Lincoln vs Patterson

Over the weekend, I had the pleasure of attending a ultra-competitive high school game at Towson University between Patterson High School (MD) and Lincoln High School (NY). The game ended up going into overtime and each team's stars came through with applaud-able efforts.

The last time I saw Patterson play was during last years State Championship game where they took on North Point. After watching Carr then, I wrote this report on him. Everything I wrote then still remains true, but after another experience watching this kid, I can say that he is the most exciting high school player I have seen to date for sure.

One concerning thing was how he was demanding the ball during crunch time. On a few possessions in OT he stood around the arc with a man shadowing him and didnt even attempt to work his way to the ball. Patterson could have won the game if Carr made more of an effort to get the ball because when he have the rock, he was unstoppable getting to the hoop.

During the state championship game last year, he settled for more threes than he should have as that isn't his strong point. In this game, he focused more on getting to the hoop and taking advantage of his outstanding speed, explosiveness, and body control. He made Sebastian Telfair's younger brother look silly on a number of occasions, culminating with this move here, 

On another note, Carr has only made 1 3-pt shot this year out of 22 attempts. He was money from the FT line against Lincoln (16-20), but his overall shot needs a lot of work. 

Telfair was one big name for Lincoln, but their best player was hands down sophomore Isaiah Whitehead. The 6'4 shooting guard had 11 less points than Carr (36 compared to 25), but showcased the complete game that has scouts calling him one of the best prospects in the 2014 class.

For a sophomore, I was very impressed with the tempo he played at. He picked his spots and was able to drive and dish when the lane collapsed on him. He found guys inside as well as kicking the ball back out. His passing ability and decision making are definitely advanced for his age. He had good handles, but his quick first step was usually all he needed to get past a defender. He got into the lane at will this game and I didn't see his mid-range jumper, but apparently that is another strong part of his game. He did hit a three, although he doesnt appear to be a sniper from behind the arc at this point in his career. Defensively, he showed signs of being a good asset. Athletically he is good, but not a freakish athlete. If I were to compare him to a current NCAA player, I'd go with Tim Hardaway Jr.

The Merit of Bench Press Numbers

Ahhh, the bench press. A favorite among casual gym-goers. As a dedicated lifter, the most repetitive question I get is how much I bench. People could care less about more relevant lifts like deadlifting or squatting. I'm not a big guy or much of an athlete, but I can throw up that 185lb bar for more reps than anyone at the combine. It just stems from a lot of work and repetition. I was never a strong guy, but I put in the work. I wish it meant something for my basketball talents. I haven't played much since I started lifting, but I doubt I am any better of a player due to a stronger chest. But maybe...maybe I should start my basketball career up again!

Lets be realistic, though. Bench pressing is a movement that works mainly your chest and triceps. They are pushing muscles. Rarely in basketball does a player need to use all his upper body strength to shove a player. Thats normally a foul. John Chaney may find you useful as a goon on the end up the bench, but your minutes on the court will be short lived.

In the post, holding your position involved your upper body, but the base of your strength comes from your legs. Squatting would be a better indicator for the strength of big men, but I can't imagine agents letting players take part in that act. Too many injury factors are involved for guys who don't squat regularly and too many questions about what makes a proper squat. Do you go down parallel or touch your ass to the ground? Or simply load the bar with way more weight than you can handle and go down a quarter of the way, grunting each time to let everyone know you are the big man on campus.

If JaJuan Johnson or Justin Harper were forced to squat, there would be less people singing praising about their apparent strength right now. Harper and Johnson both put up good numbers on the bench - a combine leading 19 for Harper and 15 for JaJuan. These are two power forwards who have had their strength questioned to a point where they have considered working on their small forward skills. Surely these guys didn't all the sudden become Dwight Howard clones.

No, not at all. I wouldn't count on it. These guys are just two upper classmen who obviously have experience in a strength program. They are used to the motion of benching. Benching isn't exactly a natural measurement of strength. I can count the number of  times a NBA player was laying on his back during a game and had to lift a heavy object off of him on my dog's amputated foot. It s something you can easily improve with a little bit of practice, especially with world class trainers. Its not a end all be all to measuring strength. Olympic lifters don't even incorporate the lift into their routine most of the time. If the NBA wanted to truly test a players strength, we would see players deadlifting and squatting. Of course, that will never happen because of injuries. I'm sure the bench will start to fade out soon as well.

