Tuesday, December 11, 2012

Matthew Dellavedova and the St. Mary's Offense

When talking about St. Mary's you have to start with Matthew Dellavedova and when you speak of Dellavedova, you have to talk about St. Mary's offense. Dellavedova's game revolves around the pick and roll and St. Mary's revolves around their senior point guard so naturally, the Gaels start off the majority of each offensive possession with their star getting a high screen at the top of the arc.

Dellavedova is the catalysts of the St. Mary's offense, even when he isnt putting up huge numbers, the team is always relying on him for their open looks. It all starts with him in the pick and roll where he looks to distribute first and foremost.

Dellavedova is a good passer and has nice size for a point guard, allowing him to see the whole court when working at the top of the arc. He stays under control attacking the pick and roll, rarely driving into the lane - instead attacking JUST far enough to draw the second defender.

This is where the offense starts for St. Mary's - a team with only one shot creator - Dellavedova. Dellavedova's first pass to the open man is the start of getting the opposition of balance. They can get a shot early a lot of times off his pass, but the Gaels are more patience than that. They are a team of ball movers, with no ball stoppers to be found. Dellavedova's first move to draw the defense gets them off balance and the rest of his teammates build off his momentum by keeping the other team scurrying to open men by continuing to move the ball. They take after their

When things are going good, its a simple matter of "Where's Waldo" - Brad Waldow that is, who manages to benefit from the ball movement with surprisingly open looks in the lane.

Dellavedova controls the pace of the game and also controls himself.

The offense is far from spectacular but is some kind of efficient machine. Dellavedova is able to create things out of this offense without forcing bad passes or overdribbling and he relieves his teammates from having to do that too. That is why St. Mary's rarely turns the ball over and has been that way since Dellavedova has been in charge.

Its really a recipe for winning a lot in the regular season. And it doesn't help that the one shot creator is a legitimate contender to post 50/40/90 shooting numbers. Yea, I suppose it would be good to mention his deadly shooting at this point.

Dellavedova is the magician of all of this though - he's not just a system player. He has a lot of saavy to his game and is creative in delivering passes to his teammates. He is one of the best jump passers in the nation. He has a good mid-range game, sporting a quick floater that looks more like a flick shot. He's done a ton of work to his body over the years. This season he came in looking like a workout warrior, sporting a new, ripped physique.

And his body isn't for show. He has used his new found strength to show off an advanced post game. He's been a great scorer from there, but ironically enough, its passing out of doubles teams from the post that he's struggled with.

For Dellavedova his main weakness on the offensive end is his ability to get to the lane for easy buckets. And it shows in his overall field goal percentage. He can go stretches of games without getting a lay-up and did so against Pacific and Georgia Tech to name two recent games.

Overall, Dellavedova is a great college player and has an outside shot at the NBA. Ultimately, I'd expect to see him find his way back to Australia, although his game would fit the Europe well too. 

Wednesday, December 5, 2012

Catching Up With Tony Mitchell

Much has been made of Tony Mitchell's slow start so far this season. Coming off a game where he only got off one shot, many people questioned how that was even possible.

I watched tonight's game, the game after his one shot performance, and he scored 18 points on 7-12 shooting. It was a solid performance for Mitchell as well as his team, who managed to hang in with St. Louis until the buzzer, losing 67-63. Mitchell had 14 first half points then had to sit out much of the second half with foul trouble. Once he was inserted back into the lineup, his teammates didn't even look to get him the ball.

Sort of perplexing. North Texas as a whole is perplexing. Heading into this game, they were shooting 26% from 3-pt range yet fared better against zone defenses.

I had two hypothesis for this - one is simple, the more inferior teams on North Texas ran zone against them in attempt to limit Mitchell. This makes plenty of sense.

The other could have to do with the amount of double teams Mitchell receives. Whenever Mitchell gets the ball in the post, he is automatically doubled - creating open looks for teammates outside the arc. So North Texas may actually get more 3-pt looks against man to man defense.

Fascinating.

