Round of 64 Lottery Recap - They Are Who We Thought They Were

The Round of 64, or as I'd rather call it - round one - of the NCAA Tournament is officially over. For many NBA fans, this is the time that they turn to college basketball to start evaluating future pros. For guys like me and the NBA scouts out there, this is just a small piece of the puzzle. Nothing in the past 2 days has changed any prospects stock in much of any way. Instead, its just another chance to watch prospects and see the same things we've been seeing all year. And while there are some things the casual observers have seen that are true - say McLemore or Porter disappearing when their teams needed them, Anthony Bennett's aversion to defense, Shabazz just simply not looking that great, or Marcus Smart struggling to get by defenders - these are things that have been reoccurring themes all season long.

But at the same time, these things are things that I like to point out while watching games to the rest of the Twitter world who may be watching these prospect for the first time. Just key sticking points to continue to drive home, while at the same time hoping to be proven wrong. The tournament is just another - bigger - stage that allows prospect a chance to answer questions. A chance for some of the top guys to make everyone feel better about the 2013 lottery.

Its why I wanted to see Marcus Smart play against Oregon. It gave him another chance to show he could handle small, quick, pesky guard play. Instead, he struggled to play at his tempo and Oklahoma State ended up being upset. Smart had a good game statistically, but he did nothing to show he is a point guard. Smart was forced to give up the ball early in possessions and made most of his plays receiving the ball after curling around a ball screen. He worked well as part of the offense, but he wasn't able to handle the pressure and make plays at the top of the arc. Against a team like Oregon, they will try to force you to speed up and play at their tempo and they were able to speed Oklahoma State up because Smart wasn't able to be effective with the ball in his hands.

Its why I wanted to see Anthony Bennett advance to the next round to face Syracuse. I wanted to see if he would finally stop floating around the arc and decide that he would help his team if he was playing elsewhere. Against a team like Syracuse, that would require him to play near the foul line and make plays from there. However, it was another concern with Bennett that prevented them from even advancing past Cal - his defense. All year long Bennett has backed down against players who aren't afraid to try to push him around. He's also shown little understanding of help defense and has been slow getting in position when he does come from the weakside. His passiveness that Chad Ford mentioned? Thats been Anthony Bennett all season. He's always been reluctant to demand the ball in the post and take advantage of his physical tools. He's always drifted towards the outside.

Its why I wanted to see Shabazz Muhammad play without Jordan Adams in a game that many were doubting his team. It was just one more chance - one more hope - that Shabazz had something more in the tank than what he had shown to date. Something more than just being more physical and determined to score than others. I wanted to see a situation arise where he demanded the ball, sized up his open, and showed the ability to create a shot off the dribble. Even if it was a shot for himself. Yet it was more of the same for Shabazz. Those watching for the first time figured he was affected by the LA Times report - reality is, this is just what a lottery pick of the 2013 NBA Draft looks like.

Its why I wanted to see Otto Porter change the fate of Georgetown's previous tournament failures. But in the end, neither Otto Porter's style or Georgetown's offense allowed him to truly ever dominate a game scoring. And thats perfectly alright and not a surprise at all. Greg Monroe lost in the first round as well as a sophomore and still ended up going 7th overall in the draft. This game didn't change anything for Otto - he's still a top ten pick. He's not a superstar, but he'll be a helluva player for a good NBA team.

Its why I wanted to see Ben McLemore shine. Answer that question of whether or not he can be a go to NBA player. But he didn't take over because - believe it or not, he didn't suddenly develop an array of ball handling moves since the Big 12 Championship game. He's got a long way to go, but he's come a long way at the same time. It doesn't mean he can't be a superstar. It just means this kid is a freshman who is still adjusting to his new found stardom.

Its also why I wanted to see guys like Mike Muscala and Nate Wolters get their chance to steal the show. These guys had the most to gain than anyone, but in the end, its still just one game from them as well.

Mike Muscala struggled against a very good defender in Andrew Smith, something I had said would happen in previous posts. Scouts were hoping that he would advance past Butler and continue on a magical run against bigger schools where he would show that he could post the same numbers against them that he's been posting in the Patriot League all year. Instead, he's out after the first round. But still, there are 4 years worth of tape on this guy and I can tell you that he can play. He didn't earn a first round selection in March, but he certainly didn't lose much based off one performance.

Nate Wolters actually did an admirably job facing Trey Burke, especially considering the level of point guards he is used to guard. Wolters showed that he wasn't shaken by the competition and he fought to the very end. He didn't get many shots to fall and had some trouble with bigger defenders like Tim Hardaway Jr and Glenn Robinson III, but who wouldn't? What Wolters did remind scouts is that his IQ will always be great no matter what the competition is like and he used that IQ to overcome what he lacked in athleticism. He did a fine job helping contain Trey Burke by keeping him in front of him and forcing Burke to drive where Wolters knew he had help defenders. Wolters also was still able to set up shots for teammates with nice passes and even better execution. Did Wolters turn into a national hero by beating Michigan? No. But is he still very much on the radar of scouts? Of course.

I'll have another article tackling some other lesser talked about prospect after the first weekend of games is complete. I'll look at guys like DJ Stephens, Arsalan Kazemi, Allen Crabbe, Colton Iverson, Phil Pressey, Tony Snell, and plenty more.