Since the bench numbers are at our disposal, what can we use them for? We can see the guys who stand out as regular weight lifters. Besides Harper and Johnson, it appears Norris Cole, Shelvin Mack, Derrick Williams, Kenneth Faried, Charles Jenkins, Jimmy Butler, Brandon Knight, and Jimmer Fredette all spend significant time in the gym. All hard workers and mostly older guys. It is a good sign that these guys have done everything in their control to help their stock, but it really doesn't mean much. I threw Knight on this list because it is apparent he has started the gym at an early age with 10 reps while being only 176 pounds.

Freshman most of the time struggle at this exercise, proving it is more practice than a natural strength measurement. Kevin Durant famously couldn't bench 185. This year Jereme Richmond followed in his path. Cory Joseph, Josh Selby, and Tristan Thompson all posted single digit numbers (apparently Texas isn't the best place to go if you want to work on your bench).

You also have the natural athletes who don't take weight training seriously. In an interview at the combine, Travis Leslie through me for a loop by saying he doesn't work out his legs. What an incredible statement. This guy is a top-notch athlete and he doesn't even work out his legs? It pains me to think about how much more he could improve athletically if he started a real workout routine. Leslie, even though he is more naturally gifted then all of these guys, only put up 10 reps on the bar. The same as the 30 pound lighter Brandon Knight who has only been in college one year. It doesn't say much for who is stronger - that is still Leslie, but it does show you who is working. While it is intriguing to think about what Leslie can be if he hits the gym, his seemingly content attitude to rely on his natural gifts is concerning.

Kawhi Leonard was another great athlete who only managed a few reps. Leonard churned out 3 measly repetitions at 185. The difference between Leonard and Leslie, though, is Leonard is believed to have a good work ethic. He just hasn't focused on the gym apparently. Once Leonard gets in the NBA and hits the weights, his body projects into something Ron Artest would be proud of. 

In short, benching doesn't translate at all into the NBA. You can see a correlation between hard workers and high bench numbers. You might be intrigued by some of the supposed hard workers with low numbers - might mean they have limited experience in a gym. You can be disappointed in natural athletes with low numbers, but it doesn't mean they are weaker than others with higher numbers. They just aren't used to applying their strength in a controlled environment. All in all, these combine numbers are just a bunch of fodder that can hurt you more than aide you if you actually take much stock into them. Basketball is basketball and there is plenty of tape out there if you want to see if they can play the sport (besides Enes Kanter that is). If you want to try to be some kind of expert, go ahead and break down these numbers and give them some significant meaning. I'll be impressed if it is more than a huge pile of mess....just save your time and pay attention to more meaningful things for prospects' futures.

Reggie Jackson Has a Promise?

It was first speculated by TheKnicksBlog that the Celtics guaranteed Reggie Jackson on May 6th. That must have been a heck of a guess. Shortly there after, Reggie Jackson pulled himself out of both the New Jersey workout and the Chicago pre-draft camp.

A source close to Reggie Jackson's camp was quoted saying, “Danny’s already guaranteed him. He saw a ton of games at BC this year.”

Ainge was apparently at the North Carolina State game where Jackson had 28 points.

When I did my breakdown the Celtics team needs, I counted out them taking another defensive minded point guard since they already have Rondo and Bradley. But then again, Ainge just can't seem to get enough of that type of player.

In 2003, Ainge took another BC guard (Troy Bell) in the first round - only to be traded later that night.

He also has a history with guarantees. He promised Oriene Green in the second round only to have Amir Johnson slip to his draft spot. Even though he wanted Johnson, Ainge honored his word and picked Greene.

I don't blame Ainge for guaranteeing Jackson, whether he fills a need or not. Jackson's value should be a lot higher than #25 and Ainge tried to take advantage of the fact that many scouts didn't get out to see him this year. He would be a complete steal at #25.

Looking at it for Jackson's perspective, it would make sense that if he had a guarantee, it would be from the Celtics. It would keep him local, on a contending team, and surrounded by veteran leaders. There are few teams with the Celtics aura that would cause Jackson to want to place all his chips in one basket. Still, Jackson has a chance to raise his stock much higher if he changes his mind and participates in workouts. Either way, when scouts go back to look at tape, there is a good chance they will still take him above #25 based off game film alone.