More fascinating may be how first year North Texas coach Tony Benford has used Mitchell - or hasn't used him. It is tough being a coach of a lottery big man on a team of below average, shot happy guards. There is a lot of pressure to feature Mitchell, but it is something that also would help the team win.

Another thing Benford has to deal with is his center - Tony Mitchell - preferring to showcase his small forward skills to NBA scouts. Or his lack of them. You know what they say about guys trying to prove they can do something: they usually prove instead that they can't do it.

Mitchell may have another reason however of floating outside. The double teams. Mitchell can't show his post game because he is swarmed after each touch. When Mitchell parks himself in the post, you can tell it is hard for him to stay in the game mentally. Not only because of the double teams, but because of his teammates' idolization of their own offensive games.

And so is it best to park Mitchell down there? Sure he creates open looks, but he doesn't get to shoot himself. And as mentioned before, North Texas can't hit threes.

So that is what brings Mitchell out around the perimeter. Its a big conundrum and it wouldn't be a problem on a more talented team.

Mitchell faces tough defense off the ball all game and doesn't know how to get open off the ball. He gets some 3-pt shots by trailing in transition and popping on pick and rolls. He gets some putback attempts and throws down some alley-oops. And then there are the times he tries to create offense for himself - a very mixed bag.

His offensive game is somewhat like Andre Roberson's. Both are athletic freaks trying to prove themselves on the perimeter, yet have terrible footwork and decision making skills on the perimeter. They both shuffle their feet, rethink every step, and rely on their first step completely. And both of them can actually hit the 3-pt shot, although it can be ugly. The 3-pt shot gives them better driving opportunities due to strong defensive close outs.

Besides Roberson being 4 months older, Mitchell also is the better prospect because of his strength and his mid-range game potential. Mitchell's frame is much better than Roberson's and allows him to finish in contact and also work more inside. Mitchell's mid-range game actually looks good, as he is creative with his dribble and his jumpshot looks much better from 18 feet in. Mitchell has much more of an offensive mindset than Roberson and thus has more potential in the area. He can be dangerous setting up from the mid-range area with both the jumper and the drive. Mitchell can also post up, but his footwork and balance in these situations make for some ugly looking shots at time.

Mitchell's play pick up once conference play starts and his guards get to face competition more of their level. Same deal I said for Robert Covington who has struggled early. Mitchell's stock has taken a slight dip since the season has began, but he is one of the best athletes in this very weak draft. Believe it or not, he still could even have an outside shot at the #1 pick. His potential is that high.

Monday, December 3, 2012

More Thoughts From the Weekend Games

I'm still pouring over games from the weekend, as it was jammed packed full up hoops action. I just want to get some of my thoughts down as I continue to dissect the play of certain prospects.

UNC vs UAB

- This was a typical North Carolina game where they just used their talent to run their opponent off the court. A 18 point win over UAB doesn't mean anything other than they are more talented than the Blazers. We know that. The questions about UNC are still as prominent as ever.

- One of those questions is their scoring options, which I've been harping on since the summer. But another problem is their big men. McAdoo is obviously their best big and he's not living up to expectations. Brice Johnson has been a pleasant surprise, but he can't hold his own inside. He's the type of player UNC usually has the luxury of not playing during his freshman year.

While those two may be the best bigs UNC has (which is lightyears away from the Zeller/Henson frontline of last year), they are both finesse bigs that are already getting pushed around. Once ACC play starts, this problem will be even more evident.

Joel James got the start against UAB over Desmond Hubert, but only logged 12 minutes. He fumbled a few passes and was unable to defend UAB's face up big men so he quickly got yanked. Hubert only played 7 minutes and it actually was the best 7 minutes I've seen out of him.

Thats UNC's big man rotation. A overhyped sophomore who can't handle the expectations, a skinny freshman who can't handle inside play, a big man still trying to get in shape, and Hubert who was signed purely for depth.

James will get better and he is the guy they need to step up during ACC play. He's shown flashes of brilliance at times. Johnson has the quick catch and shoot turnaround jumper down to a science, but the rest of his game is very raw. He is just way too weak to be an effective ACC player at this point.