Upside and Shabazz Muhammad - Its Not An Age Thing

Its been a wild season for Shabazz Muhammad. He started off by injuring his shoulder and missing a month of practice to begin the year. At the same time, he was the victim of a wild goose chase by the NCAA that resulted in him missing the first 3 games of the season. As expected, UCLA and him got off to a rusty start, but the rust never wore off. Both he and UCLA had flashes of greatness, but their season culminated in a Round of 64 loss tonight to Minnesota.

Thats not all that happened today, though. It also turns out that Shabazz Muhammad is a year older than he was believed to be (read the LA Times article here). Shabazz is actually a 20 year old freshman, which sounds bad, but it isn't the real concern. Ben McLemore, Kaleb Tarczewski, Semaj Christon, Jahii Carson, and Anthony Bennett are also 20 year old freshman. Jakarr Sampson will be 20 in a couple of days. Age is just a number and it is less and less relevant the older you get.

But as a high schooler, age does matter. Shabazz made a name for himself by being tabbed as a kid "physically advanced" for his age and molded his game around his strength. Unlike some of the other guys listed, Shabazz received much of his hype because of his advanced build for his age. Its never been his skillset, quickness, or shooting that has drawn an interest in Shabazz. Its been his ability to bully kids his age. Or so we thought they were his age.

This wouldn't be as much of an issue if Shabazz came out this college season and backed up his billing as the top high school recruit in the country against college players. But he didn't. And now that there is an asterisk next to him being the top recruit in his class, its even more of a reason to take this season at face value instead of making excuses for him.

After his injury and suspension, there was a timeframe everyone gave Shabazz to get up to speed. He looked a little slow and rusty and that was expected. But as the season grew on, the same Shabazz from the beginning of the year remained. There he was getting beat off the dribble time and time again and he showed little ability to handle the ball. In terms of passing or making his teammates better, there was none of that. And then there was the fit he threw when Larry Drew II made a game winning shot.

But whether he was 19 or 20, Shabazz was still going to be a top high school recruit and he still did finish second among all NCAA freshman in scoring. His strength is still impressive no matter his age. I do think the age thing makes a difference slightly in terms of his placement in the final high school class rankings, which also takes away a slight amount of hype going into this year. And as far as hype, thats what carried him through much of this season.

Lets forget about the age thing though, thats far from the most important part of the story. Everyone wants to brush off him being a year older and thats fine, sure thats not a huge deal. A good player will be a good player in the end. But its the rest of his background that deserves a second look. The character issues that the LA Times article brings up are more relevant than the age discussion.

To me, his age doesn't limit his upside at all. But the fact that he's been bred to be a NBA player his whole life does. He's had top notch training, coaching, and an environment surrounding him that was designed to help him succeed. His dad made sure he got on the best AAU teams and one of the best high school programs in the country.

He made sure that he was surrounded by players that made him look better. At Bishop Gorman, Shabazz dominated kids with his size and strength while getting plenty of looks in transition. When he went to UCLA, he joined a team with two great unselfish ball handlers, weak rebounding bigs who spread the floor, another incoming freshman who could shoot the lights out, and a coach that caters to his stars. The combination of things helped to hide Shabazz's lack of ball handling skills, outside shooting, and gave him room to operate inside and crash the boards. His coach, Ben Howland, had loss control of previous teams and would let Shabazz do whatever he wanted with no consequences.

With all the elite training he's had and all the high level games he played in high school/AAU, Shabazz has been tested for years. Its not his advanced age that makes his upside more limited, its his advanced background. Shabazz has played in more big games thanks to high school/AAU than most college juniors and seniors. And he's had the correct training, diet, and everything else that NBA players have the whole way through.

Meanwhile, you have a guy like Ben McLemore whose family struggles to put food on the table for him.

You hear questions about McLemore's ability to be a go to guy and people asking why he disappears in big games and forget he's only a freshman. And if you look at McLemore's background you will see that he wasn't a hyped up recruit since his freshman year. He didn't play on a big AAU or high school team until his final season of high school. And even then he still went to a home each night wondering if he would have food to eat. Point is, McLemore is just getting used to all the limelight which shouldn't be a surprise. He's only a freshman. But with all the AAU games and such nowadays, there are freshman that have been built up for college for years. Shabazz is one of them - McLemore is not.

Still through all of that, its been McLemore who has had the better year. McLemore is a guy who was under the radar until late in his high school career. He redshirted at Kansas as he was only a partial qualifier, improved his game even more, and is now at a point where he is a top 5 pick. He's gotten significantly better each of the past 3 or 4 years. The more and more exposure to the game and coaching he is receiving, the better he is getting. Once he gets to the NBA, he will have luxuries of training and dieting that he has never been exposed to that can take his game to an even higher level.

Then you have Shabazz who has been exposed to all of these luxuries for years. He's been considered a top player in his class since he made the varsity team at Bishop Gorman as a freshman. Yet he really hasn't made big strides as a player from year to year. He's still a poor ball handler and his shooting is just now finally starting to get better. His peers have gotten a step closer to him year after year.

