Sunday, January 6, 2013

Notes on Otto Porter vs Marquette

Marquette 49, Georgetown 48

This was a tight game the whole way through between two great defensive teams. Both are tough to drive on - for Georgetown it is because of their length, while Marquette's defenders have quick hands that create a lot of steals. This was more of a great defensive battle that was fun to watch as opposed to an ugly offensive affair.

Otto Porter finished with 13 points and lead the Hoyas with 13 shot attempts. He was able to get a lot of good looks in the mid-range area, where he is generally very successful with his jumper. Porter isn't a guy who creates these mid-range looks with the ball in his hands, instead he has an old school approach where he actually spots up from 15-18 feet. He has no problem getting his shot off in this area with his quick, high release. Porter also gets mid-range looks off curls and post up opportunities. He has solid fundamentals in the post and can hit contested turnaround jumpers.

His ball handling isn't very creative and he lacks an explosive first step. On a couple of occasions, he had trouble creating any kind of space against Jamil Wilson. Porter's go-to off the dribble move is a behind the back move, which is mainly only successful in creating a small space for jumpers.

When he does get penetration, Porter is a great passer and has the length and smoothness to finish at the rim - but again, he isn't very explosive. One thing I like about Porter is that he is always around the boards when the shot goes up and looking for someone to box out. There are a lot of parts that scream "old school" about his game and his toughness is one of them. It goes back to the days of pickup basketball against his dad and uncles.

Defensively, Porter is a great team defender who creates problems with his feel for the game and length. He stuffs the box score with steals and blocks. He is versatile and can cover just about anyone in the college game. In the NBA, his versatility, IQ, and length should make him an above average defender although he will struggle more with the spacing of the NBA game. He is not especially quick laterally.

Vander Blue - Blue continues to hit jumpers this year, a new development in his game. He takes some extremely tough, acrobatic shots and has a knack for making them. These high percentage shots aren't ideal, but certainly show his talent. He needs to be a much more reliable threat spotting up though. He's like a wide receiver who makes the highlight reel plays, but struggles to make the routine plays consistently.

After a strong game against UConn, Junior Cadougan couldn't make anything vs Georgetown. Cadougan is the heart and soul of the offense and as he goes, so does the scoring. He still was able to manage the game as always though, and helped Marquette squeeze out an ugly win.

Trent Lockett has struggled finding his role with his new team, but played one of his best games thus far, grabbing 10 rebounds. He should become more of a factor in the physical battles that the Big East brings.

Saturday, January 5, 2013

Saturday's Viewing Schedule

No time for anything else this morning, although it was good to see Adonis Thomas aggressive last night. Here are games that will keep your Saturday busy:

Pittsburgh at Rutgers 11am ESPN2
Virginia Tech at Maryland 12pm ESPN3
Wake Forest at Duke 12pm ESPNU
Seton Hall at Notre Dame 12pm ESPN3
Oklahoma State at Kansas State 1:30pm ESPN3
Texas at Baylor 2pm ESPNU
Green Bay at Detroit 2pm ESPN3
Georgetown at Marquette 2pm ESPN3
Ohio State at Illinois 2:30pm B1GNetwork
Indiana State at Creighton 3pm ESPN3
Stanford at UCLA 3pm Pac-12 Network
Florida State at Clemson 4pm ESPN3
Bucknell at Missouri 4pm ESPN3
St. John's at Cincinnati 4pm ESPNU
Oklahoma at West Virginia 4pm ESPN3
North Carolina State at Boston College 4pm ESPN2
Lehigh at Virginia Commonwealth 5pm NBCSN
South Dakota State at South Dakota 5pm
Gonzaga at Santa Clara 8pm ROOT Sports
Louisiana-Monroe at North Texas 8pm
Northern Iowa at Illinois State 8pm
Washington at Washington State 9:30 ESPNU
BYU at San Francisco 10pm
California at USC 11pm Fox Sports

Thursday, January 3, 2013

Mid-Majors Shine Together

As a draft blogger, you grow attached to certain teams. Of course, you watch the same big schools that everyone else does. The Blue Devils, Kentucky, and the Jayhawks. But you also watch the same small schools over and over again and find yourself getting to know not only their star player, but the rest of the team as well. Not only do you want to see these schools make the NCAA tournament in order to evaluate them on a bigger stage, but also because you start to become a fan of the school. For most small schools with NBA prospects, this is a rare opportunity for exposure and it is fun to be along for the ride with them.