- In the UAB game, McAdoo hit quite a few jumpers which was the most promising thing about his performance Saturday. And those jumpers weren't just the typical 10 footers he hits. He showed range out to 18 feet and had to have hit at least 4 or 5. His favorite spot seems to be on the left baseline.

Other than that, McAdoo continues to turn it over a lot - 6 times against the Blazers. Its not that McAdoo makes bad decisions or is a poor ball handler for a big man, I think its mainly because of his lack of strength. He is very soft with the ball in his hands. He gets pushed around inside leaving him off balance and vulnerable to turning it over. Its something that I realized would be a problem last year when watching him rebound. He has a solid frame but the strength and toughness (both mental and physical) isn't there yet.

- In other news, Reggie Bullock has started to put the ball on the floor to create shots. It will never be his game and we are seeing so-so results, but somebody has to step up and its good to see he's trying. Bullock will be a solid pro because of his 3-pt shooting and defense, but being able to keep the defense honest with the rest of his game could help him become a starter at the next level.

- PJ Hairston is still settling for too many jumpers. I'm not sure if injuries have limited his athleticism or lack of conditioning, but he's not as dynamic as he was supposed to be coming out of high school. He's a steaky chucker at this point.

Creighton vs St. Joe's

This game was expected to be closer, but the Blue Jays blew the doors off the Hawks early for the 80-51 win. The first half wasn't pretty for the Hawks, who watched McDermott go off for 17 in about the first ten minutes. Ronald Roberts Jr also had to sit out most of the first half with two fouls.

In the second half, St. Joe's played them much better. St. Joe's should be fine moving forward, one bad half doesn't change their promising outlook that has them favorite to win their conference.

- Some view CJ Aiken as a second round pick this year but I just don't see it. So far he is having a worse season in pretty much every way than the year before. The biggest thing though is he is so skinny. His body hasn't changed at all and his narrow shoulders aren't going to ever allow for much weight. Gregory Echenique  looked twice as wide as him and abused him inside.

Aiken is a very springy athlete and quick laterally. He gets a lot of blocks even when giving up deep post position. He is a Jarvis Varnado kind of defender - except not has long or dominant blocking shots. Aiken also seems interested in playing some small forward, but has no ball skills to speak of. Plus, he is 4-21 from behind the arc this season. I talked about Brice Johnson earlier - Aiken is Brice Johnson in two years if he doesn't gain any weight.

- St. Joe's best prospect in my opinion is actually Ronald Roberts Jr. He didn't have a very good game against Creighton - having as many TOs as points (3), but he is much more of a true post player than Aiken. He has a good feel with his back to the basket and teammates seem to like getting him the ball. They know he will get the ball back to them if he can't get a good shot and he can help them get open looks. He also shows a nice 15 foot jumper and solid footwork. He sports a chiseled frame that can handle added weight and he's been a great rebounder this season.

Roberts won't get enough work inside this season to get noticed, but he could breakout in his senior season. Roberts doesn't have a high ceiling, but he could work his way into the second round or at least a Portsmouth invite next season.

Pittsburgh vs Detroit

For awhile, it looked like Detroit would win this game. They entered the first half up by 8, but Jamie Dixon made some nice adjustments at the half to eventually win the game 74-61. Part of it was slowing down Ray McCallum Jr who had 17 first half points. His first bucket in the second half, a three, didn't come until about ten minutes into play.

- Ive seen McCallum four times this season now, and so far, he's doing his best CJ McCollom impersonation by handling the scoring for Detroit. And really, he's doing it just as good as CJ. Which makes me wonder how some people can list McCollom as a lottery pick yet have McCallum in the second round.

McCallum has proved his jumper can be just as lethal as CJ's and he is just as good at getting it off with his quick release and ankle-breaking crossover move. And with Ray, there is no question about whether he can play point guard at the next level - that is what he does. This season he is just proving he can step into the scoring role and its been a seamless transition. I'm not knocking McCollom, I'm more wondering where the love is for Ray. He is a sure fire first round pick in my opinion that should get consideration in the top 20. Maybe even higher.