I thought it was interesting how they mentioned Shabazz's older sister in the article as well, who signed an endorsement contract in tennis at age 17 and turned pro. She's now 21 and still has advanced any further. She received the same benefits that Shabazz did as a kid and because of this, she appeared to be more prepared at age 17 to turn pro than most kids are her age. But at the same time, she had already received so much professional training as a kid that there just wasn't much upside left. Her parents made sure they squeezed every ounce of talent they could get out of her already.

The same can be said for Shabazz. Just how much more does he have to grow? Just how good is he? Physically, players will continue to catch up to him. Skill-wise, players have already surpassed him. Shabazz's competitiveness, confidence, and will to score will be traits that he can fall back on though. He will always be a great competitor and he will always have a physical edge on players - just not as much as he was when he earned his reputation as the super senior high schooler in the country. 

NCAA Tournament Preview - South Region

ROUND OF 64 GAMES TO WATCH

Michigan vs South Dakota State

When Nate Wolters got hurt and missed the Minnesota game earlier this year, scouts had to be worried that they may not get another chance to see Wolters play against top level competition. A matchup against Michigan doesn't only give himself a chance to prove himself against a team full of NBA level athletes, it gives him a chance to go head to head with the best point guard in the country - Trey Burke. This game will be a must watch with all eyes on that matchup, but Michigan also has Glenn Robinson III and Tim Hardaway Jr who need good tournaments to boost their stocks.

Minnesota vs UCLA

With Jordan Adams out, this is a popular upset pick and I'd say Minnesota should've been the favorite with or without Adams. Regardless, Trevor Mbakwe should be able to feast on the Wear twins inside. Mbakwe is 24 years old and will earn his living crashing the offensive glass and being a bull on defense. He's a solid second round pick who can contribute immediately.

UCLA won't go down easy against Minnesota though as long as Shabazz is in the game. Shabazz shares many qualities of NBA superstars with one of them being his competitive nature. This is his time to shine and you know he will have a big game. Shabazz takes everything personally and you know he will be fired up hearing that they are actually the underdog in this one. A big tourney run could get him back in the running for  a top 2-5 overall selection.

ROUND OF 32

Kansas vs North Carolina

Usually you'd see this matchup in the Elite 8 or Final 4, but UNC has struggled for most of the year until deciding to play small ball. This will especially come in handy against Kansas, who has Jeff Withey to minimize drivers and shutdown opponents big men. The Tar Heels will be happy to stay away from him and jack up 3-pt attempts, where they have two guys in Reggie Bullock and PJ Hairston that are capable of catching fire. A key matchup to watch from a draft perspective is Bullock vs Ben McLemore. Bullock is an excellent defender and can earn himself 1st round consideration if he locks him down. McLemore on the other hand, needs to prevent that from happening. With the type defender Bullock is and McLemore's limited off the dribble game, that could be tough.

James McAdoo against Withey will also be good. Withey has decent lateral quickness, but McAdoo can definitely take advantage of him by drawing him away from the basket. McAdoo is overwhelmed by strength but won't have to deal with that against Kansas.

San Diego State vs Georgetown

If the bottom pod goes chalk, which Im not sure it does, it will be interesting to see how Jamaal Franklin can effect the game against Georgetown. Jamaal Franklin is an extremely tough defender and rebounder who plays all over the court and could end up drawing the assignment of Otto Porter. Porter has been one of the hottest draft prospect as of late and seems to be on his way to a top 5 draft selection. Does Porter give Georgetown that superstar they've been missing in recent tournaments? Georgetown always underperforms because they struggle to generate offense and Porter will eventually be called upon to save them in this tournament at least once.

Patric Young and Trevor Mbakwe battling down low in the Florida/Minnesota game would be a sight to see as well. Mbakwe is more of a man now, but he has more than a few years on Young. Both are currently second rounders.

SWEET SIXTEEN/ELITE EIGHT

If Kansas makes it out against UNC and Michigan survives the VCU gauntlet, they will meet in the Sweet Sixteen. At the shooting guard position, Michigan has the veteran in Hardaway Jr going up against Ben McLemore. On the otherside of the coin, freshman Glenn Robinson III will be matched up against Travis Relaford. Hardaway Jr will put pressure on McLemore to defend while Robinson III's impact could be completely diminished by Relaford's defense. Its a good chance for Robinson to step up and prove he can make some plays off the bounce.

At the bottom of the bracket, a Shabazz vs Otto Porter matchup is possible if UCLA defies the odds. Porter could also end up having to be defended by the ultra-athletic Rodney Williams of Minnesota. Williams is another senior who should be a second round pick.

If Porter/Shabazz do face off, the winner could end up facing Ben McLemore in the Elite Eight. That would be quite a run that features three possible top 5 picks.

The 5 Best Bets in the 2013 NBA Draft

At this point in the season, things are starting to shape up to a clear enough picture that you can see what you a working with in the lottery. For me, there are 5 nearly clear cut starters that will be able to contribute sooner than later. They don't rank as my top 5 picks - but if I had a pick in the top 14, Id certainly look to put myself in position to get one.