Among the teams that I have found myself watching over and over again this year are North Texas, South Dakota State, Murray State, Detroit, Bucknell, Illinois State, Creighton, and Lehigh. There are other schools as well - Long Beach State and James Ennis, Davidson, Drexel, and Tennessee State.

Tonight, quite a few of the prominent mid/low-major schools were in action. North Texas played Troy and got their first conference win after starting off 0-2. Now, Troy is the worst team in the Sun Belt so it is no reason to get excited for the simple fact that they got the victory. But Tony Mitchell had his best game of the season - scoring 29 points and adding 15 rebounds. Mitchell is capable of these performances against any Sun Belt team, but it is more impressive how he did it. He was the aggressive Tony Mitchell we've been waiting to see all season. He got to the line 12 times, blocked 4 shots, and finally took advantage of easy points in transition by running the court. North Texas's offense had a sense of rhythm to it that has been rare this season. Granted it was Troy, but this is a good blueprint for them to follow for the rest of the season.

The attitude of North Texas fans towards Mitchell is a mixed bag, with a lot of fans disappointed in his effort so far this season. He's not the typical low-major star where he is worshiped on campus. He has his fair share of detractors.

Out in South Dakota, however, they live and breath Jackrabbits basketball because of Nate Wolters. Wolters has been a major part of the program for 4 seasons and is looking to get his team back into the NCAA tournament for the second straight season. They improved to 2-1 in the Summit League with their blowout victory over UMKC tonight (nicknamed the Kangaroos). Wolters was a big part of it - scoring 23 points and also providing 7 helpers. He didn't take over the game in a dominating sense. But he did control the game and its pace. The game moves slower for him than the rest of the players and he does a good job manipulating angles to get inside and show off his floater game. He also made a series of nice passes and delivered them in crafty ways. Now, I've been holding off on comparing him to any NBA player but I've had a guy in mind the entire time - Jeremy Lin. I've been hesitant to say it because of all the other things that are associated with Lin.

But if you look back at Lin at Harvard, you will see the similarities. Neither was a great shooter, but both were excellent in the pick and roll game because of their ability to play at their own pace. They are average athletes, attackers, have good touch inside, play with confidence, struggle defensively, and have similar slow release jumpshots. Lin was never looked at as much of a NBA player but obviously put in a lot of work between college and the Knicks to get to where he is now. Wolters is no stranger to work and has Lin's roadmap to the NBA to follow.

Also in action was Detroit who handled Milwaukee to advance to 1-0 in Horizon League play. Ray McCallum had a modest 13 points, but also helped out with 7 rebounds and 6 assists. McCallum is viewed as a second rounder at best on DraftExpress, but I see him as a very good backup point guard that is capable of starting for some teams - a less crafty Eric Maynor type. I highlighted McCallum's notable plays from tonight in the video below. I must say, he hasn't shown a lot of versatility in his game for much of this season. He's settling for 3s while being very good out in transition. We know he is capable of other things though, and has been impressive at times - such as the 2nd half against Syracuse.


In other action, Long Beach State lost a tough one to Cal Poly 79-73. Both teams look like contenders to win the Big West's automatic bid, but I'm rooting for LBSU in order to see Ennis in at least one more high profile game. He had 22 points and 5 blocks tonight.

Tennessee State advanced to 2-0 in the Ohio Valley Conference, despite Patrick Miller and Robert Covington being out. Covington has been out for both wins and figures to miss 4 to 6 more weeks after his recent knee surgery. Tennessee State didn't look like a good team in non-conference play, so their start is a bit surprising. Although, this is the OVC.

Still, Tennessee State will need to win their conference tournament and they will have a tough time upsetting Murray State. The Racers held off TSU in last year's championship game and the talent gap between the two teams has widened. Murray State may be more dangerous than last year's team with even more experience and the emergence of Ed Daniel. They picked up their first OVC win tonight against Tennessee-Martin.