- Steven Adams only played 12 minutes and scored 2 points. He had a tough matchup on Minnerath, who is a big man who likes to step out on the perimeter. Adams has gone through the process of getting his feet wet and feeling out the waters. He looked afraid of having the ball int he first few games and now is working in the paint like he actually wants to receive a pass. His 2 points came on a nice post up play where he got nice position and turned quickly over his shoulder for an easy bucket. His teammates looked to get him the ball more, but he didn't do a good job sealing off his position and keeping his defender behind him in the post. Most of the entry passes to him ended up being broken up.

There is no doubt Adams has plenty of work to do and has to become more aggressive getting the ball and using his body. This goes for rebounding too. Adams should be a beast on the boards, but his skills look very poor at this point. He doesn't react quickly, struggled to catch the ball, and doesn't hold onto the ball well when he does. He rarely rebounds outside his area.

If there is one thing Adams needs to prove he can do this season, its rebound. Scouts will be patient with the rest of the game.

Speaking of scouts, Sam Presti was on hand for the Pitt vs Detroit game. He has a reason to be looking at Adams as OKC owns Toronto's probable lottery pick. Presti is always looking for a big enforcer inside and Adams is right down his alley. Presti also had to like the scoring he saw out of McCallum and Talib Zanna's continued success. Zanna's play so far definitely warrants a second round pick.

Sunday, December 2, 2012

Shabazz Muhammad vs Jamaal Franklin

In a battle against dynamic shooting guards, the elder Jamaal Franklin came out on top of the highly touted Shabazz Muhammad. Experience prevailed over youth in the game as well, as UCLA fell to San Diego State 78-69. UCLA hung with SDSU through the first half, but the Aztecs got hot from deep to bury UCLA in the second half. Franklin finished with 28 points and Shabazz had 16.

This was my second look at Franklin this year. The first time was on a boat against Syracuse's 2-3 zone which wasn't an ideal situation to scout him. Franklin struggled badly to get anything going in that game and had a lot of bad turnovers. Last night, Franklin had a much easier time against UCLA's version of the 2-3 zone, as one would expect.

Early on Franklin acted as a facilitator and did a nice job getting his teammates involved with some quality finds. His teammates didn't help him out much by converting (Franklin finished with only 3 assists), but his 1/2 A/TO ratio doesn't illustrate how he played. In fact, this was one of the best games I've seen Franklin play. He was under control for the most part and played with a lot of fire.

He got hot at the end of the 1st half from 3 and ended up looking for his own shot more in the second half. He chucked quite a few 3s in the final 20 minutes, but nothing out of his role. SDSU needs him to be an aggressive scorer. Franklin cooled off quickly from 3 though, and finished 3-10 from deep on the night.

The rest of Franklin's game consisted of him taking advantage of defenders closing out on him for the 3 and him driving past them. Franklin doesn't have the surest handles in traffic and turns it over a fair amount. He's a guy who could benefit from learning to slow his game down, but probably won't ever get there. He definitely has the capabilities to make spectacular plays throughout the game.

Franklin could be a good player at the next level if he isn't asked to do too much. He is a great athlete, can shoot the ball, create his shot a bit, and finish in transition. He also has good court vision but can be careless passing the ball.

He's a guy who could give a coach headaches, but from all reports, Coach Fisher loves coaching him and raves about his work ethic. His competitiveness and intensity was certainly on display last night and he took on the challenge of defending Shabazz Muhammad. Franklin is a guy who carries a chip on his shoulder and you could tell he wanted to prove that he is the better player.

For one night, he was.

Shabazz struggled for most of the game, despite finishing with 16 points. Jamaal Franklin has a problem with always driving left and its a similarity Shabazz shares as well. Shabazz has had to work very hard for his points this year. He's been forced to run the court in transition and try to muscle shots up in the post instead of creating his offense from the halfcourt on the perimeter.