1. Nerlens Noel

Why Noel? Noel is certainly very raw, but that doesn't mean you can't project him into a sure-fire starter by taking a small leap of faith. His defensive ability is already for the lights of the NBA which is something you can't say about many other 18 year old freshman centers ever. Right now he relies more on his outstanding physical gifts and motor, but for him, that goes a long way. Noel has been the only stable factor on this UK team all year long. It speaks volumes about his character and his understanding of his role. While Poythress gets benched because of lack of effort and Goodwin faces questions with his shot selection, Noel has been the rock inside for Kentucky all year long. Noel could have easily went down the wrong path at UK with no veteran leadership and varying success so far, but he's been everything you could want in a budding star. He has erased any concerns about who he thinks he is as a player and his work ethic is reportedly good. At this point, that is not only good enough to put faith in him as a NBA starter sometime soon - but also as the #1 overall pick.

2. Marcus Smart

Smart has been ranked as a top 5 pick on this site since November and has cemented his status ever since with strong performances in big games. Smart is not phased by these situations and has been the leader of Oklahoma State's team all season long. His leadership ability was raved about all summer long by coaches while he played for the U18 USA team. His natural leadership ability made him the easy choice for starting point guard and while he is still learning the position, he has shown plenty of potential in making plays for both him and his teammates. Smart also gets after it on the defensive end - making tons of plays and rebounding the ball - and Oklahoma State has gone from the 107th best team defensively last year to a top 20 team now (kenpom.com). Defense, leadership, maturity, excellent size, athleticism, and a good skillset are  a recipe for a player that wont let you down if you select him. And he's only 18 and brimming with potential.

3. Trey Burke

Trey Burke doesn't possess the amount of potential as the first two guys, but he is already a well-rounded and schooled point guard that can contribute right away. I don't expect Burke to go in the top 5 nor should he - but just like Kemba Walker, if Burke is to drop to the bottom of the top 10 he is an easy pick. Burke may end of National Player of the Year this year on top of leading one of the best team's in the country. He acts as both a scorer and playmaker for his teammates and can score in a variety of ways. Burke can push it in transition, finish at the rim, make plays in the halfcourt, and get his shot off the dribble. There simply is no weakness in his game and it is hard to see him not being a factor at the next level.

4. Ben McLemore

I was on McLemore quickly this year just like Smart. Some players you can just tell right away if they have something special to them. For McLemore, his mix of athleticism and shooting ability projects him very well to the next level. McLemore already has a good understanding of curling around screens and keeping himself squared to the basket to convert shots. The look of his jumper has drawn comparisons to Ray Allen. McLemore is also a big time finisher above the rim and with improved ball handling, his slashing game could become a factor as well. Right now, he is a dynamic shooter that actually has proven in college he can shoot - cough Brad Beal - which gives him a home in the NBA.

5. Cody Zeller

Zeller currently ranks lower than the rest of these guys on my rankings and that is mainly due to the lack of upside. But his basketball IQ and skillset make him the most NBA ready big man in this draft. And Zeller already has two brothers with NBA experience and it is hard to see him not being the best one. Zeller is known for his offensive skill in the post and this season his jumper that he has always said to have, is starting to show in games. What might be a surprise is what he can bring defensively for a team. Zeller is often criticize for his wingspan and lack of explosiveness, but most of the game of basketball is played away from the rim or with the idea of preventing a team from getting to the rim - and that is exactly what Zeller does. Zeller understands defense more than any other big man in this draft and is one of the few that can play NBA defense right away.


One more to consider: Otto Porter

2013 NBA Mock Draft

New 2013 NBA Mock. I didn't factor in any international players into the second round because I haven't studied many of them yet. Plus, I'd like to put in as many collegiate players as possible into the mocks. Team needs are loosely taken into account - moreso near the top of the draft.

Players leaving/staying were made at my own discretion and are purely speculation.

1. Charlotte Bobcats - FR Archie Goodwin, SG, Kentucky

The first overall pick is up for grabs. Honestly - try doing a mock draft right now. Each pick in the top 5 you question yourself if the player is worth that high of a selection. At this point, nobody has earned much. Goodwin has outstanding physical gifts and a knack for scoring and getting to the line. The Bobcats will need a scoring wing to pair with MGK if they ever want to win.

2. Cleveland Cavaliers - FR Nerlens Noel, C, Kentucky

Noel has been a mixed bag this year. If you had Anthony Davis level expectations you would be disappointed. If you were like me and had a lot of questions with his game - you should be seeing some reasons to be optimistic. Noel isn't as smart or as tough as Davis on defense, but is still making tons of plays and rebounding the ball. He has shown good energy and better body language than he did in high school. Offensively, he is raw but sports a positive assist to turnover ratio. He can get to the rim but needs to finish stronger and more under control.

3. Toronto Raptors - FR Anthony Bennett, PF, UNLV

Bennett has been dominant his freshman season thus far and will take on a even bigger role with Moser out. He does a good job setting screens and getting open off of them - showing a nice mid-range and deep jumper. He can also face up and get to the rim where he finishes with authority. He shows a post game but needs to get better at utilizing his big frame. Defensively you can say the same thing - he projects as just a solid defender - but has been a great rebounder.

Toronto is ready to end the Bargnani era and Bennett would spell the end of that. Bennett would fit well in their pick and roll offense and give them a different look from it than what Valanciunas presents. Also, Toronto wouldn't mind having a Canadian on their roster - and would hope to add another one the following year (Wiggins).

4. Washington Wizards - SO Cody Zeller, F/C, Indiana

Zeller has been great this year for #1 Indiana, but that has not lifted the concerns about his length and explosiveness. Zeller can look very average at times in the post when he can't create separation. He struggles to get his own shot and finish near the hoop. Zeller's outstanding skill level, footwork, and energy still make him a nice prospect - just not an elite one.