Miami Heat Team Needs

Miami Heat


Draft Picks - #31

Team Needs - PG, C, shooting

Draft History Under Pat Riley (picks that were kept)
2010 - Dexter Pittman (#32), Jarvis Varnado (#41), Da'Sean Butler (#42)
2009 - Patrick Beverley (#42), Robert Dozier (#60)
2008 - Michael Beasley (#2), Mario Chalmers (#34)
2007 - Daequan Cook (#21)
2006 - N/A
2005 - Wayne Simien (#29)
2004 - Dorell Wright (#19), Albert Miralles (#40), Matt Freije (#54)
2003 - Dwayne Wade (#5), Jerome Beasley (#33)

Current Projected 2011-12 Roster

PG -
SG - Dwayne Wade/Mike Miller
SF - LeBron James
PF - Chris Bosh/Udonis Haslem
C - Joel Anthony/Dexter Pittman

Whether the Heat bring in some more ring chasers or resign their own, their positions of need will remain the same. The Heat are obviously set at SG, SF, and PF. To complement them, a point guard who can shoot and a big man who can clean up trash are both welcomed. Defense and character also should be present. If they can't re-sign James Jones, they could also go for a wing shooter.

Pat Riley loves his college players. While many times the team with the first pick of the second round chooses an international player, Riley most likely will not. And with his current roster, it is hard to blame him. He needs to find a player who can contribute now and believe it or not, there are some players in the second round that could help the Heat.

The point guard position is strong around this part of the draft. Riley likes PGs with prototypical size who will get after it defensively.

Nolan Smith could be there. As a proven winner, Nolan Smith would be a great fit. He's not the most pure point guard, but in Miami he doesn't have to be. He will fill his role by hitting outside shots and playing defense. He's compared by some to Mario Chalmers.

Shelvin Mack and Ben Hansbrough can bring similar "winners" attitudes and quality shooting to the Heat. Hansbrough is an interesting fit and it wouldn't be the first time Pat Riley went with a Notre Dame point guard (Chris Quinn). Hansbrough is an excellent spot up shooter and would not be intimidated playing with the Big Three. His defense isn't great individually, but the Heat's excellent help defense will help cover for him. He, himself, knows how to play quality help defense.

Malcolm Lee is another option. He is not as polished offensively as Smith or Mack, but he can be a terrific defensive player. Some think of him more as a SG, but he would be perfect as a point next to Wade and LeBron. A consisent three point shot is in the works - if he gets that down, he is the perfect fit for Miami.

I think Iman Shumpert is a notch below these guys, but his stock is rising on some boards out there. It is scary to think of a defense led by three elite athletes like Shumpert, Wade, and LeBron but Shumpert has little offensive game to add. While Lee isnt an offensive player either, he manages to take care of the ball and make good decisions. The same can not be said for Shumpert.

Two other guys to mention are Charles Jenkins and Drew Goudelock. Jenkins is an incredibly efficient scorer who is in-between positions at 6'3. Playing besides LeBron and Wade would ease that transition for him. He is built sort of like Wade, thriving off getting to the hoop with his stocky frame. He also can keep teams honest with his shot and is an ideal teammate. As for Goudelock, he would be viewed as a boring choice for the Heat. He doesn't offer as much potential in terms of starting as any of the other guys, but he has one skill that stands out - his shooting.

With so many options out there at point guard, I truly believe the Heat will end up going that route. The centers available in this area aren't ready to contribute in the upcoming season. There also aren't any big time shooting wings projected early second round either - #31 might be too high for Jon Diebler.

Miami Heat Big Board
1. Ben Hansbrough
2. Malcolm Lee
3. Nolan Smith
4. Shelvin Mack
5. Charles Jenkins
6. Andrew Goudelock
7. Iman Shumpert

Oklahoma City Thunder Team Needs

Oklahoma City Thunder


Draft Picks - #24

Team Needs - Offensive Big, Bench Scoring, Combo Forward

Draft History Under Presti (picks that were kept)
2010 - Cole Aldrich (#11), Tibor Pleiss (#31), Latavious Williams (#48), Ryan Reid (#57)
2009 - James Harden (#3), BJ Mullens (#24), Robert Vaden (#54)
2008 - Russell Westbrook (#4), Serge Ibaka (#24), DJ White (#29), Devon Hardin (#50)
2007 - Kevin Durant (#2)

Current Projected 2011-12 Roster

PG - Russell Westbrook/Eric Maynor/Nate Robinson
SG - James Harden/Thabo Sefolosha/Royal Ivery
SF - Kevin Durant
PF - Serge Ibaka/Nick Collison
C - Kendrick Perkins/Cole Aldrich/BJ Mullens

The Thunder have had a fair amount of success drafting, starting with grabbing their superstar in Kevin Durant. Their main goal since then has been to surround Durant with players that compliment his style. They have gone after high character players that dont mind doing the dirty work, while having the physical profiles to play great defense. Ibaka, Aldrich, Westbrook, and Sefolosha all fit that description. Harden was the perfect "do-it-all" wing to place alongside a superstar. The Thunder now feature a championship caliber roster, with a core that should be in place for years to come.