Part of this is because he is rushing things. Another part is him trying to be too perfect. A bigger part may be that Shabazz just isn't that skilled. The only thing Shabazz has proven to do very well at this point is bully smaller guards.

When you have the athletic ability that Shabazz has, you can slow the game down and force players to play at your pace. You don't need to make hasty decisions as soon as the ball to catch the defense out of position. Shabazz needs to take his time more, measure the defense up in triple threat position, and plan how to attack. He should be able to drive by defenders in isolation sets. If he can't, then it is time to re-evaluate his pro potential.

We aren't at that point yet.

Shabazz looked very average through most of the game, but in the final couple of minutes he finally started to attack from the perimeter. He hit a jumper coming off a screen. He got all the way to the basket. He broke a defender down for a nice floater. That floater is something that he showed off multiple times in the game. He has good touch on it and gets it off quickly - almost flicking it at the basket.

Defensively, Shabazz is still struggling. He looks off balance in his defense stance and was beaten lateral on a few occasions.

Player to Monitor

There was a freshman point forward in this game who has potential to be a first rounder and his name isn't Kyle Anderson. While Anderson has looked like a 4 year player this whole season - looking even slower than advertised and not making enough plays to make up for it - Winston Shepard has looked like a solid prospect.

Shepard can cover multiple positions well (unlike Anderson who can't cover any) and really played great defense last night. He also got the offense into some sets and looked like a potential leader down the road. I like how he can get into the lane and maintain control. He can dribble it in the mid-range area where his height allows him to see over bigs to make easy passes to teammates or take a short jumper himself. Shepard needs his production to come along and he should be in school for at least another year or two, but in my opinion, he's a better prospect than Anderson.


Saturday, December 1, 2012

Scouting Notes: Texas Tech vs Arizona

Arizona headed into this game undefeated and ranked 9th in the country and for most hoops fans, this was their first exposure to them all year.

Texas Tech was also undefeated, but had spend their first 4 games beating up on cupcakes en route to averaging 89 points per game. Plenty of their players enjoyed eye-dropping per40 numbers that were finally put to the test versus the Wildcats.

Arizona ended up blowing out the Red Raiders 85-57 who was led by Nick Johnson's 18 point performance. Arizona has a good pool of draft prospects, but most are viewed as a year or two away. Because of that, Arizona has a bright future that has fans focused on what they could end up doing next year.

The present is now though and with UCLA faltering, Arizona may already be the best team in the west.

Scouting Notes:

Grant Jarrett - Jarrett has plenty of talented and showed potential as a pick and pop player tonight. Defensively, he looked slow laterally - looking much like a big forward than small. Jarrett has a lot of potential moving forward and came to the right place to hone his skills.

Brandon Ashley - Ashley was impressive today, showing a lot of heart and smarts. He can operate in the post and really knows how to use his frame to carve out space down low. He moves well without the ball  and was able to finish on cuts to the rim. This should be a good game to get Ashley going as he struggled with confidence in his first couple of games. He is another guy with good potential down the road.

Kaleb Tarcewzski - Tarcewzski is playing a big role for Arizona's top ten program and as a freshman 7 footer, he surprisingly isn't getting enough attention. Perhaps its east coast bias, but either way Tarcewzski may be the best freshman center in the country so far. His game is much more polished than the likes of Noel and Adams. He knows his role and does it very well. Tarcewzski is a beast on the boards and is tough to move in the paint. He has strong hands and does a good job keeping the ball above his waist - preventing him from getting stripped. Once Tarcewzski gets his hands on a board - its his. The big man also started the break with a nice outlet pass against Texas Tech, something that could be a strength for him. Offensively, Tarcewzski finishes with authority and is very efficient. He gets his team extra possessions and holds his position down low. Arizona doesn't look for him much on offense, but most of the time he is in position for an easy bucket.


Solomon Hill - Hill is the latest player that Sean Miller has seen grow tremendously under his watch. Hill has improved each year and done just about everything scouts have asked of him. He comes into this year in excellent shape, slimmed down 25 pounds since his first time he stepped on campus as a freshman. His improved conditioning level has him looking much more like a small forward prospect, enabling him to move laterally better and show much better activity throughout an entire game.