5. Phoenix Suns - 1992 Rudy Gobert, C, Cholet

Gobert just recently announced that he would like to play in the NBA next year. He's a project but has the size and athleticism to turn out to be a good one.

6. Sacramento Kings - FR Marcus Smart, PG, Oklahoma State

Smart is one of my favorite players in this draft and a leader who can step in and turn the culture of a team around. He possesses natural leadership skills, great athleticism and size, and a advanced understanding of how to change speeds. Smart is a stat stuffer who helps out in all areas of the game and has the ability to be either a great scorer or facilitator at the point guard spot.

7. New Orleans Hornets - FR Shabazz Muhammad, SG, UCLA

Muhammad has struggled early on and needs to turn it up soon. He had an injury and missed practice so its understandable, but as the season goes on that excuse will go away. And the UCLA excuse doesnt work for me - it was much more evident it was the system that was holding back Westbrook and Holiday. For Muhammad its his lack of ball handling skills and ability to create separation. He has to work very hard for each bucket and relies too much on his strength and energy. Defensively, he looks slow and out of shape.

8. Detroit Pistons - SO Otto Porter, SF, Georgetown

Porter has been great for Georgetown and his most impressive revelation for his stock so far has been his shooting ability. His high IQ, defense, passing skills, and toughness were known - but his silky smooth jumper from the mid-range area has now started progressing into a solid 3-pt shot. For a guy with average explosiveness for a lottery wing, his ability to knock down the jumper is crucial for his offensive success.

9. Orlando Magic - SO Michael Carter-Williams, PG, Syracuse

Carter-Williams is the most dynamic player on the board at this point and offers a lot to be excited about. He also offers a lot of questions. Is he mature and a good enough leader to run the point? Can he get into the paint and finish with contact? How will he defend outside of the 2-3 zone? Will he fare better than the last couple of Syracuse players? His height is helping mask a lot of his weaknesses at this point. I still like him though and as Syracuse plays tougher opponents the answers to these questions will become more clear. The one concern I dont have that most actually do is his shooting - he has always had a good touch and its starting to come along the past few games.

10. Houston Rockets - FR Glenn Robinson III, SF, Michigan

The hype on Glenn Robinson III hasn't gotten rolling yet with him stuck next to two ball dominant guards. And perhaps that is best for him - like the rest of the SFs in this draft, GRIII isn't a guy who wants to be "the guy". He's perfectly content playing his role - knocking down jumpers, rebounding, and playing defense. The thing is, he has been incredibly efficient doing it so far as a freshman on one of the best teams in the nation. You can easily carve out a long NBA career doing what he is done so far.

11. Philadelphia 76ers - FR Ben McLemore, SG, Kansas

McLemore has already stepped into the main scoring role for the Jayhawks and he hasn't even started hitting threes yet. McLemore does a great job getting open for shots off screens and sneaks in for backdoor alley-oop plays every now and then to show off his athleticism. He has the size, athleticism, and the shooting ability for the shooting guard position. He is kind of like Bradley Beal last year in the sense that it is tough to go wrong with him. His floor seems like a solid starter and he offer the potential to be one of the better shooting guards in the game. He could end up going in the top 5.

12. Portland Trailblazers - SR CJ McCollum, G, Lehigh

CJ McCollum has lived up to his senior hype in the scoring column - already going off for 30+ points a couple of times. He gets good separation for his jumpshot with his crossover and has silky smooth body control when going up for his shot. McCollum is a great shooter and projects as instant offense off the bench at the next level. He isn't the athlete that Portland's Damian Lillard is and it prevents him from being the playmaker Lillard is. I don't think McCollum will make the full transition to point guard, but will be able to run it off the bench. He is a student of the game and a very hard worker.

13. Dallas Mavericks - FR Alex Poythress, F, Kentucky

With his near 70% field goal shooting and 0.6/3 assist to turnover ratio, its clear just looking at the stats that Poythress is much more of a power forward right now. Poythress is able to defend multiple positions well which is a big part of his appeal and if you can defend the perimeter like he can then there is hope that he can make the transition on offense. Even if he doesn't, Poythress has enough size to be a combo forward in the NBA and the attitude and work ethic that will keep him in the league. He's not a top 5 pick though. I don't see it in his skillset and its definitely not his type of mentality. He went to Kentucky so he didn't have to be "the guy" - Poythress prefers to be a role player.

14. Los Angeles Lakers (to Phoenix) - SO James Michael McAdoo, PF, North Carolina

Everyone is well aware of McAdoo's struggles this year in his new role. The biggest problem with him has been his strength. He is getting pushed around inside, has been unable to get under control, and it is causing a lot of turnovers. He isn't the physical presence North Carolina needs him to be. He still shows good upside on offense thanks to his ability to move without the ball, his quickness, and his soft touch. If he gets stronger, I also think he will be able to start showing a forming post game. Defensively he is smart and is able to draw charges with his quick feet, but doesn't prove to be much of a threat. And he gets pushed around on the glass.

