus on adding more girth. He has a Faried level body and athleticism. He isn't quite the rebounder, but 11 boards in 29 minutes is not too shabby.

Daniel has improved on his numbers drastically this year and he credits it to the confidence he gained in the all-star camps he attended with Canaan over the summer. He only grabbed 5.5 boards in 24 minutes just last year. This kind of improvement on the glass is something that is unprecedented.

Isaiah Canaan was battling with an injury in this game, but got hot in the second half to bring Murray State into the lead. After a quiet first half, he ended up finishing with 28 points. Canaan doesn't need to be fully healthy to score - all he needs is enough room to get his jump shot off. And thats not a lot of room. Canaan has grown used to the opposition switching on the pick and roll and leaving him to shoot over a big man. The opposition knows Canaan prefers to shoot than drive, so the switching makes sense, but Canaan has adjusted. Next to Deshaun Thomas, he is probably the best shooter in the country when it comes to off-balanced, contested jumpers.

Lehigh vs VCU

For the second time, CJ McCollum let down scouts that flocked to see him play. The first time was when he sat out against North Texas, this time McCollom broke his foot in the first half and is now potentially out the entire regular season.

In the 15 minutes McCollom did play, he was 0-5 from the field. VCU gave him a heavy dose of the havoc defense each time he touched the ball and essentially took him out of the game even before he got hurt. Lehigh still tried to keep getting him the ball, but he was unable to find the open men under the duress of the defense. Once McCollom was forced to the bench, Lehigh actually was able to develop some rhythm since they didn't continue to look for CJ in double teams. They ended up giving VCU a game, eventually losing 59-55. 

Maryland vs Virginia Tech

Maryland 94, Virginia Tech 71

This was a statement game for the Terrapins, and even though I'm a bit bias, this is a team that is severely underrated. They can play effectively big or small and are well balanced on both ends of the court. They also have a good mix of veterans and new players.

Dez Wells has been key for the Terps, acting as the playmaker on offense and stopper defensively. He is impossible to keep out of the lane and has the body type and athleticism to be an elite finisher at the rim. Right now shooting is his only Achilles' heel, but he looks like a future first rounder.

Alex Len continues to show an excellent feel and arsenal in the post. He had 16 points and 9 rebounds in just 24 minutes. The thing about Maryland is they can focus their offense around him, but are equally deadly with him off the court. Len did have some problems with the physical play of Cadarian Raines, but it was a positive start in his mission to prove he is for real.

Maryland's freshman class is special. Seth Allen and Charles Mitchell were the two unheralded prospects from the class, but have made the biggest impact. Allen is very quick, but plays under control. He can get to the rim, pullup in the mid-range area, and stretch the defense out with his jumper. He also can transition back and forth from passer to scorer with ease.

Mitchell has earned his way into the starting lineup over senior James Padgett thanks to his ability as a rebounder. He has been one of the best in the country so far and will only get better as his conditioning improves. Turgeon says he doesn't always give 100% in practice so once he learns how to prepare himself and his body, he could be a scary force. Mitchell is a name to watch in the coming years as he plays himself into good shape.

The two top freshman from their class were Jake Layman and Shaq Cleare. Cleare was a top 50 recruit who has been outplayed by Mitchell so far, but has still contributed well himself. He doesn't have the same rebounding range as Mitchell, but has been on the receiving end of some thunderous dunks. For Layman, he got the start in the backcourt against the Hokies, creating all kinds of matchup problems. He was on Team USA's U-18 team over the summer. He's a guy the Terps will need in ACC play to stretch the defense with his shooting. Saturday was his best performace as he notche 15 points in the first half, finishing with 20.

For Virginia Tech, Erick Green managed to get 28 points even in a 94-71 route. He capitalizes on every opportunity to push the ball in transition he can get. Green is a guy who struggles with a man right in his face and Pe'Shon Howard bothered him at times. But if you get him running in transition or with the ball around a screen, he is deadly. Despite his 28 points, it seemed like the Terps kept him in check and prevented him from dictating any type of tempo. He only had 2 assists to go along with his 2 turnovers.