He has quietly become a very reliable 3-pt shooter, making 48 of 119 threes taken from the beginning of last season. It is obvious Solomon Hill is a gym rat who has put countless hours of work in - perhaps partially motivated by what former teammate Derrick Williams achieved.

In terms of ball handling ability, Hill also now looks very comfortable handling the ball. He has always been a solid straight line driver thanks to a good first step and strong frame, but he now has added some change of direction ability. In the lane, Hill still has his eyes on the rim and does a nice job finishing. He doesn't show much pull-up ability or change of direction in traffic. Then again, with his superior physical tools, he doesn't have to at this level.

Hill also still can take it down in the post and finish through contact as he certainly hasn't lost any strength after slimming down. Hill has done everything in his power to help his stock, but the biggest factor now working against him is his age - he will be 22 in March.

Nick Johnson - At 6'3'' with a modest wingspan, Johnson has the body of a combo guard and the game to match it. He has tremendous athleticism that really renders his average length obsolete on defense, as he can play the passing lanes well. Out in transition is where he thrives, showing off great speed and explosiveness. Johnson understands the value of running the court and gets a lot of easy baskets by running out on offense.

With his size, he definitely needs to be able to initiate offense and play some point guard at the next level. At Findlay Prep, he created offense, but never had to be a pure PG as he played alongside guys like Kabongo and Avery Bradley. There definitely is potential for him here. He is a good decision maker and runs the pick and roll well. Right now, his 5/1 assist to turnover ratio is a great sign moving forward.

Another thing I like about Johnson is his shooting ability. He can stroke it from 3-pt range and also off the dribble inside the arc. Last year, he shot poor percentages, but he should be more comfortable his freshman year. Part of his ineffectiveness last year was due to forcing up shots and with a better supporting cast this season, that won't be a problem.

Dejan Kravic - Kravic transferred to Texas Tech from York University in Canada. In Canada, he was one of the better rebounders and shot-blockers in the country. He is a 6-11 center with a decent 240 pound frame. Kravic acts as a skilled, lefty center and does have a nice shooting touch - hitting 8-10 free throws so far this year. He doesn't use his size as well as he should, choosing to play a game closer to the high post/3-pt area. While not a serious threat from deep, Kravic does have the ability to take centers off the dribble from the perimeter with his left hand. Tonight, he made a nice move to his left and ended up finishing the play with a right handed hook.

He has some skills and plays with good effort, but his offensive game wouldn't be efficient in the NBA. Defensively his motor is good and he can help on pick and rolls, but his shot blocking prowess doesn't seem to be as intimidating in the States. He gets pushed around and needs to show more fight. He is kind of in the mold of a poor man's David Andersen - who largely was a bust in the NBA. Luckily for Kravic, he will have plenty of opportunities overseas and he holds dual citizenship in both Canada and Bosnia.

Jordan Tolbert - A double-double machine, Tolbert plays much bigger than his 6-7 listed height. If anyone learned how to be tough from Billy Gillespie, he's the guy. Unfortunately for Texas Tech, Tolbert committed a lot of dumb fouls in the game and didn't get enough minutes to make an impact. In the first two minutes of the game he scored 4 points (one on a dunk after a teammate drove the lane and drew the defenders and the other on a hook shot), but those ended up being his only buckets of the game. This wasn't a good game to get a look Tolbert, but there will be plenty of more chances to get a look at the sophomore.

Thursday, November 29, 2012

Senior Rankings (1-5) - Withey, McCollom, Plumlee, Covington, and Wolters

1. CJ McCollom - McCollom may be the best scorer in the country and has already had 3 30+ point games this season; the most in Division 1. He has the ability to take over games with his scoring and lead his team to victory over just about any team in the country. My worries with him are his position and his reliance on long 2-pters. He has the highest potential amongst the seniors and the best chance of making me look silly if I don't rank him #1.