15. Indiana Pacers - SO Trey Burke, PG, Michigan

Trey Burke has followed up his impressive freshman season with another one so far - leading Michigan to an undefeated record. Burke has drawn comparisons to a poor man's Chris Paul and its accurate. He is a balanced point guard, able to both distribute and score. He has a high BBIQ and takes the team and the game on his shoulders. He understands Michigan's complex offense so well. He can overdribble at times and does need to be more of a factor on defense. The only thing holding him back from a top ten selection is his athleticism. And averaging a combined 4.7 rebounds/blocks/and steals brings up some concerns among stat junkies.

16. Milwaukee Bucks - SO Alex Len, C, Maryland

The hype around Alex Len right now reminds me of the Kosta Koufos hype when he first got to Ohio State. Legit seven footer with offensive skills, blocks shots, can hit the jumper and score with his back to the basket. Its an intriguing set of skills for sure, but the most important factor for centers in today's NBA is defense. That is how you get on the court. Len is a good shot blocker (he is more explosive than Koufos), but lacks an understanding and commitment on the defensive end. Besides Kentucky, Maryland hasn't played in any big games so Len is still living off the hype from his first game. But come ACC play he will have to earn the top 5 billing analysts are placing on him.

17. Boston Celtics - SO Tony Mitchell, F, North Texas

I just wrote about Mitchell and this part of the draft would be a good spot for him. His production hasn't been the best up to this point. He might be the best athlete in the draft, but seems to have false beliefs that he is a small forward. If he commits to power forward, he can be very good. Its a high risk/high reward situation in the lottery. It this spot, it would be all reward.

18. Minnesota Timberwolves (to Phoenix) - SR Mason Plumlee, F/C, Duke

Wrote this recently - "There is part of me that wants to rank Plumlee lower, but its tough with the season he is having. He very well could be National Player of the Year this season and his stock should start soaring. It won't surprise me if he ends up in the lottery. I don't want to split hairs though with his ranking - my main point is if I were a GM, I'd spend my top 20 pick somewhere else. I'd much rather take Jeff Withey outside the top 20 then spend a top 20 pick on Mason. Nothing against him, he's having a great season, I just question how it all translates to the next level. His offense is a lot of face up looks, but he can't shoot. He relies on the drive, but its going to be hard to keep NBA defenses honest if he can't consistent hit the 15 footer. And his post game is still based on his athleticism. And he doesn't even establish deep post position enough to take advantage of it."

19. Utah Jazz - JR Ray McCallum, PG, Detroit

McCallum is an underrated prospect. CJ McCollum gets all the hype because of his scoring, but all Ray McCallum has done this season is prove he can suddenly switch from a point guard to shot hunter to provide his team with much needed scoring. He isn't as good at it as McCollum but McCallum also isn't a combo guard. He is a pure point who has proven he knows how to lead a team and create shots for his teammates. McCallum looks like a sure bet to be at least a top backup point guard, but could easily turn into a solid starter.

20. Denver Nuggets - SR Jeff Withey, C, Kansas

Withey is leading a suffocating Kansas defense. I wrote this recently -

"The second best senior? It sounds weird, but Withey has an elite ability to affect games on the defensive end that should make him a good player in the pros. He moves so fluidly for a 7 footer and gets off the court quickly. He has been Kansas's best player so far, even becoming more of a threat on offense. Kansas can't get much penetration so Withey has been a key factor on offense - being relied upon as a part of their inside/out game. He has shown quick moves in the post and has been more aggressive this season. Withey isn't the most talented senior, but he might be the surest bet to walk onto a NBA team and contribute right away."

21, Golden State Warriors (to Utah) - SR Jackie Carmichael, PF, Illinois State

Jackie Carmichael has been a huge revelation to me this year. He has a prototypical body for a four man and is more explosive than he looks. He's actually extremely nimble on his feet and does a great job defending pick and rolls on the perimeter. He plays the game offensively like a 10 year NBA vet - setting good screens, showing great patience in the post, hitting from mid-range, and cleaning the offensive boards. He is a good passer and has a post game. At this point, it wouldn't be crazy to call him the most NBA ready power foward in the draft.

22. Brooklyn Nets - JR Andre Roberson, PF, Colorado

Roberson has looked bad this year trying to show his perimeter skills and that is taking away all the attention from what he can do. He is still posting great rebounding numbers and generating a ton of blocks and steals. He isn't a small foward, but would that have even been the best fit for him? He can be a poor man's Marion off the bench.

23. Chicago Bulls - JR Gorgui Dieng, C, Louisville

Dieng has been out the last month with a broken wrist and he has been missed - not only for his great defense, but for his offense. Dieng is a big help facilitating the offense from the post and had flipped his turnover ratio upside down from previous years. He should be back in the next couple of weeks.

24. Atlanta Hawks - SO BJ Young, SG, Arkansas

Young has proven to be one of the better one on one players in college basketball when it comes to getting to the rim. He has excellent body control and footwork on his way to the rim and is able to manipulate his way through defenders and hang in the air to finish with contact. While his ability to get to the basket and finish is elite, his shooting has taken a step back this year and he isn't getting a chance to show his ability to run the point guard in Arkansas' 3 guard offense.