Video: Michael Snaer's Double Double vs Auburn

Florida State has been bad this season and a 78-72 loss to Auburn last night doesn't make things any better. Ian Miller has been hurt and played ten minutes last night from injury and they need him healthy for ACC play. Without him, Michael Snaer is not only expected to lead them defensively but offensively as well.

Snaer does a lot of things well and is an intriguing prospect. His defense is already NBA caliber - possessing good length and lateral quickness, and a keen understanding of positioning.

Offensively, Snaer does a lot of things well. For the second straight year, he is a 40%+ shooter from behind the arc and 80%+ from the free throw line. He has nearly doubled his rate of getting to the line so far this year, finally putting his first step and fluidity to use. He's also explosive at the rim and is seen completing a backdoor alley-oop in the video below.

Snaer's efficiency on offense is hurt by the fact that he is being asked to do it all for Florida State. But in a smaller role, Snaer is a guy who can do a little bit of everything on both ends. From passing, rebounding (he had 12 against Auburn), getting into the lane, and lighting it up from outside - Snaer has an NBA game.

Wednesday, January 2, 2013

Illinois State Loses to Creighton; Down 0-2 in Conference

After tonight's loss to Creighton, Illinois State is now 9-5 overall and has suffered two straight losses to begin Missouri Valley play. They were very much in their last two games and also came up just short in losses to Northwestern and Louisville. With only a win over Dayton to be proud of, this solid Illinois State team now has their back against the wall and will need to go on a conference tournament run in order to appear in the NCAAs. This a tournament quality team that has the makeup of a Cinderella, but their backs are now against the wall.

In the Missouri Valley, it is all about the team, but this game was attended by a lot of NBA scouts to see Doug McDermott against Jackie Carmichael inside. Neither covered each other as Echenique was in charge of handling Carmichael and Illinois State refused to play McDermott straight up. Carmichael finished with 10 points while McDermott had a quiet 15.

Neither brought their "A" games tonight, but were big parts of keeping their teams in it despite of it. Illinois State opened up the game by consciously leaving facilitator Grant Gibbs open. It turned out to be a mistake as Gibbs was able to hit open jumpers and make smart decisions. After abandoning that look, Illinois State decided to throw a 2-3 zone at Creighton for the rest of the game - another thing Grant Gibbs exploited. Grant Gibbs proved he is no slouch tonight. He is a coach on the floor type, but if you allow him to make decisions, you can bet he will make the right ones. Going up against the zone, Gibbs was the guy who was able to get into the holes of the defense and find teammates cutting to the rim. Illinois State lacked the length on the wings to contest these shots and left Carmichael in hopeless situations. Man to man defense would have been Illinois State's best bet tonight, not a zone that got torched from both inside and outside the arc.

The defensive schemes Illinois State played asked a lot of Carmichael as a rim protector and put him in some bad situations. He picked up 3 fouls - all while Illinois State was in the zone. The fouls weren't the reason Carmichael only played 29 minutes though. I don't quite understand that one. He was taken out of the game 5 times and wasn't given a chance to establish a rhythm. Illinois State's guards jacked up a lot of quick 3s and they didn't slow down to get set plays for Carmichael. It took until the final minute for them to realize that they could have done some damage with their senior power forward in the pick and roll situation. Carmichael is at his best when setting screens or quickly slipping away.

This down game for Carmichael does allow me to talk about some of his negatives though. I've been busy hyping him up and trying to get people to recognize him to criticize parts of his game that need work.

Just by looking at the numbers, his bad assist to turnover ratio jumps out. For a guy who is under control in the post, has good skills, doesn't get pushed around, and plays smart this is a bit surprising. He does a nice job passing too. But Carmichael will occasionally try to force a drive from outside of 15 feet which rarely ends well. He also struggles to get separation in the post which results in getting the ball stripped more than he should. Overall. turnovers happen when you are such a focal point inside.

The lack of separation gets to me though. Its not that he can't create separation - he has good footwork and skills in the post, is quick, and has the body to carve out space. It is just how he chooses to take his shots. On fadeaway type shots, Carmichael doesn't actually fadeaway, instead he turns around and goes straight up. And then on plays where he should be aggressive and not fadeaway, he leans his upperbody in, but keeps his arms out in front of him - rendering his strong frame useless. If Carmichael learned the mechanics of the fadeaway jumper as well as learned the way to properly use his strength when shooting, his offensive game would be more consistent. The way he goes about it now, it looks like he is too conscious of trying to draw contact than to create open looks for himself.