2. Jeff Withey - The second best senior? It sounds weird, but Withey has an elite ability to affect games on the defensive end that should make him a good player in the pros. He moves so fluidly for a 7 footer and gets off the court quickly. He has been Kansas's best player so far, even becoming more of a threat on offense. Kansas can't get much penetration so Withey has been a key factor on offense - being relied upon as a part of their inside/out game. He has shown quick moves in the post and has been more aggressive this season. Withey isn't the most talented senior, but he might be the surest bet to walk onto a NBA team and contribute right away.

3. Mason Plumlee - There is part of me that wants to rank Plumlee lower, but its tough with the season he is having. He very well could be National Player of the Year this season and his stock should start soaring. It won't surprise me if he ends up in the lottery. I don't want to split hairs though with his ranking - my main point is if I were a GM, I'd spend my top 20 pick somewhere else. I'd much rather take Jeff Withey outside the top 20 then spend a top 20 pick on Mason. Nothing against him, he's having a great season, I just question how it all translates to the next level. His offense is a lot of face up looks, but he can't shoot. He relies on the drive, but its going to be hard to keep NBA defenses honest if he can't consistent hit the 15 footer. And his post game is still based on his athleticism. And he doesn't even establish deep post position enough to take advantage of it.

Defensively, he's not an imposing threat as an anchor in the middle, yet doesn't have great lateral quickness to be a good defender against power forwards. He's kind of a tweener in a weird way. The positive thing about Plumlee this season is his energy and rebounding - both which will translate into the NBA. That will be how he hangs his hat in the league - as a energy player off the bench.

4. Robert Covington - Ive written about him twice and summed up his game well here. I watched him put up a bad stat line against Minnesota this year, but it wasn't his fault. Covington offers a great amount of intrigue for a senior prospect. He has starter upside, but could also fail to find a role.

5. Nate Wolters - I've also covered Wolters' game twice - here and here. His season so far has done nothing but build his legend and improve his stock. Right now, he has the best numbers statistically among all PG prospects when you look at all the important requirements - points, assists, 2-pt%, 3-pt%, FTA, FT%, rebounds, turnovers, and steals. Every other top point guard prospect has a flaw in one of these areas - Wolters does not. Of course there are more to projecting players than statistics, but stats are a part of the equation. And make no doubt, Wolters fares well on the eye test as well. Because of his weak schedule, each game against legit competition is important, and Wolters has a big game December 4th against Minnesota that should be fun.

Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Preview of Tonight's Action

Tonight marks the start of the ACC/Big Ten Challenge and with all the conference re-alignment, maybe one of the last as its going to start getting hard to keep track of which teams are actually in these conferences.

Games to Watch:

Indiana vs North Carolina 9:30 ESPN

Why not get this one out of the way first? James Michael McAdoo vs Cody Zeller. Two guys that could use a big game to get momentum moving in their direction again. At this point, McAdoo is facing questions about his post skills while Zeller has detractors saying he can't create separation. Both do have nice feel and footwork in the post and that should be on display tonight.

Zeller will have to deal with an athletic North Carolina frontline and also Joel James' monster frame. Don't expect Zeller and McAdoo to be matched up a lot.

McAdoo will likely be on Christian Watford most of the time, a guy he should be able to back down a little. McAdoo was quoted in SI today saying he has been focused more on footwork instead of trying to back down anyone, but tonight would be a good night to try to show some toughness against Watford.

Watford will drag him out to the perimeter and force McAdoo to show his perimeter defense skills. Some actually think McAdoo can play some small forward at the next level, but I highly doubt it.

I'm also interested in seeing Reggie Bullock against Victor Oladipo, two energy small forwards I am really high on. Both play great defense and run the court, but their offensive games couldn't be more different. It will be interesting to see how they compete against each other as they should cover one another.

Finally, it may be Jordan Hulls and PJ Hairston that steal the headlines from the big names. Hairston has came on strong as of late and always looks to shoot when he's in. Hulls is extremely tough and a great leader - one of the best in the country. He's slowly developing a reputation as Indiana's go to guy in big games and could steal the headlines.