25. Memphis Grizzlies (to Minnesota) - JR Reggie Bullock, G/F, North Carolina

With North Carolina struggling, it is easy to sour on their top prospects and place the blame on them. And you can knock Bullock for his aggressiveness - only getting to the line 1.4 times a game. But that isnt his game and isnt what he will be expected to do in the NBA. He cant carry UNC, but in terms of doing the little things, he continues to show elite qualities of a role player. His 3-pt shot is hitting at an all time high, as he's making 43% from behind the arc, and it looks great coming out of his hand. His assists and steals are also up. He could be an immediate contributor to a playoff team.

26. Miami Heat (to Cleveland) - SO LeBryan Nash, SF, Oklahoma State

LeBryan Nash is an interesting player. He struggled last year trying to show off his perimeter skills and has made it a point this year to play more inside and get to the free throw line. He's getting to the line nearly 2.5 times per game more than his freshman year. Operating inside of 18 feet, he has looked nearly unstoppable and has shown a variety of different ways to hurt the opposition. He has also shown solid court vision but his A/TO is hurt by his propensity to force things and take bad shots. Defensively, Nash has a reputation as a stopper but struggles to keep quicker perimeter players in front of him. He might be stuck in between positions like an Al Thornton type but if he blossoms, he could be the next Caron Butler.

27. Los Angeles Clippers - JR Victor Oladipo, G/F, Indiana

Oladipo has been arguably Indiana's best player this season while turning himself into some kind of folk hero. His defense is something that can't be captured in a scouting report - nor can his energy. He has Tony Allen-type defense skills. And his defense has turned into quick offense for him, enabling him to get out on the break for big thunderous dunks while showcasing his elite athleticism. He is shooting a ridiculous 65% from the field this year - up from just 47% the year before. I predicted a breakout year from Oladipo, but the season he is having is something special.

28. New York Knicks - JR Patric Young, F/C, Florida

After two subpar years, Patric Young has started to show some signs of life this season - upping his rebound totals and finally blocking some shots. Still, he needed a early season benching to jumpstart him and after last night's game, it looks like he could be starting to get too comfortable again. He has a NBA body and moves his feet well defensively, so he should at least be a solid big off the bench in the league. I highly doubt at this point he will ever become anything more.

29. San Antonio Spurs - 1994 Dario Saric, F, Cibona Zagreb

Saric's season is just getting underway.

30. Oklahoma City Thunder - JR Mike Moser, F, UNLV

Mike Moser got off to a shaky start this year before getting hurt. It was an adjustment for him to get used to playing with Anthony Bennett and when he comes back this time, he will also have to adjust to playing with Khem Birch. Bennett has taken over as the star of the Rebels and Birch will play center, so Moser will have a chance to focus on playing the perimeter.

31. Charlotte Bobcats (to Oklahoma City) - JR CJ Leslie, PF, North Carolina State

Leslie continues to be a mixed bag for the Wolfpack, looking like a guy who will never grow to "get it". This is his junior year and at this time, he should be dominating competition with his athleticism alone. Yet that hasn't been the case as NC State has been a disappointment and Leslie is stuck in neutral. He still lacks any reliable way to score on offense and doesn't play smart defense. And he has failed to provide any kind of leadership on a NC State team begging for a leader - he instead plays more like a freshman than Purvis, Lewis, or Warren.

32. Cleveland Cavaliers - SR Elijah Johnson, PG, Kansas

I was so busy trying to point out Elijah Johnson's weaknesses over the summer - saying he won't be able to be "the guy", he isn't aggressive, he doesnt get to the rim - to recognize his strengths and what he can bring to a team. Elijah Johnson is a shot maker and also has a great physical profile on defense. He is excellent off the catch and shoot once he gets his feet get set. I still question his ability to take advantage of his defensive attributes, as he has never shown good awareness. But this season that hasn't been as apparent with him guarding the oppositions point guard more. His main trouble was defending off ball and understanding how to see "ball" and "man" at all times. Johnson really needs to get to the line more though - 1.4 times a game won't cut it. He's perfectly capable.

33. Toronto Raptors - JR Jamaal Franklin, SG, San Diego State

Franklin is a guy who coaches will love one second and hate the next. He tries to do everything on offense even though he is limited by his ball handling abilities. He turns it over a lot and takes a lot of bad shots. But he also works very hard, rebounds like a big man, and can score in bunches. He is a highlight reel finisher and is a streaky outside shooter. Right now, he needs to get his 3-pt% back up because that will need to be a big part of his game in the NBA. Being a 23% 3-pt shooter will have him averaging 20ppg in the D-League real quick.