When looking for team needs, you can cross out a defensive-minded big. With Ibaka, Aldrich, Collison, and Perkins on the team, they are in no need there. However, they could look to find a big man to mix it up with a different kind of offensive game. A big who can space out the floor would be welcomed. Richmond's Justin Harper should draw interest.

They could also look for a combo forward type of big in the mold of Jeff Green. Jereme Richmond, Tobias Harris, Jimmy Butler, Kyle Singler, Nikola Mirotic, and Chandler Parsons all fit that mold.

Richmond provides the most potential, it would be like their pick of BJ Mullens in the late first round a few years ago - all or nothing.

Singler and Butler are more of small forwards who can step in and backup Durant and play solid team basketball. Both have the kind of character the Thunder are built around.

Mirotic may be the most talented, but has contract issues. At #24 though, Mirotic is worth the risk whether he comes over or not. The Thunder have a strong history of taking Euros.

Chandler Parsons probably isn't the best fit of the group. He isnt a scorer, shooter, or defender. He is a facilitator type that the Thunder can do without.

There has been lots of Tobias Harris hype as of late that may carry him out of the Thunder's range. His high character and role playing ability make him an ideal Thunder player, but like Parsons, he isn't exactly what they need. He also has trouble shooting and defending. If he does slip, though, he will have to be considered.

By focusing on defense for so long, the Thunder's roster is a little dry in terms of scoring. With Harden likely moving with the first unit next season, they are going to need a scoring wing to spice up the second unit when playing with Maynor and Sefolosha. There is a chance that either Jordan Hamilton or Marshon Brooks falls to the 24th spot. Brooks has the ridiculous length the Thunder like and is also one of the best scorers in this draft. Hamilton has cleared up some character issues and would be instant offense off the bench.

Thunder Big Board
1. Jordan Hamilton
2. Tyler Honeycutt
3. Nikola Mirotic
4. Justin Harper
5. Marshon Brooks
6. Jereme Richmond
7. Jimmy Butler

Chicago Bulls Team Needs

Chicago Bulls

Draft Picks - #28, #30, #43

Team Needs - Stretch PF, Scoring SG, Backup guard

Draft History Under Paxson (picks that were kept)2010 - N/A
2009 - James Johnson (#16), Taj Gibson (#26)
2008 - Derrick Rose (#1)
2007 - Joakim Noah (#9), JamesOn Curry (#51)
2006 - Tyrus Thomas (#4), Thabo Sefolosha (#13)
2005 - N/A
2004 - Ben Gordan (#3), Luol Deng (#7), Chris Duhon (#38)
2003 - Kirk Hinrich (#7), Mario Austin (#36), Tommy Smith (#53)

Current Projected 2011-12 RosterPG - Derrick Rose/CJ Watson
SG - Ronnie Brewer/Keith Bogans
SF - Luol Deng/Kyle Korver
PF - Carlos Boozer/Taj Gibson
C - Joakim Noah/Omer Asik

The Bulls have a pretty complete roster, which is why rumors of the Bulls trying to package their picks to move up makes sense. The #28 and #30 picks won't get them into the top 20, but it would give them a better chance to get the player they want/ For the Bulls, getting their main guy will probably be their top priority. Losing a first round pick isn't going to be a huge concern for a playoff team already tight on roster space.

Who could they target?

Based on history, the Bulls like winners. Noah, Tyrus Thomas, Hinrich, Duhon, Deng, Ben Gordan, and Derrick Rose all had final four experience. That is an incredible trend that is no coincidence. Players that the Bulls could look at this year that are proven winners are...

Nolan Smith
Shelvin Mack
Kyle Singler
JaJuan Johnson
E'Twaun Moore
David Lighty

They also seem to like combo guards. Guys with great instincts defensively have been targeted as of late too with Tom Thibodeau as the new coach. If a guy like Chris Singleton slips into the twenties, Im sure the Bulls would be actively trying to jump up to grab him. The same thing could be said about Klay Thompson or Jordan Hamilton.

Another player stands out because of a new dimension he could bring to the Bulls. Justin Harper would provide a great shooting option for the Bulls at power forward.