North Carolina State vs Michigan 7:30 ESPN

Leading the night off for ESPN will be a matchup that may actually feature more future pros than its nightcap. We have Trey Burke vs Lorenzo Brown, both of whom could be drafted in the first round. Lorenzo Brown has already been abused by the younger Marcus Smart this season and can't afford to get worked again. It may be in the cards though, as Burke has been carving up defenses since he's stepped on campus. With the emergence of other scorers, Im interested to see if Burke starts to vanilla down his game more and turn into more of a facilitator. He can dominate the ball at times.

On the wings, Hardaway Jr is coming off one of the best stretches of his career and Glenn Robinson III looks like a real stud. Hardaway will see a lot of freshman Rodney Purvis, who has been one of the bright spots for NC State early on. He has played with great energy and should present a solid test for Hardaway.

Glenn Robinson III may get a chance to step up into a bigger role tonight if he draws Scott Wood on offense. Robinson has taken a back seat to Michigan's backcourt, but has been very efficient in his chances. A chance to see Robinson III take advantage of Wood in an increased workload would be nice.

Robinson may also see some TJ Warren who has joined Purvis as the lone bright spots for NC State. Warren just has a knack for scoring and getting easy baskets around the hoop. He also has great touch on his jumper. He's one to watch out for down the road.

Inside, Michigan has a very smart frontcourt that could use CJ Leslie's aggressiveness against him. Jordan Morgan and Mitch McGary move their feet well and understand defensive positioning. Leslie could be in for a long night. Richard Howell is usually solid.

One thing to watch for is Michigan's pick and roll defense. They are very aggressive in their hedging and take the ball out of the ball handlers hand, but leave themselves vulnerable to other open players. NC State has shot 3s at a better than 40% clip this season thanks to Scott Wood and Rodney Purvis. If Lorenzo Brown runs the point like he should (which he hasn't) and finds the open man off of picks, NC State has a chance at the upset.

This is a big game for Brown who has found his stock dropping quickly so far. He's talented but has shown terrible decision making and a lack of leadership. From an upperclassman, that is unacceptable.

Minnesota vs Florida State 7:15 ESPN2

Minnesota vaulted themselves into the top 25 after a solid showing in the Battle 4 Atlantis. Florida State has started to play better after opening the season with an ugly loss to South Alabama. Both teams can get after it on defense and it starts with Michael Snaer and Rodney Williams, two of the better players in the country.

And while they can really get after it on defense, its the offensive end where they will need to show what they can do tonight. Snaer has been great at getting to the line all year and I'd like to see him do it against a strong perimeter defense and the always lurking Williams. For Rodney, Id just like to see him continue to hit jumpers and attack aggressively from the perimeter. We know his skills aren't great, but he's done a nice job putting his athleticism to use this year.

There are some other marginal prospects in this game - Ian Miller, Andre Hollins, Austin Hollins, and Okaro White - and they all should have some chances to go up against each other. Andre Hollins just dropped 41 points on Memphis and he should be over the hangover of elated-ness that caused him to only score 8 against Stanford.

Also, Trevor Mbakwe will be continued to be monitored to see how his athleticism is coming along. He's coming off the best game of his young season.

Also check out Maryland's Alex Len take on Northwestern and Pittsburgh and Steven Adams against Howard. Maryland has been playing well and should get the win, but Alex Len hasn't had another game that has rivaled his opening performance against Kentucky.

Adams received criticism for his recent play, but its all part of a process. Adams wasn't any worse than he was when I wrote about him at the start of the year, he just went up against some tougher competition. He actually has been showing noticeable improvements each game.

His 13 points in 24 minutes last game against Delaware are misleading as most of his points came in the final minutes, but the confidence that it gives him could be big. Adams was able to hit a jumper and finish in transition and off of a pick and roll. He showed the flashes that make his potential so mouth watering. Facing Howard tonight is good timing, as Dixon can use this game to focus on building off that confidence Adams gained from last game. I expect tonight to be the best chance to see what Adam's is capable of doing so far. He is going to continue to get better each game. His stock is fine.