34. Washington Wizards - SR Michael Snaer, SG, Florida State
35. Phoenix Suns - SR Brandon Paul, G, Illinois
36. Sacramento Kings - SR Rodney Williams, F, Minnesota
37. New Orleans Hornets (to Philadelphia) - JR Phil Pressey, PG, Missouri
38. Detroit Pistons - JR Tim Hardaway Jr, SG, Michigan
39. Orlando Magic (to Cleveland) - SO Jarnell Stokes, PF, Tennessee
40. Houston Rockets - SO Myck Kabongo, PG, Texas
41. Philadelphia 76ers - JR Deshaun Thomas, SF, Ohio State
42. Portland Trailblazers (to Denver) - SR Richard Howell, PF, North Carolina State
43. Dallas Mavericks - SR Nate Wolters, PG, South Dakota State
44. Los Angeles Lakers - SR Erick Green, G, Virginia Tech
45, Indiana Pacers - JR Aaron Craft, PG, Ohio State
46. Milwaukee Bucks - SR James Ennis, SF, Long Beach State
47. Boston Celtics (to Portland) - JR CJ Wilcox, SG, Washington
48. Minnesota Timberwolves (to Portland) - SO Rakeem Christmas, F/C, Syracuse
49. Utah Jazz - JR Russ Smith, G, Louisville
50. Denver Nuggets (to Phoenix) - JR CJ Fair, F, Syracuse
51, Golden State Warriors (to Orlando) - SR Robert Covington, F, Tennessee State
52. Brooklyn Nets (to Minnesota) - JR Sean Kilpatrick, SG, Cincinnati
53. Chicago Bulls - JR Lorenzo Brown, PG, North Carolina State
54. Atlanta Hawks - SO Ryan Harrow, PG, Kentucky
55. Memphis Grizzlies - SR Ryan Kelly, PF, Duke
56. Miami Heat - SR Lawrence Bowers, PF, Missouri
57. Los Angeles Clippers (to Detroit) - SR Jamelle Hagins, F/C, Delaware
58. New York Knicks (to Washington) - SR Kenny Boynton, G, Florida
59. San Antonio Spurs - SR Trevor Mbawke, PF, Minnesota
60. Oklahoma City Thunder (to Minnesota) - SR Solomon Hill, SF, Arizona

Top Undrafted:

Durant Scott
DeWayne Dedmon
Elias Harris
Jack Cooley
Amath M'Baye
Reggie Johnson
Mike Muscala
Gregory Echenique
Brock Motum
Kenny Kadji

McLemore Takes off in win against Chattanooga

Highlights of Ben McLemore vs Chattanooga - both videos are different

I wrote after the Michigan State game that with Elijah Johnson at the point guard, Ben McLemore will have a chance to step up as a much needed playmaker for the Jayhawks down the road. With Kansas down as much as 10 points to Chattanooga in the first half, McLemore decided that the time to step up was now.

I'll let the videos do most of the talking, but McLemore was outstanding last night. He was excellent at getting open, moving without the ball and around screens to get multiple open looks on jumpers. He also made some great cuts to the basket for the alley-oop finishes. I'd say his movement without the basketball stood out the most about his game.

McLemore played much more mature than a regular freshman, making some smart skip passes and driving and kicking for a few more assists. And he definitely knows how to get to the foul line - he got there ten times against Chattanooga and made his last 5 after missing 3 of his first 5.

Defensively, McLemore brought intensity throughout the game, even early on when the rest of the team was going through the motions. He has solid length and a strong frame used to handle contact. He gambled for steals on multiple occasions and only came away with one, so he still needs to become more disciplined. McLemore also rebounded the ball very well.

Appling, Johnson Handed Their First Major Test

As I was profiling point guards this summer, Appling and Johnson were two guys that were tough to get a read on. Appling was technically the point guard for MSU's team last year, but heeded playmaking duties to senior Draymond Green who is now on the Warriors. Elijah Johnson also took a back seat to a current NBA player, the Nets' Tyshawn Taylor, and Johnson was forced to play mostly shooting guard up until this season.

This was the year for both of them to step up and take the keys to their respective offenses. Neither had shown much playmaking ability up until this point and I wondered just how much they had in them. For the first half of this game, the question went unanswered. Appling was quiet while Johnson showed physical dominance and scored, although he failed to get into the lane. This was much like last year's Johnson who settled in as a spot up shooter and a havoc in transition. Johnson was looking like the better player if only for his greater physical gifts, while Appling looked rather pedestrian.

When the second half rolled along though, Appling was in the drivers seat. He went coast to coast on a lay-up that seemed to fire him and and after that him and backcourt mate Gary Harris went on a run where the scored 14 of their teams 16 points. Appling followed that lay-up with another one which he beat Withey and Johnson off a pick and roll. He also connected on a few rainbow threes, showing much better arc on his shots than his linedrive shot he featured last season. Appling wanted the ball at the end of the game and was taking over and hit a particularly clutch three in which he displayed an ankle breaking crossover move. Up by one with a minute left, Appling pulled up for a mid-range jumper where it seemed he was fouled by Johnson, but no call was made. Next possession, he got a one on one matchup with Withey where he showed a saavy hesitation move before weaseling his way between defenders to get the layup off. Picture perfect.

Michigan State got the win 67-64 and Appling had 19 while only missing three shots. His nemesis Johnson had 16 points while shooting a much worse 6-15 from the field. He struggled making plays much of the game and had 2 assists compared to 4 turnovers. Johnson doesn't capitalize on his physical tools as much as he should. He picks up his dribble too much at the first sign of defensive pressure and is always looking to pass before he has even created any kind of open look for a teammate. With the game ending though, Johnson was thrusted into the position of go-to-guy and he actually did get into the lane to draw a foul and sink the free throws. The next possession he attacked the rim against and nearly hit a floater. Those might have been his only two halfcourt drives all game.

I say he needs to be more aggressive, but a better alternative may be allocating the ball more to redshirt freshman Ben McLemore. McLemore had more assists than Johnson and just two less points even though he took 8 less shots. He didn't do much ball handling, but that should slowly change to the point where McLemore and Johnson are interchangeable. McLemore was the best pro prospect on the floor.