Id imagine their big board would look something like this...

1. Klay Thompson (trade up)
2. Chris Singleton (trade up)
3. Jordan Hamilton (trade up)
4. Marshon Brooks
5. JaJuan Johnson
6. Nolan Smith
7. Justin Harper
8. Shelvin Mack
9. Kyle Singler

Moore and Lighty would be options with the #43 pick along with any of the above that fall. I also hear that they could take Bojan Bogdanovic. One of their longtime scouts, Croatian Ivica Dukan, is the guy who brought Toni Kukoc over and could push for another fellow country man to be picked. This would be a good option to save a roster space and could also be an option at SG longterm.

Boston Celtics Team Needs

This is going to be a series and I'll try to break down every team with a first round pick. If you want to make sure I get to your team, email me at almosttournamenttime@gmail.com or message me on twitter at almostournytime.Boston Celtics

Draft Picks - #25, #55

Position Needs - BPA besides small, defensive minded guards

Draft History Under Danny Ainge (picks that were kept)2010 - Avery Bradley (#19), Luke Harangody (#52)
2009 - Lester Hudson (#58)
2008 - JR Giddens (#30), Bill Walker (#47), Semih Erden (#60)
2007 - Gabe Pruitt (#32), Glen Davis (#35)
2006 - Leon Powe (#49)
2005 - Gerald Green (#18), Orien Greene (#53), Ryan Gomes (#50)
2004 - Al Jefferson (#15), Delonte West (#24), Tony Allen (#25), Justin Reed (#40)
2003 - Marcus Banks (#13), Kendrick Perkins (#27)

Current Projected 2011-12 Roster

PG - Rajon Rondo/Avery Bradley
SG - Ray Allen
SF - Paul Pierce/Jeff Green
PF - Kevin Garnett
C - Jermaine O'Neal

The Celtics could look in a number of directions this draft. They most likely aren't going to solve any of their problems with the draft, so it is best they just add some young, athletic talent to their aging roster. The one thing they don't need is another small, defensive guard. Or a point guard who can't shoot. Ainge still has plenty of faith in Bradley so I doubt he goes that direction. That eliminates Darius Morris. He could use the pick to find a Tony Allen or Big Baby replacement, however. To fill Allen's shoes, they could look at Travis Leslie or Malcolm Lee. Leslie is often compared to Allen, but his shooting isn't a great fit next to Rondo. Lee's offensive skills are better, but he still isn't much different from Avery Bradley.

For a Big Baby replacement, they could look at Tobias Harris, Jordan Williams, Trey Thompkins, or Justin Harper in the first round. Jordan Williams played for former Celtics' coach John Carroll during his AAU days at John Carroll.

Examining Ainge's draft style, he doesn't discriminate with age. He has swung for the fences with high school players Perkins and Green, while taking other young players like Walker and Bradley. With Walker and Bradley, he grabbed two guys that were big time recruits in high school only to have their NBA draft stocks drop down. Ainge has no problem rolling the dice with talented guys, even with character problems. He took JR Giddens and Delonte West for example. He also took an ancient college player in Lester Hudson. In the second round, he has shown a liking to undersized power forwards - Harangody, Gomes, Powe, and Davis. All three high character guys...he seems to put higher stress on character with his second rounders.

Based on this info, he could gamble in the first on Jereme Richmond, Jeremy Tyler, Greg Smith, or Scotty Hopson. He could also hope the best Providence player since Ryan Gomes slips to him at #25 in Marshon Brooks. In the second, there is a chance one of the names mentioned above will still be available. Undersized power forwards aren't in great supply this year, but they could look at Rick Jackson or Jamie Skeen.

Of course, given Ainge's BYU background, the name Jimmer Fredette has to be brought up. In the unlikely case that he is there at #25, you would have to expect the Celtics to take him. Even though he is another undersized guard, his shooting provides something the Celtics haven't had since Eddie House left. He would be a nice complement to Rajon Rondo.

In the end, I see them going after one of the big men first. Nikola Vucevic, Jeremy Tyler, Jordan Williams, Trey Thompkins, Justin Harper, and Greg Smith are all options.

EDIT: There has been speculation that Reggie Jackson received a guarantee from a team and its rumored to be the Celtics. Ainge was at plenty of Boston College games this season and wanted to keep his stock under the radar. It is a good attempt and I expect the Celtics to take him if he's there (Ainge has made promises in the past - he took Oriene Greene over Amir Johnson only because he already had a promise in place with Greene), but I doubt he slips to #25.