Carmichael is now 9-27 from the field in conference play. Their next game is against Northern Iowa who did a great job being physical with Anthony Bennett earlier this season.

Duke vs Davidson

Duke vs Davidson

You can call this one the Curry Bowl as Seth Curry faces his brother's old team for the second time. Personally, I like watching two great coaches go up against each other. Both teams run a lot of sets, play a lot of players, and have a balanced offensive attack. Coach K obviously has more talent at his disposal, but McKillop always does great with what he has.

McKillop does have one solid prospect in De'Mon Brooks. He's the prototype for face up college power forwards these days - possessing very good athleticism, a strong frame, and good ability off the bounce. Him and the rest of Davidson threw off Mason Plumlee's game with their physicality. The brought sneaky double teams on the weakside and forced Duke's big men to make quick decisions - something Plumlee struggled with. Plumlee finished with 6 turnovers and only 10 points on the night.

Ryan Kelly did a much better job dealing with Davidson's aggressive defense. He fought back in the post, played under control, and used their aggressiveness against them. Kelly has a series of ball fakes he uses and a very good feel in the post. He takes his time and is able to get a decent look at the basket whenever he gets a touch. He makes good decisions with the ball and plays good man to man defense as well. You feel comfortable when he has the ball - more comfortable than you'd feel about Mason Plumlee to be honest.

De'Mon Brooks dealt with Duke's height by forcing them to play in space and attacking them off the dribble. He knows how to finish inside, taking the ball right at the chest of bigger defenders. Brooks has good touch with either hand near the rim and stays under control. He also does a nice job utilizing pump fakes as well as a spin move when facing up off the dribble. He thrives as a undersized power forward. Defensively, he is disciplined, strong, and uses his above average length well. He is well coached on that end of the floor and is a very good help defender.

On the perimeter, Duke's guards defended very well tonight - namely Quinn Cook, Rasheed Sulaimon, and Tyler Thornton. Cook has been solid all season since gaining his confidence against Kentucky and stood out tonight. He did a good job getting in the paint and finishing with floaters or kicking it back out on the perimeter.

As for Sulaimon, he filled up the box score with seven rebounds and 6 made free throws. He was only 1-6 from the floor though, despite his aggressive play. He looked to push the ball in transition off of rebounds and did his best work their. In the halfcourt though, he struggled getting all the way to the rim. He has a solid first step, but lacks explosiveness after that. He has to dribble way too much on his way to the rim - at times he will put the ball on the floor for 5 dribbles - the best drivers get to the rim with 2. When you get Sulaimon dancing with the ball on his way to the hoop, turnovers and bad shots are the two most likely outcomes. Sulaimon needs to go back to uses his jumpshot to set up his drives instead of the other way around. He is a good all-around player, but shouldn't feature himself as a pure slasher.

Tuesday, January 1, 2013

Cody Zeller vs Iowa (Video)

Cody Zeller and Indiana traveled to Iowa City for their first conference game of the year against Iowa. Conference play means that no game will be easy - and this game certainly was not for the Hoosiers. They have been less than impressive when outside of Assembly Hall thus far.

Zeller put forth a solid effort finishing with 19 points (7-12 shooting) and 10 rebounds. The little things that he does are what I like best. He isn't able to get every rebound, but will do whatever he can to get his hand on it to tip it to a teammate. And his awareness on the defensive end is top notch. Zeller doesn't have the length or athleticism as some other big men prospects, but his understanding of positioning is unmatched.

Zeller was passive at times in this game, but Indiana did a good job continuing to get the ball through him. They ran a lot of set plays and you could tell they were stressing getting him the ball coming out of dead ball situations. He does a great job in pick and roll situations, especially when he decides to slip the screen. He played with patience and was anything but a black hole on offense.

While the youngest Zeller brother is having a good season, his stock has begun to drop a bit simply because he lacks the upside of a top 5 pick. This isn't a surprise - Zeller was a placeholder at the top of mock drafts until new names emerged and earned their spots during the season.